Greg Lippert on John Ternus: The TIME interview (video) - 'Agreed! “(Cybertruck) is a vehicle so visually belligerent it appears constructed to win an argument no one knew they were having.” Awesome.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'I think that with all the possible negatives floating around investors are just hedging going into earnings.'
on Apple to Duo walk-ins: Don't even try - '6:14 AM EST I just checked delivery estimates over a wide spectrum of Duo configurations: they all show January 25, the same as Monday. Is it possible that Apple’s order system can’t show a delivery date greater than 3 months out?'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'As John points out above, Apple dropped exactly 1% in Tuesday trading, dropping $3.44 to close at $339.50. Overnight the shares have continued to slip and are currently down $1.96 at $337.54. In the face of rising interest rates and the impact of rising rates on economic growth, Apple isn’t the only enterprise that will be experiencing price target adjustments over the next several weeks.'
on Loop Capital downgrades Apple, cuts target $40 to $330 - 'Exactly, David. Think about it. When these orders were placed, what, 3-6 months ago, Apple probably wasn’t 100% sure when the Duo would be released. They were, and still are it seems, having yielding problems. So they probably placed enough orders to have ample supply without the Duo. The Duo is released, they know demand, and they’re cutting orders. This data point of 13 million, if true, screams as a net positive to me.'
on Loop Capital downgrades Apple, cuts target $40 to $330 - 'macrumors com/2026/07/01 /apple-has-cut-iphone-17-production/ This details weibo reports that Apple cut iPhone 17 line production as of mid July by 15% for the rest of the year. That would suggest stopping the 17 Pro lines, letting availability run out by end of quarter when it naturally is discontinued (without discounts to clear inventory) and slow iPhone 17 base shipments and move common memory parts over to the 18 Pro’s and Duo. BUT, IDC preliminary Q3 CY2026 shipments showed this: Apple 57.3M 22.4% vs 59.7M 18.2% 2025, -4.0% YoY So that’s only -2.6M shipments. Did Loop think -7M were cut from a target of some 64.3M??? “For the December quarter, Loop now models 79 million iPhone units, compared with the Street’s 85 million. It cut its average selling price estimate to $1,123 from $1,239.” That’s another -6M YoY, if true, actual cut of only -8.6M. Somewhere Loop isn’t showing the math and we didn’t hear any (Nikkei) reports of Q3 cuts but rather shifts, or perhaps saves is the better term, of parts like memory to 18 Pro models and Duo as 17 Pro manufacturing was winding down. Maybe even Air and e memory being moved to 18 Pro launches. Here’s the Security Times of China report that came out recently and Western analysts ignore completely vs citing ad nauseum the incomplete Nikkei report. [Exclusive] Apple increases iPhone Duo orders by 30%, total iPhone 18 Pro series orders remain unchanged. Source: People’s Finance & Economics; Author: Yan Cui; Date: 2026-10-10 14:12 People’s Finance News, October 10th – On October 10th, a reporter from the Securities Times exclusively learned from Apple’s supply chain that Apple has structurally adjusted its order volume for new mobile phones in the fall of 2026: orders for the iPhone Duo have increased by 30%, but the total volume still does not exceed 10 million units; orders for the iPhone 18 Pro have been cut by 10%-15%, while orders for the iPhone 18 Pro Max have increased by 10%-15%, with the total order volume for the iPhone 18 Pro series remaining unchanged. “This means that sales are shifting towards higher-value products, so overall it’s beneficial to the performance of Apple’s supply chain companies,” an Apple supply chain source told the reporter. https://stcn.com/article/detail/4211053.html When I asked Gemini about the situation: “The iPhone Duo / Ultra Factor: According to analysts on platforms like Digitimes and tech columnists on Macworld, Apple is concurrently increasing allocations and shifting components to the ultra-premium foldable iPhone Duo (or iPhone Ultra). Because the standard 18 Pro and the foldable Duo share identical high-cost components—specifically the 2nm A20 Pro processors and specialized memory—Apple reallocated 15–20% of its component supply to accommodate roughly 10 million initial foldable units.” This is important especially in light of reports from Weibo also that Pro was cut by 10-15% but Pro Max was increased by 10-15%, net no change in total number but more favorable ASP mix (something Lee and everyone else seemingly willfully ignores as it doesn’t fit the negative narrative). And if true, how does ASP go DOWN when more Pro Max and Duo are being demanded and sold? Loop thinks the total sold will be diminished and somehow the remaining 17, with a price hike of $100 to $899 too, would be the predominant seller along with the 17e, Air and 16, which all got $100 raise too? I don’t buy the math or reasoning either.'
