Recent Comments

  • Bart Yee on Why Gene Munster is not worried about early iPhone production cuts - 'Cross posted here for comments: Regarding Home hardware article from a few days ago: “The Apple Store has already tipped its hand with a “PRE-ORDER 10.16” banner, signaling that the hardware is ready for prime time.” NO, no, NO!, this isn’t the preorder date for new Home hardware which hasn’t even been announced yet, it’s the preorder date for the iPhone Duo, and that has been well known for weeks. There’s even “Get Ready” early setup times: “Monday, October 12, through Thursday, October 15, 2026 – You can pre-select your color, storage capacity, carrier details, trade-in, and payment method ahead of time.” Now whether during the Home hardware presumed announcement or event October 13, Apple decides to coincide Home hardware preordering or availability with the same October 16, 2026 date (unlikely IMO, it’s confusing, cluttering or otherwise detracts and pulls focus from iPhone Duo) or moves launch to a different and later date so Home launch can occupy mindspace on its own and give time for potential buyers to think it over (much more likely), Apple will coordinate those two deftly. In fact, I expect Home products to ramp up slowly, then faster over the next 2-4 months as the hardware rolls out and Apple educates would be users on how it ties together. Plus a lot of folks won’t buy until hardware reviews from tech, fintech, and influencers give users concrete ideas and ways the Home hardware works and integrates. They beauty of that is hardware revenues begin in Apple’s Q1 FY2027 and run over to Q2 and beyond, adding additional and incremental revenues in succeeding quarters, in addition to iPhone 18 base and Air, 18e, model sales. If financial analysts had trouble figuring out Apple’s revenue streams and YoY comparisons, Apple’s just disrupted all of that. Whether by design or being forced to by memory costs, IMO, Apple’s making the most of this opportunity and planning rollouts that work for both users and Apple. Typical well thought out execution. Oh, and one other side benefit – Apple dominates the consumer tech space for months on end, especially during Samsung’s and other company’s most important hardware events. IMO, brilliant! And yes, the shouts of “Apple’s late, already been stuff like this for years, Apple didn’t invent it first, etc.”, true, but it will show the home space for what it is, fractured, fragmented, and portly supported and integrated, completely ready for disruption by Apple, and ready to be integrated by Apple.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple is not taking the smart home sub route - '“The Apple Store has already tipped its hand with a “PRE-ORDER 10.16” banner, signaling that the hardware is ready for prime time.” NO, no, NO!, this isn’t the preorder date for new Home hardware which hasn’t even been announced yet, it’s the preorder date for the iPhone Duo, and that has been well known for weeks. There’s even “Get Ready” early setup times: “Monday, October 12, through Thursday, October 15, 2026 – You can pre-select your color, storage capacity, carrier details, trade-in, and payment method ahead of time.” Now whether during the Home hardware presumed announcement or event October 13, Apple decides to coincide Home hardware preordering or availability with the same October 16, 2026 date (unlikely IMO, it’s confusing, cluttering or otherwise detracts and pulls focus from iPhone Duo) or moves launch to a different and later date so Home launch can occupy mindspace on its own and give time for potential buyers to think it over (much more likely), Apple will coordinate those two deftly. In fact, I expect Home products to ramp up slowly, then faster over the next 2-4 months as the hardware rolls out and Apple educates would be users on how it ties together. Plus a lot of folks won’t buy until hardware reviews from tech, fintech, and influencers give users concrete ideas and ways the Home hardware works and integrates. They beauty of that is hardware revenues begin in Apple’s Q1 FY2027 and run over to Q2 and beyond, adding additional and incremental revenues in succeeding quarters, in addition to iPhone 18 base and Air, 18e, model sales. If financial analysts had trouble figuring out Apple’s revenue streams and YoY comparisons, Apple’s just disrupted all of that. Whether by design or being forced to by memory costs, IMO, Apple’s making the most of this opportunity and planning rollouts that work for both users and Apple. Typical well thought out execution. Oh, and one other side benefit – Apple dominates the consumer tech space for months on end, especially during Samsung’s and other company’s most important hardware events. IMO, brilliant!'
