Recent Comments

  • Thomas Williams on Apple at $148.56: Look who’s underwater now - 'I’m befuddled when it comes est. targets by Tim Long at Barclays & Christopher Caso at Raymond James on April 29, 2021. $138 vs. $185. Why the stark difference, at the same point in time? These guys are pros & theoretically have access to the best historical data, industry news and forecasts. Is there some special sauce they add or take out with no basis in fact? Hunches never worked well when I was a young investor.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Barron’s: Apple’s 12% rally has not erased concerns about the stock - 'Concerns? I’m not seeing it in the options market. Normally a contract sells at the mid-point between Bid and Ask. Today the Sellers are holding out for their Ask, and getting it. So far this session I have watched AAPL decline until my contract offer exceeded the mid-point but 2c, and still it wasn’t executed. July 30 highest Open Interest is the $150 Call carrying an implied break even of $152.60 price. Savitz’ article is hogwash filler because he’s paid to write SOMETHING, evidence notwithstanding.'
  • Fred Stein on Barron’s: Apple’s 12% rally has not erased concerns about the stock - 'Investors were also concerned about inflation until recently. OPEC raised output, lowering a key global driver of inflation, oil prices. That may influence stock price more than rumor du jour. Expectation about a great report tomorrow helps, and rightly so. The rest of Eric’s concerns are just rehash.'
  • David Emery on Barron’s: Apple’s 12% rally has not erased concerns about the stock - 'The one concern expressed about AAPL the last two quarters that I find understandable is the absence of guidance. If Apple returns to providing guidance, that would remove the concern.'
  • Jerry Doyle on Apple at $148.56: Look who’s underwater now - 'That many analysts above the Friday’s closing price speaks volumes with clarity that this is one stock to own. And yet, my own instincts and understanding of Apple’s current operating performance and pipeline of unique and innovative products and services to flow forth still causes me to impugn the analysts’ target prices as being anemic. Toni Sacconaghi, Rod Hall, Jeff Kvaal and that Pierre Ferragu seem to feel no professional shame representing WS’s clown alley.'
  • Jerry Doyle on Barron’s: Apple’s 12% rally has not erased concerns about the stock - 'Much of the trepidation for WS surrounding the stock could be assuage if Apple comes forth providing forward guidance. I believe those numbers would be robust, catapulting the stock forward.'
  • David Emery on Apple at $148.56: Look who’s underwater now - 'Is it unusual to have so many above the line going into earnings?'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple at $148.56: Look who’s underwater now - 'The usual suspects are at the bottom. Did we honestly believe it would be different this time around?'
  • Bart Yee on Barron’s: Apple’s 12% rally has not erased concerns about the stock - 'Whatever regulatory hurdles are put before it, Apple would deal with it appropriately. These issues would be small dips and speed bumps but would be absorbed by Apple. Sure, possibly hits to services and maybe hardware is slowed by some component shortages, but eventually Apple would find ways to overcome and continue upward trajectories. As for iPhone demand, well major parts of the world are still recovering and certainly the US and Europe are still ramping up economically. With Covid still being somewhat of a damper, economies should still have a ways to go. Combine this with better and better 5G services, the allure of 5G will continue to boost iPhone sales. If and when Apple introduces a midrange model iPhone SE 3 (slated for 2022) with 5G and an A15 chip at $400-450, it would be a huge seller for price sensitive markets. And of course, services revenue follows.'
  • Gary Morton on Barron’s: Apple’s 12% rally has not erased concerns about the stock - 'It feels like there is concern in the analyst community over how the market will react to what is likely to be a strong earnings report by Apple. Given the reaction to the latest two blowouts, this is entirely reasonable. Contrarians might note, however, that there was little speculation about a negative reaction to any blowout prior to the FQ1 2021 report. Then the blowout of all blowouts came and, incredibly, the stock price declined. All the human experts rushed to offer an explanation. It will be interesting to see what happens this week. What narratives will we attach to the stock price movement? Those invested for the long term may rest comfortably knowing that over the long arc of time stock prices tend to follow company earnings. Those in it for the shorter term will offer compelling, interesting, and engaging explanations for the market reaction.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on If Forrest Gump had really invested in Apple, he would be a billionaire today - '@ Jerry Doyle: IMO, Jerry’s investment buying Apple for his daughter back when he did in 1997 exceeds the subsequent purchases by Warren Buffet who obviously just followed the trail blazed by Jerry. As they say on Saturday’s down in Baton Rouge: “Geaux Jerry!”'
  • Jerry Doyle on If Forrest Gump had really invested in Apple, he would be a billionaire today - '@Ken Cheng: “….Did he factor in all the share buybacks?” Additionally, did he factor in dividend reinvestments over the years? I checked my daughter’s July 1997 $3,500 Apple investment just now and at Closed Friday, her Apple holdings were: $5,325,709.44. No shares ever have been sold and all dividends reinvested. I am not a mathematician but I know a little about investing. The larger the base, the more the investment balloons exponentially. The article uses a $1,000 investment in Apple stock the day “Forrest Gump” was released as now being worth $610,000.49 based on a share price of $146.40 for Apple. So, a $3,500 investment base means a 3 ½ times more exponential growth as shares over the decades, split. That exponential growth is the only answer that I see for the differential over the years in the hypothetical $1,000 investment and my daughter’s $3,500 investment. Over the years I long have emphasized why owning and “holding” even a few shares of Apple puts you way ahead. And why owning and buying right now is still a very, very smart move.'
