Recent Comments

  • Charles A. on Is this why Apple jumped Thursday morning? - 'This site’s value is waaay more than AAPL’s current share price. I seriously doubt there would be many if any defectors if Philip were to set a much more realistic level based on the considerable value add provided by the daily discussions on his site.'
  • Charles A. on Is this why Apple jumped Thursday morning? - 'PED’s My Take referred to Apple 3.0’s annual subscription fee, pegged to the stock’s April 1 closing price.'
  • David Emery on Google's breakthrough is Apple's gain - 'I wonder how Jevon’s Paradox considers investment and ROI. Coal mines aren’t cheap, but I’m not sure if they’re in the same level of investment as LLM infrastructure. Or to put it another way, when did increased sales of coal pay off the increased investment to get and distribute it?'
  • Gregg Thurman on How a friend of the bros sees Zuck's judicial comeuppance - '”He makes it sound like the NM AG did this for purely political reasons, to make himself look good. ” Does it matter why he did it? It needed to be done, and it was.'
  • Robert Stack on How a friend of the bros sees Zuck's judicial comeuppance - 'Thank you Bill as I was thinking exactly the same thing. He makes it sound like the NM AG did this for purely political reasons, to make himself look good. I’m glad there are still a few public servants – at least at the state level – who have the guts to stand up to some of the worst of these scoundrels.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Is this why Apple jumped Thursday morning? - 'My take: If the gain holds for a week, this could be money in my pocket. I am still trying to decide if that was a wise move, putting the price of PED subscription based on April 1st aapl stock price. First I thought it was too much, but not now. Definitely a gutsy move.'
  • Gregg Thurman on How a friend of the bros sees Zuck's judicial comeuppance - 'I knew there was a reason I don’t subscribe to Facebook, Instagram and all the other social media sites. Here’s hoping, after the other 48 States, the EU, et al, get through with Facebook and Zuckerberg, his empire is irrevocably broken.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Google's breakthrough is Apple's gain - 'I should have read more on TurboQuant before posting the above. TurboQuant is an improvement in memory COMPRESSION, not in memory silicon. So just forget everything I wrote above. Apple will use TurboQuant to reduce the amount of physical memory required to achieve current performance (thereby reducing the amount of physical memory required in a product’s bill of materials), while data centers will use TurboQuant to improve memory performance. TurboQuant improves memory through put on the same size memory silicon. Ostensibly you can get the same performance with 1/6th the memory silicon. What will be interesting is if Apple announces OSX (and its derivatives) will incorporate TurboQuant at this year’s WWDC.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Is this why Apple jumped Thursday morning? - '@Kirk: IIRC, PED had one share before the 4 for 1 split took place. My hunch is he’s sitting on 4 right now.'
  • Kirk DeBernardi on Is this why Apple jumped Thursday morning? - '“My take: If the gain holds for a week, this could be money in my pocket.” Don’t expect much, PED, holding one share — 😉'
  • Gregg Thurman on Google's breakthrough is Apple's gain - '”That may explain Neo’s aggressive pricing.” If true, it may also bode well for the following: A. Apple’s gross margins will expand even further, but not until Google’s new tech is in production. B. Apple could employ a Neo strategy across more of its product while maintaining gross margin %. We have to keep in mind that Apple does not control this technology. Ergo, competing manufacturers of computer devices will have equal access to it. The question then becomes will competitors use this technology the improve razor thin margins, or use it to protect unit market share? My guess it will come down to their pricing strategy, which is based on bill of materials COGS vs Apple’s pricing strategy is based on the value of the jobs done. It comes down to their pricing OS. Apple is the only purveyor of OSX and its derivatives. The competition uses Windows and Android which is available to anybody that thinks they can improve the wheel. The lack of exclusivity in the latter consigns that group to pricing according to COGS. That means Apple’s “competitors” will take advantage of lower cost memory to lower the prices of their products. This will force Apple to lower its prices so as to prevent the price gap between OSX and Windows/Android from increasing. Now all of the hot air above presupposes that Apple does not strike an exclusivity agreement with Google for a period of three years, just as Apple did with Toshiba for its 1.5” hard drive (used in the original iPod). The three year exclusive to commence when Google can supply at scale. In this scenario Apple could use the lower cost of memory to financially impair all of its competitors. The argument in favor of this course of action is that the build out of data centers (past and present) has left Google short of cash to build out the fabs necessary to supple demand for this new memory architecture. That isn’t a problem for Apple.'
