Hap Allen on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q1 2026 earnings - 'On the subject of the AI “race”: I don’t understand any of the GPU/CPU technical stuff (so would appreciate feedback), but this guy is saying that Apple is winning. https://youtu.be/31OyQa_3gZU'
on Did Ming-Chi Kuo take Apple shares down a peg? - 'Jim, my thoughts exactly. With TSMC, Apple sits at the head table and can commit to massive purchases of existing fab output and of their newest on-coming nodes. That guaranteed revenue carries a lot of weight with CC Wei – (see the transcript of their latest earnings call of last week to hear his wariness of committing 52-56 billion US dollars of capex and waiting/hoping to get future revenue in 2027-2028.) With memory suppliers, there are the big 3 (Micron, Hynix and Samsung) plus another Chinese one that’s coming on strong. While memory prices have doubled or whatever lately, one or more of these companies should be very interested in the cash Tim’s waving in front of them. A few billions will help pay for the new fabs they’re planning to build and get their equipment orders to the front of the line at ASML, ect.'
on Did Ming-Chi Kuo take Apple shares down a peg? - '@John: There was an analyst on Bloomberg discussing that drop and said he thought it was related to the monetary infusion that they have with $620 Billion in Open AI commitments. Coupled with the reason Oracle dropped so significantly was they had to reduce their commitment orders by half with AI and that’s the probably reason the negative drop in AH with Microsoft. Possibly another reduction of the AI commitments might be happening this time with Microsoft.'
on Did Ming-Chi Kuo take Apple shares down a peg? - ' Apple has the margins to spare, if needed. While competitors struggle to maintain company wide 20% gross margins, relying on unit volume for gross profit, Apple’s gross margins (company wide) have exceeded 40% for a few years, with no sign of let up until this issue popped up. If AI data centers are going to consume memory to the extent that massive price increases can be commanded, perhaps it behooves Apple to buy a memory design/fab firm large enough to satisfy its needs today and into the future. Or, at the very least, purchase a guaranteed volume. Quarterly contracts doesn’t sound right. That sounds like the spot market. Volume manufacturers require more predictability than that. It seems to me that for a firm like Apple, quarterly purchasing has gone beyond the point where ownership becomes necessary.'
on Did Ming-Chi Kuo take Apple shares down a peg? - 'The fact that they have historically built in such high margins on memory upgrades and the fact that they have a significant service business that produces annuity profits for each new customer puts Apple in an ideal position for the memory crunch. If they choose they can keep prices steady or a slight rise and eat a little margin on the hardware sale, gaining it back on the services side from additional market share – since competitors are forced to raise hardware prices.'
on Did Ming-Chi Kuo take Apple shares down a peg? - 'Might have something to do with higher CAPEX related to AI and also some funny accounting regarding ChatGPT. Meta is also down after announcing increased CAPEX spending. Since Apple is not involved in that sort of spending we shouldn’t expect that tomorrow.'
on Reuters: Apple tomorrow will report its strongest iPhone sales growth in four years - 'I hope you’re right, but as Greg pointed out, “they” are really good at finding *something* to bring the stock down afterwards.'
on Tim Cook's memo to Apple - 'I’ll clarify. I support the citizens of Minneapolis who have been harassed and terrorized by the paid insurrectionists. I do not support Walz and Frey who have done nothing to help the citizens of Minneapolis but have chosen to continue to escalate the insurrection. And I support Tim Cook’s right to do as he pleases on his time off without fear of repercussions.'
on Reuters: Apple tomorrow will report its strongest iPhone sales growth in four years - 'Considering how the stock moved last quarter after earnings and the price action the last couple of weeks I find it hard to believe that a lot positive news is baked in. I do have to laugh at the reporting trying to tell us what investors really want other than a record quarter. Apple you won this round but we are going to change the game so you will have trouble in the future. Trying to sound smarter than they really are. For instance when Apple said the Tariff issue was costing them a Billion dollars in a particular quarter or so some reporters mentioned that like it was a huge concern. Apple’s margins included the Tariff cost but declined to predict the future Tariff impact. Seemingly the logical response but somehow was described as a big headache. Ram pricing in the future might have the same effect on the stock price even if the real effect on the company is marginal. I think most of the people who have had grave concerns about Apple’s business have cost investors buying opportunities in the stock left and right. Not that the returns from Apple stock are always the highest in the business. There is always something out in the market which is growing faster than expected and giving high short term returns. Apple isn’t in that phase anymore. Still impressive and might turn on a spigot which will give it gaudy new profits. A very strong business with many possibilities to find new markets. Sounds like a good investment to me.'
on Tim Cook's memo to Apple - 'Good morning, Rick. The cynic will probably see this as an attempt to take the sting out of Mr. Cook’s appearance at the First Lady’s (yes, while that galls some, she is in fact the First Lady) film showing. I see that appearance as a small thing. OTOH, I see Apple CEO Cook’s call as heartfelt and a real attempt to defuse the situation before more people get hurt. That said, and contrary to your opinion, Rick, I see the blame for this escalation resting 100% on the head of President Trump. Simply put, his M.O. has always been “Divide And Conquer”. This President is the exact mirror image of Presidents Washington, Lincoln, and nearly every US President in history, who were uniters not dividers. Indeed, his predecessor in his first term, President Obama, was famous for reaching across the aisle and seeking consensus. Mr. Cook, cynicism aside, has always come across as someone trying to bridge divides, not create them. So this attempt to calm the waters is very much in keeping with his M.O. of conciliator. That said, the harsh reality of our world is that those who are driven by a thirst for power often see conciliators as weak, and thus people to be taken advantage of. And I do not believe for one second that this President isn’t one of those thirsters for power over everything else. So is Tim Cook just being played as a patsy? My guess is yes, but not necessarily without Mr. Cook’s full knowledge of that. Mr. Cook, IMO, is taking the long POV. He is doing his conciliation thing (as he has done with other world leaders) in order to make it possible for there to be, one day, a reconciliation. And that’s something that even you, Rick, should be on board with. Because the alternative is truly unthinkable in terms of pain and suffering.'
on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q1 2026 earnings - 'Any sort of new Services offering(s) through Apple Gemini Intelligence, and there will eventually be one, will be a windfall for Apple. I doubt it will debut tomorrow, but I bet they *allude* to it tomorrow. And that should get investors excited.'
on Tim Cook's memo to Apple - 'Rick Povich said: “Tim Cook calling for de-escalation is fine but it’s not his responsibility. It’s the responsibility of people in Minnesota who heretofore have no desire to de-escalate.” **Finally!! Someone who KNOWS what the people of Minnesota want! Thanks, Rick! /s'
on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q1 2026 earnings - 'PED says It’s usually all about the guidance. That is all that needs to be said. Maybe we should also be looking at where people think the guidance will be as well, especially since that seems more telling about where the share price will go after earnings. edited'
on Reuters: Apple tomorrow will report its strongest iPhone sales growth in four years - 'They’ll find something to tank the stock.'
on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'In morning trading Apple is off $2.37 at $255.90. A day after making a new all-time high the S&P 500 broke through 7,000 this morning. Performance of the index’s components on this back-to-back record-setting day is decidedly mixed. About 46% of index components are higher on the day in morning trading.'
on Tim Cook's memo to Apple - 'Rick wrote: “Tim Cook calling for de-escalation is fine but it’s not his responsibility. It’s the responsibility of people in Minnesota who heretofore have no desire to de-escalate.” For the record, I support the people of Minnesota.'
