How many Macs did Apple sell last quarter?

Get ready for the third year-over-year decline in a row.

I’m filing this from Cleveland, where there’s a lot going on. I’ll keep it brief.

Nobody’s expecting much from the Mac this time around. IDC and Gartner have already filed their estimates:

  • IDC: 4.42 million, -8.3% year over year
  • Gartner: 4.56 million, -4.9% year over year

The analysts we’ve heard from so far are even more pessimistic.

  • Average: 4.35 million, -9.4%

Bottom line:  The third year-over-year decline in a row. The Mac can usually be counted on to outgrow the rest of the PC industry, even in a bad quarter. Not this time.

Here’s the bar chart of Mac sales by quarter, highlighting the year over year comparison. The last entry is the average of the analysts I’ve heard from.

And here are the individual analyst’s estimates, with the pros in blue and the indies in green. We’ll find out who was closest to the mark after the markets close on July 26, a week from today.

Screen Shot 2016-07-19 at 12.03.57 PM

Click to download.

Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide’s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.

Links not working? Try the website.

8 Comments

  1. George Providaked said:
    These pronouncements by IDC, et al, would be a lot more interesting if the track record were included.

    For example
    IDC Jul 2016 Estimate Mac Sales
    IDC Jul 2015 Estimate of Mac Sales and Actual Sales reported by Apple
    IDC Jul 2014 Estimate of Mac Sales and Actual Sales reported by Apple
    IDC Jul 2013 Estimate of Mac Sales and Actual Sales reported by Apple
    IDC Jul 2012 Estimate of Mac Sales and Actual Sales reported by Apple

    In other words, based on past performance what is the uncertainty of the estimates, for example IDC estimates 4.42 Million with an uncertainty range of 5%. I realize in the case of IDC and Gartner the numbers are not exactly sold Macs as Apple reports, but close enough and adjustable. The Analysts estimates should be straight forward to track past performance and associated uncertainties.

    Personally, I think this “accountability” would put perspective in numbers with 3 digits of precision, 4.42????, as well as encourage reporting 50% confidence intervals of estimates as a matter of best practice.

    4
    July 19, 2016
    • Alan Birnbaum said:
      Basically IDC guesstimates of Mac sales are ‘not enough’.

      They basically have the same batting average of a typical Major league baseball player
      ( the all-time league average is between .260 and .275)

      0
      July 19, 2016

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