  • Bill Donahue on Needham: Why the AI buildout hasn't paid off yet - 'I think that’s probably what’s actually been going on, David, as opposed to Laura Martin’s explanation. The testing began, and most CEOs are discovering that AI investment is currently not valuable, and future or on-going significant AI investment is on the chopping block, as opposed to employees.'
  • Richard Gayle on Google's breakthrough is Apple's gain - 'Apple’s Mixture of Experts allows one to effectively use models that are 1/10th the size of the entire LLM. If Goggle’s can independently reduce the size of models in memory by 6-fold, then we could enter a period when a working, functional LLM could be resident on a device, just as Apple has been working towards. Of course, the speed of this is dependent on the silicon on device and only Apple has the chips to do this.'
  • Richard Gayle on Google's breakthrough is Apple's gain - 'If I have read things right — Google’s approach deals with compressing memory specifically for AI, to lessen actual physical memory use. Apple’s “Mixture of Experts” changes how the LLM itself is organized to allow much smaller units of the larger system to be used locally. Google changes the overall size of the LLM resident in memory while Apple’s changes the LLM itself to use less memory. Now, can they both be used together?'
  • Fred Stein on Google's breakthrough is Apple's gain - 'Hmm, Perhaps Apple, working with Google on AI, saw this coming. That may have factored into negotiations with memory suppliers, who don’t want to be caught with massive CAPEX to build manufacturing capacity for demand that may slacken. That may explain Neo’s aggressive pricing.'
  • Fred Stein on Google's breakthrough is Apple's gain - 'Companion to Jevon’s Paradox is Wright’s Law. Wright (no direct relation to the brothers) coined this phrase from work in aviation manufacturing, noting that costs reduced with increased volume, a precursor to Moore’s Law.'
  • Bill Donahue on Premarket: Apple is red - 'As expected, the price of oil has now soared again. I wonder what trading in oil futures looks like, immediately after the big drop on Monday. If you have insider information about an upcoming announcement of a peace deal and can and do choose to make massive illegal profits off that knowledge, then you probably also understand that that announcement was entirely untrue, and have the ability to use that information to make equally massive illegal profits off the reverse trade.'
  • David Emery on Needham: Why the AI buildout hasn't paid off yet - 'The other side of the coin for a CEO is the risk equation. Employees are a known risk relative to their expense. AI might be cheaper, but what if an AI gets it badly wrong? What’t the likelihood of that? Is there a way to evaluate that risk prior to firing employees and ‘hiring’ AI?'
  • Greg Lippert on Google's breakthrough is Apple's gain - 'It’s early in the game and things are changing fast and furious.'
  • Bill Donahue on How a friend of the bros sees Zuck's judicial comeuppance - '“A politician at the end of the day, doing what politicians do. Scoring points against the current villain in chief, building a reputation on the wreckage of someone else’s failure, and calling it justice.” Kind of an odd take, given how clear the evidence is that Zuckerberg dismissed the warnings and evidence of harm to children, and ordered everyone to ignore it and push full steam ahead on maximizing usage and profits. Party A harms defenceless Party B (and millions of other Party Bs), with full knowledge of the harm prior to doing so, and does it solely to expand market domination, revenues and profits. Holding Party A to account under the law *is* justice, and is exactly what Attorneys-General exist to do. If someone’s looking for an example of a self-serving AG not pursuing justice, a better example is the current federal US AG.'
  • Bill Donahue on Needham: Why the AI buildout hasn't paid off yet - 'Right. It’s the empathy of CEOs and Boards for employees’ well-being that is preventing major companies adopting AI in operations from maximizing profit-potential, and not the fact that the huge majority of corporations have reported that their investments in adopting and implementing AI have had zero ROI, and in many cases have interfered in the efficient completion of work of sufficient quality, and even increased the time and effort to properly complete work. Because if there’s one thing that executive decision-makers of major companies are known for, it’s refusing to fire people if it’s only being done to increase profits, share prices, and executive performance bonus returns. I sense more than a bit of cognitive bias in this interpretation. So much so that it seems more like intentional blindness.'
