Steven Philips on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'It was the Russians! 🙂'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'I’d say it’s not only an issue of AI continues vs AI fails. As memory prices go up, the cost of chip-based hardware will go up along with the cost of use of AI. And if everyone has to pay more for the computing hardware because the hyperscalers are hoovering up all the chips, all those people paying more for computing hardware and literally everything else that runs on a chip will be willing to pay less for discretionary use of AI. The hyperscalers are seeming more and more like plagues of locusts that are eating themselves out of resources, thereby causing their own end.'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'What would you do with that fully populated Mac Studio? I’m presuming you have some AI stuff in mind…'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'Hi, Bart. Jerry has me on his Messages list, almost certainly because he asked and was invited to the West Coast Apple 3.0 get-together earlier this year. He is VERY MUCH still a long term Apple investor, and I’m sure his daughter is as well. With as many doubles in value as Apple has already produced, once you hit your first $1 M, sticking with the stock becomes pretty much a no-brainer. It’s a shame Tommo never seemed to grok in fullness that salient fact, but there are quite a few ex-Apple employees that have, over time, figured that out, much to their joy, and some of them joined Jerry Doyle at that very joyful get-together this year. But who knows; maybe it has finally sunk in with Tommo, and some day he’ll return to the fold. I hope so.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'CoreWeave and Tesla also had small spikes up at 10:00AM(PST). Curiously, DJT had a sharp spike down at 10:00AM(PST). Whatever happened involved multiple stocks. Bots gone wild?'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'Actually, Fred, although I upvoted you, I think Horace’s take (see my comment to him above) is even better: Apple is the greatest consumer company on Earth. By a lot!'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'Speaking of analysts, has anyone checked up on tommo_uk? Is he ok and still alive and kicking? In 1H of 2026 he was prolifically posting and publishing his blog, pontificating (maybe with ChatGTP help) his views on AI and the continued missteps and sleight of hand that Apple was foisting on the market and investors, in his view. But his last blog entry was end of June, then hard stop, radio silence, and nothing since. Is he physically ok, hopefully nothing health wise has befallen him, never wished any ill will towards him. Or maybe he took a sabbatical break and is enjoying his Apple and elsewhere funded wealth somewhere nice, warm, and cozy with a good solid internet connection and a fast but older MacBook to keep him company and connected? Can anyone shed light about what’s going on with him? I’d say the same for our lady members who seem to have gone silent or perhaps even left? I know our LSU correspondent Jerry Doyle is still lurking about and showed recently, hope his and his daughter are enjoying recent ATH’s as we are, while the #24 6-3 Tigers are trying to climb the SEC ladder (I’ll note my UCLA Bruins are astounding everyone including me at 9-0, #1 in the Big Ten, and #4 overall, plus USC has resurrected its playoff hopes at 7-2 and #15). I just miss many of the other members posting their thoughts occasionally.'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'Good point, Bart, and forewarned should be forearmed. So the next question is – if even more of the same is in store, then how will that impact Apple? IMO, folks are still going to need their computers, after all is said and done. Also, right now, the impact on Apple’s financials is essentially – Apple is thriving. Why? Because when you still have to buy something, you look for the best bargain. And guess what: Cheaply made junk isn’t actually a bargain. Every computer Apple can make is going to get sold, regardless, for the simple reason that they give the user the best bang per buck out there. I admit having sticker shock at the price of a fully loaded 512 GB Mac Studio: .25/mo.per month for 12 mo.months at 0% APR – $29,799.00 total of payments But what if the price goes up? Am I prepared to shell out even more? Actually, what I really want is a 1,024 GB Mac Studio – and they don’t even make it! So I guess the answer is – Yikes!! I literally can’t decide! I seriously doubt that a 1 MB Studiio would cost double that of a 512 GB Studio, and it seems like the next logical step for Apple…. But you see my point; at some point in time, you either stay stuck or you jump on the Apple Carousel. It has ever been thus, and so no surprise if it still is.'