Gregg Thurman on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q3 2026 - 'I’m more concerned about Apple underestimating required component orders. That’s a big lapse in production planning. If I’m thinking about this correctly Apple left a lot of money on the table (unsatisfied demand) and the post earnings selloff was warranted, although the shortfall will be made up for in future quarters (December quarter?). I’m also thinking about structure of the price increases. The iPhone is a consumer product, in that it isn’t primarily a product development machine. An iPhone will be used to consume content, and the big content, the killer App, to be consumed will be Apple Intelligence enhanced. That means the more iPhone 18 handsets sold will translate to greater sales of Apple Intelligence enhanced Apps via the App Store, all at a time when Android doesn’t have a competing on device strategy. You want usable AI, you buy an iPhone, and Apple is trying to influence your decision by maintaining the price of your flagship product while everyone else is being forced to raise their flagship prices and not being able to offer AI enhanced Apps. It’s a convoluted theory, but I can see it as one Apple would use to establish Apple Intelligence as the leader in mobile AI (70% of the market).'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - 'During July I made 13 small parcel sales of AAPL, each at a new ATH at the time of trade. For my 14th trade I bought the dip for the first time. Just a small amount at $311 to go into my long term holdings account. I got a feeling 2036 Darren will be very thankful and say “why didn’t you buy more?”.'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q3 2026 - 'Yeah, I was not expecting the tariff rebates. Without them, my earnings estimate would have been spot on. Glad to see Apple put the rebates to good use.'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - 'I can’t post images here, but laughing at a screenshot of my conversation with a friend yesterday — “AAPL $343! $320 tomorrow after hours?” I managed to get a screen shot of it at exactly $320.00 (on its way down), too. Did I trade it? Of course not! If I had, it never would have happened! 😀'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - 'Robert Said: “As Roger reported in a different topic, Apple deployed $25.8 billion for repurchases in the quarter, including $10 billion for use of ASRs. This is the first time ASRs have been deployed since FY2023.” But Roger only said: “Roger Schutte said: “Buybacks were switched back on…$25B in the quarter.” I listened intently to the call and Kevan did not mention use of an ASR for share repurchases, only that $25.8B was spent. I also could not find any mention of a ASR expenditure in the published consolidated financial report. Robert, do you have any link or advance copy of the Q3 2026 10Q that notes an ASR was used? I wouldn’t be surprised but I’m not sure that it was, given that Apple only spent $11M on share repurchases last quarter and the April share prices were particularly low, ripe to be bought. Of note, the diluted shares for the quarter used in EPS calculations was 14.714 billion shares. From the Q2 2026 10Q, it notes that as of April 17, 2026, outstanding shares were 14.687B shares. That suggests that despite buying $25.8B worth of shares over the quarter, there must have been the same number of shares plus 27M additional shares issued, probably in stock compensation. I’ve not seen outstanding shares actually be higher in the next quarter. However, the total was lower than the share number used for the Q2 EPS calculation, 14.725B.'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - 'Maybe… I’m inclined to think that the supply problems will continue into next year, both for Apple silicon and for memory components. But it’s better to have unfilled demand, than to have unwanted surpluses!'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q3 2026 - 'We are doing some of this on asymco.com. More data to come soon.'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q3 2026 - 'Hi PED, Is it possible to track the performance of the analysts based on their quarterly predictions?'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - 'I agree David! They still got an increased quantity of SoC’s from TSMC to be plus 22% on iPhone and 29% on Mac. I’ll have to relisten to the call for direct comments but they are NOT in supply/demand balance after 10 months. 2 nanometer chips for iPhone 19 Pro and Ultra + M6 are in mass production and can’t come soon enough to reduce demand for the SoC’s they’re short on. Definitely not doomed though ANALysts will tell us all about it tomorrow.'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - '@Fred “ 29% gain for the Mac speaks volumes. More so when Tim talked about Mac displacing Windows and Chrome in EDU; plus Morgan Stanley buying 20,000 iPhones for security.” The edu numbers are what I’ve been waiting to see – especially if it means displacing the “competition.” Good job Neo!'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - '@David John Ternus did answer one question that was directed to him.'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - 'Even so, Raj, let’s recall that so-called “investors” and “traders” knew all about that. And yet – the stock went to an ATH of $344.57, touched $5 T market cap, and broke past a 40 P/EPS. WTF, unless you think it was all some kind of scam. Which it isn’t: Volume today barely hit average. This is not many shares locking in profit because they don’t know bull droppings about Apple and AAPL, and an attempt by short term traders to “swing” the needle towards negative so they can sell high, buy low, rinse, and repeat. Note that Max Pain was down to $330/share. It’s well below that right now, so Max Pain has swung seriously towards being a positive magnet lifting AAPL tomorrow. It has ever been thus.'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - '29% gain for the Mac speaks volumes. More so when Tim talked about Mac displacing Windows and Chrome in EDU; plus Morgan Stanley buying 20,000 iPhones for security. Tim reported Mac Studio clusters running frontier models. Apple customers fund the infrastructure, versus hyper scalers burning through every $B then can get – debt, investment, cash flow. This only goes forward, no switching back.'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - 'I’m starting to wonder if “short sell the rumor, buy/cover on the news” is not a genuinely viable strategy. Perhaps there is an options angle to do that at lower total input risk. The experts among us surely know….'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - 'Remind me when an earnings report and conference call are not a buying opportunity for Apple shareholders? Asking for a friend 😉'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - 'True. But in the past few quarters Apple was on a roll raising their guidance higher and higher each quarter and now suddenly a huge step down. As Kevan said in the last question, memory costs are a huge reason for next quarter’s lower GM and quite likely, it’s the lack of memory availability that’s solely causing the supply constraint issues. For Apple and long-term investors and also buyers of leaps, this drop in stock price will turn out to be a great opportunity because once things return to near-normal, we’ll be flying again.'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - 'I need to step away from the call at this time. I’ll be back with commentary later today.'
