How many iPads did Apple sell in Q2 2016?

The analysts’ estimates range from 8 million to 12 million.

Apple will report iPad sales next week and they don’t look great. The consensus among the analysts we’ve heard from is that unit sales are headed for their ninth consecutive year-over-year decline.

The 12.9-inch iPad Pro, which shipped last November, didn’t turn the tide in Q1. And its 9.7-inch sibling shipped on March 31, too late to make it into next week’s results.

So in the chart below it still looks like peak iPad passed two years ago.

Based on the average estimate of 31 analysts, the Street expects Apple to report sales of just under 10 million units, down 21% from the same quarter last year.

Low estimate: 8 million from Cowan’s Timothy Arcuri
High estimate: 12 million from BTIG’s Walter Piecyk

We’ll find out who was closest to the mark after the markets close on Monday, April 25.

But first, one chart and one spreadsheet:

The analysts’ individual estimates, pros in blue, indies in green.

Screen Shot 2016-04-20 at 5.28.55 AM

Click to download. 

Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide’s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.

11 Comments

  1. John Kirk said:

    First screen: Smartphones. There will be 6 billion smartphones for 7 billion people in 2020.

    Second screen: tablets, 2-in-1’s, notebooks, desktops. Anyone who needs a second screen will choose 1 of those. Only a very few will choose to own 3 screens.

    The tablet is in a declining market sector. But it is much beloved. I think it persevere.

    0
    April 20, 2016
  2. John Miller said:

    Two questions I have about the iPad experience:

    1) The tabbed browsing experience on my iPad Mini (rev 1, 32GB) is terrible under Safari, running the latest iOS 9.3.1 (and it has been that way under previous iOS versions.) It seems as there isn’t enough memory to have all the pages of the individual tabs, so they’re constantly being reloaded. Is it any better with later rev’s of the iPad (which have faster processors and more built-in memory – the iPad Mini rev 1 only had 512MB)?

    2) I’m wondering how many people are dismayed by Flash video that doesn’t run under Safari (because iOS doesn’t support Flash.) Because I keep up with Apple news, I knew that I needed a different browser for Flash video (I got the paid version of the Puffin browser), but how many people have no idea there’s a problem with Flash video (and don’t even what Flash video is or that it’s not supported in iOS.) Is this not as big an issue as I think?

    So, for these older iPads owners, the ones who you’d think would be upgrading about now, I’m wondering how many have been put off for the reasons above.

    Being an AAPL shareholder, I’d actually like someone to convince me these are insignificant concerns.

    0
    April 21, 2016
      • John Miller said:

        Sorry, I should have said that 512MB figure was RAM (all the original iPad Mini’s had 512MB RAM, right?)

        0
        April 22, 2016
    • Richard Wanderman said:

      Flash is on the way out everywhere. I don’t think it’s an issue that it doesn’t run on Safari for iOS.

      I haven’t used it very much the past year, don’t have it installed in Safari for the Mac and only run Chrome occasionally to use it.

      Jobs was right about Flash, and Adobe is finally admitting it.

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      April 21, 2016
      • John Miller said:

        I agree, but how much does it affect the average consumer who may not know what the problem is? They certainly aren’t getting any alerts that Flash isn’t supported when they attempt to play a Flash video – as far as I know.

        I suppose we can only guess how many millions of Flash-unknowledgeable iPad users are left with a bad impression – but I wouldn’t rule out the number being in the millions.

        0
        April 22, 2016

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