Fred Stein on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/18-5/22/26) - 'Using Google’s search bar, hence their AI: “OpenAI urgently requires immense amounts of capital and will heavily rely on both venture funding rounds and a future IPO to sustain operations. Despite closing a historic $122 billion funding round, the company projects cumulative losses of hundreds of billions of dollars this decade as it builds out massive data centers and infrastructure.” My take: They won’t start another lawsuit.'
on Apple, TSMC and Taiwan's 'silicon shield' - 'I think it likely that Xi can read the tea leaves – Russia attacks a smaller but more nimble adversary whose novel high-tech approaches stymie Russia’s military might. No success. The economy destroyed. The US attacks a smaller but more nimble adversary whose novel high-tech approaches stymie the US military might. No success. The economy in shambles. Does Xi want to repeat that with China? Not only would Taiwan not be easy, but the economic repercussions would destroy China’s economy. I think he is smarter than the other 2 leaders. He can have all the global impact he wants by really doing nothing. Heck, he can appear to be the moderating force in the world by really doing little. Now, if he decided to attack Russia in the east, take Vladivostok, and regain all the territory they lost to treaties …'
on Blowback from Tim Cook's presence in Trump's China entourage - 'It’s okay, David. We never seem to have a problem agreeing to disagree. Oh, and yes, that was exactly the “path”, and the slippery slope, I was referring to.'
on Apple, TSMC and Taiwan's 'silicon shield' - 'I had 2 offices in China in the late ‘90s (Chendu and Beijing). Most of the business people I dealt with were ex-pat Taiwanese. It was their expertise that rebuilt China. Mainland China still depends on Taiwanese expertise, although the gap has shrunk tremendously. Mainland Chinese today aren’t as worried about PRC pushback as they were in the ‘90s. At the time I predicted Taiwan would subsume China. I didn’t take into account the resilience of the CCP, Xi Jinping and its lust for control. Oh, I successfully moved a Chinese family to the US. Mom and Dad became US citizen’s. Mom first (she wanted of there). Dad didn’t file his final papers for a few more years (he was reluctant to cut the cord, but his 2 sons had no memory of China when he became a US citizen). His oldest son is today a citizen of Sweden (interesting story).'
on Saturday Apple video: Do we get free Wi-Fi? (2011) - 'Such a considered, articulate and appropriate response – you do your job and I’ll do mine. Gone too soon'
on Apple, TSMC and Taiwan's 'silicon shield' - 'Is there’s a source to back up this claim that Cook was ‘privately’ briefed. Is this a leak or click bait speculation?'
on Apple, TSMC and Taiwan's 'silicon shield' - 'What scares me is the “Starting that war would just be a stupid thing to do, benefitting nobody.” Can anyone think of two recent wars that fall exactly into that category?'
on Apple, TSMC and Taiwan's 'silicon shield' - 'I find it hard to believe that China will attack Taiwan. Not that they aren’t interested. It is also good politics for them to do some saber rattling. It just seems that it would be immensely disruptive for them for so little benefit. But that hasn’t stopped others before them from doing similar things.'
on Base model iPhone 17 activations in China approach 30 million - 'Not “comment swinging”, it’s “come out swinging”, damn autocorrect.'
on Base model iPhone 17 activations in China approach 30 million - 'Additional color on Apple discounts for the 618 festival from WCCFTech: Rising RAM Costs Aren’t The Only Nightmare For Chinese Smartphone OEMs As Upcoming 618 Sale Has iPhone 17 Models Discounted By Up To $368 By Omar Sohail “As expected, the iPhone Air will receive the heftiest of discounts, which includes subsidies, but the iPhone 17 Pro lineup is also cheaper by $147. Prior to China’s 618 sale kicking off, MyDrivers has showcased a poster providing all the details as to the amount applied to various iPhone 17 models. To no one’s surprise, the iPhone Air, which has been the least popular device in the entire family, is discounted by up to 2,500 yuan, making it $368 cheaper when using direct currency conversion, and is listed at 5,299 yuan or $810. Fortunately, all of Apple’s other handsets will also be affordable during the 618 shopping festival. In short, the California-based giant will likely dominate the upcoming sales period, with the base iPhone 17 going for 5,299 yuan or $781. With this specific handset approaching 30 million activations in China, the latest price cut ensures that the iPhone 17 remains the most popular model from the lineup.” “Also, for those who want Apple’s top-tier iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max, the upcoming 618 sale has discounted both flagships by 1,000 yuan or $147. During the festival, the smaller iPhone 17 Pro will be sold for 7,999 yuan ($1,179) while the larger iPhone 17 Pro Max will be available for 8,999 yuan ($1,326). Looking at these reductions, it’s no secret that Apple will obtain a major foothold in China, a market that continues to hold major significance for the iPhone maker due to the sheer smartphone volume that circulates through it annually.” Excerpt From “Rising RAM Costs Aren’t The Only Nightmare For Chinese Smartphone OEMs As Upcoming 618 Sale Has iPhone 17 Models Discounted By Up To $368” Wccftech https://apple.news/AUc9imUP5RLKVcZHfQiVKQQ This material may be protected by copyright. No more mister nice guy, Apple is coming out swinging with attractive and aggressive promotions to push demand even further. Wouldn’t surprise me if they kept this up through the end of the year, plus have targeted colors attractive to Chinese buyers for the iPhone 18 intro in Early 2027. This will ensure the iPhone 17 base model has an even longer runway for sale, maybe it gets discounted $100 when the Pro Models get introduced. IMO, it’s going to be a robust China revenue 2026 fiscal year.'
