Recent Comments

  • ben luna on June quarter China iPhone sales give Apple a pre-July 4th boost - '‘Now maybe if the US had provided Ukraine with everything it asked for 3 years ago by 2 summers ago AND if Ukraine had drafted 18-25 year olds’ Exactly what I mean. This draft would’ve have very likely occurred given the former, but is unlikely if there are no weapons to arm them. Ukraine could not even supply their current forces last January when their supplies were cut off for months just to appease a certain ex-president. It is easy for Russia to look tough when their allies provide them with drones, missiles, and troops while we titrate our aid to Ukraine and provide Russia with safe zones to gather for their offensives. This was also a no-brainer opportunity to ramp up production in many NATO states providing a boost to their economies. Ukraine’s armed forces is the Apple of the military world. Innovative, plucky, and effective. It’s not without flaws, but look at some of the amazing things they were able to pull off. Operation Spiderweb, clearing the Black Sea without even having a sizable navy, pushing a much larger and better armed force out of Kiev Oblast with rocket launchers. Sorry, I just have so much respect for what Ukraine has done and feel awful for what we’ve not done what we could so easily have done.'
  • Tommo_UK on June quarter China iPhone sales give Apple a pre-July 4th boost - 'My question was about rare earths and China, not so much Ukraine, but never mind David. Thoughtful perspective on an unrelated matter'
  • ben luna on Premarket: Apple is green - '‘If any other government used a term like that and tried to get the media to use it in day to day commentary, they’d be laughed all the way into The Comedy Channel. ’ As the late, great Rick James said it: propaganda is a helluva drug.'
  • ben luna on BofA Maintains $235 Apple target after App Store revenues grew 12% in June - 'The closest I’ve ever gotten to a Barolo was when that was the codename for MacOS Lion. I’d love to try one someday. Those were lean years as the cost of living in the west bay punished us, but soon after I was able to work remotely from Seattle for a few years and we were finally able to save some money.'
  • Kemble Widmer on Look what Apple's imaging engineers have been up to - 'Bill, Ron, And Count me in for irrational camera driven iPhone upgrades as well. While photographing wildlife, it’s no Z9 but allows me to take incredible video while hammering the z9 shutter. And when traveling away from wildlife good enough to capture the incredible scenes for my purposes from the pocket.'
  • Jeff Daniel on BofA Maintains $235 Apple target after App Store revenues grew 12% in June - 'Apple now has a perception by young people of being very old. This makes them very vulnerable to other platforms with AI integrated into the platforms. Apple has missed after miss over the past decade. And has only done incremental updates to their products with very long upgrade cycles along with their software. The world is moving to automation and robotics. Apple ditched Project Titan. Apple is behind. This weeks action has been great for the stock. Will Apple acquire an AI company? Never the less Apple is rearview now with new talent. A missed opportunity that never needed to happen.'
  • Kemble Widmer on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Tommo, I’m gonna reply to your post on “flawless technical analysis” here, since the convo was a while back: From your response it seems you were reading way too much into my post, but always happy to explain. 1) I said “if your ta works flawlessly, than you made unlimited returns”, I should clarify that to “if your ta works flawlessly, you clearly have returns limited only by your capital”. That is not a snarky opinion (although admittedly I find such hubris galling), that is a fact (by the definition of flawless). 2). Most importantly, if your TA generates great returns for you and others: love it! Good on you! Seriously. (But oh by the way it ain’t gonna be flawless over any material volume of trades, way above average, sure! Flawless? Impossible or you would have bought Trump by now). 3.) I dabbled in TA 20 years ago after reading Timing the trade, but refocused on my traditional market research after a bit. My father, who I regard as smarter if not smarter than I, swears by it to this day, as do a few friends, and I beat the pants off all of them over 30 years, or recently, take your pick. By no means an indictment of TA, but my personal experience. 4) Now for an indictment of TA IMHO: philosophical question: if TA works reliably, why don’t those who practice it have enormous wealth?? They are limited only by their initial capital, but within a decade they would be wealthy beyond means?! If TA works reliably, why do 90% of hedge funds with enormous resources barely outperform an S&P fund over the long term? There is simply no rationale answer to explain this if TA worked reliably over the long term. 5) the reason: TA in my opinion relies on patterns of past human and/or algorithmic trading patterns to predict the future. Valid a lot of the time until material matters in the underlying business change, which happens often enough the TA never works reliably over the long term (see earlier point: if it worked reliably there would be an army of TA billionaires). 6) I love a lot of your insight, but the persistent ad hominem attacks, daily “Apple currently sucks” no matter the subject, and weekly (sometimes daily) “look how right I am and have always been!!” I do not personally enjoy. (But I’ll take it, as on balance, love your insight more than I resent my personal annoyances). 7) Most importantly: you have a system that works for you and others. May you continue to prosper, brother.'
