Recent Comments

  • David Drinkwater on Apple at $333.74: Third all-time high in as many days - 'I’m both surprised and super excited that AAPL held its ground on a Friday after such significant gains. Go Apple, go AAPL!'
  • Steven Philips on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'But maybe, as Shel (Uncle Shelby) Silverstein once sang, “It does not pay to be too hip.” 🙂'
  • Neal Guttenberg on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'Hey John, I agree. It is always about the guidance. Less so about results these days. But as Apple is very pricey these days, results may matter more than before. I would add a couple of things that could go wrong. First, as Apple continues to succeed, it will invite more regulatory scrutiny. I think this is probably the biggest thing for Apple to continue to navigate. Still a possibility is that Apple could lose its way with the hardware and or software. Like the gnashing of teeth that they had with the Siri problem a couple of years ago. Maybe they don’t do a good job with the foldable or with future iterations of the Apple Vision Pro. I am not saying these things will happen. But they are all potential landmines that a company like Apple will have to try and avoid.'
  • John Konopka on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - '@Neal As I write this Apple just passed NVIDIA again. 4.909T to 4.905T. I think we’ll get a better feel for your concerns at the earnings call. Especially when we hear the guidance. Compared to other times Apple seems to be be riding a long wave of successes. Siri AI looks very good, the folding iPhone is the first new form for that, MacBook neo is great, M5/6/7/8 are fantastic. Maybe we’ll see some sort of glasses next year. Apple TV shows are garnering manny awards. On the other hand, I can’t think of many negatives. Some legal troubles with the EU. Possibly some black swans: China could invade Taiwan starting a war with the US, Japan, Korea and others. Trump could send on the military to confiscate ballots in the midterms and void the election. Another epidemic could arrive. Massive heat domes could ruin crops. Let’s plan for the worst, hope for the best. 🙂'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'Round? Flat? Maybe for Apple, as Huey sang, its hip to be square.'
  • Richard Gayle on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'In an economics class I took, the professor mentioned something interesting that impacts how I feel about Apple. He was talking about when to be in index funds and when to focus on individual stocks. When the market is chugging along, index funds work great, even in recessions and pullbacks. Because almost everything is doing great. But during massive pullbacks, such as depressions, index funds do not work as well as finding the right stock. Using the Depression as an example, it took the Dow 25 years to regain the highs it had before the crash (10 years if dividends were reinvested). But if you had been invested in IBM (necessary for Social Security numbers to be crunched) or Coca-Cola (people gotta drink), you would have seen huge returns in that time. I think Apple is the IBM of any coming tough times. And the smart money now recognizes this and is moving into it. It suggests to me that the smart money is increasingly worried about the economy and that Apple is the defensive stock to hold.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - '“Max pain moves up $10 to $300…” Volume at 9:30 AM PDT was about 30 M. That is high for that time of day. Are the options houses throwing in the towel at $330/share (two attempts to go under that have failed thus far), or are they saving their black powder for EOD? Stay tuned for yet another episode of The Perils of Apple…. BTW, the only tech stock on my list to show green today is Broadcom, which has clawed its way back to flat. That is the backdrop to Apple’s battle…'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'Thus, I agree (snd upvoted you) that the “irrational exuberance” of expectation for an immediate AI ROI is dissipating, and that Apple, being one of the few companies actually creating an ROI from AI, is benefitting. However, the “fear” of the AI balloon springing a leak, plus the likelihood that the AI boom has been keeping the whole market growing and the nervousness about the effect of that on the whole market going away, plus the general nervousness of the country as a whole, is IMO a long term phenomenon. When you measure that against a near-guarantee that Apple is going to be increasing ROI without regard to the general retrenchment, then it doesn’t seem to me to be a short-term (days or even weeks) move into AAPL that we’re seeing, but a longer term revaluation. Yes, compared to the “instant riches” of a NVDA, AAPL’s gains in EPS are more sedate, but they aren’t negative over looming inflation, but positive. That’s good enough for a lot of folks.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'Morning, Neal, I don’t think it’s “irrational exuberance” driving AAPL so much as it’s fear and a desire for safety. If so, then we won’t see any appreciable fall-back until the fear dissipates. The question then becomes – what is the nature of that fear, and when can it be expected to begin dissipating? IMO, the fear is deep-seated, and it will be measured in months, because it’s about the state of the Union.'
