Recent Comments

  • Gregg Thurman on Can Apple deliver privacy-safe agentic AI? (video) - 'Circular argument that says nothing.'
  • Gregg Thurman on KeyBanc: Apple Services is 'outgrowing sustainable growth' - 'Brandon is jumping back and forth between hardware and Services growth rates and geographic growth rates to come to his conclusion that Service growth rates are unsustainable. Its no wonder he’s confused. Brandon, I suggest you look at Apple’s results holistically. Investors buy into the whole pie, not cherry picked pieces of it.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - 'June expiry Open Interest is exceptionally high at $330. This suggests that Investor Sentiment for WWDC is very positive. Currently, July Open Interest leader (>40,000 contracts) is at $310 reflecting the annual Summer slump. Adding 25% to the current July “Call Wall” generates a January Price Target of $388. However, as we move past the July 4th week (and closer to July Earnings) I expect Open Interest leader to shift upwards to $320, that has a current Breakeven point at $325. Adding 25% to my projected July “Call Wall” and Breakeven point generates a January Price Target of $400 – $406. The Open Interest high for near term Options is a great indicator of future Investor Sentiment.'
  • Bart Yee on Pivotal moment: Mark Gurman paints Apple AI as a power struggle - 'I didn’t bother to read the “here’s all I know about WWDC” or this gossip article with any specific understanding of “features” or AI complexity or the machinations behind what was going on internally with AI and Siri Development. I don’t want to give Gurman any satisfaction of ruining Apple’s presentation or announcements, and I certainly will not read into internal personnel and chain of command matters which are private. I also don’t care if he or Bloomberg thinks they are “moving the stocks” or influencing institutional or active fund managers into their next moves in Monday or this week of WWDC. Why? Because although Apple “hasn’t delivered” the blockbuster AI killer app in the two years since Apple Intelligence was announced, Apple HAS expanded the use of AI / Machine learning into multiple apps that people use every single day, and with much of iOS 26, continued that trend. During that same time period, from 2023-2024-2025, supposedly while falling behind in AI, Apple iPhone and Mac sales and revenue increased iPhone Calendar Year stats 2024 232M +3% $200.6B +0.5% ASP $865 (from 225M iPhones sold previous 2023 Calendar year. 2025 247M +6.5% $225.7B +12.5% ASP $914 1HFY2026 $142.3B +23% Mac revenues: 2024 FY $29.98B +2% 2025 FY $33.71B +12% 1HFY26 $16.78B -1% in a production constrained environment. Even without long term AI product or plans unveiled, hardware sales continue to rise, just not as fast as some feel they should. Meanwhile, Apple (and NVidia) are really the only two hardware makers monetizing AI to any great extent.'
  • Gregg Thurman on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/8-6/12/26) - '” Anyone eagerly getting in line to jump on the SpaceX IPO or to grab shares on the first day of trading?” No, not ever, at any price after the IPO.'
  • John Konopka on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'Joe, If there is still room I’ll commit to a spot. I’m flying back from Michigan around that time. I can change my flight and come back a few days earlier to attend this meet up. Looking forward to it. John'
  • Bill Donahue on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/8-6/12/26) - 'Something I’ve been thinking about recently is the idea of “good” vs “bad” money, as defined by Clayton Christensen and Michael Raynor from the Harvard Business School. That is, investment capital (and investor sentiment) that is “patient for growth but impatient for profits” (good) vs investment capital that is “patient for profits but impatient for growth” (bad). And their thesis that early investment in companies offering the former tends to facilitate success, while investment in companies offering – or insisting on – the latter tends to lead to failure. This is especially applicable to all the LLM-based AI froth out there and the absolutely extreme capex for data centers by soooo many companies, and now also the mega-IPOs anticipated in the very near future. OpenAI has struck me as the extreme of the latter: a company that wildly hypes potential growth – and is committed to spending to support it – while completely ignoring the need for (or reality of) potential profitability (or even revenue, in OpenAI’s case). There’s a good article that came out on this exact thing yesterday in fortune, by Rory McDonald, for those interested in going down that hole a bit. And your question about interest in the SpaceX IPO brought it to mind again, RPL, for obvious reasons: “When good money goes bad: the question SpaceX and OpenAI investors aren’t asking” https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/good-money-goes-bad-spacex-103000391.html'
  • Bill Donahue on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/8-6/12/26) - 'Not a chance. It’s estimated value based on the IPO is insane, and based entirely on Elon Musk’s reality distortion field when it comes to corporate finances, planning, delivery, timelines, profitability, financials, or even basic honesty and accountability. If you agree that xAI is worth $250 billion, then maybe it makes sense. Add to that that he’s ensured that the company will always be controlled by him, and that the Board no doubt does whatever they tell him, and the result is that nobody will be able or willing to control his behaviour and he’ll do whatever he wants with and in the company, including doing things that shareholders vote down in special votes because he doesn’t care what shareholders decide (as he did late last year in Tesla).'
