Gregg Thurman on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - '”Any comments?” Yes. Your example covers a 2 year period. My example covers a 22 year period. Both are valid as far as they go. It may be that I should look for periods where historic trend shifts start and stop, example: AAPL’s adherence to a 22 year trend may be greatly challenged, as a clearer AI strategy (a major catalyst) is revealed by Apple. My gut tells me that the seasonality of Apple’s revenue will revert to the norm over time. That reversion could take some time. As AI has the potential to greatly impact revenue trends for an extended time (3-5 years?), my historical analysis may prove to be out of date. The launch of iPhone 6 and iPad could be comparable shift periods.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'That’s for NVdia, not Apple. “ On September 28, 2026, NVIDIA announced that its Board of Directors authorized a historic $150 billion increase to its existing share repurchase program. This massive addition brought the company’s total remaining buyback authorization to $235 billion, which management expects to execute through fiscal year 2028 (ending January 2028). It stands as the largest single stock buyback authorization increase in U.S. corporate history, surpassing Apple’s $110 billion program from 2024. Prior to this record-setting move, the company (NVDA) had last expanded its repurchase program by $80 billion just a few months earlier in May 2026.” Apple authorized its $110B in buybacks on May 2, 2024. Apple also authorized $100B in 2025 AND 2026. That’s $310B over the past 3 years, with another potential authorization of $100B in about 8 months. While NVDA is flush with cash now and is rewarding shareholders with it, let’s see if they will have a sustained buyback run even close to Apple’s breadth and scope.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - '”My apologies in advance, Gregg, if I got this wrong… You didn’t. You actually explained my post better than I did. Thank you. A very long time ago, a poster on an AOL AAPL forum said AAPL’s trading problem was the way it traded. He argued that Apple’s 4th quarter should be its highest, and that its 1st quarter should be the lowest with each subsequent quarter rising until it got to the December quarter. I responded that Apple’s FISCAL 4th quarter was the highest because it corresponded to the highest of the calendar year, both of which was the December quarter. This led me to study the relationship of Apple’s quarters to each other. What I found was that Apple’s FQ1 (December quarter) established a base from which you could forecast revenue for FQ2, FQ3 and FQ4 as each represented a constant percentage of the full year, ie., December quarter (FQ1) represented ~31% of the full year. March quarter (FQ2) represented ~24% of the full year. June quarter (FQ3) represented ~22% of the full year. September quarter (FQ4) represented ~23% of the full year. This pattern emerged after Apple shifted iPhone launch from July to September. If you divide December results by 31% you get projected annual revenue. If you then multiply each subsequent quarter by its representative percent you get a fairly accurate estimate of each quarter’s revenue. AAPL’s prints follow the same pattern as it follows revenue. This explains the post-WWDC selloff each year, as AAPL rallies going into the event, but that rally is not based on anticipated revenue for that quarter. AAPL gets ahead of its annual pattern and a natural selloff immediately follows. Generally the last week of June establishes a new quarter (September) with a new, higher, historical, revenue expectation that is reinforced by management’s September quarter GUIDANCE issued at the end of July. Generally AAPL rallies from its Summer low (around July 4th) ~25% to December quarter Earnings report and March quarter GUIDANCE. I back tested this to 2004, omitting 2008 and 2009 because their results were so far out of the norm. The percentages by which AAPL adheres to its historic pattern is subject to launch dates and customer response to new products. There will always be macro events. Their severity is always unknown until a week or two has passed from their onset.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'Gregg, thanks, that’s what I surmised rereading your blended statements, you believe January’s report Guidance (for Q2 FY2027) will show a 20% decline of Earnings (and/or Revenues?) from the December Quarter (Q1 FY 2027). Let’s look at the prior 2 years of “normal” iPhone Q1 and Q2 cadences. FY2025 vs FY2024 Q1 rev. & Earnings YoY $124.30B vs $119.58B +4% $2.40 vs $2.18 +10% Q2 rev & Earnings YoY $95.36B vs $90.75B +5% $1.65 vs $1.53 +7.8% 2024 sequential Q2/Q1 Revenue $90.75B/$119.58B = -24.1% EPS $1.53/$2.18 = -29.8% 2025 Sequential Q2/Q1 Revenue $95.36B/$124.30B = -23.3% EPS $1.65/$2.40 = -31.3% FY2026 Q1 Rev & Earnings YoY $143.76B vs $124.30B +16% $2.84 vs $2.40 +18% Q2 Rev & Earnings YoY $111.18B vs $95.36B +17% $2.01 vs $1.65 +22% 2026 Sequential Q2/Q1 Revenue $111.18B/$143.76B = -22.7% EPS $2.01/$2.84 = -29.2% So over the last 3 years for the