Recent Comments

  • Steven Philips on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'I think leasing will catch on quickly! 🙂 It makes even more sense with the higher prices. Just like with cars.'
  • Roger Schutte on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'Apple will sell every iPhone 18 they can make just like it’s been for 10 months now with iPhone 17. I see no reason to not price Pro + Pro Max models with regular company margins.'
  • Daniel Epstein on Fortune jumps on Monday's Apple downgrade with both feet - 'If history repeats itself then this would appear to be a “huge” buying opportunity. It would be great if it is just a rhyme of the past. I am amazed how many people make assumptions on assumptions to make decisions. The worry contingent always seem to ignore the future benefits of Apple’s sales weeks before the announcements will make things clear.'
  • Alan Birnbaum on Fortune jumps on Monday's Apple downgrade with both feet - 'I think it’s called ‘vibe’ investing It will ‘Vibe’ you out !!'
  • Neal Guttenberg on Fortune jumps on Monday's Apple downgrade with both feet - 'Instead of doing any independent research, investigation or analysis, Fortune is now investing in a follow the leader type of journalism.'
  • James Hillhouse on Fortune jumps on Monday's Apple downgrade with both feet - 'Looking at a graph of AAPL, after Jobs’ death it topped at ~$12. At the latter part of 2012, AAPL was ~$21. How have AAPL analysts who push a sell or hold AAPL managed to keep their jobs over the decades? These analysts literally left wealth creation for their clients on the table. Nor do they appear to ever revise the methodology that formed the core of such erroneous analysis. Strange business from the perspective of an ex-engineer where failure is expected to be followed by post-mortem analysis and revision of faulty logic methodology.'
  • Greg Bates on Fortune jumps on Monday's Apple downgrade with both feet - 'Consider the business models: Fortune wants you to click on a story to spend a minute while they show you some ads. Apple wants you as a customer for life. Small wonder Fortune employs hysterical headlines. Sigh.'
  • Mordechai Beizer on Red Sox vs. Yankees on Apple Vision Pro - 'Looking forward to Yankees vs Red Sox. Haven’t had much use for my Vision Pro lately.'
  • William Baggs on Mark Gurman disputes the facts behind Jefferies' Apple downgrade - 'The usual FUD from the usual suspects. Guess many were underwater with the massive July surge.'
  • Bart Yee on Mark Gurman disputes the facts behind Jefferies' Apple downgrade - 'As always, there will be and should be multiple competing designs for eventual engineering studies and prototyping. After that, the designs are whittled down to a few promising ones that go on to further engineering for production and assembly testing. If production issues arise, they try to engineer solutions and iterative testing. If that doesn’t work out, the model is dropped back into archival status, waiting for a technical or process innovation to make it possible. Backup solutions are then pressed into testing as alternates, perfectly acceptable options usually, and they may prove easier to assemble and produce. A company like Apple isn’t going to make something just for the sake of making it, it’s got to be done with Apple Quality and Apple reliability, anything less should be delayed until those two goals are met.'
  • Bart Yee on Gene Munster ignores Jefferies' Apple downgrade (video) - 'Answer: they ALL can, if there’s a will and a platform to create for and stream to. Could you imagine 3D IMAX using Apple Vision Pro 3D technology and displays?'
  • Gregg Thurman on Gene Munster ignores Jefferies' Apple downgrade (video) - 'Ooooooh, 3D MLB. Can wider distribution of Vision Pro be far behind? Can 3D NCAA basketball be far behind that? Can industrial 3D use cases be far behind? Can 3D Formula 1…. Can 3D FIFA…'
  • Bart Yee on Is this what dented Apple in premarket trading Monday morning? - 'So no, I don’t agree with Jeffries’ Lee’s assessment and interpretation of what faces Apple. And although iPhone is a majority revenue maker for Apple, Services and now Macs are also revenue drivers with Wearables and iPads providing stable revenue streams. Frankly, is Samsung or Google able to follow suit? Huawei is a special case in China due to (government fanned) fervent patriotic buying and rightful pride in its accomplishments, but in reality, while Apple is in a tight race with Huawei for China smartphone sales volume now, Apple still handily leads in overall China revenue generation $64B vs $49B respectively for 2025 accounting for all products. Apple has been counted out before, and occasionally the war call if correctly, but that last only for a short while. Here, Apple has plenty of options for new products and upgrades for regular products such that sales and revenues can still grow.'
