Recent Comments

  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - '“what’s the upside or risks between the limit order and trailing stop?“ “The core tradeoff is that a limit order guarantees your price but gives you zero protection if the stock pulls back early, while a trailing stop protects your profits on a reversal but can lock in a lower execution price if a temporary dip triggers it. Limit Order A limit order instructs your broker to sell your shares only if Apple reaches a specific price or higher (e.g., $334.50). • The Upside: You capture the exact premium price you want. If market makers drive a fast morning spike into your target zone, your order fills seamlessly at your chosen number. •The Risks: You can completely miss the move. If Apple hits $334.45 and reverses violently into an afternoon de-hedging flush, your $334.50 limit order will sit unfilled, forcing you to chase the stock down. Trailing Stop Order A trailing stop adjusts automatically with the stock price. You set a specific dollar or percentage distance below the highest market price achieved (e.g., a trailing stop set at $1.50 below the peak). • The Upside: It lets you maximize unpredicted momentum while setting an automated safety net. If Apple ignores the $335 wall and blasts to $337, your stop trails right behind it to roughly $335.50. If the stock then reverses, you lock in the gains. • The Risks: You are highly vulnerable to morning market noise. A rapid 4% gamma squeeze is naturally volatile. If Apple hits $333.50, experiences a brief 90-second dip of $1.60 to shake out weak hands, and then rockets to $336, your $1.50 trailing stop will trigger on the dip. You will be sold out early at a lower price and miss the subsequent run. Summary Matrix for Friday’s Session Strategy Best Case Scenario Worst Case Scenario Result Ideal For… Limit Order Stock hits your target exactly and falls away. Stock misses target by pennies, then crashes. Locking in a realistic target during the morning rush. Trailing Stop Stock moves past targets; you capture the peak. A brief morning dip triggers the sale before the real move. Hands-off protection against a sudden late-day flush. To help you decide which tool fits your goal, let me know: Do you want to see how to calculate a safe trailing stop distance based on Apple’s current morning volatility? Or are you leaning toward a specific target price where you would be completely satisfied walking away?”'
  • Daniel Epstein on Horace Dediu: Why Apple might be eyeing the eyewear market - '“My take: I pay three times more than Dediu’s $300 for my progressive lenses. If Apple can match my costs and throw a smart camera in the bargain, I’m interested.” Philip’s take nails it from my perspective. Both my wife and I often spend a large dollar number on our glasses with progressive lenses etc. If Apple can put in some useful tech and keep things lightweight they definitely have a shot at grabbing market share. I have no loyalty to the frame manufacturers except their styling.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Couldn’t leave well enough alone so I kept asking questions: “so on Thursday or Friday $335 will be a key resistance or reversal level?” “Yes, $335 is the definitive key resistance wall for Friday. However, it will act as a structural magnet before it becomes a reversal level, rather than a standard brick wall that the stock hits and immediately bounces off of. 1. How $335 Shifts from a Magnet to a Wall The $335 strike price is protected by massive open interest Yahoo Finance. Because of this, it dictates the entire anatomy of Friday’s trading sessions: • The Morning Magnet (9:30 AM – 11:30 AM EST): As Apple trades near $331.85 on Thursday, it sits just outside the $335 orbit Yahoo Finance. If the stock carries any upward momentum into Friday morning, market makers are forced to buy shares to hedge the heavy $335 call chain. This creates a mechanical pull, drawing the stock price straight toward $335. • The Afternoon Reversal Level (1:00 PM – 4:00 PM EST): Once the stock approaches or touches $335, the fuel line cuts out completely. Looking at the volume chain, open interest drops off dramatically at $337.50 and $340 Yahoo Finance. Because there are very few calls sold above $335, market makers have no structural reason to buy more shares to hedge. The upward momentum stalls out, making $335 the peak reversal point of the session. 