David Drinkwater on Richard Windsor: Apple and Google — Desperate Times - '“Furthermore, Google will be incentivised to ensure that Android gets the latest AI features before Apple does, meaning that there could easily be a situation where Apple’s AI is worse than what is available on Android.” I think this thought process by “Radio Free Mobile” is highly misguided. If Apple is paying Google a lot of money, there is no way Google is incentivized to give their best products to someone else!'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'In Thursday trading the S&P 500 closed up 17.87 at 6,944.47. The day’s high was 6,979.34 and close to the all-time high set on Monday of 6,986.33. The DJIA rose 292.81 and ended the session at 49,442.44. The intra-day high of 49,581.18 was close to Monday’s all-time high of 49,633.35. In contrast Apple fell $1.80 to close at $258.21. Morgan Stanley gained $10.45 or 5.78% to end the day at $191.23. Goldman Sachs, which also reported today, gained $43.19 or 4.63% to close at $975.86. Taiwan Semiconductor rose $14.53 or 4.44% on strong quarterly results.'
on Omdia: Apple's Macs and MacBooks had a very good year - ' I finally bit the bullet and just replaced my 10-year-old Intel-powered MacBook Air with an M4 Air with a significant memory and hard-drive upgrade. That’s asking a lot of compatibility/upgradeability capability. It took a lot to complete your task. I have to wonder if you could have accomplished as much on a different platform.'
on Bloomberg: Apple feeling the pinch of soaring memory prices - 'Yep, Neal had same thought. Apple in its wisdom has not raised prices in years past when it certainly could have, thus building trust capital within its user community for when they must raise prices. They also have been growing overall GM for years, as well as managing prepurchased capacity well.'
on Tim Culpan: Apple can't get all the TLC from TSMC it needs - 'In any event, IF a company drops from the largest to 3rd largest customer, for example, the supplier will still be working feverishly to maintain the relationship. Nothing burger. (Have these authors ever worked in the real world??)'
on 'For an AI loser, Apple did an awful lot of winning last year' - 'Apple is a mammoth business, but as I said today in another thread here, Apple is not standing in place, but continually growing and improving. AND they have more money than they can possibly spend (hence buybacks). There’s not the slightest doubt in my mind that Apple is precisely directing its juggernaut of a business. In spite of all the FUDD about how it has “missed out” on AI, it is fine-tuning its course to more completely take AI into account.'
on 'For an AI loser, Apple did an awful lot of winning last year' - 'Yep, you beat me to it, Bill. Perhaps AI will have different emergent winners year to year over the next decades and even a company “winning” next year loses out in future years as demand and monetization changes. As the device and service gatekeeper Apple stands to gain whomever emerges year to year with great new AI related products. With their current model to purchase AI backend functionality will they lose out on some opportunity cost/profit potentially? Yes. But also with the current model will they avoid substantial downside risk on Capex while they are increasing margins and have returned to double digit growth? Also yes. Let me repeat. Apple is returning to double digit growth, have been increasing margins for years, and all this with a still rock solid balance sheet allowing for stockholder returns. I like.'
on Tim Culpan: Apple can't get all the TLC from TSMC it needs - 'Good points, Bill. I’d add that Apple is not standing in place, but continually improving and growing. If TCM can’t keep up with Apple’s pace, Apple WILL find a solution, just like it did with Intel and with Motorola before that.'
on Tim Culpan: Apple can't get all the TLC from TSMC it needs - 'That bit quoted above by Phillip doesn’t reflect the full article, which has a bunch of caveats that are pretty huge, including: “First, while smartphone processors are the largest portion of chips bought by Apple, they’re not the only type. Processors for Macs come under HPC, while it also has a strong lineup of custom chips used in accessories which fall under digital consumer electronics. Second, Nvidia isn’t the only HPC client. AMD is a major buyer of capacity for its own GPUs while Amazon and Google are on the growing list of customers developing in-house AI chips. Put another way, Apple’s chip catalog is broader and more varied, while Nvidia’s lineup is more concentrated around a huge number of wafers at, or near, leading-edge. It’s for these reasons that Apple will remain important for at least another decade.” Add in the reliability of demand for Apple’s business to TSMC and the possible temporary nature of this AI chip boom – both of which the article emphasizes – and the overall message seems to be “TSMC is trying to satisfy the demand for high-performance chips, while ensuring that it’s maintaining and satisfying its long-term relationship with Apple.”'
on Omdia: Apple's Macs and MacBooks had a very good year - 'That “100%” must not include Chromebooks. I believe those are still ‘a thing’ in the low end consumer and school markets.'
on Omdia: Apple's Macs and MacBooks had a very good year - 'Fred – 13-inch, mainly because I’ve also got a Mac desktop with a large screen that I use for work that requires more screen space for data analyses, visualization, etc with multiple applications open and visible at the same time and a lot of hopping back and forth, and I use the MacBook for investment-related stuff and entertainment, and when I’m travelling. So far it seems pretty good. I like the feel of the keyboard, and the thumbprint security feature in place of passwords is a significant improvement from the 2015 Intel Macbook. And then of course I also like that all websites and browsers work, given that my 2015 machine was frozen in the past and no longer update-able in terms of the OS or the software!'
