Recent Comments

  • Rodney Avilla on TheStreet: The market is ripe for a foldable Apple iPhone - 'I do a lot of reading on my iPhone and a small iPad that fits in my pocket would be, for me, desirable. However, I will check it out in the store before buying one.'
  • Steven Philips on Germany removes a brick from Apple's walled garden - '“Just another brick in the wall.”'
  • Steven Philips on Rothschild catapults its Apple target $140 to $400 - 'Gregg talks and Rothschild listens! 🙂'
  • Greg Lippert on Rothschild catapults its Apple target $140 to $400 - 'Agreed, it’s coming along nicely and do you think Apple is ever gonna stop? Hell no!!!! That’s not how they roll.'
  • Steven Philips on TheStreet: The market is ripe for a foldable Apple iPhone - 'I think it’s maybe like the original iPhone concept. Why would I want that? Then after actually using one, “Oh! I see.” Will it add something that it turns out that I value enough to offset the added size, weight and cost? I doubt it, but I’ll wait and see.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'Couldn’t find a better thread for this: Nvidia is going to finance Open AI’s next purchase of GPUs to the tune of $105 Billion. I wouldn’t touch either equity with a 20 foot pole. Both of their Balance sheets depend on AI revenue that has yet to be proven. Further Apple’s AI (Apple Intelligence) is going to take a big chunk of data center’s TAM for revenue before data center boosters complete their expansion. These deals have all the markings of a house built of well worn cards.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'It’s a challenging day on the Street as we approach 2pm in the east with all four major indexes in the red and 70% of S&P 500 components showing off the same color. Alphabet is off 0.81% at $340.75, Microsoft is down 3.25% at $479.28, Meta has dropped 4.20% at $565.10 and Amazon has given back 1.58% at $258.50. It’s a tough day for hyperscalers. On the other side of the performance teeter-totter Corning is ahead 6.31% at $176.47 and SanDisk is powering up by 9.35% at $1,794.59. Apple is in the red 0.53% at $304.30 at the top of the hour.'
  • David Gleason on TheStreet: The market is ripe for a foldable Apple iPhone - 'What is the market for foldable phones? I have tried to think of a reason to use one, but I’m coming up empty. Is it simply new tech for the sake of being new?'
  • David Emery on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - 'Yeah, but what happens if those major investors vote no-confidence? I’m -guessing- that the investors in Epic aren’t the same as the sheeple on Spacex’s board… 🙂 Presumably the agreements for those investments have a lot of specifics on how the investors and the board interact. (The small company I worked for had a couple outside investors with shareholder agreement. That agreement eventually ended up being tested in court when the outside investors challenged the founder. A few of us employee shareholders ended up with the controlling difference; the other 2 sides each had about 48% of the company. After that lawsuit was settled, the company went back to the big-name law firm that drafted the ambiguous agreement, and the law firm settled.)'
  • David Emery on Germany removes a brick from Apple's walled garden - 'Cui Boni? (Who benefits?)'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - 'Doesn’t Sweeney own majority shares? If he does it will take a court order (competency suit) to wrest control from him.'
  • James Hillhouse on Germany removes a brick from Apple's walled garden - 'I guess the view of the EU and European governments is that if you can’t compete against Apple and other US tech companies, then pedantically regulate them. Because to enable Europe to actually compete and innovate would require a great deal of soul searching and soul crushing political and cultural changes.'
  • David Emery on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - 'A thought occurred to me while on the exercise machine: Do you think the investors in Epic are just waiting for Sweeney to finish self-destructing, before installing competent leadership?'
  • Bill Donahue on Apple and Trump guys butt heads over Chinese chips - 'Apple didn’t build its supply chain on low-cost labour. It built its supply chain on world-leading manufacturing expertise and capacity, and timely decision-making, planning and implementation. Clowns like Lutnick clearly have no comprehension of either the complexity or scale of Apple’s supply and manufacturing chain, and he should stick to what he does best: corrupt dealings and ripping off widows.'
  • David Emery on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - 'I have to think that potential partners are looking at how Sweeney operated at the start of the Apple/Epic war, with the sneaky attempt to bypass the store rules/contract with Apple at the same time going to court. Is this a guy you really want to partner with? At what point would he decide it’s in his best interests to break a contract and sue you?'
