Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Most of the tech market is also green: MSFT +$30, +5.8% META +$10.48, +1.6% GOOGL +10.00, +3.6% AMZN +18.50, +7.6% NVDA -$2.18, -1.0% Chip stocks are off though MU -$26, no, -$45, -5.4% SK Hynix -6.7, —4.5.% Samsung -0.68% And AAPL at 7:50am pst is now up +21 to $353, +6.3%, wow!'
on Premarket: Apple is green - '”So much for “lame” guidance.” If people vote with their wallet, then Trump lost two elections yesterday. I’m proud to be an ex-Republican. The Trump experiment will forever stain the Party.'
on Apple price target changes - 'Are those price targets a year out? If so, then most of them figure that AAPL will be much worse off in a year than it is now. Somehow, I don’t believe that.'
on Apple price target changes - 'I still think Apple is a bit overpriced here, especially with the rally this am. I do think it can grow into its present valuation, hopefully sooner rather than later. I usually sell stocks in January to build back cash stores in retirement. Hopefully, the present price holds until at least January. These price targets seem to support the present share price.'
on What the midterm results mean for the AI buildout - 'Memory could get cheaper sooner than expected. But then there could be increased regulation and associated costs. I think while tech played a part in the election, I am not sure it was as major a part. What I am hoping is that we can follow an economic path without all the sideshows, diversions and u-turns.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'And with that said, AAPL jumps $18+ on the open to above $350 at 6:50am PST., +5.5%. So much for “lame” guidance.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Some quick points using Omdia’s reported Q4 CY2026 numbers: Q4 FY2026 iPhone ASP’s $57.583B rev/56.5M = $1019 vs 2025’s ASP = $49.085/56.5M = $869, a $150 jump. Total FY2026 iPhone sales via adding up Omdia’s reported numbers I get 256.3. Total FY iPhone revenues = $254.098 ASP = $991.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I was actually pretty pleased with AAPL’s performance yesterday and over the past three sessions. The typical run up to earnings, “buy the rumor and sell the news” by retail and institutional played out as usual, and then came the all important Guidance. No sugar coating, no creative finance or amortizations like Hyperscalers are pulling, just clear and conservative expectations given a lot of uncontrollable headwinds. Considering AAPL fell as much as $12-$15 or 4.4% in AH and remarked yesterday, I thought it pretty positive it finished only down $6.42 and less than 2%, a relatively muted response overall, and within the recent noise range of AAPL’s price activity. With the Democrat Blue Wave washing over the elections, and potential tariff unwinding, policy blunting, and regulations on AI infrastructure building and $$$$$ burning, I suspect a fair amount of AI investments are coming off while the getting is good (for now). That money is going either to sidelines or the ext best thing, which is market leader Apple. Other industries like oil companies, consumer staples, pharmaceuticals that are normal safe havens are still broadly affected by high energy costs, transportation costs, and geopolitical uncertainty, all being held hostage by the current President and his no-plan plan of slow ending (if at all) of the Middle East war. To do so with any compromise is losing face and admitting he’s gained little if anything, and lost plenty (collateral damage, he’d say, similar to describing American citizen spending power losses in the name of advancing his agenda). I think Apple will get some trading tailwind consideration here, and if any positive data on Duo production, iPhone 18 Pro sales, and general demand for any of the new product sales surfaces, AAPL benefits from improved sentiment. The only other thing that would help is if the dollar weakens against other currencies, making foreign exchange less of an issue for Apple’s international business or significant tariff reductions occurs.'