on Omdia: Apple's Macs and MacBooks had a very good year - 'I first tried a variety of installations using a cable connection between the computers and direct transfer using the “Migration Assistant”. Initially it was everything, including applications, but for some unknown reason that resulted in constant “malware” warnings popping up on the new MacBook that are apparently actually related to something to do with Citrix incompatibilities (which I’ve never had installed on my computers). I tried getting rid of them using both Terminal and the Activity Monitor, but they kept seeming to reappear immediately even though there was no sign of anything actually existing. Then I tried Migration Assistant transfers without the applications, which resulted in nothing being transferred. Then I tried it via a Time Machine backup using Migration Assistant, initially with applications but that also resulted in nothing being transferred. And then finally via Time Machine backup and limited to settings and documents – and that worked. So then I just downloaded and installed the various applications from their makers’ websites, as opposed to via the App Store, and spent another half-day replicating all my settings for the applications. So not quite as seamless as Apple’s upgrades are supposed to be.'
on 'For an AI loser, Apple did an awful lot of winning last year' - 'But even that point about “the challenge ahead of Apple” isn’t really a challenge ahead of Apple, because it’s a challenge ahead of all the tech companies that have any strategic plan that involves AI. And a far, far bigger challenge for all the companies that are spending hundreds of billions of dollars just to develop a better-working LLM that almost nobody wants to pay to use. Especially when a “better-working” LLM is quite possibly not possible. Compare that to Apple, that is properly treating LLMs as just a different integrated product that is pretty analogous to the variety of proprietary browsers that are available for use on iPhones and other Apple hardware. Ultimately, if a consumer-based market for AI never materializes, which is pretty likely at least for what’s now being offered – an LLM-centric AI business model – then Apple will be the only big tech company that is largely immunized from the financial wreck that’s going to leave in its wake. Because Apple is (thankfully!) the only one of the bunch that seems to have asked and properly answered the question, “Why spend hundreds of billions of dollars developing a tool when we can pay $1 billion instead and get the same utility with the ease of use and security that Apple users demand?”'
on Omdia: Apple's Macs and MacBooks had a very good year - 'Bill: How did you get it to work? It said “I can’t do that, Dave.” and I gave up! I don’t have the knowledge or skills or time to put up with the hassle.'
on 'For an AI loser, Apple did an awful lot of winning last year' - 'Mark Gurman, where are you when we need you? He’s in an opium den hallucinating his next big reveal.'
on Bloomberg: Apple feeling the pinch of soaring memory prices - 'So does anyone think iPhone prices will go up next year because of this? At least for the base model. Especially since Apple has not raised prices the past few years.'
on Omdia: Apple's Macs and MacBooks had a very good year - 'Fred, I have ceased collecting data for my spreadsheets. After more than a decade of doing so I’ve noticed that changes to trading patterns don’t change much. When I quote a pattern it is from memory. There are only a few metrics that have stood out to me since 2010, so I don’t have to remember much. Those are QoQ and % of annual revenue per quarter. Those have remained very constant, especially percent of annual revenue representing Q1. Knowing that I can guesstimate Q2, Q3 and Q4 with reasonable accuracy in January. I fine tune each quarter using Apple’s guidance. I guess you could say I “time” my trades. I do but only to the extent of long tracked seasonality.'
on Tim Culpan: Apple can't get all the TLC from TSMC it needs - 'They need to control their destiny with this important piece of the biz.'
on Tim Culpan: Apple can't get all the TLC from TSMC it needs - 'Hence the rumors that Apple is interested in the Intel Foundry business'
on Gene Munster says the Apple-Gemini deal could be worth $5B, not $1B, to Google - 'Why look it up when you can ask AI?'
on Tim Culpan: Apple can't get all the TLC from TSMC it needs - 'Let’s look back in 24 short months shall we?'
on Tim Culpan: Apple can't get all the TLC from TSMC it needs - 'Does this mean that Apple is now just like Avis?'
on Premarket: Apple is red - '“Max pain moves down $5 to $225…” What are options traders signaling here? My guess: There’s a growing concern approaching certainty about negative macro forces impacting stocks, including Apple. I believe Apple is recognized as a general stock of refuge. Nevertheless, sime traders consider AAPL has room to fall as a result of its recent run-up in valuation. Time to buckle up….'
on Omdia: Apple's Macs and MacBooks had a very good year - 'Thanks. What screen size and how do you like it now?'
on Omdia: Apple's Macs and MacBooks had a very good year - 'Thanks Gregg. I’d love to hear your ‘pluses and minuses’ of the migration. And especially since you seem to be one who uses spreadsheets. And because my MacBook pro has an intel processor and is about 6 years old. So upgrading this year.'
on Bloomberg: Apple feeling the pinch of soaring memory prices - 'I sent PED a link to an article that says Apple is now competing with NVIDIA for TSMC foundry capacity. That’s the article Bloomberg should have run, it makes more sense than the short-term memory market.'
on Omdia: Apple's Macs and MacBooks had a very good year - 'One of them was me. I finally bit the bullet and just replaced my 10-year-old Intel-powered MacBook Air with an M4 Air with a significant memory and hard-drive upgrade. It took me 3 days this week to get the “Migration Assistant” to work properly – nothing like repeatedly waiting 4 hours to discover that nothing at all has transferred!'
on Bloomberg: Apple feeling the pinch of soaring memory prices - 'I don’t believe Tim would make this mistake but a failure of not expecting this sudden rise in memory + storage prices and not locking longer than normal purchase agreements would hasten his replacment as CEO.'
on Gene Munster says the Apple-Gemini deal could be worth $5B, not $1B, to Google - 'Well, they already do that. I don’t see LLMs resulting in additional ad revenue for anyone, but rather just a new way of fighting over the existing ad revenue. Otherwise, it would require advertisers to be paying Google a second time for ads appearing in Gemini searches, etc. Put another way, companies only have one advertising budget, and will spend it where they get the best return. If it’s via LLMs, they’ll go there; if it’s search-based, they’ll go there. But they won’t be saying, “Hey, let’s double our ad spending so we can get the same return as we’re now getting.” [Because the consumer also only has one pocket.]'


