Bart Yee on 1.5TB Mac Studio rumor is the most exciting thing Errol Brandt heard this week - 'Hi Joseph, I don’t think anyone claimed there was something new here, certainly not me. After all, Gemini is trained on what is past and currently available, including people’s thoughts and ideas about Apple, AI and a whole host of things that could, are, and will affect all of them. My purpose for the questions and sharing the responses was to bring up the reasons, rationales, and ideas about how this whole AI thing, where’s it’s possibly headed, Apple’s known thinking, and some speculation based on slivers of Apple roadmaps that may or may not see the light of day. I think that’s worthy of discussion here, or at least contemplation. I feel I learned some new things about how Hyperscalers are trying to enter and create an entirely new technology and business. Considering the huge volumes of expenses they are generating, to me it’s worthwhile trying to understand how and when they think it will pay off, at least before some part of it burns up or implodes. Meanwhile, a lot of that energy and costs have materially affected Apple, especially the “ever behind in AI” scenarios and now the Memory Supply and Price Spikes. That many here saw Apple’s “different” AI approach as being not only prudent but potentially a winning hand (at least one of the winners) is not lost on me, but where the puck is going is a bit harder to discern. Here’s a couple of thoughts: 1) Apple has roadmapped its AI servers for at least 5-10 years, but like any project, there’s technical hurdles to overcome, hence M5 Ultra forthcoming, M7 Ultra already drawn up for 2nm or less, and Baltra needing some additional tech from Broadcom. 2) At the same time, Apple silicon A20 and beyond is also roadmapped to handle Edge AI and more, plus continued advances in modem C-series, networking, RF, Bluetooth and other chips will add value and cost containment, assuming Apple still has some significant capacity with TSMC and now Intel. 3) The memory crunch may prove resilient, may prove relatively transitory, depending on how the market reacts to continued AI spending without significant ROI y not only the Hyperscalers, but those clients and customers who also need to see ROI in their RPO contracts. If there is the slightest hint of hiccups, datacenter usage, server and hardware purchasing may slow, possibly abruptly. While DRAM memory is still in high demand and constrained supply, there may be more supply available within 6-12-18 months coinciding with that potential slowdown, leading to, just maybe, a significant drop in HBM demand and a need for memory makers to switch up supply for DRAM and NAND memory to sustain revenues and profits, or at least prevent severe declines. Typical boom and bust memory cycle. 4) with Ternus at the helm, and some hints at a robust product roadmap, I think iPhone 18, Ultra Foldable, an enhanced Air2, and then iPhone 20 will be very attractive, albeit with a memory cost hangover. If Apple can get through that cycle relatively unfazed margin wise, relief may come by late 2027. Whether Apple then is able to or wants to reduce prices will be an interesting time. 5) I feel confident in Ternus & Srouji’s hardware commitments and roadmap, which leads to conquest sales, Android switchers, and greater market share of the premium tiers, plus that leads to a very self-sufficient and self revenue generating install base as it come to upgrades and Services engagement worldwide. 6) Apple fortunes in China have been on the upswing and now AI approval there gives Apple Chinese owners another use case to test out and see if it enhances their iOS experience. While it isn’t a driving force for upgrades, a useful and effective AI in China, writhing governmental restrictions or regulation, makes Apple at least evenly competitive. Whether any of that is new or not, it’s an investment thesis that bodes well for Apple, barring regulatory, geopolitical or trade black swans, which are always near the horizon. Let’s hope Apple, Ternus, Cook, and Parekh can skillfully navigate these unsettled waters.'
on 1.5TB Mac Studio rumor is the most exciting thing Errol Brandt heard this week - 'Bart: Thank you for this series of thoughtful and informative posts. I’m am investing serious time in research on equities in this very dynamic technology era. I believe Apple has been wise to not only decide to raise prices to maintain product quality but also to move off of the net cash neutral goal as a means to maintain adequate liquidity for future strategic investments. I was quite heartened to read of the renewed chip agreement between Apple and Broadcom. As a matter of practice I don’t recommend stocks for others to buy. Each person has unique needs, goals and expectations. With that as a disclaimer I do recommend reading Morningstar’s July 7th note on Broadcom which mentions the recent agreement with Apple. I look forward to robust discussions in the months ahead on all things Apple and AI.'
on 1.5TB Mac Studio rumor is the most exciting thing Errol Brandt heard this week - 'Sorry, Bart, but your AI didn’t say anything particularly new – and was pretty long-winded in the process. Yes, I skim-read what it had to say, so I may have missed something. But the trick isn’t noticing the Apple advantages that are slowly coming into view: The trick is realizing that all of this is old news, not just to us, but more importantly to Apple. Describing where the puck is is all well and good, but doesn’t speak to where Apple is actually going. And knowing that they aren’t sitting on their laurels is IMO probably still the best reason to continue investing in them, even if you can come up with a good guess as to where that Apple puck is going. “Apple is doomed!” Yes, again…'
on 1.5TB Mac Studio rumor is the most exciting thing Errol Brandt heard this week - 'This thread has diverged into technical areas I don’t think most of the commentators are qualified to address. I don’t certainly don’t understand what is being described. For that reason I am bowing out of any future discussions.'
on 1.5TB Mac Studio rumor is the most exciting thing Errol Brandt heard this week - 'Just in time for Moonshot’s Kimi K3 2.8T model!'
on 1.5TB Mac Studio rumor is the most exciting thing Errol Brandt heard this week - 'What an amazing overview of the AI business and its players BRAVO !!'
on Apple is No. 1 in shareholder wealth creation over the last 100 years - 'Well, I asked AI to calculate it, hence the quotation marks. Maybe the results I got are a prognostication of what to expect after the human race relies on AI to calculate anything of consequence? Ugh.'
on Apple is No. 1 in shareholder wealth creation over the last 100 years - 'David Thall said: “Excuse me, Ron, but I think the calculations that you’re posting are not accurate.” **It wouldn’t be the first time I had inaccurate calculations…but this is how I calculated that number($149,515,520.00). There were 3 AAPL stock splits between 2001 and the present: 02/28/05 – 2 for 1 06/09/14 – 7 for 1 08/28/20 – 4 for 1 So, (8,000)X2X7X4=448,000 448,000X$333.74=$149,515,520.00 Perhaps you didn’t account for the 2 for 1 split in 2005.'
