David Emery on Apple at $343.67: Flying above $5 trillion, again - 'PED jinxed it down 🙁 🙁'
on Apple at $343.67: Flying above $5 trillion, again - 'Countless generations of protectionist policies have bred risk taking out of the European culture.'
on Apple at $343.67: Flying above $5 trillion, again - 'Apple Buyback History so far “The company has returned over $1 trillion total to shareholders, cutting its share count by over a third.” “Total Repurchases: Apple has repurchased well over $850 billion of its common stock since the modern buyback program scaled up” So a quick search about Apple’s stock Buyback history shows they have cut their share count by about 1/3 since they started at a cost of 850 Billion. Share holder return is bigger as the dividend paid is a separate line item. It would be interesting to see if the stock would be approaching 5 Trillion in value if they had done something differently with the buyback. Would they have hit that value sooner or later. And does it really matter to the shareholders how well they handled it. Personally I think it does matter but could see other ways which I would be happy as well. For instance if they had changed the buyback ratio to Dividend payout a bit I would have a very good payout every year just from the dividend alone. Yes taxable. But if I sell small amounts of my holdings that is also taxable since my cost basis is very low. For the company it is a good problem to have that much profit but the market’s valuing of sums that large are not always guaranteed to be reflected in the stock price. And all the ratios we use like P/E would be screwed up which can cause confusion. And given the stocks dollar per share price getting close to where it has historically split in the past will we see a two or three to one split sometime in the near future bringing the share count increase to 29 Billion or 43 Billion shares available? That seems like a lot of shares to be available even at the lower price per share that would entail.'
on Apple at $343.67: Flying above $5 trillion, again - 'The number $5 trillion goosed my imagination. So I searched around for interesting comparisons. Apple’s enterprise value as measured by its stock market capitalization is now greater than the annual GDP of every EU country except Germany. And when Apple reaches $5.5 trillion it will surpass Germany. I do realize that GDP is an annual flow and not the true value of the German economy. You could argue that a better comparison would be to Apple’s annual gross revenue. But still …. It’s easy to understand why certain governments seem to be trying to “take Apple down.” They’ve got nothing like it in their own countries. They seem to tremble under the not unreasonable fear that big U.S. companies like Apple will swamp theirs eventually. It’s too bad they have yet to realize that the only good solution to this is on the supply side. They need to incentivize and seed competing homegrown companies. But for reasons I can’t say I understand, it seems there is little appetite for high-risk, high-reward strategies across the pond.'
on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings - 'Joseph, “Apple booked the tax payment as a one-time charge of approximately $10 billion during its fourth fiscal quarter of 2024, which ended on September 28, 2024.” That compare already happened for end of fiscal 2025.'
on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings - '“ Apple is far from alone in “hiding behind” its true split-adjusted share value.” The only company I am aware of that doesn’t is Berkshire Hathaway, whose shares are about $760,000 per share. I once was gonna buy a few thousand dollars worth, but you’re right, psychologically. I did not feel like I was getting much (a small fraction of one share)'
on Apple at $343.67: Flying above $5 trillion, again - 'I’ve sold some non-Apple stock over the last 6 months to give myself a good amount of cash to deal with any coming turbulence. In Apple or in the economy. It is my seatbelt. And I think Apple’s large pile of cash (quick check has almost $150 billion with $60 billion net of debt) may be a similar hedge. While the hyperscalers et al. gorge on debt, Apple’s cash will help it weather any rough patches in ways none of the other top companies can. And allow it otherwise make some judicious purchases if (when) the AI bubble bursts. Just like J. Paul Getty after the 1929 crash.'
on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings - 'There you go being logical again, Rodney! I totally agree! That said, AAPL has split 1:224 X since the stock first issued, so a single pre-split share at today’s $340/share would be worth $76,160. It’s not hard to understand why many folks would never consider buying a share of anything at that price, and Apple is far from alone in “hiding behind” its true split-adjusted share value. It’s a purely psychological difference, true. But that’s what makes most of us humans tick.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Meta and Microsoft will report after the market’s close today and both enterprises have share prices under pressure. Meta is off 16.24% over the past year and Microsoft is down 23% over the same period. Apple, of course, reports tomorrow. One outcome of the recent results for the banking sector is while earnings rose, post earnings multiples have contracted. I’m interested in how the market will value Apple after tomorrow’s earnings report.'
on Apple at $343.67: Flying above $5 trillion, again - 'Yeah, but you miss the feeling of free fall when you hit an air pocket! 🙂'
on Apple at $343.67: Flying above $5 trillion, again - 'Given the likely turbulence that will come in the wake of their earnings announcements, given what’s happening to chip and hyperscaler stocks and the backdrop of geopolitics and international trade, I’d say a seatbelt is advisable for the next couple of quarters.'
on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings - 'This quarter’s numbers for the Indies and pros are pretty close. From memory, this seems to have been a trend for the past couple of years. Is it the Indies coming down with their predictions, pros coming up or a little bit of both? I think it is the latter.'
