Alan Birnbaum on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Yup; the blowout results will soften the drop ( agree with the 2-3 week lag )'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Ahead of the bell Apple is off $0.68 at $257.60. In my observation it takes about three weeks from earnings for the market to fully price in the most recent quarterly report from Apple.'
on Apple blowout Q1 2026: What the talking heads are saying - 'Apple is fine, the stock will eventually wise-up. It’s always thus. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, right?'
on Apple blowout Q1 2026: What the talking heads are saying - 'Quarterly Buyback Highlights • Shares Repurchased: 93 million • Total Cost: $25.0 billion • Fiscal Quarter: Q1 2026 (covering October–December 2025) • Total Shareholder Return: $32 billion '
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - 'That’s me with TSMC Jonny… At least there’s beer to cry in 🙂'
on Apple blowout Q1 2026: What the talking heads are saying - 'And lastly, Parekh’s exact words on gross margins from the call: Ben Reitzes, Mellius: So, the next question is on gross margin. You know, I’m pretty shocked. I got to hand it to you, Tim, that you’re able to do 48 to 49. What’s really going on there? How are you doing that with this memory, the NAND prices? Is it due to mix that there’s less hardware and more services, and services margins are going up, how are you doing it? To keep it at 48 to 49? Kevan Parekh: Yeah, Ben, this is Kevan. How are you doing? Well, let me start maybe by just reflecting on the Q1 gross margin. I think we talked about the fact that we landed at 48.2%. So, just above the high end of the range that we provided, you know, on the last call, and I think if you look at that performance, we were up 100 basis points sequentially. We talked about the fact that we had favorable mix. As you know, when we have a good product cycle, a strong product cycle we’re seeing for iPhone, that does lend itself to a bit more favorable opportunity on the mix and leverage side. So, we’re having a strong iPhone cycle, as Tim outlined, and so that also translated itself. We talked about products sequentially went up by 450 basis points. So I think in general, I think we’re just seeing favorable mix dynamics as well. You know, services continues to contribute as well. That business is growing double digits. So that also is a contributor. And I think we looked at our guidance,we’re providing a similar range to where we reported in December, and there’s going to be a few puts and takes. You know, we do expect to see favorable mix into services. As you know, when we move from Q1 to Q2, that tends to be the case, and that’s partly offset by seasonal loss of leverage. So there’ll be puts and takes, but, again, we feel pretty good about the guide of 48 to 49%, which is similar to the range we reported in December. Basically… Apple feels good about managing margins, even growing them, actually over the next quarter or two. This is part of the long term trend. I think Apple will soon cross over to 50%… Tim Cook has presided over a margin bloom at Apple that is a marvel to behold. Margin maintenance is not their worry. They moved it 100 basis points in a quarter y’all.'
on Apple blowout Q1 2026: What the talking heads are saying - 'Also, this from Tim’s call… We’re especially proud of the work we’re doing to support American innovation. Last year, we committed to invest $600 billion over four years in vital industries like advanced manufacturing, silicon engineering, and artificial intelligence. As we’re building on our long-standing investments in America, we’re supporting nearly half a million jobs with thousands of suppliers across all 50 states. In the years since we made our initial commitment, we’re making great progress. Today we’re shipping servers to power Apple Intelligence from our new manufacturing facility in Houston. Through our Advanced Manufacturing Program, we’re working with Corning in Kentucky to make 100% of cover glass for iPhone and Apple Watch. We’re working with Micron, which broke ground on a new advanced chip packaging and test facility, and we continue to advance the development of an end-to-end silicon supply chain across the country, sourcing 20 billion U.S. chips in 2025. Makes the point that some of these guys are long term partners building common markets, not just short term supply/vendor agreements. Also, Company gross margin was at 48.2%, above the high end of our guidance range and up 100 basis points sequentially, driven by favorable mix and leverage. Products gross margin was 40.7%, up 450 basis points sequentially, driven by favorable mix and leverage. Services gross margin was 76.5%, up 120 basis points sequentially, driven by mix. The bolding is mine…. they are stating it plainly. Unlike many rivals they have leverage and use it. On this common ground – the use of leverage – , I suspect Trump and Tim are of a mind 🙂 – except I suspect Tim is more on the side of stewardship than domination'
