Recent Comments

  • Gregg Thurman on Benedict Evans on Apple AI - '”doesn’t make much sense to me.” That’s because of your inability to connect the dots. That can be cured with a long term subscription to Apple 3.0.'
  • Steven Philips on Can Apple build an AI with a human face? - 'Beat me to it! 🙂'
  • Robert Stack on Can Apple build an AI with a human face? - 'PED: Re: Can Apple build an AI with a human face? I hope so! Because the face in the pic you used to illustrate this post is DEFINITELY not human! 🙂'
  • Gary Morton on As our 2027 price target contest ends, here's where the pros stand for 2026 - 'Please put me in for $357.6 April 2027.'
  • Bart Yee on As our 2027 price target contest ends, here's where the pros stand for 2026 - 'Exactly, IMO, at least a $30-35 shortfall.'
  • Lenny Sachs on As our 2027 price target contest ends, here's where the pros stand for 2026 - 'Philip, please put me at 318 as two of us were at 317. Thanks'
  • Philip Elmer-DeWitt on As our 2027 price target contest ends, here's where the pros stand for 2026 - '“If it wasn’t for a certain someone, Apple would be at $300+.” Last year Mister Unmentionable almost cost me even more. “Liberation (tariff) Day” was April 2, and the next day Apple sank to $202 and change.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Ten minutes out from today’s opening bell and Apple us up $1.11 at $247.74. The major market indexes are all up over 1% as we head toward today’s market open. Let’s see what happens in early trading…'
  • Bart Yee on IDC: Smartphone sales will grow next year - 'Just to provide a bit more detail from this IDC report: From IDC article tables: 4Q25 Shipped – Share – 4Q24 Shipped – Share – YoY 1. Apple 84.6M 25.1% 77.9M 23.7% 8.6% 2. Samsung 61.2M 18.2% 51.7M 15.7% 18.3% 3. Xiaomi 37.8M 11.2% 42.7M 13.0% -11.5% 4. vivo* (tie) 27.0M 8.0% 27.1M 8.2% -0.5% 4. OPPO* (tie) 26.9M 8.0% 25.0M 7.6% 7.4% Others 99.5M 29.6% 104.8M 31.8% -5.0% (Remember Huawei, Motorola, Google, etc. buried in here) Total 336.9M 100.0% 329.1M 100.0% 2.4% Using updated data from CY2025 Q4 reports. Apple iPhone revenue $85.27B Shipped 84.6M ASP $1008 Samsung MX revenue $28.3T KRW, assume >typical 77%, assign 81% for smartphones = 22.9T = $14.98B Shipped 61.2M ASP $245 (Note 2025 Q4 MX income was up 13% YoY, but DOWN 16% from Q3, so Q3 (Z Foldables intro) is Samsung’s 2nd biggest revenue quarter behind Q1 (Galaxy S and A series intros). Xiaomi Q4 2025 smartphone revenue = ¥44.3B = $6.41B Shipped 37.8M ASP = ¥1172 or $170 For the year: 1. Apple 251.7 20.0% 234.3 18.9% 7.4% 2. Samsung 241.2 19.1% 223.5 18.1% 7.9% 3. Xiaomi 165.2 13.1% 168.4 13.6% -1.9% 4. vivo 103.9 8.2% 101.2 8.2% 2.6% 5. OPPO 102.0 8.1% 104.8 8.5% -2.7% Others 397.7 31.5% 405.2 32.7% -1.8% (Remember Huawei, Motorola, Google, etc. buried in here) Total 1261.7 100.0% 1237.5 100.0% 2.0% For Apple CY2025 iPhone revenue = $225.72B Shipped per IDC 251.7M ASP $897 Per Omdia 240.6M (10M discrepancy) ASP $938 For Samsung total MX 2025 revenue 126.5T KRW = $83.0B assign 79% gives $65.6B Shipped per IDC 241.2M (Omdia says 239.1, very close) ASP ~$272 Xiaomi total smartphone revenue = ¥186.4B = $27.0B Shipped per IDC 165.2M (Omdia says 165.4M, very close) ASP ¥1127 gives $163'
  • Greg Lippert on As our 2027 price target contest ends, here's where the pros stand for 2026 - 'If it wasn’t for a certain someone, Apple would be at $300+. Costing Philip a lotta sub $$$!'
  • Bart Yee on As our 2027 price target contest ends, here's where the pros stand for 2026 - 'Phil, put me down for $303, just because of macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, whereas I think without those it’s at least $323. I’ll post the same in the March 23 post.'
  • Bart Yee on 7th Apple 3.0 price target contest: Tuesday March 31, 2026 edition - 'Phil, put me down for $303, just because of macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, whereas I think without those it’s at least $323. I’ll post the same in the March 31 post.'
