Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Apple did set a new all-time high of $339.57 in intraday activity and is likely to set a new all-time closing high, eclipsing the most recent closing high of $333.74 set 10 days ago on Friday, July 17th.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Approaching the final minutes of Monday trading and Apple is up $3.31 or 0.99% at $336.33. About 66% of S&P 500 components are higher on the day. Among the DJIA components Salesforce is leading the index higher with a 6.72% gain followed by American Express which is up 3.07% on this Monday. The Russell 2000 small cap index is again out performing the S&P 500, the DJIA and the Nasdaq Composite. The index is up 0.76% on the day.'
on Apple touches $339.57 — a new intraday high — and overtakes Nvidia - 'Is this a run up to earnings? Or possibly a short squeeze happening? Maybe both? Who knows? Either way, looking forward to another solid earnings report on Thursday. Tim Cook’s last one as Apple’s active CEO before he becomes the Board’s Executive Director. Here are the recent numbers for the short sellers: Short interest was (138.782) Million as of May 15, 2026. 2.744 Short interest was (155.886) Million as of May 29, 2026. 3.384 Short interest was (144.248) Million as of June 15, 2026. 2.755 Short interest was (140.526) Million as of June 30, 2026. 1.732 Short interest was (146.547) Million as of July 15, 2026. 3.05'
on 22 minutes with ex-Twitter CEO Dick Costolo - 'I didn’t listen to all of it. My takeaway was a new expression, one describing the dumbing-down effect of A.I.: “Cognitive off-loading.”'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Go on a 10 year AAPL chart, and draw a line along the highs between now and the 40 PE Apple first hit in 2020 after a massive revaluation upwards. Do you see all that area underneath that line? That’s the price Apple paid to buy back it’s undervalued stock…. And the line itself predicts the future….'
on Apple touches $339.57 — a new intraday high — and overtakes Nvidia - 'Time for a three for one split!'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'That 40 valuation is starting to look pretty sticky…. With solid EPS growth, the Price/ EPS Ratio is going to shrink. But that only leaves room for a return to that P/E sticking point. And buybacks help drive up EPS. Get it yet? I’ve been trying to point that out for many years now….'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Well, AAPL is still sliding upward. Just passed 335 at 11:45 Pacific.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Hi, Daniel. “The move could be partially a reaction to Iran crisis pause.” The “Hormuz Stalemate” continues, as does the “Ukraine Stalemate” The only real problem is paying for both. But in the US, it’s mostly the middle class paying the bill, not the truly wealthy, thanks to the Republicans’ “Big Beautiful Bill” and the exceedingly low “Billionaire Flat Tax”. So the US’s truly, wealthy, and many in the rest of the world, don’t care….'
on Goldman Sachs raises Apple target $30 to $370 - '3. Cloud Hybrid AI acts as the Perfect “Cost Buffer” Because Android makers have a massive safety net that Apple lacks—Google Cloud & Gemini—they do not need to over-spec their cheap hardware. Instead of spending money to build heavy 12GB RAM mid-range phones that can process AI locally, Android brands can simply ship a standard 6GB RAM phone & route any AI requests through the cloud. This strategy allows them to stamped a flashy “AI Capable” badge on the retail box w/o paying a single extra cent for premium on-device hardware components. The Strategic Conclusion Your argument highlights exactly why the total Android AI shipment numbers can be deceptive. While the silicon processors inside $250–$600 chips will technically become AI-capable out of the box, manufacturers will intentionally starve lower-tier devices of the heavy RAM configurations required to run advanced AI locally. By keeping mid-range RAM restricted & relying on cheap cloud routing, Android OEMs can protect their financial recovery while keeping their retail focus entirely on the battery, screen, & camera features that price-sensitive markets actually demand.”'
