David Emery on How Apple wins AI's endgame - 'Well, it’s interesting to think about the trajectory of computing in my lifetime, from batch mainframes, to time sharing, to minicomputers (DEC, et.al.) to personal computers to phones…. But those mainframe applications keep on running in the background, moving from corporate data centers to cloud computing centers. Hyperscale Ai will likely continue as part of back office/”big compute”, even as most AI computation is done in one’s pockets.'
on How Apple wins AI's endgame - 'Thanks for posting Ped. It’s worth reading the full piece. “If Apple has its way, hyperscaling as the default architecture of AI is dead. Not dead like it disappears — dead like the mainframe: still humming in the basement for training runs and big enterprise, while the actual life of computing happens somewhere else”'
on How Apple wins AI's endgame - 'I don’t think for one second that Nokia or BlackBerry RIM would agree with those views! And yes, Microsoft survives by serving corporates, but its valuation for consumer personal products must be near zero by now. Nvidia is a dead man walking, and quite possibly OpenAI is as well. Dead as in a shadow of their former selves.'
on How Apple wins AI's endgame - 'I count customers. Nvidia has 5 customers. They all are feverishly investing in how not to remain customers. Apple has 1.5 billion customers. They are all looking forward to the next way to remain customers. As an exercise to the reader I invite you to count SpaceX customers.'
on Mark Gurman: OpenAI's first device will be shiny AI donut - 'Highly anticipated by… no one? Perhaps I’ll eat my words, since it’s rumored to be a donut.'
on How Apple wins AI's endgame - '” Look what “dead man” Nvidia did this week…” A light bulb shines brightest just before it burns out. Of course Nvidia is going to survive. But its future is in replacement /upgraded GPUs, not in more data centers. Apple’s products all grew until they hit saturation, then it took a new capability to resume growth. Nvidia’s problem is that others will get into the GPU business, and older GPUs will be repurposed for lighter work, and then there’s the big one…Apple’s SMB AI servers, Mac Mini’s, Mac Studios and custom Broadcom ASIC powered networks. Nvidia’s market is going to naturally shrink as specialized on device data models powered by Apple silicon gain traction and larger users of AI learn how to segment its usage into data protected groups (powered by Apple). Then there will be the proliferation of specialized AI startups breaking away from the monoliths, each carving out a niche for itself, diluting the early dominance of the general purpose models.'
on How Apple wins AI's endgame - 'Agree that Apple wins. But win/lose seems simplistic. Most on this forum have watched client/server ebb and flow for decades, both still growing and both re-inventing themselves throughout. And that re-invention means winners and losers on both sides. Apple has already won every client device category except eye-wear – way too early. They won the App market. Claude validates Apple silicon for 3rd party AI. Early reviews of Apple AI on Apple Silicon sound really bullish As for the ‘server’ AI, Nvidia has CUDA and other moat-creating assets. The rest of cloud-AI, both frontier and inference, look like the early days of the PC clone biz and the dot com boom.'
on How Apple wins AI's endgame - 'There’s a persistent problem with the dead man thesis: it presumes that such huge battles will result in one company being killed. But what often happens is that companies competing head to head in what looks like an existential contest slide off to compete in other arenas. Microsoft’s OS chokehold was supposed to kill Apple. Then Apple’s chokehold on phones and its ecosystem was supposed to kill off Microsoft. Instead, both companies are booming and neither is an existential threat to the other. They remain vicious competitors, to be sure, but a lot of it is in arenas where they aren’t head to head. Now we have the argument that Apple will kill Nvidia. I predict we’ll see the same dynamic: any existential competition, if that is what is happening today, will cease to be the central focus as the two shift to focus the majority of their energies on new markets where they likely won’t be competing head to head. But you gotta admit: asserting that a multi-trillion dollar company is deadman walking is eye catching.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'On this Friday afternoon the DJIA and the S&P 500 have reached new all time highs. Apple is currently off $0.24 at $312.18. Palantir is up nearly $15 at $170.91, boosted higher by a price target increase to $255 from Bank of America. Apple supplier Corning is ahead $8.68 in afternoon trading at $165.86. Apple supplier Broadcom is up $4.14 at $424.70. It’s a good day at the end of a good week for investors.'
on Tiny Chinese chipmaker teaches giant Apple a lesson - 'Just a thought experiment: Global Wafers in Sherman, Texas, receives a lot of funding from Apple on its current path to producing 1.2 million wafers a month. Apple uses a lot of those wafers for its US suppliers (ie TSMC, TI). Doing a little checking, CXMT produces 200,000 wafers a month. Would CXMT produce some memory for Apple if Apple supplied the wafers at a reduced price? Currently, Apple uses those wafers for its own suppliers in the US. But I wonder if there might be a point where Apple could take a hit on wafer costs by sending them to CXMT at less than full price but make it up on cheaper memory chips to put in Apple products. CXMT gets its profit. Bet Cook and Ternus know. It is more complex than this, I am sure (ie the wafers are supposed to be for US companies first), but an interesting thought.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'AAPL is trying its little heart out. Up to almost 315, down to under 311 now up to almost 313. (Wow! /s)'
on Omdia: Apple still rules the shrinking tablet market; Lenova is growing fast - 'It would be interesting to know the installed base number. iPads last a long time.'
on Omdia: Apple still rules the shrinking tablet market; Lenova is growing fast - '“Lenovo was the only company to record shipment growth, with volumes increasing 27% year on year.” this is an example of picking out the stats that support the story you want to tell. I believe a more accurate stat as to what’s happening in the whole market place is market share. Lenovo’s market share actually decreased from 11.1% to 7.8%.'
on Mark Gurman: OpenAI's first device will be shiny AI donut - '“The device is designed to…tailor conversations and act more like a real person.” Oh, yes please. I want more of that, for sure. It’s fraud, isn’t it?'
on Mark Gurman: OpenAI's first device will be shiny AI donut - '“What can you do against the lunatic who is less intelligent than yourself, who ignores reason and evidence and then simply persists in his lunacy?” I fixed it for you to describe our current president.'
on Mark Gurman: OpenAI's first device will be shiny AI donut - 'Big Brother may not be watching you quite yet. But it’s definitely going to be listening…. and talking. Whether this ‘always on’ portal has a moral compass or is capable of always telling the truth remains to be seen. The difference between this and a TV set, you can turn the TV off. Or, as George Orwell put it: “What can you do against the lunatic who is more intelligent than yourself, who gives your arguments a fair hearing and then simply persists in his lunacy?”'
on Mark Gurman: OpenAI's first device will be shiny AI donut - 'As if tech companies couldn’t get enough consumer and personal data by scrubbing social media and internet behaviour. Now they’re planning on putting a data vacuum into your house, and recording and filming everything you do and say. Perfect. But I’m sure totally-trustworthy Sam Altman would never do anything to try to monetize that. Hard pass.'