  • Greg Lippert on Anything's vibe coding app gave Apple bad vibes - 'Are they only gonna block vibe but allow you to use AI with Claude, OpenAI and Apple sanctioned tools? I think it could be a problem if they only allow their solution. The AI genie is out of the bottle.'
  • Steven Philips on Anything's vibe coding app gave Apple bad vibes - '“Danger! Will Robinson.”'
  • Steven Philips on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Not holding my breath.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple click bait from the Motley Fool a few days early - 'Reporting everything would fly in the face of their predetermined agenda.'
  • Richard Overstreet on Apple as AI distributor - 'Hi little bit of a non sequitur here, but in the ballpark. I highly recommend the documentary ”The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist” . Wife and I saw at the theater yesterday. It’s very thoughtful & accessible and I think it could be a great jumping off point for discussion between family & friends about the huge changes that are coming.'
  • Gary Morton on Apple click bait from the Motley Fool a few days early - 'These types of analyses typically neglect to mention that Apple’s EPS growth in the last quarter was 17%, gross margins are increasing, and EPS growth is accelerating. Oh and Apple is NOT spending 80%-120% of its annual free cash flow on data center buildouts. Just some additional facts(food) for thought.'
  • Romeo Esparrago on 9to5Mac is hot for Siri - '“Too hot to trot now, baby” – Commodores I can’t wait to test Siri’s voice commands against my HomeKit devices to see how enhanced & complex my commands can be without having to create scripts first in ShortCuts.'
  • Gregg Thurman on 9to5Mac is hot for Siri - 'I think it’s a good one. So does Google. That’s probably one of the reason Google is helping Apple to improve SIRI. Google knows how important the default position is. They even fork out billions to get it.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Apple as AI distributor - 'The new Siri better shine, however, or there will be hell to pay.” I agree, even though in reality it won’t matter, as iPhone users will have the same access to AI, with the same ease and same number of clicks. And yet, it will matter, especially to those who have been following the drama for the last 2 years. I lot of people have stuck their necks out for Apple, and if it gets delayed again, they will be mad.'
  • Rodney Avilla on IDC: Smartphone sales will grow next year - 'I wonder how many assumptions one has to make to solve for all the variables in the formula that comes up with a number in 1 yr? 2 yrs? 5 yrs?'
  • Rodney Avilla on Apple subsidiary fined for reporting its error - 'My question to Reuters, should they want to go below the surface- what would have been the fine if Apple tried to hide it, and was caught? I would assume that the cynical government regulators will look at this self-reporting as an attempted diversion from other violations.'
  • Rodney Avilla on 9to5Mac is hot for Siri - 'Siri app could easily become one of the most popular iPhone apps” I remember when Apple Maps came out, with warts and all. Yet, in less than 1 year a majority of iPhone users was using it. Most users use the default, even if they have been told it’s not the best. Now will smart Siri have short comings? Yes, but not as much as Maps. Apple has had plenty of time to undergo a couple of wart treatments, so it should be more polished than most new releases. Adaption rate is going to be high. That’s my prediction.'
  • David Emery on Apple as AI distributor - 'Each of us is -independent-. We do not depend on corporate overlords, on click counts, on ratings (hah!), etc. Sure, there’s an echo chamber here. But people here listen to the echos, and make independent assessment on what we’re hearing. That being said, I do miss the contrarians we’ve had, before they got too extreme…. They brought needed balance. I’ve tried to point out where I thought the echo here had some risks or contrary noises. (That’s particularly true on the regulatory risk and Apple’s exposure to same, treated from what I tried to take as an independent perspective to view the complaint with fresh eyes.)'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple as AI distributor - 'I have to ask: are we, as a group, that much smarter than everyone else? Why is it, without the resources available to WS and the media, that we can see this, and they can’t?'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple as AI distributor - '” Everyone else is kind of building it in flight.” Or it could be said that everyone else is marching to Apple’s vision.'
  • Bill Fouche on Apple subsidiary fined for reporting its error - 'There is nothing inherently wrong or suspicious about a regulatory authority enforcing a regulation. Good on Apple for confessing their error. Regulations tend to be strict-liability prohibitions that do not require the government to prove wrongful intent. If a US taxpayer unintentionally underpays his taxes and discovers his or her mistake at a later time, they are obligated to file an amended return and pay up, including penalties for late payment. “I did not mean to” does not get you off the hook. It is likely the same with Apple in this case. There is really nothing to see here. If Apple legal kicks into gear over this $500,000, we may conclude from this that their legal department does not have enough to do. (And this I doubt.)'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Apple subsidiary fined for reporting its error - 'The next headline from Eddie will report this situation as: “Apple supports Russia in War against Ukraine.”'