The analysts’ estimates range from 8 million to 12 million.
Apple will report iPad sales next week and they don’t look great. The consensus among the analysts we’ve heard from is that unit sales are headed for their ninth consecutive year-over-year decline.
The 12.9-inch iPad Pro, which shipped last November, didn’t turn the tide in Q1. And its 9.7-inch sibling shipped on March 31, too late to make it into next week’s results.
So in the chart below it still looks like peak iPad passed two years ago.
Based on the average estimate of 31 analysts, the Street expects Apple to report sales of just under 10 million units, down 21% from the same quarter last year.
Low estimate: 8 million from Cowan’s Timothy Arcuri
High estimate: 12 million from BTIG’s Walter Piecyk
We’ll find out who was closest to the mark after the markets close on Monday, April 25.
But first, one chart and one spreadsheet:
The analysts’ individual estimates, pros in blue, indies in green.
Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide’s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.
Quarterly iPad unit sales have been shrinking a fairly consistent 20% on a YOY basis. With new iPad Pros selling now, I still seen a decline YOY but perhaps it’s only 10% instead of 20%. The new iPad Pro 9.7″ launched at the end of the March quarter, so I’m not expecting true growth in unit terms..
The iPad is an incredible device. I still use my 2nd generation, although the battery no longer holds a charge for as long as it used to, so it’s about time for a replacement.
Yes, they have “peaked” in sales, but there are two good reasons for that. First, they are more akin to a portable computer than to a pocket computer like a smaller smartphone. And that includes the typical long replacement times we see with portable computers and desktop computers. Second, iPads, like other large screen portable devices, got cannibalized by the 6+ series iPhone. Of course, in the case of the iPad, it was a case of self-cannibalization by Apple.
All of this plays right into Apple’s concept of a “full stable” of products, from high end desktop to Apple watch. It’s a brilliant strategy which, of course, means it’s envied by it’s competitors and utterly ignored in the blogosphere. Meanwhile, Apple just chugs along, making incredible margins and maintaining the best customer satisfaction in the industy.
Sacto Joe
There’s a pattern in the iPad sales that I just noticed. First, in fy 2013, total IPad sales peaked at 71.056 million. The next fiscal year (’14) came close, at 67.977 million iPads sold. Last year, predictably, iPad sales tanked as they were self-cannibalized by the iPhone 6+, dropping to 54.856 million.
So from the production P.O.V., Apple matched demand in 2013.
Now look at yearly fy Q2 as shown in the charts. It NOSEDIVES in fy Q2 ’14 – exactly as one might expect if Apple were able to match demand in the previous holiday quarter, leaving no pent up demand for Q2.
Ask yourself where we have seen that pattern of a huge dropoff in fy Q2 sales before. If you came up with fy Q2 2016, then go to the head of the class!
Apple mached demand for iPhones in fy Q1 2016 for the first time ever, and not coincidencally (IMHO), fy Q2 2016 is heading for the basement – just like the iPad did in 2014 when it also matched demand in the previous holiday quarter.
In short, PED’s iPad chart validates my theory that the recent sell-down of AAPL is a vast over-reaction to the perfectly normal result of Apple finally achieving parity between production and holiday demand.
First screen: Smartphones. There will be 6 billion smartphones for 7 billion people in 2020.
Second screen: tablets, 2-in-1’s, notebooks, desktops. Anyone who needs a second screen will choose 1 of those. Only a very few will choose to own 3 screens.
The tablet is in a declining market sector. But it is much beloved. I think it persevere.
Actually, more than a few will own three screens, if you count the TV as a “screen”….
Two questions I have about the iPad experience:
1) The tabbed browsing experience on my iPad Mini (rev 1, 32GB) is terrible under Safari, running the latest iOS 9.3.1 (and it has been that way under previous iOS versions.) It seems as there isn’t enough memory to have all the pages of the individual tabs, so they’re constantly being reloaded. Is it any better with later rev’s of the iPad (which have faster processors and more built-in memory – the iPad Mini rev 1 only had 512MB)?
2) I’m wondering how many people are dismayed by Flash video that doesn’t run under Safari (because iOS doesn’t support Flash.) Because I keep up with Apple news, I knew that I needed a different browser for Flash video (I got the paid version of the Puffin browser), but how many people have no idea there’s a problem with Flash video (and don’t even what Flash video is or that it’s not supported in iOS.) Is this not as big an issue as I think?
So, for these older iPads owners, the ones who you’d think would be upgrading about now, I’m wondering how many have been put off for the reasons above.
Being an AAPL shareholder, I’d actually like someone to convince me these are insignificant concerns.
How much RAM do you have on that old iPad?
Sorry, I should have said that 512MB figure was RAM (all the original iPad Mini’s had 512MB RAM, right?)
Flash is on the way out everywhere. I don’t think it’s an issue that it doesn’t run on Safari for iOS.
I haven’t used it very much the past year, don’t have it installed in Safari for the Mac and only run Chrome occasionally to use it.
Jobs was right about Flash, and Adobe is finally admitting it.
I agree, but how much does it affect the average consumer who may not know what the problem is? They certainly aren’t getting any alerts that Flash isn’t supported when they attempt to play a Flash video – as far as I know.
I suppose we can only guess how many millions of Flash-unknowledgeable iPad users are left with a bad impression – but I wouldn’t rule out the number being in the millions.