Recent Comments

  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'At the closing price today of $333.02, Apple ended the week off $0.72 from last Friday’s closing price of $333.74 and the day’s high of $334.37 was off $0.62 from the current all-time high of $334.99 also set last Friday. The share price did move up $11.36 or 3.53% today to recover from the pulldown that began on Monday.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'John: Are you expecting anything noteworthy from either the earnings report or the quarterly conference call that is apt to move the share price higher?'
  • Robert Stack on The day PC Magazine fired John Dvorak - 'Ewan Spence – aptly named because after reading pieces of his I always responded with an “Ewww” – was nearly as bad as Dvorak. The Macalope must have loved him though because his idiocy set the stage for a number of some of his best skewerings (is that a word?). In fact, I laughed so hard at some of the Macalope’s writings that it actually made me read Spence’s original articles, until I realized this was only to Fortune’s benefit.'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Apple closed near the day’s high on moderately high volume and went up a bit after hours. Max pain really got hammered. With earnings coming up next I don’t expect much selling pressure at least till just after the earnings come out.'
  • Neil Shapiro on The day PC Magazine fired John Dvorak - 'Gee Whiz, I wasn’t aware that John had passed away. He was a wonderful guy and an excellent writer. Back when I was putting together the first issues of MACUSER Magazine, he was very surprised to hear from me, especially when he heard the assignment I wanted him to accept. I would list him on the masthead as Anti-Editor (to my Editor-in-Chief). His assignemnt for a monthly column would be simple: John’s job was to editorially balance the magazine all by himself. I never liked (still do not) magazines which were not-so much fluffy in content as they were in opinion. He was to become our resident curmudgeon and all by his lonesome to point out anything he thought would best illustrate what he thought Apple was doing wrong and we were missing calling out. I know that John would love to hear that he was the greatest Anti-Editor and the one and only as far I know throughout Publishing and Journalism) that I could have chosen. Sigh. I wish we would have stayed in touch. — Neil Shapiro'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'There’s about 75 minutes remaining in today’s session. Apple is now trading at $332.15, up $10.49 on the day. With a high today of $334.37, the company came within striking distance of taking out the current all-time high of $334.99 set last Friday. Let’s see what happens today in the last hour of trading.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Albertsons, which has seen its share price drop from a closing price of $15.11 last Friday to $11.03 today, has announced the company is losing business to lower-cost rivals such as Amazon and Walmart. The point is technology leaders in the retail grocery business are taking market share from less nimble rivals and as lower-income households face rising cost pressures. RBC Capital, which has a $137 price target on Walmart (trading today at $109.33) sees sales growth slowing due to pressure on consumers but the company’s long-term competitive positioning strengthening at this time. In other words, technology is reshaping American retail and the collective investment in new technologies, including AI, will continue to rise. This also bodes well for Apple. Savvy consumers will continue to invest in new technology to gain advantages. I expect demand for Apple products to rise through the end of the year despite cost challenges.'
  • Gregg Thurman on The day PC Magazine fired John Dvorak - 'Nope. I don’t miss what he became, when he decided nobody knew better than he.'
  • Bart Yee on The day PC Magazine fired John Dvorak - 'Steven said: “As I recall there were a couple of other really out there pundits whose names I can’t recall…” Ewan Spence, Gordon Kelly, and others at Forbes, Gurman at Bloomberg, (all of the above incentivized by clicks and engagement), Cory Doctorow or Dan Gilmor (read neither), Musk, Sweeney and Spotify CEO for specific App Store issues, Toni Sacconaghi, Craig Moffett, now Brandon Nispel, and of course, Vestager and most of the EU. There, that’s a bunch of nabobs of negativity. Oh, I forgot Tommo_Uk, he’s an “Apple truther” (IMO) who knows exactly where and why Apple has gone wrong, mostly who screwed it up, and how Apple could right their ship (if it isn’t too late) and fix themselves back to past Jobsian glories, if they just followed his (and his custom AI) recommendations. I’m sure many still miss him.'
  • Joseph Bland on Morgan Stanley raises Apple price target $4 to $364 - 'Morning, David. I’d personify it as a tip of the hat, and an indication of a willingness to upgrade upwards on more proof of renewed growth. I.e., a conservative year-out estimate.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'John: The shares are now up over $12. All four major indexes are in the green and Apple is just behind IBM on the DJIA leaderboard. Big Blue is up 4.20%, Apple is higher by 3.54%, Salesforce has gained 3.40% and Disney is ahead 3.08%. What a motley assortment of big gainers today!'