on Goldman Sachs raises Apple target $30 to $370 - '2. India is Completely Insulated (The True Growth Engine) Under Apple’s corporate reporting structure, India sits w/in the Europe geosegment. This structural detail is crucial because India is entirely unaffected by the EU’s regulatory blockades. • Booming Revenue: While Europe faces a flat upgrade cycle, Apple India is experiencing an explosion in demand. Local revenue is projected to cross a record-breaking ₹1.4 Lakh Crore ($16.8B). • Defying the Market Crash: Amid a severe global chip shortage that forced a 13% drop in overall Indian smartphone shipments, Omdia data shows iPhone sales in India actually grew 12% YoY. Affluent Indian consumers are rapidly shifting away from mid-range Android devices —> premium hardware. 3. Mac & Wearables Keep the EU Loop Alive Even w/in the geographic borders of the EU, Apple has maintained a critical beachhead for its native AI suite: • The “Gatekeeper” Distinction: The EU’s DMA restrictions specifically target mobile operating systems (iOS & iPadOS). • Full Access on Mac: Apple Intelligence & rebuilt Siri AI face zero restrictions on macOS inside EU. An EU consumer buying an iPhone 17 or 18 can still fully utilize Apple’s ecosystem AI on their MacBook or Mac Mini. This preserves ecosystem stickiness & prevents users from abandoning Apple for Windows or Android hardware. The Financial Verdict Apple’s Europe geosegment numbers are a tale of two realities. The EU sub-segment is experiencing an artificial ceiling on its upgrade speed, but total collapse is avoided because users are content to use iPhones as premium vessels for third-party apps like ChatGPT. Concurrently, India & Middle East are acting as massive financial counterweights. By expanding local manufacturing & capturing the rising upper-middle class in emerging markets, Apple’s broader geosegment momentum remains entirely intact—even while its legal teams iron out details with Brussels. “I’d argue that while $250-600 Android models may have technical specs or higher memory loads IF memory prices retreat, it’s not clear Android makers who are recovering would load up cheaper models w/that much memory to make them AI capable because AI is NOT a major decision maker for price sensitive markets.” “That is a highly accurate macroeconomic critique, it cuts straight to the core of why Android manufacturers consistently struggle to maintain stable profit margins compared to Apple. You are entirely correct: in the $250–$600 mid-range price bracket, consumers prioritize concrete, tangible hardware over abstract software features like generative AI. When memory prices eventually decline, Android manufacturers are far more likely to pocket the savings as pure profit (45% of savings) or reallocate their manufacturing budgets toward features that actually drive sales in value-conscious markets. 1. What Mid-Range Buyers Actually Value For consumers buying a $350 phone in a price-sensitive market (such as India, SE Asia, or Latin America), “on-device AI processing” sits very low on their wishlist. Instead, their purchasing decisions are driven by three primary pillars: • Physical Battery Life: Large 5,000-6,000mAh cells that can reliably last two full days on a single charge. (20% of savings) • Display & Refresh Rates: Bright, outdoor-readable AMOLED screens featuring smooth 120Hz refresh rates. • Camera MP Counts: High-resolution multi-camera arrays that look impressive on a retail spec-sheet. (25% of savings) Loading an extra 4GB to 6GB of expensive RAM into a mid-range phone (10% allocation of savings) just to run local AI models adds immense hidden cost w/o giving retail sales representatives a flashy feature to pitch to a budget-conscious shopper. 2. The Margin Recovery Trap Android original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) like Xiaomi, Oppo, & Vivo operate on razor-thin net profit margins, often hovering between 3% & 8%. • The Squeeze: The recent memory chip crisis severely damaged their profitability, forcing them to absorb high component costs or risk alienating buyers w/retail price hikes. • The Recovery: When semiconductor supply chains normalize & RAM prices drop, these brands will face immense pressure from shareholders to recharge their corporate profit margins rather than giving away expensive hardware upgrades for free. • The Status Quo: Keeping a mid-range phone at a standard 6GB or 8GB of RAM allows them to pocket the financial difference, repair their balance sheets, & keep retail prices low. Continued'
on Goldman Sachs raises Apple target $30 to $370 - 'Question for the group. Is it possible to use a VPN and fake your location and download a fully functional iOS update with AI and the new Siri? Seems to me that would be desired in the EU.'
