Recent Comments

  • Rodney Avilla on Nate B. Jones' on Apple's AI strategy (revisited with index) - '“A warning to Nvidia and the data center supply chain…” I think Apple is serving a different customer than Nvidia and the data centers. Retail vs Commercial. Individuals vs Businesses. Consumers vs Suppliers. The Masses vs smaller groups. Those who like a search engine on steroids vs thoses who need agentic AI. People who need picks and shovels vs companies that need backhoes.'
  • Bill Fouche on Siri is dead. Long live Siri AI - 'I am a little late to deep-diving Siri AI, but after watching the two technical videos PED posted in the past few days, I am increasingly convinced that Apple has hit a home run. Many in our little community understood this before I did. But I think that Apple’s unique approach is superior (and more profitable) than Apple’s recent past) on several levels: 1) Apple will soon offer the only way to use AI extensively on a tiny device while preserving privacy, and Apple has built its entire stack around “privacy first.” 2) This increases the benefit (and therefore what people will be willing to pay) to users of buying an iPhone or iPad. It also increases the comfort level of people like me who have been very suspicious of cloud-based AI chatbots. 3) The best, fastest, and smoothest AI path for at least the next several years will be the one that can be done on the device itself, without uploading to Private Cloud Compute. The percentage of queries that can be done on device will increase with every new iPhone generation for a few years, possibly many years. 4) The more onboard memory a device has and the better the silicon, the more that can be done without much (or any) cloud involvement. So there will be incentive for some users to upgrade more often. Android phones simply do not do AI this way. And there is little incentive for Google to move in the “on device” direction. I think it is possible we are on the cusp of another AAPL great leap forward. As always, it will take the financial media a while to figure this out. And then they will be nodding their heads, as though they knew it all along. (The “two technical videos” I refer to are those by Max Weinbach of Creative Strategies, and the other by Nate Jones. I would not have found these on my own without PED’s help. And I would not have persevered to watch them to the end if other posters had not sung their praises. This is a good example of why this blog is valuable to me. Thanks to all.)'
  • Bart Yee on Siri is dead. Long live Siri AI - 'I’m posting this here because it applies, this is a transcripted comment on the Nate B Jones WWDC breakdown video from yesterday, Nate really got what Apple is trying to do and why he thinks Apple will succeed: Courtesy of @EZTP-g9y: Highlights by TubeLens: 00:00 Apple’s WWDC Al strategy is not about building the best model but about owning the ‘trusted action surface’ – the device, OS, app permissions, and Siri interface — where personal Al becomes useful for ordinary consumers. 02:29 Siri is just the face of a much deeper stack: it now sits on top of personal context, screen awareness, app actions, Spotlight semantic index, Apple Foundation Models, and Private Cloud Compute – making the OS itself feel agentic. 06:02 App Intents is the critical developer-layer compromise: it lets the OS call into apps without killing the App Store ecosystem, turning apps into callable OS functions while preserving Apple’s distribution control and revenue. 09:41 Apple partnered with Google to use Gemini family technology in its next-generation Foundation Models, and expanded Private Cloud Compute into Google Cloud on Nvidia GPUs – suggesting Apple is willing to commoditize model capability and infrastructure in order to own the user-facing layer. 11:53 The macro question is which of two Al bottlenecks wins: raw compute (Nvidia’s domain) or the trusted action surface (Apple’s target). If personal Al migrates onto devices and OSes, it fundamentally disrupts the economics that currently favor cloud GPU providers. 15:52 For developers building on Apple platforms, the winning strategy is no longer a flashy chatbot – it’s making app data models, permissions, and actions clean enough that Apple Intelligence can actually operate them via App Intents. 17:23 The ‘trillionaire’ framing: the first company to own the default surface through which a billion people touch Al — not necessarily the company with the biggest model or cloud cluster – will capture disproportionate long-term Al value.“ The key phrases for me is Apple owns and earned the “trust” part of the user – company relationship, in privacy, data security, paying attention to what users want and need, and NOT giving into vacuuming up user data and somehow bartering or selling it off elsewhere. Can NVidia say that about systems running its Spark chips, Windows, and AI apps? Can HP, Lenovo, Dell, ASUS, and others make the same promise or claim? Can Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, etc. promise and show data security while handling your data? And what are the long term recurring costs of tokens, subscriptions and regular and accelerated use of cloud AI vs the more cost, energy and security effective use of local Apple Mac, iPad and iPhone AI under the local control of users, small and large businesses and developers? A lot of potential users are going to be asking themselves these very questions and coming up with some hard questions and choices, especially if Spark devices come in much higher priced (and possibly much lower profits) than equivalent Macs.'
