Recent Comments

  • Joseph Bland on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'Did anyone else notice the exceedingly low volume today? As of 5:25 PDT, AAPL trading volume is 24.36 M. That’s 46.2% of average volume, folks. Less than half! And after hours is at 0.00%…. AAPL closed down 0.33% at $335.92.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Yahoo!Finance: John Ternus should be a happy man - 'I’m liken’ this guy! I also hope Tim Cook remains active and involved as executive chairman of the company for a while. There is a continuing leadership change as well as a generational change with those now moving into senior executive roles at Apple. In my view as a shareholder and Apple product enthusiast the transitions are going as well as can be expected. These changes aren’t easy. I do like I I see and read about John Ternus.'
  • David Emery on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'It would be A Very Good Thing if 6g wasn’t as dependent on Qualcomm Standards Essential Patents as previous cellular technologies. (Me, I always thought ‘standards essential patent’ – a piece of commercial intellectual property locked into a patent that earns the owner licensing fees – is an oxymoron. SEP license fees are a non-trivial part of Qualcomm’s profits.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'That last point about: “…FCC enacted a strict ban on new foreign consumer-grade routers and mobile hotspots. This has disrupted the supply chain for consumer cellular hardware (like 5G gateways and battery-operated hotspots). Manufacturers are currently forced to reshape their corporate governance and move cellular assembly pipelines directly into the U.S. to gain FCC compliance..” What better time to disrupt the 5G gateways, US home Cellular WiFi and hot spot markets than to mark a comeback of the Apple AirPort Pro with built in Apple Silicon C-series modems, wired and cellular connectivity, encryption, Apple security, and customized use as a home or business AI hub?'
  • Bart Yee on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'A Gemini dive into modems: “what is happening with current and future cellular modem standards and technology?” The cellular world is moving through a major generational transition. The industry has officially entered the era of 5G-Advanced (the bridge to the future) while actively finalizing the technical foundations for 6G. The layout of current and future cellular modem standards and technologies highlights what is happening under the hood. The Present: 5G-Advanced (3GPP Releases 18 & 19) The industry is currently deploying 5G-Advanced, governed by 3GPP Release 18 (which recently froze and entered commercial networks) and Release 19. Instead of focusing purely on raw download speeds, modern modems are solving real-world efficiency and coverage limits: • Uplink Carrier Aggregation (CA) & MIMO: Modems are radically improving upload performance. By combining multiple frequency bands (FDD + TDD), current flagship modems handle the massive upstream traffic required for 4K live streaming, AI-assisted cloud computing, and cloud backups. • Integrated AI/ML in the Air Interface: The latest modems from vendors like Qualcomm use on-device AI to predict beam management, manage handovers, and optimize power consumption. The modem dynamically adapts to your movement to keep signal drop-offs to a minimum. • L1/L2 Inter-Cell Mobility: This technical upgrade significantly cuts down handover latency. Instead of your phone lagging when switching from one cell tower to another, the transition happens at the physical hardware layer without needing a heavy network reconfiguration. • Satellite Connectivity (NTN): Non-Terrestrial Network (NTN) support allows standard cellular modems to fall back onto satellite bands for emergency messaging and basic data when entirely out of tower range. The Future: The Road to 6G (3GPP Release 20+ & IMT-2030) The formal standardization of 6G is officially underway. Organizations like the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) have established the IMT-2030 framework, and 3GPP is using Release 20 to conduct early 6G foundational studies. Commercial 6G modems are expected to hit the market around 2029 or 2030. Future modems will introduce several paradigm shifts: Technology Pillar -> What It Means for Future Modems Centimeter-Wave / New Mid-Band • Modems will expand into the 7 GHz to 15 GHz spectrum (sandwiched between sub-6GHz and mmWave) to provide fiber-like speeds over wide areas. ISAC (Integrated Sensing & Communication) • The cellular signal won’t just carry data; the modem and towers will act like a radar. The network can “sense” the physical environment, mapping out objects, movement, and distances. AI-Native Air Interface • While 5G-Advanced patches AI into existing frameworks, 6G modems will be fundamentally designed around machine learning. The waveforms themselves will be dynamically designed by AI to combat local signal interference. Sub-Millisecond Latency • 6G targets true hyper-reliable low-latency communication (HRLLC), aiming to reliably drop latency below 1 millisecond for spatial computing and real-time digital twinning. ⚠️ A Crucial Side Note: Geopolitics & Hardware If you are looking at hardware, keep in mind that the FCC enacted a strict ban on new foreign consumer-grade routers and mobile hotspots. This has disrupted the supply chain for consumer cellular hardware (like 5G gateways and battery-operated hotspots). Manufacturers are currently forced to reshape their corporate governance and move cellular assembly pipelines directly into the U.S. to gain FCC compliance for future models.'