  • Bill Donahue on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/8-6/12/26) - 'A 257% ROI since April 8 is definitely winning, Gregg. And listen to yourself, if you’re thinking your recent behaviour is concerning.'
  • Bill Donahue on Ives and Kantrowitz on Apple's WWDC (video) - 'I’m 100% with you on the strategy at not looking at the granularity of news, Gregg. Other than digging into financial details where and when I can find them and assuming they’re actually released. Both of those also have me agreeing 100% with you that AI as it stands today – or at least consumer AI for consumer purposes – is almost entirely hot air (and a mind boggling amount of money being dumped into a black hole). Apple is in the catbird seat on AI, IMO. And maybe even some more analysts will see that later this week, assuming Apple says something substantial about where it’s going with AI.'
  • Bill Donahue on Ives and Kantrowitz on Apple's WWDC (video) - 'Gregg – I’d add that the majority of users who respond to surveys saying they want to use AI also don’t know why.'
  • Bill Donahue on Pivotal moment: Mark Gurman paints Apple AI as a power struggle - 'Hold on a sec – Gurman’s timelines are all off: “…a decade ago, former hardware chief Dan Riccio … directed Rockwell to create a five-year road map to overhaul Siri. … By the time Apple held its annual Top 100 retreat in March 2025… Cook was in the final stages of approving the plan.” So in 2025 Cook reviewed a 5-year plan started in 2015? Based on what Gurman wrote, I have absolutely no idea who did what or when.'
  • Dan Scropos on Pivotal moment: Mark Gurman paints Apple AI as a power struggle - '“Federighi wanted software engineering to retain ownership of AI and Siri.” Federighi lost that privilege. He should not have survived the Apple Intelligence debacle. With unlimited resources and cash, Apple Intelligence has remained worst in class for 2 years. Outsourcing Google for a paradigm shift is something I never thought I’d see. Let’s hope Rockwell gets his Senior VP promotion and that Federighi joins Cook in some other role. Ternus and Rockwell seem to be much more in tune with current and future tech, while Cook and Federighi seemed more focused on iterative improvements. That Apple shareholders must wait with bated breath to see if Gemini can make Apple Intelligence a marketable product tomorrow is unthinkable. That Federighi is still in charge of AI is unconscionable.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - '@David: I’ll send that request to Eddie. After all the drivel he writes, this will be his first opportunity to write something accurate about Apple. While he’s seated in the corner of course.'
  • Joseph Bland on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'Hi, David, I’m going to try to set up my iPhone on a stand in a corner and set it to record in landscape mode, preferably in 3d. Not sure how long it can record or how long the battery will last, though. I’ll then attempt to edit it down, and all attendees will receive a copy of the edited version, including PED, who can share it to whichever 3.0 member wants a copy. BTW, we’re up to 20 confirmed attendees including 5 wives…. Joe'
  • Gregg Thurman on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/8-6/12/26) - '” Conversely, if the token market approaches saturation, the low cost supplier crushes the others.” In my view, as the token market nears saturation, the cost of tokens will decline, hurting all hyperscalers. Then there will be “AI” users using data center LLMs, that will look at their token expense and decide that an on-device “AI” is less expensive and more secure.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Ives and Kantrowitz on Apple's WWDC (video) - 'Thank you for that Robert. I do read a lot, but take much of what I read with a huge grain of salt. When the read seems to go into a lot of detail I start doubting its accuracy. That’s something I learned as a policeman, the more the detail, the bigger the lie. It’s in the details that lies are exposed. I believe I think in broader terms than what you are looking for. Granularity isn’t my strong suit What am I looking for? “AI” as it will be implemented by Apple. It doesn’t have to be a complete product today, but something Apple can build on. On-device hosted by the likes of Mac Mini, Mac Studio or a big brother to both. I believe “AI” is still in its infancy. Two, three years from now, that’s a different story. But two, three years from now, should Apple’s on-device stratagem be correct, there will only be three or four players left standing: Apple’s on-device, and maybe two others. I see them as Gemini (because of Google’s relationship with Apple) and one other. I do not see META in the future. Zuckerberg has difficulty staying focused, he shoots first, and asks questions later. Microsoft is counting on its dominance in the enterprise. But data center “AI” is going to be a security nightmare. Oracle will be the first to drop out. It truly is late to the game, and doesn’t have the finance resources to weather a competitive storm That leaves Anthropic that may survive as a more Agentic model, well suited for Apple’s on-device strategy. All of the current “AI” offerings will ultimately become dependent on Apple’s on-device strategy and Apple’s hardware. Nvidia just recognized this, which is the motive behind its GeForce RTX GPU. Nvidia can have the gamer market, what’s left of it after Apple has taken its M Series cut.'
