Bart Yee on Arete Research likes Apple's AI strategy (video) - 'My view is Apple will have a successful Foldables product, if successful means ~10-15M sold in the first year, adding to the current 18M-20M sold annually. IMO, a wide folding iPhone would not directly impact Android Flip sales – different clamshell format, cheaper price, specific use case and demographic that values thinner width and foldover-format. What it will do is cannibalize or create a conquest sale cut into current Android book and wide folding factor phone makers’ China market, w/following China share: #1Huawei (65%), #2 Honor (11%), #3 Samsung (7%) #4 Vivo (6%) #5 Xiaomi (4.4%), #6 Oppo (4%) #7 Motorola/Lenovo (<4%). If China Foldables sales were 7.62M in 3 quarters and hit it’s forecast 10M by year end, that could be a very ripe market for Apple disruption. I fully expect Apple to take significant Foldable share out of China to the tune of 5M or more in the first year to the detriment of Huawei’s dominant 65% share (6.5M sold), and leapfrogging Honor (1.1M), Samsung (0.7M), etc. China accounts for about 44% of total worldwide Foldables so it’s a very important market for Apple to make a solid impression on. Considering the very positive momentum Apple has this fiscal year in China, revenues up 33% in 1HFY25, Apple may hit a home run with well heeled Chinese if Apple has a unique format, unique colorway, competitive pricing on 2-3 memory configurations. Pricing will likely be at market or above and can be easily justified by memory costs and unique Apple design and format solutions. Of course, Apple must deliver clean functionality in an iOS tailored for this format. The Apple iFold could then become the very newest Apple Chinese status symbol in a rarified price range above $2000. A portion of the other 56% of Foldable sales come from the Asia Pacific (12-14%) (Korea, Japan, ROA) where Huawei, Honor and Samsung still predominate), Europe (Samsung, Honor), and the US (16-30%) currently dominated by Motorola Razr types (50%) and then Samsung, Google. LATAM is dominated by Motorola as well but is likely due to “lower” affordable price of Clamshell foldable Razr vs much high costs of book Foldables. Now many will say why pursue this when the total market for Androids has stalled or very slow growth over last 3 years at 15-20M total? Well, that is a niche market for Android because Premium and Ultra Premium Android buyers seem to be limited to about 75-80M total with the economic purchasing capability. But Apple’s demographic is much more economically capable and resilient, plus willing to spend for technology they are interested in. Sure, there’s tons of Apple user skeptics about a Foldable iPhone of any shape, size or format, and that’s OK, this new innovation is not made (nor priced) for everybody, it’s a niche but high technology product, exactly like Apple Vision Pro was and is. If my projections are even close, Apple only needs 10-15M sales in the first year to take a 50%+ market share, while only being ~6% of total iPhones sold. But, iFold also represents 15M x $2200 ASP = $33 billion in revenue. Would it cannibalize iPhone Pro Max sales? Sure, and if it cannibalized 15M Pro Max, it would only add $10-15 billion in additional revenue. So either take $10B, $15B or something less than $33B added to that year’s iPhone revenue. Tough choice for Apple to make for all that R&D, parts procurement, manufacturing and marketing effort. Timing wise the Memory crunch throws a wrench into the works but oh well. I’m sure Cook, Ternus, Parekh, Srouji have made their best decisions.'
on Apple competes with Apple - 'And adding, that such iPad terminal applications don’t require updates. They stay in service for a long time, meaning new sales, not upgrades, dominate this business. Analysts overlook this phenomenon of Apple’s growing IB in all categories.'
on Horace Dediu: How Apple can turn the memory crisis to its advantage - 'The “costs too much” sentiment is much less important than the “No single company should control that much”. Apple taking the low end of the phone market will negate the “Android sells more phones” antitrust defense. Be careful what you wish for!'