2. The Mechanics of the Thursday vs. Friday Reversal The timing of when Apple hits this level completely changes how dangerous the reversal will be: • If it hits $335 on Thursday afternoon: This is a sign of extreme, unhedged retail FOMO. Because there is a full day of trading left until expiration, the reversal might be shallow. Day traders will take quick profits, but market makers will keep a partial hedge intact overnight just in case. • If it hits $335 on Friday morning: This is the peak danger zone for an aggressive late-day drop. As Friday afternoon progresses, the time value (theta) of those $335 contracts rapidly bleeds to zero. Traders will panic-sell their calls to save their profits. The moment those calls are sold back to the market, market makers will aggressively unwind their hedges, dumping millions of shares of Apple stock back onto the open market and causing a harsh afternoon flush. 3. Executing Your Sell Strategy Because $335 represents the absolute ceiling of the current market structure, waiting for the exact dollar amount is highly risky. [AAPL Approaches $333.50 – $334.50 Zone] │ ▼ [Optimal Window: Market Maker Hedging Maximized] │ ▼ [Action: Execute Sell Orders / Do Not Wait for $335.00] If you want to map out your final execution plan for Friday morning, let me know: What type of sell order you plan to use (e.g., a limit order or a trailing stop)? If you want to check the broader market conditions (like the Nasdaq index direction) to see if external factors will help push AAPL into that $335 zone.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - '“yes, look at the volume chains.” “The options chain for this Friday’s expiration (July 17, 2026) reveals massive concentration zones, mapping out exactly where market makers are trapped and where the stock will face significant friction. According to consolidated trading logs from Yahoo Finance and OptionCharts, total AAPL options volume has surged to 2.59 million contracts—nearly double its daily average—with call options dominating the activity. A breakdown of the critical contract data shows why the current price action is so volatile: Key Call Option Chains (July 17 Expiration) Strike Price — Active Volume — Open Interest (Contracts) — The Market Maker Impact $330.00 Call 181,840 ~62,000 The Breakout Trigger: Having blown past this strike, market makers are fully exposed. They are actively forced to buy shares to maintain a neutral hedge, which explains Thursday’s explosive jump to $332. $332.50 Call 37,986 ~24,000 The Immediate Battleground: This represents the exact line being tested right now. Gapping or holding above this level on Friday morning forces an instantaneous round of buying. $335.00 Call 13,842 ~48,000 The Psychological Wall: This acts as a heavy resistance point. Because open interest is high, market makers have pre-hedged a portion of this, but any fast move toward it triggers a localized acceleration. $340.00 Call 1,943 ~19,000 The Outer Limit: Volume falls off a cliff here. This confirms that the broader market treats $340 as a highly speculative ceiling with almost zero structural hedging behind it.“ Key Takeaways for Your Friday Game Plan • The Fuel Line Stops at $335: The high open interest at the $335 strike acts as a giant magnetic ceiling. If a morning melt-up hits, the rapid buying loop will target this level. However, because volume and interest dry up significantly at $337.50 and $340, there is no mechanical incentive for market makers to buy shares beyond $335. • The Downside “Trap Door” Price: If the stock slips back under $330.00, the massive volume cluster sitting there will rapidly flip from an asset to a liability. Market makers will immediately unwind their hedges, creating an aggressive downward cascade. If you are looking to exit your position, your highest probability window for catching a premium price will likely be a limit order targeting between $333.50 and $335.00 during the first 90 minutes of Friday trading.” And that’s where we are as of now. Comments? Anyone considering a small squirt off for near term or 2nd half living expenses?'