on Loop Capital downgrades Apple, cuts target $40 to $330 - 'The other thing that I suspect a lot of ANALysts are missing is that most Duo sales cannibalize iPhone 18 Pro sales. So Duo sales should add to the bottom line. Does anyone -here- believe that Apple will make less money on a Duo than on an 18 Pro/Pro Max?'
on More analysts weigh in on Apple - 'David, The markets, like the people that follow them, are rarely rational. They bring their biases and peccadilloes with them. My take has always been to buy companies that I want to own for a while and let them run. Analysts/Investment companies and the market makers make money with churn so they do things to help that happen. Sort of like click bait. I take it all with a grain of salt. Both the good and the bad. I have seen some people be real good with churn. I think most aren’t. The buy and hold strategy has, so far, served me well. And I don’t have to be chained to a monitor in order to make/not lose money. The analysts that follow Apple and seem to have a negative view of the company and the stock, they base it on their negative assumptions and biases about the company(really, the same goes, to a degree, for those positive about Apple). It makes no real sense to change a price target on a $300 stock by a couple of bucks. But because of their assumptions and databases, the analysts do it all the time. It is definitely not a rational system. But it does seem to make sense to them and the companies that employ them. Edited'
on Loop Capital downgrades Apple, cuts target $40 to $330 - 'The elephant in the room just walked in last week: absurd lead-times for iPhone Duo pre-orders. It looks like Jan 25 availability has now held for 3+ days. I would guess that Apple’s operations team is doing its best to assess the long-term Duo demand before sending out production change instructions to all the Duo’s component suppliers. They may wait until a few days after the general public gets their hands on the first units and then get with marketing and sales to assess the level of ramp-up required. We’ll likely start hearing rumors about the results of this process in the next two weeks. The narrative will then shift from cannibalization of the Pro and Pro Max to increased ASP’s, margins, and the hotly desired new iPhone form factor.'
on More analysts weigh in on Apple - 'I’m not as smart as one of these ANAL-cysts, but I do know the Duo is backordered through the end of the year, Apple described the demand as “nothing short of extraordinary,” and now delivery dates are being revised closer to now, as Apple adds production lines and solves bottlenecks. This makes forecasting iPhone sales for the next two quarters unusually tricky. My bet: iphone sales + profit margins will be better than expected on account of the Duo. Also, home stuff will sell well just from people replacing their old products with better ones that will do 4-speaker TV audio and AI-Siri. These things aren’t properly accounted for yet.'
on More analysts weigh in on Apple - 'Same old thing: Apple’s out of the open market and in its normal blackout (actually this time a bit longer blackout), and probably out of generating ASPs as well, due to its high relative valuation. Predictably, its “overdue correction” is being hypothesized in the gutter press, weighing down its valuation, and allowing a lower buy-in price before the price is “allowed” to skyrocket yet again. Rinse and repeat ad infinitum. The only thing that’s different is (1) the house-of-cards economy and (2) the much reduced volume that the traders have to play with – the investors having learned to buy, hold, and not panic out, thus taking advantage of these pullbacks to add to their holdings and thus, like Apple, remove even more AAPL from trading play.'
on More analysts weigh in on Apple - 'The bottom feeders are at it again, and the market willingly complies'
on Loop Capital downgrades Apple, cuts target $40 to $330 - 'Talking about Apple, here’s an in-depth interview/discussion about Apple from Deepwater Asset Management, with Gene Munster. Season 1, Episode 1: Apple. “It’s about generational tech companies, not the daily noise. Episode 1 goes back to the company we know best: Apple. What made it great, and what it needs to do to stay great for the next 20 years.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c32AhJTj69I'
on UK to Apple: Loosen your grip on friction-free payments - 'Apparently, if something like Apple Pay works smoothly, perfectly, and consumers are quite pleased to use it for their purchases, these regulators are insisting that you have to use a shit*y competitor? How is that innovation?'
on Apple to Duo walk-ins: Don't even try - 'I look to the future when memory prices revert to “normal”. Apple will have gotten their customers used to higher prices. As memory prices tumble, Apple will have the option of maintaining prices and pushing GM way up or reducing prices (increasing demand) and only slightly raising GM. A nice problem either way.'