  • Bill Fouche on Pivotal moment: Mark Gurman paints Apple AI as a power struggle - 'AVP “viewed internally as a technical achievement despite being a sales flop …” “Internally”? I don’t recall a single reviewer of AVP that wasn’t absolutely gobsmacked by the “technical achievement.”'
  • Fred Stein on Pivotal moment: Mark Gurman paints Apple AI as a power struggle - 'But not weird compared to the rest of Gurman’s posts. The funniest bit is from the headline; “finally take AI seriously”. Despite all the twists and turns, Apple always took AI seriously. Look no further than the first M-series chip. Errol Brandt breaks it down for y’all.'
  • David Emery on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'Can someone accept the responsibility as scribe/secretary, and provide a summary to those of us who can’t make it? Thanks in advance!'
  • Fred Stein on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/8-6/12/26) - 'Yes, me too thinking about the $85B equity round. It’s 2%, not very dilutive. Next up, fun stuff tokenomics. Love to hear other thoughts. If Google’s cost per token beats the competition, (cost not price), then they’re smart to stomp on the accelerator. If Google’s Gemini gets tons of biz from Apple’s glorious ecosystem, then whoopee. Conversely, if the token market approaches saturation, the low cost supplier crushes the others.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Pivotal moment: Mark Gurman paints Apple AI as a power struggle - '” I bet it sounds weird to the people who were in the room.” To everybody except Gurman it would sound weird.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Ives and Kantrowitz on Apple's WWDC (video) - 'Gregg: I asked for an update out of respect for you. Over the past few weeks there have been several new WWDC-related announcements as well news about AI functionality being built into the company’s operating systems. A few of these announcements have me revisiting some of my investment timelines. I know you monitor the news and will be doing so into and through tomorrow’s keynote and the announcements from WWDC throughout this week.'
  • Stephen Gordon on Pivotal moment: Mark Gurman paints Apple AI as a power struggle - 'Joanna Stern provided a recap of Siri announcements over the years. In retrospect, the achievements are laughable. youtube.com/shorts/Y8NUvWzIiw4?si=b4LcK7Z9si3s5eC5'
  • Jonny T on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'Looking forward to seeing some pics of the evening! Hope one of you lot is good with an iPhone camera. Have fun. I’d love to come but disengaging from my boat in the Med would be hard to do.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Ives and Kantrowitz on Apple's WWDC (video) - 'John: When most people think of Apple and AI, the feedback tends to be about Siri. There are plenty of AI implementations many of us use everyday. from a variety of providers, including Apple and in the ways you mentioned. In my view, it’s Siri we use the most and it’s in Siri’s responses we, as both consumers and shareholders, want to see conspicuous improvement. For example, driving in my car this morning I asked Siri for the “greatest hits” of a prominent and popular music artist from the 1980’s that’s been in the news lately. Asking for “greatest hits” and Siri responded with one track. Having been to this rodeo so-to-speak at least once before, (by the way, the artist has a greatest hits album in release so I wasn’t asking for Siri to build its own list), I asked for the same artist’s “essentials” and Siri responded with a tune-stack. I’ve had to interchange those two words at different times to get the results desired. I gets really maddening to work with Siri today.'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'BOLO for Ponch & Jon!'
  • Joseph Bland on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'Hi, David. Unfortunately, the light bulb went off too late to consider this time frame. Maybe next year, although rooms and restaurants could be tougher to set up then….'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'If this happens next year, maybe my wife & I can return. My wife & I visited Boston & friends in Dunstable last month.'
  • Joseph Bland on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'BTW, the name of the hotel will be staying at is the Graduate, a Hilton hotel, in Palo Alto.'