Fred Stein on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'Genuine stupidity trumps artificial intelligence. Jensen is not stupid. Quoting “9 to 5”, he was “thinking with his Johnson.”'
on Apple price target roundup - 'Raj, I agree with your assessment of Mr. Woodring lately as it applies to Apple. It is indeed a strange period for analysts to judge Apple’s performance. They have to worry a lot about the impacts of margins, changes in product release cycles and AI on devices. Hard to figure out what to measure and then say Apple is winning or staying in place. I feel Eric has been growing more cautious about Apple so maybe he is just maturing and this his nature.'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'The gap is now about $1 trillion. I do have one objection. The market cap is not more difficult to increase because of the loss of shares. By definition, the market cap is the value of the company (actually EV is, but let’s ignore debt and FCF for a moment.) It should therefore be the same no matter how many shares are outstanding. They *must* grow in value to compensate for there being fewer. That’s why it’s a return of capital to shareholders. (Of course, if the market fails to react to the reduction, that’s on the market not on the shares.)'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'A friend sent a screenshot from LinkedIn: “Rich, add interesting content to your feed. Here are a few recommendations to get started”, and the person they suggested he follow was…. Jensen Huang. I responded, “Follow me to the Chinese honeypot.”'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'If anyone is interested in deep diving the Huang situation, John Gruber’s blog has several consecutive pieces that hammer him pretty hard.'
on Apple price target roundup - 'I’ve been disappointed with Eric Woodring of Morgan Stanley lately. Although his analysis is good, he’s been too conservative and restrictive with his price target which I think is at 350 right now. Think about it, he believes Apple will go to—or stay at— 350 in the next 12 months! Even with their unimpressive/lame/weak/bleak/… (according to WS) guidance for Q1, Apple is poised to charge ahead as soon as this memory crunch improves. Compared to him, Wamsi Mohan of BofA has a slightly better PT of 370, which I think he will soon raise.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Since Michael Goldfeder mentioned in the previous thread that my wishes can move AAPL :-), here I go again… I wish for new intraday highs with a close above 355 today.'
on Apple closes at $350.69, a new record - 'Wow, Michael – I feel flattered knowing “I was the one” who made AAPL close above 350 yesterday. LOL, but I’ll take it! I know you asked me to ‘be bold’ with my wishes but for today, I’ll wish for something doable. I wish for new intraday highs with a close above 355. If this works, again, then I will get bold for my third wish 😉'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q4 2026 - 'Belated Congrats to Troy Thoman for his 1st in EPS & Revenue and 3rd in The Rest. Special mention also to Jeff Galanti for his 2nd & 2nd with three very close estimates for iPhone Mac & iPads. It will be an interesting exercise come January to estimate what should be another record for Q1 FY2027, especially with the Duo wildcard in play.'
on Evercore believes in Siri AI - 'Siri AI monetization Working back through the numbers presented above: iPhone install base: ~1.4Billion, probably closer to 1.45B at least, with some estimates as high as 1.5B to 1.6B. AI capable iPhones: 60% * iPhone Duo * iPhone 18 Pro Max * iPhone 18 Pro * iPhone 17 Pro Max * iPhone 17 Pro * iPhone Air * iPhone 17 * iPhone 17e * iPhone 16 Pro Max * iPhone 16 Pro * iPhone 16 Plus * iPhone 16 * iPhone 16e * iPhone 15 Pro Max * iPhone 15 Pro Basically last 3.5 generations, adding the iPhone 18, 18e, and Air2 within 4-5 months. Evercore conservatively estimates 550-560M “compatible users” globally who could use AI Potential Monetized AI revenues ~$21B of annualized subscription revs at ~125M paying accounts/$14 per month: 125/550 = 0.227 or 23% of compatible users. Annual subscription fees of $168 for on device advanced AI. Call it $14.99 and you get nearly $180/year ~$45B of transaction revs at ~125M monthly transacting users, $600/month of eligible spend + a hypothetical 5% take rate. Not sure how many consumer users would want to spend $600/month or $7200/year for AI services. Evercore estimates that it’s just 5% or 6.25M of the 125M, and that is just 1.13% of the compatible 550M. If Apple bundles into some tiers of the Apple One subscriptions, could offer it a little less expensive but benefit from larger numbers of Apple One subscriptions. Of course, this would ramp up over time, possibly years, and has to fight off competing AI agents. The key is Siri AI will be available on all capable iPhones and can be demo’ed or used at any time.'
on Apple closes at $350.69, a new record - '@Joseph: Thank you for the compliment, but in reality it’s just a combination of pure luck while letting others set the table for me to offer my $.02. Remember, I was a long time lurker before I was allowed to become a subscriber as a neophyte investor in Apple. We have such a great group of investors on PED’s Apple 3.0 site who all bring their varied and exceptionally unique set of skills, knowledge, and now Raj’s incredible gift that benefits all of us. I don’t where or how Raj was able to become bestowed with his treasure trove of wishes, but I hope he keeps those two last two intact similar to the old fire alarms that mandated: “Break in case of emergency only.” My personal choice is that Raj saves them until after Apple announces another split. But after today one thing is for certain: Kalshi has nothing on Raj with his pin point accuracy.'
on Apple closes at $350.69, a new record - 'Michael, your ability to clearly discern these things and then explain them to those of us with lesser insight constantly amazes me! I hang on your every word….'
on Evercore believes in Siri AI - 'First, Steven, thanks for the clarification on your “Let’s go, Craig!” comment. Whew! Moving on…. On your other comment, like you, not my intention. See, I don’t agree that, on this Apple subject, anything’s broken, and you folks are trying to sell us that something is. IMO, there’s nothing to fix. And even if I were alone on this particular subject, I’m pretty darned convinced I’m right.'