  • Bart Yee on Is this what dented Apple in premarket trading Monday morning? - 'So let me get this straight: 1) “Edison Lee is concerned about the outlook for the company’s iPhone, especially Apple’s ability to drive higher average selling prices (ASPs) over time.” Apple, who introduced the upper premium smartphone over $1000 with the iPhone X, and continued that with the Pro and Pro Max models, all selling better than prior models. And holding prices while simultaneously eliminating the lowest memory models, effectively increasing revenue. And ASP’s keep rising from upper $700’s to mid-$800’s to upper $800’s and now to low $900’s to low $1000’s while increasing total sales, all while holding profit eating promotions in check except China. Whereas Samsung followed suit, and now experiences early peaked sales of premium models followed by rapid declines at the 4-6 month mark, has to introduce less expensive FE models, and then forces costly promotion subsidized premium inventory to carriers and channel partners in later part of sales year, and while revenues continue, profitability goes to hell, culminating in a first time in history Q2 profit LOSS for the Samsung MX Mobile division. And likely more to come for the next 4-6 quarters. BTW, what does he think the Air, slightly more expensive a Pro Models, and the Ultra Foldable will do for ASP’s over the long term? 2) “Supply-chain checks indicate that the company “has cancelled the 20th anniversary all-glass iPhone model due to poor production yield,” Didn’t we hear production difficulties about the Ultra Foldable? And that was overcome. The 20th anniversary model isn’t slated for over a year, prototyping takes time, engineering, and processes to work out, and maybe one company has their contract cancelled because they couldn’t meet Apple’s stringent quality control, so it moves to someone else? Same happened with BOE displays, Qualcomm modems, even a couple of TSMC chip processes were moved on from quickly. Apple has time to sort out any production yield issues. Even FineWoven was quickly abandoned and replaced. To base a downgrade on an unannounced project 14-16 months in advance based on supply checks is asinine because he has just one data point. 3) “A foldable iPhone, which Apple is expected to debut next month, “will now be the only key driver of higher ASP and margin” over the coming years, Lee wrote. However, skyrocketing prices for key components like memory chips will force a high price point for the product, and “we still believe such an expensive phone would be a niche product.” Everyone lauded Samsung, and now Huawei for making profitable revenue streams out of their Foldables over the past few years despite relatively recently limited sales of 6-7M and 8-8.5M respectively. Here, Apple is introducing a new form factor (which both Samsung & Huawei fast copied trying to capitalize on), increasing ASP’s (see #1 above) and now he’s complaining memory costs will make it too expensive? Give me a break with the doublespeak hypocrisy! If Apple sells the expected 9M units at $2300 ASP, that’s $20.7B in additional annual Fiscal year iPhone revenue, call it $18B for some cannibalized Pro Max sales. Apple, if it had “just” a 15% YoY increase in Q4 iPhone revenue would be on the way to a $253B iPhone year for 2026, +21% FYoFY. Add $17M on top of that minimum for FY2027 and you get a baseline improvement of ~7% already in top of any additional iPhone growth. Given that prices may increase, and demand and sales volumes may decrease somewhat, I’m betting the two offset each other with still positive revenue results, iPhone hardware sales-wise, of probably +5%-7%. That suggests Apple can still maintain upper single to low double digit iPhone revenue growth rates in a market where most Android makers are seeing sales, revenue and profitability contraction for at least the next 3-6 quarters, if not longer. At worst, Apple will see flat to low single digit revenue gains on flat to slightly lower sales volumes, with still enviable industry leading ASP’s ~>$900. Margins may be compressed until memory prices become normalized.'
  • Stephen Gordon on Mark Gurman disputes the facts behind Jefferies' Apple downgrade - 'Much ado about nothing?'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'Even better is the interview with Becky Quick on CNBC’s Closing Bell. The conversation about AI compute as an investable asset begins about 15 minutes into the podcast. This is an impressive group of people sitting down together fostering this notion makes it noteworthy in and of itself. The huge sums flowing into AI infrastructure and development is making it a huge component of the US economy and it is responsible for much of today’s job creation and economic growth. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/closing-bell-overtime-nvidia-wall-street-titans-talk/id1612281974?i=1000782056596 “AI and Wall Street titans combine forces: NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang, Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon, BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Blackstone’s Jon Gray, Apollo’s Jim Zelter, Brookfield’s Bruce Flatt and KKR’s Waldemar Szlezak discuss with our Becky Quick their new agreement $500B between the companies to fund AI infrastructure projects.”'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'Here’s something interesting: Is AI compute the next asset class? https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/nvidia-500b-bet-ai-compute-010210445.html The article’s worth the read. There’s an impressive group of financial firms and finance industry leaders stepping into the support this effort.'