  • Neal Guttenberg on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'David, Upvoted. While I do like the share price where it is, I am wondering if the stock has gotten a bit head of itself and will pause here for a while for earnings catch up with the present valuation. I can’t help but feel the money from the irrational exuberance that is now coming out of AI/Memory stocks is now going into Apple with some of the same irrational exuberance and, therefore, bidding up the price. But as long as Apple continues to perform and the story stays good, then earnings will, eventually catch up with the present share price.'
  • David Thall on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'Apple is smarter than the average bear. It’s AI strategy was the appropriate thing from the beginning. The fact that it takes time to get Siri, integrated with AI was a PR stumble, but in the long run, it doesn’t matter at all because there is no deadline. They are the default consumer gateway. And most importantly because of the loyalty of its customers and ginormous installed base. As long as Apple‘s business model is intact, it is still the best long-term investment in high-tech in my opinion. Happy trading, everyone. Enjoy your profits, it ain’t over by a longshot.'
  • David Emery on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Not that I really care in the long run, but that is still satisfying…'
  • David Emery on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'My take: KeyBanc's downgrade to Underweight with a $250 target looks as wrong-headed on Friday — before shares set a couple of all-time high closes — as it did on Monday. And did any of those “experts” challenge KeyBanc’s clear miss?'
  • Darren DMW on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Thanks for the well wishes … Green looks too hard for aapl today … I am off to bed.'
  • Darren DMW on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Looks like no Friday morning boost. No worries – has been a great couple of weeks selling small parcels, each one at a new ATH. I only sell at ATH in AUD and only when my next sale is AUD$3.50 more than my last sale. With mini parcels I can keep that going for 5 to 10 years.'
  • Robert Stack on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Bart/Darren: I feel like I’m a spectator at a sporting event rooting on Darren as the home team. Thanks for the e-ticket; now it’s “GO DARREN GO!” 🙂'
  • Raj Pandey on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'As I write this, Apple has overtaken Nvidia in market cap to become No. 1 again.'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Best wishes to you there in Australia, Darren!'
  • Darren DMW on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Locked & loaded. AUD is down .4% … so can deal myself in from $335.75'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Barron's: What Apple learned from J.D. Rockefeller - 'Apple & its leadership & employees as its source of energy (i.e. its “oil, hydro, wind, solar, nuclear, et al”) harnessed to  ‘s success into how it’s distributed (e.g. its products & services), yeah – I can dig it, more ‘power’ to you, AAPL.'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Horace Dediu: Why Apple might be eyeing the eyewear market - 'That’s an interesting problem. Apple offers Vision Pro Zeiss lenses that support both progressive & bifocal prescriptions, which I got the progressive ones. Only my reading distance requires the script. My VP doesn’t have a shifting issue from reader to computer distance but there seems to be a slight lag going to long distance beyond 18+ft. It was nice meeting you & your lovely wife last Saturday, Lenny.'
  • David Emery on Barron's: What Apple learned from J.D. Rockefeller - 'That was an interesting article. To continue the discussion: Rockefeller combined refinery purchases with back-room deals with railroads to transport crude to his refineries (cheaper than the competition). He also invested heavily in pipelines. So he controlled both refineries and transportation. Not sure Apple should get into the ‘transportation’ side (ISPs). But it might be fun to consider Apple-branded satellite internet from a rocket company. 🙂'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - '5:15am, about 75 minutes before open, AAPL premarket is hovering around -0.51 at $332.75. We’ll see if the options are driving AAPL higher towards (and past) $335 or drop below $330? Hope Darren is ready for this morning and has his trades ready.'
  • Roger Schutte on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - 'At 6:55am premarket trading has Apple unchanged and Nvidia down 2.66% – if this holds then Apple regains market cap crown. Seems this Kimi model is throwing a wrench into the ai trade.'