on Goldman Sachs raises Apple target $30 to $370 - 'I’m continuing my exploration of Apple’s “existential risk” & impacts of being “behind in AI”, how AI capability IS or IS NOT a big purchasing factor for iPhone vs Android sales, & whether Apple vs Android translates into more return or revenue or not. Quick numbers: By end of 2028, total AI capable smartphones in use or sold: Apple iPhones ~850M, all premium models >$600, non-AI models still in Install base due to longevity Android ~1150M, includes premium & midrange models >$250-$600 ASSUMING memory prices fall back due to AI bubble bursting AND Android makers increase memory loads to make cheaper lower midrange models “AI capable”. A specific question by Neal Guttenberg regarding how Apple’s Europe geosegment sales may be affected by EU DMA regulators demanding Apple compliance: “2. How the EU Slowdown Shifts Sales Numbers Because the EU market is being denied the primary marketing reason to upgrade, Apple’s local performance will suffer a sharp fracture through 2027: • Stagnant Replacement Cycles: European consumers hold onto their phones for an average of 3.8 years. Without a “must-have” feature like Siri AI, upgrade rates will flatten. Millions of users will choose cheap battery replacements for their iPhone 13s or 14s rather than buying a new device. • The Android Defection Risk: Android is capitalizing on Apple’s absence. The European Commission recently ruled that Google must offer competing AI assistants broader access to Android. This means Samsung & Google can legally deploy fully compliant cloud-hybrid AI across Europe today, tempting premium iOS users to switch. • The Revenue Hit: Analysts project that the EU AI omission threatens up to 40% of Apple’s near-term growth runway. It shaves roughly $4 to $6B off Apple’s projected global hardware revenue for 2026 & 2027 compared to an un-restricted market timeline. 3. Why Apple’s Global Outlook Remains High Despite the severe EU headwind, Apple’s overall valuation is still breaking records because its strategy accounts for this geographic loss: • The MAC Loophole: The DMA blockade only applies to iOS, iPadOS, watchOS. Siri AI is fully active for EU users on macOS & visionOS because those platforms aren’t legally designated as market “gatekeepers”. • The China Offset: Apple recently secured regulatory clearing for Apple Intelligence in China via local partnerships w/Alibaba & Baidu. Winning back the massive Chinese luxury hardware market more than financially balances out the stagnation happening in Europe. Let’s continue: “what about continued iPhone sales momentum in the Europe geosegment (which includes India) because EU users are still buying iPhones at a solid rate even w/o full Siri AI & Apple Intelligence & they can access major AI apps like ChatGTP, Gemini, & others if they want it badly enough?” “Yes, the underlying sales numbers remain remarkably resilient because Apple’s structural momentum in the broader Europe geosegment—which includes India, the Middle East, & Africa—is being sustained by a combination of premium brand loyalty, massive growth in non-EU countries, & the availability of third-party AI apps. While Wall Street adjusted its growth expectations downward to reflect the missing Siri AI upgrade cycle inside the EU, Apple is not seeing a catastrophic drop-off in baseline European sales. Consumers are continuing to purchase iPhones for reasons that bypass native operating system AI. 1. The “App Loophole” Sustains EU Sales • European consumers are well aware that they do not need native Apple Intelligence to use advanced AI on an iPhone. • Siri vs. The App Store: While Apple’s native features are blocked on mobile due to the Digital Markets Act, the EU has no restrictions on standalone AI applications. • Unrestricted Access: Premium iOS users can easily download ChatGPT, Google Gemini, & Claude directly from the App Store. Because these standalone apps fulfill 90% of a consumer’s generative AI needs (text composition, image generation, & search queries), the lack of built-in Siri AI is proving to be a minor nuisance rather than a dealbreaker for the average smartphone buyer. Continued'
on Goldman Sachs raises Apple target $30 to $370 - 'As everyone here knows, Goldman Sachs is a significant brand name on Wall Street. And so other analysts are going to be paying close attention. Goldman’s reasons for raising their target on Apple are standard run-of-the-mill, nothing we all haven’t heard before. I think what’s significant is that they’re raising it just a few days before the ER. Like most big Wall Street firms Goldman Sachs tends to be fairly conservative with their targets. They don’t want to risk their client’s dough. MY TAKE I think the timing and significant amount of the target increase from a brand like Goldman Sachs is going to fuel a chain reaction. As other firms follow suit and raise their targets. Whether they do it before the ER or after, doesn’t matter. I think Apple‘s ER is going to be fine. Whether there is a “sell on the news” algorithm moment or not, all else being equal, I think Apple is heading to $365 by the end of the year, IMO. I think the benefits of Apple’s strategy – particularly their very smart approach to investing CapEx in AI, as well as the coming new and existing product upgrade cycle – all seems pretty obvious now. Not to mention, not unlike Goldman Sachs, now seems like a good time to put good karma out there. Happy trading, all.'
