Bill Donahue on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'The clearest sign of market confidence on all the AI hyperscaling and compute leasing: spiking CDS prices! LOL'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Thanks for the context on the market’s “wisdom”, Joe, and pointing to Tesla for a P/E that is disconnected from anything to do with financial and growth reality! Compared to that, Apple’s P/E is rock solid and ultra-conservative!'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'I’m looking through the carnage on the Street from today’s pull down in prices. Meanwhile, Apple closed down $4.28 or 1.23% today to finish the week at $344.63. Apple remains up year-to-date 26.77% and up 27.01% over the most recent six months. The shares are off 0.89% over the past five days.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Bill, it sounds like you are wired a lot like me. I consistently time my retreats to safety well – but I have never once bought back in at a good time. Consequently, I am standing pat in the face of what feels like a high probability of being on the brink of a crash… oh well hopefully I live long enough to profit from the recovery!'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Yikes! I blame it on this 80-year-old brain…. Thanks, Charles! And apologies, Horace!'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'With all due respect to Horace…it’s Dediu, not Deidu.'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'One interesting point about the AI bubble — credit fault swaps have increased a lot for all the main players, suggesting lots of people are worried about an inability to pay back debt, so they are hedging against that. Meanwhile, Apple’s CDS are 5-10 x times cheaper, signifying that the markets do not think Apple will have as hard a time over the next 5 years.'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Upvoted for your shout out re unified memory. Apple’s silicon makes the memory in their device MORE valuable relative to others. Together with Apple’s upgrade financing and carrier financing, memory upgrades cost dimes/day.'
on Apple secretly buys an agent - 'So now even Apple has a secret agent. 🙂 Might help with their trade secrets trial. 🙂'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Regarding cash flow, Horace Deidu made this pithy comment on Nota Bene yesterday: “The P/E ratio tell another story: As cash flow evaporates and goes into reverse, Google is in the low teens, Microsoft is at 29 while Apple, whose cash flow is accelerating, is at 40. This is a perfect reversal of a decade ago.” It’s not a coincidence that earlier in the year Apple finally abandoned its goal to reach net zero cash…. Oodles of dry powder, as far as the eye can see!'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Morning, Jonny. Upvoted. My 2 cent’s worth: AI is here to stay, just like unified memory, because it solves a problem. But a definite ROI will also go to the “merchants” that, as during the California Gold Rush, supply the equipment to mine that “gold”. Bottom line: If the price of pickaxe handles goes up, pickaxes will still get sold. Just as importantly, with the advent of open (source) weighted models, the “bet” on traditional “gold” mining just got undercut by the sudden availability of something better than pickaxes.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Moments like these make or break your investments’ progress. Good luck!'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Morning, Bill. upvoted. That said: It’s like grades: Once you get in the track of studying to the point of getting A’s, it’s easier to maintain A’s Apple’s valuation WILL drop several percent overnight due to both YOY net income and buybacks. That creates “daylight” for valuation to grow to 40+ yet again. Apple is not a Tesla, which speculation keeps way over its skis. It’s long distance vs short sprint, or tortoise vs hare. It’s taken 13 years of buybacks and net profit growth for Apple to literally earn the respect it’s now getting. Apple has done its homework, and thus earned its present grade. And just like good grades, once you’ve put in the effort to get there, it’s easier to stay there – and no harder to climb even higher!'
on BofA: Record (and lenient) carrier trade-ins are a tailwind for Apple - 'They are buying the phones at a discounted rate from Apple and reselling them at full price. They recoup that $$$ easily over the cost of the contract.'
on Apple secretly buys an agent - '”How is it that we just now learned of this?” I read about yesterday, I think, on Apple News.'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'I think so, but it’s still very high, and I’d say more priced for growth that Apple hasn’t demonstrated in a very long time than based on today’s reality. That said, it’s a far better investment than most of the other tech companies, and all of the ones heavily into LLM-based AI, so it may benefit from a flight to safety. To be determined! That said, my desire to sleep at night these days is satisfied more by carrying more cash than it is by a fear of missing out on short-term stock increases.'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - '@Bill Presumably as higher revenue is announced Monday then the P/E will come down a little.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Upvoted Bill. I think you have chosen wisely. I have also moved some of my investments to cash for the reasons you have stated but not as boldly as you. I share your fear of things not going well at the midterms. I only hope I am wrong.'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Like you, I’ll be happy to be wrong with my decision to take profits on AAPL. The high P/E is going to be tough to maintain, especially if the rest of tech co’s that are more exposed to AI hyperscaling and circular financing start to landslide in a way that sweeps everything down. It seems like most investors, investment managers, investor analysts, and political leaders are completely oblivious to the financial house of cards that is the LLM-based AI boom. So if it starts to falter, there will be a lot of shock and panic, and margin calls or options losses that drive even more liquidizing of non-AI holdings for a lot of people. I see a bloodbath coming. I hope I’m wrong… but hope and a couple of dollars will buy me a cup of coffee.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'I”m now back to ~50% cash, having sold off a bunch of everything, including ~1/3rd of my AAPL. I was at ~25% cash until this week, but new revelations out this week about the even more insane costs and losses associated with datacentre hyperscaling and AI compute leasing has me thinking the AI reckoning is beginning. Or maybe better “wreckoning”. And then of course there’s the midterms on Tuesday and what’s going to happen after that. I don’t see things going well, one way or the other. Apple’s at its ATH, so I’m happy taking some profits. If it goes up after reporting on Monday, I’m fine not catching all of it. My nervousness and markets and the scale of denial about AI financials and what Trump will do over the next two years are now at the point they were in the December before the pandemic. But this time I’m thinking I may sit substantially on the sidelines for a lot longer.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Sounds like investors are doing what you suggest. Investing wisely. Apple is up – slightly.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'On Wednesday CNBC ran a story on how the Magnificent 7 is no more. I’m not sure it ever existed as anything more than a collection of names. The results from Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft this week illustrate how different the enterprises are from one another not only in performance but in structure and approaches to the markets in which they operate. Intel’s greater than $25 drop this morning (off more than 27%) is a reminder speculation carries risks. There will be spectacular winners in the AI race. There are will be some big losers. Investors must choose wisely. Apple is now up $0.11 on the day! '
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Guess everyone read the article about the chipmakers’ revenge on Apple in the WSJ.. Going to be sweet when the AI spigot turns off. Apple will then REALLY be able to turn the screws. What the article didn’t say was that without Apple making them grow over the years, they would never have been able to benefit from the AI chip boomspend.'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'With a PE of around 40 as well as tech coming down from the heavens, I am hoping that Apple can keep its present gains and not give back too much. The numbers from Evercore look real nice and hopefully, Apple can meet and surpass them. No matter what, there may be some profit taking, especially right before Election Day. Some people may want to lock in profits. Edit-I will be very happy to be wrong though.'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Chip costs and FX will be a drag on GM. FX especially for Services.'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'GM is what I’ll watch for. How much impact will chip costs have, given the price raises Apple has put in place?'


