Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Part of the disappointing guidance for Qualcomm was ‘faster than anticipated declining revenue from Apple”, strongly suggesting Apple has perfected and now employing more and more of its C1, C1X, C2 and likley C2X or C3 modems in more and more products. This reduces Apple’s need to pay Qualcomm prices for their modem chips, but also reduces and eventually eliminates the onerous Qualcomm licensing fees based on total value of the device it is in rather than the cost of the chip itself. This was always an unfair hit on Apple vs other smartphone makers. While roundly mocked by others when Apple’s Intel modem initiative failed to produce a working 5G competitor, and after purchasing Intel’s modem group still took 5 years to get a comparable chip out, Apple now has control of its modem chips inhouse and accelerating. Assuming continued development and foundry access, Apple will be able to cut Qualcomm further out of the picture. A review of the Apple Modem Chips from Gemini: “Apple’s modem chip models include its custom in-house C-series designs alongside historical and ongoing reliance on Qualcomm components. Apple has begun transitioning select mobile devices to its own proprietary silicon to improve energy efficiency and data traffic responsiveness. Custom Apple Modem Models * Apple C1: Apple’s first in-house custom 5G/LTE cellular modem, debuting in the iPhone 16e to optimize power efficiency. * Apple C1X: An enhanced iteration featuring improved energy efficiency and significantly faster throughput speeds, included in devices like the iPhone Air and specific iPad Air models. * Apple C2: An advanced next-generation modem model expanding capabilities (such as prospective regional mmWave and satellite data integration) for upcoming device lineups. Qualcomm Modem Models (Historical & Current) * Qualcomm X80 / X71: High-end flagship 5G modems utilized across mainstream and Pro iPhone iterations (such as standard iPhone 16 and iPhone 17 Pro lines), maintained in regional variants where specific mmWave capabilities are required. * Legacy Qualcomm Series (X65, X60, X55, etc.): Used extensively in older iPhone generations (iPhone 12 through 15 series) prior to Apple’s custom silicon rollout. Current and Upcoming Modem Models * C2 Modem: Expected to debut in late 2026 models like the iPhone 18 Pro series and foldable devices. It aims to support higher-end features and potentially resolve the mmWave 5G gaps present in earlier in-house designs. Reports indicate Apple may use a split strategy in 2026—deploying Qualcomm modems in U.S. models requiring specific mmWave support while utilizing the C2 internationally. * Prometheus (Codename): Slated as a third-generation in-house modem project targeting 2027 releases, designed to match or exceed Qualcomm’s peak performance plus tightly integrate advanced AI wireless features and next-gen advanced satellite connectivity. * Supporting RF Systems (Carpo): Developed alongside its modems as a custom radio-frequency front-end system to handle multi-carrier optimization and power efficiency. Strategic Outlook * Qualcomm Phase-Out: Apple’s multi-year transition is shrinking Qualcomm’s component share faster than initially projected due to supply shifts, with agreements formally stretching into early 2027. * Ecosystem Integration: Following the path of Apple Silicon for Macs, these custom baseband and transceiver subsystems aim to maximize battery life and thermal headroom in tighter form-factors.” No commentary or rumors as to whether more iPads and/or Macs would get their own modem implementations but there are rumblings: * Future Mac and MacBook Integration: Apple is actively exploring the integration of its custom C-series modem blocks directly into M-series system-on-chip (SoC) architectures.This long-term architecture change is expected to finally enable cellular data connectivity options in future MacBooks and iPads. ((probably the higher end models first since they would entail their own phone numbers and data plans as opposed to tethering off of an iPhone))'
on Apple at $343.67: Flying above $5 trillion, again - 'Neal: In my observations through the years it takes about 3 weeks for results to be fully reflected in the share price. I’m not concerned about recent all-time highs. I’m concerned about management’s ability to deliver on the AI enhancements and updates to Siri displayed at WWDC and to be in position to deliver on the company’s expansive hardware update plans. Much of the world’s population will experience AI primarily through Apple devices. In my view, if Apple delivers as planned and expected, the company will make a strong case for the share price to continue to move higher.'