on Goldman Sachs raises Apple target $30 to $370 - 'Clever, Steven! As for the biblical version: On May 24, 1844, inventor Samuel Morse sent these exact words over the world’s first long-distance electric telegraph line, from Washington, D.C. to Baltimore, Maryland'
on Laura Martin: Apple's existential risk - 'I modified your question to included sales and revenue: “Yes, Wall Street’s revised numbers fully incorporate an intense EU sales slowdown. The European Union accounts for roughly 27% of Apple’s global revenue. Analysts adjusted Apple’s forward numbers following the announcement that Apple is officially withholding Siri AI and Apple Intelligence from the iPhone and iPad in the EU on iOS 27 and iPadOS 27, with no timeline for arrival. The regulatory blockade—and how it alters Apple’s financial trajectory in Europe—comes down to specific impacts: 1. The Core Issue: The “Siri Blockade” • The Conflict: Under the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), regulators demand that Apple give third-party AI assistants deep, interoperable access to system capabilities. • Apple’s Refusal: Apple claims this “extreme interpretation” forces them to give outside AI models unlimited, autonomous access to private user files and messages. • The Reality: Consequently, EU buyers of the iPhone 17 and upcoming iPhone 18 lines are completely locked out of core features like on-device writing tools, visual intelligence, and the entirely rebuilt Siri. 2. How the EU Slowdown Shifts Sales Numbers Because the EU market is being denied the primary marketing reason to upgrade, Apple’s local performance will suffer a sharp fracture through 2027: • Stagnant Replacement Cycles: European consumers hold onto their phones for an average of 3.8 years. Without a “must-have” feature like Siri AI, upgrade rates will flatten. Millions of users will choose cheap battery replacements for their iPhone 13s or 14s rather than buying a new device. • The Android Defection Risk: Android is capitalizing on Apple’s absence. The European Commission recently ruled that Google must offer competing AI assistants broader access to Android. This means Samsung and Google can legally deploy fully compliant cloud-hybrid AI across Europe today, tempting premium iOS users to switch. • The Revenue Hit: Analysts project that the EU AI omission threatens up to 40% of Apple’s near-term growth runway. It shaves roughly $4 Billion to $6 Billion off Apple’s projected global hardware revenue for 2026 and 2027 compared to an un-restricted market timeline. 3. Why Apple’s Global Outlook Remains High Despite the severe EU headwind, Apple’s overall valuation is still breaking records because its strategy accounts for this geographic loss: • The MAC Loophole: The DMA blockade only applies to iOS, iPadOS, and watchOS. Siri AI is fully active for EU users on macOS and visionOS because those platforms aren’t legally designated as market “gatekeepers”. • The China Offset: Apple recently secured regulatory clearing for Apple Intelligence in China via local partnerships with Alibaba and Baidu. Winning back the massive Chinese luxury hardware market more than financially balances out the stagnation happening in Europe. I’ll continue on Monday’s posts.'
