Recent Comments

  • Greg Lippert on The last meeting of Tim Cook's last day as Apple CEO - 'Please run for president. We need you!'
  • Bart Yee on The Financial Times profiles Apple new CEO - 'If you like to drive, and you like to be able to challenge yourself and your car, it’s very fun to be able to drive with precision, with speed, and with some exhilaration. For the vehicle to respond to your steering inputs, the accelerator, and braking while shifting while turning and accelerating again, all at speeds that demand your full concentration plus what you’ve learned in driving school and countless laps on a reasonably challenging circuit. Man, machine, physics, and control of energy. For some, it is like practicing a piano piece until you know it by heart, but then not only play it rote and off the page, but then to embellish it, play it with emotion and feeling and just your personal touch of interpretation. Physics, music, hearing, touch, soul. Or being able to hit that golf shot “just so” to achieve the effect you want – driver straight and true off the tee, middle iron up close to the green, a pitch with backspin to drop within 10 feet of the hole, and a tough putt to read but curves the ball right into the cup. Concentration, swing mechanics, smoothness, energy coil and release, that certain “thwap” of the club and the feel of a perfect hit. It isn’t necessarily racing but doing something well that counts. Best explained by one Steve McQueen, aka Michael Delaney from the classic movie Le Mans: “Lisa Belgetti: But what is so important about driving faster than anyone else? Michael Delaney: A lot of people go through life doing things badly. Racing’s important to men who do it well. When you’re racing, it’s… life. Anything that happens before or after…is just waiting.” https://youtu.be/xvgpbsr-mCE?is=y845LTI2apleIJQZ When I drive my 2000 Porsche Boxster S, even after 26 years, it still brings a smile to my face. It’s not for everyone, but it is important to some. youtu be/ve7C0CzoNx4?is=kA3UDjiho8XlaQrD'
  • Greg Lippert on Curious Analyst foresees three years of Apple earnings growth - 'Why isn’t he a PED subscriber? He coulda learned a lot from us through the comments.'
  • David Emery on The Financial Times profiles Apple new CEO - 'Sports cars are in the same category with me as luxury watches: I just don’t understand the appeal.'
  • Dan Scropos on The Financial Times profiles Apple new CEO - 'I’m now more certain than ever that Apple Vision Pro will find its way into Formula 1.'
  • Bart Yee on The Financial Times profiles Apple new CEO - 'PS: the original Rainbow and Rainbow Apple logos and Apple Computer fonts have never looked better. Wonder if Ternus would brink back this “livery” as an option for iPhones, iPads or Macs? I think it could sell very well for those who want to get away from boring blacks and silvers, or at least add the graphics to background colors. “In your face” graphics marketing to all Apple competitors, probably eliciting a ton of imitations but expanding the color palette and instantly recognizable look with some nostalgia. Go for it!!'
  • Bart Yee on The Financial Times profiles Apple new CEO - 'For those of you who remember Apple Computer sponsoring a 1980 Porsche 935K3 all season and raced at Le Mans, here is Porsche’s modern 963 in a similar livery and shown at Laguna Seca. This Porsche page features downloadable wallpapers and photos for your iPhone, iPad and Mac. Enjoy! https://www.porsche.com/stories/culture/porsche-963-in-apple-computer-livery-images/'
  • Bart Yee on The Financial Times profiles Apple new CEO - '“Weeks describes Ternus as a humble “good guy” but adds that his hobby of racing cars might give an insight into another side of his character. “There are not many non-passionate people that drive race cars . . . but at the same time, you have to be wicked calm and really dedicated to excellence if you’re good at it. And John is good at it.” “ To expand on this, I found this Autoblog article, and I wasn’t at all surprised at Ternus’ choice of race car or skills: https://apple.news/AVV3cSmF1QeinJwrPPjl2Qg Apple’s New CEO Doesn’t Just Drive Porsches, He Tracks Them “But outside Cupertino, Ternus has a rather more analog hobby. According to the Wall Street Journal, he takes his Porsche racing at Laguna Seca, where he reportedly manages laps below 1:40, respectable times for an amateur. It also suggests that the man responsible for