Recent Comments

  • Mordechai Beizer on Apple orders fewer foldable iPhones than expected - 'I used my Vision Pro this week after a hiatus of many months to see if there was anything new. I was going to try out the court side NBA games but downloading the NBA app took so long that I gave up. Still disappointed that after two years I have very little compelling reason to use the device. The technology still blows me away but there’s too little content. What does this have to do with an Apple foldable? Here’s one Apple enthusiast who won’t be looking to buy the “next great thing” when and if it launches this fall.'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Apple was up today but on just 26M shares. Almost like pre-market volume.'
  • Bill Donahue on Apple's Neo opens the door to a $32 billion market - 'As a shareholder, what I like about Neo is that it’s an exceptionally cheap way to entice people into the ‘walled garden’. With 2.35 billion active devices in the world, and Services FY2025 revenue of ~$109 billion, the per device annual Services revenue is currently ~$46/device. The cheapest Neo is US$600, compared to the cheapest MacBook Air at $1100 the cheapest new iPhone at $700. I don’t know how the profit margins on those three categories of devices compare, but from the perspective of potential new Services earnings – and the major assumption that average annual Services revenue/device means anything at all – the barrier to increased high-margin, continuing Services revenue via the Neo is the lowest of any current Apple device, and far lower than any other Mac product. Which makes the Neo great value for buyers and users of it, compared to other laptops in its price class, and great strategic and financial value for shareholders.'
  • John Konopka on Horace Dediu: At sweet 16, iPad still hits sweet spot - '@Gregg Similar story here. I mostly live on my M4 iPad, next is the iPhone and then a MacStudio. Using an iPad with an external monitor and a keyboard is not bad, the limitations are mostly in software. Apple has made similar software for both the Mac and iPad (Pages, Keynote, Numbers) but with irritating limitations. I can create a document on the Mac and when I switch to the iPad to continue it I find it missing things. A big one is that it is really hard to load fonts onto the iPad. iPads do last a really long time. When I get a new one I hand off the old one to family members. I just saw one around here that is at least 10 years old. Still good enough for simple entertainment, email and messaging.'
  • Bill Donahue on Apple's Neo opens the door to a $32 billion market - 'The simple answer to a question of “Why not nuclear instead of renewables?” is actually as simple as it gets: cost. If one is truly agnostic about energy source, nothing can touch renewables on cost and time to generation (an average of 6 years after construction starts, for nuclear, with often more than 1 year of significant delays) . Not to mention incredible cost over-runs on nuclear. Levelized costs: (meaning the average lifetime cost of generation including construction costs; U.S. Energy Information Administration) – advanced nuclear: $110/MWh in 2023 and forecasted to remain the same up to 2050 – solar PV estimated: $55/MWh in 2023 and expected to decline to $25/MWh in 2050 – onshore wind: $40/MWh in 2023 and expected to decline to $35/MWh in 2050 Similar trends exist for the EU, China and India. Even when you add battery storage to PV, increasing the cost/MW by ~2/3rd, it’s still way cheaper and quicker to build than nuclear. Nuclear is absolutely an option, functionally. But it’s also exceptionally expensive. And typically demands extremely high amounts of fresh water. Which might be a bit of a problem in places like Nevada, that apparently are also allowing water-intensive data center development to proceed unchecked.'
  • Steven Philips on Horace Dediu: At sweet 16, iPad still hits sweet spot - 'Of people in general.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple's Neo opens the door to a $32 billion market - 'Not my point, Ben, Fred. I was taking exception to this statement: “”Apple’s launch of the MacBook Neo earlier this month marks the company’s first real push to lower-end PC consumers …” — Analyst Wamsi Mohan” That statement only stands if you don’t consider an iPad a PC. Which is balderdash.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple's Neo opens the door to a $32 billion market - 'IOW, it is an expensive alternative, and, as a breeder reactor, can be used to create uranium-233. Just what the world needs: More atomic bombs. As opposed to renewables, which are already making a difference. Or do you think it’s just a coincidence that the present US leadership is attacking renewables and simultaneous supporting promotion of hydrocarbon combustion? If so, there’s a bridge in Brooklyn that I think you might be interested in buying….'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple's Neo opens the door to a $32 billion market - 'Morning, Gregg “F*ck renewables.” Yours is, to put it much nicer than you did, a somewhat simplistic attitude. But for renewables, we would be far more dependent on burning fossil fuels than we presently are. Nuclear as used in the past wasn’t ready for prime time. Fukushima, Three Mile Island, and Chernobyl proved that. And as regards thorium-burning reactors, your favorite atomic power plant, they are both just barely ready for prime time consideration, and have some serious drawbacks. From Wikipedia; “Disadvantages Significant and expensive testing, analysis and licensing work would be required, requiring business and government support.[34] In a 2012 report on the use of thorium fuel with existing water-cooled reactors, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists suggested that it would “require too great an investment and provide no clear payoff”, and that “from the utilities’ point of view, the only legitimate driver capable of motivating pursuit of thorium is economics”.[44] The cost of fabrication and reprocessing is higher than using traditional solid fuel rods.[34][45] Thorium, when irradiated for use in reactors, makes uranium-232, which emits gamma rays. This irradiation process may be altered slightly by removing protactinium-233. The decay of the protactinium-233 would then create uranium-233 in lieu of uranium-232 for use in nuclear weapons—making thorium into a dual purpose fuel.[46][47] The melting point of thorium dioxide (3350 °C) is greater than that of uranium dioxide (2800 °C), resulting in a need for increased sintering temperature or addition of non-reactive sintering aids to produce thorium dioxide-based fuel.[48]: 2  Thorium is a fertile material, rather than a fissile one. This means that the fuel must be used in conjunction with a separate fissile material, such as uranium or plutonium, in order to start and maintain the chain reaction required to generate power.[49][50] Thorium has relatively low applicability in non-nuclear power generation settings, resulting in a very small demand for exploring thorium reserves.[48]”'
  • Gregg Thurman on Horace Dediu: At sweet 16, iPad still hits sweet spot - 'My iPad A16 is my primary computer device. Secondary is my iPhone. I haven’t turned on my iMac in a couple of years.'