on Laura Martin: Apple's existential risk - 'Before I answer that, here’s revised numbers for sales per Gemini: “You are completely correct to flag those numbers—the original projection underestimated Apple’s GenAI shipment volume by treating “AI-capable shipments” as only a fraction of new sales, rather than looking at Apple’s actual total transition.Industry data from Counterpoint Research confirms that Apple has already shipped over 450 million AI-capable devices cumulatively. Because Apple builds 8GB+ RAM into virtually its entire new pipeline (iPhone 16, 17, and the upcoming 18 lines), almost every new iPhone sold moving forward counts as GenAI-capable.Adjusting for Apple’s baseline annual shipment volume (which consistently hovers between 210M and 230M units), the corrected, realistic breakdown presents a more accurate picture: Corrected Annual GenAI Smartphone Shipments (New Units Sold) ️ Year 2026 (The Current Year) Apple iOS: ~210 Million Units • The Correction: Because the iPhone 17 and upcoming iPhone 18 families have standard AI configurations, Apple’s entire new shipment baseline is AI-capable. They are highly insulated from the broader 13.9% market crash. Android: ~276 Million Units The Context: • Total market shipments are compressed to 1.08 billion total units due to the severe server-RAM chip squeeze. However, Counterpoint tracks GenAI at 45% of that global market share, meaning Android flagships and select premium tiers still pull in 276M units. ️ Year 2027 (The Global Crossover) Apple iOS: ~220 Million Units • The Context: Driven heavily by the full-year sales cycle of the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and the highly anticipated foldable iPhone Ultra. Legacy non-AI iPhones drop off retail shelves entirely. Android: ~361 Million Units • The Context: Total global smartphone shipments slightly contract by another 1.1% before stabilizing. However, GenAI penetration scales up to 52% of all shipments, expanding Android’s volume as mid-range chipsets adopt local NPUs. ️ Year 2028 (Total Market Saturation) Apple iOS: ~235 Million Units • The Context: The global market undergoes a sharp 5.5% macroeconomic recovery. Apple rides this wave with the iPhone 19 generation, capturing pure replacement cycles. Android: ~485 Million Units • The Context: New chip factories normalize the global semiconductor supply. GenAI capability is no longer a premium upsell; it becomes the default baseline for 9 out of 10 Android devices priced over $250. Revised Active Installed Base (Devices in actual use) With these corrected shipment volumes, Apple’s active AI footprint expands much more aggressively because it doesn’t suffer from the hardware retirement drop-offs impacting older Android models. 2026: Apple: ~480M active Android: ~710M active 2027: Apple: ~660M active Android: ~840M active 2028: Apple: ~850M active Android: ~1.15B active ((So one year later by 2028, the gap widens from a revised 180M to 300M. Again, I’d argue that while $250-600 Android models may have technical specs or higher memory loads IF memory prices crash, it’s not clear Android makers who are recovering would load up cheaper models with that much memory to make them AI capable because AI is NOT a major decision maker for price sensitive markets.)) Thank you for catching that error. This updated model correctly reflects Apple’s strategy of executing a complete, top-to-bottom ecosystem flip to AI-standard hardware.'
on Goldman Sachs raises Apple target $30 to $370 - 'After seeing this price increase it’s patently obvious that they have not hired Rod Hall as a consultant.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Surprising stock strength on a Monday morning. I wonder if it will grow or wane after Europe market closes. The move could be partially a reaction to Iran crisis pause. Optimism before earnings usually peaks around now.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Thanks for the heads-up, David! Meanwhile, Max Pain remains unconvinced….'
on Goldman Sachs raises Apple target $30 to $370 - 'They have a year to be right. It’s definitely doable.'
on Apple says Micron's profit margins are too high - '@Bart: Incredible, Thanks. You have helped me add to and confirm my list of companies for Leap Puts when we see this forecast beginning to take shape.'