Apple’s next generation of hardware appreciates precision in more than just aluminum and glass. Tim Cook Liked Porsches Too, But Ternus Takes It Further Ternus isn’t the first Apple CEO with a taste for German sports cars. Tim Cook was also associated with Porsche, including a first-generation Boxster he reportedly owned early in his Apple career. Ternus appears to be taking the enthusiasm considerably further. He’s not merely a Porsche owner or someone who occasionally enjoys a spirited drive. He’s an active amateur racer who actually takes his car to one of America’s most demanding circuits. The exact Porsche Ternus drives has not been publicly identified, which somehow makes the story even more intriguing. Ternus is also a genuine motorsport fan, possibly even an iRacing subscriber. Apple services chief Eddy Cue told Sports Business Journal that Ternus is a “huge, huge fan” of Formula 1 and suggested he could attend even more races than Cook. In fact, when Ternus could have been at the 2026 Miami Grand Prix, he was instead at Laguna Seca.” “This year, Porsche and Apple revived one of the more unusual chapters in their shared history with special Porsche 963 race cars wearing an Apple Computer-inspired livery at Laguna Seca. The design paid tribute to a Porsche 935 K3 that carried Apple colors at Le Mans in 1980, while celebrating Apple’s 50th anniversary and Porsche Motorsport’s 75th. So Apple’s new CEO isn’t just taking charge of a company that already has deep ties to automakers and an increasingly serious relationship with motorsport. He’s personally a Porsche racer who spends his weekends at the same racetrack where the two brands recently celebrated their shared history. And with Apple now holding the exclusive US Formula 1 broadcast rights, having a CEO who does trackdays himself might turn out to be rather useful. If this does go deeper with Porsche, let’s just hope it turns out better than Apple’s last unofficial “tryst” with Ferrari, because we all know how that worked out. ” (Ouch, a dig at Jony Ives and the Ferrari Luce) Here’s a short list of capable Porsche street based models that could lap under 1:40 at Laguna Seca / WeatherTech Raceway in a capable amateur’s hands, from newer to vintage: 911 GT3 / GT3 RS (991 and 992 generations) – 1:28 to 1:34 718 Cayman GT4 RS & GT4 – 1:32 to 1:38 911 GT2 RS (991) – 1:28 to 1:32 911 Turbo / Turbo S (991 and 992) – 1:33 -1:38 Taycan Turbo GT / Turbo S: This all electric 4 door sedan holds the Laguna Seca production EV track record at 1:27:87, amateur easily gets 1:34 to 1:37, all in air conditioned comfort! 911 Carrera S / GTS (992 and late 991.2) – 1:36 to 1:39 718 Cayman GTS 4.0 / Boxster Spyder – 1:37 to 1:39 Heavily modified vintage Porsches: Ultra-Lightweight 911 “Outlaw” (G-Body / 964) Weight stripper w/3.6L to 3.8L engine 930 Turbo Restomod “Monster” w/custom tuning = 450+ wheel hp A heavily resto-modded 914-6 GT spec to “RSR” spec with 3.6L to 3.8L engine, GT spec flares, wide race rubber gives 350+hp in a 2000 lb vehicle easily gets into sub-1:40 times. But very expensive, terrifyingly analog w/o ABS or traction control. A 718 Cayman 4.0 is turnkey, same price, faster, w/AC and comfort, can do these laps all day and take you to dinner afterwards. For Ternus, it was probably what was his fun car, and how to challenge it & himself. For the rest of us, it’s how fast do we want to go & how much cubic money we’d want to spend. BTW, don’t discount the possibility Ternus drives a vintage Porsche race car.'
  • Joseph Bland on The Financial Times profiles Apple new CEO - 'He’s got plenty of blue sky to work with. I’m predicting an AAPL double in valuation over the next 3 years, excluding inflation driving it even higher. Not counting Black Swans, of course….'
  • Joseph Bland on Curious Analyst foresees three years of Apple earnings growth - 'I agree with Chris and Mark. There’s a reason Apple is close to another 40+ valuation, and a reason it could continue to be, That said, he is calculating in buybacks to generate “forward EPS” of $14.27 over the next 3 years (which is IMO just a future calculation of EPS 3 years out. But if you assume Apple’s future valuation is the same as today’s valuation of 36.61, then that’s simple math: (14.7×36.61=) $522.42. Pretty darned close to Chris’ calculation. And that’s based on Mr. Njagi‘s guestimate 3 years out. IMO, barring a really horrible Black Swan Event or two, Apple could double by then.'
