Michael Goldfeder on Wedbush’s Daniel Ives sticks with $200 Apple target - 'While IBM posted good numbers for their quarter, on the earnings call the CEO did not “provide guidance”, so the stock fell back a bit AH. While I’m not expecting TC to give “projected guidance” on this next earnings call, I’m wondering if providing a positive backdrop, or “color” as to the chip shortage and supply line constraints will be sufficient for the analysts questions? Remember, TC did say in the last earnings call that he expected a record holiday quarter.'
on Apple at $154.70: Hello, goodbye - 'I wonder who was doing the selling today, retail investors, weak hands who had bought in November or December, institutions, hedge funds, or options players / brokerages? Despite the pessimism of being down, at the low, about -15.4% from all time high, I don’t feel particularly pessimistic. We were at the low of $154.70 back on Nov. 17, 2021 when enthusiasm for AAPL and Apple was starting to build. Fundamentally for Apple, nothing much has changed except we lived through the holiday quarter with strong demand, reasonable parts and product supply with some constraints on iPads and Macs, and the beginnings of the Omnicron Covid outbreak sweeping the globe. From a macroeconomic perspective, inflation and Fed actions were coming as most rational people foresaw, but the market likes to party right to the end (Fed confirmation announcement) and then acts like its some kind of bombshell, turns tail, and runs away. Well, AAPL went through the same thing in Nov-Dec 2018, May 2019, and of course Feb-Mar 2020. Each time macroeconomic or external events pulled AAPL and most others down. Each time, Apple stayed the course business wise, gathered themselves, and continued to forge ahead, facing any headwinds resolutely. I see no differences today. Whether the inflation rate spikes over the next year or so, Apple will continue its fundamentally sound product and services businesses. Whether the market supports or abandons AAPL, Apple itself will continue to create shareholder value, and eventually the stock will recover, sooner or later. Meanwhile, for those inclined, buying opportunities to the tune of a 15% or more discount (or a typical year’s worth of growth for the market) will appear. Set a lower buy limit and sit back. I felt fine and slept well in Sept. October and November, I’ll sleep fine during this quarter too. BTW, the PE dropped back to 28.8 today. After earnings, it will probably drop to ~26 based on an earnings beat.'
on Apple at $154.70: Hello, goodbye - 'Whenever the market takes these crazy dips, I sell a 10, or so, long-term out-of-the-money (30% or so) Puts. It’s not much $$. And one has to be patient to wait for these dips and then to wait until the positions atrophy. “Time is on my side”: 1) longer term puts carry higher premiums; 2) Buybacks; 3) Organic growth. Eg: Folks will actually pay $3.30 for a Jan 23 100 PUT.'
on Apple at $154.70: Hello, goodbye - '@PED Thanks for the reminder! Apple reached today’s closing price for the first time two months ago today – November 24th. No reason to panic at all. As Robert Douglass stated above, for him it’s a real buy opportunity. While the sell off is unpleasant, it does provide Apple’s management the opportunity to repurchase more shares at a discounted price. That is if management moves quickly! We’ll see what Thursday brings when management announces December quarter results and March quarter guidance.'
on Apple at $154.70: Hello, goodbye - 'Well, I picked up several hundred shares at $157, just before noon, so I don’t feel too bad 🙂 (I use these ‘occasional’ big downdrafts as an opportunity to p/u shares ‘on the cheap’, hold them for awhile, and sell ’em for some ‘play’ money profit. I do this in a margin account where I hold my never-to-be-sold core AAPL holdings, that I’ve acquired pre-split (actually TWO pre-splits 🙂 As an old-broker-friend of mine once said… You’re a genius today, let’s see what tomorrow brings.:) This kind of action lets me re-enact my younger years… well, at least a little bit 🙂 Retirement is good.'
on Bloomberg: How plunging Apple can be saved - 'I heard backup beepers on road construction trucks on my island all day. Noticed the price at $155 but Monday typing assignments beckoned. Figured the app was broken when I saw shares closed down 79 cents at $161.62 on whopping volume (~151,000,000). Roller coasters and high rollers. Apple shares have been popular with overseas investors for a long time. Their kids want iPhones and an Apple Watch. Friends in France, Germany and Portugal buy & sell stocks on their phones. Massive sovereign wealth funds need consistent long term results from firms that qualify according to culture & goals. Apple stock fits the bill. Fluctuating dollar sweetens the deal.'
on Bloomberg: How plunging Apple can be saved - 'Volume as of about 15 minutes after closing at ~160 M shares. Seems like a lot, but pre-split it would have been 40 M shares – hardly a big deal. As I said elsewhere, more telling is the huge jump in Max Pain – from $155 to $170 – between Friday and today. We shed a LOT of short term options on Friday, and that’s not just on AAPL. Make no mistake: We’re still solidly in a gambler’s market, so caveat emptor. Which is latin for “If you’re smart you’ll buy and hold AAPL”….'
on Bloomberg: How plunging Apple can be saved - 'Well there could be a correlation between the stock market and Apple stock hitting Trillion mark valuations. Of course correlation does not mean causation and Apple reaching a market Cap number should not be a signal to sell the market that is followed as usually Apple stock price has advanced in the future so wouldn’t that be a buy signal? Today’s dramatic fall and turn around seems to be the crowds heading for the exits while the patient investors spy a buying opportunity. Hard to time that move unless you are a real short term trader! Sell in the morning buy in the afternoon. I wouldn’t be surprised if this kind of action unfortunately lasts little longer. I often feel like Tuesday falls and Wednesday rebounds do feel more reliable. Just a feeling not backed by research.'
on Eighty-three-year-old bear warns — again — that the end is near - 'It seems an exaggeration to call this a super bubble. Maybe the market is ahead of itself somewhat. Bubbles are extreme situations. I recall a time (1999?) when a technology mutual fund doubled in a short time (one quarter? One month?). That was a bubble. That was nuts. I looked at that and knew it wasn’t normal. Should have sold everything but I was too busy with life. There may be some individual smaller bubbles going on now, perhaps there always are. Tesla and bitcoin come to mind. Netflix has already given back two years of gains. Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon have high valuations as a group but they are also producing a ton of revenue. This doesn’t feel like the late 90s when all sorts of internet companies popped up with huge valuations and no profits. That was a bubble. Even so, I’m inclined to criticize too harshly. It seems like what happens when a new area opens up. A lot of money rushes in, much of it is lost, eventually a small number of successful companies emerge. Fortunes are won and lost. Life goes on.'
on Bloomberg: How plunging Apple can be saved - 'OMG!! The sky is falling, the world is ending, the… Oh. Never mind.'
on Bloomberg: How plunging Apple can be saved - 'I bought a few shares today. I’m thinking long-term.'
on Eighty-three-year-old bear warns — again — that the end is near - 'This is where we’ll find out how much Wallstreet has dumped into crypto scams as the smart money heads for the exits ala 2007.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - '“…fast rising inflation will become self reinforcing.” Yup! I hope they can nip it quickly – then get out.'
on Eighty-three-year-old bear warns — again — that the end is near - 'The U.S. economy is strong. Chair Powell is more dovish than folk understand. Industries and big businesses are poised for historical expansion. Apple is firing on all cylinders. The horizon for a strong economy and the brightest of future for Apple never appeared so certain as now. Buy as many shares of Apple as possible if you have discretionary funds on hand to do so.'