  • Joseph Bland on The day PC Magazine fired John Dvorak - '“…a few years ago — back when I could still speak coherently on camera…” I don’t know, PED: You spoke coherently, well, and extemporaneously at the Apple 3.0 Bay Area dinner. IMO, you’ve still got it!'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - '“Max pain moves down $2.50 to $320….” Although the day is young, AAPL is within $1.50 of its ATH and is giving Max Pain the finger, at the same time AVGO (Broadcom), SPCX, TSLA, and TSM, are decidedly in the red. Clearly, buyers still exist for AAPL even at these lofty heights. Was the profit-locking too early?'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Approaching noon EDT and Apple is up over $11. Just a straight line up. What a difference a day makes.'
  • Rodney Avilla on The day PC Magazine fired John Dvorak - 'It shows that sometimes we’re more interested in entertainment than truth.'
  • Miguel Ancira on Morgan Stanley raises Apple price target $4 to $364 - 'wow…they are still $36 below mine'
  • David Emery on The day PC Magazine fired John Dvorak - '“Any clod can have the facts; having opinions is an art.” Charles McCabe'
  • Steven Philips on The day PC Magazine fired John Dvorak - 'Oh how does that bring back memories! As I recall there were a couple of other really out there pundits whose names I can’t recall but Dvorak was “king”. So spectacularly up front bad that you – almost – had to like him. As my old daddy used to say, “He’s not totally worthless. You can always use him as a bad example.” RIP, John.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'At about 10am in the east Apple is trading up $5.48 at $327.14. The indexes are mixed in early trading. Digital Realty Trust, a major operator of data centers, is up $22.76 or 12.69% at $202.10. The company just reported a record backlog and leasing levels. DLR is currently today’s top performer among S&P 500 components. 76% of components are higher on the day.'
  • Greg Lippert on Morgan Stanley raises Apple price target $4 to $364 - '“ The firm continues to believe that Apple fundamentals are “very strong.” — Analyst Erik Woodring” – Duh'
  • David Emery on Morgan Stanley raises Apple price target $4 to $364 - 'The word for a $4 raise is “noise”. They would like us to believe their models provide 3 significant digits of accuracy. Mostly, as usual, this is about ‘clicks’.'
  • Charles A. on Counterpoint: iPhone shipments in China grew 23% YOY in June quarter - 'Simply FAAANTASTIC jpb, Bart!!! We all owe you an enormous Thank You for your excellent and very time-consuming work!!!'
  • Bart Yee on Counterpoint: iPhone shipments in China grew 23% YOY in June quarter - '“what were Apple’s annual iPhone sales in China 2025 and projected to be for 2026? how long would it take for those 60M+ older iPhones to be upgraded? years?“ “In 2025, Apple sold an estimated 43.5 million to 44.5 million iPhones in mainland China, capturing a 16% volume share. For the full-year 2026, Apple is projected to grow its volume significantly to between 49 million and 51 million units (an approximate 12% to 15% increase), bucking the broader Chinese market decline due to its highly stable pricing strategy. Based on Apple’s annual sales velocity, it will take approximately 1.3 to 1.5 years for the 65 million+ older iPhones to fully recycle and upgrade through the ecosystem. Year-by-Year Upgrading Timeline • Year 1 (Late 2026 – Late 2027): The Core AI Wave (~45M to 50M Upgrades) The initial 12 months following the Q4 launch of local Apple Intelligence (via Alibaba’s Qwen) will absorb the vast majority of the upgrade pool. Tech-sensitive users holding onto premium older models (like the iPhone 13 Pro or iPhone 14 series) will trade in immediately to gain access to native localized AI features. • Year 2 (Late 2027 – Mid 2028): The Residual Long-Tail (~15M to 20M Upgrades) The remaining cohort consists of budget-conscious users or older demographics holding onto highly durable hardware (like the iPhone 11 or 12). These users do not upgrade for software features but will naturally age out of their devices over the subsequent 6 months due to battery degradation or apps dropping legacy iOS support. The Upgrade Velocity Bottleneck The timeline cannot happen overnight or within a single quarter because it is constrained by a physical supply ceiling. Even with high demand, Apple’s global supply chain allocations to mainland China cap maximum annual deliveries at around 50 million units. A portion of those 50 million new sales will also go to Android switchers, meaning the system physically requires more than a single calendar year to completely flush out and refresh 65 million legacy units.” ((Sounds pretty good to me, assuming the iPhone 18 and iPhone 19/20 lines prove as attractive as Gemini makes them out to be. Whether AI is or will truly be an upgrade or purchase decision maker is still yet to be proven, but it will be an interesting ride over the next 18-32 months, both from a hardware sales revenue standpoint and then a not so lagging Services standpoint. The breakdown of products and services by regions will be fascinating to observe.))'
