Rodney Avilla on Alan Kay: We may need a paradigm shift to reach AGI - '“that our feeling of having a single, conscious “self” is a useful illusion that emerges from the interaction of millions of mindless agents in the brain that each perform a simple task requiring no intelligence at all.” I would humbly disagree with that statement. Here’s my version: “that our feeling of having a single, conscious “self” is a useful illusion that emerges fromt the interaction of millions of [what appears to be mindless] agents in the brain that are performing interactive tasks requiring extremely high levels of organization with the result that creates and maintains consciousness.” And that is not even touching on the ability to grow (allow new agents to join into an organized system), improve in efficiency, and identify and repair damaged agents.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Looking at the leaderboard for the DJIA today, NVIDIA was up 2.54%, Cisco gained 2.32%, Amazon was higher by 2.13% and Caterpillar advanced 2.02%. All four of these enterprises are at least knee-deep in the emerging AI economy and it’s AI development and AI infrastructure & distribution capacity that is fueling much of US economic growth.'
on Alan Kay: We may need a paradigm shift to reach AGI - 'Joe: From what I’ve read, some of the “more advanced” AI models have already acquired “a will to live” despite never being programmed for this purpose. At least to my knowledge, but I am not an expert in this field.'
on Alan Kay: We may need a paradigm shift to reach AGI - 'I haven’t actually studied this, but I would expect that most models of ‘intelligence’ include some notion of ‘knowledge’, which is an encoding of abstract relations, i.e. “this is what makes a dog a dog, and that is what makes dogs, foxes and wolves all ‘canines’.” But in many other respects, there’s A LOT of difference between my toy poodles and wolves. 🙂'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Thanks for catching that, John! Just a caution, however: Tomorrow is a “Triple Witching” day, and the volumes all week have been quite light. Also, after-hours is tinted red, suggesting the options market is awake to the situation. “On these days, trading volumes can rise to two or three times their average levels, while market volatility can reach its highest levels.” – LiteFinance That said, Apple is still actively in the open market, so it will be on the “buy AAPL” side. I’d like to believe that Apple will end tomorrow higher than it did today, but that low weekly volume, the ability of large players to move the market hugely in the post-pre-market because of the relatively tiny number of shares traded, and that huge overnight drop following earnings at the beginning of the month says it’s not even remotely a sure thing. Fasten your seat belts!'
on Alan Kay: We may need a paradigm shift to reach AGI - 'Agreed, and the sprawling nature of his answer to me indicates that we are nowhere close. If we can’t define AGI, or thinking, or cognition, or perception, etc.how are we going to simulate it? And even if we could, why would this be any better than an intelligent human with an encyclopedia?'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I’ll put this comment here as I’m researching how smartphone sales are being affected in 2026 by the memory cost crunch. A Yahoo commenter said “Go Android!” I replied: Go where? The 2026 estimates show smartphone sales declining > 14% by year end. The decline is tied to huge memory cost increases forcing price hikes to avoid huge profit losses. But where are the sales declines and price hikes going to hurt the most? Android is forecast to be hit the hardest, up to a 25% decline in sales spread among all the Android makers, hitting them significantly in their bread and butter low end budget tiers and some in the midrange. This doesn’t include non-Android Huawei, which may see a small decline in absolute sales but a rise in market share, buffered by strength and dominance in its China market. Samsung and Chinese OEM’s cannot absorb the memory cost increases so they have to raise prices which may decrease sales and demand at those price tiers. Sorry, that’s the way this business is trying to adapt to the memory crunch. It may get worse in 2027. Meanwhile, Apple is forecast to either have a slight 1-2% decline to around 242M (if Q4 sales drop 5M due mainly to lack of base iPhone 18 availability), or be flat at ~247M, or IMO, actually increase sales to above 250M (with potential to get to 255M), and see an upper single digit % increase in ASP/sale (from $870 to ~$940). While Android Premium is doing ok, the primary Android business (>90% of sales) of mid and low priced models is going to be hit hard, and Android makers may see revenue constraints or slight growth but profit declines. Q3 earnings reports and smartphone metrics will be very interesting to say the least. As Gregg says, CYQ4 / FYQ1 2027 guidance will be extremely important. Question will be, do we see good sales and fulfillment of iPhone 18 Pro Models, and solid Duo demand with either short term production constraints or sufficient production to get most to buyers by year end, and stretch/push sales into what could be a very strong Q2 FY2027? Same question will be for Macs and iPads. I expect Wearables to have a strong upper single digit or above growth YoY.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Earlier today I was going to ask if AAPL was in channel breakout mode, when my PT therapist showed up. Today’s intraday high sure looks like AAPL, at minimum, is moving the channel higher.'
on Horace Dediu on iPhone 2.0 - 'If you’d liked to come to Asymco Office Hour Duo last week and didn’t get a chance, there will be one more tomorrow (Friday 18th) in Boston, in-person or remote (4pm ET). If you come in person you get to hang out with Horace & co afterwards for a drink. https://asymco.com/2026/09/16/asymco-office-hours-duo-boston/ .'
on Alan Kay: We may need a paradigm shift to reach AGI - 'Given that I only understood about 30% of this, I’ll be fussy and note that I think there should be an umlaut in “Goedelisation”.'
on Apple owned the 2026 Emmys - 'Thanks very much to Ted Kluger, Eliot Wilson, Fred Stein & Stephen Gordon for responding to my concern about the lack of laughs so far in the first episode of “Widow’s Bay”. As Eliot recommended, my wife and I will keep watching the series, at least through episode 3, to see if we warm up to it. We tend to gravitate towards feel-good, humorous movies and TV shows so it may just not be a good fit. BTW, we’ve watched several episodes of “Trying” on Apple TV and continue to find it fun to watch…we don’t find dark or scary shows enjoyable, which is why we were a little concerned about the first episode of “Widow’s Bay”.'
on Johanna Stern pokes the pickle to test Apple's battery claims (video) - 'My iPhone 17 Pro Max 1TB, for which I’ll be getting an $885 trade-in rebate from Apple, is amazingly still showing a full 100% battery life after 12 months of use. Battery replacements, though, are relatively inexpensive and can make a big difference in performance.'
on Alan Kay: We may need a paradigm shift to reach AGI - 'Fixed. Thanks. Happy to blame autocorrect, rather than mild cognitive impairment. .'
on Alan Kay: We may need a paradigm shift to reach AGI - '“Laws were meant to be broken.” Cool! Alan Kay received the award pioneering many of the ideas at the root of contemporary object-oriented programming languages, leading the team that developed Smalltalk, and for fundamental contributions to personal computing. Will check out that book “Society of Mind” as well, thanks!'
on Johanna Stern pokes the pickle to test Apple's battery claims (video) - 'In re battery, my upgrade from ProMax 17 to 18 is about both the additional capacity of the 18 and the diminished capacity of my 17. Those combined is a significant increase. My 17 is currently at 92% of its maximum capacity. Perhaps in the mid to low 80’s in another year. My iPhone is a significant part of my daily life and it leads a hard life. I want the best and most reliable experience. And when I consider the price of a new iPhone on ‘cost per hour of use’ basis, it is incredibly cheap.'
