Gregg Thurman on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'Tommo’s dead horse has been putrid smelling for a while. It’s past time it should be buried.'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'According to my screen Apple shares just turned positive for the day. So while not an overwhelming positive response a good bounce from the negative response at the beginning of the day. So maybe the knee jerk reaction from this morning is fading.'
on Apple's 2nd largest acquisition is a startup with tech to read micro facial movements - 'Apple paid $3 Billion for Beats. Now $2 Billion for this company. From what I can tell this flew under the radar screen. One article mentioned that the same person had previously sold his prior company to Apple about 10 or 12 years earlier for around $345 Million.'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'Apple has been moving up all morning after being down around $5 near the beginning. Here’s my theory and it has the scientific foundation more in alignment with just a hunch. So I bought into Service Now (NOW) the same day (yesterday) that Apple reported earnings after the bell. The NOW CEO was on Cramer 1-28-2026 talking about his company after it reported very good earnings then was tanking in AH. He approved (Along with the Board) a $5 Billion buyback for 2026 and said they are coming in with $2 Billion of that immediately in the next couple of days when they’re allowed to start their buyback. Took a 14% hit to open trading on the 29th and I bought near the bottom. Just as I did with Apple back on January 3, 2019 after the China miss in December, 2018 and Trump’s tariffs tweets drove Apple down. Today, NOW has moved up quite nice nicely and ironically Apple has been moving back up to the water level as well. Apple will probably start buying back shares Tuesday morning to avoid any SEC issues and right now the shorts are being given their last opportunity to “cover’ before the stock breaks out higher next week. Here is the Short position for the past few reporting periods according to Nasdaq: Short interest was (129.458) Million as of November 28, 2025. 2.939 Short interest was (122.035) Million as of December 15, 2025. 2.949 Short interest was (112.732) Million as of December 31, 2025. 2.707 Short interest was (113.576) Million as of January 15, 2026. 2.59 Just like NOW was waiting to come into the market, and apparently already has from what I can ascertain, so too will Apple on probably Tuesday. A few days after their earnings were reported. Wednesday at the latest. My $.02 based on nothing more than an educated guess in conjunction with Friday options, a minuscule AH session, and the short % to allow covering before what I believe will be the positive earnings rocket fuel to propel Apple back to another series of all time highs in the next 60 days. Again, just a hunch. But the formula seems to be playing out with NOW under somewhat similar circumstances. Have a great weekend and looking forward to next week. BTW, with these record earnings and FCF just reported, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that the next buybacks tranche will be either $110 Billion or $115 Billion when earnings are reported in April. With another penny increase in the dividend.'
on Apple's 2nd largest acquisition is a startup with tech to read micro facial movements - 'Well, I jinxed it! Hopefully it’s just on its “normal” pattern of dropping even on good news, then slowly moving up. I hate the waiting.'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'Morning, Greg. And this is a surprise because…? Last I heard, options can still impact stock prices, and options players like Tommo have nothing but disdain for stodgy old businesses – or stodgy old people….'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'Morning, Bill. Upvoted. TSLA reminds me of AMZN, which for years was given a P/E of infinity (if you have zero net income, that’s what your trailing P/E will look like). What can one say? Musical chairs and Ponzi schemes will always generate some winners – for a while.'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'Oh Tommo! Keep beating that dead horse. Here’s his newest post headline. “Apple/AAPL Q2: Another “Blowout” Quarter From A Company That’s Quietly Running Out Of Future”'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'Upvoted, Daniel. And I know folks are tired of my explaining why buybacks are preferable to dividends, but it’s days like this that underscore the advantage to buybacks. That Apple is trading far below their actual value is nothing new. IMO, they’re deservedly worth a high thirties, if not a low fourties, trailing valuation. Which means that, after 12 YEARS of buybacks, Apple’s buybacks are still very much worth it to long term Apple investors…assuming you don’t just want more dividends so you can invest in something other than Apple…. And yes, as Apple re-enters the open market, the valuation of AAPL will inevitably go up, barring black swans (which, truth be told, are gathering in unprecedented numbers….).'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - '“Max pain stays at $257.50…” Watch this number, or whatever Max Pain is at EOD. It’s really as simple as that, IMO. Personally, I’m absolutely fine with this. We are sitting on, for us, a huge cash position that i call our “Trump Era Insurance Plan”. We don’t need to sell for quite aome time. And in the meantime, Apple quite literally invests for us by shrinking the float at bargain basement prices. And when we hit the next ATH, we’ll top that T.E.I.P. up, and so on. In the meantime, the cash is in a retirement fund drawing sufficient interest to at least stay up with inflation. What’s not to like?'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'Like you, I dabbled in some calls Oct, Nov, Dec expecting upward price movement. Didn’t work. However last week when AAPL was at its low I bought some calls which doubled in a day. I sold them pre-earnings because I didn’t trust the market. Guess I was right, for once.'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'Somehow this stock trading result fits into this quarter’s earnings response by the market. Very few companies have been rewarded with upward price action even on great results. (and there are always exceptions) Now we are trying to make an explanation as to why. My explanation is the market is not always linear or logical about its reactions. In this case it seems like the people who emphasize the potential negative somehow are given more weight than the actual (dare I say it) blockbuster results. The lack of trust in Apple’s ability to manage profit margin in the face of ram costs, the intentional ignoring that Apple AI improvements are coming (maybe even as soon as next month according to some), the concern that the replacement cycle for Iphone has lengthened again are but a few worries. Most analysts have increased their price targets and some have even upgraded the stock. This has been and is being ignored in today’s price action. Rodney Dangerfield treatment of the analysts has been going on for a few months now. What I see is Apple is once again gearing up for a strong product cycle in 2026 and if they deliver as I think they will the stock price results will come as well. But the same old tired negatives don’t disappear no matter how many times Apple has avoided them. Don’t be surprised if the short term reaction is not the long term reaction.'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'If, maybe, possibly are doing a lot of heavy lifting in that piece, instead of listening to Apple, who barring black swan events is never wrong and usually conservative.'