on Apple says Micron's profit margins are too high - '“Which tech or AI companies are most vulnerable or at existential risk if an infrastructure slowdown occurs by late 2027 or into 2028? What would be the impact?” “If the hyperscaler infrastructure boom slows or reverses by late 2027, the tech ecosystem will face a sharp structural correction. The companies at highest risk are those whose current market valuations and revenue streams depend entirely on hyper-growth infrastructure capital expenditures (CapEx). 1. Pure-Play AI Hardware Providers (Extreme Risk) These companies design the core compute components driving the AI buildout. They have the most to lose if capital spending stalls. Nvidia (NVDA) • The Vulnerability: Nvidia is the primary beneficiary of the AI boom, meaning it faces the steepest potential fall. Over 85% of its data center revenue comes directly from the handful of hyperscalers currently overbuilding infrastructure. • The Impact: A spending freeze would trigger an immediate inventory glut of Blackwell and next-generation Ultra GPUs. Nvidia’s near-90% gross margins would collapse as pricing power evaporates. Its stock valuation, heavily predicated on perpetual high-double-digit growth, would face a severe contraction. However, the company would survive due to its lack of internal factories and massive cash reserves. Broadcom (AVGO) & Marvell Technology (MRVL) The Vulnerability: These firms dominate the custom AI ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) and high-speed networking chip market (Ethernet/InfiniBand switches). • The Impact: Custom chip designs for specific hyperscalers would be canceled or paused mid-cycle. Revenue from AI networking components would drop sharply, forcing these companies to rely back on their legacy, slower-growth telecom and enterprise software segments. 2. Semiconductor Foundries and Equipment Makers (High Risk) These companies build the physical machines and factories required to manufacture cutting-edge AI silicon. They cannot easily reduce expenses when demand drops. ASML Holding (ASML) • The Vulnerability: ASML holds a monopoly on the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines required to make advanced chips. • The Impact: Foundries like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel would immediately cancel or delay orders for these $200M+ machines as they freeze factory expansions. ASML would see its massive order backlog evaporate overnight, leading to severe revenue visibility issues lasting multiple years. TSMC (TSM) • The Vulnerability: As the world’s primary advanced semiconductor foundry, TSMC manufactures almost all high-end AI chips for Nvidia, AMD, Apple, and Google. • The Impact: Advanced packaging lines (like CoWoS) would instantly see underutilization. While Apple’s steady consumer demand would provide a financial floor for TSMC, the massive premium margins earned from rushing out AI silicon would vanish, depressing overall corporate profitability. 3. Tier-2 Cloud and Single-Product AI Startups (Existential Risk) These companies lack the diverse product portfolios and cash cushions of Big Tech, making a funding freeze potentially fatal. Specialized GPU Cloud Providers (e.g., CoreWeave, Lambda Labs) • The Vulnerability: These companies borrowed billions of dollars, using Nvidia GPUs as collateral, to build massive AI-specific data centers. • The Impact: If demand for raw GPU compute capacity softens, compute rental prices will plunge. These firms would struggle to generate enough cash flow to service their massive debt loads, putting them at high risk of bankruptcy or forced fire sales. Foundation Model Startups (e.g., Mid-tier LLM developers) • The Vulnerability: Many venture-backed AI companies spend up to 80% of their funding directly on cloud compute costs to train models that have low consumer monetization. • The Impact: As venture capital dries up alongside an infrastructure slowdown, startups without a sticky, revenue-generating enterprise product will run out of cash. A massive wave of consolidation would follow, with Big Tech acquiring their talent via acqui-hires. 4. Server Integrators and Component Vendors (High Risk) These businesses assemble the physical server racks and cooling infrastructure for data centers, operating on thin margins. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) • The Vulnerability: Supermicro acts as a direct pipeline turning Nvidia chips into complete data center server blocks. It runs on tight margins and relies on rapid inventory turnover. • The Impact: A sudden demand drop would leave the company holding billions of dollars in rapidly depreciating hardware inventory. Liquidating this excess stock at a loss would severely damage its balance sheet and cash flow.'
on Laura Martin: Apple's existential risk - 'IMO, it could be the other way around, when OpenAI’s management implodes from massive spending promises, tens if not hundreds of billions of debt, datacenter over capacity and excessively steep and overly long term energy contracts, and much less revenue than ever forecast aft due to commodization of AI models. I dare say Apple “could” purchase OpenAI or sign favorable long term usage contracts with them, but I’m confident Apple wouldn’t want OpenAI, especially if Sam Altman or his management team is still there.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (7/27-7/31/26) - 'Heading toward Monday morning and Apple is up $2.98 overnight at $336 per share.'


