Recent Comments

  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Gregg: You are being patient and kind taking time to even read his posts. Following your cue I wanted to better understand your post. I read the beginning of this gentleman’s “understanding” of the accrual basis of accounting and accounting rules. I genuinely feel sorry for him. I need to leave it at that and move on… Thank you for being gracious. I am striving to do the same. I wish him well.'
  • Darren DMW on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Did anyone notice AAPL retreated after the rumour of problems with the iPhone “fold” circuit board? I think there was a similar retreat from near ATH after supposed issues with the hinge. Most likely these rumours are at best half right and inconsequential for iPhone delivery but useful to suppress the price when it gets away from shorters.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Why BofA Securities raised its Apple price target $50 to $380 - 'Daniel: Simply put to reach anywhere near $380 per share Apple has to meet high expectations for WWDC 2026. I’d like to see the company more than meet high expectations. Apple products can be the doorways through which consumer around the world enter the AI world and for millions and millions of power users the iPhone and the Mac may be the devices through which they navigate a whole new world of computing opportunities. In my view, WWDC has been two years in the making. If Apple indeed delivers, we will have a much more scenic location from which to have a conversation.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Why BofA Securities raised its Apple price target $50 to $380 - 'Fred: At $380 per share Apple’s market cap would be in the range of $5.5 trillion. I’m already looking beyond the $5 trillion market cap marker. In my view, if Apple delivers to high expectations at WWDC 2026 (or even just beyond high expectations) it will benefit Apple’s full platform of products and services by strengthening the iPhone’s halo effect while widening the company’s economic moat and raising barriers to competition. Prospects of two to three years of high single-digit revenue growth and low double-digit net income growth would propel the shares into a higher trading range. $380 per share is about 23.25% above today’s closing price.'
  • Fred Stein on Why BofA Securities raised its Apple price target $50 to $380 - 'Cool, thanks. $5T is about 10% more – only a matter of time.'
  • Steven Philips on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Profit taking? I didn’t see any bad news.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Why BofA Securities raised its Apple price target $50 to $380 - 'Barron’s today is talking about a run to a $5 trillion market cap. I’m sending the links to the stories through the Apple 3.0 Slack group.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Joesph, I hope you never become a tax accountant. : )'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'What a day! Apple rose to an all-time high of $311.82 from Friday’s closing price of $308.82 before closing down $0.49 at $308.33. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 small cap index all reached new all-time highs during today’s session.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Yes, Roger. I had planned to comment on your call in the Apple 3.0 post in which it was made. The nearly 20% gain today was a surprise. Western Digital was up $40.37 or 8.34% at $524.65 in sympathy. Thank you for sharing your insights and your forecasts! Your posts are very much appreciated!'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'BTW, the major pullback in MSFT’s trailing P/E is IMO indicative of Horace’s point – and one reason for AAPL’s correspondingly-increasing valuation: Apple’s value proposition remains standing, unlike Microsoft’s….'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Here’s my “take”, posted in Asymco One, Horace’s new paywalled comment arena: I completely agree, but my takeaway is that for some companies the P/E reflects reality better than for others. Each P/E must be taken with its individual grain – or boulder – of salt. Take NVDA’s P/E, for example: Within a few days of it’s last earnings report, it dropped from a trailing P/ E of ~46 to ~33 – yet it’s price only dropped from $236 to $215 (today’s close). We’ve actually seen this kind of P/E hit before, with AAPL, back in the early days of Apple buybacks, when net income spiked and so did share buybacks, both together spiking EPS for the quarter – and dropping EPS like a lead balloon. That drop in estimated valuation did not go unnoticed, in either case, because a drop in valuation is perceived by many as the same as a drop in value. And history is clear: The perception breeds the result. In Apple’s case, it resulted in continuous trips below a trailing valuation of 10, about every two to three years. Then, buybacks happened, and as the float diminished, sanity began to return to Apple’s valuation, as all the shares under the direct control of the options market were slowly reabsorbed from the float as they were offered for sale. Thus, today’s split- adjusted trading volume is a fraction of what it was pre-buyback. It has taken 14 years, but Apple is finally being fairly valued by its P/E ratio. But it may well be one of few companies whose actual valuation (written as how many years it would take at Apple’s present net income and share count to equal its market cap) is a good representation of its future growth potential.'
  • Fred Stein on Why BofA Securities raised its Apple price target $50 to $380 - 'Love the PT. And yet, he underestimates the new AI work that will migrate to all Apple devices. This goes beyond orchestration. Apple silicon already handles smaller LLMs at a fraction of the cost per token; And it can take on other, non-LLM, AI work on device. This is new, rapidly changing, well beyond what I’ve gleaned (bad pun) so far. Caveat: LLMs are the default now because it’s so easy. Tell your boss (or they tell you) just put it on the company account. No equipment purchase process.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I’m posting the second half of Horace Dediu’s most recent post here – “The problem with the P/E ratio”. Perhaps PED will pick it up. It’s a particularly good one. “But the situation with AI companies (that is, all the big tech companies but Apple) is that their earnings today are somewhat an illusion. An old maxim that says “earnings are an opinion while cash flow is a fact. 3 This is because Net income can be manipulated by accounting abstractions, whereas cash flow is based on bank transactions. To wit: Net income (earnings) is calculated using accrual accounting, which relies heavily on judgment calls rather than bank balances. Companies recognize revenues the moment a contract is signed, even if the cash won’t be collected for months. Or they can dial in a delay as they desire. Because of varying accounting policies, two identical companies with the exact same physical business can report vastly different earnings figures. Cash flow is objective and simply tracks the actual movement of money in and out of the business. Real dollars either enter the bank account or they don’t. A company can look highly profitable on an income statement but still go bankrupt if its cash is trapped in unpaid invoices or unsold inventory. Finally, cash flow can be strongly negative while earnings are strongly positive. This is because investment in capital equipment does not appear in the income statement. Therefore true economic value is determined by the cash a company can actually distribute or reinvest rather than how it declares profitability based on accounting abstractions. AI companies are not necessarily hiding behind suspect earnings but their extraordinary capital expenditures are draining their cash and thus what investors have access to. Earnings seem to be soaring so the ratio P/E suggests a modest valuation. This is based on opinion or at least incompleteness. We should look at a better indicator. It’s the EV/FCF ratio. We will look at this next. 1. The top 10 ranking can change rapidly and it makes analysis difficult over longer time periods. The inclusion of LLY and BRK-B allow for visibility outside of the tech sector and they were in the list mid 2025. Saudi Aramco is in a completely different environment influenced by non-economic factors. 2. TSMC is absent from the table as it is US only companies. It is notable perhaps that of the top 15, three are not US companies (TSMC, Samsung and Saudi Aramco). Furthermore the top Chinese company, Tencent is 25th, valued at $532 billion and the top European company is ASML at 21st and $610 billion. 3. Attributed to economist Alfred Rappaport.”'
