Analyst’s estimates range all the way from 1 million to 4 million.
To headline writers it’s a disappointment, a let down, a bust, a flop.
To Apple Watch owners, it’s a hit. According to the largest survey to date, wristly.co‘s April 2016 report, 93% of respondents describe themselves as either satisfied or very satisfied.
To analysts with their eyes on iPhone sales, it’s an afterthought. Which, along with the fact that actual sales are closely guarded Apple secret, may explain the absurd range of the analyst’s estimates. The space between 1 million and 4 million is the largest gap, by percent, I’ve ever seen for an Apple device.
Sticking with the average—2.3 million—here’s what estimates for the last five quarters look like:
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UPDATE: On Thursday, IDC published its below-consensus estimate: 1.6 million Apple Watches shipped in the June quarter. See Apple’s share of a shrunken smartwatch pie.
Here are the individual analyst’s estimates, pros in blue, indies in green. Unless Tim Cook changes his no-transparency policy, won’t get a firm number next Tuesday. But the size of the “Other” category where Apple hides the Watch revenue may tell us something about who was closest to the mark.
Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide’s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.