  • Joseph Bland on Horace Dediu: At sweet 16, iPad still hits sweet spot - 'The point I’ve consistently made and that is consistently given short shrift is that the iPad is a portable PC, and therefore should be included in tallies of PCs. And no, Fred, it’s not a dumb terminal. It can run completely independently of the internet, no differently than any other portable PC. What does fall under your category is the Chrome. It’s why they were so much less expensive and have better battery life. It also unabashedly ripped off children’s personal info, for which it is hoped Alphabet will now pay a huge price. Which is less likely with the present morally bankrupt US leadership. And yet – Alphabet/GOOGL presently has the second highest market cap in the world. Which says a lot about the underlying moral fiber of investors in general….'
  • Greg Lippert on Horace Dediu: At sweet 16, iPad still hits sweet spot - 'Both have key places in my life. For design, video editing, and web dev, I am still wedded to Mac. But for my live performances, iPad runs the show. iPad also better for consumption and casual use. Both equally fine for browsing, email, writing. Long live Mac, long live, iPad'
  • Fred Stein on Horace Dediu: At sweet 16, iPad still hits sweet spot - 'The iPad is a ‘terminal’. The Mac is a ‘client’. Y’all recall the terminal/server, client/server, thin client, fat client chatter back in the day. Disclaimer: Categorizations are fraught. Individual or enterprise use cases break such simplistic models. Eg. Big screen PCs in hospital check-in used for data entry/retrieval.'
  • David Emery on Horace Dediu: At sweet 16, iPad still hits sweet spot - 'Given the ubiquity of iPads in doctor offices and other places where you’re given something to fill out forms, I’d say the iPad has been Apple’s most successful ‘business product’. Not sure if we can see how many iPads are sold for business/corporate/OEM use, versus those sold to consumers (and which category would ‘sales to schools’ go?)'
  • Fred Stein on Apple's Mac sales grew 9% in March quarter, in spite of war - '@ PED, Gregg – What Gemini said about Neo’s segment: “Entry-level models under $600 absorbed nearly half (44.3%) of all PC shipment volume as of 2025.” Neo punches above its weight. It will take share from Mid-level too. Net: Neo doubles Mac’s Addressable Market.'
  • Fred Stein on Apple's Neo opens the door to a $32 billion market - 'Agree Ben. The Neo competes more against the low tier of the PC market than the tablet market. Neo sales will come from younger, poorer, and emerging markets. Very few of us on this forum fit that cohort.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's Mac sales grew 9% in March quarter, in spite of war - '”Wait until the Neo takes off.” I can wait, I just don’t want to.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple orders fewer foldable iPhones than expected - '”Apple’s cautious approach follows its experience with the $3,499 Vision Pro headset, which faced weak sales amid price resistance. All you need to read to determine that Mr. Han is a hack and done no research on this subject.'
  • David Emery on Apple's Neo opens the door to a $32 billion market - 'TheVerge has an article (behind their paywall), Headline: “I tested three Windows laptops in the MacBook Neo’s price range – there’s no contest” Windows laptops in this price range tend to be ugly, cheap-feeling, and a little slow. … but I wanted to see what the competition in the PC space is like now. So I asked a bunch of laptop manufacturers to send me their best answers to the MacBook Neo. Unfortunately, that’s where the preview ends, but the headline gives away the results.'