  • David Emery on June quarter China iPhone sales give Apple a pre-July 4th boost - 'I’ve been avoiding commenting here (not interested in arguing with Tommo any more.) But on this topic I will disagree that “Ukraine could snuff out Russia.” Even if Ukraine got everything they wanted last year, Russia would still be a viable opponent. This year Russia is much closer to a wartime economy with wartime production. In particular, Russian missile production WAY exceeds US/EU anti-missile production. And US/EU doesn’t have a solid anti-drone munition stream. Now maybe if the US had provided Ukraine with everything it asked for 3 years ago by 2 summers ago AND if Ukraine had drafted 18-25 year olds, Ukraine could have inflicted sufficient losses on Russia to regain its original borders. The effect of that on Putin and on Russia as a whole is speculative, but is a different situation than now, where Putin is winning the war of attrition. I have some sympathy for the US decision to stop draining our war stocks for Ukraine, but at the same time, better to defeat Russia on Ukrainian soil, than on Polish/Lithuania/Estonian/Latvian/Romanian soil. Back to “listening silence.”'
  • Ron Fredrick on Look what Apple's imaging engineers have been up to - '**Absolutely agree with you Bill! I love using a long lens for wildlife photography, but, day-to-day, I use my Pro Max iPhone to take WAY too many photos. In fact, my younger son, *only* 53, teases me about taking so many photos because he said he’ll have to go through them all when I’m gone. I always tell him he’ll find a great many pictures of food. 🙂 But, really, I’m amazed at what wonderful Macro photos can be taken with an iPhone. Perhaps, Android phones take photos that are just as good…but, I’m someone who remembers the excitement when Polaroid Cameras were first released in the 1950’s. People were so excited they could see a photo after only waiting a minute for it to show up. Sure, you had to rub goop on the photo to keep it from fading…and it was only black and white…and the photos weren’t very sharp in detail…but, a photo in only one minute!! 🙂 I update my iPhone every year, so I appreciate how much improvement has been made in the camera since the first iPhone was released. For anyone who hasn’t tried taking a macro photo with their iPhone, I would highly recommend they try it. You may be surprised at what a great closeup image one can get with an iPhone. Plus, the photo will be in color, very sharp…and no goop is needed! 🙂'
  • Kemble Widmer on June quarter China iPhone sales give Apple a pre-July 4th boost - 'Pretty interesting, agree it likely rare earth minerals way more important in these relations than understood.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Happy 4th, everyone!'
  • Kemble Widmer on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Hard agree Tommo. Hope I am wrong. Doubt it.'
  • ben luna on June quarter China iPhone sales give Apple a pre-July 4th boost - 'Ukraine could snuff out russia if they had the weapons that they have requested. That plus the air defenses that they’ve asked to purchase would probably be enough to secure the mining of those rare earths. Instead we have more TACOs.'
  • Kemble Widmer on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Yes, heal well Joe. Putting aside exploding debt, intentional erosion of the rule of law, elimination of governmental checks and balances, loss of any attempt at integrity, and the abandonment of Ukraine for Putin, hey Dan I hope you are right. We all could use a strong economy, but I would encourage you and others to take limited utility from current readings, let’s see where we are in Sept/Oct.'
  • ben luna on Premarket: Apple is red - 'check’s in the mail!'