  • Bart Yee on Yahoo!Finance: John Ternus should be a happy man - 'Same thing happened with the iPhone 8 and X, skipping the iPhone 9 name altogether. Oddly, they did add the XS/XR as a generation before starting the 11, 12, etc. counter which is why we are short one number and not at the iPhone 19 now. As to what the design will look like, who knows. We could throw out some familiar options along with a radical design: 1) top and bottom glass design around a titanium or hardened anodized aluminum chassis – currently said to be off the table. 2) a back panel transparent design showing or displaying some of the inner internal workings and layout – for the real techies out there. Could be a bold design statement move but unlikely. For fun, it could trigger a bunch of imitators, especially Xiaomi. 3) I’ve always advocated for some type of Steve Jobs special edition model, what better time to bring it? Maybe with polished titanium or carbon fiber highlights, signature edition in the Camera plateau to make them instantly recognizable. There’s lots of room there to add more features or detailing. 4) aside from current specific colors, consider pearl or metallic versions if it can be done really well. Same for glossy, matte, or polished finishes. Standout colors has figured in a lot of Apple sales. 5) when and if the battery technology allow all day battery life, bring back the iPhone Mini in a base and Pro model. Tease it a year early or bring back for iPhone 21. Surprised the Android imitators never tried it. 6) bring on the Duo Pro within 2 years and charge $2299 for it. Add in the Duo Pro Max the size of the 11” iPad Air. Charge $2499 for that Or 7) bring on the Foldable iPad of any size.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'A 6G upgrade to cellular services would be a huge mobile upgrade catalyst. I’m thankful that little ol’ Spokane is always on the front lines of cellular upgrades. If 6G is as powerful as I believe it will be, I will cancel my fiber WiFi. I’m not using its capabilities any way.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - '”Glad Apple will be phasing out Qualcomm chips by mid to late 2027.” Actually Bart, I think this extension takes affect in Match 2027 and most likely has an option for an extension when it expires. That would the Apple way. This may be a signal for 6G launch and has more to do with that transition, than needing time to complete Apple’s 5G version.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'Qualcomm secures extension to global patent licensing pact with Apple Reuters “Qualcomm (QCOM.O) said ​on Thursday Apple (AAPL.O) has extended its patent-licensing agreement with ‌the chip designer, even as the iPhone maker looks to cut its reliance on the company’s modem chips. The semiconductor company did not give a ​timeline for the latest move. The current agreement ends on ​March 31, 2027, with an option to extend it ⁠by two years. Both Apple and Qualcomm did not respond ​to requests for comment.” “Even though the deal keeps Apple tied to ​some of Qualcomm’s patent portfolio, the chip designer had said in July that revenue from Apple products would decline faster than expected. Qualcomm’s licensing business accounted for ​roughly 15% of total revenue in the June quarter. The company ​had said it was banking on growth in its data center business to ‌offset ⁠the lost revenue from Apple in 2027. In 2023, Qualcomm signed a deal with Apple to supply 5G chips until at least 2026, at a time when the iPhone maker was facing increased challenges ​in China and ​looked to shore ⁠up its supply chains elsewhere. The partnership has been shaped by a 2019 settlement that ended a ​two-year global legal battle over wireless-patent royalties and ​modem-chip supply. ⁠They announced the truce in April 2019 as a U.S. jury trial between them was beginning in San Diego.” Excerpt From https://apple.news/AA_ouMo0CQnabiQCzJqqdEw This material may be protected by copyright. Hmmm, IMO patent-licensing Qualcomm’s IP to further develop Apple Silicon C-series modems is the best reason. But not only to further refine the current and near term 5G/satellite connectivity C2 and C3 modems, but also to be developing the next Gen 6G modems and additional capabilities. Win for Apple, small win for Qualcomm as licensing is much less revenue than selling modem chips that have onerous finished product based value royalties. Glad Apple will be phasing out Qualcomm chips by mid to late 2027. Another way to control the supply stack, improve performance, and guard margins.