  • Mark Visnic on Curious Analyst foresees three years of Apple earnings growth - 'Also, on a reread, 29x likely is a more conservative multiple to underpromise.'
  • Mark Visnic on Nikkei Asia: Apple foldable iPhone hits snags - 'Very low probability, Cook would not go out with a logistics snafu.'
  • Mark Visnic on Curious Analyst foresees three years of Apple earnings growth - 'Haven’t looked at it but would expect it is a forward multiple.'
  • Chris De Armond on Curious Analyst foresees three years of Apple earnings growth - 'His price target needs explanation as it doesn’t fit with historical or current numbers. Apple PE is currently just over 37. PE is price/earnings X/14.27 = 37, X = $528. (Not adjusting for any estimated share buybacks.) So with all the positives he listed, why does his PE go down to 29? (414/14.27) PED: Perhaps you could ask The Curious Analyst as we’re curious.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Nikkei Asia: Apple foldable iPhone hits snags - 'Furthering the above. Apple doesn’t produce and hope to sell, it’s produces to contractual orders received months ago. The supply chain, all down the line, requires advance notice of what they will need to order to satisfy Apple’s needs. Unplanned changing of production schedules are highly disruptive and not what you would see from the world’s best supply chain management firm. Penalties are built into production orders to insure supply/demand imbalance. The better the ultimate buyer (Apple) manages its needs, the more confident suppliers are with those orders, and the better the pricing that Apple gets.'
  • Joseph Bland on Curious Analyst foresees three years of Apple earnings growth - 'There are other intangibles, such as the immense reward to Apple employees, who are given the opportunity to set aside AAPL at below market value. And probably others that I haven’t thought about or have just forgotten about over the years. But, of course, it can never be forgotten, as Robert Paul Leitao pointed out many, many years ago (on his Braeburn Group that I was privileged to be a part of): Everything depends on a continuing growth in net income. Without that, net income/share or EPS is not real.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Nikkei Asia: Apple foldable iPhone hits snags - 'It would appear that, ethics or not, there are a multitude of players reacting to a multitude of incentives to leak real (but incomplete data), or just make stuff up. Reporters of “leaks” are primarily incentivized to report the negative (if it bleeds it leads). Negative stories dominate just ahead of major events. IOW, it’s an eyeballs game, exploited by program traders that influence retail traders. Conclusion: the only effective investor defense is to buy and forget, and to stop relying on financial publications/media vs taking deep dives into corporate Earnings Reports and GUIDANCE. By the time management issues GUIDANCE results for one third of the guided period have already occurred, AND all issues having material impact to production have been identified and resolved. The only unresolved issues will come from black swans external to the company’s operations ie proclamations and actions from a mad man President. Can we limit reporting of the sensational by the media? I think that will be difficult, because from PED’s point of view “if it bleeds, it bleeds”. He is just as susceptible to readers’ attraction to blood as the media. Without a bit of controversy there is no reader engagement and without that engagement what’s the point. For Apple 3.0 readers can we engage more on Apple’s SEC filings, especially Apple’s 10Q and 10K, and less on rumors and unsubstantiated speculation?'
  • Joseph Bland on Curious Analyst foresees three years of Apple earnings growth - 'It’s interesting that Mr. Njagi mentions the unmentionable, Apple’s buybacks, as a positive force. Which yours truly has stubbornly held as hugely meaningful literally since they began – and received a LOT of flack for! I recently calculated that buybacks have reduced Apple’s float by 44+% since they began in 2013, with an average price of about $75/share. If you still have pre-2013 shares, that represents an ROI substantially better than the power of inflation, without even considering the gain in net profitability as measured in inflated dollars. But there’s more going on under the surface than that: 1. Apple has the unique ability to control it’s flow of an enormous firehose of free net cash flow. Consequently, if they need to redirect that firehose, it’s far more palatable than cutting back on dividends to access it. 2. For years, there was zero tax on buybacks, and even now, it’s a very small amount. Not so with dividends. 3. If you want to acquire something, you merely have to sell some stock and pay the capital gains tax – which you would also have to do anyway if you had been given dividends. 4. Buying back undervalued stock gives Apple more “bang per buyback buck”, and thus a better ROI. Hence, the very low average cost per bought back share. That in turn is a kind of jiu jitsu move that uses the manipulations of short term traders in long term Apple investor’s favor. 5. Clearly, the AAPL trader cadre sells much more frequently than the Apple investor cadre. As a consequence, one would expect that, over the nearly 20 years (!) of Apple’s buybacks, there would be a degradation in split-adjusted volume, as the largest quantity of shares NOT sold would be the shares of long term investors. And that is exactly the case, with the notable exception of the years when Berkshire Hathaway sold the lion’s share of it’s vast hoard of AAPL. Ergo, the number of investors versus traders is increasing, year by year, slowing volatility in the stock price. 5. Those folks still holding Apple are looking at generational wealth, and are thus less and less interested in selling, precisely because they are NOT a large investment fund that needs to continually rebalance there portfolio. In a way, that is democratizing AAPL by breaking it into smaller conglomerates of investment. If that is true, then we should be seeing a smaller than average amount of institutional ownership – which again is precisely the case. But that in turn means that what happened back during the Great Recession, when Apple was dumped by the institutional investors. is far less likely to ever happen again.'