  • Tommo_UK on June quarter China iPhone sales give Apple a pre-July 4th boost - 'By the way, a specious theory of mine. Trump needs rare earths. Badly. China has most of them – apart from Ukraine. He took a gamble on stopping Putin and the Ukraine war, and launched his tariff war against China and the world in expectation of having a quick deal over the war, strong-arming Zelenskyy into giving up his rare earths deposed an agreeing to a $500B lien on them on top of having exclusive 100-year mining rights, so he could face down China. That’s why he was pressuring Zelensky and Europe to give up on Ukraine and take his peace (a surrender to Russia in all but name) as quickly as possible to secure exclusive US supply of rare earths from Ukraine for the US military and his planned relocation of hi-tech manufacturing to US soil, which would require a massive rare earths reserve stock the US simply doesn’t have. Europe turned against him, Zelensky turned him down, and Putin ignored him. Trump was isolated. He then pivoted, talked down tariff action against China, lowered coronal earwigs from 145% to what is it now [suspended] 45%? And in the meantime the Chinese sensing the fear and need of the Trump to secure his rare earths supplies totally up in the air with the Ukraine war getting worse, not better, have said “no” to more supplies to the US, which could be devastating to US ambitions, let alone even being able to maintain the maintainance of its defence assets or build new ones at scale. So this China play, and the endless kicking the can down the road and constant blaming the stick and carrot combination is likely just the tip of the iceberg of the diplomatic war going on behind the scenes. It seems quite refundable to imagine the fight hinges of this one matter, and China is likely offering to start supplying the rare earths America desperately until a reliable supply can be dug out of Ukraine when or if the war is over and mining can begin, in exchange for dropping the tariff threats. So far, China seems to be winning the war of attrition, with not it in public, but the US, making all the “friendly moves” and reassuring words at press conferences. China on the other hand, has just said it will do whatever it takes to protect its position even if it means a trade war and hasn’t publicly given an inch, watching Trump face every time he fails to enforce a new tariff regime and announce a round of “successful” talks with China, which never seem to actually appear. Is this whole kicking the can down the road and scaling back the war against China, just a case of chronic misjudgment by Trump of his ability to stop the Ukraine war, win Putin over, and deal with China on his terms, which has gone so badly wrong he doesn’t know what to do? Answers probably after July 9th, when this temporary tariff suspension is due to expire. Just a theory, but so simple and plausible it almost seems like a no brainer?'
  • Tommo_UK on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Thanks for that post Bill, it echoes my fears when I bailed out of all US assets in March and saw the tariff and treasuries tantrum coming. All I see when I look at the market whistling past the impossible to avoid impact of tariffs when they hit, is a lot of analysts on Fentanyl while a lot of MAGA supporting investment bankers talk up the prospects of the economy as if the base reasons for the initial fears were unfounded. It’s astounding dissonance. Where is this “China Deal” Trump said was “signed and sealed two days ago,” about a week ago? Washington and Beijing are silent. The word “propaganda” and the phrase “market manipulation” springs to mind because now all the talking heads are congratulating themselves on “American Exceptionalism” where just a couple of months ago they were talking about the era being over and bond vigilantes about to destroy the Dollar. Whacky baccy world! By the way, how is it that the term “Liberation Day” for April 2nd, the worst delayed April Fool’s joke ever, is actually used as common parlance on TV and in the media, as if it was some fight for freedom won? If any other government used a term like that and tried to get the media to use it in day to day commentary, they’d be laughed all the way into The Comedy Channel. This is a genuine question, because it seems so sycophantic to even use the phrase…'
  • Tommo_UK on Premarket: Apple is red - 'We went through this a few years ago in the UK thanks to the most appalling policy decisions by the Conservatives over 14 years of squandering the country’s competitive edge, and a lopsided Labour Party now in power for almost a year who have taken a dried out sponge and are in danger of just snapping the economy entirely while they try to squeeze more money out of it by reckless government borrowing, taxation, and spending while having no policies for growth. The US, if it finds itself in a similar position could see a wealth and liquidity implosion of epic proportions and a return to the fears stoked in April but yet to be recognised as still real, still present but swept under the carpet by Trump’s “yipetee” reassurances. The UK’s economy has been wrecked from the strongest growth in the G7 just a few years ago to looking like it might an IMF bailout if this carries on. The US only has the Fed to bail it out, and they’re not going to budge, I don’t think, even if Trump replaces the Fed chair. If they do, kiss goodbye to the Dollar and watch the bond market implode too. But, happy Fourth of July in the meantime. Truth is, taking a second view, England became bored of the expense of maintaining an army in the Americas and just kept Canada, ceding the rest to a bunch of rebels you quickly forgot how to spell “colour” and pronounce “tomato.” Conquering Europe and saving it from Napoleon while continuing to be able to trade with the Americas was a much more strategic and pragmatic choice of how to use resources. That’s the benefit of trade, not tariff wars: everybody wins, a lesson Trump should reflect on and learn. So Independence Day? You’re still very welcome to it, but those tea taxes are still racking up a lot of compound interest 😉'
  • Ron Fredrick on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Joseph Bland said: Hi, Gregg. I just checked my Apple Wallet. I see the “offer”. What’s the big deal? Presumably, I’d save a few bucks if I picked up the offer (I won’t because 1) I’m immune compromised and 2) I’m presently in the hospital. **Hi Joseph! I missed seeing your post but searched for it after I saw Dan Scropos’ very nice comment to you. Like Dan said, I hope you’re soon well and out of the hospital! 🙂'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Thanks for your kind thoughts, Dan.'
