Raj Pandey on Premarket: Apple is green - '20 minutes before the open and in pre-market activity NVDA is down by $12. Surprisingly, more money (presuming it’s coming out of NVDA) is flowing into AI related companies MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, and META — all up by 2-3% — than into AAPL which is up by a mere 0.5%. The scene can fully change as soon as the opening bell rings.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Cross posting here as today’s NVDA stock response will be the big topic of the day: Bart Yee said: Yes, the situation with alleged Chinese spy Huang and NVDA CEO Huang having an intimate relationship and possible Chinese spying is a terrible PR and security risk issue. I sent Phil a number of story links from CNBC and others. Nvidia stock falls 5% as scrutiny turns to Jensen Huang’s relationship with alleged Chinese spy apple news/ Ai7fnABp6SO-a9Yyrbv8qSw Read Huang’s email to his staff and statement from Nvidia’s board of directors apple news/ AnJV6adFFQv6I1s9NTPYtBw Nvidia investigates CEO Jensen Huang’s relationship with alleged Chinese spy apple news/ AjetMv0usQuadKjbSbUSbkQ Very unfortunate but then again a classic Chinese and Soviet spying tactic, get to men (mostly) through sex, shame, influence, money, blackmail, etc., all the classic male vices, and wring out information, influence, money, or in this case, AI chips, intellectual property, and banned or sanctioned supplies. Very sad developments for Huang and NVDA.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Some info on max pain: https://optioncharts.io/docs/max-pain I find this FAQ interesting: When is Max Pain most reliable? Max Pain is most reliable during the week leading up to options expiration, as this is when price reversals predicted by the theory are most likely to occur. It is particularly effective for small-cap, less-liquid stocks, which are more susceptible to price movements influenced by market dynamics such as hedging activity or overreactions to prior trends. Max Pain is less effective for large-cap stocks, which tend to have more efficient pricing, and it doesn’t apply to index options like $SPY or $QQQ, which are harder to influence and less prone to dramatic swings. Max Pain? Max Pain is most relevant during the week leading up to options expiration, as this is when the predicted price movements and reversals are most likely to occur. While it can be useful to monitor Max Pain values earlier, the strongest effects and most actionable insights typically emerge in the final days before expiration. This is because market dynamics, such as hedging adjustments and increased trading activity, intensify as expiration approaches. For traders, focusing on Max Pain in the last week provides the best opportunity to align strategies with these predictable patterns. Why do prices tend to move toward Max Pain? Prices often gravitate toward Max Pain levels because market makers, who typically have significant capital and influence, hedge their positions by buying or selling the underlying stock. This hedging activity, especially as options near expiration, can impact stock prices and align them closer to the Max Pain level. Additionally, options sellers aim to minimize their potential losses, further contributing to price movements around this level. How often does the stock price actually hit Max Pain? The stock price doesn’t always hit the Max Pain level, but it often moves closer to it as options expiration approaches. Research and anecdotal evidence suggest that while the Max Pain level can influence price behavior, it is not a guaranteed outcome. Factors such as market sentiment, unexpected news, or broader market trends can cause prices to deviate from Max Pain. However, for smaller, less-liquid stocks, the price tends to align with Max Pain more frequently, as they’re more influenced by the hedging activities of market makers and options dynamics. Thus, while Max Pain is a useful tool for identifying potential price trends, it should be viewed as a probabilistic indicator rather than a certainty. What are the limitations of Max Pain theory? Max Pain theory has several limitations that traders should consider. First, it is not a guaranteed predictor of price movement, as external factors like market news, economic data, or broader market trends can override options-driven dynamics. Second, the theory is most effective for smaller, less-liquid stocks and tends to show weaker results for large-cap stocks or index options like $SPY or $QQQ, which are less prone to manipulation and have more efficient pricing. Additionally, Max Pain relies on accurate and up-to-date open interest data, which is only updated once daily. This means sudden changes in market conditions or new positions taken after the data update may not be reflected. Finally, the theory works best during the week leading up to options expiration and may not provide actionable insights outside this time frame. While useful, Max Pain should be used alongside other tools and strategies for a well-rounded trading approach.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Maximum-pain.com has been down for days. I’m in the market for a more dependable source.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (11/9-11/13/26) - 'Yes, the situation with alleged Chinese spy Huang and NVDA CEO Huang is a terrible PR and security risk issue. I sent Phil a number of story links from CNBC and others. Nvidia stock falls 5% as scrutiny turns to Jensen Huang’s relationship with alleged Chinese spy apple news/ Ai7fnABp6SO-a9Yyrbv8qSw Read Huang’s email to his staff and statement from Nvidia’s board of directors apple news/ AnJV6adFFQv6I1s9NTPYtBw Nvidia investigates CEO Jensen Huang’s relationship with alleged Chinese spy apple news/ AjetMv0usQuadKjbSbUSbkQ Very unfortunate but then again a classic Chinese and Soviet spying tactic, get to men (mostly) through sex, shame, influence, money, blackmail, etc., all the classic male vices, and wring out information, influence, money, or in this case, AI chips, intellectual property, and banned or sanctioned supplies. Very sad developments for Huang and NVDA.'