  • Bart Yee on Counterpoint: iPhone shipments in China grew 23% YOY in June quarter - '“Aside from AI driven new iPhone sales, what is the impact of so many older iPhones hitting the used, hand me down, or trade-in and refurbished or resold markets in China?” The massive wave of roughly 65 million to 75 million older iPhones entering the secondary market creates a structural shockwave across mainland China. Aside from fueling Apple’s new hardware upgrades via trade-ins, this secondary supply surge completely reshapes the domestic retail ecosystem, severely impacts rival Android brands, and creates an eco-economic windfall. 1. Crushing Tier-2 Android Vendors in Lower-Tier Cities The massive influx of refurbished iPhones acts as a direct substitute for new, mid-range Android phones. • The Brand Prestige Factor: In China’s tier-3 and tier-4 cities, a pre-owned iPhone 13 or 14 carries significantly higher social status than a brand-new, mid-tier phone from Vivo, Oppo, or Xiaomi. • The Component Crunch Advantage: As second-tier Android OEMs are forced to raise retail prices due to soaring memory chip costs, the price gap narrows. A consumer deciding between a newly inflated $350 Android phone and a premium, certified pre-owned iPhone at identical pricing will overwhelmingly favor Apple. This migration severely depresses the sales volume of domestic mid-rangers. 2. Explosion of Organized, Standardized E-Commerce Platforms Historically, China’s second-hand phone market was heavily fragmented, plagued by counterfeit parts and lack of consumer trust. This volume forces a rapid professionalization of the market. • Escrow and Blockchain Tracking: Major domestic platforms like Zhuanzhuan, Idle Fish (Alibaba), and Aihuishou are scaling up operations using escrow systems and blockchain-backed inspection records. • The Dominant Price Tier: The bulk of these incoming devices will flood the highly lucrative 1,000 to 1,999 RMB ($140 to $275) tier, which represents over 43% of China’s total refurbished market volume. 3. Apple’s “Trojan Horse” for Long-Term Services Revenue Even when an iPhone is resold or handed down, it remains a highly profitable node in Apple’s ecosystem. • Expanding the Ecosystem Net: A hand-me-down iPhone given to a child, parent, or first-time iOS user represents a new active user on the network. • Services Monetization: These secondary users immediately begin spending on iCloud storage, Apple Music, and local App Store purchases. This ensures that even if Apple does not make money on the physical second-hand sale, its high-margin Services revenue continues to scale up in China. 4. Supply Chain Strain on Genuine Replacement Parts A sudden spike in the pool of 70 million used phones requires an enormous refurbishment infrastructure. • The Repair Bottleneck: The primary headwind for certified refurbishers in China will be accessing genuine OEM-grade replacement parts, specifically fresh batteries and screens. • The Gray Market Surge: Because official Apple-certified parts remain highly rationed, an extensive gray-market manufacturing ecosystem for aftermarket parts will boom in Shenzhen’s Huaqiangbei electronics district to satisfy the refurbishment rush. 5. Massive E-Waste Abatement and Carbon Offsets From a circular economy perspective, extending the life of 70 million premium devices serves as a massive environmental defense mechanism. • Carbon Displaced: Manufacturing a brand-new premium phone generates a high carbon footprint. Industry data indicates that reusing or extending the life of a single premium smartphone avoids an average of 55 kg of CO₂e emissions. • Environmental Impact: Re-deploying this massive pool of hardware into the market effectively abates millions of metric tons of carbon emissions, positioning this upgrade cycle as a major win for China’s national green circular economy goals.'