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'BTW, Horace, I’ve been meaning to complement you on your article “The Last Consumer Company” – https://asymco.com/2026/11/01/the-last-consumer-company/ I know it’s behind a paywall, but it’s a prime example of why Asymco One is worth every dollar! Here’s how it starts: “Apple captures 50% of consumer revenue of the top half of the S&P 500. Market offers no other exposure to consumers. When asked what they do, Apple says they create great products. Products that are designed to be useful and easy to use. The “user” is usually expected to also be the “buyer”. It is therefore almost tautological to say that Apple is a consumer company. Yes, there are businesses and other organizations buying Apple products, but they are not the target buyers. There is no “B2B” division. There are no “Enterprise” products. The “Pro” products are useful to professionals as well as consumers and they work for organizations but the Pro products are not designed to satisfy a purchasing manager. They are designed to be requested by if not purchased by the end user. When looking at other large companies today, I noted that most of them are focused on selling to institutions rather than consumers. I seem to remember that there were more consumer companies among the largest market caps than what I see present today.” … (It’s a wonderful perspective of Apple that literally needs to see the light of day in all its detail. So if you aren’t short on spending cash (and if we can afford it many others here can!), then acquiring an Asymco One membership is kind of a no-brainer, IMO.)'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'IMO, the tech market has now entered into an oscillating and schizophrenic thinking phase, fairly typical of boom-bust cycles. On one hand, we have those fund managers who have made big money in the AI boom, but they now see cracks forming. Their instinct is to either ride it out, or get out while the getting and profits are still highest. On the other hand are the managers who have already fled (to the tune of $5T value already shed) who have booked their profits, now have dry powder on the sidelines, and are looking for preset (AI driven or forecast?) algorithmic re-entry points if the market were to decline sharply. Hence the back and forth, Yo-Yo gyrations we have been getting – huge red day downdrafts, followed by short rapid green buying, both created by opposing views of whether AI is collapsing or still very much alive. This activity may dominate the market for the next 6-12-18 months as AI ambitions, financing, and geopolitical situations play out. For many, we will ride with safer, saner investments like AAPL, or like Gregg, move to Gold and other more stable havens for now. For others, they will sit long in cash (Berkshire) will the bottom appears and then strike. However, many fund managers will believe they have, maybe now more than ever, better knowledge, skill and AI intuition to help them navigate (and beat) this type of turbulent market, all to catch a falling knife without getting too bloody. Their hubris in believing they are smarter than the next Fund Manager is what will get them all in deeper trouble. Quotes on bulls, bears and pigs applies here, again, as history yet again repeats itself on human emotional responses in the stock market.'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'I’m much more inclined to #2. Costs for memory will hit megascalers REALLY hard, and at some point the pricing will stretch them beyond their ‘elasticity’…'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'Ternus’ “greatest company on earth” comment sounds even more compelling.'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'I just sent this to Phil: Fortune Memory chip CEO warns 2027 shortage will be so bad that ‘even money can’t buy goods’ Apple angle: this small Taiwanese chip maker discussed memory pricing patterns and market conditions and gave its forecast. DRAM prices have now increased up to 5x since a year ago, more supply may be coming in slowly in Q2 2027 but demand and long term contract payments by AI companies is outpacing Apple, smartphone and PC makers, meaning pricing power is still supporting an upward trend. They don’t believe sufficient supply or price leveling or any downward pressure will occur until mid-2028, others predict 2030. In fact, they have supply commitments they can’t fill so have to go to the spot market to get any additional DRAM at 30-50% higher prices. That is crazy, to overcommit and then make up their own supply gap in the spot market? My comment: the only way forward for any relief, aside from what new 2028 capacity from Micron is coming, would be two things: 1) Democratic Congress enacts investigations into the AI financing and/or Datacenter building contracts to determine if they are legal or shady, and maybe creates a temporary moratorium. The AI companies may actually be ok since it gives them an excuse to slow the hell down on their spending. 2) because of the NVDA scandal, inflationary concerns, another Prime rate increase, and potentially poor showings for Anthropic and OpenAI IPO’s, the financing for datacenters begins to crumble, slow, or dry up, and the AI Bubble begins to collapse in fits and starts, earlier than thought. That is the only way to reduce AI memory demand and force memory companies to cut prices on HBM, consider pivoting to still high demand DRAM, and reevaluate long term contracts if some AI companies might default on their HBM contracts if the bubble was to really deflate badly. It isn’t going to look pretty either way. https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/memory-chip-ceo-warns-2027-163159125.html'
