Recent Comments

  • Gregg Thurman on Look at the cool things Nvidia is doing with the Apple Vision Pro (video) - 'I watched the interview twice. The second made NVidia’s development sound more like a Vision Pro converter box for Windows. Makes me wonder what kind of license (and fees) Apple got for helping Nvidia to make SpatialOS work on Windows. Of course the “Box” will sit between the host desktop and the 3D rendering device. So it’s a bolt on. And it will require a new class of Nvidia processor. It sounds cool what they are trying to accomplish, but as an intermediary device it will be expensive. Did I interpret this correctly?'
  • Rodney Avilla on Mark Gurman's Apple misses and hits (two lists) - 'I probably won’t for the same reason PED did not- because we both agree with you that it is a trivial question and not deserving of the time required to do so, though the results would be interesting.'
  • Steven Philips on Mark Gurman's Apple misses and hits (two lists) - 'I and Gregg and probably many others – especially light of the previous article on NVIDIA and AVP – hope they’re both totally wrong! 🙂 Let’s see what actually influences John Ternus.'
  • Shamwil Al-Amin on Look at the cool things Nvidia is doing with the Apple Vision Pro (video) - 'If anyone is a listener of Mac Break Weekly, Alex Lindsay formally of the show who was a big supporter of AVP is now an Apple employee. I believe he is in developer relations related to AVP.'
  • Alessandro Luethi on Mark Gurman: What no more net-cash-zero means for John Ternus - 'Don’t worry, John will tern us around!'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Morning, Gregg. “Frankly, I think “PE” and all variants of it should be put to death.” As always, we will have to agree to disagree. The inevitability of Apple’s future is written in its past. IMO. And reading those particular tea leaves has stood us in good stead up until now. I see no good reason to doubt them going forward. Also, I don’t at all disagree that “ TTM EPS increased as it did because the addition of last week’s quarterly EPS was substantially higher than the quarterly EPS it replaced.”.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is red - 'You are thinking this through too hard. TTM EPS increased as it did because the addition of last week’s quarterly EPS was substantially higher than the quarterly EPS it replaced. Valuation (just another descriptor for Investor Sentiment) in this case is a flawed metric. Investors buy the future but “PE” is based on trailing earnings. To get a meaningful numeric for Valuation (or whatever you want to call it) you must use forward EPS. But those are estimates from a couple dozen analysts, each with their own agenda, make them much more difficult (work) to use. By and large, people are lazy, so they use TTM. The problem then arises that TTM is a measure of past performance (the flaw in Share Price divided by TTM) not future performance. For me, the most important metric is PTM (Projected Twelve Months). The resultant “Valuation” number more accurately reflects Investor Sentiment. Frankly, I think “PE” and all variants of it should be put to death. Replace it with a chart reflecting consensus future EPS, and measure the slope. Is EPS for the next 12 months going up, or down, and by how much? This calculation takes into account diluted share count expansion or contraction. You no longer have to justify changes in share count caused by “buybacks”. Think of it this way: Current multiples reflect current values based on past performance. As an investor I don’t care about how a company performed in the past, I want to know how it’s going to perform in the future. Using that reasoning, the higher the multiple is, the higher Investor Sentiment for the future is. And it takes time for Investor Sentiment to adjust to the new reality. “Where’s the beef” comes to mind.'
  • Robert Stack on Mark Gurman's Apple misses and hits (two lists) - 'Then I suggest you do so and let us know the results…I did suggest asking ChatGPT for a second opinion. Do you routinely ask for four different medical opinions before you’ll move forward on something? Perhaps if it’s major, but for a question as trivial as this?'
  • Rodney Avilla on Mark Gurman's Apple misses and hits (two lists) - 'Mac Rumors has claimed working on the next generation AVP headset has stopped, although an update on the present headset may occur in 1-2 years. From what I can find, Mark Gurman has not been definitive recently on his AVP predictions for a next generation AVP or any more updates, maybe because he was so wrong the last time (2025) he predicted it’s demise.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Mark Gurman's Apple misses and hits (two lists) - 'Not sure if asking AI (Perplexity) is considered “real analysis”. Asking 3 or 4 AI apps, and then checking their accuracy, to me, would be real analysis.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'And that is why AAPL continually operates like a yo-yo. Although, since buybacks began, the yo-yo has moderated substantially, as the percentage of long term AAPL investors has decreased and the percentage of traders (as shown in the decreasing split-adjusted trading volumes over the last 12 years) has decreased.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Check out the P/E valuation at $276.50. Ergo, Thursday’s close of ~$271/share saw a valuation of ~35.5, and ADDING about $5 to the price dropped Apple’s valuation by about half a percent!! Sound contradictory? P/E is actually the price divided by the average of the last 4 quarter’s EPS. That went up a lot as of last week’s earning’s call, for two reasons: (1) Although averaging 4 quarters of EPS understates the actual change in value per share (by misrepresenting the momentum of increasing net profit), it was still an overall increase. (2) In a company that continually shrinks the stock count, the actual change in value per share (cash being given a value of close to zero by investors and traders), is likewise misrepresented but that just drives up EPS. The combined result, however, of increasing net income and reducing stock is still significant, even as it under-represents the actual amount of increased value per share. So in Apple’s case, the Price/Averaged Earnings Per Share drops precipitously, although not as precipitously as it would if the actual net income were divided by the actual share count. But in cases like this earnings call, that’s enough for the knee-jerk investors and traders to see a precipitously-dropping valuation, and begin to panic-sell – which, of course, in turn drops the now-locked-in P/E ratio to drop even further, and so forth. Which, from Apple’s POV and that of long term investors, is actually a positive, because it allows better bang per buck for AAPL purchases….'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Micron Technology sits atop the S&P 500 leaderboard as we approach the noon hour in New York. The shares are up 7.24% at $581.47. FedEx is off 9.15% this morning at $357.63 on fears of further disruption to the shipping/logistics market with the introduction of Amazon Supply Chain Solutions. UPS is also down over 9% at $97.42 on the news. Amazon is up $2.46 at $270.72. Apple is now off $3.29 or 1.17% at $276.85. Bernstein announced today an increase in its Apple price target to $350 from $340. Let’s see where afternoon trading takes shares prices…'
  • Robert Stack on Mark Gurman's Apple misses and hits (two lists) - 'Great idea for a post PED – thank you. It’s good to see some real analysis of Gurman’s hits and misses. Also a good example of a question that can be nicely addressed by Perplexity. Here’s a thought: If you asked ChatGPT the same question, would you get the same answers? Or even mostly the same answers? I’d try it myself, but I think its best if you would ask it exactly the same question you put to Perplexity.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Mark Gurman's Apple misses and hits (two lists) - 'Gurman posts far than the examples given here. But using these examples a pattern seems to emerge. When the claim is positive he seems to be correct. When the claim is negative he seems to be wrong. Hard to decisively characterize his posts according to my observation with such a limited data set, but there it is.'