  • Bart Yee on Counterpoint: iPhone shipments in China grew 23% YOY in June quarter - '“Yes, and how many older iPhones are potential upgrades in China?” “The regulatory green light for Apple Intelligence in mainland China via Alibaba’s Qwen model unlocks a massive “AI super-cycle,” targeting an estimated 65 million to 75 million older iPhones in China that are physically unable to support on-device AI. The Upgrade Pool Scale in China Counterpoint Research data reveals that there are 95 million Apple Intelligence-capable iPhones actively in use across China. When weighed against Apple’s total active installed base in the country (which hovers between 160 million and 170 million devices), it means roughly 40% of all iPhones in China cannot run the new localized AI tools. [ Active iPhone Base in mainland China: ~165M Units ] ─► ~95M Units (AI-Capable: iPhone 15 Pro, 16 Series, 17 Series) ─► ~70M Units (NOT AI-Capable = Core Premium Upgrade Targets) ─> Includes: iPhone 13, 14, 15 Base, and older models Key Dynamics of the Chinese AI Super-Cycle • The Hardware RAM Line: Modern on-device AI models require robust physical hardware. Industry tracking highlights that 12GB of RAM is becoming the standard baseline for premium, local AI processing. While the 8GB models can handle entry-level queries, the upcoming iPhone 18 line and the premium folding Ultra are being explicitly marketed to unlock advanced, lag-free agentic actions via Alibaba’s local cloud. • Releasing the Pent-Up Demand: Chinese tech buyers are highly sensitive to software innovations. Because Apple Intelligence was absent from the mainland during its initial 2024–2025 global rollout, users delayed upgrading, stretching the average replacement cycle to around 38 months. The Alibaba integration acts as a psychological green light, triggering a massive release of that built-up consumer demand. • Neutralizing Huawei’s AI Advantage: Prior to this clearance, Huawei heavily leveraged its proprietary Pangu AI model to siphon premium users away from Apple. The localized Qwen partnership bridges the feature parity gap entirely, allowing Apple to aggressively market directly to the millions of luxury-tier users still holding onto older, non-AI hardware. Target Demographics Primed for a Q4 Upgrade Old iPhone Generation in China Estimated Base Size AI Eligibility Status Upgrade Probability (H2 2026) • iPhone 11 & 12 Series ~20 Million ❌ Total Incompatible Extremely High; past the 4-year lifecycle floor. • iPhone 13 & 14 Series ~30 Million ❌ Total Incompatible High; core premium segment looking for native AI features. • iPhone 15 & 16 Base Models ~20 Million ❌ Incompatible / Partial Moderate; form-factor driven buyers eye the Ultra or Pro lines.'
  • Bart Yee on Counterpoint: iPhone shipments in China grew 23% YOY in June quarter - '“any projections for the China market in Q3 and Q4 2026 and specifically for Apple and Huawei?” The broader Chinese smartphone market is projected to face widening contraction throughout H2 2026 due to an ongoing component supply crisis. However, Apple and Huawei are forecast to completely dominate and expand their market shares in both Q3 and Q4, turning the China market into a highly polarized two-horse race. The specific strategic projections for Apple and Huawei across the next two quarters reveal distinct paths to dominance: Q3 2026: Supply Insulation and Market Consolidation • The Second-Wave Pricing Wedge: In Q3, a second wave of retail price hikes will hit Android shelves as the cheap component inventories procured in late 2025 run entirely dry. While competitors are forced to raise prices again or cut lower-end inventory, Apple and Huawei will hold their price structures stable, drawing massive waves of hesitant upgrade-buyers. • Huawei’s Domestic Lock-In: Huawei is projected to maintain its No. 1 volume rank (aiming for a 20% shipment increase over the full year). It will leverage its highly resilient localized supply chain and massive demand for the Enjoy 90 Pro Max and Pura lines to capture price-sensitive consumers fleeing other inflating domestic brands. Apple’s Deflated Pre-Launch Q3: While Apple’s shipments will naturally slow slightly ahead of its autumn refresh, its Q2 growth of 23%—spurred by buyers intentionally pulling purchases forward to dodge expected H2 price hikes—gives it a highly stable financial cushion moving into the quarter. Q4 2026: The Premium Super-Cycle • Apple’s Localized AI Surge: Q4 is projected to yield record-breaking revenue for Apple in China. Following the crucial regulatory