  • Roger Schutte on Mark Gurman on Siri AI - 'You won’t have to upgrade…lowly 2021 MacBook Pro with M1 Pro with 16GB ram and iPhone 16 Pro here.'
  • Stephen Gordon on Premarket: Apple is green - 'It was based on bringing consciousness to the stars.'
  • Daniel Epstein on An influencer from Nottingham switches from Apple to Android - 'Well I don’t know anyone who has switched lately but recently someone has moved into my apartment building and joined the group text we use for community communications. They are an Android user. Now the group text shows up as two different text threads where some replies end up on one or the other even when replying or answering to e recent activity. Very easy to miss part of the information. This apparently is a known issue when mixing IPhone and Android on group texts. The Tower of Babel creeping in. Pretty nuts that after all these years of texting that this is a problem.'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Siri is dead. Long live Siri AI - 'Not my only iPhone but with you trying it, Mr. PED, I will install Beta27 on my “sacrifice” iPad but back it up I will first.'
  • ben luna on Saturday Apple Video: Building NeXT from the ground up (1986) - 'Wonderful video! David, I could not agree more. He was definitely from a more civilized era. Also I wish the Apple presenters would learn from Steve instead of whoever their coaches are teaching them. Mind to hands to words is what it looks like to me. Apple is so big now that these kinds of conversations are difficult to have. I think that Steve would have found a way to scale up these conversations in the face of such success. It is a pity that we lost him so soon,'
  • Bart Yee on TSMC can't make enough 3nm wafers to meet AI demand - 'Gregg and everyone, yes, there’s no doubt Apple will get first priority on 2nm production since they’ve essentially prepaid for probably 250 million A-20 chips, meaning ordering 310-330+M chips, and say 20M M6 chips, meaning ordering up to 27M at supposed 75-80% yields. But that doesn’t guarantee anything in actual production yield terms for the future because 2nm has yet to enter full production, but initial 2nm yields look promising. Here’s a look at current 3nm TSMC production from Gemini: “TSMC’s 3nm yields vary significantly by die size, ranging from 85–92% for small dies, 60–75% for medium dies, and 45–65% for large GPU-class dies. These highly advanced processes have achieved a strong, mature, and stable mass-production rate. TSMC’s 3nm family has several iterations, with specific parameters and yields differing by node: Yields by Die Size Small Dies ( 600 mm²): 45–65% yield. 3nm Node Variants N3 (Original): The first generation used for Apple’s initial 3nm silicon. Early yields required special billing agreements for clients, but maturity has since stabilized. N3E (Enhanced): Widely adopted, offering a wider manufacturing window, better overall yields, and cost-effectiveness over the N3 node. N3P & N3X: Optimized for higher performance and compute capabilities, seeing widespread usage across major tech companies like Qualcomm, AMD, and NVIDIA. Cost and ProductionWafer Pricing: An average 300mm 3nm wafer costs roughly $19,500, though pricing ranges from $17,000 to $22,000 based on client volume commitments. Competitive Edge: Compared to competitors like Samsung—whose 3nm node yields have reportedly struggled to cross the 50% threshold—TSMC’s mature output rate of up to 90% for smaller logic chips has made it the primary destination for the industry’s highest-profile chip designs.” Regarding TSMC 2nm production progress: “TSMC successfully commenced volume production of its 2nm (N2) chips, transitioning from the FinFET architecture to Gate-All-Around (GAA) nanosheet transistors. Production is currently active at Fab 22 in Kaohsiung, with further capacity rolling out at the Fab 20 plant in Hsinchu. The ramp-up has progressed rapidly across several key areas: High Initial Yields: Early prototype and pilot yields have been exceptionally strong, reportedly surging to 70%—significantly accelerating the path to full commercial availability. Enhanced Performance: Compared to the 3nm (N3E) process, N2 technology delivers a 10%-15% speed increase at the same power level, or a 25%-30% reduction in power at the same speed, along with up to a 20% increase in transistor density. Capacity Scaling: The company is currently building or ramping up 9 fab phases simultaneously across Taiwan, the US, Japan, and Germany. TSMC expects N2 capacity to reach up to 90,000 wafer starts per month (WSPM) and is pushing for a 70% yearly increase in this advanced capacity through 2028 to keep pace with demand. Customer Adoption: Major industry leaders are already committed. Companies like Apple (for A-series mobile processors) and NVIDIA (for HPC GPUs) are primary early adopters, while AMD’s sixth-generation Epyc (Venice) server processors are slated to be built on this technology. Premium Pricing: Wafer costs for the 2nm process are estimated to exceed $30,000, nearly doubling the cost of 4nm wafers, which will likely constrain initial adoption primarily to flagship and AI applications.”'