  • David Drinkwater on Is this what dented Apple in premarket trading Monday morning? - 'Eschewing a vain “total glass enclosure” Product before its time may be the same wisdom as not being an over-investor in the Hyperscalar business model. Apple does show restraint and wisdom. [which is to say I am agreeing with you]'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'Apple ended the day down $480 or 1.53% at $308.26. The pullback was prompted by a downgrade by Jefferies and a price target drop to $363.66. The market is skittish on any hint of bad news and it’s in keeping recent market actions. Corporate profits are widely beating expectations for the June quarter. In general, however, we are seeing a reduction of earnings multiples across the market following the release of June quarter results. I consider this a good sign for the market as prices begin to moderate against the current fast pace of earnings growth. I expect Apple to recover quickly from today’s sell-off.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Is this what dented Apple in premarket trading Monday morning? - 'The analyst’s price target of $263.66 was Apple’s trading range in mid-April. In my view, there’s no justification for the drop in price target over the supposed cancellation of a product model that was not announced. If such a project was cancelled, it might be good new for shareholders. It may mean Apple’s sense of discipline is stronger than the pursuit of vanity in an all-glass iPhone enclosure. Either way, I expect a swift recover from today’s drop in share price.'
  • John Konopka on Gene Munster ignores Jefferies' Apple downgrade (video) - 'Most of the TV talking heads only care about the next 24 hours. Long term thinking is one week. On a brighter note: “Apple, MLB announce September ‘Friday Night Baseball’ schedule and first‑ever 3D broadcast in Apple Immersive” This sounds very cool. If they ever do this for NFL games I’m in.'
  • David Thall on Is this what dented Apple in premarket trading Monday morning? - '“Lowers target to $263.66 from $285.56″…? In other words, a perma-Bear lowered his absurdly low target to an even more absurdly lower target. This analyst’s lousy track record speaks for itself. The market manipulators diligently prime the pump by reporting these shallow low-ball “analysts” to fuel algorthims that read the “news” every millisecond just so they can churn their algo driven HFT day trading. And it’s all SEC sanctioned because… Jefferies is a legit firm? Bottomline: Most analysts are wrong over half the time. This one is closer to all the time. Their clients would have better odds flipping a coin.'
  • Gary Morton on Is this what dented Apple in premarket trading Monday morning? - 'I just saw a squirrel cross the road. This proves that Apple R&D is like a bunch of squirrels searching for the next nut. Point target to 265.657459.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Gene Munster ignores Jefferies' Apple downgrade (video) - 'Gene was 100% correct back in 2019 when he aptly stated in response to some other dunderhead with an Apple Negative Nancy article: “The tech media’s overwhelming inability to “get” iPad, or iCloud, or today’s Services feels like willful ignorance dressed up as condescension from people who think they know what Apple should be doing. Yet clearly they haven’t managed to successfully pick up what Apple’s been putting down for a decade now while carrying water for rivals that have actually been repeatedly wrong over the same period. That also applies to Apple’s Services.”'
  • Steven Philips on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'I wouldn’t give them that much credit. Maybe, but also maybe Zucks AI paper? ( Though I haven’t read it yet.)'
  • Greg Lippert on Gene Munster ignores Jefferies' Apple downgrade (video) - 'Gene is today’s voice of reason.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Is this what dented Apple in premarket trading Monday morning? - 'History tells us that first quarter results set the standard for the full year. Whatever Apple reports for the first quarter will equal about 32% of full year results. Now, having a realistic full year result you can determine Q2, Q3 and Q4 results. Will each of those quarters be spot on? No, but they will be closer than WS’s convoluted guesstimates.'
  • Greg Lippert on Is this what dented Apple in premarket trading Monday morning? - 'Go down so my reinvested divis buy more shares you anal dumbasses.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Is this what dented Apple in premarket trading Monday morning? - 'The ONLY indicator an investor needs is management’s guidance, made one month into a 3 month period, with the last 2 months under contract. If management guides up to 11% revenue growth, it’s going to report up to 11% revenue growth. Nobody knows better than management what it is going to report. Apple knows, everyone else is guessing, especially the bears.'
  • Daniel Epstein on Is this what dented Apple in premarket trading Monday morning? - 'Michael, Your bulls–t detector is working well, someone who draws inferences from unannounced product deliveries being cancelled over a year away is making things up to justify a conclusion. And the market is reacting like this guy has an understanding of Apple which there is evidence to the contrary. The trading algorithms must say sell first ask questions later.'