Jonny T on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q3 2026 - 'Will increased wait times make Apple products more popular than ever?!'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - 'As I’ve said before, in my observations of Apple’s share price performance post-earnings, it takes about three weeks for the market to price in the outcome of the quarter and the forward commentary from management. There’s nothing in the numbers that suggests there are systemic or structural limitations on growth long-term and I believe management is adapting as quickly as possible to changes in its operating environment and its competitive environment. I remain bullish long-term.'
on Apple at $343.67: Flying above $5 trillion, again - 'Sorry, Daniel. Over the course of their buybacks, Apple has bought back, not a third, but 44.41% of its own stock, as of last quarter. FY Q1 ‘13 saw buybacks commence. For FY 2012, Apple reported 945,355 thousand shares (945.335 M shares). Since then there have been two splits – a 7-for-1 split in mid-2014 and a 4-for-1 split again in mid-2020. 945.335X7X4 = 26.4694 B Without buybacks, splits would have equalled 26.4694 B total shares Check: By FY Q2 “14, Apple shares had dropped to 879.528 M. The next quarter, they split 7:1. Thus, they held an estimated (879.528X7= 6,156.696,000 shares. From 10K FY 2014 6.122663 B (after 1st split) From 10-K FY 2020 17.528214 B – (after 2nd split) Today: Q3, FY ‘26 – 14.714676 B shares outstanding. As of today, since buybacks started, Apple has bought back: (26.4694-14.714676)/26.4694 = 44.41% of its own stock .'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - '” Guidance is ALWAYS conservative, Raj….” Apple’s guidance follows a discernible pattern. Although given as a range it comes down to: A/ Top of range. This is where Apple believes it will perform. B/ Bottom of range. This is a just in case protection against the unforeseen. Should Apple not achieve Top of Range, its results are still within the guided range, ergo not a “miss”. Apple does not include potential for exceeding numbers. If actual results do exceed Top of Range it is as much a surprise to Apple as it is to the Market. After all, when Guidance is given, 1/3 of the quarter is already booked. At that time the view for the last 2/3s of a quarter become crystal clear.'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - 'During July I made 13 small parcel sales of AAPL, each at a new ATH at the time of trade. For my 14th trade I bought the dip for the first time. Just a small amount at $311 to go into my long term holdings account. I got a feeling 2036 Darren will be very thankful and say “why didn’t you buy more?”.'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q3 2026 - 'Yeah, I was not expecting the tariff rebates. Without them, my earnings estimate would have been spot on. Glad to see Apple put the rebates to good use.'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - 'I can’t post images here, but laughing at a screenshot of my conversation with a friend yesterday — “AAPL $343! $320 tomorrow after hours?” I managed to get a screen shot of it at exactly $320.00 (on its way down), too. Did I trade it? Of course not! If I had, it never would have happened! 😀'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - 'Robert Said: “As Roger reported in a different topic, Apple deployed $25.8 billion for repurchases in the quarter, including $10 billion for use of ASRs. This is the first time ASRs have been deployed since FY2023.” But Roger only said: “Roger Schutte said: “Buybacks were switched back on…$25B in the quarter.” I listened intently to the call and Kevan did not mention use of an ASR for share repurchases, only that $25.8B was spent. I also could not find any mention of a ASR expenditure in the published consolidated financial report. Robert, do you have any link or advance copy of the Q3 2026 10Q that notes an ASR was used? I wouldn’t be surprised but I’m not sure that it was, given that Apple only spent $11M on share repurchases last quarter and the April share prices were particularly low, ripe to be bought. Of note, the diluted shares for the quarter used in EPS calculations was 14.714 billion shares. From the Q2 2026 10Q, it notes that as of April 17, 2026, outstanding shares were 14.687B shares. That suggests that despite buying $25.8B worth of shares over the quarter, there must have been the same number of shares plus 27M additional shares issued, probably in stock compensation. I’ve not seen outstanding shares actually be higher in the next quarter. However, the total was lower than the share number used for the Q2 EPS calculation, 14.725B.'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - 'Maybe… I’m inclined to think that the supply problems will continue into next year, both for Apple silicon and for memory components. But it’s better to have unfilled demand, than to have unwanted surpluses!'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q3 2026 - 'We are doing some of this on asymco.com. More data to come soon.'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q3 2026 - 'Hi PED, Is it possible to track the performance of the analysts based on their quarterly predictions?'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - 'I agree David! They still got an increased quantity of SoC’s from TSMC to be plus 22% on iPhone and 29% on Mac. I’ll have to relisten to the call for direct comments but they are NOT in supply/demand balance after 10 months. 2 nanometer chips for iPhone 19 Pro and Ultra + M6 are in mass production and can’t come soon enough to reduce demand for the SoC’s they’re short on. Definitely not doomed though ANALysts will tell us all about it tomorrow.'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - '@Fred “ 29% gain for the Mac speaks volumes. More so when Tim talked about Mac displacing Windows and Chrome in EDU; plus Morgan Stanley buying 20,000 iPhones for security.” The edu numbers are what I’ve been waiting to see – especially if it means displacing the “competition.” Good job Neo!'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - '@David John Ternus did answer one question that was directed to him.'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - '29% gain for the Mac speaks volumes. More so when Tim talked about Mac displacing Windows and Chrome in EDU; plus Morgan Stanley buying 20,000 iPhones for security. Tim reported Mac Studio clusters running frontier models. Apple customers fund the infrastructure, versus hyper scalers burning through every $B then can get – debt, investment, cash flow. This only goes forward, no switching back.'
on Apple's mixed fiscal Q3 2026 in five easy charts - 'I’m starting to wonder if “short sell the rumor, buy/cover on the news” is not a genuinely viable strategy. Perhaps there is an options angle to do that at lower total input risk. The experts among us surely know….'