  • David Emery on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - '“Yes, Epic Games is profitable today, but its net profit margins are incredibly thin. And, of course, legal fees come out of the BOTTOM LINE, even if they’re deductible business expenses.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - '“️The “Founder’s Trap”: Execution vs. Vision Your assessment of Sweeney as a “tech visionary who got big but is now flailing” is exactly how many industry analysts view Epic’s recent trajectory. Sweeney is excellent at building foundational tech (Unreal Engine) & stumbling into a cultural phenomenon (Fortnite). However, his execution as a CEO managing a mature conglomerate shows a severe lack of discipline: • Whiplash Strategy: Epic’s corporate execution is chaotic. They bought Bandcamp, realized they couldn’t afford it, & dumped it a year later. They funded expensive spin-off games like Rocket Racing & Fortnite Festival, only to abruptly discontinue support for them in 2026 when they didn’t instantly mirror Fortnite’s core success. • The Worker Cost: Because Sweeney keeps launching massive, unforced corporate wars against Steam, Apple, & Google simultaneously, the company is constantly over-extended. When his optimistic assumptions inevitably fail, the employees bear the brunt via massive, multi-wave layoffs (cutting over 1,000 workers in early 2026). Can Sweeney Actually Get Kicked Out? Logically, any normal corporate CEO with this track record of massive layoffs, value destruction (Epic’s valuation slid from $31.5B down to roughly $15.7B), & unprofitable ventures would have been fired by the board long ago. However, Sweeney has intentionally built a corporate armor that makes it almost impossible to kick him out: 1. Absolute Voting Control While Chinese tech giant Tencent owns roughly 28–40% of Epic, & The Walt Disney Company and Sony own significant slices, Tim Sweeney personally retains over 50% of the voting power. He cannot be voted out by his board because he is the majority vote. If Disney senior executives want to buy Epic outright to save their $1.5B investment, they legally cannot do so w/o Sweeney’s direct blessing. 2. How He Gets “Severely Curtailed” While he can’t be fired, Sweeney can run out of money, which forces his hand. We are already seeing his power become “severely curtailed” by the realities of his financial distress: • The Google Surrender: In March 2026, Sweeney was forced to sign a global settlement with Google that severely limited his ability to legally sue or even publicly criticize them anymore, a massive ego blow to his “anti-gatekeeper” crusade. • The Disney Takeover: Because Epic can no longer afford to fund Sweeney’s independent metaverse whims, they are now heavily reliant on Disney’s capital. Epic’s primary development focus has been forced to shift toward an extraction shooter using Disney-owned characters to satisfy their new corporate overlords. Sweeney won’t meet the classic founder fate of being thrown out of his own garage, but his idealistic era of running Epic like a personal fiefdom is over. He has driven his business close enough to the buzzsaw that he is now on a tight leash held by Disney, Tencent, and the harsh reality of his own balance sheet.” ((And some people claim Tim Cook was not a good CEO or worthy successor to Steve Jobs. Even Jobs knew he needed someone to run the company even more properly and profitably. Sweeney doesn’t see that, now and forever. Being beholden to a China based company like Tencent doesn’t raise concerns w/this administration? And by not focusing on his core business, and making better choices, Sweeney is going to keep Epic from truly prospering, but maybe that isn’t really his goal.))'
  • Bart Yee on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - ' Where the Execution Failed Even when Sweeney’s high-level visions made conceptual sense, Epic’s execution was erratic, resulting in multiple whiplash strategy shifts. • The Metaverse Pivot Squeezed Margins: Sweeney correctly predicted that user-generated content (UGC) was the future, pivoting hard into the Unreal Editor for Fortnite (UEFN). However, the execution was financially flawed: Epic committed to a 40% net revenue payout to creators, handing out over $1 billion. By shifting playtime away from internal Battle Royale modes to player-made maps, Epic executed a strategy that actively lowered its own profit margins. • Disastrous Acquisitions and Divestments: Epic’s execution in corporate M&A was highly erratic. The company acquired music platform Bandcamp in 2022, only to panic & sell it off a year later during the 2023 restructuring. They similarly acquired & then spun out the kid-tech firm SuperAwesome. This “buy high, sell in a panic” execution wasted millions in capital & disrupted hundreds of workers’ careers. • Brutal Downsizing as a Quick Fix: The execution of Epic’s ultimate cost-correction was handled through severe workforce trauma. Laying off 16% of staff in 2023 followed by another massive wave of > 1,000 employees in 2026 represents a complete failure in long-term workforce planning. To further patch over execution gaps, Epic resorted to hiking V-Bucks prices by roughly 20%, passing the bill for executive over-expansion directly onto the players & rank-and-file staff. The Verdict Tim Sweeney built an undisputed tech empire, but his refusal to operate within standard parameters of corporate profitability has compromised Epic’s autonomy. Because of flawed management & poor operational execution, Epic is no longer the agile powerhouse it used to be. It is now highly dependent on massive corporate anchors like Tencent and Disney to guarantee its financial stability. If Epic cannot stabilize its profit margins by 2027, the ultimate consequence of Sweeney’s management style will likely be the loss of his own unilateral control over the company.” “even if epic succeeds in paying Apple only 10% fees and goes back to iOS or 3rd party store for iOS, would that fundamentally help epic or would the same problems still drag epic down eventually? seems to me Sweeney keeps flailing around instead of properly