first two fiscal quarters, sequential declines from blockbuster Q1’s to very good Q2’s has been: Revenue % -24.1 + -23.3 + -22.7 = -70.1/3 = -23.4% average. EPS % -29.8 + -31.3 + -29.2 = -90.3/3 = -30.1% average Note despite ever increasing revenues in Q1’s, Q2 has increased a little higher (or grown a little faster), percentage wise, slowly bringing down the sequential gap from Q1 to Q2, meaning revenues in Q2 are rising at a slightly higher rate than Q1, assuming that Q1 was acceptably high enough (usually beyond expectations). EPS is a different story because even if net income grew similarly, the share count is also decreasing sequentially (but not linearly due to buybacks vs shares issued for compensation), making EPS numbers in this narrow window harder to interpret. But at least the sequential EPS of Q2/Q1 2026 is the lowest differential of the 3 years. So a decline of ~20% sequentially of Q2/Q1, assuming Q1 is still a very good to blockbuster quarter, (which is a question given the increased prices, split iPhone introduction missing the usually hot selling base iPhone model and the general economic state of most consumers for last quarter 2026), would suggest Q2 was actually increasing or accelerating at least revenues and EPS (maybe). This was suggested as an unstated goal by some analysts to help even out surges in revenues, plus move base, Air (middle iPhone) and e models revenues into and above previous Q2 quarters at the end and/or pushing full quarter iPhone revenue increases into sequentially Q3 Quarters. Personally, I think Apple moving base and other models helps keep high cost TSMC advanced node processor production much more evenly spaced, allows for easier yield and accumulation of SoC chips, maybe hoping for some memory chip cost moderation by evening out demand, and reduces Foxconn/Apple labor costs by reducing holiday labor surge demands at iPhone City plants in China, maybe even continued tariff relief. This takes a much broader 30,000 ft view of production from basic supplies to finished products and may further optimize production cost savings, helping to mitigate margin pressures brought on by memory costs and best preserving hardware margins. Any comments?'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'As I continue my journey to a more resplendent and impactful life I’ve chosen this week to reinvigorate the discussions in the AAPL Independent Analysts group on LinkedIn. If you’d like to connect on Linkedin, please use this URL and send a connection request. www.linkedin.com/in/robertleitao Once we connect I’ll send an invitation to join the group. I enjoy increasing the number of venues for informed conversations about Apple.'
on Château de Mercuès - 'We usually go with Vermont Bicycle Tours (VBT). This time we tried Backroads. More expensive. Better lodging.'
on Château de Mercuès - 'Glad to hear you’re having a blast, PED! Just remember please: You’re no longer a spring chicken, so pace yourself! Aside from you being the cement for this blog, we care deeply about you, and wish you and yours long and rewarding lives!'
on Château de Mercuès - 'If I might ask, are you doing this via an organized tour group? if so, is there a particular tour guide biz you might recommend?'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'Morning, Bart. Just to drop my oar in, Gregg’s two comments sound contradictory, but aren’t necessarily so. “GUIDANCE, while reflecting solid YoY growth, will reflect a decline in Revenue and Earnings of ~20% from the December quarter.” “January EARNINGS report reflected YoY growth [in the December quarter], GUIDANCE will reflect a ~20% decline [in March quarter earnings relative to the usual massive December quarter earnings].” That is, the percentage of year over year earnings for the March quarter may go up ( and almost certainly will!), but not as much as the sheer amount of year over year earnings for the December quarter year over year earnings. Why is that important? The clue is in this statement, IMO: “January GUIDANCE can help mitigate the transition from January results.” That to me says: Everyone expects a blowout December earnings report. What will be important is the guidance for the March earnings report. Remember that Gregg is watching Investor Sentiment (IS) very closely, with an eye towards predicting future IS. My apologies in advance, Gregg, if I got this wrong….'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - '”GUIDANCE will reflect a ~20% decline” from the December quarter. I may have overstated the equity’s decline based on average revenue decline going from Q1 to Q2.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - '“ Massively expanding its share buyback program…” Thanks, Robert! My ears just perked….'
on Château de Mercuès - 'PED: Is this an e-bike tour? Or are you and the others peddling away using solely leg muscle?'
on Château de Mercuès - 'Having spent time in that area myself, I highly recommend “the black wines of Cahors”… smooth, dark, yummy. By the way, as I recall, that Mercues chateau is high up… not a leisurely bike ride from the main road. Enjoy your trip!'