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Yahoo!Finance: John Ternus should be a happy man - 'This may not be the first “next” iPhone rumor, but it certainly won’t be the last From The Street “Apple just released the iPhone 18 Pro and its first foldable iPhone, but the next big iPhone rumor is already giving investors something to watch. Apple could reportedly skip the iPhone 19 and jump directly to an iPhone 20 in 2027, marking the 20th anniversary of the original iPhone. The expected anniversary edition could have a radically different look with curved glass, thinner bezels, and a display that looks almost seamless. Apple has not confirmed the iPhone 20 or any of these rumored specifications. Nor we they.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'BTW, here’s a link to some charts that remind me a little of Horace’s charts: https://stocks.apple.com/AjCthMe9TQnGhWk75a7bcWQ'
  • Stephen Gordon on Postcard from Toulouse - 'Loved France so much, though I went in November when it was cold. Happy trails! P.S. Nice pic!'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'The bottom line: Both Apple and Nvidia deserve their lofty market caps due to their truly massive earnings potential, not just presently, but into the future. But only one of the two, Apple, continues to be consistently undervalued, thus still permitting its buybacks to add value to it’s still-quickly-shrinking stock float. Just as has been the case for approaching the last 2 decades….'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'There’s a reason the market cap is lower but the price is higher; there are less shares of AAPL to go around. The company, PER REMAINING SHARE, is more valuable because EPS is going up. Many years ago, on Robert Paul Leitao’s Braeburn Group, where I posted previous to Apple 2.0, I posited that AAPL would follow EPS, and so it has. Yes, it’s approaching earnings of $10/share yet again, but this isn’t the first time; every time shares split, EPS splits as well. So to calculate true EPS growth, you need to adjust for stock splits. That is one of the primary reasons I’ve been what some might say is obsessively focused on stock buybacks from the moment they began, back in 2013: I realized the incredible value represented by Apple buying back undervalued AAPL for a long term investment in AAPL, as demonstrated by the closeness that Apple’s valuation tracked Earnings Per Share. I caught a lot of flack, btw, for taking that position on EPS being the driver for Apple’s valuation. And to this day there are scoffers that say Apple’s buybacks are just a “gimmick”. But it’s a “gimmick” that has kept Domna and myself’s heads above what would otherwise have been very, very deep water, and has made many folks on this site quite well off, even when they didn’t quite realize the full extent why that was. But I always knew, because we suffered in the BB years ( Before Buybacks) following the Great Recession. And even though there was a time when my faith wavered, for which we paid a substantial price, I now feel completely vindicated in sticking with my original analysis. Did Apple truly plan this, all along? Only they know. But even if it just slowly dawned on them, they kept at it, and are continuing to do so, for the very good reason that it is richly rewarding ex-employees such as Donna, to this day. And no matter how you cut it, that is truly admirable.'
  • Joseph Bland on Yahoo!Finance: John Ternus should be a happy man - 'Doesn’t matter how brief the moment was: AAPL reascended to the level it was at a scant 2 months ago. THAT is the major takeaway. Apple’s true value is finally beginning to be acknowledged. Congrats to the long-term Apple investors who saw Apple’s potential then and still see it now! “ “The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has never been more concentrated in just two stocks than it is today, Creative Planning president Peter Mallouk pointed out. Nvidia and Apple represent over 15% of the index (see chart below). That percentage dusts the 9.1% concentration seen for Microsoft (MSFT) and General Electric (GE) in the lead-up to the dot-com bust.” Excerpt From “The S&P 500 has never been this concentrated in just 2 stocks” Brian Sozzi Yahoo Finance https://stocks.apple.com/A5hO42JmuTuWjSol_W849aQ This material may be protected by copyright.'
  • Joseph Bland on Yahoo!Finance: John Ternus should be a happy man - '“My take: Make that an intraday all-time high.” My take: I’ll take it!'