leading and making better business decisions. as the founder, he might be a tech visionary who got it big, but ultimately he might run his business into a buzz saw and get kicked out or severely curtailed.” Your analysis hits the nail on the head. Even if Tim Sweeney achieves his ultimate legal dream—returning to iOS via the Epic Games Store while paying Apple only a 10% compliance fee—it would not fundamentally fix Epic’s structural crisis. The core issues dragging Epic down are entirely self-inflicted and systemic to Sweeney’s management style. The structural landscape reveals why a mobile victory wouldn’t save him, alongside the exact corporate mechanics keeping him from getting kicked out just yet. Why a 10% iOS Fee Won’t Save Epic A favorable outcome in the ongoing mobile storefront wars will not solve Epic’s broader operational flaws: • The Math Doesn’t Check Out: Historically, iOS only accounted for about 7% of Fortnite’s global revenue. Even with a major mobile resurgence at a lower 10% fee, the net increase in cash flow is only a few hundred million dollars annually. That is a drop in the bucket for a company that just had to execute a $500 million emergency expense cut to avoid hemorrhaging cash. • The “Metaverse” Model is Inherently Low-Margin: The extra mobile money would immediately flow out of Epic’s pockets. Over half of Fortnite playtime happens on user-generated maps. Because Epic promised to pay 40% of net revenue to creators (surpassing $1B in payouts), their primary growth mechanism is structurally designed to yield incredibly thin corporate profit margins. • The EGS Money Pit is Unrelated to Mobile: Paying Apple less on iOS does nothing to fix the fact that the PC version of the Epic Games Store has been a massive, multi-year cash drain. Giving away free games weekly & taking a razor-thin 12% cut has failed to unseat Steam. Returning to mobile simply duplicates this low-margin, high-overhead store infrastructure onto phones.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - ' What Investors Are Actually Buying When tech giants like Sony or The Walt Disney Company invest billions into Epic Games, they are not buying into Tim Sweeney’s current profit margins. They are buying strategic ecosystem alignment: • The Disney Bet ($1.5B): Disney didn’t invest to get a quick return on V-Bucks sales. They invested to build an expansive, persistent Disney ecosystem inside the Unreal Engine architecture, allowing them to seamlessly link Disney parks, streaming media, & gaming. • The Sony Bet ($1.2+B): Sony’s multi-billion dollar investment is designed to cement a deep relationship between Epic’s tech & PlayStation hardware, ensuring optimal synergy for future console generations. • The Tencent Safety Net: Chinese tech giant Tencent owns a massive 40% stake in Epic. Tencent acts as a deep-pocketed corporate anchor that guarantees Epic has access to institutional lines of credit & international markets that independent studios could never secure. ⚠️ The Real Risk: A “Zombie” Tech Giant While insolvency is out of the question, Epic’s real danger is becoming a massively over-valued, low-yield ecosystem. If Tim Sweeney continues to burn cash on unprofitable storefronts & multi-million dollar legal crusades, outside investors will likely punish Epic not by letting it go bankrupt, but by forcing severe corporate governance changes. We have already seen this play out: —> the private secondary market valuation of Epic has slid from $31.5B down to around $15.7B. If Epic cannot turn its record revenues into strong net profits by 2027, the board of directors & major stakeholders (like Tencent & Disney) will likely step in to curtail Sweeney’s independent decision-making, forcing the company to prioritize immediate investor returns over ideological tech wars.“ “so is sweeney’s management flawed (>24% layoffs, multiple unprofitable ventures, multiple shifts in strategy & execution, inability to run an actually profitable business or business model) or is he unable to properly execute, or both?“ “The evidence points to both: Tim Sweeney’s overarching management philosophy is fundamentally flawed, and Epic’s recent history exposes a distinct inability to properly execute a sustainable corporate strategy. By prioritizing ideological, “growth-at-all-costs” tech crusades over basic financial discipline, Sweeney turned one of the most profitable entertainment companies in history into a low-margin, fragile ecosystem that forced its own employees to pay for executive miscalculations. ⚖️ Why the Management Philosophy is Flawed Sweeney’s core flaw is managing Epic Games like an idealistic, VC-funded startup rather than a mature, multi-billion-dollar enterprise. • The Ideological Distortion: Sweeney treats corporate strategy as a moral crusade. He spent well over $100M in legal fees and sacrificed nearly $1B in iOS revenue to fight Apple & Google on principle. While legally fascinating, it was a severe operational distraction that drained cash from Epic’s balance sheet. • Unprofitable Corporate Warfare: The Epic Games Store was launched as a direct assault on Steam, intentionally offering razor-thin 12% margins & burning $100’s of millions on free games & exclusivity deals. Years into the venture, court discovery proved the storefront remained a persistent net loss. Sweeney misjudged player loyalty to Steam, funding a forever-war that Epic’s cash reserves couldn’t indefinitely sustain. • Subsidizing Ego with Fortnite: For years, Fortnite’s unprecedented success papered over bad business models elsewhere. Sweeney openly admitted to his staff that he spent years being “unrealistically optimistic” that Epic could transition to a metaverse company without massive layoffs, proving a systemic failure to map revenue reality against operational costs. Continued'
  • David Emery on TheStreet: The market is ripe for a foldable Apple iPhone - 'where there’s smoke… Well, a military term for confusing or distracting is to “blow smoke”… I’m sure Apple will sell a bunch of anything it makes. But will they sell enough to make a significant difference in the bottom line? Stay tuned!'