  • Richard Gayle on Saturday Apple video: Steve Jobs, master storyteller - 'Steve Jobs’ return to WWDC in 1997, when he was just an advisor, was one of the greatest presentations ever, and it shows all aspects of what is discussed in this storytelling video. It is this response to a hostile question that reveals so much — his vision, his humanity, his rapport, and his ability to command our attention. Without any theatrical displays to distract. He is not some authority on high coming down from the mountain to give us the future. He is just a man trying to do what is best and recognizing he may not always succeed. But he and his team will try anyway. He takes one of the worst nightmares of public speaking and turns it into a positive. It gives me chills everytime I see it. His masterfu, extemporaneous reply reveals why no one else has been able to copy him. He really did Think Different.'
  • Bart Yee on Saturday Apple video: Steve Jobs, master storyteller - 'For another day or another post, despite how much Jobs is lauded as a visionary, design and product guy, and a pretty good CEO of an iconic company, tons of people hate/hated him for his management style, his treatment of his family and particularly his daughter, and by many accounts and retelling, his harsh treatment of employees. Just look in the comments to the posted video for those who have receipts about Jobs public and private behaviors that created those reactions, not unlike how many people feel about Apple as a company today. Yet when I went down that rabbit hole to understand it, I never knew or understood what shaped some of that behavior, his denial of his daughter for so long, and eventual reconciliation of sorts, along with his treatment of people, until I learned he was an orphan, adopted, how he grew up, how experiences shaped him and his thinking (different), and his meteoric rise in fame, public persona vs private reality, and how being different works positively AND negatively to your story and legacy. One thing Gemini gave me was that people assign their feelings about someone and never waver or change it, even when the person evolves and does change, as most of us do. This chosen or believed identity persistence never allows for changes or growth to be acknowledged. That’s why some haters hate and never change that stance. Here’s a few of my non-deeper explorations: share dot google/aimode/ 6qsbAMGYcIOBTKApD share dot google/aimode/ 4DFkVmXRylud6nZq3 share dot google/aimode/ zhscmLJh53IQy0QvD share dot google/aimode/ zA6SPkHxVd8rAKWTN share dot google/aimode/ yoGEwcpq7v2wpaN5P share dot google/aimode/ WgrqFWdg0Ir53Ui9J share dot google/aimode/ D764aIfkG38Snaf2j'
  • Joseph Bland on IDC: As the PC market shrank, Apple gained share - 'Thanks for doing the math, Bart! Upvoted!'
  • Dan Scropos on Why Gene Munster is not worried about early iPhone production cuts - 'The current data points across the board are positive. Every single one of them. Orders for iPhone are strong, the Duo is virtually a new and separate segment that will increase switchers, the Watch is selling well and Apple is introducing a far deeper and more serious Home ecosystem. The partnership with Gemini is the linchpin to the next 2-3 years. It’s helping both companies, but it solves Apple’s AI woes. They have privacy and safety guard railing in spades, and now they have this hybrid foundational model that has both brains (Gemini) and stateless anonymity (Apple). Combined, you have the perfect model, with Apple learning more and more everyday and coming closer to owning the entire stack.'
  • Bart Yee on Saturday Apple video: Steve Jobs, master storyteller - 'Here’s the only other video on Apple in “The Art of Storytelling” channel so far, a breakdown of why grammar didn’t win out in the “Think Different” ad campaign and how it may have helped save Apple in 1997. https://youtu.be/WcEAGA_ca8k?is=2fR2spuBD6O5xuhF'
  • Bart Yee on Saturday Apple video: Steve Jobs, master storyteller - 'I follow this channel for really fun and insightful storytelling commentary and analysis of Star Trek: The Next Generation episodes and characters. Imagine my delight to see this analysis of Steve Jobs’ most important media appearances, highlighting some of Steve’s natural gifts as a storyteller and visionary. A fascinating and thoughtful review, highly recommended. The channel also delves into Star Wars, Hitchcock, Lord of the Rings, Music in films, Disney, even Casablanca, Severance and Pluribus, all of which I haven’t had a chance to view yet. If they’re as good as this one about Jobs, they will be fun viewing. Wonder how they would look and sound on a new Duo?'
