How many watches did Apple sell last quarter?

Analyst’s estimates range all the way from 1 million to 4 million.

To headline writers it’s a disappointment, a let down, a bust, a flop.

To Apple Watch owners, it’s a hit. According to the largest survey to date, wristly.co‘s April 2016 report, 93% of respondents describe themselves as either satisfied or very satisfied.

To analysts with their eyes on iPhone sales, it’s an afterthought. Which, along with the fact that actual sales are closely guarded Apple secret, may explain the absurd range of the analyst’s estimates. The space between 1 million and 4 million is the largest gap, by percent, I’ve ever seen for an Apple device.

Sticking with the average—2.3 million—here’s what estimates for the last five quarters look like:

Not seeing the graphics? Try the website. 

UPDATE: On Thursday, IDC published its below-consensus estimate: 1.6 million Apple Watches shipped in the June quarter. See Apple’s share of a shrunken smartwatch pie.

Here are the individual analyst’s estimates, pros in blue, indies in green. Unless Tim Cook changes his no-transparency policy, won’t get a firm number next Tuesday. But the size of the “Other” category where Apple hides the Watch revenue may tell us something about who was closest to the mark.

Screen Shot 2016-07-20 at 9.19.18 AM

Click to enlarge.

Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide’s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.

7 Comments

  1. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    To my knowledge the Apple Watch is the only digital wearable to generate billions of dollars in revenue. Although I believe Apple’s initial marketing effort for the device – attempting to create a luxury device line – was overly ambitious from the start, it in no way diminishes the success of the product.

    Looking at the year-over-year increase in Other Products revenue for Apple beginning in the June quarter of last year, it’s clear the company has sold millions of watches. However, the Apple Watch line is due for an update and I expect the second iteration of the product to be more successful than the first release which continues in the market today. I expect sales in the June quarter to evidence it’s time for the release of the next version of the Apple Watch.

    0
    July 20, 2016
  2. George Providaked said:
    Replacing 100-200 Million PC per year with 20-25 million Macs in year 40 and 500 Million – 1000 Million Cell Phones per year with 200-300 Million iPhones is pretty good in year 9. And replacing 20-50 million “premium” watches with 10-30 million Apple Watches is pretty amazing in year 1. The potential like iPhone 2.5 and 3G didn’t emerge until 3GS. Similar stories apply to iTunes, iPad, and iPod.

    Therefore, some perspective is needed. We are not talking about decades merely years as Apple Watch evolves. So far all the available evidence: indirect sales data reported by Apple, self-selected group user surveys, depression in non-Apple watch sales, etc., while each is not definitive collectively says this is a product on track for a bright future.

    2
    July 20, 2016
  3. John Kirk said:
    I think the combination of:

    1) The new watch software
    2) A new watch design; and
    3) Leaving their rookie year and moving to their second year of production

    …should make the sale of Apple watch increase dramatically this fall and winter quarter.

    1
    July 21, 2016

Leave a Reply