on Daniel Ives is betting that Jensen Huang keeps his job - 'Hopefully too full to think about Apple. 🙂'
on Evercore believes in Siri AI - '“I don’t think the “early days” concept gives Apple a pass.” I agree. They had the time, but did not get it right the 1st time around. I’m not giving them a pass for that; but I’m also going to move on. They messed up that time, but that time is gone and now they are early in round 2. No pass, just moving on. They are in the ‘early days’ of round 2, and I don’t want them messing round 2 up trying to make up lost time. I agree it needs to be a higher priority than it was in the past, and they need to put much more effort into round 2; but please don’t cut corners resulting in poorer quality. Take the time it needs to be a 1st class product. High priority, more effort, but no cutting corners.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - '“Sky of blue and sea of green” — The Beatles, Yellow Submarine (1966). The biggest band of their day and one of the biggest companies of ours. Both called Apple, both extraordinary successes, and both once locked in a decades-long legal battle over the name. Rather a nice coincidence, really.'
on Evercore believes in Siri AI - 'Hi Joseph, I forgot about the Brandon reference, but trust me when I say that it was not the tone I was aiming for, unless it was Meta.'
on Apple closes at $350.69, a new record - 'I’m attributing today’s record close above $350 to Raj. He has the JuJu or great karma going and I for one am duly impressed. Thank you very much! Moreover, Raj still has two (2) more wishes to be granted so my hunch is he will be using those for substantially much higher closing numbers. All the best from a fellow Long Term Apple Farmer/Holder!'
on Daniel Ives is betting that Jensen Huang keeps his job - 'On the other hand, from a Bloomberg story a year ago: Nvidia, which conducts regular spot-checks of data centers around the world, told Bloomberg that it went to Megaspeed’s facilities multiple times to verify that there’s nothing untoward. “Our visits confirmed that the GPUs shipped to Megaspeed by our partners are where they are supposed to be,” an Nvidia spokesperson said in mid-November. John Gruber’s observation: It turns out these inspections were rather intimately thorough, conducted firsthand by Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang. Nothing untoward indeed. (From a post on Daringfireball….) That could well put Huang at risk for prosecution for evading sanctions.'
on Daniel Ives is betting that Jensen Huang keeps his job - 'NVIDIA Spokesman Rizzo said [Thursday] the Nvidia CEO’s interactions with [alleged Chinese spy Alice] Huang were consistent with meetings he has had with any of Nvidia’s customers. So does NVIDIA screw all of its customers?'
on Evercore believes in Siri AI - 'Apple just released details on AI pricing, if users of some of the Apple creative software exceed the free AI use allocation. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-makes-major-ai-pricing-185711619.html “The iPhone maker has added AI capabilities across several creative and productivity applications, including Keynote, Pages, Numbers, Pixelmator Pro, Freeform and Logic Pro. These features cover image and shape generation, presentation creation, image enhancement and AI-powered assistance for music production. However, access now comes with monthly usage allowances. Under the entry-level allocation, subscribers can generate 50 images, 250 shapes and 50 presentations, alongside presenter notes covering 700 slides. Customers who exceed those limits can purchase additional intelligence usage packs for $49.99. Apple confirmed the feature is available to active Creator Studio subscribers across eight countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany and India.”'
on Evercore believes in Siri AI - 'If you don’t like this country you can leave? I’d prefer trying to fix it.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Speaking of Max Pain, really fascinating (monthly) chart starting last Monday through today. Looks like consensus only took a week to move from deeply negative to Apple had good earnings and acceptable guidance. Yet again, Max Pain is more of an AAPL anchor than an Apple dirigible….'
on Daniel Ives is betting that Jensen Huang keeps his job - 'The situation keeps getting dicier as new details emerge, and congress will have its hands full.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - '“Prices often gravitate toward Max Pain levels because market makers…” Is there a difference between “market makers” and “options houses”. “Market makers are financial firms, banks, or specialized trading companies that continuously quote both a buy (bid) and sell (ask) price for a financial asset, ensuring that buyers and sellers can trade immediately without waiting for a matching counterparty.” – Investopedia “In finance, stock options houses typically refer to the clearing houses and central counterparties that guarantee, settle, and clear stock options contracts traded on financial exchanges.“ – Robinhood Max Pain comes about because options houses have to “balance their books” on Fridays by buying or selling a stock, and want the balance to happen at Max Pain. Hmm. Now that I read this over, it looks like they’re actually the same….'
on Evercore believes in Siri AI - 'Just to illustrate what triggered my initial WTF moment if I enter the following on the Mac “What did I buy from SupplyHouse” I get this response: “You have made a few purchases from SupplyHouse, including Condair humidifier cylinders and Hunter irrigation controllers. Here are the details of your past orders…” and then it lists three orders from January, May, and June 2025. On the iPhone the response is “I couldn’t find any records of purchases from SupplyHouse in your emails, messages, or wallet transaction.” It’s not as if my purchases were ancient history. That’s when I started looking into it and realized that Siri is siloed.'
on Evercore believes in Siri AI - 'Just to illustrate the initial WTF moment I had, “What did I buy from SupplyHouse” on the Mac yields the following response: “You have made a few purchases from SupplyHouse, including Condair humidifier cylinders and Hunter irrigation controllers. Here are the details of your past orders…” and then it lists three orders from January, May, and June 2025. On my iPhone the response is “I couldn’t find any records of purchases from SupplyHouse in your emails, messages, or wallet transaction.” It’s not as if my purchases were ancient history.'


