Recent Comments

  • Bart Yee on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'One other thought. When the next meeting occurs, perhaps some thought to have it also broadcast on FaceTime from a preset vantage point and if the venue has a large screen TV monitor. For those with iPhone and iPad, we can watch, tag along or interject. For those with a Vision Pro, they will be virtually there. I know it’s not the same as being there but many could be virtually there, minus the entree, desert and wine, although I’m sure we can scrounge up our own. Also the event can be recorded for posterity and kept internal like on the slack archive. Just a few thoughts.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (7/13-7/17/26) - 'We have several of the nation’s biggest financial firms on deck to report earnings this week. I’m getting out the popcorn and getting ready to watch the results…'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (7/13-7/17/26) - 'Index futures are red at 1am ET Monday. Apple is up $0.10 at $315.42 overnight. I’m looking forward to another good week for the market as we enter earnings season.'
  • Lenny Sachs on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'Joseph, Philip et al – thank you. great meeting you all!'
  • John Konopka on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'Gregg, we missed you. Many people mentioned your absence.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'PED and Apple 3.0 subscribers rock! A fantastic time meeting everyone in person.'
  • David Thall on Apple nears (or tops) analysts' average target - 'As a long-term Apple investor for decades, I mostly look at two things when it comes to assessing analyst targets. First, their respective track records. A consensus is a nice gauge, but not really worth that much except maybe as a weathervane. And it’s been my experience that the AAPL consensus is generally a low ball. Second, if an analyst works at a brokerage firm, then their primary responsible is to their client’s success. And very likely to be more conservative with their targets. I mean, if they lose their client’s dough, they’re going to lose their clients. Representing other people‘s money is going to make them more risk adverse. Not to mention it makes them look good when the stock price goes above their target instead of below it. MY TAKE Daniel Ives has an excellent track record, and historically has had the most bullish targets for Apple. His analysis is generally spot on. And his success is no coincidence. Analyst’s consensus target changes all the time. My confidence in Apple long-term hasn’t.'
  • Bart Yee on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'BTW, at some of our ages, it’s not necessary to wait a year or hold in the same venue. For example, there’s a number of us down in SoCal where another meeting could be held at any time. Same for other locations across the country depending on geographic concentration of Apple 3.0 subscribers.'
  • Richard Gayle on Mark Gurman: Maybe the Apple Car wasn't a dead end - 'I think even more important is the path for the A20 and beyond chips. They are rumored to be using a smaller architecture than the A19 (2 nm vs 3nm), with more dedicated space for the Neural Processing Unit. The effect on AI and Siri will be huge. I suspect Apple will have some more tricks up its sleeve with 2 nm.'
  • Bart Yee on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'Great to see all the attendees and put faces to names, wish I’d been able to go. Looked like a nice venue and I’m sure there were lively discussions.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple nears (or tops) analysts' average target - 'Tim Long is currently the lowest PT within the past 2 months at $253 and a sell rating, going out to April lists Aletheia Capital with a $205 price target and a sell, a reiteration of its January PT. That’s -$62 and -$110 downside from current price total -$172. The two highest outliers are Daniel Ives formerly Wedbush at $400 and Wamsi Mohan BofA at $380. These represent +$85 and +$65 upside, total +150, almost negating the downside.'
  • Bart Yee on Silvant's Michael Sansoterra doesn't believe in Apple AI - 'I guess someone else has been able to monetize AI, but for all the wrong reasons. Figures a Musk company would have few if any guardrails, much like its owner. Lawsuit: Man used Grok to make 7K sex images of stepdaughter, then shot himself More young girls sue X over Grok CSAM; X accused of shielding child predators. A Read in Ars Technica: https://apple.news/Ame-X_2KCRuOmzWZeQZLBBw'
  • Brian Nakamoto on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'It was a pleasure seeing everyone in person. Shoutout also to Allan for being a pre-dinner docent at the Apple Visitor center he helped bring to life!'
  • Gregg Thurman on Jony Ive's AI project draws a lawsuit from Apple - '”Judging from the SpaceX IPO” All evidence aside, there a finite amount of investor capital available for IPOs. Even before this revelation, I think SpaceX took those fearing they will miss out, then dropping significantly (~41% in less than a month after its initial IPO), is going to cause a lot of second thinking about high flyer IPOs. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of hires use this suit as an excuse to move on.'
  • Eric Harbert on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'It was a great evening. Phil, how many minutes did it take to get from your hotel to the airport?!'
