Recent Comments

  • Gregg Thurman on Where is Apple headed? - 'in the context of slowing global economic growth I ask slowing from what? An unbelievable amount of QE was unleashed on the US economy during 2020 and 2021. As it was happening I was in favor of it, but now, in hind sight, I think Congress and the FED went way too far. All that easing is now augmenting the inflationary pressures caused by the Ukraine war as weaponry is replaced and Ukraine is rebuilt. Draconian efforts to control it are going to result in wild swings in our economy. But wii it truly slow from history growth rates?'
  • Robert Stack on Apple's anti-union offensive runs afoul of the N.L.R.B. - '@Steven: My hope would be that he’d make like Shira Ovide, and move on to “other challenges.” Or perhaps he’d like to “spend more time with his family…”'
  • Steven Philips on India, already an iPhone exporter, will be making AirPods as well - 'Not to mention Apple hardware and software used in production.'
  • Steven Philips on Apple's anti-union offensive runs afoul of the N.L.R.B. - 'Robert: What? You want to X Brian?'
  • Thomas Williams on Tim Cook meets Pope - 'Thanks Michael. I’m still digesting everything Tim Cook shared and edited in that issue of Popular Mechanics. Like Tim, I read PM as young boy and continue to read most issues today. I provided no link because I read PM, The Economist and probably another $500 worth of magazine subscriptions at my local libraries, every place I’ve lived. Libraries in Europe and Asia even carry Popular Mechanics among many other US journals. Dad subscribed to Popular Mechanics for like $6/year! What a value, even in the 60s & 70s. He built several of the projects they proposed, to mixed results.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Where is Apple headed? - 'Bart: I appreciate your comment. In my view, emphasis and focus should be placed on Apple’s fundamentals and not conjecture and speculation on when the company will release the next “one more thing” and it’s assumed benefit to revenue and net income. Assuredly new products and services will come in time and when Tim Cook & Co. believe they are ready for release. In my view, Apple’s fundamentals remain strong in the context of slowing global economic growth and now the probability of a recession in 2023. Can a relatively strong fiscal performance by Apple appreciably lift the share price in a bear market environment? I’d like to know the views of Apple 3.0 subscribers on this question.'
  • Bart Yee on Where is Apple headed? - 'Here’s my other response about any AR product reveal: “I personally do not think this is the time to introduce any new AR products now, there are too many negatives to consumer demand for a new high priced device to compete for discretionary dollars. The other reason is there has not been articulated the killer Apps and use cases for AR AND this would provide more time for Apple to get BOM prices lower over time.” Brother Joseph responded “I don’t agree. Any product Apple introduces will be snapped up from the get-go. And it will, as always, take time for Apple to ramp up production. If they’ve got it, I think it would be a big mistake to just sit on it.” I respect that viewpoint but IMO Apple has understood most of the time when they have the right product, the right supply chain, and the right market & conditions to introduce a potential “disruptive” new product or service. I don’t disagree that many well heeled Apple fans would snap up AR devices to be bleeding edge adopters. My concern is when is the market ready and large enough plus ready and able to buy? The former is debatable, but the latter is fairly negative with many competing demands on disposable income, especially for an initially high value (>$1500) device with, to many, an unfamiliar use case outside of gaming. I could see Apple using WWDC 2023 to showcase use cases and Applications for ARKit and give real world demonstrations of how users could enjoy or benefit from such a device or AR applications. For example, using AR to inform users w/digitized information on surroundings while walking, driving, or cycling – on a mobile device, face worn, verbal, in car or projected heads up display (HUD) via CarPlay. Similar interaction with wide ranging live or recorded streaming or location experiences, training exercises, or live sports. IMO Apple needs to help “prime the pump” of demand by explaining and demonstrating why and how this tech advancement could by useful and attractive. Then both developers and consumers could be intrigued by the possibilities.'
  • Bart Yee on Where is Apple headed? - '@Bob Thanks for your thoughtful questions and the civil exchange of answers and discourse, it’s what sets PED30.com apart from most other AAPL financial forums (that and NO spam postings!).'
  • David Emery on Where is Apple headed? - 'I think there are -2 sets of numbers- to track: (1) How AAPL does in absolute terms (2) How AAPL does vs S&P 500 (and other indexes) If there’s general market decline of, for example 5%, but Apple goes down only 2%, to me at least that’s a 3% win for Apple. But I completely agree that Apple guidance (if any) for the next quarter will be really important. We’re coming into Apple’s 2 big quarters.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Where is Apple headed? - 'The reason I posed the question to Bart is because the strong market performance on Monday and Tuesday may have been a “bear market rally” which are common as the indexes and equity prices move lower in a bear market trend. Perhaps the market action earlier this week was false confidence the FOMC would diminish the size of the increases in the Fed Funds rate following the remaining meetings in 2022. As interest rates move higher, the present value of future earnings are diminished and it raises the opportunity costs of investing in equities. With 2-year Treasuries now offering greater than 4% yields, for example, there’s currently more competition for investor dollars from other asset classes. I agree with Fred. At this time Apple’s fundamentals remain strong.'
