Bill Donahue on Horace Dediu: Where is Nvidia in a decade? - 'Obviously one has to ignore all the circular financing that Nvidia’s involved in to decide it’s the best company of the future. And that Nvidia’s sales will quake if OpenAI craters, or the AI-investor world wakes up to the fact that there’s no proprietary advantage to any of the mega-scaler LLMs out there (and therefore no business or investment moat), and they are all floating on a buildout of data-centers that have an operational lifespan of 3 or 4 years before they become technologically obsolete and unprofitable. Where will Nvidia be in 10 years? I’d say it’s impossible to tell. But I’m betting heavily that there will be a full-blown shakeout among the big AI stock-plays long before that.'
on Horace Dediu: Where is Nvidia in a decade? - 'Here’s an IEEE Spectrum article on ‘small AI models’. Think of these as great iOS Apple Intelligence enabled applications. https://spectrum.ieee.org/small-language-models-ai-pharmaceuticals'
on Horace Dediu: Where is Nvidia in a decade? - 'Hap, very interesting. Thanks for posting. “The conversation has now changed” is significant. Watching that video commentary is reassuring, because it reminds me that Apple is addressing A.I. very soberly and carefully. As the consumer’s preeminent gatekeeper who actually gives a damn about user’s privacy – they are taking their time to apply it appropriately, and will come out ahead as a result – as will Apple investors like us. MY TAKE Nobody was asking for AI. There are maybe 7 guys in Silicon Valley who’ve been shoving AI down the world’s throat. Half of them act like, or are sociopaths, some are ‘on the spectrum’ – while several are both. I mean, Sam, Alex , Thiel, Mark and Elon are bonafide – with a lack of empathy that could rival Vladimir’s. The daily hyperventilating by the financial media and the drooling by the casino-ologists on Wall Street (Yes, I made that word up) is more hyperbolic than a super-pac of hungry hyenas with too much of other people’s money to chew on. If I was a conspiracy nut, I’d say there are AI aliens from the great beyond remotely manipulating the human race to replace itself and evolve into AIs … just like them. Even if not true, it could make a cool sci-fi movie. Just sayin’'
on Ming-Chi Quo: The foldable iPhone will sell out on Day 1 - 'Look forward to hearing your impressions.'
on Horace Dediu: Where is Nvidia in a decade? - 'I’m too old to vote for something that I won’t be able to have the satisfaction of proving myself right! 🙂'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'As Joseph said Apple is up solidly today. The Monday morning “Premarket: Apple is red” trading often seems to change later after the market opens. And I have an impression it really coincides with the closing of the European market. Of course it is not a perfect pattern and I wouldn’t try and trade on it with serious money. Given Thursday’s rise it wouldn’t be unreasonable for the stock to consolidate its recent gains. But apparently we still have some momentum. Just recovering to the ATH is nice but I wouldn’t be surprised if we go a bit further on the ATH.'
on Ming-Chi Quo: The foldable iPhone will sell out on Day 1 - 'I’ll be buying an 18 Pro but I’d be delighted if both the Pro and folding iPhone sell like hotcakes'
on Horace Dediu: Where is Nvidia in a decade? - 'I continue to follow Errol Brandt at kiraa.ai. In a recent post he claims that companies will tire of 1) the expense of AI, and 2) the loss of privacy when their data is run through the cloud. If Brand’s approach gets some traction, that could be of great benefit to Apple. “Did Alex Karp Just Agree With Me?”: https://youtu.be/fVC-z4ptOlk'
on Premarket: Apple is red - '“Premarket: Apple is red” Um, Apple is not only solidly green, it’s gotten within $3.20 of its ATH. IMO, he selloffs following the WWDC are two of the dumbest selloffs ever – and apparently Mr. Market agrees with me….'
on Horace Dediu: Where is Nvidia in a decade? - 'Is Horace right? He implies that Nvidia can’t be the best over, say, the next 50 years and will certainly not do as well as Apple? (I wish the WSJ had specified the length of time they meant by “future” but they didn’t; I pick 50 years arbitrarily.) It’s easy to agree with Horace that ranking Apple, one of only three companies with a CAGR of 20% + on average over 30 years (the other two being Berkshire which did it for 55 years, and Microsoft) at #12 seems silly. 11 other companies will do better than Apple? Possible, but the WSJ claims to know which 11 companies those are, which I am sure they don’t. But picking the top company is tricky. Any company can suffer a bad CEO transition (Apple’s been there, done that), failure to pivot fast enough (looking at you, Intel), or suffer any of a range of calamities that could knock it out of the running for the top spot. Similarly, can a company that got lucky (in phones or chips, for example) extend that win over half a century? And if so, which one will be the winner? I am less sanguine that anyone can know for sure, even as we can agree that Apple (and I would add Nvidia) will be in the top 5. Apple stands at the intersection of consumers and technology, as Horace points out, a great place to be. But we can’t know whether some other company might elbow its way into that spot and nudge Apple aside. Nvidia is already working on PCs, SpaceX is already working on phones, for example. In any case, I am conducting a survey. I’d be interested in other people’s answers to that question: what company will have the best return/CAGR over the next half century?'
on Wedbush's Daniel Ives has become a merchant bank - 'Sigmund Warburg would be proud. Prediction, disaster incoming.'
on Still no Siri AI for EU, despite Tim Cook's efforts - 'I want to see Apple stand firm on this, stare them down. I want some European pols to lose elections over this. What EU regulators (and some past U.S. regulators) fail to understand is that, on safety and privacy and matters, most Apple customers trust Apple primarily, more than we trust any government or competing enterprise. We want Apple to protect us FROM these other actors, not the other way around. The EU seems to believe they are promoting free choice here, when what they are doing will end up being the opposite of that.'
on Ming-Chi Quo: The foldable iPhone will sell out on Day 1 - 'I’m going to upgrade to an iPhone 18 Plus and continue using an iPad for content consumption. This combination extends battery life with a larger screen, and won’t cost near as much as a foldable. Oh, I received my new iMac on Thursday.'
on The iPhone 17's near-record run won't last much longer - 'The iPhone 17 is a very solid phone and will continue to be sold by the carriers long after 18 starts shipping. I did a check at Verizon.com this weekend and customers can get new iPhones all the way back to iPhone 13.'