  • Steven Philips on Premarket: Apple is green - 'It’s a (re)start, I guess. I just hope Muskrat hasn’t pulled all the cash away from other stocks. Curious about what Space X valuation was based on.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on An influencer from Nottingham switches from Apple to Android - 'Kirk: Actually, no. If I did start getting green bubble texts from a friend I’d consider it a distress call and I’d contact them to make sure almost everything was OK and then I’d ask about the phone.'
  • Steven Philips on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/15-6/19/26) - 'I’m waiting for the market to realize that the agreement was signed – in invisible ink! 🙂'
  • Kemble Widmer on Mark Gurman on Siri AI - 'David, Agree, and in same boat (most of my Apple devices are spec’d out to their max when I bought them for photography editing (for example MacBook Pro M3 Max). I will be upgrading that and my iPad Pro 3rd gen. Very much an amateur at all other computing beyond photography editing.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/15-6/19/26) - 'US index futures are up bigly on news of a peace deal with Iran. At 9:15pm in the east, 6:15pm here in the west, Russell 2000 futures are up 1.73%., Nasdaq futures are up 1.83%, S&P futures have gained 0.99% and the Dow futures are in the green 0.80%. Overnight Apple is up $1.15 or 0.40% at $292.28.'
  • David Wilson on Mark Gurman on Siri AI - 'That sounds pretty good to me. In fact, if my M2 Max MacBook Pro with 32 gigs of RAM can’t do it, I might have to upgrade. I have that machine for heavy lifting photography, and it’s still great for that, but I also want these capabilities that you’ve described. And they will only get better. If I’m upgrading a machine that is already strong enough for pro-level high resolution digital photography, how many others are also going to want to upgrade just for these capabilities? Or am I just a nerd? Is this going to kick off an AI upgrade cycle?'
  • Fred Stein on Jeff Bezos' WashPo takes Apple's side against the EU - 'Here’s another logic anomaly. Why is iOS a gatekeeper with only 27% of shipments. The iPhone holds between 27% and 42% of the European smartphone market, depending on whether you measure unit shipments or active operating system usage.” Apple is penalized because they don’t ship sh!t.'
  • Fred Stein on Jeff Bezos' WashPo takes Apple's side against the EU - 'Time is on Apple’s side. As we go from developer to beta to GA, Apple, EU, and Vox Populi have time to hash it. Because the DMA only applies iPhones and iPads, people will question the logic. The EU ‘logic’ is the Mac doesn’t meet the market share threshold for DMA to apply.'
  • Fred Stein on Jeff Bezos' WashPo takes Apple's side against the EU - 'Apparently the impasse only applies to iPhones and iPads. From FindSkill dot ai. Here’s the strangest wrinkle in the whole story. The DMA gatekeeper designation that’s blocking this covers iOS and iPadOS — not Apple’s other platforms. The result, confirmed in Apple’s briefings to reporters this week: iPhone and iPad in the EU: no Siri AI at launch Apple Vision Pro in the EU: Siri AI from day one Mac in the EU: macOS Golden Gate lists the full set of new Siri features, with no EU carve-out announced'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Jeff Bezos' WashPo takes Apple's side against the EU - 'The EU’s DMA is just a tax on American Big Tech.'
