Gregg Thurman on Survey finds high iPhone Duo return rate - 'I think the reason for the high return rate (early adopters not being impressed) will seriously subside by Summer. It is those early adopters that are creating artificially high demand and abnormally skewed supply/demand curves. Once the early adopters have been flushed out of the supply/demand curve, delivery times will shrink to almost immediate. Also, as the number of explorers decline, ASPs will increase (fewer resold returns) and margins will increase (less buying of higher cost memory to accommodate higher artificial demand and less cost attributable to the handling of those returns).'
on Gene Munster: Like Apple after Jobs, Nvidia has an urgency problem - '”Urgency” is a familiar problem for anyone with an over-active bladder.” You mean most men over the age of about 70.'
on High praise for AMD's answer to the Apple Mac mini - 'I learned something. Being a non technical person, I never understood the importance of Kiraa to Apple’s silicon, and importantly, how Apple’s CPU architecture is so far ahead of the rest. I’m going to watch this video several times to the point that I can argue, what does what, and why Apple’s architecture is so much better than competing CPUs. The Mac Studio is more expensive than X86 based systems. But if performance is important to you, the extra cost isn’t a burden, it’s an asset. Apple silicon remains several years ahead of the competition. Oh, and I hope Kiraa is successful.'
on Survey finds high iPhone Duo return rate - 'Makes me think that there’s a real opportunity to buy a used Duo from Apple coming soon….'
on Survey finds high iPhone Duo return rate - 'Makes one wonder how many of the 6000 in the survey just randomly voted in order to see the reslts of a poll they just skewed?'
on Gene Munster: Like Apple after Jobs, Nvidia has an urgency problem - 'This summation from Horace’s Asymco wonderful post today, “L’État, c’est moi“: “I am the state.” – attributed to King Louise XIV “You’ll never find a spreadsheet model of culture. This is why black swans always surprise. Because they don’t have data behind the cause of failure. Nvidia faced a built-in concentration risk, and it’s not the only mega-cap that does. Prudence requires evaluation of risk beyond what is visible. I noted the concentration risk in my post The Last Consumer Company before the Nvidia scandal emerged. Concentration leads to corruption. It leads to immense risk. One could say that being subject to espionage or honeypots is just bad luck. It isn’t. It’s a consequence of concentration. If a great deal can be achieved with a single flip of a switch, a single act, a single fault it concentrates the minds of forces that want to achieve that change. It’s inevitable that temptations will be created and pressures will be applied. This is the tragedy. No matter what, Jensen Huang was going to get hung. It’s tragic that he set up the circumstances for his own demise. it is the essence of greek tragedy that the hero must fall.“'
on NYT handicaps Jensen Huang's potential successors - 'One thing not mentioned is how many people inside Nvidia knew about the illegal scandal of Nvidia chips getting to China, likely through Singapore. They may not have had sexual affairs that we know of, but what did they know and when did they know it?'
on Gene Munster: Like Apple after Jobs, Nvidia has an urgency problem - 'And the Nvidia scandal keeps enlarging with reports now that both Trump and Lutnick may have used inside info about the spying to dump Nvidia shares. I wonder who else may have done so, given the leaking that happens to much? I expect Congressional hearings or even criminal proceedings are going to take up alot of the time of the person who takes over Nvidia.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I just saw the AAPL 10 year chart on Apple News. If you bought and held an AAPL share 10 years ago, it’s now worth 12X what you paid.'
on High praise for AMD's answer to the Apple Mac mini - 'He makes it much easier to understand. But for me, this is still as confusing as options or the craps table in a casino. But he does a very good job of explaining all the subtle nuances in this computer and software world.'
on NYT handicaps Jensen Huang's potential successors - '“Here are some who have been suggested by headhunters, analysts and others” LOL – “others”, like Kalshi and Gemini. Yesterday, Kalshi had Kress, Buck, Srouji and Haas as the top 4. We all know where TC came from.'
on Survey finds high iPhone Duo return rate - 'If the number of returns is in any way remotely near that number then that, to me, indicates extraordinarily perverse consumer behaviour – a real lack of personal responsibility to make considered decisions. Such an inefficient drain on an economy.'