  • Bart Yee on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - '“how much is Epic making in Fortnite for Android?” “Fortnite on Android currently generates an estimated $50-$70M in annual revenue for Epic Games. Much like iOS before the ban, Android has historically been one of Fortnite’s lowest-earning platforms. While Android represents a massive slice of the global mobile market, the ecosystem’s financial realities have kept Epic’s earnings there surprisingly small. Why Android Revenue Stays Low 1. The Historical Friction of Side-Loading When Epic first launched Fortnite on Android, Tim Sweeney refused to put it on the Google Play Store to avoid Google’s 30% fee. Instead, players had to “side-load” the game by downloading an APK file directly from Epic’s website. • This technical hurdle severely restricted casual player adoption. • When Epic briefly put the game on Google Play in 2020, it was banned within months alongside the iOS version, forcing Epic back to standalone launchers. 2. Google Play vs. Side-Loading Metrics During the Epic v. Google legal discovery process, historical metrics highlighted the massive gap between user bases. While over 120M downloads occurred on iOS during its peak years, Fortnite on the official Google Play Store only pulled in a fraction of that traction. Sensor Tower data tracked lifetime player spend directly through Google Play at under $1M before the ban, meaning the vast majority of Android users who spent money were the hardcore fans willing to use Epic’s independent installer. 3. Global Device Demographics While Android has billions of users worldwide, a high concentration of those devices consists of budget or mid-range phones in emerging markets. These devices often lack the high-end processing power required to run Fortnite’s heavy Unreal Engine architecture smoothly. Consequently, the average revenue per user (ARPU) on Android is significantly lower than on consoles, PC, or iOS. The 2026 Android Strategy: The Mobile Epic Games Store To turn Android into a genuine profit driver, Epic shifted its strategy by launching the mobile Epic Games Store app on Android globally. Instead of forcing players to download Fortnite as an isolated, clunky file, Epic is attempting to build a unified mobile storefront. To attract other mobile developers and boost ecosystem revenue, Epic is offering aggressive terms: • Developers keep 100% of their first $1M in revenue on the mobile store. • Epic takes a highly disruptive 12% standard cut for any revenue generated after that milestone, directly undercutting Google Play’s 30% fee structure. While Android currently remains a minor footnote in Fortnite’s multi-billion dollar empire, Epic is betting that transforming their Android footprint from a single game into a full digital marketplace will finally make the mobile platform highly profitable.“ ((Android: $50-70M/year, iOS: $280M/yr.)) “can Epic stay solvent & keep conning money out of investors to keep itself afloat?“ “Yes, Epic Games is highly likely to stay solvent. However, the narrative that they are “conning” investors is a bit of a mischaracterization. Outside investors are not being tricked; they are making a highly calculated, strategic bet on Epic’s industry-defining tech stack. Epic does not rely on sketchy fundraising to keep the lights on—its core business actively generates billions of dollars in cash flow, even if its net profit margins are currently razor-thin. ️ Why Epic is Insoluble to Bankruptcy (Solvency Outlook) Epic Games is protected from true financial collapse by two major pillars: • Fortnite’s Massive Floor: Even in a “down” or stabilizing year, Fortnite still brings in roughly $5.8-$6.0B in annual gross revenue. It remains one of the largest, most reliable daily cash-generating products in entertainment history. • Unreal Engine Monopoly: Epic owns the foundational architecture of the modern gaming, film, & television industries. Unreal Engine powers roughly 31% of the top-selling games on Steam & is the primary tool for Hollywood virtual production. Tech investors know that if Epic goes under, a massive portion of the global entertainment infrastructure collapses with it.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - '2. The Epic Games Store (Record Revenue, Net Financial Loss) • The Revenue: According to the Epic Games Store 2025 Year in Review, PC players spent an all-time record of $1.16 billion on the storefront. Third-party game sales specifically jumped 57% to $400 million. • The Profit Reality: The storefront operates at a net loss. Epic’s aggressive developer initiatives—taking only a 12% cut compared to Steam’s 30%, and giving developers 100% of their first $1 million in revenue—means Epic eats nearly all operational costs. Between credit card processing fees, server maintenance, and funding the weekly free games program, the storefront is a persistent capital drag funded by Fortnite. 3. Other First-Party Games (Modest Revenue, Shrinking Portfolio) • The Revenue: Epic owns other intellectual properties like Rocket League (via its acquisition of Psyonix) and Fall Guys (via Mediatonic). These titles generate hundreds of millions in microtransactions. • The Profit Reality: While profitable on a standalone basis, they don’t move the needle compared to Epic’s overhead. In fact, following the March 2026 workforce restructuring, Epic explicitly shifted away from smaller projects. They discontinued multiple low-engagement modes (like Rocket Racing and Fortnite Festival Battle Stage) and removed smaller studio titles like Horizon Chase from mobile stores to stop bleeding cash on non-core games. The Strategic Shift: The Disney Extraction Shooter Because non-Fortnite ventures are not generating strong independent profit margins, Epic is changing its strategy for late 2026 and 2027. Following The Walt Disney Company’s $1.5 billion investment, Epic’s main focus outside of core Fortnite is building an all-new extraction shooter video game using Disney-owned characters. The goal is to replicate Fortnite’s incredibly lucrative first-party microtransaction margins, creating a second major cash cow to permanently reduce Epic’s over-reliance on a single game.