Kirk Burgess on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings - 'Given its current growth rate, I don’t see Apple as undervalued at all. Have you all forgotten when Apple was truly unloved and trading with an ex-cash under 10x PE? Those were the crazy pills days. Trading at 34x PE is actually a bit of a premium.'
on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings - 'Troy, over the last 12 years, how much FCF has Apple exhibited? It looks to be between $800-900 B. NVDA looks to be less than $150 B FCF over the same 12 years. And NVDA has 24.3 B shares outstanding versus AAPL’s 15 1 B. Ergo, each Apple pie slice holds a bigger share of the company. Finally, I have zip against NVDA. My only point was in comparing its present quite decent valuation to Apple’s very low valuation, and saying the growth potential of both companies is broadly equal, IMO, hence the valuations should be equal. Now, you can argue that NVDA’s growth potential leaves AAPL’s in the dust, but you won’t know that for several years. This could be another “tortoise, meet hare” situation, for all any of us know. It may well be that NVDA will match Apple’s present historical FCF a few years from now, but in the meantime, I can guarantee you Apple won’t be holding still over the intervening years. Besides, I’m only talking about what I think Apple SHOULD be valued at, not what it will be valued at. As an investor who owns most of their shares from the early 2,000s, we love seeing Apple undervalued, because it gives them more bang per buyback buck.'
on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings - 'I’m not sure I see a growth catalyst to take us to a 42 PE. The Mac mini buying for Open Claw is going to die down. NVDA Free Cash Flow Growth (1Y): +58.87% AAPL Free Cash Flow Growth (1Y): +25.46%'
on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings - 'Between today and January earnings there are 5 Company controlled catalysts to move AAPL. April earnings and GUIDANCE WWDC July earnings and GUIDANCE October earnings and GUIDANCE January earnings and GUIDANCE If AAPL only gets a 3% bump from of each of these catalysts, then come February 1st AAPL will be trading at $303. I’m expecting more than that. Tomorrow I’ll be watching reported earnings and future GUIDANCE. If Apple guides another 16% YoY growth we’re off to the races. BTW, this will be the last easy YoY compare. Starting with July’s report the compare gets more difficult. January 2027 will get still more difficult, but AAPL’s future will look even brighter.'
on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings - 'Hmmm… based on Google’s earnings report and the market’s apparent response to it (assuming that the >6% jump continues after open tomorrow), mainly on the exceptional strength of its AI and cloud businesses, it would be a strange thing indeed if the market responds to what Apple has to say about its progress on AI, given that it’s partnered with Google in that. With Google’s results, recent product upgrades, Neo’s knocked-out-of-the-park debut, apparent 20% increase in iPhone sales YOY in China, and TC moving to Exec. Chairman and JT stepping up to CEO, etc, I’m be very surprised if Apple doesn’t have a very good report that the market responds to positively.'
on Mark Gurman: Apple is playing catch-up in AI darkroom tools - 'What would be much more useful is to collect Gurman’s predictions, and publish a scorecard between ‘those that happened’ and ‘those that were “hallucinations” by Gurman’.'
on Big bet on Apple puts - 'Thank you James and Greg, I guess there is no downside if someone else buys them and hence repays the borrowers debt for them. 😉'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'All, Reading a few comments this morning on multiple articles from PED, who BTW does a magnificent job with this site, I thought it might be of some benefit to pass along a snippet from the high court (SCOTUS) in an effort to set forth the reason for their recent decision. Even though I stay away from politics on this site and focus my comments only on news related to the business of Apple, I thought this particular passage from the SCOTUS decision might be of some benefit to those interested. While the decision is long and boring, as are most rulings from the high court, perhaps this particular passage will put into greater focus and clarity the basis for the ruling: “Properly understood, §2 thus does not intrude on States’ prerogative to draw districts based on nonracial factors, including to achieve partisan advantage. In short, §2 imposes liability only when the evidence supports a strong inference that the State intentionally drew its districts to afford minority voters less opportunity because of their race.” I encourage everyone interested to slog through their entire decision. But IMO, this particular passage at least for me, put their ruling into perspective. Now back to what Apple’s earnings will produce tomorrow after the bell. I’ve read a few opinions from the Wall Street types that essentially said Tim Cook would not have departed at this point in time unless the earnings were going to be very good. We will find out for certain about 24 1/2 hours from now.'
on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings - 'What I am referring to will happen tomorrow and following, based on Apple’s forecast'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'It looks like Starbucks is brewing up something good. Shares are up $9.06 today to $106.34. Comparable sales rose 6.2% in the most recent quarter yet analysts remain a bit cautious on the company. Into the last hour of today’s session and Apple is off $0.43 at $270.28. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft report today. Apple is on deck for tomorrow.'
on Mark Gurman: Apple is playing catch-up in AI darkroom tools - 'If you took all of Gurman’s analysis and strung them together, at least from what is posted here, you would think that Apple is on its last legs. I don’t mind people pointing out the negatives but he seems to go out of his way to do so. For his sake, I hope he is well compensated for selling his soul to whatever devil is willing to pay for it.'
on Mark Gurman: Apple is playing catch-up in AI darkroom tools - 'Bang on, Gregg. You are on a roll…!'
on Mark Gurman: Apple is playing catch-up in AI darkroom tools - 'I only use Pixelmator, which is now obviously an Apple product, and haven’t used photoshop since the first version of Pixelmator was released. I’m guessing photoshop is way ahead in its AI offering?'