  • Gregg Thurman on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/15-6/19/26) - '”In my view, Apple is ahead in the game.” I agree, and I can’t help but think of MSFT at the turn of the Century. First there were desktop computers, a market that was handed to MSFT by way of IBM’s anti-trust problems over its OS (mainframe) dominance. MSFT won the OS war with a piece of crap that was cheaper than anything else. Then to protect its dominance MSFT didn’t innovate, it did some nasty things that got them in big trouble, and created a crack for Apple to exploit. And exploit Apple did. But now faced with the same scenario as MSFT 30 years ago, Apple is taking a different path to exploit the new paradigm, instead of strong arming its competition. Except for the copiers and luddites like Gurman, Apple has quietly positioned itself to own the consumer (70% vs 30% enterprise) market for AI (with no competition), no matter what the Gurman’s think.'
  • Robert Stack on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/15-6/19/26) - 'Wait a second Greg – are you talking about AI or Elon?! 🙂'
  • Robert Stack on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/15-6/19/26) - 'Hi Steven. Yes, I just saw the WaPo editorial and was surprised (to say the least!) that they castigated the EU using access to “New Siri” as the example. Here’s an open link for anyone interested: https://wapo.st/4ehSqfi'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/15-6/19/26) - 'Gregg: I don’t think you missed anything. At its core Apple is a consumer products company. Billions of people around the world will be introduced to and work with AI through the devices they carry in their pockets, carry around in your hands or place on a desk and have a larger screen. Apple seeks to own those spaces and do so with products and services that are intuitive to how humans interact with technology and how we desire to communicate with the world. In my view, this was effectively communicated to the world during last week’s keynote address. If Apple is successful, and I expect the company to succeed, it will ignite a robust super cycle for iPhones, Macs and iPads and entice developers to deliver product for distribution through the App Stores. The company is keeping private what is best to keep private and keeping secure what need to be kept secure. So much of what we read today is unnecessary techno gobbledegook. Does the solution deliver the desired results for consumers? After Monday’s Keynote I say, “Yes.” In my view, Apple is ahead in the game.'
  • David Emery on An influencer from Nottingham switches from Apple to Android - 'Gregg, that probably depends on the quality of the lens(es) you have with that camera. Lenses have improved dramatically in the last 50 years (a friend said “lens design is sufficient justification for very expensive supercomputers”)'
  • Gregg Thurman on An influencer from Nottingham switches from Apple to Android - 'I still have a KOWA SET SLR bought in Japan while there in 1968. Does that count? I haven’t used it in ~50 years.'
  • Joseph Bland on TSMC can't make enough 3nm wafers to meet AI demand - 'Hi, Bart, Richard, and others. Yep. Apple has been “bankrolling” chip manufacturers for years. You don’t shaft the (very powerful) company that’s literally put you where you are; rather the opposite. BTW, that also goes for China in general. They owe Apple a lot….'
  • Richard Gayle on TSMC can't make enough 3nm wafers to meet AI demand - 'TSMC is expanding its wafer fab plant in Sherman Texas, which just started producing wafers 6 months ago. At full buildout, it could produce over 1 million wafers a month. And Apple is funding some of it. From Apple: “GlobalWafers has begun production at its new $4 billion bare silicon wafer facility in Sherman, Texas. At Apple’s direction, wafers produced in Sherman will be used by Apple’s chip manufacturing partners in the U.S., including TSMC and Texas Instruments.”'
  • Kirk DeBernardi on An influencer from Nottingham switches from Apple to Android - 'Question: Does anyone here in this forum know of anyone who has switched and stayed? Still to this day, so very, very few. Cook-era 98% sat rate stands firm.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Mark Gurman on Siri AI - '”I suspect Apple will not mind this arrangement one bit” Of course not. Apple is going to get paid for preferential placement as Siri AI’s go to complex solution LLM in default settings.'