on Apple blowout Q1 2026: What the talking heads are saying - 'This mornings headline from WSJ is: “Memory Shortage Haunts Apple’s Blowout iPhone Sales” Business Insider is leading with “A shortage in memory chips is hitting tech hard, and even Apple’s not immune” Reuters with “Apple warns memory costs are starting to bite as Samsung, SK Hynix prioritise AI chips” So it’s the memory boogey man coming for our margins. That and “AI worries” …. vague enough to sound skeptically intelligent. It never occurs to these pundits that Apple has more than one card to play to ensure it always has supply at a fair price. One, it has purchasing power at scale and money in the bank that makes any partner want them. Two, they can pay in more ways than money, including sharing knowledge and engineering, Three – they are capable of switching to entirely new methods and technologies that could obsolete you if the price is too high, see Qualcomm AND they have the courage to do it. Whatever the other guys are forced to pay, Apple will more than hold its own in their dealmaking and manage impact to their margins…. Lastly, about those margins… Apple has optionality across the stack that the others simply do not have. They have margin budget to burn compared to rivals. So like tariffs, you may never even see the effect in their financials much.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - 'Ha ha. I owned MU stock for four years while it was still gestating and sold it only to miss 700%. Crying in my beer… Agree with Greg:- “maybe Apple sees these price hikes as short lived, dropping like a rock when the data center construction boom comes to an end (my favorite scenario).”'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - '+1 : Ha! Seems like we’re already there! And “there” is neither Kansas nor the Walled Garden.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Approaching 3:30am in the east, Apple is off $0.83 overnight at $257.45. This is after reporting record-breaking revenue and eps results for the December quarter.'
on Apple blowout Q1 2026: What the talking heads are saying - 'I think the market “worries” about X holding back the price is all a red herring. It really doesn’t matter what the X is, it’s just the next anchor point in the swarms murmuration. Wall Street used to be a herd, but now it’s more a swarm effect. The stimulus is whatever is driving the cycle this week…. It can be AI, it can be memory, it can be China, Trump whatever…. As soon as it became clear that Apple would exceed guidance, the new worry became “memory”, like the “tariffs”, “AI”, “iPhone” waves of cycles past. I was more struck by the very strong guidance of continued growth well above 10% into the next quarter and mostly likely the quarters beyond. Apple’s predicting a higher growth rate off an already record quarter. And right now, that rate of growth is still climbing. I wonder how Wamsi is doing… I haven’t seen his comments yet, but he was one of the guys I could see was beginning to have the picture dawn on him mid last year.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - '“First star to the right. Then straight on ‘till morning.”'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - 'I feel MENTALLY younger! (My body has a different opinion! 🙁 ) But I suspect others would call it senility! 🙂'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q1 2026 - 'Excellent job Gary as nobody saw Apple getting anywhere near $140 Billion. Let alone blasting right past that number. Always a fun event to match up against the Wall Street crowd. The Apple All Star Prediction Event once again goes to Apple 3.0. Proud to be a subscriber. Appreciate PED keeping this site up and running with his great pictures and articles he posts. A huge thanks to everyone for all of their comments with their opinions and experiences over the decades with Apple. It certainly helps being part of this community as knowledge has no equal.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - '@David There are ads and there are ads. A static image at the side of the screen is not terrible. Something jumps and consumes the center of the screen till you dismiss it is unacceptable.'
on Apple blowout Q1 2026: What the talking heads are saying - 'Eddie’s derogatory comments and attitude were telling as he was so obviously disappointed that Apple did well. His additional caustic comments denigrating Apple’s recent AI acquisition then pontificating they only went with Google Gemini because Apple had no other options since they have no AI strategy just personifies his petulant demeanor. A total Jerk.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - ' Maybe Apple should buy Micron? Or develop its own memory silicon and contract with a foundry Tthere are tons that would die for an Apple contract (Intel for starters). That would be cheaper than buying a Micron. Seems to me that no one in the memory business owns the kind of industry controlling patents that Qualcomm does, and Apple got them to do something they never wanted to do. Or Apple could provide the financing to construct a new fab with an existing memory manufacturer. Who would turn down that business? Or maybe Apple sees these price hikes as short lived, dropping like a rock when the data center construction boom comes to an end (my favorite scenario). Until then Apple uses its buying power (read margins nobody else has) to offset memory price increases and gain share.'
