Apple bar chart of the day

Watch the analysts’ March quarter revenue estimates shuffle themselves like a deck of cards.

The bad news that’s coming next week—the first year-over-year decline in iPhone sales—was telegraphed to the investment community back in January, when Apple warned that fiscal Q2 2016 revenues were likely to come in between $50 billion and $53 billion.

That’s a ton of revenue, but it’s less than the $58 billion Apple collected in the same quarter last year. And it seemed to confirm what the Asian supply chain had been whispering for weeks: iPhone 6s sales had slowed and parts were building up in inventory.

Overnight, most of the analysts who track Apple had issued new revenue estimates. By now, they all have.

I’ve been keeping track of the trackers, and when you order their before-and-after estimates from largest to smallest, you can almost imagine the analysts snapping to attention.

Below: The individual analysts’ estimates, Wall Street professionals in blue, independents in green.

(Don’t get the effect? Go to the website.)


  1. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    At present Apple is valued as the maker of the iPhone only. In my view among the positives missing from today’s valuation is the double-digit growth in the company’s services revenue segment. This segment alone will generate in the range of $25 billion in revenue this fiscal year.

    Little mention is made in the financial press of the nearly 16% reduction in the fully diluted share count from the peak in the fourth quarter of FY2012 through the first quarter of FY2016 nor is much attention given to the rising dividend now at $2.08 per share.

    Apple currently pays out less than 25% of net income in dividends while at today’s closing price offers about a 1.95% per annum dividend yield. Apple is expected to announce next Tuesday an expansion of the current $140 billion share repurchase program and an increase to the quarterly dividend.

    Apple’s massive cash position, rising R&D expenses, ability to amply fund from operations all of the company’s capex needs while returning tens of billions of capital to shareholders each year in my view just isn’t reflected in today’s low multiple valuation.

    April 23, 2016

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