on Bloomberg calls Apple's Ternus 'timid' and 'scripted' - 'Considering Apple’s long long history of holding product information close to the vest and roadmaps even closer in pockets, it’s no wonder Ternus is NOT going to divulge any significant information to analysts or reporters. That’s not his job to stake his claim on how he’s going to lead the company, or how he’s going to push innovation, etc., not on an earnings call. IMO, Ternus is going to let his/Apple’s product announcements show in tangible and real ways where Apple is heading towards, and not by discussing potential concepts, prototypes, and possibilities until they’ve been soundly vetted, engineered, tested, and only then decided on whether they see the light of day outside of a lab. This constant desire of the media to somehow press to get a scoop out of an Apple CEO (Ternus), CFO (Parekh), COO (Khan), or Marketing (Joswiak), Hardware (Srouji), or software (Federighi) when one should understand these are professionals who are measured in their thoughts and disciplined in their responses is nothing short of ludicrous. Frankly, I thought all three (Ternus, Khan, Parekh) gave short but thoughtful responses within already established Apple norms. If you don’t like them, get on the call and ask a better question but don’t be surprised if you get a short and thoughtful but limited response too. Secrets just aren’t let out on earnings calls. Answers come in the form of concrete actions and products, everything else is just talk and idle speculation. David Lee would be better off just talking to and quoting Gurman instead.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'AAPL seems to be a ‘democrat’ stock and is up 6 points at $338 as I write this. Or maybe it’s just getting back to where it was last week because yesterday’s sell-off shouldn’t have happened in the first place.'
on Apple's solid Q4 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'Smart glasses Volumes of 7-9M would pull in about $3.4B in revenues at best, which is fine, it’s real, but it isn’t taking anything away from smartphone sales as it’s dependent on smartphone connection for most of its computing functions. Here’s the breakdown of how the revenues and profits flow: “The Smart Glasses Profit Split The profit breakdown between Meta and its manufacturing partner, EssilorLuxottica, reveals two entirely different financial structures. While EssilorLuxottica is generating immediate, highly profitable revenue from hardware sales, Meta is losing billions intentionally to subsidize the platform for the long term. Partner Financials: EssilorLuxottica EssilorLuxottica handles the retail, distribution, and manufacturing side of the glasses, making them the primary financial beneficiary of direct hardware sales. • The Numbers: In their Q3 earnings report, EssilorLuxottica disclosed for the first time that its wearables division (smart glasses and Nuance hearing tech) brought in €486 million ($546 million) in quarterly revenue, making up 6.5% of their total business. ((Gemini confirmed about 1.5M glasses sold in Q3. Maybe 500K/month? Revenue of about $546M/1.5M units = $364 ASP, consistent) • Profitability: This influx of hardware demand pushed their overall Q3 group revenue up 9% to €7.49 billion, beating Wall Street expectations and driving their free cash flow to multi-year highs. • The Margin Advantage: Unlike standard consumer tech companies that struggle with slim hardware margins, EssilorLuxottica leverages their massive global retail footprint and premium brand markups (Ray-Ban and Oakley) to secure remarkably high, stable profit margins on the physical frames. ((Good for them, an entirely new platform to make $545M in revenues and hopefully good margins on)) Meta Platforms: Reality Labs Meta treats hardware as a “break-even bait” customer acquisition tool rather than a standalone profit generator. They purposefully absorb heavy losses to build out the next big computing ecosystem. • The Deficit: In Q3, Meta’s Reality Labs division (which houses smart glasses and Quest VR) reported just $443 million in revenue but suffered an operating loss of $4.13 billion. • The Broader Picture: Reality Labs’ absolute operational losses are projected to hit between $18 billion and $19 billion for the full year of 2026, though management guides that these losses will narrow to roughly $15 billion in 2027 as infrastructure efficiencies settle in. • Meta’s True Monetization Strategy: Meta isn’t looking to make money off the $350 physical frames. Mark Zuckerberg explicitly stated that their road to profitability relies entirely on embedding Meta AI services, apps, localized search commerce, and virtual ad placement right in front of your eyes once user adoption hits critical mass. Meta covers the steep R&D bill to lock users into their AI ecosystem, while EssilorLuxottica books massive retail profits selling a hot fashion accessory.” Does this sound familiar? Didn’t META already do this for years with the Quest VR goggles, selling them at under $500 to get them out there to use (and leave in drawers), then try to build out the MetaVerse in the same multibillion dollar loss making fashion? While I would agree glasses have some acceptance advantages in public vs VR/AR type goggles, there’s little long term longevity, user engagement and use continuance data as yet. Will it be a novelty or will it stick, and will the creep factor be any obstacle? While Luxxotica is said to be ramping up production to eventually reach 20M annual sales, will that be enough for Meta to make any money on selling Meta apps and services into this proprietary and captured eyeballs audience / install base? Making up $15-$20B in losses with 15M-20M devices means generating $1000 revenue/device per year just to break even. Somehow my paper napkin figures don’t seem to make much economic reality, much like saying how AI as a commodity is going to create sufficient ROI vs hardware and datacenter investments. Am I wrong?'