on Apple, TSMC and Taiwan's 'silicon shield' - 'Well, there’s component production, and there’s assembly and test. Producing chips in the US won’t solve the assembly problem.'
on Base model iPhone 17 activations in China approach 30 million - 'Global Times link with more details on Apple sales promotions and how it competes against Huawei in the premium Chinese market, link sent to PED. Apple is going to comment swinging in China: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202605/1361027.shtml'
on Base model iPhone 17 activations in China approach 30 million - 'Apple is not going to waste the iPhone 17 momentum going into the China 618 celebration period, they’re going to be aggressively pushing sales and promotions. https://9to5mac.com/2026/05/15/apple-discounts-iphone-in-china-ahead-of-annual-618-shopping-festival/ “Apple discounts iPhone in China ahead of annual 618 shopping festival As it has done since at least 2021, Apple is discounting the iPhone in China as part of the country’s 618 shopping festival. Here are the details. Some models poised to reach the lowest prices since launch For the past few years, Apple has joined other major consumer electronics brands in taking part in one of China’s biggest annual shopping events: the 618 shopping festival. This is a major mid-year online retail event that began as a JD.com anniversary sale and has since expanded across the country’s largest e-commerce platforms. Last year, Apple offered limited-time trade-in discounts in China during the sales festival, while JD.com and other local online retailers listed iPhone 16 models with discounts of up to 2,530 yuan (roughly $351 at the time). That reportedly helped Apple reverse its earlier sales decline in the country. In Q1 2025, Apple had been the only major smartphone vendor to post a shipment decline in China, but by Q2, Canalys data showed iPhone shipments growing 4% year over year. This year, as reported by Global Times (via MacMagazine), Apple is getting an early start on the 618 shopping festival, with the iPhone 17 Pro series seeing a 1,000 yuan (roughly $146) price cut starting today. The report notes that JD.com is offering even steeper discounts: JD.com, one of China’s largest online retailers, showed on its Apple product self-operated flagship store that, after direct discounts and trade-in subsidies, some iPhone 17 Pro models could be purchased for as low as 6,999 yuan, the lowest level since the series was launched. The standard iPhone 17, Apple’s latest base-model flagship phone, also received its first notable price cut since release, with some versions priced at 4,499 yuan after multiple subsidies and trade-in offers. The report also cites an employee at an Apple outlet in Beijing who said that “the latest discounts could be combined with trade-in subsidies and platform promotions, with some models reaching their lowest prices since launch.” To read the Global Times’ full report, follow the link in the next post.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Fantastic! My token qty Limit Sell of 303 sold at 303.11. At 1:26pm Texas Time 5/15/2026. I sold a wee bit when it was at 290 & before that when it was at 282. Goodness gracious! Not enough for me to retire. Waitaminnit-I am retired! LOL'
on Apple, TSMC and Taiwan's 'silicon shield' - 'I’m not sure AppleInsider has the level of investigative journalism that I would put much value in their opinion on China’s plans.'
on Apple closes above $300 for the first time - 'Apple’s short interest as a percentage of float is 0.92% as of April 30th and days to cover ratio is 2.9 days which indicates a short squeeze isn’t likely to occur anytime soon.'
on Chinese press highlights Trump's recent stakes in Apple and Nvidia - 'Congress are, at the moment, a bunch of lapdogs, which is an unfortunate insult to lapdogs. My 69 pound pittie still believes that he is a lapdog!'
