Recent Comments

  • David Emery on Wedbush's Street-high $350 Apple target is nearly $100 above the share price - 'But the original post said is totally dependent on Trump’s defeat That’s different from (a) continuing chaos or (b) an implication that things will automagically change in Jan 2029. It could well be the next 3 years will continue to enlarge the huge hole we’re in already. Or it could be that the worst of the damage has been done, and the likely Congressional change-over* will prevent much further damage. If the latter, would the system start to heal itself? Other wild cards, like Putin, Xi, “Supreme Leader Jr,” and Bibi can still substantially screw things up. AND how is the departure of Trump directly coupled to AAPL stock price? That’s really the part I don’t get. * But frankly, the Democrats still have Lots of Ways to screw up the mid-terms, and I have low confidence they’ll avoid serious mistakes/misreading of the electorate.'
  • Bill Donahue on Wedbush's Street-high $350 Apple target is nearly $100 above the share price - 'Yes, it really is astounding. Who knew that when you blow up a gas plant, it takes more than a week or two to bring it back on-line?? Oh. Everyone, that’s who. Except, apparently all of the people ordering the blowing up and most of the people talking about where markets and stocks are going. More and more academic economists are predicting a recession in the USA that will officially begin this Fall (because of the definition of recession requiring two consecutive quarters economic retraction – meaning the pain and path have already started).'
  • Bill Donahue on Mark Gurman: Apple granted iPhone designers anti-poaching stock options - 'Wow! Apparently things are going well for people in Cupertino!'
  • Fred Stein on Mark Gurman: Apple granted iPhone designers anti-poaching stock options - 'These stock incentives are normal for the industry and the geography. For perspective, Refin says; “The median sale price of a home in Cupertino was $3.2M last month, up 33.4% since last year.”'
  • John Konopka on Wedbush's Street-high $350 Apple target is nearly $100 above the share price - 'The head of Europe’s central bank just said financial markets don’t understand what they’re in for. This is Christine Lagarde saying the damage is already done. Most people have absolutely no idea. Here is what she actually said. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. That chokepoint carries 20% of the world’s oil and gas. Markets shrugged. Investors assumed it would blow over. Lagarde told The Economist that technical experts are not talking about months for recovery. They are talking about years. Helium travels through the Strait of Hormuz. Helium is not a balloon gas. It is the invisible ingredient inside every advanced microchip on earth. Qatar supplies 35% of the world’s commercial helium. Qatar’s facilities have gone dark. Spot prices have surged past $450 per thousand cubic feet. Most chip fabricators carry less than three months of inventory. The world is building AI data centers at record speed. The raw material that makes the chips possible is now scarce. —————————————- This is very concerning. Much of this is replaceable. We get helium from natural gas which we produce in the US. Sulphur is the main component of sulphuric acid and sulphur is very abundant. Urea is produced from natural gas which the US has a lot of. However, it takes a long time to build the plants that can produce these and other commodities. It looks like we are in for a rough ride.'
  • John Konopka on Wedbush's Street-high $350 Apple target is nearly $100 above the share price - 'Assuming this is a one year target it seems too high, unless he has some special justification. Perhaps new products will drive new revenue? The P/E is already in the mid 30s. Apple is unlikely to grow fast enough to earn a higher P/E. Organic revenue growth can drive earnings up a moderate amount. Share buybacks will reduce share count. Combined this might drive the share price up maybe 20%? Give or take a healthy delta. $350 implies about a 40% growth. I’d like to see his reasoning for that. Using a very broad brush: Apple already has access to almost all users. No new populations to reach out to. It would seem that each user is already maxed out as to how much per year they can pay Apple (more or less). The only other option I see is for new products to drive lots of new revenue. What would that be? AI is a big question mark. As yet, people don’t seem to be willing to pay very much for it and free versions abound.'