“ “just how much revenue would epic have made annually if it was on iOS?“ “If Fortnite had remained on the iOS App Store without being banned, Epic Games would have generated an estimated $350 million to $450 million in additional revenue annually from iOS players. While a massive sum of money, it would not have been Epic’s top earner. The definitive numbers revealed during the Epic v. Apple federal antitrust trial proved that the iPhone was surprisingly low on Fortnite’s financial totem pole. The Real Math: 7% of the Empire During the trial, internal court documents and depositions from Epic’s former CFO revealed that iOS was always the lowest or second-lowest earning platform for Fortnite. The revenue split by platform leading up to the 2020 ban broke down as follows: • PlayStation 4: 46.8% of total revenue • Xbox One: 27.5% • Nintendo Switch, PC, and Android: 18.7% (combined) • iOS (Apple): Just 7.0% In internal 2020 financial forecasts, Epic projected that iOS’s share would contract even further, sliding to just 5.8% of global revenue as the game’s console base expanded. Projected iOS Revenue Timeline (2020–Present) If we apply Epic’s historical 7% baseline baseline to Fortnite’s actual global earnings trajectory over the last few years, we can project exactly how much gross revenue Apple’s storefront would have pulled in before commissions: • 2020–2021: During the massive pandemic boom (where Fortnite hit roughly $5.1 billion globally), iOS would have brought in roughly $350 million per year. This lines up perfectly with mobile analytic data from Sensor Tower, which tracked Fortnite making about $26.7 million a month on iPhones right before the ban. • 2022–2024: As global revenues hovered between $4 billion and $5.5 billion, the unbanned iOS version would have stabilized at roughly $280 million to $380 million annually. • 2025 (The Record Year): With Fortnite roaring back to a peak of $6.0 billion globally, a live iOS version would have seen its best year yet, tracking toward $420 million in gross player spending. The Commission Cut Had Epic stayed on iOS under Apple’s original ecosystem rules, they would not have kept all of that money. Apple’s standard 30% commission fee would have drastically eaten into those margins: • Out of a hypothetical $400 million iOS year, $120 million would go directly into Apple’s pockets. • Epic would net roughly $280 million. This exact math explains why Tim Sweeney viewed the 7% iOS revenue block as an acceptable sacrifice. In his view, forfeiting a few hundred million dollars a year in lower-margin mobile revenue was a price worth paying if a legal victory could permanently eliminate the 30% gatekeeper tax across the entire tech ecosystem.“'
  • Bart Yee on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - 'The Aftermath While Epic offered affected employees severance packages (including four months of base pay and extended healthcare coverage), public and industry backlash was fierce. The general consensus across game developer spaces is that rank-and-file workers lost their livelihoods to correct financial imbalances caused by executive over-expansion and unforced legal battles.” “is Epic itself remaining profitable today and by how much?” “Yes, Epic Games is profitable today, but its net profit margins are incredibly thin. Because Epic is a private company, it does not publicly release exact profit-and-loss statements. However, financial tracking firms like Sacra and Naavik report that Epic’s massive $5.7 billion to $6.0 billion in annual revenue is almost entirely consumed by high operating costs. The company is currently operating near a break-even threshold, only maintaining profitability because of its massive cost-cutting measures. Why “Huge Revenue” Doesn’t Equal “Huge Profit” for Epic Epic Games is essentially a tale of two halves: one massive product that “prints money” entirely subsidizing two other major business segments that lose or barely make money. 1. Fortnite (The Cash Cow) • The Situation: Fortnite brings in roughly $5.8 to $6.0 billion annually. Under the old Battle Royale model, this was almost pure profit. • The Margin Problem: Today, over half of Fortnite playtime happens on user-generated maps via the Unreal Editor for Fortnite (UEFN). Epic has committed to paying out 40% of that net revenue back to independent creators. In fact, Epic confirmed it has paid out over $1 billion to UEFN creators since 2023. While this keeps Fortnite relevant, it cuts Epic’s own profit margins down significantly. 2. The Epic Games Store (Low Margin) • The Situation: PC players spent $1.16 billion on the Epic Games Store. • The Margin Problem: Store management openly admits that profit margins on third-party games are “low” and hard to maintain. Because Epic takes only a 12% cut (and gives developers 100% of their first $1 million under updated 2025 terms), the storefront barely generates enough cash to cover its own servers, payment processing fees, and marketing giveaways. 