Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Hi, Gregg: “ Max pain starts the week at $250 (down $25)….” The little options tail trying to wag the AAPL St. Bernard?'
on Evercore: Ten days before Christmas, iPhone lead times are expanding - 'Services and AVP for sports are going to drive the stock in late 2026 and beyond.'
on Evercore: Ten days before Christmas, iPhone lead times are expanding - ' My guess is that we might see some whipsawing of the share price due to some end of year profit taking. Or tax selling.'
on Evercore: Ten days before Christmas, iPhone lead times are expanding - 'Nice to hear this from an investors standpoint, but not from a consumer’s standpoint. Interesting that we hear this news and Apple stock is down about 4 bucks at this time. My guess is that we might see some whipsawing of the share price due to some end of year profit taking.'
on About IDC's estimate of Apple's impact on the foldables market next year - 'Thanks to all for comments on my analysis of the Foldables market forecast as seen by IDC. However, the link above goes to a Counterpoint Foldables report I had sent earlier to Phil, even though it’s titled the IDC report, and quotes above come from the Counterpoint report, not the IDC report or graphs images. Here is the proper link: my idc com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS54017625 Phil has now fixed the link above. For those interested, replace the Counterpoint comments with the IDC comments and graphs, and then my analysis makes more sense. It was striking to me to see IDC showing their forecast graph spiking growth in demand for Foldables with Apple’s 2026 entry, and then the demand swiftly declining over 2027 to 2029. That told me the entire Foldables market was not expected to expand along with Apple’s growth nearly as fast, almost considering the Android (including Harmony OS Huawei) Foldables market “mature and saturated”, or in my view, limited in population and economic expansion ability, as I’ve been saying about the entire Android premium market, at least within the current worldwide macroeconomic environment. This is particularly evident in China still. I will say that the contrasting different forecast expectations of these research companies have always been highly optimistic in regards to the Android & Huawei Foldables sales numbers, seeming to believe they can get more Android/Chinese buyers to pony up, or lure Apple users away from iOS. But the actual market has fallen way short of those lofty expectations of the 75M-100M or more expected by 2027-28. Samsung themselves wishfully had predicted nearly 1 in 4 sales would eventually become Foldables, or that Foldables would eventually surpasss Galaxy S sales (currently at 35-40M/year) and that certainly has been way off the mark, Samsung Foldables stalled at around 9-11M for 2025. Now I suspect they are underestimating Apple’s potential in the Foldables market, or maybe IDC and Counterpoint see Apple’s Foldable production capacity constrained mainly by Samsung’s display supply, expected high Apple pricing, or the same limitations of size and economic capability for Apple’s users, that may be incorrect. Ultimately, if proven popular, the iFold could easily take 35% or more of the market within 2 years, not 4 IMO.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Fifty minutes out from today’s opening bell and it’s green across the board. Pre-market Apple is ahead $0.46 at $278.74. Broadcom, among Friday’s big losers, is up $0.92 at $360.85. Morgan Stanley is positive by $1.59 at $179.99 and Big Blue is in the green $0.31 at $309.56. It’s looking like a good way to start the day!'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/15-12/19/25) - 'The eccentrics had nothing to do after they left the camshafts so they went into politics and shafted the population. Careful or we’ll all be ASMLated. 🙂'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/15-12/19/25) - 'I used to know a little bit about statistics. Seems to me there are a lot of correlations you could do against Apple quarterly results. There’s ‘match to guidance’. There’s ‘match to estimates for each ANALyst (where you have enough data, and make assumptions about the period envisioned for the estimates.) There’s ‘match to statistics on PED’s quarterly wrap-up, both on individual estimates, and on the 2 groups (pro and independents) as a whole’ All of these are attempts to measure how well/poorly various individuals/groups are at predicting Apple results. My gut would be something like “Apple estimates correlate in the long run, but are generally too low by a relatively consistent amount’. (I like the idea of trying to correlate that data to individual CFOs.) “Apple estimates by the independents both track better and are consistently over-optimistic. Apple estimates by the pros are consistently pessimistic, and are on average less accurate (larger standard deviation) than the independents.” But I could be well off-base. (A lot of what I did professionally was to suggest to my boss possible trends or questions, that he would then task someone, on his staff or more usually the prime contractor, to answer. Then we’d compare the reported results to my gut. My gut was usually pretty good… )'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/15-12/19/25) - 'I really enjoyed the 48 minute romp through high tech, but that should be expected from a semiconductor manufacturing engineer. I don’t work for TI, so I safely say that I don’t work for TI. (I won’t name my own employer here.) What TI are doing here in North Texas (AKA DFW Metroplex) is pretty remarkable. They are making their wafers bigger (300 mm = 12″) and with smaller feature sizes (especially if they pick up the highest end ASML printers that were discussed in the opening stanza). I think TI only started 300 mm manufacturer on Renner Road at RFAB (“R” stands for Richardson, the “near Dallas” suburb) in the late 20teens. So the fact they they are doing so much more out in Sherman is pretty remarkable (but that is a 70-100 minute commute that does not interest me at all). Semiconductor manufacturing is a very interesting business, and I think that the analog aspect of what TI does isn’t immediately obvious. The video talks about it a bit, but I think something doesn’t get very clearly expressed. It is the processing of real-world stimuli and transforming them into digital information that drives many, many, many of the Internet of Things things that we experience each day that enable so much of what we just take for granted. (Sorry, lotta words there.) Cars today can do things that my 19 and 21 year old beaters certainly can’t do (backup cameras! whoa!), and chips replace ancient internal technologies that were “always there” (there aren’t eccentrics on cam-shafts nowadays: there are computer chips – and we make some of them at my workplace!). So anyway, that was fun for me. Thanks for that, PED!'
on About IDC's estimate of Apple's impact on the foldables market next year - 'Bart : I suspect a lot of Foldable users now are ex-iPhone users. I believe your suspicion. I’ve always wanted to try one but just could not step into buying hardware/software fun in that AND having to leave the iOS environment/ecosystem I’ve invested heavily in (and its ties to the Mac, TV, and Vision OS’s I’m also heavily vested in). With the rumors swirling around ’s own foldable, I only need to wait with hopeful earnest.'
on About IDC's estimate of Apple's impact on the foldables market next year - 'As always, Bart’s outlook warrants him a seat on the Board at Apple.'
on Peter Kafka: Latest Epic ruling not yet a 'turning point' for Apple - 'The world according to Sweeney: “My IP is worth $Billions!! IP of others is maybe worth $hundreds. Nothing else is fair, and I’ll sue anyone that disagrees.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/15-12/19/25) - 'Robert, I appreciate and read all your contributions. Thanks. May I ask to add forward PE to the above list. While FPE is just an estimate it provides a view of market sentiment.'
