Bart Yee on IDC: As the PC market shrank, Apple gained share - 'Here’s Omdia’s slightly different take on the Global PC market for Q3 2026: https://omdia.tech.informa.com/pr/2026/oct/global-pc-shipments-fall-21percent-in-3q26-as-pull-forward-demand-subsides The latest research from Omdia shows that worldwide shipments of desktops, notebooks, and workstations declined sharply in 3Q26, falling 21.2% year-on-year to 58.1 million units. Desktop shipments (including desktop workstations) fell 23.5% to 11.7 million units, while notebook shipments (including mobile workstations) declined 20.6% to 46.4 million units. In 3Q26, Global PC shipments faced sharpest decline since 1Q23 “After sustained pull-forward activity buoyed the PC market in the first half of the year, this sharp drop in shipment volumes comes as no surprise,” said Ishan Dutt, Research Director at Omdia. “The scale of the decline is consistent with what the industry signaled throughout the last earnings cycle, with leading OEMs forecasting double-digit unit contractions in H2 and retailers reporting double-digit increases in average selling prices (ASPs) alongside falling sales. The impact of upstream component cost increases has now fully worked its way through to end-market pricing, with consumers and IT decision-makers responding accordingly. On the supply side, vendors and their ODM partners began scaling back production in 3Q, while channel partners continued working through elevated inventory levels.” PC material costs increased by over 40% for all price points Omdia forecasts the PC market to decline 24% year-over-year in 4Q26 with a further 7% decline expected for full-year 2027. Despite most leading vendors experiencing double-digit declines in 3Q26, the rankings remained largely unchanged both sequentially and year on year. Lenovo remained in the top spot, shipping 14.9 million units and maintaining a 26% market share. HP recorded the largest decline among the top vendors at 31%, ranking second with shipments of 10.3 million units. Its market share fell to 18%, nearly three percentage points lower than a year earlier. Dell remained in third place, shipping 7.6 million units accounting for 13% of the market. Apple held fourth position, with shipments of 6.8 million units, down 11% year on year. However, it gained more than one percentage point of market share as its premium positioning helped limit the impact of higher prices. Asus rounded out the top five, recording the smallest decline among the leading vendors, with shipments of 5.4 million units and its market share improving to 9.3% year on year.” So Apple has about an 11% decline in shipments/sales, gains a percentage point of share of a smaller market pie, BUT had raised prices by $100 or 17% on Mac Neo, $200 or 18% on MacBook Air, and 17.6% $300 on MacBook Pro and $500 or 25% on Mac Studio M4. Mac Studio M3 Ultra was even higher. So despite sales number being down somewhat and certainly less than most except Asus, Apple’s Mac revenues may be offsetting by higher prices. I’d look for Mac revenues to be flat to slightly higher.'
on IDC: As the PC market shrank, Apple gained share - 'I read this article on another site and couldn’t find the Apple info mentioned at all. So Apple gained share even as sales for the quarter where down 11% if the numbers are to be believed. Of course given the price increases it is hard to judge what the revenue would work out to plus it is hard to trust IDC numbers on Apple unless they come out after an earnings report. See Joseph’s comment about that.'
on IDC: As the PC market shrank, Apple gained share - 'Trust IDC’s numbers about as far as you can throw Donald Trump. IMO.'
on Nikkei Asia strikes again - '”What to do?” Recovery is starting earlier than usual. With less than an hour to go to complete today’s session, AAPL has recovered all but about $2.00 of its ~$10.00 decline this morning. “What to do?” Look for causation (it wasn’t Nikkei’s bogus report), determine if the “cause” has legs, then, as most often is the case, ignore it.'
on Mark Gurman: John Ternus' first five weeks as Apple CEO (video) - 'Not gonna lie, I like this podcast.'
on Nikkei Asia strikes again - 'Apple Insider agrees with our consensus. Right on schedule, sources claim iPhone 18 Pro orders have been cut “There’s a reason we’ve built some contacts in China, and refuting supply chain sources saying that demand for the iPhone 18 Pro is so low that Apple has cut back production is one of them.”'
on Nikkei Asia strikes again - '“ Until AAPL bothers to speak up, this will continue” I am sure you realize why they can’t speak up when misleading info is published. If Apple had a policy to correct such info, that would open the flood gates of false stories just trying to pry more and more info from Apple. And if they respond to some articles, the non responses would be interpreted as responses, and probably not in the way Apple would like.'