on Mark Gurman: Ternus wants a more agentic Siri - 'If these software engineers balked at working under Federighi’a management style, what did they think working under Jobs was like? From Gemini: “Steve Jobs spoke about focus and saying “no” during an audience Q&A session at Apple’s 1997 Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC): “People think focus means saying yes to the thing you’ve got to focus on. But that’s not what it means at all. It means saying no to the hundred other good ideas that there are. You have to pick carefully. I’m actually as proud of the things we haven’t done as the things I have done. Innovation is saying no to 1,000 things.” He also elaborated on the difficulty of the process: “Focusing is about saying ‘no.’ You’ve got to say ‘no, no, no’ and when you say ‘no,’ you piss off people.” Maybe Federighi follows that example, not just as a management figurehead, but tellingly can argue directly from knowledge and experience. That said, there still remains significant quality and specific functionality holes on Apple software which I would hope is getting addressed properly. AI across all software, especially with Apple’s focus on security and privacy, is a much harder endeavor.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (11/9-11/13/26) - 'Overnight index futures are mixed. Apple is ahead in overnight trading $2.09 at $344.46 at 3:30am in the east. The story grabbing headlines as we move toward Monday’s opening bell is a sensational one from NVIDIA that involves a CEO’s marital infidelity with a suspect Chinese spy, a falling stock price and a formal investigation by the company’s board of directors. Overnight NVDA’s shares are trading down $8.76 or 4.69% at $177.88. The all-time high of $243.37 was set on October 6th. At Friday’s closing price of $186.64, the shares are down 23.31% from the all-time high and the market cap has dropped to $4.507 trillion, ranking the company below Apple’s market cap of $4.975 trillion at Friday’s closing price of $342.37.'
on Saturday Apple video: Why Apple Didn't Make Steve Jobs Rich - 'Kinda sorta works. But also not. I’m reticent to share actual numbers, so I’ll use substitutes: In 2002, I bought “10” shares of AAPL. In February 2005, AAPL split 2:1. My shares were up 5X, so I made what I thought was a responsible choice and sold half of my shares, retaining “10” shares of AAPL. I took the proceeds and put them into JNJ (Johnson and Johnson). Not a good CAGR since then. Those “10” shares of AAPL would be worth $95,000 today. My JNJ shares are not worth that. Not by a long shot.'
on Apple in Dem's crosshairs? - 'I think they can do more than one thing at a time. Congress’ job is to investigate that’s why they have subpoena power. To say that Congress has anyone in their “crosshairs” is a bit strong. Shedding sunshine on some behavior through public hearings is not a bad thing. Calling various corporate officers in to testify is not the same as naming an independent prosecutor who might bring charges. Assuming that there are hearings and public testimony then this gives everyone a chance to make public statements. I look forward to this.'
on Mark Gurman: Ternus wants a more agentic Siri - 'I think some are assuming that skepticism will lead to rejection (of AI’s full potential). I am hoping that skepticism will help Apple achieve AI’s full potential without damaging the consumer.'
on Mark Gurman: Ternus wants a more agentic Siri - 'I think John T will eventually replace Craig F if it is true that he was known around the company as an AI skeptic and the comment that software lags HW. John T might want to put in his own team.'
on Singapore has become Apple's biggest tax shelter - 'Oh? She got a lot of money from Apple! But yeah, as far as any positive changes for Europeans? She accomplished nothing.'
on Counterpoint: Apple hoovered up half of Sept. quarter phone revenue - 'I think your last sentence is the kicker!'
on Mark Gurman: Ternus wants a more agentic Siri - '“That approach has at times frustrated members of the software engineering and design teams, some of whom believe they have limited influence over the direction of products.” I’m confused. Isn’t that management’s job? To critically filter thru all the ideas so that the cream rises to the top? Or is management supposed to say, “You know, your idea is not very good, but we don’t want you to be discouraged, so we will incorporate your idea even though it won’t be good for the company” ?'
on Mark Gurman: Ternus wants a more agentic Siri - 'Take the time to get it right, protecting users. Apple users will benefit from well executed agentic AI. A little prodding to keep it from taking as long as it did to get to “AI Siri” seems reasonable.'
on Mark Gurman: Ternus wants a more agentic Siri - 'I’m having trouble squaring this with Ternus’s recent decision to rein in AI bot use and expenses for Apple engineers. How big a corporate priority and financial reality can developing an agentic bot for Siri and the world’s Apple users be, if providing high levels of AI bot access and use just to its own engineers is too expensive? If Apple’s going to pursue true AI, then it should do what Apple does, recognize that LLMs are never going to be the way to get there and will continue to be the centers of financial black holes, and focus elsewhere. Leave the room that everyone else insists on playing in, while they’re all painting themselves into corners.'