on Château de Mercuès - 'Looks like PED is eating well! The gastronomic experience The Lot Valley, on the outskirts of Cahors, nestled between the wild Causse plateau and sweeping meanders, is home to a wealth of culinary treasures: black truffles, saffron, foie gras, free-range lamb… La Table de Mercuès offers an immersive experience of cuisine deeply rooted in this region. Chef Clément Costes welcomes every guest as an invitation to discover a sensitive and discerning interpretation of the Lot region and Occitanie. His commitment is based on a firm conviction: cooking begins with respect for the produce. Ingredients are carefully selected, prioritising those sourced locally – grown or reared within 100 km – in order to preserve their identity. This approach gives rise to a true poetry of flavours, expressed through three set menus – ‘Découverte’, ‘Balade’ and ‘Voyage’ – comprising 3, 4 or 6 courses. A gourmet restaurant where precision of execution meets emotion. The menu may change depending on the day’s catch and availability'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'Massively expanding its share buyback program, NVIDIA’s shares are up $4.68 or 2.08% at $229.75 in late morning trading. Apple is off $.020 at $340.87 after setting a new all-time closing high on Friday. At 11:30am in the east, 72% of S&P 500 components are in the red. All four major indexes are also below Friday’s closing levels.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'Put it right here! Seems like any new Kiraa video is worth watching.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'Gregg Said: “It should have read while January EARNINGS report reflected YoY growth, GUIDANCE will reflect a ~20% decline.” I don’t quite understand what you’re saying here. “January earning report will reflect YoY growth” presumably for FY2021 Q1 holiday quarter, but “GUIDANCE will reflect a ~20% decline.”? You’re expecting Q2 FY2027 guidance to guide to or experience a decline of ~20% YoY? The numbers that I’ve been able to find suggest revenues (if there’s clamoring for the iPhone 18 base introduction to come out in March 2027 so as to catch some revenue in the March quarter), revenue should increase low to mid double digits despite a YoY record and difficult compare. Am I reading your comment correctly?'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'Not sure where to put this – there’s a fascinating new video from Kiraa: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjTiabGNdVs'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'The Just read my reply. It was incomplete. It should have read while January EARNINGS report reflected YoY growth, GUIDANCE will reflect a ~20% decline.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'While much has been said about Meta’s release of Muse and the corresponding 32% jump in the share price over the past month, on a one-year basis the shares are up less than 1%. Microsoft, which rose $18.24 or 3.66% on Friday to $516.17 on news of greater software integration into Copilot, is up about 2% over the past year. Apple’s one-year share price performance is about 33%. This isn’t to say Meta and Microsoft won’t see higher share prices in the coming weeks. It’s just that share price gains are quite not quite as easy as some headlines might suggest. On Friday Apple did set a new all-time closing high.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'Chris, I’ve done that in the past. It’s the logical move, but January GUIDANCE, while reflecting solid YoY growth, will reflect a decline in Revenue and Earnings of ~20% from the December quarter. It’s difficult to discern which investors will go. Today I prefer seeing how the market is reacting, then entering the market accordingly. Better to lose a bit on the entry, than to lose a lot on the exit. January GUIDANCE can help mitigate the transition from January results. It’s the difference between the uninformed (retail) and the informed (institutional) investor. Who will prevail?'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - '@Gregg: If the guidance is good and you feel it portends even better FQ1 results, then I would go for the February options as January options expire just before the Q1 reporting. (Assuming the Q1 reporting will juice the stock price.)'
on Apple at $341.07: A new record close - 'Yep, NVDA and AAPL are the only two companies who have surpassed the €4 Trillion mark, NVDA at €4.76T currently and AAPL at €4.40T. No other company has breached €4T and none have breached €5T in euros, so far. Today, NVDA is at $5.43T USD and AAPL is at $4.977T USD, needing to clear and close above $342.71 to get to $5T again (slightly higher price due to slight decrease in shares because of recent buybacks). The highest EU company currently is ASML, the supplier for highest resolution semiconductor lithography used to created ever smaller semiconductors at €566B or $670B USD, placing it #21 in worldwide market cap.'
on Apple at $341.07: A new record close - 'Joseph, It just goes to show. As Roseanne Roseannadanna used to say “its always something”'
on Saturday Apple video: The Smithsonian Steve Jobs Interview (4/20/95) - 'He talked about the school system almost stamping out his sense of curiosity at a young age. Glad he prevailed.'
on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'Yes, yes, yes! 1000 times yes! My old Time Capsule is suffering terribly, and I actually do occasionally rely on Time Machine to unf*ck personal errors. I would love to Apple to be my home WiFi network. All my home gear is dependent on WiFi. I want that to be Apple. (Nothing against Eero, but I want it to be Apple.)'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'It would appear that with recent product announcements, the market thinks Apple/AAPL has a future. I’m content to wait for October’s Earnings Report and GUIDANCE. If GUIDANCE is to my liking I’ll be jumping into ATM (on the day I buy)January options, using the balance of my $42,500 wild money account.'