on Apple at $343.67: Flying above $5 trillion, again - 'Anybody with any feel about what Apple will need to report, earnings and guidance wise, in order to at least tread water. Especially with Apple sitting at its all time high, any opinions about what it will take to drive the share price higher? I sort of get the feeling that this will be a buy the rumor sell on the news kind of report, that no matter what Apple reports, anything short of announcing a sure fire plan for world peace will be viewed as a disappointment. Edit-I will very happy to be wrong about that'
on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings - 'Berkshire does offer BRK/B which trades just above $500.'
on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings - 'Maybe. Historically the stock splits happen at different times. The calendar doesn’t provide much guidance. Would they rather this happen under Tim Cook or would they give John Ternus the honor? Does it matter? June 16, 1987. 2:1 June 21, 2000. 2:1 February 28, 2005. 2:1 June 9, 2014. 7:1 August 28, 2020. 4:1'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I knew there was something wrong today. I waited patiently for earning to commence, only to find out I was off by 24 hours. I get to do this all over again tomorrow. Anybody following my musings since Sunday should NOT, at least until they reduce my pill count.'
on Apple at $343.67: Flying above $5 trillion, again - 'Microsoft came out with very good earnings and is up double digits in AH. Could be a good sign for tomorrow.'
on Apple at $343.67: Flying above $5 trillion, again - 'Seriously, seems the Fed announcement drove just about everything down.'
on Apple at $343.67: Flying above $5 trillion, again - 'Apple Buyback History so far “The company has returned over $1 trillion total to shareholders, cutting its share count by over a third.” “Total Repurchases: Apple has repurchased well over $850 billion of its common stock since the modern buyback program scaled up” So a quick search about Apple’s stock Buyback history shows they have cut their share count by about 1/3 since they started at a cost of 850 Billion. Share holder return is bigger as the dividend paid is a separate line item. It would be interesting to see if the stock would be approaching 5 Trillion in value if they had done something differently with the buyback. Would they have hit that value sooner or later. And does it really matter to the shareholders how well they handled it. Personally I think it does matter but could see other ways which I would be happy as well. For instance if they had changed the buyback ratio to Dividend payout a bit I would have a very good payout every year just from the dividend alone. Yes taxable. But if I sell small amounts of my holdings that is also taxable since my cost basis is very low. For the company it is a good problem to have that much profit but the market’s valuing of sums that large are not always guaranteed to be reflected in the stock price. And all the ratios we use like P/E would be screwed up which can cause confusion. And given the stocks dollar per share price getting close to where it has historically split in the past will we see a two or three to one split sometime in the near future bringing the share count increase to 29 Billion or 43 Billion shares available? That seems like a lot of shares to be available even at the lower price per share that would entail.'
on Apple at $343.67: Flying above $5 trillion, again - 'The number $5 trillion goosed my imagination. So I searched around for interesting comparisons. Apple’s enterprise value as measured by its stock market capitalization is now greater than the annual GDP of every EU country except Germany. And when Apple reaches $5.5 trillion it will surpass Germany. I do realize that GDP is an annual flow and not the true value of the German economy. You could argue that a better comparison would be to Apple’s annual gross revenue. But still …. It’s easy to understand why certain governments seem to be trying to “take Apple down.” They’ve got nothing like it in their own countries. They seem to tremble under the not unreasonable fear that big U.S. companies like Apple will swamp theirs eventually. It’s too bad they have yet to realize that the only good solution to this is on the supply side. They need to incentivize and seed competing homegrown companies. But for reasons I can’t say I understand, it seems there is little appetite for high-risk, high-reward strategies across the pond.'
on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings - '“ Apple is far from alone in “hiding behind” its true split-adjusted share value.” The only company I am aware of that doesn’t is Berkshire Hathaway, whose shares are about $760,000 per share. I once was gonna buy a few thousand dollars worth, but you’re right, psychologically. I did not feel like I was getting much (a small fraction of one share)'