  • Darren DMW on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - 'thanks Bart. I have been quite successful on recent Friday mornings selling in the first hour. There is often a spike, even if only for a few minutes where having a preset sale price might get hit. So gemini’s advice rings consistent to mine. Being in Australia I can also watch and act in pre-market trading which for me is 6pm to 11:30pm. Often PM can look totally different to how the day might play out. So I might get a great price at 5am EST whilst the rest of America is sad what happens after 9:30am.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Bill said: “To me what the market is now predicting is that Apple is on the cusp (or possibly in the very early stages) of a material and possibly permanent step-up in profitability, due to many things coming together all at once…” I would have agreed with this IF it hadn’t been for the RAMaggedon memory price spikes and competition for advanced chip production causing Chip & wafer price spikes for both A-series and M-series chips. While Apple has mitigated both for some amount of time, Apple cannot outlast both forever. This will have an impact on product margins which Apple may choose to offset by raising select product prices as we have selectively seen so far. If Apple decides to hold off raising any more prices till new product introductions, then they may maintain or increase sales YOY relatively, and gain market share (which I believe Apple doesn’t care about except that it naturally happens when you make good, solid products that are attractive and a great value, at least to those interested). In any case, even if increased prices dampens sales somewhat, Apple will likely fall less than others because of its resilient install base and upper end demographics, and because all other vendors in smartphones, PC’s/Macs, tablets, and Watches face the exact same component cost forces as Apple. In fact, IMO, with other makers cutting back on production of cheaper products (like cheap smartphones to the tune of 120M units), some RAM and NAND (although not necessarily Apple’s preferred high performance LPDDR5X RAM) then becomes a bit more available, display makers see demand falling so Apple may get slightly better pricing, and other components might be more favorable. Or it may not matter as Apple has locked up long term agreements (LTA’s) far in advance and they are good for the next 6-12-18 months. Having a known cost structure already allows Apple to give us accurate margin guidance, and if their sophisticated currency hedging works as planned for, also provides cushion for total revenues. One of the best supply chain and overall managements in any business or industry.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - 'Darren’s prompt to Gemini: “$338.62 and rising in overnight trading (which I can’t participate in). does this change gemini’s thinking for it’s plan of attack for Friday? I need at least $337 to complete a series of small sales. What does gemini think I should do?” “Yes, Apple breaking out to $338.62 in overnight trading completely flips the script for Friday’s trading session. The $335 “resistance wall” we discussed has been violently shattered before the opening bell. Because the current stock price sits comfortably above your target, your goal of locking in sales at $337 or higher is highly achievable. How Overnight Price Action Changes the Plan The Forced Cover is Accelerated: • By clearing $335 overnight, market makers who sold the $335 calls are now severely trapped deep “in-the-money.” They cannot wait until midday to hedge; they are forced to buy shares immediately at the 9:30 AM EST opening bell to prevent massive losses. The New Price Magnet ($340): • Because the stock cleared $335, the institutional gamma loop shifts its targets. The heavy volume blocks at $335 and $337.50 will now act as a mechanical floor, and the stock will naturally gravitate toward the $340.00 psychological ceiling during the morning rush. Your Tactical Plan of Attack for Friday Since your target is $337, you are in a dominant position. Do not chase the market or let greed turn a winning trade into a loss. Execute your sales using a staged scale-out strategy to capitalize on the morning momentum: Phase 1: The Opening Bell Limit Order (9:30 AM – 9:45 AM EST) • The Action: Place a Limit Order to sell your first small batch of shares at $337.50 to $338.00. The Reasoning: • Squeezes are most violent in the first 15 minutes of the day as overnight orders clear. If the stock opens near $338, a limit order ensures you instantly capture your baseline goal on the initial opening liquidity spike. Phase 2: The Momentum Ride (9:45 AM – 10:30 AM EST) • The Action: For your remaining batches, use a Trailing Stop of $1.50 once the stock clears $338.50. • The Reasoning: If the morning gamma squeeze successfully