on Survey finds high iPhone Duo return rate - 'The Alex comment says it all. On-line surveys are almost always highly biased or completely useless. And that’s especially the case when participants aren’t verified as being either relevant to the question or necessarily honest.'
on Survey finds high iPhone Duo return rate - '“Pedestrian” Car and Driver. On purpose or by accident? Good one! 🙂'
on Survey finds high iPhone Duo return rate - 'I returned my Lamborghini after a week because it wasn’t for me. I’m waiting for my interview to be taken by: “The Robb Report”; “Elite Traveler”; “Upscale Magazine”; and of course the very pedestrian; “Car and Driver”'
on 2027 will be a big year for foldables, led by Apple - 'As usual with these kinds of articles the definition of the word’s used to describe the size of the market makes a difference. Does “Leading” the foldable market mean in unit sales? Or Revenue? Or Profit? Some combination of those metrics. Is the market for foldable phones growing if unit sales fall overall but revenue gained goes up? Apple is usually generating more revenue growth than unit sale growth. In this case the difference in revenue might not be as large as in the rest of the mobile phone market as there are not as many inexpensive foldable phones that drag down the market share of the premium lines. It is almost embarrassing for the other manufacturers that Apple’s entrance into foldable market is so significant.'
on Gene Munster: Like Apple after Jobs, Nvidia has an urgency problem - 'Apple’s board backed Scully over Jobs after an internal spat, leading to Jobs’ resignation from the company. Apple’s market cap in that period was a fraction of what it is now, and tech did not saturate the S&P 500 the way it does now. The crisis did not threaten the health of the economy. Nvidia engaged in financial roulette, backstopping the entire AI industry while also supplying China through a checkered intermediary, triggering alarm bells à la Super Micro Computer. We’ve yet to behold all the dirty details of their shenanigans, which have far reaching implications for our economy due to the size and scale of their operations. They are not the same.'
on Trump wants Cook at Nvidia - 'If we’re going to pay attention to who and what Donald Trump likes and doesn’t like at any given hour of any given day, it’s going to be a rollercoaster. The big question is whether he likes Tim Cook as much as he likes McDonald’s. I’d change your take, Philip, to “Trump, who knows next-to-nothing about anything, thinks like a reality TV show casting director.” Along those lines, I think Trump should host a reality TV search for Huang’s replacement, with a panel made up of him, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and Mr. T.'
on 2027 will be a big year for foldables, led by Apple - 'The idea of a big fish in a little pond comes to mind.'
on NYT handicaps Jensen Huang's potential successors - 'Tim Cook under Steve Jobs and then as CEO shows how important operational execution is. NVIDIA is a huge production business, as well as a design business and lately a finance business.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'What was that other major issue MS had several months back? Some kind of major potential security issue with world wide effect? Seems to have been quietly shunted aside. I don’t remember the details.'
on NYT handicaps Jensen Huang's potential successors - 'Getting an introduction to some of the players, however short and without any depth, is a good start for watching what happens here. I was thinking that, maybe, they don’t need the tech smarts and organizational smarts in just one person. Maybe they can split the job between 2 people with one person more obviously in charge. Especially since the tech part and the organizational part takes different skill sets.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I wonder if Apple shares will get a short term boost from this MSFT issue. Longer term, if it gets people to switch to Apple hardware and software, maybe we can get at least a minor tailwind for improved revenues.'
on Gene Munster: Like Apple after Jobs, Nvidia has an urgency problem - 'PED, I feel your ‘urgency’. But it’s worth distinguishing between ’emergency replacements’ and ‘planned, even if rapidly planned, transitions.’ When a board starts to consider replacing a CEO, presumably there’s time to figure out what they need, candidates, etc. But when the CEO is forced out after a scandal the board is presented with a fait accompli and is in reaction mode. How many CEOs have been forced out for ‘loose zipper syndrome’ in the last couple of years?'
on NYT handicaps Jensen Huang's potential successors - 'We know what dipshit spitballed TC. That ain’t happening, I’d bet my life on it. Not only that, he’s completely wrong for that job. Plus he’s Apple to the core (sorry for the pun). Johny Srouji has a snowball’s chance in hell but not ZERO. However, why in his right mind would he leave Apple to go to a scandal-ridden, one-trick pony? Can’t be money or prestige, at Apple he has both.'