  • Bart Yee on Postcard from Toulouse - 'Note: the above shows Q1 FY2027 price changes and my estimates of percentage quarter’s sales. Due to a a straight across the board all iPhones (even the Air) Q1 FY2027 $100 increase in iPhone ASP’s from $1032 to $1132 is already a 9.7% increase. Add to that ASP elevations by only selling Pro/Pro Max and Duo as your premier premium models, and upward ASP pressure only mounts. IMO, a base $1200 ASP is a floor, more like mid to upper $1200’s is possible and likely. These are ASP’s Android makers could not even envision in their wildest dreams. Yes, Android ASP’s will rise due their own price increases and losing or moving their most budget models out of <$200 range into higher brackets BUT seeing significant decreased sales numbers due to price sensitivity. Their revenues may recover somewhat or stay positive YoY, but profits will still be difficult to maintain. Let’s look at #3 global sales Xiaomi’s Q2 2026 Smartphone report: Total Sales 31.2M, -26.3% China sales 8.4M, -27% ASP rose 25.7% from RMB1075 $160 USD to RMB1351or $201 USD, a new Xiaomi record! but still well below average Android ASP. But the 25.7% ASP rise coupled with a 26.3% drop in sales didn’t keep revenues flat, Xiaomi smartphone revenues dropped to RMB42.1B $6.27B USD, a decline YoY of -7.5%. In comparison to Apple Sales 31.2M vs 55.6M ~56% Revenue $6.27B vs $54.3B, ~just 11.5% or 8.7X less.'
  • Bill Donahue on Yahoo!Finance: John Ternus should be a happy man - '“He has a great tech-bro look.” Yeah, not at all a compliment or something to aspire to or admire.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Postcard from Toulouse - 'On the back of consumer demand for the iPhone 17 Apple has exceeded GUIDANCE with an average 16.3% growth rate during FY 2026 (3 quarters). I am not expecting another 16+% YoY revenue growth rate for the September quarter (weakened compare). I am expecting a 13% revenue growth rate due to demand for the iPhone 18, iPhone split delivery schedule, and continued demand for Mac mini/Studio. Memory cost increases are offset by memory dependent product price increases that maintain historic net income rates of ~47%. My revenue estimate (published on estimize.com) is $116.250 Billion (up 13%). My EPS estimate is $2.06 (up 11%). The above estimates were derived solely from Apple’s GUIDANCE and historic beat trend.'
  • Bart Yee on Postcard from Toulouse - 'FYQ4 guidance from June Earnings call: As we move ahead into the September quarter, I’d like to review our outlook, which includes the types of forward-looking information that Suhasini referred to. Importantly, the color we’re providing assumes that global tariff rates, policies, and their application remain in effect as of this call, and the global macroeconomic outlook does not worsen from today. ((At least tariffs for FYQ1will be stable: “The United States and China have agreed to extend a bilateral trade truce that was set to expire in November through Jan. 10, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday. The announcement came after Bessent and China’s vice premier, He Lifeng, held an unscheduled meeting in Washington. “We will extend what we call the ‘Busan Agreement’ — the economic détente between the two countries that was scheduled to end on Nov. 10 — that is going to be extended until Jan. 10,” Bessent said in an interview on Fox News Channel.” Excerpt From “U.S. and China agree to extend trade truce through Jan. 10, Bessent says” Steve Kopack NBC News apple news/ A13abrcNXTKy7gVdQFOf1yA This material may be protected by copyright.”)) “We also expect our September quarter total company revenue to be impacted by two main factors. First, we expect foreign exchange to be a sequential headwind of about 2.5 percentage points to the year-over-year total company growth rate from the June quarter to the September quarter. Second, we expect the impact from supply constraints to increase significantly sequentially. The projected supply constraints in the September quarter affect iPhone, Mac, and iPad. As a result, we expect our September quarter total company revenue to grow between 9% and 11% year-over-year. On iPhone, we expect to continue to see high levels of demand; however, we do expect iPhone revenue to be impacted by these foreign exchange headwinds and supply constraints. Therefore, we expect the September quarter reported growth rate for iPhone to be mid-teens year-over-year. For Services, we expect September quarter year-over-year reported growth rate to be largely similar to what we reported in the June quarter after removing the negative sequential impact of about two and a half percentage points from foreign exchange that we just described. We expect gross margin to be between 47 percent and 48 percent. This includes an expected benefit of approximately one percentage point related to tariff refunds. We expect operating expenses to be between $19.1 billion and $19.4 billion. We expect OI&E to be around $350 million, excluding any potential