pushes Apple toward $339.50 or $340.00, your trailing stop will climb with it (protecting a sell price around $338.00+). If the stock suddenly breaks down from the $340 wall, you are automatically sold out above your $337 target. Phase 3: The Hard Cut-Off (Before 11:30 AM EST) • The Action: If any of your small sales remain unfilled by mid-morning, manually execute them via a Market Order if the stock is anywhere above $337. • The Reasoning: Do not hold shares into the afternoon. As detailed before, once the morning buying frenzy fades, option time decay kicks in. Traders will take profits, and market makers will aggressively dump their hedges, causing the stock to slide backwards. If you want to prepare your broker dashboard before the open, let me know: How many individual tranches (batches) you plan to split your sales into. If you want to check the pre-market futures indices (S&P 500 / Nasdaq) 30 minutes before the open to see if the macro market is supporting Apple’s upward push. AI can make mistakes, so double-check responses Hope this helps Darren, and Good Luck in the morning!! https://youtu.be/aB2yqeD0Nus?is=D-K-_bePMtNfeH4I'
  • Bart Yee on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - '“how does the Friday close of AAPL affect or portend for next week’s trading given the positive news about Apple iPhone, Mac and watch sales plus services revenues for FY2026 Q3?” “Friday’s closing price acts as the definitive roadmap for next week’s trading by confirming whether the market views Apple’s current valuation as a sustainable launchpad or an overextended trap. While early optimism regarding the FY2026 Q3 hardware sales rebound (iPhone, Mac, and Watch) and record-setting Services revenue has fueled Apple’s massive run to an all-time high of $333.26, the actual Q3 earnings report isn’t scheduled until Thursday, July 30, 2026. This means next week’s pre-earnings price discovery is entirely at the mercy of how this Friday’s option positions unwind. Scenario A: Friday Closes ABOVE $332.50 – $335.00 • What it portends for next week: A strong close near or above the $335 technical wall signals a highly bullish structure. It proves that despite the expiration of millions of call options, organic buyers stepped in to absorb the shares dumped by market makers during afternoon de-hedging. • Next Week’s Trend: Continued upward momentum. Because the market successfully consolidated these highs, momentum traders will likely drive the stock to flag sideways or slowly grind toward the next psychological resistance level ($340.00) early next week as a pre-earnings run-up takes hold. Scenario B: Friday Closes BELOW $330.00 • What it portends for next week: Closing below the $330 handle indicates a classic Friday afternoon “hangover effect.” If the late-day volume crush forces market makers to aggressively unwind their hedges, a drop below $330 confirms that the recent 2-day rally was primarily a mechanical anomaly (a gamma squeeze) rather than permanent institutional accumulation. • Next Week’s Trend: Short-term downside mean reversion. Expect Apple to experience a cool-off period Monday through Wednesday, likely drifting down to fill the gap toward its recent support levels ($320.00 – $323.50). The Fundamental Reality Facing Next Week’s Trading No matter where Friday closes, any price action next week will face friction from two fundamental crosscurrents: • Priced to Perfection: The fundamental metrics you mentioned—the projected 14% to 17% YoY revenue growth and robust gross margins (guided at 47.5% to 48.5%)—are already heavily baked into the stock price. Trading at over 34 times forward earnings, Apple’s multiple sits at its highest valuation since late 2020. • Margin Concerns Take Center Stage: As the option noise settles next week, Wall Street analysts will shift focus entirely to the fundamental headwinds building for the July 30 print. Specifically, institutional research will focus heavily on surging NAND and DRAM memory costs, which bears argue threaten to compress Apple’s stellar margins heading into the fall.”'
  • Darren DMW on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - '$338.62 and rising in overnight trading (which I can’t participate in). @bart does this change gemini’s thinking for it’s plan of attack for Friday? I need at least $337 to complete a series of small sales. What does gemini think I should do?'
  • Ben Gepp on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I remember the talk of ‘the law of large numbers’ when Apple approached $1T. Now you get unprofitable meme stocks entering the market with valuations of $2T, or trade at multiples of 300-400. So reliably stable and longterm Apple/AAPL with a road map that consistently heads in to right direction with a PE of 40 does not feel shocking at all. As long as EPS rises the share price will rise as that will surely buoy up sentiment.'