  • David Emery on Apple orders fewer foldable iPhones than expected - 'What bovine effluent! But it’s a consistent pattern. ANALysts announce a product Apple has not. Then they announce production delays. Then they back away and say “will ship on schedule” Then they announce “ordering fewer than expected.” All these expectations are about ONE THING: Website clicks.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple orders fewer foldable iPhones than expected - 'Bwahaha, ahaha, bwahaha. The unsubstantiated rumors continue. Anything for clicks.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Counterpoint: Apple's iPhone ruled the Dec. 2025 quarter - 'I just upgraded my 1999 Chrysler Town & Country mini van to a 2013 Chrysler Town & Country mini van. This is the 5th Chrysler mini van I’ve owned since 1986. I could extol about their virtues, but needless to say I trust and like them. I think the dynamic of iPhone is similar. Even if a user buys Android/Wintel they would prefer iPhone or MacBook (if they could afford them). The MacBook Neo and iPhone 17e are both new and priced better than 3 year old used Apple top end products. Seven years ago I paid $1500 for my ‘99 I then put about $3,000 into it. Over the 7 years I owned it I put 35,000 miles on it. The 2013 has 76,000 miles on it (average is ~123,000 miles) and is a mechanical and cosmetic cream puff. In my opinion, the experience behind the wheel is comparable to any new automobile costing 10X more. I’m going to be 80 this year. The Chrysler is going to outlast me. I paid $8,000. The corollary between my used Chrysler mini vans and the Mac Neo or iPhone 17e, is that all of them, are new (or appear new), are imminently affordable, and most importantly trusted.'
  • Greg Lippert on Apple's Neo opens the door to a $32 billion market - 'The Neo is a gamechanger.'
  • Greg Lippert on Apple's Neo opens the door to a $32 billion market - 'You can do both. It’s not a zero-sum game. The only thing we shouldn’t do is stay on the fossil fuel highway. Want to know how to f**k Iran? Stop needing their oil. I’ve put my money where my mouth is; driving only EVs and installing solar so I am almost non-reliant on the grid. In fact, I sell back power every day.'
  • Greg Lippert on Apple's Neo opens the door to a $32 billion market - 'Coal baby coal! FYI I just puked a little in my mouth.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is red - 'TACO effect. There are two ways to respond to Trumps big mouth. #1. You can try to take advantage of the fact that Trump Always Chickens Out. So when the market tanks after one of his midnight rants – BUY, because always chickens out and the markets return to normal. This is the favored strategy of the Trump family. Knowing when he is going to rant about something they precipitously sell, then buy after the damage is done. #2. You ignore the rants, watch your portfolio drop fast and dramatically, only to recover over a relatively short period of time. I have adapted my investment strategy to minimize the effects of Trump’s seeming irrational, bi-polar outbursts. I am a devoted options trader. In the past I forecasted where I thought the puck would be, based on fundamentals, and bought out of the money Call Spreads. Today I buy deep in the money Call Spreads, foregoing the larger gains of successful out of the money contracts, for a series of much smaller gains. I have chosen contracts that are $20 – $25 in the money on the day I buy. These yield ROI’s of 20% – 30% in about 90 days. Also, relying on fundamentals, and my own expectations of Apple’s growth, I buy contracts that expire AFTER earnings reports and, importantly, guidance. So, if I expect AAPL to increase from today’s prints in the next ~3 months I buy contracts that are currently $20 – $25 in the money. This means that even if something happens to make my forecast about AAPL’s future value wrong, I still make my 20% – 30% ROI. It’s nice to read analyst’s justifications for their price targets, but nobody knows better than management how Apple will perform. The rest of the equation is guessing how the market will react. This is Investor Sentiment. Of course forecasting Investor Sentiment is akin to herding cats.'
  • Farshad Nayeri on Apple after 50 - 'The data Horace & I analyzed the lifespan of most large companies a few years back we found they tend to that bifurcate. The average tenure on Fortune 500 list was (is?) about 15 years. That’s 20% of a human lifespan. Of course to outlast this dictum, companies who survive usually have to go through some existential transformation both internally and externally.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's Neo opens the door to a $32 billion market - 'F*ck renewables. We have to get over our aversion to nuclear. Nuclear can produce far more energy than any renewable alternative, and do so 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year, come rain or shine, and meet clean air standards while doing so. As a side thought data centers should not be permitted without a power solution that does not burden the current grid or current consumer’s pocketbooks.'
  • Ben Gepp on Apple's Neo opens the door to a $32 billion market - 'I think it depends what you do on a larger-than-phone-screen-device as to who adopts a Neo or an iPad. I use an iPad in a very different way to a laptop or desktop. Admittedly I am still working so I use a laptop/desktop more to build something and the iPad more for consuming something. Both cross over to a degree in my case. MacOS seems more efficient for productivity and iOS seems more efficient for consumptive type activities. Personally I think the Neo will add significant market share to Apple.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple's Neo opens the door to a $32 billion market - 'Meanwhile, THIS is the real cost of AI; Excerpt From “States are struggling to meet their clean energy goals. Data centers are to blame” The Associated Press https://apple.news/AuBL4WRkEQxSH_3OmUzgCsg This material may be protected by copyright. “LAS VEGAS (AP) — Nevada’s largest utility says it will need three times the electricity required to power Las Vegas just to handle proposed data centers — and it probably can’t do that without fossil fuels. That means the utility could miss Nevada’s clean energy targets requiring 50% renewable power by 2030. “I can’t remember a time in the history of the industry where we’ve seen as much interest in adding load, which is primarily driven by data centers,” said Shawn Elicegui, senior vice president of regulatory and resource planning for NV Energy, which provides electricity to 90% of the state.”'