on Nikkei Asia strikes again - 'Apple short Supplier report For fable Under table? What to do? Apple won’t sue Money made Story fade'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Shares are now down pre-market $9.19 or 2.70 at $331.23 about 15 minutes before the opening bell. We’ve seen worse actions over rumors before. The broad market is positive this morning and the reports about component orders make little sense this early in the production ramp, in my view. Let’s see how this plays out in morning trading…'
on Nikkei Asia strikes again - 'You know, if you add up all the iPhone production cuts that have ever been reported, you’d have iPhone customers producing iPhones and giving them to Apple. I think that math maths. At the very least, it’s no worse than everyone else’s track record around this issue. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Suica on iPhone is so convenient, tapping on and off without unlocking your phone, buying snacks at 7/11…fantastic. So high tech… and yet cash is still so prevalent.'
on Nikkei Asia strikes again - 'Doesn’t matter whether Nikkei’s (or others’) news is true or credible, only whether they can move the stock price. The algorithms are well-trained to respond at this point. Zero point being upset with Nikkei, Bloomberg, etc., they’re in the business of making money on ‘news’ and AAPL’s information void has become a great place for them to play for clicks, subscriptions, etc. (And it wouldn’t surprise me if people at these orgs directly or indirectly front-run the their news.) Until AAPL bothers to speak up, this will continue. Hoping Ternus is more like Jobs and not as fearful of public speaking and conflict as Cook. Third time this year AAPL has reached my target to collar my remaining unprotected taxable position and in a small window between reaching out to SpiderRock to get quotes and when they run them, AAPL is taken down by third parties.'
on Nikkei Asia strikes again - 'We have definitely seen this movie! Always pays off if you add on these reports. '
on Nikkei Asia strikes again - 'It was many moons ago that I spotted suspiciously well timed hit pieces from a certain prominent UK paper and quizzed the author. It turned out he was relying on PR firms to supply the material. Just lazy journalism?'
on Nikkei Asia strikes again - '“You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time. And those are pretty good odds!” Brett Maverick'
on Nikkei Asia strikes again - 'An unsubstantiated “report” attributing purely speculative reasons for a supposed production volume decline from previously requested levels for the 18 Pro series four days before Duo preorders begin.Hmmmmm.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Trip report from Japan. I picked up my Glacier iPhone Pro 18 on the 18th Sept and just over 24 hours was on the way to Japan for the first time in 25 years. Such an amazing place and fun, kind people. Some apple related observations. – This was the first time I have used camera control in the field. For quick shooting it is immensely useful. For changing control and zoom I found it a bit finicky and never got the hang of it or forgot to use it. Maybe I need to practice here at home before my next holiday. – Battery was stellar compared to my prior 82% healthy 15 Pro. – iPhones are everywhere in Japan and Pros seem even more overweighted in public. – Visited these apple stores: — Grand Front Osaka. A beautiful new store in the shopping centre linking Ōsaka Station. The thing I found most interesting is that none of the display units are secured. No tethering strap on iPhones like every other Apple Store I have been to around the world. Why can’t the rest of the world be so honest and not have to worry about theft? — Shinjuku. Another new store at the centre of the entrance of a youthy multi-level shopping centre. Apple just chooses it’s locations so smartly. – Harajuku. Just a drive by, but another beautiful atrium style store on a great shopping street. – New Ginza store. For a flagship this was disappointing. Quite schmick but no memorable architecture and each of the 3 long levels looked the same. I am sure it is all about the location though. – Apple Wallet Transit Card. First time I have used this and sorry if this the normal for you but I was blown away how easy it was to add a Japanese transport card to my iPhone and top up with my apple pay amex as we went. The integration is so clean and can be used at most stores as well as every train system we encountered. iOS notifications are instant on tap to tell your new balance and how much the trip cost when tapping off. – I discovered that these digital IC cards are available with all iPhones but only certain Japanese market androids can partake. Travelling from overseas with an android and you will most likely have to use an old style card and find a machine to top up – tough luck. Was an intense and amazing 12 day deep dive into Japanese culture. My single best tip is to enter the ballot for the Yamazaki Distillery Tour & Tasting. Whisky lovers are in for a real treat and you will have the opportunity to buy 2 bottles of this famous whisky at a price I thought was a mistake (70% cheaper than Australia).'
on Apple throws a monkey wrench into the digital ad business - 'Scam calls are intrusive for sure. For me, they’re also entertaining, and they provide me chances to practice deception detection, response challenges, and to hopefully heighten my awareness in general of danger. I’m well aware of the recommendation to “just hang up”. Reminds me of the girlfriend who wouldn’t ski with me, because, “why would I want to break my leg!”'
on Apple 3.0 meetup in Palo Alto 6/11/26 (video) - 'It was such a fun night. Thanks again Romeo for charging up the evening. Lovely times — 😉'