on Apple blowout Q1 2026: What the talking heads are saying - 'Gene Munster attempted to explain why the aftermarket was so meh on AAPL. He has a point – sort of. But come on: Every bad market move has been blamed on Apple’s AI mistake a year or two ago, and I’m not buying it. There’s a malaise in the market right now, and I think it’s matching the malaise in the country. MSFT dropping to a sub-30 trailing valuation? When a ship that big starts taking on water, then the doubts become infectious. But Apple is not like Microsoft, or any other company on the planet. Also, as I again point out ad nauseam, dumping on AAPL just means Apple gets to take that massive increase in net cash flow and buy back even more cheap stock. How long will it be before the Gene Munsters of the world finally figure out why Apple just walks the walk and, except that one time, doesn’t talk the talk? Apple knows what’s coming, and they also know that long term investors will reap the benefit of short term traders’ continuing to underestimate Apple’s future. It has ever been thus.'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q1 2026 - 'Thanks Robert and PED, I moved my miss in last quarter’s iPhone estimate (where channel inventory ended way low) to this quarter and they still beat. Real congrats are to Cook and Co.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - 'The overhanging question after this blowout ER seems to be, why didn’t the stock price go up more after hours? Gene Munster on CNBC said he thought it should’ve gone up 12% based on the positive numbers. And said because it didn’t – that “there’s something else going on here.” That something else – is the current explosive increase in the price of solid state storage. Tim Cook was repeatedly asked about this at Apple’s Q&A ER conference call, and it was discussed relentlessly at the CNBC round table, then on Cramer‘s Mad Money. BOTTOMLINE The sudden shortage of storage is what Apple bears are using to control the narration now. I can personally attest that the cost of consumer memory has doubled in the last six months. MY EXPERIENCE For the past week, I’ve been trying to buy a new backup SSD to use as my new back-up system – for the new Mac Studio that I ordered last week. Fact: the exact same backup SSD drive that I bought seven months ago for my current old Mac Pro – which I’m about to replace – now costs literally TWICE as much. The identical bus powered external solid state SSD device shot up from around $550 to over $1100 today. No kidding. So as many here already know – the big bear issue with Apple has to do with how is it going to affect their margins going forward – because the cost of memory is so much more expensive now. It may not have affected this ER margins – but it may very well affect next quarter’s. That’s the grizzly narration holding the stock down now, after the best quarter Apple has ever had. I spent a lot of time researching what the choices are now with an IT friend. With his guidance, I just ordered today an advanced empty SSD enclosure made by OWC, and an advanced SSD chip sold separately. Supply is so limited, the online store was out of stock, so it will take 10 days to ship. By purchasing and assembling it myself, I not only saved a nice chunk of dough, but interestingly, it comes with a substantially more extended warranty. As everybody here knows, demand got this high and supply so low for advanced SSD storage because of the hyperventilated build-out of AI by every purveyor of mind control this side of Uranus. Or, to put it in the vernacular – it’s a supplier’s market now. My advice – if you’re in the market for high-end SSD storage, I suggest you buy it ASAP. Because the shortage is only going get worse. Maybe Apple should buy Micron?'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - 'What I find particularly gratifying about the charts is services: they aren’t cyclical like the Holiday and Lunar New Year shopping cycles — they just go up and up and up. “Up, up, and to the right!” And another footnote: April Dividend Updates. I think it was $28 bn on buybacks and $4 bn on dividends. I’d like to see $24 bn on buybacks and $8 bn. Of course, $25 bn on buybacks and $10 bn would be even better.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - '“Hard to anticipate *balance* between supply and demand when you can’t meet demand.” A subtle distinction, but a very nice problem to have. I wonder what Lunar New Year will bring!'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - 'Nobody even asked about FX on the call! Go figure. Fortunately, no questions about tariffs or politics that I recall. There were like 6 questions about memory costs and what are you going to do, which all garnered pretty political non-answers. There were also several questions about what Apple sees 6 months out, which all got the same, “we don’t make predictions or guidance more than three months out”. These affiliated analysts make themselves look really dumb.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - 'If apple guides 13 to 16% you know they are going for 16% and confident that it is achievable. 16% takes Q2 to over $54bn. Chinese New Year falls later in the calendar this year, so the Q2 shopping days before CNY is greater than normal. So despite the great China growth some CNY purchases may have been deferred from Q1 to Q2. if they are constrained now on iPhone and AirPods Pro then safe to assume decent revenue growth for Q3 & Q4 too. Plus new M5 MacBooks should be another leg up. Here’s to the Longs.'


