Joseph Bland on Checklist: What to expect from Apple today - 'Hmm. PED, if you publish this idea, it makes it public domain, and thus non-patentable, at the very least…. And you still have a few hours…. You’re welcome, Apple….'
on Who's betting that Apple shares will fall $80 today? - '$329,000,000 to cover 14,000 naked puts. Each put = 100 shares.'
on Who's betting that Apple shares will fall $80 today? - 'If selling, the amount of money you have to have in your account to cover is $3,290,000, all to make $140 (14,000x .001)? That’s stupid. If buying, it could be a good low-risk deal, if Apple has a $10 drop and you can do a quick cash out to make a small multiple. But overall its not a smart deal given the $$$ at risk.'
on Checklist: What to expect from Apple today - 'What are the odds of a ‘September One More Thing?”'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Apple finished Tuesday trading off $3.75 at $316.22. In overnight activity the shares are trading hands at $316.21, up $0.99 from the closing price. On to Wednesday and the big iPhone event!'
on Needham: 'The Odds are 4 to 1 Against AAPL' - 'Sorry, I messed up my last post. What I meant to write was this: Laura Martin has been an analyst for 15 years. According to Tip Ranks, she has an average return of 11.4%. Apple (AAPL) has returned 2,740.1% over the last 15 years – between July 30, 2011 and July 30, 2026. As a perennial Apple bear, why would anyone want to listen to what she has to say about Apple?'
on From the director of CODA: 'Being Heumann' (trailer) - 'Jim Wolfensohn, my boss, I worked as his PA for 15 years, hired her at the World Bank in 2002. Met with her many times. Incredible individual.'
on Needham: 'The Odds are 4 to 1 Against AAPL' - 'Tim Cook: “Don’t bet against us.” If the odds are 4:1 against, then that just means we win bigger on our convictions, right?'
on Needham: 'The Odds are 4 to 1 Against AAPL' - 'Laura Martin reminds me of the trophy given to the last person selected in each year’s NFL Draft: “Mr. Irrelevant.” From the short time frame that I’ve been invested in Apple stock compared to the rest of the knowledgeable subscribers on PED’s Apple 3.0, there has been a revolving door of these perpetual “Negative Nancy” Apple Haters: Pierre Ferragu; Rod Hall; Tony Sacconaghi; Tim Acuri, Tim Long (He never is); and Edison Lee just to name a few. Other than coming up with their insipid opinions, they have all been wrong and anyone foolish enough to follow their advice when it comes to Apple have missed out on huge upside gains.'
on Needham: 'The Odds are 4 to 1 Against AAPL' - 'This is the first time I’ve actually seen an analyst criticize a company with $130B in FCF, insisting that it’s a worse investment because it’s not engaged in the vast spending for uncertain returns that other companies have engaged in, to the extent that in most cases it has reduced their FCF to negative values.'
on Mark Gurman: Behind Phil Schiller's exit - 'Ya know, when a new CEO comes in, C-Suite management and teams below get rebuilt, shuffled, or evolve. CEO decision making changes, viewpoints and goals change, and business models and plans begin to move or turn in different directions. This is not to say there will be wholesale layoffs or changes but new and/or different paths will be explored or ventured. But Ternus will be molding the management team to his vision. If Schiller’s opinions didn’t mesh with Ternus, he knows well enough that he might not fit well in his position now. As good (or bad) as the App Store has been, it certainly can improve from a number of standpoints for Apple, Developers, and users. And many of those problems happened on Schiller’s watch so maybe it’s time for new leadership anyway.'
on Needham: 'The Odds are 4 to 1 Against AAPL' - '“incapable of seeing trends before they occur, instead basing her forward views on past performances.” Incapable, or chooses not to. Same wrong results. It’s true, she is the typical bean counter (“We argue that AAPL is a single product company”). And you can’t argue with her numbers. She’s just not looking at ALL the numbers and the trends they are pointing to for the future (greater installed base, greater income from services, greater income from AI related product sales (enterprise, education, private AI, etc). In other words, she does not appear to be looking at the future at all. My guess would be that she would panic if the percentage of total revenue from iPhones were to decrease, whereas I would see that as inevitable with silicon related sales and increases in services. Note that the percentage of total revenue coming from iPhones has decreased from 63% in 2016 to 50% in 2025.'
on Mark Gurman: Tim Cook, not John Ternus, made the foldable iPhone happen - 'Really strange narrative. Tim had to go to Asia to learn about folding phones? I heard rumors that Apple was testing folding iPhones long, long ago. Which they should have been doing. Of course they test all sorts of ideas.'
on Mark Gurman: Tim Cook, not John Ternus, made the foldable iPhone happen - 'If the new iPhone is part of the Apple Upgrade program, I would expect leasing one would cost about $100 a month. I figure lots of people could manage that (Me! Me! Me! Thanks Apple stock). And the major phone companies will subsidize the shit out of it. I suspect that few of the people purchasing the new foldable will pay full price upfront.'
on BofA sticks with its Buy rating for Apple and $380 target - 'Headline, $380… buy rating, $310…what’s $70 between friends?'
on BofA sticks with its Buy rating for Apple and $380 target - 'Bill: I too think Ternus will surprise us with a Jobsian “There’s one more thing…” tomorrow. Besides “surprise” being in the event name, it would be a hella way for him to end his first keynote as Apple’s new CEO. It would also accomplish several things simultaneously: 1) reinforce his image as a “product guy”; 2) reassure Apple employees and customers that the spirit of Steve Jobs is alive and well; and, 3) earn a huge amount of earned media. What will this new product be? I have no idea – perhaps the updated home center?'
on BofA sticks with its Buy rating for Apple and $380 target - 'I have no idea and do not care if people will “sell the news” in the days immediately ahead, or if they will buy the news. Because, barring a surprise introduction of an important new product (a real possibility given that “surprise” is in the event name), it’s all rank speculation about what the state of AAPL will be at year end. I am unaware of the existence of any correlation between whether an Apple event precipitates “selling on the news” and its stock price 3 months later. It is short term noise, as far as I am concerned, and roughly as clarifying to a longterm investor as day-drinking or watching CNBC.'
on BofA sticks with its Buy rating for Apple and $380 target - 'Meanwhile, MoffettNathanson Adjusts Price Target on Apple to $304 From $270, Keeps Neutral Rating.'