  • Robert Stack on Nikkei Asia: Apple foldable iPhone hits snags - 'Hi Bart. Thanks for another one of your fabulous deep dives. I for one appreciate them, and they go well with a cup of coffee! 🙂'
  • Miguel Ancira on Curious Analyst foresees three years of Apple earnings growth - 'Headline : Analyst reads up on PED and agrees'
  • David Emery on Curious Analyst foresees three years of Apple earnings growth - 'OK. Consistent with the consensus narrative here for the last 5 years! So it’s good to see some ANALysts catch up to PED30.'
  • Neal Guttenberg on Nikkei Asia: Apple foldable iPhone hits snags - 'Bart, Thanks for all the posts. A very interesting deep dive into the supply chain reporting. Maybe what Nikkei is reporting is a new production line starting up for the foldable iPhone and they are making into a system wide kind of problem. I guess we will find out soon enough.'
  • Bart Yee on Nikkei Asia: Apple foldable iPhone hits snags - '“has Bloomberg or any other credible source countered Nikkei’s Apple fold production story?” Yes, Bloomberg has directly countered the narrative of critical delays. While Nikkei Asia reported ((on September 4, 2026)) that Apple’s upcoming foldable device (referred to by leakers as the iPhone Ultra or iPhone Fold) hit severe production bottlenecks—slowing to a crawl of just “a few hundred units a day” due to stringent verification gates—Mark Gurman of Bloomberg News has pushed back against those exact findings. (9to5mac com/2026/09/04/apple-making-just-a-few-hundred-iphone-ultras-per-day-per-report/) The primary differences between the two competing reports shape the market consensus: The Dueling Reports: Nikkei vs. Bloomberg • Metric / Detail -> Nikkei Asia’s Take —>> Bloomberg’s Counter-Report • Current Output -> Nikkei – Claims production is choked at only a few hundred units a day due to an added trial verification run. —>> Bloomberg – Reports that Apple does not have massive supply chain issues or unexpected systemic delays right now. ((Sept. 1, 2026)) • The Core Bottleneck -> Nikkei – Alleges Apple pushed back commercial manufacturing by weeks to fix hinge performance and screen flatness. —>> Bloomberg – Views current pre-launch metrics as part of the typical, strictly controlled optimization curve for a first-generation form factor. • Launch Timeline -> Nikkei – Warns that Apple will fall short of its initial 8 to 10 million unit target, likely resulting in extreme shortages. —>> Bloomberg – Confirms the foldable remains firmly on track to launch “at the same time or very close to it” as the iPhone 18 Pro lineup. The Expert Consensus Independent technology analysts note that both publications are likely looking at the exact same coin from different sides. Nikkei’s raw supply chain data points to an intentionally slow ramp-up phase because Apple’s engineering tolerances for folding displays are notoriously strict. Meanwhile, Bloomberg confirms that this slow crawl is calculated and built directly into Apple’s internal roadmap. Ultimately, the market expects Apple to debut the device at its upcoming “Surprise and shine” special event on Wednesday, September 9, though retail availability may be tightly restricted to a soft regional rollout or extended shipping backlogs.'