on Apple's solid Q4 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'Bill said and quoted: “First, what the heck is Laura Martin referring to when she writes “META, OpenAI and others want to take AAPL’s 15%-30% rev share via glasses, and/or other new form factors”? Revenue share of what? And by what “new” but unidentified form factors, and how? This is an analysis??” It’s speculation, that smart glasses are somehow going to take share (market or revenues) away from somewhere where Apple’s products sell. I asked Gemini if smart glasses are a threat to any smartphone makers sales or revenues? “Do Smart Glasses Threaten Smartphone Sales? There is no evidence that smart glasses are cannibalizing or eating into smartphone sales. Instead of acting as a replacement, smart glasses currently function as a highly dependent smartphone accessory. The hardware dynamics explain why smartphones face zero threat from glasses today: • The Tethering Mandate: Smart glasses rely entirely on a companion app (like the Meta AI app) installed on a user’s phone to handle heavy computational processing, cellular data routing, translation features, and cloud access. • Battery Life Hard Ceilings: Due to a strict “fashion-first” design weight limit (aiming for roughly 50 grams), smart glasses are physically constrained by small batteries. Standard use limits battery life to anywhere from 4 to 9 hours, making them incapable of supporting a user’s all-day screen and data needs independently. • Complementary Hardware: Rather than cannibalizing phones, smart glasses are bolstering smartphone utility. They act as a hands-free capture peripheral—allowing users to shoot 12MP photos and video directly to their phone’s camera roll or stream view-sharing on phone video calls without pulling the device out of their pocket. While tech firms openly view smart glasses as a potential stepping stone toward a “post-smartphone world”, they are currently driving smartphone engagement rather than replacing it.” So much for that. I asked how well are they selling? “Meta Smart Glasses Sales Projections Based on industry tracking data from Counterpoint Research and Omdia, Meta’s smart glasses lineup has maintained immense sales velocity over the last two years. • 2026 Year-to-Date (YTD) Sales: Meta has sold an estimated 6.5 to 7.5 million smart glasses so far across the first three quarters of 2026. This massive volume represents a growth spike of over 260% year-over-year in shipments during the first half of the year. • Cumulative Sales (Since Jan 2025): Combined with the massive breakout year in 2025 (of 7M sold), Meta has reached a cumulative total of roughly 13.5 to 14.5 million units sold since January 2025.” Their ASP’s? “The average selling price (ASP) of AI-enabled smart glasses sits around $376. This pricing is anchored tightly by Meta’s tiered hardware lineup: • Entry-Level “Meta Glasses” (No Branding): Starts at $299. • Core Ray-Ban Meta Lineup (Audio-Only & Camera Models): Ranges between $349 and $449+. • Premium Ray-Ban Display & Neural Band Glasses: Starts at $799. As the market matures, research firms like IDC project that increased volume will push market-wide ASPs down toward $229 by 2030.” Sound familiar? These are like moderate budget to low midrange type devices relative to Android smartphones. TOTL Ray Bans make up only a small portion, otherwise avg ASP’s would be higher. Continued'
on Apple's solid Q4 2026: What the talking heads are saying - 'As for some of the China sales comments: “Apple’s Greater China sales expectations and actual Q4 FY2026 results: • Expectations: Wall Street consensus estimates expected Greater China revenue to come in around $18.55 billion to $18.75 billion. ((~28.7% growth and I’m not sure why the Street estimated quite that high?)) • Actual Results: Greater China revenue reached $17.54 billion (up about 21% year-over-year). • Did they come in lighter than expected? Yes. The results missed Wall Street projections by roughly $1 billion to $1.21 billion, with management citing supply constraints that limited their ability to meet local product demand.” So yes, “only” 21% instead of Q3’s 22.4% and FY2026’s overall 28% growth in China revenues compared YoY. Why could that be? The three biggest issues is delayed upgrades due to price hikes, as mentioned supply constraints on current iPhone 17 models (running out of popular Pro models), OR waiting for not only the iPhone 18, and/or the iPhone Duo and deciding between the iPhone Duo and 