  • David Emery on What switching to the common charger means for Apple (2 videos) - 'As a single data point, Wife’s new iPhone 14 Pro came with a USB-C to Lightning cable (and no charger.) So it’s pretty clear that for the charger side, Apple is now USB-C. Could Apple ship iDevices with a USB-C to Lightning adapter? Would that fill the EU’s requirement? (And if not, I’d like to hear from the EU -why not-, if they really are worried about “excess phone chargers filling landfills”, since a USB-C/Lighting adapter would NOT increase the charger count. My personal guess/assessment is this is a deliberate attempt by Eurocrats to poke Apple in the eye, and the “chargers in landfill” is just their lame excuse.)'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Where is Apple headed? - 'I expect another solid to great earnings report on the 27th. Quickly followed by the standard: “Pull forward sales”, and other assorted naysayers regarding consumer spending is down; iPhone 14 provides nothing new; and the Ultra iWatch only serves a niche market and doesn’t move the needle; and of course the oldest and most parroted comment used; Apple no longer innovates since Jobs passed!'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Tim Cook meets Pope - '@Thomas Williams: Thank you for that information about the article. Tim Cook’s interview was very insightful. It’s folks like you and everyone else on this Apple 3.0 Platform who curate information about Apple that the CNBC and assorted talking heads will never provide or share. As an investor, this Platform and its members provide the best segue for Apple information available anywhere. Thank you again for your always informative posts and insights you provide! That goes for everyone else too!'
  • Fred Stein on Where is Apple headed? - 'Short term headwind. But OK long term. Per WSJ today. Mortgage rates approaching 7% is resulting in a single family housing glut. Private equity is snapping up inventory at 10% to 20% discount to retail. This will ripple through the economy, likely impacting all assets. BUT… Apple’s fundamentals will remain in tact for the reasons we’ve all noted. Investors will pile back into AAPL for the safety and the long-term upside. The trajectory and timing remain unpredictable.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Apple's anti-union offensive runs afoul of the N.L.R.B. - 'I’m waiting for the day the NYT becomes part of the Apple newsstand format. The champagne is chilling in the refrigerator.'
  • Aaron Belich on What switching to the common charger means for Apple (2 videos) - 'Yeah… the masses of iPhone users will now be subject to the insanity that is the USB Type C cable market. Genius. What could possibly go wrong!? /s Regular iPad / iPhone should go port-less. Pro models across the board should have USB C with Thunderbolt support, across the board, regardless of the form factor (Mac, iPad, iPhone, etc).'
  • Daniel Epstein on Where is Apple headed? - 'Always tough to guess the trading range. Of course I think 170 is likely the upper part of the range but 160 wouldn’t surprise me. I always think Apple trades with a wider range even in normal times. Some people will really complain if Apple reports good results and good guides as they are waiting for Apple to cut estimates going forward. It would be quite an achievement for the company to maintain growth in this environment. That would indicate a more fundamental shift towards Apple’s ecosystem than many analysts expect. And if there is actually any good news watch out.'
  • Aaron Belich on Where is Apple headed? - 'Yup. #TheNewYuppies'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - '@ Bart: “I personally do not think this is the time to introduce any new AR products now…” I don’t agree. Any product Apple introduces will be snapped up from the get-go. And it will, as always, take time for Apple to ramp up production. If they’ve got it, I think it would be a big mistake to just sit on it.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Bart: Thank you for the thoughtful response. On Monday and Tuesday I think the market got ahead of itself on expectations the Fed will begin to moderate increases in the Fed Funds rate. While the odds now favor an economic downturn in 2023, the market will anticipate the recovery long before a downturn is over. I have few concerns about Apple looking a year out from now outside of any unexpected hiccups in organic revenue and net income growth.'
  • Daniel Epstein on What switching to the common charger means for Apple (2 videos) - 'Hey Bart, I will say most people will want to keep both USBC to USBA and USBC to USBC cables around if they use any legacy chargers. I bought a USBC external Hard drive for a client to use the other day and both those cables came in the box. I think this will be true for people who want to be prepared to charge their phone as well. Since cables are needed in both cases and they do tend to wear out over time there will still be plenty of incompatibility incidents for many years to come. This law will likely barely help people going forward who don’t have any older chargers they want to continue to use. As for the durability of the USBC connector compared to lightning it will be interesting to see how that works out. I do think phones should have at least two ways to charge which Apple already knows how to do.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'The overall market is down today. The big tech loser appears to be TSLA, presently down over 5%. The air continues to be let out of TSLA’s tires after that big drop following the announcement on Monday that it “produced more cars than it delivered”. TSLA had, along with AAPL, been fighting the tendency to join the rest of tech in the gutter. Mr. Market’s massive revaluation doesn’t appear to be over yet.'