on Apple's 2nd largest acquisition is a startup with tech to read micro facial movements - 'If the amount paid ($2 Billion) for Q.ai is an indication of its perceived value by and to Apple, then this purchase figures very highly in Apple’s future plans. At that price those must be some pretty lofty plans.'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'until the market wakes up and smells the roses. The market is not currently rational. I made a mistake thinking I saw an opening last October. I made another mistake thinking the market would react positively to very positive results coupled with strong guidance. I was right, sorta, to limit my exposure with a small test. The test is over and the market has proven itself irrational. I’m out until rationality returns. I have no idea when that might be (2028?).'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'Apple crushes earnings and gives high guidance, and the stock goes down 1% because the dominant message either ignores or denies what what said during the earnings call. Meanwhile Telsa reveals absolutely abysmal results – >40% decline in revenue, >60% decline in earnings, Elon having destroyed the companies markets, brand and reputation, and an operational P/E of >640 (excluding the value of emissions credits sales) – and the stock pops 4% for not being as bad as it could be, on the basis of Elon describing a completely fantastical and impossible new “plan” for robot cars and people that will never come true. My favourite is his surprise announcement that he “invested” $2 billion of shareholders’ money in his privately-held AI company, because it was the “only reasonable thing” to do after shareholders rejected a proposal in November for Tesla to invest in his privately-held AI company. LOL We’re deep in the meme-stock well.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'Bart, As Fred said, thanks Bart for running the numbers. Bart makes some excellent points about how important the growing installed base is to Apple. I am guessing it is something that the underwater analysts are missing.'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'Fred, why is Apple down…maybe we just need to wait for today’s options to close. Things might be different next week.'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'Hab, Tim’s comment was about Meta and their lack of privacy controls. And Tim told us last night that ads will be increasing in the App Store soon, so he is very much in that business – just Apple does it with privacy in mind.'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'Oh well, more shares retired for every repurchase dollar until the market wakes up and smells the roses.'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'While Tim wouldn’t likely have answered, were I an analyst my question would have been: “Given Google’s voracious appetite for data–and the attendant use of it for targeting advertising–can Apple maintain its stance on privacy?” Tim was once asked about advertising, He replied, “I wouldn’t be in that business.”'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - '“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” –Napoleon Bonaparte'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'Why is AAPL down? Don’t bother wondering. Think long term. Look at Apple’s growth in emerging markets, the number of products and geo’s where “new to” was 50%, the increase in iPhone ASP (Thanks Bart), Services, and buybacks. Joseph’s beach ball metaphor comes to mind.'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'I thought I also heard on the CC that inventories of the iPhone 17 were very low. With continued high demand for the new iPhones, my guess is that things stay constrained for this quarter as well. I would also guess that Apple will end the present quarter with less than their usual inventory of phones so that will not be in balance until at least the next quarter and maybe later. All that speaks to good numbers for the rest of the year. The naysayers are probably breaking out anything negative to try to talk the stock down right now. Memory prices(even though margins guided to over 48%), selling your soul to google(which most of these people are invested in already) and any other excuses they can think of are being trotted out. If the naysayers want to allow Apple to continue to buyback its shares at a bargain price, who am I to disagree with them.'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'The job of stupid (intentional or otherwise) is to create opportunity. Don’t fight the FED. Don’t fight the tape. Don’t fight the stupid.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'Two positives (adding to other positives already cited): The low-end PTs have gone up, helping raise the average PT. Apple’s long-term strategy in emerging markets pays off. And this will continue.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'Thanks again, Bart. The growth in EU shows Apple transcend the politics, including what is generated on our side, and the EU regulators that cast Apple in the role of predator. Real people just love Apple.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'If he really believed in his prognostication, he ought to change his name to Tim Short.'