approval of Alibaba’s Qwen model to power Apple Intelligence natively on mainland devices, the upcoming iPhone refresh will capture an unprecedented volume of premium upgrades. • The Premium Foldable Battleground: Q4 will host a massive head-to-head clash in the luxury tier. Apple’s long-anticipated entry into the foldable space will expand the luxury market size, while Huawei will defend its margins using its successful wide-format Pura lines and next-generation Mate flagships. • Total Revenue Monopolization: By the end of Q4, Counterpoint and IDC projections indicate that Apple and Huawei will collectively control over 70% to 75% of the total dollar-value revenue in mainland China, effectively starving tier-2 competitors out of the premium segment. H2 2026 Projections Comparison Metric / Outlook • Q3 Shipment Trend Huawei – Strong Growth; absorbs mid-tier market flight. Apple – Stable / Moderate; sustained by iPhone 17 series residual momentum • Q4 Shipment Trend Huawei – High Volume Peak; driven by Mate-series upgrades. Apple – Extreme Surge; fueled by localized Apple Intelligence and hardware refreshes. • ASP Trajectory Huawei – Slightly Rising; premium device mix increases. Apple – Extremely High; driven heavily by Pro/Max lines and foldable entries. ((what’s not to like if you can maintain and then increase sales strongly, plus increase ASP’s (involuntarily to some extent) at the same time – a perfect storm provided the upper end China market is resilient AND big enough. “Would you like to explore how Alibaba’s local AI integration is expected to change the upgrade rate for older iPhone models in China this winter?“'
  • Bart Yee on Counterpoint: iPhone shipments in China grew 23% YOY in June quarter - 'Ok, given today’s Counterpoint report in overall Q2 China smartphone sales with Huawei at 23% market share (up 24% YoY) and Apple at 18% (but growing by 23% YoY), tell me how that works out revenue wise for each and the other Chinese smartphone vendors in the China market” “The specific market dynamics reported by Counterpoint Research create a profound revenue polarization. Even though Huawei leads in shipment volume, Apple continues to extract the lion’s share of profits, while other Chinese OEMs are trapped in a severe margin crisis. The financial breakdown under this 23% vs. 18% shipment dynamic operates on distinct revenue models: 1. Apple: The Revenue and Margin King (~40% to 45% Revenue Share) Despite sitting at an 18% volume share, Apple commands nearly half of the entire smartphone revenue pool in China. • Stable Pricing Leverage: While a severe memory supply crisis (tripling LPDDR4/5 component costs) forced Android brands to aggressively hike retail prices, Apple kept iPhone 17 series pricing stable. This created narrowing price parity, making the iPhone appear more cost-effective to premium buyers. • High Average Selling Price (ASP): Because Apple only competes in the premium segment, its baseline revenue per unit is several times higher than the market average, keeping its gross margins heavily insulated. 2. Huawei: Volume Dominance + High-End Mix (~28% to 32% Revenue Share) Huawei has captured its highest volume share since late 2020 at 23%, translating to a powerful secondary revenue block. • The Premium Mix Catalyst: Huawei’s revenue is heavily supported by ultra-premium products. The successful launch of the wide-format Pura X Max foldable and high-end foldables allows it to capture premium cash flows that mimic Apple’s margin structure. • The Volume Floor: High-volume mainstream series like the Enjoy 90 Pro Max provide a steady foundation of cash flow, even if their individual device margins are lower than the premium Pura and Mate lines. 3. Tier-2 Chinese OEMs: The Margin Squeeze (~25% to 30% Combined Revenue Share) The remaining 59% of shipment volume is split among brands like Vivo, Oppo, Xiaomi, and Honor. However, their combined revenue share is disproportionately low due to component inflation. • The Memory Crisis Trap: Unlike Apple and Huawei, these brands are heavily exposed to mid-and-low-tier price bands. The spike in RAM and storage component costs forced them to scale back lower-end production and protect margins rather than chase shipment volume. • Forced Retraction: Because they lack the extreme brand equity of Apple or Huawei, their forced retail price hikes have deterred upgrade buyers, shrinking their absolute dollar-volume revenue inside mainland China.” “tell me what that works out to in actual or estimated dollars of revenue for each vendor in the China market for Q2 2026?” “Based on Counterpoint Research and Omdia data, • Apple captured an estimated $11.66 billion in revenue from 11.90 million units • Huawei generated $9.88 billion from 15.20 million units in China’s Q2 2026 smartphone market. • The total market, valued at $34.80 billion, saw Other OEMs account for $13.26 billion, driven by rising component costs that increased average selling prices.” “what was each vendors China smartphone ASP?