  • Bart Yee on What switching to the common charger means for Apple (2 videos) - 'Two options for Apple: Apple could provide EU specific USB-C iPhone, iPads and AirPods charging cases (yeah, those too, did I miss anything else?) models and limit production of those to that region. Could charge a bit for it too as an EU specific value added change requirement, just to remind EU consumers of that fact? Or switch all iPhone, iPad and AirPods cases to USB-C ports and then include USB-C cords? My question is will they be USB-C to USB-A or all USB-C male-male cords? Cause hell if all US customers and elsewhere will have to buy new USB-C chargers. I’ve got at least 8 Anker multiport (2-4) USB-A home chargers and at least 8 car chargers scattered among 4 cars, none of the cars are newer than 2004 (for now) so they have no built in charging ports. I suppose we’ll have a wave of USB-A chargers and lightning cords hit the e-waste streams worldwide like VHS, CD/BluRay players, cable boxes, and cassette decks that came before them?'
  • Thomas Williams on Tim Cook meets Pope - 'The September/October issue of Popular Mechanics has a guest editor, Tim Cook. It’s a fascinating issue and the extensive interview with Tim Cook is full of insights.'
  • Daniel Epstein on What switching to the common charger means for Apple (2 videos) - 'This is much ado about nothing overall. Apple’s big small decision will be whether they have a European IPhone model or just switch all the IPhones to USBC. I do think they still need a hardwire port for data and charging options. Many cables will be sold but almost all chargers will work with proper cable. But Apple is correct that for the short term there will be little innovation in this area. At least USBC is better than the various smaller USB options.'
  • Robert Stack on Apple's anti-union offensive runs afoul of the N.L.R.B. - '@Michael: “continue being somewhat relevant”. Good to see you coming around to my perspective on the NYT. 😉 Yes, their tech coverage is terrible (ever since Pogue left). And their editorials sometimes are way off base too. But there is still a lot of great reporting to be found there. And on another positive note (potentially), Shira Ovide, the On-Tech columnist who was so bad I had to stop reading her, has left. Maybe they’ll get someone better – hope springs eternal, right? I’d be even more hopeful if Brian Chen would say adios too…'
  • David Emery on What switching to the common charger means for Apple (2 videos) - 'I wonder if the Eurocrats have calculated the large number of Lightning cables that are being obsoleted. Now to be fair, since one of our iPads is USB-C and the other is Lightning, and since my wife’s new iPhone 14 has USB-C to Lightning, I’m already dealing with a lot more cables than I was when it was all USB-A to Lightning. But I remain unconvinced by the Eurocrats’ logic here, particularly since I switched to a single multi-port charger (3rd party) after Apple stopped including chargers in their boxes.'
  • Thomas Williams on India, already an iPhone exporter, will be making AirPods as well - 'There other potential benefits from successfully raising Apple’s presence in India. India produces more films than the US, there are many film-making centers besides Bollywood, including Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, to name two. If they can be enticed to produce programs & films for Apple TV+, say a new Mahabharata series or just more thrillers, subscriptions could skyrocket. India productions are also prized in Africa and the Middle East.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I personally do not think this is the time to introduce any new AR products now, there are too many negatives to consumer demand for a new high priced device to compete for discretionary dollars. The other reason is there has not been articulated the killer Apps and use cases for AR AND this would provide more time for Apple to get BOM prices lower over time. If there will be an October event or press releases, should happen within the next two weeks to provide for ordering and delivery in time for Christmas.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - '“Do you see the last two days of trading as a bear market rally or the start of the market turning higher?” “Ah, the crystal ball, she is somewhat cloudy” SWAG, I think there will be some slow choppy movement higher for AAPL and by extension, any indexes which Apple is part of. This will work towards earnings on October 27. There may be dips with any negative economic, Russian War, or further news. I expect a trading range between $137-$157, maybe $160. Selling pressure from RMDs, year end expenses and maybe tax harvesting will keep a lid or ceiling on maximum price gains. Now when and what Apple reports for Q4 earnings AND Q1 guidance will determine the rest of this quarter’s trajectory, at least from Apple’s business side. IMO, as long as Apple and the market feel Apple’s fundamentals are reasonable, there will be support price wise long term. There will be many to paint whatever is said in a negative light so sentiment is fragile until inflationary pressures are reduced to the Fed’s satisfaction. An October event and persistent positive demand would be good news. But if Apple misses or guides negatively, the market will not be kind, and the indexes concurrently will suffer. No matter what, we will repeat this cycle of thought again in early to mid Q2 2023 as Q1 earnings come into play and the Russian-Ukrainian war drags to a 1 year period. Of course, any major escalation like tactical nuclear weapons use would be a black swan event for financial markets and a huge external monkey wrench. Same with any worsening or deadliness of Covid. IMO the broader market can pull down AAPL or Vice-versa, but AAPL may rise faster than the overall market.'