Kirk Burgess on Mark Gurman: 'Apple’s iPhone Duo preorders were an absolute disaster' - 'What a boneheaded response by Gurman. The alternative choice he suggested Apple had was to piss off every apple consumer globally who wanted a Duo outside of US/China – creating negative consequences for the brand, rather than treat everyone equally (which they wisely chose to do).'
on Mark Gurman: 'Apple’s iPhone Duo preorders were an absolute disaster' - 'Richard: Please let us know how it works out for you. I’m researching how to have the HomePod minis handle the sound for all of the audio inputs in the room. I’m planning to add a Nintendo Switch 2 to the home system and eliminate a receiver and blu-ray player.'
on Mark Gurman: 'Apple’s iPhone Duo preorders were an absolute disaster' - '“yet Bloomberg sends other reporters whom Gurman has to talk to by video call to get what was happening, who was there, and physical interactions and impressions of the actual hardware and/or talking to Apple representatives. “Yet, isn’t it odd that Gurman isn’t there in person like so many other invited reporters and now influencers” It is definitely a unique arrangement, but it isn’t odd when looking at how Bloomberg structure their investigative reporting. The division of labor between Mark Gurman and the rest of the Bloomberg newsroom is a deliberate strategy rather than an omission. • Separation of “Scoops” vs. “Specs”: Bloomberg separates investigative reporting from product reviewing. Gurman’s job is exclusively corporate investigation—breaking news about leadership shakeups, supply chain delays, and unreleased roadmaps months in advance. Bloomberg sends general tech editors, field reporters, and video crews to handle the hands-on hardware impressions, physical interactions, and direct questions to Apple PR representatives. • The “Source Protection” Factor: In-person press events are heavily managed environments. Reporters are surrounded by Apple PR handlers, executives, and other journalists. For an investigative reporter whose entire career relies on highly sensitive corporate leaks, spending a day shaking hands with Apple executives in public is a massive conflict. Gurman talking to his colleagues afterward allows Bloomberg to aggregate hands-on details without their main investigative asset being handled or pressured by corporate PR on-site. • Influencer Crowds vs. Serious Journalism: Apple has drastically shifted its invite lists toward lifestyle influencers, YouTubers, and creators who prioritize aesthetic content and immediate hype. Bloomberg is a global financial wire. They don’t need Gurman to stand in a crowded room filming a hands-on video; they need him at a secure desk analyzing what the launch means for Apple’s stock, market share, and fiscal quarter. Ultimately, Gurman’s absence from the physical crowd is a sign of his unique role: he is an industry analyst and corporate reporter, while the colleagues he calls are the boots-on-the-ground journalists gathering the tactical product details.” At least that’s Gurman’s and Bloomberg’s spin on it, use him strategically in studio and podcasts, let him work his inside sources securely, get his scoops, ironically report on specs and details before release and then confirm those specs w/cub reporters in the field that go instead. Yeah, sure. Waste of his time to travel, not to attend, not to be invited or allowed to do interviews w/any number of key people, waste of time to engage in Apple PR or marketing and prescribed messaging. I suppose it’s true. I don’t know whether Apple stopped inviting him or he gets the invite and chooses / is told Not to go. Maybe it would appear to be a conflict of Gurman actually accepts Apple invite, gets flown and housed on Apple’s dime (sorry, $5 bill, inflation) like the influencers are, and actually sees first hand the products he supposedly scooped. Look at his after event reporting and quarterbacking – no products in hand, no invited short session exposures, no actual use for some time, so he has to offer his opinions based on scoops, hearsay, final Apple introduction, and then wait to eventually obtain his own and MAYBE report or review. But I suppose Bloomberg doesn’t want him reviewing actual products because info is more important, especially negative info or slant that moves the market per Bloomberg, so the hit pieces and click-bait. I can see Monday’s remarked Bloomberg headline: “Apple Botches Duo Pre-orders, Delivery Times Into 2027 Leave Apple’s Best Customers Fuming, • Apple’s clearly antiquated and inadequate Preorder system failed yet again. • Apple Risks Losing Billions in Sales or User Defections to Samsung and Android • Apple’s Duo production woes make launch inventory wholly inadequate for a global launch to the dismay of rabid buyers • First big misstep or mistake of Ternus’ CEO tenure • Sources say recovery and demand / supply balance not likely till February or March 2027 • Why didn’t Apple foresee this issue and better manage the launch by limiting to US and China? AAPL shares are down 1% after Bloomberg broke the news.'