on Blowback from Tim Cook's presence in Trump's China entourage - 'OK, so before I determined (or chose to believe) that this is largely a parody, I looked at some math: Using the formula: (From DuckDuckGo “unemployment rate calculation”) Calculate the Unemployment Rate: Unemployment Rate = (7 million / 157 million) x 100 Unemployment Rate ≈ 4.46% So this assumes that there are roughly 7-7.5 million Americans available to be “conscripted”. (DuckDuckGo AI says “162.62 million” are employed.) (From DuckDuckGo “chinese birth rate per day”) “China’s birth rate is approximately 50,416 live births per day in 2026” We (USA) cannot compete with China on that front.'
on Blowback from Tim Cook's presence in Trump's China entourage - 'To be fair, if you are saying: “That said, folks here know my position: Apple should never have gone down this path” … … to mean attending meetings with Trump, I am sure that that is one reason Tim Cook is willing to take Apple’s money. Working with Trump is just something he “has to do” whether he likes it or not, because Trump is a vindictive (“sounds like Trump”). To incur Trump’s wrath is more damaging to or wasteful of Apple’s resources than it is to get on a plane, shake a few hands (probably more Chinese friends than Trump has), and get on with caring for Apple. I feel strongly that the board position is there to allow Cook to do for Apple what needs to be done while Trump runs amok.'
on Blowback from Tim Cook's presence in Trump's China entourage - '“That said, folks here know my position: Apple should never have gone down this path” … Which “path” are you referring to? Partnering with China on manufacturing? Desiring to sell Apple Products to China? Even when the process started, China had 1.2 billion population. The USA had 0.3, maybe as much as 0.35 billion population. It made all the sense in the world. Trying to keep an open mind, I ask again: “which path”?'
on Chinese press highlights Trump's recent stakes in Apple and Nvidia - 'Trump is what happens when you elect someone doesn’t respect tradition, and Congress doesn’t institutionalize tradition.'
on Kantar: Google's brand value overtakes Apple's - 'I agree with this. I’ve gotten some very useful AI summaries of searches using Google. That’s at work, anyway. DuckDuckGo also does well for me at home. (e.g. looking up “CMOS” because I was too lazy to type in all those words myself!)'
on Kantar: Google's brand value overtakes Apple's - 'I thought it was kind of interesting. I took more than three minutes, though, so that I could pause it and look at each “clump” of five companies from spot 100 to spot 11, after which the Top Ten were presented individually. It really goes to show that – even among the Top 100 businesses by brand value – there are “haves” and “have nots”. But you can also see that clearly enough in the Table that Philip included in his article: there is a pretty steep drop off in brand value after the Top Five. It may not be of interest to all, but I will not complain about getting that time back.'
on Chinese press highlights Trump's recent stakes in Apple and Nvidia - 'I though a sitting President was simply barred from investment activity during his/her (maybe someday) time in office. Like, by the SEC….'
on Kantar: Google's brand value overtakes Apple's - 'Not true. I know a fair number of people who are very fond of Google (and not just ex-employees with lots of stock 🙂 ) We don’t do ourselves any service by assuming everyone thinks as we do. Those Google fans are happy with Google Search, with Google services such as Maps or Flight, with Android and its features, with YouTube (even if they are just watching videos.) Google products and services usually work well, and many people are OK with the Google surveillance network in exchange for things that make their lives better.'
on Apple, TSMC and Taiwan's 'silicon shield' - '“My take: The need for US-made chips to be returned to Taiwan for completion shows high-level strategic planning. Wonder who worked that out.” I find this quite odd, too, actually, but I can acknowledge that I have somewhat similar situations where I work. Our primary manufacturing node is bipolar (AKA very old) technology, but we do have some BiCMOS designs (bipolar and Complementary Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor mixed together) that someone else manufactures for us. Some of those designs we test in-house (to protect that aspect of our IP), some we simply relabel as “our company” and ship as-is (so that all business and quality concerns come to us, rather than our contract manufacturer). Finally, there is a class where the contracted wafer is merely a substrate for us to put our “special sauce” onto before they get tested and shipped out to customers. So I can see how similar processes may apply to TSMC.'
on Chinese press highlights Trump's recent stakes in Apple and Nvidia - 'Trump is a criminal enterprise. No way around it. “Donald Trump’s latest financial disclosures show that he or his investment advisers made more than 3,700 trades in the first quarter, a flurry totaling tens of millions of dollars and involving major companies that have dealings with his administration.” https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/trump-traded-nvidia-boeing-intel-030913697.html Insider trading for him, his family and close associates. What a racket.'
on Kantar: Google's brand value overtakes Apple's - 'Kantar does not understand Google’s business. It’s an advertising empire that happens to provide useful things to get people to see the ads it serves.'