  • Bill Donahue on Google's breakthrough is Apple's gain - 'It also bears pointing out that the paradox of Jevons Paradox is that new, more efficient technology results in increases in the rate of the use of physical resources. In the case of massive increases in compute efficiency described by Google, I don’t think anyone’s thinking that it will mean the capex for data centers will increase in the race for AGI based on LLMs. If anything, it should result in a big decrease in expenditures and resource consumption in relation to data centers. Big enough that at least some of the majors will put more resources into non-LLM R&D because of the increasing likelihood that LLMs are a dead end in the search for AGI. I’d say this isn’t really an example of Devons Paradox, although Devon’s Paradox does seem to apply to the data center / physical resources story thus far.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Needham: Why the AI buildout hasn't paid off yet - 'I believe that part of the friction is indeed a human element, but not necessarily an emotional connection. Some human jobs, or jobs done by humans require some sort of human element, and not just processing data and spitting out an answer or applying requests to algorithms. For example, if you have ever called a medical office with a complicated situation, and went round and round with a bot while thinking if only I could talk to a human, this would be so much easier. I believe the above graph is consistent with my assumption regarding the need, sometimes, for the human element.'
  • Bill Donahue on Google's breakthrough is Apple's gain - 'More importantly, the implications of Google’s announcement is that the hundreds of billions in annual capex that it and the other major AI providers are currently making on building out data centers are either i) sunk capital that will result in massive losses when compared to data centers based on this new technology, or ii) not going to happen to anywhere near the scale announced thus far. My guess is that the smart leaders will choose option ii). Which also has massive financial and economic implications related to not needing to buy as much land, pay for shovels, chips, concrete, steel, power infrastructure, and everything else that goes into building hundreds of billions of dollars worth of data centers all over the world, and all of the jobs that would be required to be filled in relation to all of those. The AI capex spend represents the majority of economic growth in the USA in the last year. Cut that spend amount by a significant amount because of tech development that increases compute efficiency by a large amount, and the economic ripples may become waves.'
  • Bill Donahue on Is this why Apple jumped Thursday morning? - 'Simple answer: no, an announcement of a 0.067% addition to domestic US spending plans in the next 4 years is not the reason that Apple’s stock price went in the opposite direction to the Big AI stocks’ drops. Assuming there’s a rational reason, it’s the growing recognition that Apple’s somehow put itself in the position of having an exceptional hardware lineup now on offer that meets all of Apple’s and Apple users’ expectations for quality and functionality and will dominate all of the relevant markets, while maintaining chip supplies, prices, and profits, and which that will also serve as the foundation for a fundamentally different approach to facilitating consumer access to AI. And all despite the “The end is nigh!” noise from the talking heads over the last two years that’s been hitting the stock every few months, and despite that Apple leadership has somehow navigated to this place without any of the mind-blowing (and financial statement destroying) capex that all of the rest of the “We will win A!” crowd of companies have tied their futures to.'
  • Stephen Gordon on Needham: Why the AI buildout hasn't paid off yet - 'Theoretical AI coverage = venture capital ROI enrichment x infinity. No introspection required.'
  • Joseph Bland on How a friend of the bros sees Zuck's judicial comeuppance - 'Great comment, PED!'
  • David Emery on How a friend of the bros sees Zuck's judicial comeuppance - 'The entire case was built around the design. Infinite scroll, autoplay, algorithmic feeds, notification systems. Those are not user posts. Those are the company’s own engineering decisions, made in their labs, tested on their servers, optimized by their employees. CBS News put it plainly: this case centered around how the apps are designed, not the content itself. Section 230 does not protect you from your own product choices. I’ve always thought (IANAL) that the “we’re just the delivery channel” argument that allows Facebook, et.al. to disclaim responsibility should NOT APPLY when those platforms algorithmically select content they display. That’s more than just “being the wire the bits move along.”'
  • Steven Philips on Is this why Apple jumped Thursday morning? - 'A nice “little” bump so far. But similar bumps have been falling back. Still in that under 260 trading range. So I don’t give it much credit until it breaks through.'
  • Steven Philips on Google's breakthrough is Apple's gain - 'Is this different from what was noted the other day about Apple using LLMs to train smaller models to gain efficiency on small devices? It sounds different. And that sounded like it was attributed to Apple. But I can’t tell.'