  • Rodney Avilla on Saturday Apple video: Steve Jobs, master storyteller - 'I’m a Steve Jobs fan, but sometimes it seems like the fish keeps getting bigger and bigger. Even so, I still like hearing them.'
  • Charles A. on Saturday Apple video: Steve Jobs, master storyteller - 'With the upcoming event in TriBeCa (Apple store?), I have a hunch and a hope that this could be a sort of mini experiment at testing out a return to real-time streaming!'
  • Gregg Thurman on Saturday Apple video: Steve Jobs, master storyteller - '”Ternus should go back to live presentations.” I agree, even if he’s not Steve Jobs. Anything would be better than the ‘wooden Indian’ presentations of late.'
  • Mark Visnic on Saturday Apple video: Steve Jobs, master storyteller - 'Excellent! Storytelling and charisma occupy the foundation of innovation. Steve Jobs was the master and all of humankind suffered a loss when he passed. I appreciated the disses of the ridiculous Zuckerberg. The closest we see now is Jensen. Ternus should go back to live presentations.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Why Gene Munster is not worried about early iPhone production cuts - 'Most of the time I find Munster’s analysis flat, uninspiring, but in this, Munster’s analysis is multidimensional, whereas Nikkei’s (and his peers) are one dimensional.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Saturday Apple video: Steve Jobs, master storyteller - 'I’ve often wondered why Apple’s product intro’s were, or used to be, so good. There’s been a lot of speculation that Ternus will be successful because, like Jobs, he’s product guy. Or could it be that Ternus is a story teller in his own way? Or that, in addition to being a great manager, he has more in common with Jobs than people currently recognize? We shall see.'
  • Rick Povich on IDC: As the PC market shrank, Apple gained share - 'Nice work, Bart!'
  • Bart Yee on IDC: As the PC market shrank, Apple gained share - 'Q3 CY2026 vs 2025 Mac sales IDC 2026 – 5.9M 9.5% vs 2025 – 6.7M 8.5% -11.3% Omdia 2026 6.774M 11.7% vs 2025 7.637M 10.4% -11.3% Note Omdia reports 0.874M > Mac shipments than IDC Now calculate rough Mac ASP’s for Q3 CY2025 w/Mac Revenue of $8.726B: 2025 Mac ASP IDC $1302 Omdia $1143 To calculate Q3 2026 potential revenues, we have to account for price increases & mix Recall that all these price increases were in June 2026, so entire July-Sept quarter had all price increases, base models; higher DRAM and/or storage = higher prices: MacBook Neo $100 +16.7% MacBook Air 13” $200 +18.2% MacBook Pro $300 +17.7% Mac Studio M-Max $500 +25% Mac Studio Ultra $1300 +32.5% Based on prior buying patterns but somewhat affected by the Neo, here’s Gemini’s prediction of Mac Product mix: MacBook Air 45-50% MacBook Neo 25-30% MacBook Pro 18-22% iMac & Mac Mini 3-4% (Due to supply constraints + pull forward Q2 sales + late Sept refresh) Mac Studio 1-2% (Supply constraints on highest configs) iMac 1-2% So based on mix & factoring in maybe 10% higher ASP w/self-upgrade from base to higher DRAM/Storage, let’s say base ASP increase was 18.2%, adding an extra 5% to 10% = 19-20%. So let’s go conservative and use 18% to 19% higher ASP & run Q3 2026 numbers for extrapolated Mac Revenue: IDC 5.9M x ($1302 x 1.18 or 1.19) = $9.06B to $9.14B, ~+4.3% Omdia 6.774M x ($1143 x 1.18 or 1.19) = $9.14B to $9.21B, ~+5.2% Either is a Mac slowdown from March quarter 6% increase and massive June Quarter 29% YoY increase w/sales getting ahead of price increases, & the 12.6% increase seen in Q3 CY2025 YoY. Now let’s compare ASP’s of Q2 CY2026 & 2025 based on Omdia’s numbers & Apple’s reported revenues: Omdia 7.257M 11.1% vs 6.274M 9.2% +15.9% share YoY Mac Rev Q2 CY2026 $10.352B vs $8.046B Q2 ASP’s $1427 vs $1282 Compare w/IDC & Omdia Q3 ASP’s IDC $1543 vs $1302 Omdia $1354 vs $1143 Avg IDC & Omdia, we get ASP $1449 vs $1223, pretty darn close to Q2’s known ASP’s, despite price increases. I think this shows there could be some upside above 5% increase in Mac Revenues. Gemini estimates an ASP boost to an estimated $1500 to $1580, ranging higher than IDC ASP numbers. Based on $1580 ASP, Gemini gives revenue range for Q3 2026 of $9.32B +6.7% based on IDC shipments to $10.7B tops and +22.6% based on Omdia data. That would be an extraordinary result! It’s unclear what Wall Street expects of Mac revenues given the opposing numbers of lower sales by 11% vs price increases above 17-21% depending on product mix and Apple user self-upsell on memory & storage despite the costs. I think high single to low double digit rev increases would be a win-win. Mark this post and let’s compare to reported results.'