on Counterpoint: Apple hoovered up half of Sept. quarter phone revenue - 'Apple went through their ownership cycle lengthening back in 2021-2024 with the iPhone 11 & 12 being so good, people didn’t invest in another quick upgrade, the pandemic induced a large buying cycle which satisfied a lot of folks, plus post pandemic buying within a depressive economy dampened sales. All of that meant Apple addressed how to handle a slumping sales market by expanding the market (and manufacturing) to India, had to bide time in China (see decline in China revenues (2022-mid 2025), and getting enough used and refurbished products by itself or third party resellers to become available to price sensitive markets. That last part primed the pump for Apple to now effectively compete in budget and midrange tiers WITHOUT any significant costs for manufacturing, production, logistics, sales, or additional warranty. Sad to say, for Android, many of the makers are now suffering a length of ownership expansion as prices are raised, price sensitive markets’ new sales contract, and current Android owners think twice about getting a new phone. Now some have to get a new phone as their midrange or budget phone is dying or is unsupported now. Because of price increases, value retaining used iPhones now become viable alternative choices to new but pricier Android models. The fact that a 3-4 year old iPhone 13 or 14 still works great, has iOS support for at least 3-4 more years, and had much better resale still makes them attractive for purchase. Apple then keeps growing the install base, new iPhone sales keep adding older used iPhones to the lower tier inventories, and Apple eventually sees ticks in iPhone revenues and Services revenues, and maybe someday down the line, Wearables, iPad and Mac sales if the user becomes invested in the ecosystem. Since Android has very poor and competing ecosystems, no one brand can improve their revenue situation beyond mostly just hardware sales, Huawei and Samsung mostly being the exceptions, and even then, revenue is uneven. Apple is smartly riding out this crazy market by capitalizing now at the high end with Duo, 18 Pro models and continuous iPhone 17 sales, and, somewhat covertly and insidiously penetrating the lower end with used and refurbished long lived and reliable older iPhones. Win-win-win for Apple.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (11/9-11/13/26) - 'Apple ended a tumultuous week of trading off $1.80 or 0.52% on Friday at $342.37. Over the past five trading days Apple was off 0.66%. Over the past month Apple is up 2.62% and year-to-date the shares are higher by 25.94%. The week began with Apple reporting results on Monday, the mid-term elections on Tuesday and the market’s response to the election results for the last three days of the week. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 0.94%, the S&P 500 was off 2.68% and the NASDAQ Composite was down 3.37%. Apple’s market cap at the close of trading on Friday was $4.975 trillion.'
on Mark Gurman: Ternus wants a more agentic Siri - 'My guess is Apple is working on agents. The question may well be how hard to work on it with limited resources/personnel. Apple has increased its research budgets but Ternus may want more of that to be focussed on agents, and on making them ready for full, rapid development, rather than mostly research. More focus on making agentic Siri ready for release than sticking in the lab.'
on Counterpoint: Apple hoovered up half of Sept. quarter phone revenue - 'The Apple Upgrade program may supercharge Apple’s revenues wrt the sale of used phones, IMHO. Apple will retain the hardware (instead of having 3rd parties do that). It will also regain those phones at 50% of their value, without having to pay a trade-in fee. After refurbishing, it can then resell those (instead of having 3rd parties do that). And retain all the profits. Not sure how all the economics plays out, but you can bet Apple knows. And it regains direct interactions with the new customer who buys the used iPhone.'
on Mark Gurman: Ternus wants a more agentic Siri - 'Good on you, Mr. Federighi! The absolute target as AI evolves is personal privacy protection. Apple’s system gives its users a choice. If Mr. Ternus isn’t 100% behind that, then putting him in charge was a mistake. More likely, though, this is just Mark Gurman making trouble.'
on Mark Gurman: Ternus wants a more agentic Siri - 'I thought they were doing this already. Stop pussyfooting, Craig!'
on Mark Gurman: Ternus wants a more agentic Siri - 'I use Grok Bot for agentic work that I wish Siri could handle. Yesterday I asked it to check iPhone Duo inventory at local Apple and T-Mobile stores every hour. It found exactly the model I wanted within a few hours. Siri cannot do that, but it should be able to!'
on Mark Gurman: Ternus wants a more agentic Siri - 'Agentic AI should be Apple’s sweet spot. There’s no reason for Apple to build another LLM product to compete with Anthropic, Open AI or Google. Siri should excel at agentic AI, however. “Hey Siri. I’m traveling to London from December 1st to the 5th. Give me some flight and hotel options. Now book flight option 1 and hotel option 2.”'
on Mark Gurman: Ternus wants a more agentic Siri - 'Have you met them? Apple will not stop. They don’t have the same goals as the others. They need an agent to get things done on device. And Apple is still the best device for AI – even the competitions.'