  • Joseph Bland on Evercore's June quarter preview is bullish on Apple - 'I don’t know about the close, PED, but the intraday high thus far is $332.28, And the volume at 10:00 was 25.5 M trades. In ny experience, high volume green Fridays typically swamp Max Pain. And with Max Pain per you at $290/share, “swamp” could be an understatement – more like inundate with a tidal wave….'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Continued post on options activity from yesterday, now with today’s prompts and Gemini responses. Would love for Apple 3.0 members with options experience and knowledge to jump in. As always, check to see if Gemini is making sense or getting it wrong or right: “Thursday trading already has AAPL up over $4.00 to almost $332.00. what does that suggest for Friday’s price swings? if institutions are not buying protective puts but instead are buying speculative calls, does that suggest less downside risk on Friday?” “Thursday’s powerful continuation rally pushing Apple (AAPL) past $331.85 forces a dramatic shift in your game plan for Friday’s Options Expiration (OpEx). Valid result indices for FinancePriceChart: 1.2.21. What Thursday’s Surge Means for Friday’s Price Swings Thursday’s jump over $331 dramatically changes the mechanics of Friday’s session. The upside target of $335 to $340 is no longer a highly improbable, maximum statistical deviation—it is now a distinct possibility. The Gamma Fuse is Already Lit: Because the stock is physically penetrating the core option strikes ($330) a day early, market makers are already actively trapped in their hedging cycles. They can no longer wait until Friday to buy underlying shares; they had to start buying Thursday afternoon to stay neutral. Violent Morning Volatility: This early breakout guarantees highly aggressive price swings during the Friday morning session. If the stock gaps up or holds above $332 at the opening bell, the mechanical buying loop will trigger immediately, dragging the stock toward $335. The New Peak Danger Zone: While the upside window has blown open, the peak price of the day is highly likely to hit during the first 90 minutes of trading (9:30 AM to 11:00 AM EST). 2. Speculative Calls vs. Protective Puts: Does This Mean Less Downside Risk? Counterintuitively, the lack of protective puts and the massive presence of speculative calls actually increases the potential for a catastrophic downside flush on Friday afternoon. While it sounds like a signal of pure strength, the mechanics of market maker positioning tell a very dangerous story for late-day trading: • Artificial Buying Support: Market makers do not buy Apple stock because they like the company long-term; they buy it exclusively to hedge the speculative calls they sold to institutions. This creates massive, “artificial” buying pressure that props the stock up. • The Fragile Foundation: Because institutions did not buy protective puts, market makers do not have a secondary baseline of put hedges to stabilize the stock if a sell-off starts. • The “Trap Door” Effect: If Apple’s upward momentum stalls out on Friday midday and the stock drops even slightly below a key strike (like $330), market makers instantly find themselves “over-hedged.” To remove their risk, they will simultaneously dump millions of shares of underlying stock back onto the open market. Because the options chain is entirely top-heavy with speculative calls and completely hollow underneath, any late-day reversal will drop much faster and harder than normal. If you want to maximize your sale price on Friday, consider tracking these parameters: Watch the opening 15-minute volume to see if buyers are sustaining the push over $332. Look for an entry to lock in your sell order if the stock moves to test the $335 boundary in the morning.” “Let me know if you want to look at the exact volume totals on the $330 and $335 call chains to see where the heaviest market maker walls sit.”'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Very sorry folks, here’s the continuation: 4. Critical Counter-Forces to Monitor While the technical setup favors a melt-up, beware of two major structural friction points on Friday afternoon: The Volatility Crush: After Friday morning’s initial hedging, implied volatility collapses. If the stock stalls, market makers will rapidly sell off their hedge shares, causing a sharp late-day reversal. The “Max Pain” Gravity: Historically, heavy option chains exert a magnetic pull back toward the Max Pain strike ($312.50–$320 range) in the final two hours of trading as options are intentionally burned worthless.” If you want to map out the exact risk parameters for this Friday, let me know: Your specific target upside price or the strikes you are tracking. Whether you want to view a breakdown of Apple’s implied volatility skew to see if institutions are buying protective puts.” “If I wanted to sell some AAPL stock, could the upside price clear $335 to $340 on Friday from July 15th close? Would this happen before the last two hours of trading? Is it risky to wait till the last half hour before close? Show me whether institutions are buying protective puts.” Response: “Can the Upside Price Clear $335 to $340 on Friday?” It is highly improbable that Apple (AAPL) stock clears the $335 to $340 range on Friday from the July 15th close of $327.50. While a gamma squeeze can fuel rapid spikes, clearing $335 to $340 requires an additional 2.3% to 3.8% rally in a single session. The options market is currently pricing in a standard daily expected move of roughly 2.25%. Reaching the upper end of your target would require an extreme, near-maximum statistical deviation. Unless unexpected, massive macroeconomic or company-specific news drops, the stock will likely face massive overhead resistance as it approaches the heavy open interest walls near $330. Will It Happen Before the Last Two Hours of Trading? If a gamma-induced melt-up does occur, yes, it will almost certainly happen before the last two hours of trading. Morning Peak Mechanics: Gamma squeezes rely on a feedback loop of frantic buying. This structural buying accelerates most violently during the morning session and early afternoon. The Afternoon De-Hedging: During monthly Options Expiration (OpEx) Fridays, institutional market makers begin aggressively “de-hedging” their risk profiles between 11:00 AM and 2:00 PM EST. If the upward momentum slows even slightly, market makers will rapidly dump the millions of underlying shares they bought to hedge those calls. This causes the upward pressure to evaporate long before the closing bell. Is It Risky to Wait Until the Last Half Hour Before Close? Yes, holding out until the last 30 minutes before the close is exceptionally risky if your goal is to lock in a premium upside price. The Volatility Crush: On Friday afternoon, options time value (theta) rapidly decays to zero. Traders holding winning calls begin locking in profits. As they sell their calls back to the market, market makers are freed from their obligations and sell off their stock hedges, often sparking a sharp, late-day price reversal. Max Pain Gravity: Historically, heavy option chains exert a magnetic, structural pull back toward the “Max Pain” strike price—which sits significantly lower than the current spot price. In the final hour of trading, algorithmic liquidity often dries up, leaving the stock vulnerable to a quick drop as open positions are systematically burned worthless. Are Institutions Buying Protective Puts? No, institutional data shows that big money is currently chasing upside rather than buying protective puts. Valid result indices for FinancePriceChart: 1.3.2 ((Not sure what the above sentence means)) Several key metrics reveal an aggressively bullish institutional posture: • Bullish Skew: In a normal market, put options are more expensive than call options due to institutional demand for downside portfolio insurance. Right now, Apple exhibits a rare upside tilt where Call IV (28.9%) is priced significantly higher than Put IV (26.8%). Institutions are paying a premium to buy upside calls rather than buying protective puts. • Low Volume Put-Call Ratio: The near-term volume put-call ratio is sitting at an incredibly low 0.44. For every 44 put contracts traded, 100 call contracts are being bought. This indicates that protective hedging is minimal, and speculative upside positioning is dominant.” If you want to fine-tune your exit strategy, let me know:Your average cost basis for your AAPL shares. Whether you want to explore using a covered call strategy to capture extra premium if the stock stalls out below $335.” Continued on Thur. July 16, 2026 AAPL Premarket post. Fascinating stuff.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Horace Dediu: Why Apple might be eyeing the eyewear market - 'Apple has a history of taking a product that some people like, and making it a product that many now feel they want AND need it. IMHO, it is something that Apple immensely enjoys doing. (And make a lot of money doing it. )'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - '“Max pain moves down $25 to $290…” Talk about a disconnect from reality…'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Premarket: Apple is green - 'As you said to all of us in your PED3.0 event this past Saturday in Palo Alto. I’ve shared your Jerry Q’s/Joe A’s with my friends that asked for highlights re AAPL for the future. Wonderful to have met you in person and your lovely wife as well!'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Exactly, Bob! Great meeting you last Saturday! 🙂'
  • Greg Lippert on Horace Dediu: Why Apple might be eyeing the eyewear market - 'The eyewear market is controlled by a few companies each with multiple brands – and sweet margins. This is a market ripe for disruption. Perfect fit for Apple.'
  • Miguel Ancira on Horace Dediu: Why Apple might be eyeing the eyewear market - 'I called it as soon as AVP came out. If they can do to prescription what they have done with the watch and avp, and can somehow ‘fix’ the broken system with prescription eyeglasses (I paid over $1,000 fo each pair of progressives I get every couple of years), it is going to be beyond huge. I am sure it is what TC mentioned as part of the planned growth in Health. I am very glad it is finally, maybe, coming true.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - '…and Apple returns to a 40 valuation! Wow! It’s one thing to say it could happen, and something else to see it happen!'