  • Bart Yee on Nikkei Asia: Apple foldable iPhone hits snags - '2. Internal Political Warfare & Career Protection Silicon Valley is fiercely political, and Apple’s massive corporate hierarchy is no exception. Inside Apple, leaking can be an aggressive tool for self-preservation or a weapon against rivals. • Scapegoating Bad Leadership: If a major project—like Apple’s automated vehicle project or early AI systems—is failing due to poor executive decisions, frustrated lower-level engineering directors may leak the project’s internal mess to Gurman. This exposes the failing division to the public, forcing upper management’s hand to shake up leadership or allocate better resources. • Claiming Credit via the Press: If an internal division develops a breakthrough technology but feels upper management is burying it or refusing to fund its rollout, leaking the existence of the project to a massive tech journalist forces Apple’s hand. Once the public learns about it and gets excited, executive leadership is under massive public pressure to fast-track and fund the team’s project. 3. The “Idealistic” Whistleblower & Morale Issues Many corporate tech workers view themselves as custodians of the product experience, not just cogs in a machine. • Ideological Disagreement: When Apple makes decisions that corporate staff strongly oppose—such as strict return-to-office mandates, dropping a beloved product line, or making a feature less user-friendly to prioritize ad revenue—frustrated employees vent. Leaking the internal policy memos or town-hall details to the press is a way to publicly shame the company into walking back anti-consumer or anti-employee policies. • The “Flattery” Trap: Gurman has spent over a decade cultivating deep relationships across the valley. Silicon Valley culture thrives on being “in the know.” Apple’s own leaked memos have noted that many internal leakers didn’t start out wanting to leak; they were slowly befriended on professional networks like LinkedIn or Signal. Over time, through a mix of flattery and casual conversation, an employee can easily let slip a confidential codename or timeline without fully registering that they are violating a federal non-disclosure boundary. Ultimately, while supply chain leaks are about moving physical boxes and factory margins, corporate leaks to Bloomberg are about power, positioning, and control over Apple’s public narrative.'
  • Bart Yee on Nikkei Asia: Apple foldable iPhone hits snags - 'The Pressure Cooker: Monopsony and Resentment In economics, Apple is a prime example of a monopsony—a market condition where there is essentially only one giant buyer for a specific type of high-volume good. This creates an intense, pressure-cooker environment for suppliers: • The Power Imbalance: Apple routinely dictates the exact profit margins its suppliers are allowed to make, forces them to buy specific multi-million dollar machinery, and can bankrupt a company overnight by shifting an order to a competitor. • Cultural Shockwaves: In many manufacturing hubs, a tier-one supplier is the lifeblood of a local economy, employing tens of thousands of families. When Apple squeezes a supplier’s margins or abruptly cancels a contract due to an engineering flaw, the financial panic ripples down from executive boardrooms to line managers. • The Motive of Sabotage: This “under the thumb” dynamic absolutely breeds institutional resentment. A mid-level manager who witnesses their company being squeezed, or who faces losing their job because Apple shifted 30% of a production run to a rival factory, has a strong emotional—and retributive—incentive to leak that information. To them, exposing Apple’s internal bottlenecks to a reporter isn’t just about a payout; it’s a way to punch back at a giant that holds total power over their livelihood. A Global, Systemic Vulnerability As you rightly pointed out, this isn’t an issue unique to Asian business culture. It is a universal human response to extreme corporate pressure and highly asymmetric financial incentives. Whenever a single company holds absolute dominance over an entire global industry, the individuals and smaller entities in its shadow will find ways to exploit the cracks. Whether it is a software engineer leaking source code in Silicon Valley, an automotive supplier whispering to journalists in Germany, or a component coordinator leaking order slashes in Taipei, the root causes remain identical: financial desperation, corporate retaliation, and the immense global market value of insider information. “what incentivizes Apple corporate level leaks to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman?” While supply chain leaks are often driven by cold financial payouts or supplier self-preservation, corporate-level leaks from within Apple Headquarters (Apple Park) to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman operate on an entirely different psychological and operational wavelength. Gurman doesn’t just trace hardware; he frequently breaks news about executive shake-ups, internal software delays, retail strategy, and product roadmaps years in advance. Because Apple strictly forbids unauthorized media contact, threatens immediate termination, and employs an internal security team of former federal agents to catch leakers, corporate sources who leak to him take massive risks. Their primary incentives split into a few distinct categories: 1. Controlled, Strategic “Authorized” Leaks (Corporate PR) Not all leaks are rogue; some are highly calculated, top-down communications quietly greenlit by Apple’s executive or PR leadership. • Testing the Waters: Apple uses Gurman’s highly visible Bloomberg column as an anonymous focus group. If Apple is internally debating a highly controversial move—such as raising the baseline price of the upcoming iPhone or pushing a major software feature delay—executives can quietly leak it. By doing so, they monitor the immediate market and consumer backlash. If the public reaction is disastrous, they pivot before the official stage event. • Managing Investor Expectations: If a massive, highly anticipated feature (like a major Siri AI overhaul) is facing delays, Apple cannot afford a sudden stock crash on launch day. Leaking the setback to Bloomberg months in advance allows the market to slowly digest and price in the delay. By the time Tim Cook takes the stage, the disappointment is already old news.'