impact from the mark-to-market of minority investments, and our tax rate to be around 16.5 percent.” Given these, expectations are floating around, analysts est.: Q4 Total revenues: ~$113.62 10.9% vs +9-11% Gross Margins 47-48% iPhone guidance $56.4B (=15% mid teens guidance) Services ~$32.2B (~12% guidance same ~ June) Mac & iPad ~$15-16B maybe flat to +2% depending on supply constraints Wearables – flat ~$9.0B Q1 FY2027 analysts estimates, per Yahoo Finance: Total revenues: $154.4B +7.4% avg 19 analysts range $131.5B (-8.5%, who is that!?) to $170.4B (+18.7%) only +7.4% YoY, a big slowdown from Q4’s 9-11%. Wonder if most believe revenues are slowed vs a record and difficult tough compare from year ago iPhone 17 massive bump, plus price increases dampening demand? The move to split iPhone base models off to Spring 2027 but sub Duo revenues entirely in Q1 is an interesting revenue and profits move. Actual sales numbers will be lower BUT average sales prices due to new iPhone 18 Pro & Pro Max plus Duo could jump from $1032 in Q1 FY2026 well into the $1200’s. ASP: • 18 Pro $1275 (30%) • 18 Pro Max $1380 (35%) • iPhone Air $1120 (3%) • iPhone Duo $2250 (6%) Little talked about price increases, not discounted older models • iPhone 17 $920 (10%) (price increased $100 to $899 after iPhone Event due to memory costs instead of usual $100 discount to $699) • iPhone 16 $820 5% (up $100 to $799) • iPhone 17e $725 5% (Up $100 to $699) If 82.6M (ASP $1032 Rev $85.3B) sold in Q1 FY2026, consider a massive 10% sales decrease to 74.3M but an increase in ASP from $1032 to low estimate $1200 (+16.3%) = iPhone Revenue of $89.2B, an increase YoY of 4.6% in a tough year. If sales do not decrease that much, say -6% to 77.64M, rev up to $93.1B, +9.2%. A partially forced iPhone price tier leap like the iPhone X.'
  • Joseph Bland on Postcard from Toulouse - 'I do expect the typical renewed effort to pull the beachball down in the fast-upcoming 1st month of a new quarter, when Apple is on the open market sidelines. Works for me, since it gives Apple yet another opportunity to buy back undervalued stock…. “Lord, what fools these mortals be!” – Puck, in “A Midsummer Night’s Dream” by W, Shakespeare'
  • Joseph Bland on Postcard from Toulouse - 'IMO, this “high” valuation of Apple’s (around 40) isn’t high at all; it’s just that the stock is floating more at its natural level as the hands that have been holding the beachball down for years are finally losing their grip.'
  • Joseph Bland on Postcard from Toulouse - 'BTW, final AAPL volume was 31.48 M, that last half a million trades in the tiny post-market, which basically ended flat as a pancake (-0.02%) Notice that such a tiny post-pre-market volume means it takes far fewer shares to “drive” a stock in a given direction than would be the case in the open market…. Long term, that is good news for AAPL investors. The shenanigans that have been pulled on Apple over many years are finally beginning to lose their grip, allowing the Apple beachball to float higher and higher in the water.'
  • Michel Contant on Postcard from Toulouse - 'Have a good ride! That one is on my bucket list'
  • Gregg Thurman on Flying to Toulouse, biking to Bordeaux - '” it’s unclear if Chinese or now India OEM’s will have the stomach to reenter the lower price tiers market again” If they do re-enter the cheap handset market again, it will only be after they have rebuilt their respective balance sheets. By then, the consumer may have been weaned off cheap smartphone expectations.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Postcard from Toulouse - 'Today’s downturn was predictable, even without the macro issues in the Middle East and Ukraine. If you look back at previous ATH’s you’ll see pullbacks that can last several days, sometimes weeks. I’m not seeing a significant pullback this time around, provided September results are better than estimates and GUIDANCE for the December quarter is strong. I see support at $330 until then.'
  • Joseph Bland on Postcard from Toulouse - 'Apple closed at $337, down 8/10th of 1%, on trading volume at 1:15 PM PDT of 31 M, which is quite low. I consider this a breather. It’s only 18.7% to $400/share, or 15.8% from yesterday’s new ATH…. I’m thinking we hit that within half a year, and keep going….'
  • Brian M MacManus on Postcard from Toulouse - 'Phillip, you are blessed, enjoy your trip… Regards Brian'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Approaching the end of the trading day and McDonald’s is off about $13 or over 5% on concerns about the prospects for flat revenue and margin pressure. All four major indexes are in the red with the Russell 2000 small cap index off more than 1.50%. Apple is currently down $3.42 or 1.01% at $336.34. That’s after reaching $345.34 yesterday and establishing a new all-time high. These days do happen!'
  • Joseph Bland on Postcard from Toulouse - 'Sounds like fun! Meanwhile, we’re yet again watching paint dry here on Apple 3.0, after yesterday’s intraday ATH.'