“ “The estimated Average Selling Price (ASP) for each vendor in the Chinese smartphone market during Q2 2026 is $980 for Apple, $650 for Huawei, and $340 collectively for the other Chinese OEMs. Vendor Price Strategy Analysis • Apple ($980 ASP): Apple maintains an ultra-premium positioning. Because it does not sell entry-level or low-end budget smartphones, its ASP remains heavily insulated near the thousand-dollar mark. The iPhone 17 series drives the bulk of this volume. • Huawei ($650 ASP): Huawei commands a premium mid-to-high tier ASP profile. While the brand sells massive volumes of luxury devices like wide-format foldables and the Pura series, its final average is balanced out by high-volume, lower-cost mainstream lines like the Enjoy 90 Pro Max. • Other Chinese OEMs ($340 ASP): Brands like Vivo, Oppo, Xiaomi, and Honor have historically averaged much lower ASPs due to broad portfolios of budget devices. However, their ASP of $340 is significantly higher than past years, driven entirely by a severe memory component crisis that forced them to aggressively raise retail prices to protect their margins.”'
  • Bart Yee on Counterpoint: iPhone shipments in China grew 23% YOY in June quarter - '“Does that say that 4.6M to 4.9M Huawei Fold sales could stay the same of drop slightly by 300K to 400K units to around 4.3M to 4.5M?” “Yes. That is a precise and highly accurate mathematical interpretation of how the market dynamics would play out. If Huawei’s baseline book-style sales are projected at 4.56 million units (from the 60% split of their 7.6M total), losing 300,000 to 400,000 units to Apple pulls their volume down to 4.16 million to 4.26 million units. However, because the introduction of the iPhone Ultra expands the overall market size, Huawei is highly likely to claw back some of that volume from smaller domestic competitors, keeping their net book-style sales stable in that 4.3 million to 4.5 million range. How the Math Breaks Down for Huawei’s Book-Style Segment [Baseline Projection: ~4.56M Units] ─► Minus 300K – 400K Units (Poached directly by Apple’s Ultra) ─► Temporary Dip to ~4.16M – 4.26M ─► Plus 150K – 240K Units (Recaptured from collapsing Tier-2 OEMs) ─► Net Stabilized Range: 4.3M to 4.5M Units Key Reasons for This Structural Stability • The Squeeze on Tier-2 Brands: While Apple poaches brand-agnostic luxury buyers from Huawei’s top tier, Huawei will simultaneously squeeze brands like Honor, Oppo, and Vivo. Customers who want a premium Chinese foldable but find themselves priced out of Huawei’s absolute highest tier will buy Huawei’s slightly older or mainstream book-style models instead of Tier-2 alternatives. • Format Innovation Defenses: Huawei’s ultra-premium tier will rely heavily on advanced form factors—such as tri-folds (Mate XT series) and extra-wide passport dimensions. Apple’s first-generation Ultra is highly unlikely to match these radical designs right away, leaving Huawei with a completely protected sub-segment of power users. • Enterprise and Government Lock-In: In China, a massive portion of Huawei’s premium consumer base consists of enterprise executives and government officials. Due to strict domestic data privacy initiatives and ecosystem alignments with HarmonyOS Next, this specific cohort cannot easily transition to an Apple device, protecting Huawei’s core volume floor. Will Other Chinese OEMs Suffer Worse? Yes, second-tier domestic manufacturers—specifically Honor, Vivo, Xiaomi, and Oppo—will suffer significantly worse structural damage than Huawei. • Lack of Premium Moat: Tier-2 Chinese brands rely heavily on undercut pricing and hardware gimmicks to attract premium buyers. They lack the absolute luxury brand equity that both Apple and Huawei possess in mainland China. • Squeezed From Both Sides: As Apple claims the top layer of the foldable market and Huawei fiercely defends its core base, smaller players like Honor (projected to slide to single-digit shares) will see their shelf space rapidly compressed. “Will they lose sales more to Huawei or to Apple?” “The other Chinese OEMs (Honor, Vivo, Xiaomi, and Oppo) will