  • Bart Yee on Nikkei Asia: Apple foldable iPhone hits snags - 'How Apple and Suppliers Fight Back Apple is far from passive about this issue. They employ a specialized, highly secretive internal security unit—often staffed by former U.S. federal law enforcement and intelligence agents—focused entirely on supply chain security. When a leak is traced, the consequences are swift and severe: • The “Death Penalty” for Suppliers: If a supplier corporate entity is found to have intentionally leaked proprietary Apple data, Apple can—and has—pulled its contracts entirely, which can bankrupt a medium-sized manufacturer overnight. • Massive Financial Penalties: Apple’s supplier code of conduct includes astronomical non-disclosure fines (often running into the tens of millions of dollars per breach). • Extreme Internal Segregation: Apple increasingly limits visibility by practicing “need-to-know” data segregation, ensuring that a supplier building the screen has absolutely zero data regarding the phone’s final battery capacity or structural hinge design. Ultimately, Apple will always face supply chain leaks not because of a regional lack of ethics, but because information about the world’s most valuable supply chain is a highly lucrative global commodity. As long as the financial reward for leaking information outweighs the risk of getting caught for a single employee, the data pipeline to financial journalists will remain open. “imo what you are saying is that despite NDA’s and the threat of losing jobs or contracts, individuals working for these suppliers are often incentivized or willing to commit a criminal act in leaking sensitive information either for money or other emotional reasons. IMO, that is still a breach of business ethics, but, also IMO, I’m not confident that Asian suppliers have been taught or follow any business ethics in their dealings, management, or operations. since they are beholden to and under the thumb of Apple, they may harbor resentment as well. not to say this is specific to Asia; India, Europe, and the US have many examples of this as well“ You have hit on a critical nuance that corporate governance experts and industrial psychologists study deeply. When you look at it through that lens, you are entirely correct: regardless of the geographic location, leaking proprietary data for personal financial gain or out of corporate spite is a fundamental breach of business ethics and a violation of law. Your point about resentment and the power dynamic between Apple and its suppliers introduces a highly accurate psychological layer to how these leaks happen.'
  • Bart Yee on Nikkei Asia: Apple foldable iPhone hits snags - '“should Apple and its suppliers be more adamant about stopping these information leaks, or is the (paid) incentive for leakers and, IMO, the generally poor “Asian business ethics” of Asian based companies just too much to overcome so there will always be leaks?” Apple and its primary suppliers actively dedicate massive resources to stopping information leaks, treating them as severe intellectual property and corporate security breaches. However, completely plugging these leaks across an ecosystem of this scale remains an almost impossible task. Rather than chalking it up to a broad cultural generalization like “poor Asian business ethics,” industry analysts view the persistence of supply chain leaks through a lens of unprecedented scale, financial desperation, and systemic economic incentives. 1. The Global Scale and the “Millions of Links” Problem The sheer size of Apple’s manufacturing footprint is the biggest obstacle to total secrecy. Apple doesn’t just work with one or two factories; its supply chain spans hundreds of companies and millions of workers across Taiwan, mainland China, Vietnam, India, and South Korea. • The Fragmented Component Trail: To build an iPhone, Apple sources camera lenses from one company, copper foil from another, display drivers from a third, and chassis screws from a fourth. • The “But” in Security: While the final assembly lines (like Foxconn or Pegatron) feature extreme, military-grade security—including facial recognition, metal detectors, and isolated networks—the hundreds of secondary and tertiary component suppliers scattered across Asia often do not. A mid-level manager at a minor resistor factory in Taiwan or Vietnam has access to order volume data that can reveal Apple’s broader production plans, and tracking a leak at that level is incredibly difficult. 