18 Pro/Pro Max or standing pat till the 20th anniversary model appears. A fourth issue is the across the range $100 price increase which could reduce demand, at least in the last 3 weeks of sales. Certainly there will be interest in other Domestically produced Foldables vs the Duo for those who can afford them, but I’m confident iPhone Duo will take some of those sales away, assuming supply is adequate. I believe Apple China sales for Q1 against tough robust Q1 compares should still be good, in the 21+ range if not higher, but overall sales volume may be lower due to price hikes and lack of iPhone 18 base models. Since there were no discounted models to get deals on, that probably plays a role in slightly decreased sales.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Couldn’t find a better place to post this Election results are in. As an investor one of the most interesting things to note, is the leadership changes at the Governor level. A few Governors that embraced Data Centers lost their jobs. Their replacements campaigned against them. This puts a lot of proposed data centers at risk of being canceled. If they are, how is this going to impact the AI stocks (including Nvidia). If they drop even further will they take Apple down with them?'
on Apple's solid Q4 2026: What the talking heads are saying - 'I’m actually happy that Gurman was able to purchase one on his own, probably a local store pickup, and that’s he’s enjoying it. If Gurman, the finicky tech obsessed guy that he seems to be, can find and get comfortable with using a Duo in productive workflows, then plenty of other uses can do that too. Remember, Gurman wasn’t given a demo unit to “review” since Apple considers him a leak source and not an “influencer”, and Bloomberg officially says he’s not a reviewer either but an investigative, breaking Tech reporter / analyst. The fact that Gurman admonishes other to give the Duo a one to two week try, and give it a chance to grow on one’s self is important because the Duo and Foldables is a very different user experience compared to a regular iPhone and iPad combo. As much as so many Apple users wanted something new, different, an challenging, I find it ironic that many found they didn’t like the Duo experience because it IS different, optimized for the format, instead of being a strict adaptation of an iPhone or iPad to a foldable, something that Android already tries to do with predictably just ok results. If Apple Duo developers succeed in optimizing Apps for the Duo format, that will become a true differentiator. Aside from that, Gurman was, IMO, pretty fair in assessing Apple’s reported numbers for what they are. Neither of his co-hosts nor many of the other talking heads mentioned the heavy foreign exchange hits that Apple has to deal with (4% last quarter and upcoming Q1) in weighing heavily on revenue results from China and other international regions. Recall in Q4, 57.5% of revenue is from international sales, and for Fiscal 2026, its 58.6%. So Fx is a big issue for Apple and a specific reason for pricing and margin pressures, as well as memory costs continuing to be a problem. Somehow everyone else is facing the same issue, including Hyperscalers, yet Apple gets flak for having to deal with it too, weird.'
on Bloomberg calls Apple's Ternus 'timid' and 'scripted' - 'Hey, man, he sold really well in LA. Just saying.'
on Bloomberg calls Apple's Ternus 'timid' and 'scripted' - 'With regard to the AAPL share price dropping considerably yesterday and today, I think it’s important for long-term investors to remind themselves that they’re not investing for a day, week or month. They’re investing for the long term. And for the long term, certainly for 2026, AAPL is doing very well. Stock Today YTD =================== AAPL -1.9% +22.08% NVDA +2.29% +10.83% AMZN +2.06% +8.61% MSFT +2.74% +7.73% META +2.63% -5.72% GOOG +0.08% -11.32% TSLA -1.32% -11.39%'
on Apple's solid Q4 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'Congress sets the tax rates and if a self-acknowledged under-taxed (law-abiding) billionaire wishes to do so, they can write a generous check to the Treasury. I don’t recall hearing anything like this happening'
on Apple's solid Q4 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'Hi David – yes. And I used your favorite term, ANALyst, to throw a pie back at them. 🙂'
on Apple's solid Q4 2026: What the talking heads are saying - 'Eddie just said he loves the Duo. Hell has officially frozen over.'
