Les Surdykowski on Dan Niles on Apple AI: 'Sometimes you get lucky for being incompetent' - 'So CNBC (in the interest of being “fair and balanced”) trots out Mr (I got rich by betting against ) Niles every time Apple starts to move higher for longer. I’m not impressed by the commentary as it’s typically something along the lines of Apple is up but it doesn’t deserve to be. Rinse and repeat. What actual value does Mr Niles bring to the table? His Zoom backgrounds change from time to time but that’s about the only thing different when he comes on to talk about Apple. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯'
on Dan Niles on Apple AI: 'Sometimes you get lucky for being incompetent' - 'Let’s all pause and think about the time when Sam Altman said publicly that he had no idea how OpenAI would make money from AI, but that when they achieved AGI they’d simply ask the model how to make it profitable and do whatever it says. I guess maybe that’s Dan Niles’ preferred corporate strategy and approach to AI as an actual business and investment.'
on Apple touches $339.57, closes at a record $336.91 and overtakes Nvidia - 'I’m sure there will be creeps out there that will use AVP inappropriately, in the same way that Apple Tags are sometimes used inappropriately. But given Apple’s commitment to privacy I’m confident they are considering ways to mitigate inappropriate use and avoid dumb design choices.'
on Dan Niles on Apple AI: 'Sometimes you get lucky for being incompetent' - 'Or start using A.I. to fact check him! “But Dad! I checked on Apple Intelligence and it says you’re wrong!” 🙂'
on CNBC talking heads talk about Apple's new highs - 'Dan Nathan has never uttered a complimentary word about Apple anytime I heard him on a broadcast. But I fell out of my chair when the “Chartist”, Carter Worth(less), said several superlatives about Apple including: “Stay Long, Be Long.”'
on Dan Niles on Apple AI: 'Sometimes you get lucky for being incompetent' - 'Niles is simply gaslighting us for why he’s been so wrong about AAPL for at least the last 6 years.'
on Dan Niles on Apple AI: 'Sometimes you get lucky for being incompetent' - 'I thought I heard Niles say that even though Apple was overpriced, it can grow into its present valuation. I also think that the share price is a bit overextended here but do feel that Apple will grow into its valuation. I also don’t care if Nvidia or Apple has the largest market cap. I will disagree that Apple’s incompetence led to the present state of affairs. But if you want to say that some things taking longer than analysts think they should is incompetence, you can use that phrase with any tech company that delays implementation of things. I don’t see this as incompetence at Apple. I see it as something that was much more difficult to achieve than what was anticipated.'
on Dan Niles on Apple AI: 'Sometimes you get lucky for being incompetent' - 'Clickbait of the worst order. Let’s never speak of this a-hole again.'
on Apple touches $339.57, closes at a record $336.91 and overtakes Nvidia - 'So Ben; you’re saying Vision Pros are obvious so recording with them is less “creepy”?'
on Dan Niles on Apple AI: 'Sometimes you get lucky for being incompetent' - 'It made my blood boil a bit to hear him say that Apple was incompetent in their AI efforts. It didn’t happen as quickly as we might have hoped for, but behind the scenes they were working very hard and very productively.'
on Goldman Sachs raises Apple target $30 to $370 - 'The Indian and EU as counterweights is really interesting and something that I hadn’t considered. Not sure if India will be heavy enough to get the “we reported record revenue in all our geo segments” but I think India becomes more valuable than just it’s individual growth rate.'
on Goldman Sachs raises Apple target $30 to $370 - '“so is AI really driving smartphone purchasing decisions, or are smartphones still being purchased for all of the standard and typical reason for upgrading or buying?” “No, AI is not driving smartphone purchasing decisions for the vast majority of consumers. While smartphone brands spend billions marketing generative AI features, consumer data proves that actual purchases are still driven entirely by standard, practical reasons. The industry’s marketing hype and consumers’ actual motivations are heavily mismatched. What Actually Drives Smartphone Purchases? Comprehensive market studies from tracking firms like Recon Analytics and CNET Survey outline the primary reasons people choose to buy a new phone: • Hardware Failures: Broken screens, dead batteries, and physical degradation remain the number one driver of device purchases. • Price (62%): The absolute cost or monthly carrier deal is the biggest deciding factor. • Longer Battery Life (54%): Users prioritize a phone that stays alive all day over software tricks. • More Storage (39%): Running out of local space for apps and media forces upgrades. • Better Cameras (30%): Standard hardware upgrades like optical zoom lens improvements. • AI Features (Only 4% to 11%): AI feature priority sits at the very bottom of consumer interests. Over 30% of users state they explicitly do not find mobile AI helpful or desirable. Why Is AI Failing to Move the Needle? 1. The “Gimmick” Gap vs. Paid Features • Many highly publicized AI features (like moving an object in a photo or translating a call) are seen as fun to try once but are not essential to daily productivity. Furthermore, consumer surveys show half of all smartphone users are entirely unwilling to pay extra money or a subscription fee to access AI capabilities. 2. The Upgrade Super-Cycle is Missing Brands expected AI to create a massive wave of immediate device upgrades. Instead, consumers are holding onto their devices longer than ever, with the average age of a traded-in smartphone exceeding 3.6 years. People are keeping their existing devices until they physically give out, rather than rushing out to get an AI-capable phone. 3. AI-Driven Shortages are Driving Prices Up Ironically, the rise of AI is actually hindering phone sales rather than helping them. Because data centers are buying up global microchip and RAM inventory at a premium, a global component shortage has hit consumer electronics. This supply crunch has forced manufacturers to raise prices on retail models or delay certain hardware configurations, suppressing consumer demand. The Reality of “Invisible AI” While consumers actively reject flashy generative AI marketing (like chatbots and text summarizers), they highly value predictive AI that works silently in the background. Features like AI-driven battery optimization, computational photography, call screening, and automatic screen brightness are heavily utilized, though most buyers view them as standard smartphone features rather than “AI”.'