  • Gregg Thurman on Why BofA Securities raised its Apple price target $50 to $380 - 'Back in the early ‘80s I worked for a regional telephone equipment company selling PBXs, Call Accounting Stems, Voice Mails Systems, etc. Voice mail was a bleeding edge hot ticket item, even though most didn’t understand the benefits of an automated receptionist and message taker (I’ve come to hate them). I think acceptance and use of “AI” is going to follow a similar path, especially the data center driven “AI” systems. Where, today, everyone is all excited about the promise of “AI”, ultimately people will come to hate them.'
  • Darren DMW on Postcard from Hvar - 'Been twice but never made it all the way up to the castle (due to the heat and others preferring an afternoon drink) so well done. In Hvar I recommend Dalmatino for dinner.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'No surprise to me, Raj. This is a very nervous market…and it should be….'
  • Daniel Epstein on Why BofA Securities raised its Apple price target $50 to $380 - 'Well the market didn’t treat this analyst’s increased price target with much respect today as Apple’s Stock Price ended up slightly down for the day after being in record high price midday. Should be expected after the Iran war news continued to be complicated if not down right negative. While I like Wamsi Mohan’s idea and new price target I keep hearing the argument from other analysts who have mostly missed the move up that Apple is too expensive, not growing fast enough. Same old story. I hope Apple is trying to give Tim Cook a boost as he becomes Chairman next quarter and John Ternus a company in great shape to steer going forward. It certainly feels that way for now.'
  • David Emery on Why BofA Securities raised its Apple price target $50 to $380 - 'It’s good to see an analyst produce a target that reflects a serious position, rather than “noise in the data.” Their ‘5 actions’ make sense (at least if you buy into “everything will become agents” vision of the AI enabled future.0'
  • Rodney Avilla on Why BofA Securities raised its Apple price target $50 to $380 - 'A 380 target. Awesome. Now I have company.'
  • Roger Schutte on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Robert, I had a feeling it would cross $1T well before year end. Didn’t quite think it would get there in just a few weeks. I piled in with a very hefty purchase when I made that prediction and let’s just say, Drinks are on me tonight!'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Micron reportedly just crossed the $1 trillion market cap marker. I appreciate the opportunities available to investors today! The shares are up this day over 20% at $906.57, an increase of $155.57 from Friday’s closing price.'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is green - '@Bill I’m a little nervous about Musk. This IPO may force index funds to sell AAPL and others to buy space-x if it is included in the indices. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/wall-street-may-not-ready-180111286.html'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'John Houseman (Smith Barney commercials) was a grain dealer and at one time a member of the Chicago Board of Trade before transitioning into a career in the arts. Smith Barney eventually was merged into Morgan Stanley. Remember the old EF Hutton commercials? “When EF Hutton talks… people listen.” The EF Hutton brand name was revived in 2021as a new name for Kingswood Capital Markets. The reason I bring this up is, “When Wamsi Mohan speaks, I listen!” He’s got more Street credibility, in my view, than the TV commercial-based legacies of Smith Barney and EF Hutton combined! This is definitely a bullish call! At $380 the new price target is $70 or more than 22% above the current trading price.'
  • Raj Pandey on Premarket: Apple is green - '320 by June 8th is likely. If the new Siri is mind blowing then we’ll see 330. I have 800 July 17 300 Call options which are at $18 a piece today. I’ll decide how many to sell and/or exercise based on June 8th.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Bank of America raised its AAPL target to $380. Notably Wamsi’s new target represents a near 25% gain from today’s prints. ” Bank of America boosted its price target on the tech giant to $380 a share, a 23% gain from Friday’s close” In the last week we’ve had PT revisions of $375, $380, $385 and $400 (Ives). I believe all of these targets are reliant on a 25% gain from present prints. Accordingly, Ives’ target means he expects near term AAPL gains to $320. I think this is very likely by July expiry.'
  • Steven Philips on Premarket: Apple is green - 'What a reminder! I forgot about that one. 🙁'
  • Raj Pandey on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I’m surprised the stock hasn’t jumped higher today with the massive PT hike to 380 from BofA’s analyst Wamsi Mohan.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Anybody else noticing the stream of “AI” enhanced feature announcements Apple is making ahead of WWDC? None require a data center or tokens but are useful with no learning curve.'
  • Bill Donahue on Postcard from Hvar - '“Its newest move, however, suggests the corporation is taking a different tack.” That really made me laugh! That anyone could just be realizing that Apple’s strategic vision for AI may be different from all the hyperscalers’ is almost unbelievable.'