on Bloomberg calls Apple's Ternus 'timid' and 'scripted' - 'So is my understanding that Bloomberg’s Dave Lee is a journalism savant? One of a kind since he was an instant success at birth also known as: “Full Bloom from the Womb? Easy to write drivel from the cheap seats. But that’s what most of the critics from Bloomberg are known for since they never had anything positive to say or write about Apple since I’ve been an investor.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'AAPL closed down 1.9% for the day and down 4.1% for the week. It’s also down 0.5% for the month. But it’s also up 7.3% for the quarter, 19.9% for the half-year, and just gets greener the more back in time I go. I fully expect that, barring any black swans, we’ll see a return to a 40 valuation and (8.98×40=) $359.20/share sometime before the next Apple earnings call. And $400/share sometime next year wouldn’t surprise me,'
on Bloomberg calls Apple's Ternus 'timid' and 'scripted' - '”Of course some people are better at impromptu answers, some are not.” I remember Jobs would pause a fairly long time before answering what could have been a difficult question. During those times he would “script” his response, practice it in his head, then he would answer the question, all within 15-20 seconds. Not many have the ability to do that. For those that do, even they benefitted by being on the job a bit more than a month.'
on Bloomberg calls Apple's Ternus 'timid' and 'scripted' - 'I don’t care who you are, most likely anyone who is promoted to CEO of Apple is going to feel some significant nervousness in their first earnings call, given that person’s awareness of the history and standards of the position, and the importance of the company not only to him/herself but to the entire world. And anyone who wouldn’t be nervous is not the right person for the job, because false or overwhelming self-confidence is antithetical to what’s needed. I want someone running Apple who’s super-smart, capable, cautious, passionate, collaborative, and decisive, and a product of the “Apple school” that Steve Jobs built. And by all accounts John Ternus is all of those.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'I sold a bunch of AAPL on Friday, and bought back today. Unfortunately, I missed the early lows of the day. But I still saved ~$15/share from sell to buy, which is a nice bonus on top of the excellent results reported yesterday. Now to see what the midterms result in, for tomorrow’s decisions… We are definitely living in the “interesting times” of the apocryphal curse.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'It’s now almost 13:30, Raj, and volume is over 43 M shares (and remember, there’s about a 15 minute time-lag between the act and the actual number being reported). And we’re still down over 4%. So no, the knife is still falling.'
on Bloomberg calls Apple's Ternus 'timid' and 'scripted' - 'Color me shocked. A guy with an engineering degree and a life-long career in engineering fails to come across as a sparkling Hollywood personality.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'That equals $251.44$/9,285.92=0.0271 or about 2.7% What is the percentage of EPS to stick cost today? Presently, AAPL is about $331/share, so: (8.98/331=0.0271) Of course. A ratio is a ratio, no matter the relative numerator and denominator. So an average EPS gain of 2.7% over the last 13 years increased a stock from about $56/share to 9,285.92/share. I find that to be pretty impressive….'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'I take it back. The 37 valuation is including the new EPS of $8.98. BTW, has anyone ever calculated EPS adjusted for stock splits since buybacks started 13 years ago? (7×4=28 and 28×8.98=) $251.44/share. Interesting….'
on Bloomberg calls Apple's Ternus 'timid' and 'scripted' - 'Richard Gayle said: “Considering how skittish the market is today, I think any good CEO would be scripted and very, very careful. A single wrong word could tank the stock.” **Richard, I mentioned in a reply to one of your recent comments, that our 100% AAPL portfolio was worth 56.2 times the worth it had when I retired in 2008. And, even if the “skittish market” caused our AAPL portfolio to eventually reduce its worth by half, we’ll still be doing much better financially than we ever expected to do thanks to AAPL/Apple! At the current AAPL share price, prior to market close today, our portfolio is now down to 54 times the worth it had when I retired. And the reason, IMO, is the “skittish market”…not Apple’s performance. I’m confident that the only result of this reduction in share price will be that our November, auto-reinvested AAPL dividends may buy an extra AAPL share. 🙂'