  • George Kiersted on June quarter China iPhone sales give Apple a pre-July 4th boost - 'There has to be a better way!'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Apple earnings call already announced: Apple Financial Results – Q3 2025 Join us here on July 31, 2025 at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET to listen to the conference call live.'
  • Fred Stein on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Yes. In the US house demand is low, inventory rising, in the middle of peak buying. This could become reinforcing with concerns about income prospects and home appreciation.'
  • Tommo_UK on BofA Maintains $235 Apple target after App Store revenues grew 12% in June - 'Fred A Barolo would be delicious so savour over a debate, but in the meantime, this is worth a comment “When did Apple raise App Store fees?” Well they haven’t as far as I know, but that would be the argument made: with only one App Store, it isn’t least Apple supposedly benefitting from the monopoly they have on iOS downloads but developers too, who know there’s nowhere else consumers can go shopping for their app cheaper elsewhere. There’s so many different sides to this it might as well be a dodecahedron. I don’t want to see the security of downloads reduced with Alt-Stores tbh, especially not with AI and LLMs likely to start making devices vulnerable to data leaks or attacks but I wish Apple would just put this matter to bed before it is actually forced to somehow open up.'
  • Tommo_UK on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Unemployment number were appalling if you account for the number of local/state government hires employed to take the place of federal hires cut back. Private sector was negative. So much for freedom. Federal spending cutbacks, and tax breaks, local government spending rising and raising costs, likely to be passed on with local taxes rising. All in all a poor report, but with the market so “Yippee” instead of “Yippety” bad news is good news for now. Which it will be. Until it isn’t. Stock prices are also perverseley indicative of valuations out of control with talking heads dismissing the impact of 20-30% tariffs about to start stoking inflation as if it didn’t matter, and meaning, IMO, there won’t be a single rate cut this year instead of the 3-4 the market seems to be pricing in. And the Dollar is falling, with each stage of that “Big Beautiful Bill” showing its ugly face for what it is. This is la-la-land economics IMO. Seen this all before. It’s like re-watching The Matrix.'
  • Fred Stein on BofA Maintains $235 Apple target after App Store revenues grew 12% in June - 'Ah a little devil, eh? When did Apple raise App Store fees? I only recall they made a big deal about lowering to 15% for Apps with under $1M annual sales. That’s just PR, throwing a bone to hopefuls. As for legal and moral, I’d love to open a Barolo and discuss further off-line. I do agree 100% that Apple handled it wrong. Make a few more concessions – make judo move.'
  • Tommo_UK on June quarter China iPhone sales give Apple a pre-July 4th boost - 'I remember seeing a few reports of retailers and carriers cutting iPhone costs heavily to shift units, because sales were lagging. Maybe they just sold more units, for lower prices. Won’t reflect much on Apple’s bottom line if they’re carrier discounts or third party retailers of course. All in all I think I’d say nothing to see really from an investment POV. All eyes on the ER at this point which I think could end up being a wild inflection point.'
  • Daniel Epstein on June quarter China iPhone sales give Apple a pre-July 4th boost - 'It will be interesting to found out if Currency exchange with the weaker dollar and the discount in prices end up making the revenue impact for Apple in China significant or not. As usual unit sales is how many look at market share. I tend to look at profitability and revenue for Apple as better indicators than unit sale numbers. But Counter Point and others rarely if ever know those numbers.'
  • Dan Scropos on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Fair assessment, Joe. Hope you’re well and out of the hospital. That post didn’t go unnoticed. Either way—heal up.'
  • Tommo_UK on Look what Apple's imaging engineers have been up to - 'A patent. Ok. Show me when it ships and I’ll wake up. As Gregg loves saying, it don’t real until it ships. And Apple files thousands of patents it doesn’t use (and many on products. It does, but never ships). Like car-manufacture-related patents. For Project Titanic.Which people say can’t exist and is irrelevant because., they never shipped a car. Just sayin’'