Steven Philips on Apple at $340.08: Second record close in as many days - 'But doesn’t a beat mean the stock will drop?'
on Why Goldman Sachs raised its Apple target - 'Some thoughts. If Apple could use CXMT memory for non-US iPhone sales, that could be a head wind. Positive reports from the beta release of Apple Intelligence may also help push AAPL. Regardless of iPhone roll-out, the Fold will be a hit. And the usual suspects, short covering, momentum, etc.'
on Apple at $340.08: Second record close in as many days - '@Gregg: They say the trend is your friend. Although the folks who have shorted Apple in the past few months are probably covering and getting out of the way before earnings. Or not. My hunch is Apple will beat the Q-3 projections by Wall Street. Here are the numbers on the shorts: Short interest was (155.886) Million as of May 29, 2026. 3.384 Short interest was (144.248) Million as of June 15, 2026. 2.755 Short interest was (140.526) Million as of June 30, 2026. 1.732 Short interest was (146.547) Million as of July 15, 2026. 3.05'
on Horace Dediu has a cool new way to preview Apple earnings - 'Fred: You have good taste. My favorite too, especially Marimar Estates. 😉'
on Apple at $340.08: Second record close in as many days - 'I fold AUD $310/$15 Caal Spreads. Given AAPL’s sudden and dramatic rise, do I roll these into further out, higher up or both., before earnings, or wait and see what the market reaction will be. I’m torn, because following the trend punched me squarely in the snot locker a month ago. The selloff was totally unjustified and I took a $140K hit. I say it was unjustified because everything lost was recovered before the week was out. Investors can be such simpletons.'
on If AI is a bubble, where does that leave Apple? - 'Zitron’s analysis brings to mind the analyst, Laura Martin. Prediction: During the next few months, once analyst skepticism of “AI as a service based on data centers” reaches fever pitch, Laura Martin will join that chorus. She will praise the foresight of Apple management for not wasting money on all that infrastructure. She will change her call on AAPL to a “strong buy.” When she appears on CNBC, she will defend her love of AAPL in a completely doubt-free manner, as though she knew it all along. CNBC hosts will nod and clap. She will do this after the run-up in AAPL price approaches its near-term zenith. Shortly thereafter, AAPL will correct. She will have cost her clients even more money. No one at CNBC will even try to hold her accountable.'
on Dan Niles on Apple AI: 'Sometimes you get lucky for being incompetent' - 'Remember Cramer’s infamous rant about analysts… ? “They know NOTHING!!!” Well, Dan Niles is the poster boy for the doofuses he’s referring to. As if you had’t noticed… AAPL closed today at a new all-time high: $340.08 It didn’t close at its midday high of $342.89, but hey… as Scarlett O’Hara put it, “Afterall, tomorrow is another day.”'
on AI funding is giving Jim Cramer dot-com deja vu - 'How old were the current AI leaders in 2000? Teenagers? The market has a short memory.'
on If AI is a bubble, where does that leave Apple? - 'Yesterday articles appeared about Nvidia considering backstopping OpenAI to the tune of $250 billion (yes, with a ‘B’!) for building data centers. I think the basic position that Apple may well be sitting on the sidelines watching the LLM-based AI industry cavitate and then, after surveying the carnage, tossing around some money for strategic acquisitions or partnerships is a pretty realistic possible thing within the next year or two. In the last few weeks I’ve seen what are the first public questions and criticisms I’ve found from commentators in the mainstream about the scale of hyperscaler spend and the increasing scale of financial circularity and off-books accounting, and also the first mention of the lack of any kind of detail from any of them about how they’re going to make a profit off of all of this spending, let alone even recoup their capex spending. The retail investment world seems to be catching on to it, and some companies at least will have exceptionally hard times explaining any of this, starting with OpenAI, Space-X, and Oracle, but really extending to all of them. However, I disagree with the notion that Apple’s tying itself to companies that it thinks won’t survive, or that Apple’s basically done nothing on AI. Not even considering what Apple’s been doing in-house with AI development, Apple’s built a strategic plan and model that enables it to leverage hyperscalers’ product functionality, in a sort of modified plug-and-play form. Does anyone think an AI bubble will make Google or Microsoft disappear? No. Because they have exceptionally profitable other businesses that are propping up their AI dreams, and if they have to write off their AI infrastructure prematurely, they’ll take the hit and move on. The other pure AI players won’t survive, because they don’t have any sort of sustainable financial model for continuing business. And I think that’s the case whether or not there’s a stock bubble-burst.'
on Horace Dediu has a cool new way to preview Apple earnings - 'Comparing apple quarter to quarter has never really made much sense to me. Apple is an extremely seasonal company.'
on Horace Dediu has a cool new way to preview Apple earnings - 'Somehow I have to really concentrate to understand the charts and the underlying information so not sure I would call it “cool”. Useful information for sure.'
on Dan Niles on Apple AI: 'Sometimes you get lucky for being incompetent' - 'The unfortunate things about these programs is that their guests usually have an agenda that they want to get across and they aren’t held accountable for the statements that they make. It would be nice if there was a real back and forth with the guests answering real questions about their opinion from the past as well as the present. It would probably make for fewer guests appearing on these shows which is probably the reason why they don’t do it. As for negative opinions, when I am in the right mood, I don’t mind seeing them. It helps me look at my investments and see if there are issues I haven’t taken into account. I dislike the echo chamber. Probably the place where most of the mistakes get made.'
on AI funding is giving Jim Cramer dot-com deja vu - 'We still have about $7 trillion sloshing around our money supply since the pandemic. That money is mostly sitting in the hands of rent-seeking investors – ie private equity, banks, investment firms, and even insurance companies – who have to put their money into something. They can’t be conservative when everyone else is making money by this circular investing. FOMO is likely driving their investments more than critical reasoning. If it were not the AI bubble, it would likely be something else. They have to put the money somewhere. The Fed could do something monetarily about this, but I think those measures would be politically untenable. Congress could do something fiscally about this, but I think those measures would be politically untenable. It seems to me that the main way the money will be removed is a collapse of the bubble and an economic crisis. As it usually is when investors get nuts.'
on Apple says Micron's profit margins are too high - 'Bloody hell Bart, this is 5 analysts’ support jobs going down the tubes.'
on If AI is a bubble, where does that leave Apple? - 'Where does that leave Apple? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnH_zwVmiuE (AWB “Pick Up the Pieces”)'
on If AI is a bubble, where does that leave Apple? - 'I’m not sure where this idea comes from: “It was a mass-radicalization of its users against AI”'
on Dan Niles on Apple AI: 'Sometimes you get lucky for being incompetent' - 'He’s on my shortlist of people I’d like to punch in the face. It’s a shame Apple has missed out on all that lucrative AI revenue open AI, etc are raking in. SMH'