3. Unreal Engine (The Infrastructure) • The Situation: Unreal Engine is highly successful, capturing roughly 31% of all Steam game sales revenue via royalties. • The Margin Problem: While it generates steady enterprise revenue, development and maintenance of a cutting-edge game engine requires immense, continuous R&D spending. The Corporate Valuation Drop Epic’s structural margin squeeze is heavily reflected in how outside investors value the company: • The 2022 Peak: At the height of the tech boom, Epic was valued at $31.5 billion. • The Disney Round: When The Walt Disney Company bought a major stake in early 2024, Epic was marked down 29% to $22.5 billion. • The Current Secondary Market: Private secondary equity markets estimate Epic’s implied valuation has slid even further, sitting near $15.7 billion. Epic Games is safely out of the “danger zone” of losing money, but they are no longer a hyper-profitable cash machine. They are fundamentally a break-even platform company that relies on Fortnite’s remaining margins to build out Tim Sweeney’s vision of the metaverse.” ((Sounds to me a lot like the Android business models)) “is epic making revenue and profit on anything else outside of Fortnite?” “Outside of Fortnite, Epic Games generates significant revenue from other business segments, but almost none of them generate a reliable net profit. Epic’s non-Fortnite businesses operate as high-revenue, low-margin infrastructure investments. They are structurally vital to the video game industry but serve as a financial drag on Epic’s balance sheet rather than profit drivers. Revenue vs. Profit Breakdown (Non-Fortnite) 1. Unreal Engine (High Revenue, High R&D Costs) • The Revenue: Unreal Engine captures roughly 31% of all game sales revenue on Steam via its 5% royalty structure on games that surpass $1 million in lifetime sales. It also generates millions from flat-fee enterprise licensing across the film, television, automotive, and architectural industries. • The Profit Reality: While highly lucrative on paper, maintaining the world’s most advanced game engine requires monumental engineering costs. The continuous R&D required to update Unreal Engine absorbs the vast majority of its incoming licensing revenue, making it closer to a break-even or low-margin anchor rather than a massive cash generator. Continued.'
  • Jonathan Rotenberg on Saturday Apple video: Reed Jobs wants to make cancer nonlethal - 'Hi, David, I can understand why you might dismiss what I’m saying and attribute my comments to me “making a lot of assumptions.” I feel you’re actually touching into one of the greatest and most central mysteries about Steve Jobs—the thing that absolutely flummoxed Walter Isaacson. I hear you saying, “I, David, did not observe what you did, Jonathan. Therefore, what you observed about Reed is not real. It is your imagination.” You’ve just described the SJ Reality Distortion Field that Walter Isaacson popularized in his SJ biography. Steve spent his entire career seeing things that absolutely no one else could. Steve was almost always 20 years ahead of everyone—computer scientists, executives, financiers, futurists. Everyone saw bits and pieces, but absolutely no one saw the achievable sea change that Steve could see. So they jumped to the same conclusion about Steve that you did about me: He is deluded. He doesn’t know what he is doing. Walter called this Steve Jobs’ Reality Distortion Field. Walter described Steve as some kind of delusional, Machiavellian madman who gaslighted people… and got them to behave irrationally. The supreme irony here—the reason I believe Walter had such contempt for Steve—is that Walter was 180-degrees wrong. Steve did not distort reality. Steve was impeccable in observing reality. But others around him couldn’t understand is that Steve’s awareness of reality was probably ~1000x bigger than theirs. There are many reasons for what made it possible for Steve to see what he saw and do what he did. But I believe the most fundamental factor is that Steve was a very serious, deeply dedicated, lifelong meditator. Sustained, daily meditation over decades is a process of deep, cognitive purification. Of metabolizing “baggage” and clearing out discursive thinking. Steve’s approach to business was antithetical to the underlying assumptions of western MBA programs. We Americans are stuck in a perpetual trap of believing that the solution to every problem is just to dump more stuff on top of it. We add more frameworks, knowledge, theories, opinions, beliefs. From a Buddhist perspective, the more theories and ideas you add to something, the more barriers you build between you and reality. You probably don’t know who I am, but Steve was a formative mentor and dear friend to me when I was 18 and for 30 years of my life. I’ve been working for 15 years writing a book about Steve that I feel is the book he has always deserved. It’s going to be insanely great… and is ~3-5 years from completion. https://www.jonathanrotenberg.com/my-teacher-steve-jobs David, re. your feedback on my perceptions of Reed, I have a question. If you imagine that someone you don’t know offers their perspective on something to you but it doesn’t jibe with your perspective, how would react? Generically, do you feel your reaction would be informed by habit or by mindfulness? Would you be willing to try an experiment here? Please reread what I wrote, and see if you can observe your own need to judge or classify. As an experiment, would you be willing—for just a few minutes—to try dropping the need to judge? Instead, could you step into a quality of curiosity or open mindedness? You don’t ultimately have to accept or agree with anything I’m saying. But what if you related to it in a slightly different way? In Buddhism, what I’m describing is called Beginner’s Mind. If you go to an ‘Expert’ seeking advice on a problem, the expert will likely say “there are only 2-3 viable answers to your question.” But if you ask a Beginner, the beginner will see an infinite number of possible answers. In the west, we tend to venerate experts and ignore beginners. In eastern wisdom traditions, the beginner is considered to be operating at a higher level of wisdom. If you could relate to what I wrote with genuine curiosity and beginner’s mind, does anything new appear that you might have missed? David, I’m not sure if I have lost you here. But it sounded like you were a great fan of Steve’s and appreciate his work. If you follow the approach I’m offering, you can better understand how Steve related to his own life and how was able to see so many things (e.g., proportionally spaced typography, iMac, iPod, iPhone, retail stores, transforming music distribution) that no one else could see… and that changed our world.