  • Bart Yee on IDC: As the PC market shrank, Apple gained share - 'Here’s Omdia’s slightly different take on the Global PC market for Q3 2026: https://omdia.tech.informa.com/pr/2026/oct/global-pc-shipments-fall-21percent-in-3q26-as-pull-forward-demand-subsides The latest research from Omdia shows that worldwide shipments of desktops, notebooks, and workstations declined sharply in 3Q26, falling 21.2% year-on-year to 58.1 million units. Desktop shipments (including desktop workstations) fell 23.5% to 11.7 million units, while notebook shipments (including mobile workstations) declined 20.6% to 46.4 million units. In 3Q26, Global PC shipments faced sharpest decline since 1Q23 “After sustained pull-forward activity buoyed the PC market in the first half of the year, this sharp drop in shipment volumes comes as no surprise,” said Ishan Dutt, Research Director at Omdia. “The scale of the decline is consistent with what the industry signaled throughout the last earnings cycle, with leading OEMs forecasting double-digit unit contractions in H2 and retailers reporting double-digit increases in average selling prices (ASPs) alongside falling sales. The impact of upstream component cost increases has now fully worked its way through to end-market pricing, with consumers and IT decision-makers responding accordingly. On the supply side, vendors and their ODM partners began scaling back production in 3Q, while channel partners continued working through elevated inventory levels.” PC material costs increased by over 40% for all price points Omdia forecasts the PC market to decline 24% year-over-year in 4Q26 with a further 7% decline expected for full-year 2027. Despite most leading vendors experiencing double-digit declines in 3Q26, the rankings remained largely unchanged both sequentially and year on year. Lenovo remained in the top spot, shipping 14.9 million units and maintaining a 26% market share. HP recorded the largest decline among the top vendors at 31%, ranking second with shipments of 10.3 million units. Its market share fell to 18%, nearly three percentage points lower than a year earlier. Dell remained in third place, shipping 7.6 million units accounting for 13% of the market. Apple held fourth position, with shipments of 6.8 million units, down 11% year on year. However, it gained more than one percentage point of market share as its premium positioning helped limit the impact of higher prices. Asus rounded out the top five, recording the smallest decline among the leading vendors, with shipments of 5.4 million units and its market share improving to 9.3% year on year.” So Apple has about an 11% decline in shipments/sales, gains a percentage point of share of a smaller market pie, BUT had raised prices by $100 or 17% on Mac Neo, $200 or 18% on MacBook Air, and 17.6% $300 on MacBook Pro and $500 or 25% on Mac Studio M4. Mac Studio M3 Ultra was even higher. So despite sales number being down somewhat and certainly less than most except Asus, Apple’s Mac revenues may be offsetting by higher prices. I’d look for Mac revenues to be flat to slightly higher.'