on Daniel Ives is betting that Jensen Huang keeps his job - 'The Macalope makes some prescient observations about AI CEOs: https://www.macworld.com/article/3280487/ai-has-a-tough-week.html'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Apple Stock continues to have a fairly large daily range. Big numbers if you are a long time shareholder. Today’s high 353.82. Today’s Open Price 351.35 Today’s low 346.46 7.36 high to low. Currently 348.36 at 2:27 EST. Each dollar of movement is about 14.53 Billion of market cap change. (Outstanding shares 14.53 Billion x 1) So a range of 7 dollars is about 101.71 Billion dollars in market cap movement. Almost as much as 4th Quarter’s revenue. And this is just one day of trading. With the price of the stock at these levels it is only a few %. And not much company specific news to look at.'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'BTW, AAPL is now up 132% over 5 years and 1,185% over 10 years. Just sayin’…. (How many more doubles are left in the stock? 3? 5? 10??….)'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - '“…Apple has been lowering its count while its price has been hitting all-time highs.” That’s called correlation, PED. Some of us old-timers have been shouting this for years now….'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'Yep., Horace. Buybacks rule and others drool….'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Also, with the Dems back in power, Apple maybe has 3 years before they introduce more.taxes on buybacks, so now’s the time to try for a 50% total buyback of 2013-era shares. IMO. And if I’m right, that’s going to PERMANENTLY push Apple/AAPL valuation over a 40 P/EPS – well, until its growth starts to level off, whenever that might be….'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'Whoops. NVDA’s 52 week low is $164.27. Today’s low is $166.24.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Don’t know, John, but maybe it was Apple…. I really think the AAPL driver is too little AAPL versus a lot of demand for AAPL. Apple has finally slurped up all that Berkshire Hathaway stock, and those who now hold it just aren’t that interested in selling it – and Apple itself is still buying itself back…. We’ve reached ignition….'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'Huang knows what is about to befall NVDA. His conduct is nothing more than acting out the stress he is under.'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'It’s over. The AI run has bust. From here it’s all down hill. I’m so glad I didn’t succumb to the run up. “ https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/top-stocks/softbank-books-7-billion-quarterly-loss-on-us-data-centre-hit-financing-costs/ar-AA2h7RUK “ The smart money began distancing itself from AI a year ago. Today’s intraday low is $164.24. NVDA’s 52 week low is $167.27. Its 52 week high ($243.37) occurred a month ago. A new 52 week low will be printed tomorrow. How much will others write off this quarter, and during 2027? Huang’s indiscretion is just a side show to the collapse of the AI trade.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'What happened at 10:00AM(PST)? AAPL, Google, MSFT and NVIDIA all briefly spiked up. MSFT popped $15. AAPL popped about $3. Weird.'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'Genuine stupidity trumps artificial intelligence. Jensen is not stupid. Quoting “9 to 5”, he was “thinking with his Johnson.”'
on Apple price target roundup - 'Raj, I agree with your assessment of Mr. Woodring lately as it applies to Apple. It is indeed a strange period for analysts to judge Apple’s performance. They have to worry a lot about the impacts of margins, changes in product release cycles and AI on devices. Hard to figure out what to measure and then say Apple is winning or staying in place. I feel Eric has been growing more cautious about Apple so maybe he is just maturing and this his nature.'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'The gap is now about $1 trillion. I do have one objection. The market cap is not more difficult to increase because of the loss of shares. By definition, the market cap is the value of the company (actually EV is, but let’s ignore debt and FCF for a moment.) It should therefore be the same no matter how many shares are outstanding. They *must* grow in value to compensate for there being fewer. That’s why it’s a return of capital to shareholders. (Of course, if the market fails to react to the reduction, that’s on the market not on the shares.)'
on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'A friend sent a screenshot from LinkedIn: “Rich, add interesting content to your feed. Here are a few recommendations to get started”, and the person they suggested he follow was…. Jensen Huang. I responded, “Follow me to the Chinese honeypot.”'