lose significantly more sales to Apple and Huawei than they will to each other. While Huawei will experience a minor segment overlap with Apple at the absolute apex of the luxury market, the second-tier Chinese brands are structurally exposed to losing massive volume. A fierce component crunch and memory shortage across the industry are squeezing margins. As a result, premium market share in China is heavily concentrating toward the top two ecosystem heavyweights. Why Tier-2 Chinese OEMs Face the Worst Deficits • Lack of Premium Pricing Power: Brands like Vivo, Oppo, and Xiaomi do not possess the premium brand equity required to weather aggressive market changes. According to IDC tracking data, Apple and Huawei’s domestic market shares are rising simultaneously as the industry premiumizes, leaving smaller players with shrinking chunks of the consumer base. • The Global Squeeze: Prominent industry projections highlight a stark future for other domestic foldables. When Apple enters the foldables space, Honor’s global foldable market share is expected to fall to a mere 3%, down from much higher historical baselines. • The HarmonyOS Next Factor: Huawei has locked in an elite corporate and government user base via its fully independent HarmonyOS Next ecosystem. Tier-2 OEMs still run on customized versions of Android, leaving their users far more fluidly open to switching back to iOS when the Apple Ultra drops.'
  • Bart Yee on Counterpoint: iPhone shipments in China grew 23% YOY in June quarter - 'Huawei’s projection above says global is 5.88M vs China 7.6M, which doesn’t compute but the math suggests some contraction or loss of sales in China, which is not clear. Let’s assume the 7.6M is currently the projection for 2026. If we take a 60:40 to 65:35 Fold:Flip split for Huawei, that means they sell 4.6M to 4.9M Folds and ~2.8-3.0M Flips. Market research suggests Apple’s Ultra will expand the China Foldables market by the end of 2026. Apple itself may be projected to sell 1.5M to 2.0M in China, with anywhere between 5.5M to 9.0M outside of China, leading to the 7M up to 10M total sales by end of 2026 or 1st quarter 2027. “Key Production and Allocation Factors Initial Supply Chain Allocation: • Supply chain reports note that the first-batch inventory reserved specifically for the Chinese market sits at just over 1 million units. This conservative volume reflects both the complexity of manufacturing the new ultra-premium book-style hinge and the fierce competition from entrenched domestic brands like Huawei. • Extreme Launch Window Backloading: Prominent supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo notes that assembly shipments will heavily skew toward the very end of the year. Only about 500,000 to 1 million units will ship worldwide in Q3 2026 during the initial launch phase. This will trigger immediate global supply deficits and long shipping backlogs regardless of the region. • High-Margin Pricing Strategy: Because the iPhone Ultra is anticipated to debut at a massive price tier of $2,300 to $2,500, international markets with mature, contract-subsidized carrier structures are expected to digest the high price point more fluidly than Chinese open-channel retail markets.” “is it possible or probable that Apple’s Ultra will steal some sales away from Huawei in China? if Apple sells 1.8 to 2M in China during 2H2026, how many sales might Huawei lose? or will the entire market expand? or will other Chinese OEMs suffer worse than Huawei?” Market Cannibalization and Share Shift Projections “It is highly possible and probable that Apple’s upcoming book-style foldable—frequently leaked as the iPhone Ultra—will steal sales directly from Huawei in China during H2 2026. However, because Apple’s entry into a new category historically acts as a massive catalyst, the entire premium foldable market will expand simultaneously. 2. Market Expansion vs. Net Loss The total foldable market in China will expand dramatically rather than remaining a zero-sum game. • The “Apple Effect”: Historically, when Apple introduces a new hardware form factor, it legitimizes the category for mainstream luxury buyers who were hesitant about screen durability or hinge creases. • Category Growth: Industry tracking reports project that Apple’s arrival will expand the total addressable foldable market. Instead of simply carving up the existing 7.6M Huawei projections, the total market volume will swell, allowing Huawei to maintain high volume shipments even while losing absolute percentage market share points to Apple.”'