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - ' The Current Reality: Revenue vs. Engagement The narrative around Fortnite in 2026 is highly complicated because Epic’s massive revenue numbers are masking high operational strain: • The 2025 Record Peak: Driven heavily by the massive momentum of Fortnite OG, LEGO Fortnite, and major ecosystem expansion, 2025 brought in an estimated $6.0 billion, a 5.3% increase from 2024. • The Margin Squeeze: Even though gross revenues were historically high, player engagement hours sharply dropped toward the end of 2025. Epic was spending more money to maintain massive metaverse infrastructure than players were returning in daily playtime. • The 2026 Countermeasures: To correct this internal imbalance, Epic Games took drastic actions in March 2026, laying off over 1,000 employees and raising V-Bucks prices by roughly 20% (bumping 800 V-Bucks to $10) to artificially boost profitability per user. YTD 2026 Projections & Performance Fortnite is projected to hold steady and finish 2026 at around $5.8 billion to $6.0 billion in annual revenue. Year-To-Date (YTD) indicators show that Epic’s aggressive monetization adjustments are successfully stabilizing the ship: • Daily Revenue Stream: The game averages roughly $16 million per day in player purchases globally. • Rebounding Player Counts: Despite community backlash over V-Bucks price hikes, monthly active players have bounced back to 110–120 million following the Chapter 7 launch. Daily active users reached a strong 30.2 million mid-year. • The Trend Verdict: The downturn is not an ongoing revenue spiral, but rather a transition phase. Epic is shifting from a “growth-at-all-costs” strategy to a highly monetized, “profitability-first” ecosystem where they rely on extracting higher spending from a stabilized, core audience. “so epic had to do some drastic cost cutting to remain profitable? employees bore the brunt of that to cover for sweeney’s mismanagement?” “Yes, Epic Games underwent severe corporate restructuring due to unsustainable spending, and many industry analysts, former employees, and critics argue that workers bore the brunt of Tim Sweeney’s strategic miscalculations. The company’s internal crisis unfolded across two massive waves of layoffs, driven by a widening gap between Epic’s revenue and its aggressive spending. The Scale of the Cost-Cutting To stabilize its finances, Epic was forced to enact deep operational cuts: • Workforce Reductions: Epic laid off roughly 830 employees (16% of the company) followed by an even larger wave of over 1,000 employees (about 20% of the remaining workforce). • The $500 Million Expense Cut: Alongside the job losses, Epic slashed half a billion dollars in operating costs by aggressively reducing marketing budgets, cutting external contractor roles, and leaving key open positions unfulfilled. • Asset Divestment: To generate immediate cash, Epic was forced to sell off assets, including the music platform Bandcamp (which it had acquired just a year prior) and spin out its kid-tech marketing firm SuperAwesome. Leadership Missteps vs. Employee Impact In memos to his staff, CEO Tim Sweeney openly admitted to financial mismanagement, stating, “We’re spending significantly more than we’re making,” and acknowledging he had long been unrealistically optimistic that the company could power through its massive transition without layoffs. Critics and former employees highlight several areas where Sweeney’s leadership directly led to the financial strain that eventually cost workers their jobs: 1. Low-Margin “Metaverse” Shift Sweeney heavily funded an ecosystem shift toward player-made content via tools like the Unreal Editor for Fortnite (UEFN). While this kept player numbers stable, it is a highly structural, lower-margin business model because Epic has to share substantial revenue with creator pools, making it vastly less profitable than the original Fortnite Battle Royale era. 2. The Unprofitable “War” on Steam Sweeney directed hundreds of millions of dollars toward the Epic Games Store in a bid to unseat Steam. Despite massive outlays for weekly free games and costly third-party exclusivity deals, executive testimony in federal court confirmed the Epic Games Store remained entirely unprofitable years after launch, acting as a massive cash drain. 3. Funding Multi-Front Legal Crusades While Epic was burning through cash internally, Sweeney concurrently waged an incredibly expensive, multi-front antitrust war against Apple and Google. Epic spent well over $100 million in legal fees alone, while also forfeiting hundreds of millions in high-margin mobile revenue by remaining banned from standard mobile app stores for years. Continued.