  • Robert Stack on Nikkei Asia strikes again - '“We won’t get fooled again!” – Pete Townsend'
  • Daniel Epstein on IDC: As the PC market shrank, Apple gained share - 'I read this article on another site and couldn’t find the Apple info mentioned at all. So Apple gained share even as sales for the quarter where down 11% if the numbers are to be believed. Of course given the price increases it is hard to judge what the revenue would work out to plus it is hard to trust IDC numbers on Apple unless they come out after an earnings report. See Joseph’s comment about that.'
  • Joseph Bland on IDC: As the PC market shrank, Apple gained share - 'Trust IDC’s numbers about as far as you can throw Donald Trump. IMO.'
  • Bart Yee on Nikkei Asia strikes again - 'AAPL was down as low as $330.70, down almost $10 from $340.42 close yesterday. AAPL closed today at $336.74, down only $3.78, -1.11%. Volume was heavier at 35.6M but still only 79% of average, about on par with the last 20 sessions. A small wag downward with more wags upward to come. For some shorts, maybe they made some money. For some quick thinking investors, AAPL was temporarily discounted for a nice entry point or Apple to buy it back. At less than -1.25%, a fair nothing burger after the initial “shock value” of the “report”. Remember, without need to build iPhone 18 base and Air, Apple has full commitment of Foxconn resources to build the 18 Pro’s and Duo, plus any iPhone 17’s and below, if needed. Who knows, maybe Apple OVER-estimated demand (but not worse than previous models) and is trimming production to manage costs and components OR shifting them to Duo, only Apple knows for sure.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Nikkei Asia strikes again - '”What to do?” Recovery is starting earlier than usual. With less than an hour to go to complete today’s session, AAPL has recovered all but about $2.00 of its ~$10.00 decline this morning. “What to do?” Look for causation (it wasn’t Nikkei’s bogus report), determine if the “cause” has legs, then, as most often is the case, ignore it.'
  • Stephen Gordon on Mark Gurman: John Ternus' first five weeks as Apple CEO (video) - 'Not gonna lie, I like this podcast.'
  • Stephen Gordon on Mark Gurman: John Ternus' first five weeks as Apple CEO (video) - 'Giving this a listen now on the Overcast app. Not sure if I’ll listen weekly, but I appreciate the access as someone who doesn’t subscribe to Bloomberg. At some point it will probably be pushed behind a paywall.'
  • Richard Gayle on Nikkei Asia strikes again - 'Apple Insider agrees with our consensus. Right on schedule, sources claim iPhone 18 Pro orders have been cut “There’s a reason we’ve built some contacts in China, and refuting supply chain sources saying that demand for the iPhone 18 Pro is so low that Apple has cut back production is one of them.”'
  • Gregg Thurman on Mark Gurman: John Ternus' first five weeks as Apple CEO (video) - '”Where will Ternus take Apple?” Why bother asking? You won’t understand the long term goals and you’re only going to berate it no matter what he does.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Nikkei Asia strikes again - '“ Until AAPL bothers to speak up, this will continue” I am sure you realize why they can’t speak up when misleading info is published. If Apple had a policy to correct such info, that would open the flood gates of false stories just trying to pry more and more info from Apple. And if they respond to some articles, the non responses would be interpreted as responses, and probably not in the way Apple would like.'
  • Neal Guttenberg on Nikkei Asia strikes again - 'Apple short Supplier report For fable Under table? What to do? Apple won’t sue Money made Story fade'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Shares are now down pre-market $9.19 or 2.70 at $331.23 about 15 minutes before the opening bell. We’ve seen worse actions over rumors before. The broad market is positive this morning and the reports about component orders make little sense this early in the production ramp, in my view. Let’s see how this plays out in morning trading…'
  • Gregg Thurman on Nikkei Asia strikes again - 'I wouldn’t get overly lathered up by this decline. Trading action since September 9 (100 trading sessions) AAPL has traded at, or above, $340 five times (including intraday highs). Each time AAPL has declined an average of $10 in the 2 or 3 days afterwards, only to rebound shortly thereafter. Today’s pre-market action is a classic case of AAPL overrunning its trading channel begun September 10 (~$316/~$345). More narrowly, in the last ~dozen sessions AAPL has traded between ~$325 and ~$345. IOW, today’s decline is not out of the ordinary. We may be giving Nikkei too much credit for this decline.'