  • Thomas Williams on If Forrest Gump had really invested in Apple, he would be a billionaire today - '“My Mama always said you’ve got to put the past behind you before you can move on.” – Forrest Shrewd investing advice.'
  • Gregg Thurman on If Forrest Gump had really invested in Apple, he would be a billionaire today - 'If only we had Lt Dan’s vision back then.'
  • Mark Visnic on Gene Munster’s Apple June quarter preview - 'First, 35x FY ‘22 @ $5.70 would be a trailing PE in about 16 months so Gene’s ~$200 price target computes to about a 16 month timeline. Second, FY 2022 EPS of $5.70 would be single digit growth over 2021. That is far too low. 15% or more is more likely and that yields a minimum of $6.00. $200/6 = 33.3 trailing PE in 16 months AAPL easily could be $210-$225 with 20-25% EPS growth and a 33-35 multiple.'
  • Ken Cheng on If Forrest Gump had really invested in Apple, he would be a billionaire today - 'Did he factor in all the share buybacks?'
  • Mark Visnic on Evercore: Apple facing September headwinds - 'The very last thing I worry about with AAPL exposure is the supply chain; not with the supply chain GOAT at the helm, none other than Tim Cook.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on If Forrest Gump had really invested in Apple, he would be a billionaire today - 'Lieutenant Dan said he wants to meet Rod Hall.'
  • David Emery on If Forrest Gump had really invested in Apple, he would be a billionaire today - '“Investing is like a box of chocolates….”'
  • Thomas Williams on Evercore: Apple facing September headwinds - 'Floods impacted employees & suppliers but so far Foxconn iPhone assembly facilities were not flooded. As this is a ‘fluid’ situation everything could change next week. There are Apple suppliers in regions in Europe and Taiwan likely impacted to a greater degree. DW, German public news, has some grim reports on that front. Dutch & Belgian losses were major too. Apple products are globally sourced.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Evercore: Apple facing September headwinds - 'No sooner than I ask, “Where in the World is Ming Cho Kuo” (What it means that Apple et al. all report earnings next week) than he appears with a prediction that he says won’t appear for another year. Hell, just about anything could happen in a year.'
  • Jerry Doyle on Evercore: Apple facing September headwinds - 'I just finished listening to an Above Avalon podcast where Neil Cybart talked about Apple’s supply chain containing much more “optionality” than critics imagine, or perhaps even known to us. Neil says Apple’s supply chain and manufacturing apparatus remains underestimated by WS. Consensus isn’t giving Apple enough credit for what Tim Cook has structured over the past two decades. Neil denotes that there is a battle going on among the world’s powers for Apple’s business. Apple is one of the very few companies says Neil, to give a country “legitimacy.” China and Apple’s working relationship exists through mutual need to work together and through each knowing the other benefits from that relationship. China will prioritize any slippage during this period to address Apple’s concerns.'
  • Dave Ryder on Gene Munster’s Apple June quarter preview - '“…based on 35x our 2022 EPS estimate…”? 35 PE seems rich to me.'
  • Jerry Doyle on This week’s Apple trading strategies (7/26-7/30) - 'I’m fearful of Apple not providing forward guidance Tuesday. If Tim & Luca do provide healthy forward guidance, then step aside; hats off in hands, Spurs moved in, heads leaning forward, we’re in a horse race competing with ourselves. 🙂'
  • Paul Brindze on Evercore: Apple facing September headwinds - 'I don’t buy that there will be any significant flood impact on Apple. That said, I believe this story could be used to dampen the good earnings news expected and hold PPS down immediately post earnings.'
  • Fred Stein on Evercore: Apple facing September headwinds - 'While I like Amit, supply chain rumors/projections don’t cut it. Maybe a few days impact, but no impact on full year financials.'
  • Jerry Doyle on Evercore: Apple facing September headwinds - 'This is what the “Global Times” is reporting: “…. Foxconn said that the rain didn’t have a ‘direct impact’ on its facility, which reportedly makes half of the iPhones worldwide. …. ‘It may have to halt production for a couple days, but the work can quickly be made up. It is unlikely that the rain will affect or delay the launch of the new iPhone,’ Xiang Ligang, director general of the Beijing-based Information Consumption Alliance, told the Global Times on Wednesday.” “…. Cao Heping, a professor of economics at Peking University in Beijing, told the Global Times on Wednesday that the impact on the international supply chain will also be limited, given the province’s increasing capability in dealing with flooding since the 1980s.”'
  • David Emery on Evercore: Apple facing September headwinds - 'Predicting supply-chain headwinds… That’s a practice with a particularly poor track record. And given the seasonal demand curve, it seems to me this would be the quarter that Apple would catch up, while transitioning the supply chain for the new Fall products. So I’m rating this particular note as ‘questionable’. And the position that these arguments are already baked-in to AAPL’s price seems to be wistful thinking, given what we hear from others.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Evercore: Apple facing September headwinds - 'A pretty balanced assessment of what Apple faces going into the September quarter. What isn’t addressed is how the Chinese will respond to flooding and, more importantly, how will Foxconn respond. Apple and Foxconn have both demonstrated very strong disaster response skills. I’m not sure I would discount September results just yet. It’s still two distant.'