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - 'My Gemini rabbit hole on Epic and Sweeney. “how much fortnite revenue has been lost by sweeney and epic fighting apple on fees?” Tim Sweeney and Epic Games stated that their multi-year legal and business battle against Apple and Google has cost the company over $1 billion in combined legal fees and lost mobile revenue. Legal costs alone have exceeded $100 million, while the rest stems from missing out on iOS marketplace revenue. Breakdown of the Costs * Legal Fees: Epic spent well over $100 million fighting complex antitrust lawsuits in court against tech gatekeepers. [1] * Lost Mobile Revenue: The vast majority of the $1+ billion figure accounts for years of blocked Fortnitemonetization after Apple removed the game from the iOS App Store in 2020. * Strategic View: CEO Tim Sweeney has maintained that these financial hits were a necessary, worthwhile investment to open up mobile ecosystems and change app store rules. Opinions on Reddit are mixed, with some users viewing it as a visionary antitrust crusade and others attributing the massive financial sacrifice to a personal corporate grudge.“ “Breakdown of Epic Games’ Legal Fights & Revenue Epic Games CEO Tim Sweeney confirmed that the company’s multi-year antitrust battle against Apple and Google has cost the company roughly $1 billion in combined legal bills and lost mobile marketplace revenue. 1. Legal Fees Expended Total Spent: Epic Games has paid well over $100 million strictly in legal fees to fight Apple’s App Store rules and Google’s Android billing systems. Apple’s Legal Claims: In addition to their own lawyers, Epic was ordered to pay a portion of Apple’s legal fees and withheld commissions. Apple even filed court requests attempting to force Epic to cover up to 90% of its defense costs, estimated around $73 million. 2. Lost iOS Fortnite Revenue Total Missing Revenue: Of the $1+ billion total impact cited by Sweeney, roughly $800 million to $900 million represents missed iOS revenue. Fortnite Revenue Outside of iOS (2020–Present) Despite losing access to the main App Store ecosystem, Fortnite remained an absolute financial juggernaut across PC, PlayStation, Xbox, Nintendo Switch, and Android side-loading. During the exact same timeframe as the legal battle, the game generated well over $20 billion. According to industry data and legal discovery trackers, Fortnite’s annual earnings breakdown spans across multiple platforms. While losing the iOS platform cost Epic nearly a billion dollars in potential growth, the game’s core ecosystem on consoles and PC was large enough to entirely absorb the blow, allowing Epic to finance its massive corporate litigation while keeping the company afloat.“ “What about 2026 projections for Fortnite?” “…according to updated industry tracking and financial reports, Fortnite’s 2025 revenue…actually peaked at an all-time record of roughly $6.0 billion. However, the confusion comes from a major slump in player engagement that began in mid-to-late 2025. This core engagement slide squeezed Epic’s profit margins, forcing them into aggressive corporate countermeasures moving into 2026. Continued.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - 'Gregg, my Gemini conversations say Epic & Sweeney have spent ~$100M in legal fees fighting Apple and Google while essentially giving up ~$800-900M in lost iOS Fortnite revenues. But Fortnite continues to make revenues of $5-6B for Epic annually, but at a very high cost, both profit wise and in laid off workers in the last year, ~1900 employees lost their jobs due to Sweeney’s mismanagement. Its detailed more below.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (8/17-8/21/26) - 'Steven: Alphabet may have that ambition (a hardware platform) but BRK can’t really reliably forecast how and when that will happen and what the uptake will be in the future. I’m not sure that’s a game Warren Buffett and Greg Abel want to play but I do appreciate your point. There will be winners and losers in the AI race. Is BRK picking its horse so-to-speak for the big race? I do see Alphabet and Microsoft as two of the potential big winners in the AI derby.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (8/17-8/21/26) - 'David: In my observation it’s the fast pace of earnings growth that is moving the market higher. At this time I don’t think share price appreciation is keeping pace, in general, with the rise in earnings. In my view, that’s a good thing. My concern is the pace of earnings growth is apt to slow and once earnings growth slows the seemingly insatiable investor demand for equities may also diminish. I do think there’s more to go in the current bull market. However, investors shouldn’t expect the pace of today’s share price gains to continue indefinitely. I am concerned about the high level of leverage in the market already.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - 'From the article: “Here is what Apple offered: • 15% for standard apps, which are subject to a 30% in-app purchase commission • 10% for the Video Partner Program, the News Partner Program, the Mini Apps Partner Program, and subscription renewals • 5% for Small Business Program apps Apple stated that it believes these rates will be highly competitive versus using in-app purchases. It is also enough that Apple will have some mild profit margin as well. Apple also filed an Administration Motion for Referral to Settlement Conference. It suggests that a settlement conference would help both parties reach resolution and narrow or resolve remaining issues.” It’s certainly true that Epic doesn’t qualify as a “small business” so 5% is out. The 15% on new and 10% on renewals is more than generous discounts from the App Store and is a way for Sweeney to claim victory and save face while getting a deal done. But Sweeney wants a Zero payment commission and will continue to waste his company’s money by continuing. Meanwhile, Apple has plenty of legal litigators ready and standing by. In the article, there is an X link to Epic’s Newsroom and their predictable spin response. But Epic doesn’t want dissent so “only certain accounts can respond”, 75% of which support Epic. I guess freedom of expression isn’t a reality for Epic either.'