  • Bart Yee on Counterpoint: iPhone shipments in China grew 23% YOY in June quarter - '“so for 2025 if the China Foldables market was 10.6M units, how many Foldables sold internationally and what was the total global Foldables sales?” Depending on which major analytical tracking firm’s global totals you apply, the numbers scale as follows: Scenario A: Using Counterpoint Research Metrics Total Global Sales: 19.6 million China Sales: 10.6 million International Sales (Outside China): 9.0 million Market Proportion: China 54.1% of global volume; International markets outside of China 45.9%. Scenario B: Using IDC Market Metrics Total Global Sales: 20.6 million units China Sales: 10.6 million International Sales (Outside China): 10.0 million Market Proportion: China 51.5% of global volume International markets 48.5%. What This Highlights The data shows that the global foldable market was almost a perfect 50/50 split between China and the rest of the world. Outside of China, Samsung captured the vast majority of those 9 to 10 million international shipments, as Chinese vendors largely kept their ultra-thin hardware exclusive to their domestic ecosystem. “Would you like to look into how Motorola’s international clamshell sales contributed to that 9–10 million international block, or explore Samsung’s global market share for the year?“ “Exactly how many Foldables did Samsung and Motorola sell globally and how many of each format?” Based on official 2025 data from Counterpoint Research, Samsung sold approximately 7.84 million foldables globally, while Motorola shipped roughly 1.57 million units. Tracking groups calculate exact performance percentages rather than single-unit retail receipts, showing that Samsung captured 40% of the global market, while Motorola secured roughly 8%. Applying those benchmarks against the 19.6 million total global sales pool yields the clear breakdown below. Samsung Global Format Breakdown Historically, Samsung’s shipments lean heavily toward its more accessible clamshell variant, though the gap closed slightly in 2025 due to a mid-year surge in book-style demand: • Clamshell Format (Galaxy Z Flip series): ~4.70 million units (Approx. 60% of their mix) • Book-Style Format (Galaxy Z Fold series): ~3.14 million units (Approx. 40% of their mix) Motorola Global Format Breakdown Motorola’s strategy relies almost exclusively on its highly competitive, fashionable clamshell footprint. Because they did not introduce a global commercial book-style device until later, their 2025 volume targets one specific category: • Clamshell Format (Razr series): ~1.57 million units (100% of their mix) Book-Style Format: 0 units (They did not compete in the global large-screen book tier in 2025)” “What are estimates for 2026 global Foldables sales by vendor?” “Full-year 2026 estimates project global foldable smartphone sales will reach between 24M and 27M units, representing a 20% to 21% YoY growth spike. According to newly consolidated forecasts from Counterpoint Research and Smart Analytics Global (SAG), the 2026 market landscape looks radically different from previous years. The arrival of long-anticipated hardware—specifically Apple’s late-year ultra-premium entry, Samsung’s newly introduced wide-format Z Fold8 & Tri-Fold form factors— is dramatically shifting market allocations. Projected 2026 Global Foldable Market Share by Vendor Based on Counterpoint’s localized shipment modeling applied to a baseline consensus of roughly 24.5M global units, the expected sales breakdown by manufacturer scales as follows: Samsung 32%, ~7.84M Apple 25%, ~6.13M ((remember, this is just for Sept-Dec 2026)) Huawei 24%, ~5.88M ((more on this below)) Motorola (Lenovo) 8%, ~1.96M Honor 3%, ~0.74M Others (Xiaomi, Vivo, etc.) 8%, ~1.96M Crucial Industry Shifts To Watch For The Remainder of 2026 • Samsung Retains a Narrowed Lead: While Samsung is successfully defending its global volume crown (projected at 32%), its overall footprint is dropping from 40% in 2025 due to unprecedented luxury competition. • The Apple Vacuum: Despite entering the calendar year late, Apple is estimated to capture a massive 25% unit slice and up to 34% of entire segment revenue in its debut year. This is due to an incredibly high expected average selling price near $2,400, pulling existing premium iOS users into the foldable ecosystem instantly. • Book-Type Formats Take the Crown: For the first time ever, massive book-style layouts are projected to dominate 65% of all global foldable sales (up from 52% last year). Clamshell flip phones are losing momentum as consumers demand wider screens to run multitasking, task execution, and side-by-side generative AI assistant workflows.”'