David Thall on Apple nears (or tops) analysts' average target - 'As a long-term Apple investor for decades, I mostly look at two things when it comes to assessing analyst targets. First, their respective track records. A consensus is a nice gauge, but not really worth that much except maybe as a weathervane. And it’s been my experience that the AAPL consensus is generally a low ball. Second, if an analyst works at a brokerage firm, then their primary responsible is to their client’s success. And very likely to be more conservative with their targets. I mean, if they lose their client’s dough, they’re going to lose their clients. Representing other people‘s money is going to make them more risk adverse. Not to mention it makes them look good when the stock price goes above their target instead of below it. MY TAKE Daniel Ives has an excellent track record, and historically has had the most bullish targets for Apple. His analysis is generally spot on. And his success is no coincidence. Analyst’s consensus target changes all the time. My confidence in Apple long-term hasn’t.'
on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'BTW, at some of our ages, it’s not necessary to wait a year or hold in the same venue. For example, there’s a number of us down in SoCal where another meeting could be held at any time. Same for other locations across the country depending on geographic concentration of Apple 3.0 subscribers.'
on Mark Gurman: Maybe the Apple Car wasn't a dead end - 'I think even more important is the path for the A20 and beyond chips. They are rumored to be using a smaller architecture than the A19 (2 nm vs 3nm), with more dedicated space for the Neural Processing Unit. The effect on AI and Siri will be huge. I suspect Apple will have some more tricks up its sleeve with 2 nm.'
on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'It was a pleasure seeing everyone in person. Shoutout also to Allan for being a pre-dinner docent at the Apple Visitor center he helped bring to life!'
on Jony Ive's AI project draws a lawsuit from Apple - '”Judging from the SpaceX IPO” All evidence aside, there a finite amount of investor capital available for IPOs. Even before this revelation, I think SpaceX took those fearing they will miss out, then dropping significantly (~41% in less than a month after its initial IPO), is going to cause a lot of second thinking about high flyer IPOs. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of hires use this suit as an excuse to move on.'
on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'It was a great evening. Phil, how many minutes did it take to get from your hotel to the airport?!'
on Jony Ive's AI project draws a lawsuit from Apple - 'This looks like a completely unforced error by OpenAI and increasingly stellar bad judgement by Jony I see this as a company that reflects the morals (or lack thereof) of its founder, just like Meta. And I would have expected better from Sir Jony, to not be sucked into such an ethical morass.'
on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'I’ll definitely try to go to the next one if you can make it, Gregg. You are all rock stars here and def all those that were there last night, and it would be great to greet face-to-face our other superstars unable to make it. Cheers!!'
on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'Great to see the happy faces and connect them with at least some of the familiar names. Wish I could have been there.'
on Mark Gurman: Maybe the Apple Car wasn't a dead end - 'Agreed. And it’s what us peeps on this blog have known for years. It was absolutely not a waste of time , resources or talent.'
on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'BTW, I consider this “privileged information”, presently shared only with attendees. Please respect that some may not want their info shared outside that group.'
on Silvant's Michael Sansoterra doesn't believe in Apple AI - 'I would think that a little research on the historical performance of AAPL, it’s corporate structure, it’s extraordinary customer loyalty, the fact that it isn’t in the news because it’s firing a measurable percentage of its employees because it miscalculated in recent past hiring, or raising capital to burn on AI capex would engender a bit of reflection on the wisdom of negative prognostications about AAPL future performance. Or not.'
on Apple nears (or tops) analysts' average target - 'For fun look at Koyfin’s PT vs AAPL price over time. Most interesting, less than a year ago, the highest PT was $300.'
on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'I have really enjoyed reading the bios. And now faces (and later names) to add to the bios. And for those of you who wished you had added your bio it’s not too late. Now is the time while memories of the event are fresh in everyone’s mind'