  • Robert Stack on Premarket: Apple is green - 'T-shirt money, right Romeo? 😉'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Horace Dediu: Why Apple might be eyeing the eyewear market - 'Not clear to me when, but I’d love to see it when this all comes into focus …'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Apple soars to $327.50, a new record close - 'Absolutely, Ron! Great meeting you last Saturday! 🙂'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Our high so far today was over 331. Yeesh! I had limit-sold earlier at 320 and have another at 333. (all in small qty “squirt” amts just so I can say I sold on a high).'
  • Steven Philips on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Pinch me! I must be dreaming. 🙂 I keep waiting for Westworld’s “Nothing can go wrong – go wrong – go wrong.”'
  • Jonny T on Apple soars to $327.50, a new record close - 'And, we now need the EU to cave in to pressure from EU customers to back down on their ridiculous demands on opening up the Appleverse to allcomers. The non-availability of Siri AI should be the tipping point for it to happen in my view.'
  • Ron Fredrick on Apple soars to $327.50, a new record close - 'And, for those who *don’t* trade…happy investing! 🙂'
  • David Thall on Apple soars to $327.50, a new record close - 'Is anyone here really surprised? I mean, it was only a matter of time. The degree of the volatility can be astonishing, but Apple’s current stock price is where it was going to inevitably end up, based on the recent analyst’s consensus, right? If you believe Daniel Ives, which I happen to, next stop: $400. Good luck all. Happy trading.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Apple soars to $327.50, a new record close - '@David Drinkwater: Apple also had a class action lawsuit filed against them seeking bazillions tossed out of court by the Federal District Court Judge in Northern California. Also, as Kirk mentioned, the regulators in China giving their blessing to Apple Intelligence was a huge event. Now if Apple can get approval from the current administration to utilize memory chips manufactured by Chinese companies to use exclusively in China only iPhones, that will free up chips from TSMC for iPhones to be used everywhere else. That will be a huge opportunity and increase the margins for Apple and perhaps even hold off having to raise prices. That could be the makings of the Perfect Storm.'
  • Kirk DeBernardi on Apple soars to $327.50, a new record close - 'David D. — Always tough to point the finger at any one thing, but the recent green-light by China regulators of Apple Intelligence probably helps with the lift.'
  • Steven Philips on Apple soars to $327.50, a new record close - 'I suspect a lot of “little” things. News re: faster chip production, NY moratorium on Data centers (contagious?) general comments about successful Apple AI etc. Investors bailing from chip and AI companies moving $$ to Apple.'
  • Bill Donahue on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Given the predictions of OpenAI’s demise, based on its basically non-existent financials and massive and growing debt, those people had better hope the IPO happens very soon and they have very short vesting and trade prohibition periods on any options they receive!'
  • David Drinkwater on Apple soars to $327.50, a new record close - 'Any inklings as to why? It doesn’t seem like a huge news day …'
  • David Drinkwater on Apple soars to $327.50, a new record close - 'This is a great way to start a vacation after a strenuous “last day before vacation” (it’s always like this at work. Two weeks in England (including a few days in Cardiff), mostly in the sticks among the trees and rocks. Could be worse.'
  • Steven Philips on Apple soars to $327.50, a new record close - 'Well, it’s a start! 🙂'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I don’t know where Bart’s AI’s continuation statement is, but what it came up with feels right to me. The concept of a “gamma squeeze” that takes into account the Max Pain dynamic, could be a force that bumps Apple even higher. OTOH, (1) it may not happen, depending on the short term action of investors and traders and whether they choose to lock in temporary profit before trading ends Friday, (2) even if it happens, it would be a special circumstance, and thus a temporary boost (3), and (3) IMO it actually has been happening quite a lot of late already.'