  • Neal Guttenberg on Look at the cool things Nvidia is doing with the Apple Vision Pro (video) - 'In this case, since Apple seems to be first to the party and will probably be first to place significant orders if/when the AVP gets upgraded and then priced like an actual consumer device, hopefully Apple should get a discount on the chips compared to others. Again, hopefully, this should widen the moat for entry into spatial computing. I also wonder, with all the news that Gurman “breaks”, why he wasn’t the first to break this story. Maybe his sources are limited in their reach, maybe he mostly spews the obvious, or maybe he tries to stay away from news that is positive for Apple, or maybe some combination of all three. This should have been the perfect story for Gurman to break the news on. Or maybe he couldn’t run the story without putting his source(s) in jeopardy(to cover the bases and give him some benefit of the doubt).'
  • David Wilson on Premarket: Apple is red - 'I guess Apple is doomed again.'
  • Roger Schutte on Premarket: Apple is red - 'I think all those traded on May 1. Could it be insider trading by someone’s sons?'
  • Greg Bates on Look at the cool things Nvidia is doing with the Apple Vision Pro (video) - 'This makes clear that, while the device might not be selling, Apple and partners (Nvidia, others) are creating a category of spatial computing that Apple is likely deeply committed to regardless of the constraints that hinder the (for the moment) single device that accesses it. Those constraints will evolve, and other devices (glasses, for one) will join the category. AVP might die, the way the Apple II died. But just like the category of PCs boomed, so will spatial computing. And guess what company is poised to lead the way–again.'
  • Ben Gepp on Mark Gurman: What no more net-cash-zero means for John Ternus - 'Offshore wind off Mar-a-lago – blowing a lot of hot air there.'
  • Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Maximum-pain.com is working again. There’s a lot of money being exchanged in out-of-the-money $200 puts expiring on Friday. Any idea about who would want to sell these — or who would want to buy them?'
  • Bart Yee on Mark Gurman: What no more net-cash-zero means for John Ternus - 'Here’s a crazy thought. With just a reduction of a usual $25B repurchase allocation of one quarter, Apple could 1) bid $7B to takeover rights to MLB National Games, World Series, etc. for 7 or more years. 2) bid $3-5B/year for Fox’s NFL rights 3) bid $1B per year for NHL rights in the US, or more for that and Canada Apple would then leap into a large position for all these major sports. NBA would come next. All to grow Apple TV+ and to provide Vision Pro content.'
  • Greg Lippert on Look at the cool things Nvidia is doing with the Apple Vision Pro (video) - 'Cool stuff. Too bad AVP is DOA (sarcasm) Long live AVP.'
  • Greg Lippert on Mark Gurman: What no more net-cash-zero means for John Ternus - 'If this Iran, folly has taught us anything, it’s that we need to quadruple down on renewable energy. We need to stop needing the assets of these crazy regimes. Put solar over existing parking lots and move to electric vehicles. Soon we won’t need their oil. No money will choke them better than bombs.'
  • Greg Lippert on Mark Gurman: What no more net-cash-zero means for John Ternus - 'Yikes sounds like WWIII. If the pedo-in-chief hasn’t already started it.'
  • David Emery on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/4-5/8/26) - 'I’m not sure I understand the pessimism for Microsoft. If they can get past their marketing blunders, they have a large captive Windows audience where they can provide AI services. And that’s part of a broader, more diversified, revenue stream. p.s. Anyone else think GameStop buying eBay is absurd?'
  • David Emery on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/4-5/8/26) - 'Options: My Brain Hurts!'
  • Roger Schutte on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/4-5/8/26) - 'No, it hasn’t…it’s: ASYMCOPED30 https://asymco.com/membership-checkout/?pmpro_level=3&pmpro_discount_code=ASYMCOPED30 Kagi search is your friend.'
  • Charles A. on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/4-5/8/26) - 'The Apple 3.0 discount seems to now have expired.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Mark Gurman: What no more net-cash-zero means for John Ternus - 'For the foreseeable future Apple is likely to continue increasing its net income total each quarter on a year-over-year basis. Leaving behind the so-called “net cash neutral” objective eliminates the burden of explicitly accounting for the company’s net cash position on the quarterly cash return reports as a stated goal to diminish over time (it’s been eliminated on the most recent report released with the March quarter financials) or any expectation either the share repurchase program and/or the quarterly dividend will necessarily be increased in response to continuing increases in net income. There’s no reason to overthink this issue. Management has simply changed what had been a previously stated corporate goal.'