  • Gregg Thurman on Mark Gurman: Maybe the Apple Car wasn't a dead end - 'Ahead, behind? I think it’s more complex than that. I think Apple chose the correct path to pursue, and in so doing developed its OS and its own silicon to achieve it. It is there, in the stack, that Apple is ahead.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'We may need a bigger venue in the future.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Mark Gurman: Maybe the Apple Car wasn't a dead end - '”The AI hardware effort originally intended to power a self-driving car is now shaping Macs and AI servers. In the end, one of Apple’s costliest failures may be seen as one of its most consequential technology investments.” The idea of an Apple produced car was sexy as hell, and early on I succumbed to it. But comments by TC regarding VR, AR and AI turned me away from “a car”. I then began to look for a different reason for Project Titan. Until recently I couldn’t figure it out. I now think it was Apple Intelligence, not AI per se. You had to develop Artificial Intelligence before you could develop Apple Intelligence. It all comes down to definitions. Artificial Intelligence does the thinking for you. It has to be trained. That training comes from humans and includes all their flaws. Apple Intelligence isn’t so much about thinking as it is about making things (performance, capabilities) better. This mindset arrived while trying to improve SIRI as Apple envisioned it. My understanding is that Apple essentially stopped SIRI development until it had Apple Intelligence (“making the products you buy better”) fleshed out. But, as TC once said, AI is the mother of all software projects. What we are seeing today started ~10/12 years ago. Apple practiced a philosophy that says, “better to remain silent, and have people think you stupid, than to open your mouth and prove it”. Apple remained silent, but kept slogging away at it goal: an Intelligence that makes things better. With that strategy Apple realized that on-device Intelligence was required, not data centers, hence Apple silicon. Apple silicon was sold as a performance per watt exercise so as not to reveal its longer term strategy: putting Apple Intelligence on-device. Apple achieved both. Apple silicon, A and M Series, and elements like N1 are all about Apple Intelligence (an OS function) and making Apps better/more capable. Apple has always been ahead in the Artificial Intelligence that mattered: making things better. It’s just that we couldn’t see it because Apple didn’t see a need to alert its competition. As Billy Beane, manager of the Oakland A’s, said: “if the other guys are making a mistake, let ‘em”. Apple Intelligence is not an LLM of general knowledge, most of which you won’t use. Apple Intelligence is an OS framework that enables the apps and data you actually use to get better results. When you require data you don’t possess, it accesses an LLM (of your choice) to retrieve it. Apple Intelligence resides on-device protecting your data from public view. Artificial Intelligence and Apple Intelligence are two distinctly different animals. One cannot be ahead or behind the other.'
  • David Emery on Jony Ive's AI project draws a lawsuit from Apple - 'This looks like a completely unforced error by OpenAI and increasingly stellar bad judgement by Jony I see this as a company that reflects the morals (or lack thereof) of its founder, just like Meta. And I would have expected better from Sir Jony, to not be sucked into such an ethical morass.'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'I’ll definitely try to go to the next one if you can make it, Gregg. You are all rock stars here and def all those that were there last night, and it would be great to greet face-to-face our other superstars unable to make it. Cheers!!'
  • Gregg Thurman on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'I really enjoy gatherings like this. The energy level is exceptional. Barring all kinds of age related issues, I’ll be there for the next gathering.'
  • Peter Graff on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'Great to see the happy faces and connect them with at least some of the familiar names. Wish I could have been there.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple nears (or tops) analysts' average target - '”Most interesting, less than a year ago, the highest PT was $300.” Just like Investor Sentiment, Analyst sentiment can change dramatically. It’s all about understanding the Company and its direction. In Apple’s case Sentiment changes most rapidly as Apple discloses more about its product development. Even then Apple disguises what it is doing. The clearest picture comes in hindsight with an understanding of how advances work towards a common, unstated, goal.'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Mark Gurman: Maybe the Apple Car wasn't a dead end - 'I am part of this “some” ↓ Some would argue that Apple is now ahead'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple nears (or tops) analysts' average target - 'This is why I group targets into 3 categories: Future Value, Present Value, No Value. If you dismiss the Present Value cadre, the average moves upward. If you dismiss the Present Value and No Value cadres, the average leaps upward, and more closely matches AAPL’s actual performance. I don’t like doing it, but I read the No Value cadre’s reasoning just in case I missed something. So far, doing so is an exercise in futility.'
  • Greg Lippert on Mark Gurman: Maybe the Apple Car wasn't a dead end - 'Agreed. And it’s what us peeps on this blog have known for years. It was absolutely not a waste of time , resources or talent.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Silvant's Michael Sansoterra doesn't believe in Apple AI - '”The Ecosystem Play: Apple leverages deep OS integration via Apple Intelligence. Rather than charging for features, it treats local AI as an exclusive premium utility to encourage users to purchase expensive hardware upgrades.” Yes.'
  • Greg Lippert on This week's Apple trading strategies (7/13-7/17/26) - 'blah blah, dartboard blindfolded.'
  • Joseph Bland on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'BTW, I consider this “privileged information”, presently shared only with attendees. Please respect that some may not want their info shared outside that group.'