  • Daniel Epstein on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Listening to CNBC moan today about the miserable 7 action the one really useful thing to me is most of the price action is in sync with the Iran situation over the last month or so with additional company specific issues modifying the action. Apple’s good news during this time has limited its stock price fall compared to the other Mag 7 negative news or opinions exacerbating the other companies stock pullbacks. And I have always wondered why people would think these large market cap companies would trade in the same direction when the businesses had many different aspects.'
  • John Konopka on Apple quietly pulls plug on 'cheese grater' Mac Pro - 'Way back when, shortly before this design was released there was a leaked image of one of these on a MacRumors forum. Maybe a week or so before the announcement someone posted a photo of a then current MacPro with a cheese grater clumsily strapped to the front. We all thought it was a joke. Good times.'
  • Joseph Bland on Mark Gurman: Apple granted iPhone designers anti-poaching stock options - 'Another benefit of buybacks for long term investors that you don’t get with dividends….'
  • Daniel Epstein on Apple quietly pulls plug on 'cheese grater' Mac Pro - 'I was a steady user of Mac Pro’s until recently. I have a couple older machines for legacy applications. I can understand why Apple has discontinued the form considering how the rest of the Mac line has evolved. Apple Silicon didn’t lend itself to the Mac Pro strengths so users will end up with different solutions for 3rd party add ons that were great to use in the Mac Pro. I suspect Apple is correct that this form factor is not important to the Mac’s growth going forward. C’est la vie! If you really need one the used market will be around for a while!'
  • Joseph Bland on Wedbush's Street-high $350 Apple target is nearly $100 above the share price - '(Have to respond) David, there’s no predicting a loose cannon – or a desperate despot.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'The Apple Beachball is just part of the wreckage as the rest of the market submerges….'
  • Bill Donahue on Mark Gurman: Apple granted iPhone designers anti-poaching stock options - 'I would be shocked if bonuses via future-vested options weren’t employed this way throughout Apple’s hardware, software and business network. It’s not at all complicated: you keep exceptional people happy and incentivized, or you lose them.'
  • Bill Donahue on Marques Brownlee: Apple's new laptops are putting Microsoft on notice - 'And in return for their “investment” stake in OpenAI, MSFT booked a $10 billion loss in the last quarter alone, extra to their capex costs.'
  • David Emery on Marques Brownlee: Apple's new laptops are putting Microsoft on notice - 'Even if they weren’t spending gigabucks on AI, Microsoft Windows 11 would -still have- the problems Brownlee highlights. Inefficient initial set-up, continuing nagware (although Apple is going down that appalling path with the Numbers/Pages/Keynote ‘upgrade’ nags), ads, etc. It’s telling that you HAVE TO HAVE a specialized CoPilot key in a specific location to get the computer marketed as “AI ready.” It shows how Microsoft still has “tacky” as part of its corporate DNA. Brownlee makes the point that buying a Neo introduces you to Apple services. But for the most part, those services aren’t shoved down your throat, and the computer is perfectly usable without any Apple service.'
  • Fred Stein on Marques Brownlee: Apple's new laptops are putting Microsoft on notice - 'MSFT has an AI problem. MSFT pays up the CAPEX, top dollar plus infra, for AI. Apple’s users pay for edge AI.'
  • David Emery on Marques Brownlee: Apple's new laptops are putting Microsoft on notice - 'Two thoughts: (1) Brownlee emphasizes how all the component manufacturers have to -synchronize- to match Apple’s integration. That’s a good point, it seems the core arguments for modularity are somewhat defeated by the complexity of the interfaces and the system-as-a-whole emergent properties. If Qualcomm becomes the CPU provider of course, ‘playing well with others’ is not a strength of their corporate culture, I suspect. 🙂 Brownlee strongly implies the weak link in the user experience is Microsoft’s enshittification of Windows. (2) And at the end, Brownlee has to sell tacky (pun intended) stickers….'