on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'Yowza! Apple supplier Corning is up over $20 today at $207.56 and is up about 30% over the last five days. The major indexes are all in the green as we approach the 3pm hour in New York. Apple is currently off $1.92 at $291.13 in part over persistent concerns about memory costs. About 60% of S&P 500 components are currently in the green on the day as we head toward the closing bell…'
on Horace Dediu: How Apple can turn the memory crisis to its advantage - 'Horace has a hypothesis that Apple could use this memory panic to go for the jugular and take over the low end of the market. I think this could well be likely, especially as the high-end smartphone market starts to level off. While everyone panics, Apple has a chance to make money and increase market share by using its institutional prowess. This is the reverse of the classic process — start at the low end which the big guys leave fallow, gain market share, and move up the revenue stream to force the big guys out of the market. Apple may be able to use the memory panic to shave a few points in margin and take over the market, with the Neo as the first volley. Get billions more into the ecosystem, and they will never leave. And then the customer moves up the tiered product system over time (not the company), buying better models to stay in the ecosystem. As Horace says: I’m just speculating now — that Apple is going to go for the jugular on the iPhone in a couple of years. The iPhone’s going to be $499. It’ll be as good as the best iPhone today. And they’re going to launch that against a landscape where everybody else is losing money at $800 a phone. And so they’ll just quit. I love it. [added edit] and this would also be a barrier to anti-consumer sentiment (I’m looking at you EU) that Apple charges way too much as a gatekeeper and having so much free cash flow. See, Apple is selling phones to help the consumer, not gouge them.'
on Excerpt from Geoffrey Cain's 'Steve Jobs in Exile' - 'I hate to suggest Zuck, but my sense is that he’d be a bit more vicious and lack the edge of humor (though I’m not sure if I should suggest that about Steve’s actions – even if I do kinda see it! 🙂 )'
on Mark Gurman: I'm right and Horace Dediu is wrong about Apple Vision Pro - 'My vote is that he makes shit up.'
on Apple competes with Apple - 'All I know is I’m now finally as good on Final Cut Pro on my M5 iPad Pro (which I got before the Neo debuted) as I am on my MacOS FCO (both current M4 Mac Mini and previous M3 MBP). However, the Neo seems to be preferred over the iPad Pro, per my queries, when using FCP as the comparative metric. And apparently the Neo is also lighter since I have my Magic Keyboard & Pencil’s weight to add to the IPad Pro.'
on Excerpt from Geoffrey Cain's 'Steve Jobs in Exile' - 'Steve was still a kid. And those times, they were definitely a-changin’. Self-inflicted wounds is how we grew….'
on Mark Gurman: I'm right and Horace Dediu is wrong about Apple Vision Pro - 'Jonny T said: “As a base, let us all agree that Apple Vision Pro has literally blown away everyone who has ever tried them. I continue to demonstrate mine and two years on people’s reaction are in essence the same as the day it came out” **Jonny, I absolutely agree! My wife and I each bought one when they came out and “blown away” describes the experience perfectly. For example, I must have watched “Encounter Dinosaurs” 30+ times. For anyone without access to an Apple Vision Pro you can get a small sample of the experience by looking at this video: https(colon)//www.youtube(dot)com/watch?v=31VkL_iPXkM'
on Mark Gurman: I'm right and Horace Dediu is wrong about Apple Vision Pro - 'As a base, let us all agree that Apple Vision Pro has literally blown away everyone who has ever tried them. I continue to demonstrate mine and two years on people’s reactions are in essence the same as the day it came out: 1. “OMG WOW!” 2. “This is nothing like I’ve seen before.” 3. “When are the affordable ones coming, I want one!” No surprise that it will take time to engineer that experience into lighter/affordable. No surprise that energy has been directed to Siri, which after those mistaken announcements, is way higher priority than Apple Vision Pro. Meanwhile AVP IS getting time to catch up with the needed component evolution. Two years, three years, whatever, nobody else will stand a chance against those AVP’s. PS The Gurman snitch versus Horace the deep thinker? What a joke…'
on Apple competes with Apple - '“”Why would you buy a $349 iPad and a $249 keyboard when you can just get a MacBook Neo – with double the storage?”” Because you want a touch screen. And guess what is coming this fall?'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/11-5/15/26) - 'Robert, Micron just touched $912B as I type this. LOL'
