"Shared mobility" will be bigger than the iPhone, says Katy Huberty, and Apple has bet the company on it.
Imagine an Uber fleet of self-driving Teslas. That's where the automobile industry is headed, according to a team of analysts led by Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley's chief Apple watcher.
They call it "shared mobility." Even before Apple's $1 billion investment in Didi Chuxing, the Uber of China, Apple by Morgan Stanley's estimate had spent nearly $5 billion in incremental R&D on some kind of auto/auto services project.
That $5 billion estimate is the starting point of the most detailed analysis I've seen of Apple's pivot from smartphones to smartcars. Like Neil Cybart's Above Avalon analysis two weeks ago and Horace Dediu's UBS interview this week, Morgan Stanley is convinced that this is Apple's next big thing.
From today's report:
- The shared mobility market is huge, worth $2.6 trillion by 2030 (26% share of 20 trillion total miles driven at 50 cents a mile)
- It's right up Apple's alley, representing the intersection of three disruptive forces: electric, autonomous, shared vehicles
- Apple is vastly outspending the major auto makers—10 times Tesla and 20 times the rest of the industry.
- By 2030, Apple's shared mobility revenue could be $400 billion, more than the rest of Apple generates today ($234 billion)
To give you a sense of the scale of things, here's an interactive chart that compares Apple total R&D spending to that of the major automakers.
Not seeing the graphic? Try the website.