  • Rick Povich on Is this why Apple jumped Thursday morning? - '“… despite the “The end is nigh!” noise from the talking heads over the last two years that’s been hitting the stock every few months…” Ehhhh, this has been an AAPL phenomenon for 30 years! Who can forget Cramer’s manipulation and the always popular “Law of Large Numbers” threat. But Apple always prevails.'
  • Rick Povich on Marques Brownlee: Apple's new laptops are putting Microsoft on notice - 'I think Apple has really gotten into a very sweet spot. The Neo is making huge inroads, directly competing with PCs and Chromebooks and the MBP line is just amazing. I upgraded from a 14” M3Max to a “snappier” M5 Max. One of the things I quickly noticed is the Thunderbolt 5 port speed. Last year I bought a 4TB Samsung Thunderbolt 4 drive for my video work. I had a 162 GB folder of video and audio files. I was able to transfer the data from the SSD to the M5 in 2 minutes using a TB4 cable. I haven’t spent a lot of time actually experimenting with it but the Geekbench scores are pretty good I’d say. Overall it seems like a pretty good Apple product that should give PC manufacturers something to worry about'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'In the first minutes of Friday trading Apple is up $0.25 at $253.14 while the indexes have opened in the red. Let’s see if Apple can buck the market trend and finish trading in the green.'
  • Les Surdykowski on Marques Brownlee: Apple's new laptops are putting Microsoft on notice - 'There was an interesting language choice at Apple back in the Jobs days where they stopped using the word customer and started using the word user. I think there’s a through line between that word choice and this product/price offering.'
  • David Emery on Wedbush's Street-high $350 Apple target is nearly $100 above the share price - 'I don’t see the direct connection. Sure, the current vector of US and world economy is down, and Apple products are discretionary spending (particularly the more expensive ones.) But I don’t see the Trump administration pursuing antitrust the same way the Biden administration did. I’m not looking forward to a return to that kind of “executive action” (Much of what Khan wanted to do was not authorized by law.)'
  • Steven Philips on Wedbush's Street-high $350 Apple target is nearly $100 above the share price - 'No analysts seem willing to note that any upward projection of AAPL’s price (let alone 350!) is totally dependent on Trump’s defeat'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Apple closed on Thursday up $0.27 at $252.89 and is currently up $1.42 overnight at $254.31. Index futures are green across-the-board at 3:30am in the west.'
  • Charles A. on Is this why Apple jumped Thursday morning? - 'This site’s value is waaay more than AAPL’s current share price. I seriously doubt there would be many if any defectors if Philip were to set a much more realistic level based on the considerable value add provided by the daily discussions on his site.'
  • Charles A. on Is this why Apple jumped Thursday morning? - 'PED’s My Take referred to Apple 3.0’s annual subscription fee, pegged to the stock’s April 1 closing price.'
  • David Emery on Google's breakthrough is Apple's gain - 'I wonder how Jevon’s Paradox considers investment and ROI. Coal mines aren’t cheap, but I’m not sure if they’re in the same level of investment as LLM infrastructure. Or to put it another way, when did increased sales of coal pay off the increased investment to get and distribute it?'
  • Gregg Thurman on How a friend of the bros sees Zuck's judicial comeuppance - '”He makes it sound like the NM AG did this for purely political reasons, to make himself look good. ” Does it matter why he did it? It needed to be done, and it was.'
  • Robert Stack on How a friend of the bros sees Zuck's judicial comeuppance - 'Thank you Bill as I was thinking exactly the same thing. He makes it sound like the NM AG did this for purely political reasons, to make himself look good. I’m glad there are still a few public servants – at least at the state level – who have the guts to stand up to some of the worst of these scoundrels.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Is this why Apple jumped Thursday morning? - 'My take: If the gain holds for a week, this could be money in my pocket. I am still trying to decide if that was a wise move, putting the price of PED subscription based on April 1st aapl stock price. First I thought it was too much, but not now. Definitely a gutsy move.'