on Mark Gurman: 'Apple’s iPhone Duo preorders were an absolute disaster' - 'I’ve been trying to create a Bayesian inference model based on announced shipping dates for 70 countries during the December quarter. Variables include population of each market, total number of Apple Stores, total number of authorized 3rd party retailers and iPhone share of each market. Of the 70 countries Apple said were in the initial shipment allotment I can only find 18 that begin shipping on OCT 23. Another 28 begin shipping on the 23rd. The remaining twenty-two are not referenced as to Country or ship date. I don’t think we will see any announcements on the latter group until the March quarter. There is no verifiable iPhone Duo shipment estimates during the December quarter. Apple guided 11% YoY iPhone revenue qrowth during the September quarter. With the information available at this time it is impossible to create a model that can produce support for Gurman’s assertions iPhone Duo’s pre-order commencement is an unmitigated disaster. To the contrary, there is no way to make any authoritative statements as to the success, or failure, of the iPhone preorder launch. There simply aren’t enough data points to support any kind of presumptive declarations other than Gurman is talking completely out of his ass, as is his historic modus operandi. Investment decisions (either way) based on Gurman’s article, are doomed to failure. What is needed are reports from statistical professionals, or better yet, a definitive statement from Apple. Gurman is neither of these. He is a certified rumor monger that is compensated by how much he can influence AAPL’s short term price. One thing we do know is that total Android foldables sales were projected to be ~20,000,000 units during calendar 2025 (a 10% YoY increase from 2024). If Android sales follow Apple’s 16 year seasonal pattern, then December 2026 total Android units sold during the December quarter may equal ~7,000,000 units worldwide. If iPhone Duo’s December quarter estimated units sold (based on combined iPhone revenue results and limited Duo availability) were to equal 2,000,0000 units I would declare iPhone Duo a resounding success. It would also mean that if Apple only prepared for 2,000,000 units, backlog could easily extend to late January. Somehow, I don’t think Apple delayed taking orders for non-Pro iPhone 18s until the March quarter for a mere 2,000,000 iPhone Duos.'
on Mark Gurman: 'Apple’s iPhone Duo preorders were an absolute disaster' - 'I accidentally liked my own comment. And then, to try to fix it, I tapped it again, thinking it might take my vote away, but it added another one! So two of the votes on my comment above are accidentally from me.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (10/19-10/23/26) - 'Much as I like Dan, he miss-read the Muse Spark Open on Mac deal. It’s not just toll-taker. It’s about running agentic work and code generation on-prem, mainly on Mac Studio, even clustered up to 4 Studios. Fully kitted up, that’s north of $100K. Guessing at the benefits for the buyers: 1. Data sovereignty, locked by secure enclave and on-prem. 2. Mac’s Unified memory plus Muse optimizations may the cost (not price) to produce tokens. Note: Anthropic claims their gross margins are 80%, or 5X their cost to produce tokens. With Baltra, the Broadcomm chips join M-series, Muse on Mac goes to the next level. Apple plays the long game.'
on Mark Gurman: 'Apple’s iPhone Duo preorders were an absolute disaster' - '@Robert Those controllers are currently sold out.'
on Mark Gurman: 'Apple’s iPhone Duo preorders were an absolute disaster' - 'I’m also replacing two similarly aged Apple TVs. The one in the living room already has a nice Nakamichi soundbar 9.2.4 system. But I am interested in the possible sound 4 HomePods would make in the bedroom. I’ll wait to see some reviews of the sound but it might not take much.'
on Mark Gurman: 'Apple’s iPhone Duo preorders were an absolute disaster' - 'It would add “intelligence” to the presentation, right?'
on Mark Gurman: 'Apple’s iPhone Duo preorders were an absolute disaster' - 'Eddie is not pleased. Shocker. He can write anything he wants as that’s his right. Just as I can call him a complete uninformed useless waste of oxygen. That’s my right. When I first saw this Duo device my initial reaction was: “WOW.” Apparently I wasn’t the only one. With this Duo on an immediate huge backorder nanoseconds after it was made available for preorder is no different than tickets going on sale for the “Rolling Stones” or Taylor Swift.” Keep writing your drivel Eddie, as I enjoy the angst it causes you deep inside knowing that Tim Cook, probably one of the nicest people on the planet doesn’t like you either.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (10/19-10/23/26) - 'As regards Muse, Apple has shown us how it can work closely with Alphabet and still protect its user’s privacy. Meta has looked at the positive impact on Alphabet’s valuation and recognized a niche where they can do the same. The open-weight model is the direction Apple is taking. It only needs to secure personal privacy from whatever open-weight model its users are offered to fit that scenario, regardless of the “owner” of that model. Bottom line: I’ve trusted Apple and never been betrayed. If they say an open-weight model can be trusted, I will almost certainly trust Apple on this as well. That said, I will only trust Meta about as far as I can throw President Trump, which, at 80, isn’t very far at all.'
on Mark Gurman: 'Apple’s iPhone Duo preorders were an absolute disaster' - 'Apparently Apple “mistakenly” under priced the Duo phone! Its price is not high enough to depress demand to normalize shipping times! Leaving money on the table like an underpriced IPO stock hitting the market. Now if Apple was expecting about 5 Million in Duo sales before the end of 2026 calendar year and they have received more would they really complain? Do we think production bottlenecks are so severe they aren’t going to release them fast enough to fill the demand over time? How they modeled this year’s fall IPhone releases is really the point. Did they screw up and create a situation where the companies revenue doesn’t grow as expected with this release or do they have more growth doing it this way? May not know for a while as this is really a different year than most. Drawing conclusions after the first day with no real information is silly. If you told me no one is ordering the phone anymore because the back log is too big I think I would want to wait longer than the first weekend to draw conclusions.'
on Mark Gurman: 'Apple’s iPhone Duo preorders were an absolute disaster' - 'I was trying to update the edit to anything at 512 GB and my time was up. So 512 in either color at Best Buy for Nov 10th if anyone is interested.'
