This one went mostly to the pros.
Some pretty dismal estimates were submitted this quarter by extremists on both the bullish and the bearish wings of the Apple party. In general the professional analysts who took seriously the warning signs from Apple’s supply chain did best.
See below for the full ranking of all 41 analysts in Fortune’s panel—28 pros and 13 independents. Meanwhile…
A tip of the hat to:
Chuck Jones, the indy who bested Wall Street’s finest, missing Apple’s bottom line by two pennies and its top line by less than half a percentage point. His talents are wasted at Forbes, where he is a contributor.
Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley, who came in first in the all-categories competition on the strength of her unit sales estimates.
Simona Jankowski, a newcomer from Goldman Sachs, who nailed Apple’s EPS to the penny on her first time out. (She’s NA in the other ranking because she didn’t submit Mac or iPad numbers.)
And a wag of the finger to:
Ovi Popescu, whose way-out-of-line revenue, EPS, and iPhone estimates put him in second-to-last place.
Chris Cano, who landed in last place by erring on the other extreme. Unlike Popescu, an outsider even among the independents, Cano is well-connected. He follows Apple [fortune-stock symbol=”appl”] for Susquehanna, a privately held global investment firm that makes a market in the stock.
Below: The full list of analysts, sorted by the top and bottom line, with the pros in blue and the amateurs in green.
In keeping with tradition, I’ve created a color-coded spreadsheet that shows, in each category, best and second-best estimates (in bright and dark green) and worst and second-worst (in bright and dark red). It doesn’t read well on a small screen, but you can click here for the Google Sheet.
Thanks once again to Posts at Eventide’s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.