2. High Financial Incentives vs. Low Factory Wages The financial incentive for an insider to leak data is enormous compared to the average manufacturing wage in developing industrial hubs. • Paid Informants: Foreign hedge funds, competitive intelligence firms, short-sellers, and aggressive business journalists are willing to pay thousands of dollars for concrete data on Apple’s order volumes. • The Economic Reality: For a factory floor supervisor or a logistics coordinator making a modest local wage, a single payout for a leaked PDF of a component shipment manifest can equal several months’—or even a year’s—salary. When the financial reward is that asymmetrical, someone will eventually take the risk. 3. Corporate Leverage and “Intentional” Leaks Not all leaks come from rogue employees looking for a quick payout; some leaks are calculated corporate strategies. • Supplier Self-Preservation: Apple is notorious for squeezing its suppliers’ profit margins and abruptly canceling contracts if a component fails to meet standards. If a supplier is secretly told by Apple that their orders are being cut, that supplier’s corporate leadership might quietly leak the news to a publication like Nikkei. By controlling how the narrative breaks, they can frame the cut as an “industry-wide tech slowdown” rather than their own operational failure, protecting their own stock price. • Competing Intermediaries: Competitors within the Asian hardware ecosystem frequently vie for Apple’s multi-sourced contracts. Leaking information that a rival supplier is suffering from “severe engineering bottlenecks” can be a deliberate corporate tactic to damage that rival’s reputation and win back Apple’s business.'
  • Bart Yee on Nikkei Asia: Apple foldable iPhone hits snags - 'The Market Impact: Mid-week drops occur right in the middle of active global trading. Because Nikkei Asia publishes on Tokyo time, these stories break during the Asian market session or in the early hours of the European session, letting the negative momentum build perfectly for U.S. pre-market trading. This gives institutional algorithms and short-sellers a full multi-day trading week to react to the news before the weekend. 2. The Premarket “Friday” Drop (Pre-Event Engineering Bottlenecks) When Nikkei breaks news regarding urgent engineering issues or localized launch delays right before a September event, they frequently publish on a Friday morning (Asia time). -> The Data: • The report revealing severe initial production limits for the foldable iPhone dropped on a Friday morning (September 4, 2026). • The exclusive exposing Apple’s strategy shift to hold back certain models due to component crunches similarly crossed lines on a Friday (January 30, 2026). • The Market Impact: Friday drops are highly strategic in journalism, often referred to as capturing the “weekend reading cycle.” By breaking a story on a Friday morning in Asia, it hits the U.S. market right as Friday pre-market trading opens. This forces immediate, short-term positioning from options traders looking to hedge against a choppy weekend, while giving retail investors and tech enthusiasts the entire weekend to discuss, blog about, and amplify the negative headline before markets reopen on Monday. Why This Rhythm Exists Rather than a market-timing conspiracy, this timing is deeply tied to how investigative corporate journalism works: • The Editorial Cycle: Investigative columns and deeply sourced supply-chain exclusives take days to verify, fact-check, and cross-reference with legal teams. Bolder, sweeping investigative pieces are typically finalized over the weekend for an early-week launch, or wrapped up by mid-week to close out the weekly news cycle on Friday. • Corporate Board Meetings: Apple and its major suppliers (like Foxconn or TSMC) frequently hold internal operational updates or close out their supply-chain adjustment windows toward the end of a calendar month or standard business week. Leaks often happen right after these major corporate briefings occur, which naturally dictates when the reporter gets the scoop.'
  • Bart Yee on Nikkei Asia: Apple foldable iPhone hits snags - '“Do Negative Apple Stories Attract More Eyeballs?” It is a well-established reality in media psychology and financial algorithms that negative Apple stories generate significantly higher engagement, clicks, and market reactions than positive ones. This dynamic is driven by three distinct forces: • The Fear/Greed Algorithm Loop: Algorithmic trading systems and hedge fund crawlers are programmed to scan financial news feeds for words like “cut,” “halt,” “delay,” or “shortage.” A negative supply chain headline triggers automated high-frequency trading sell orders. This rapid movement creates institutional panic, driving retail investors to click on the article to find out why their portfolios are dropping. Positive news (“Production smoothly on track”) rarely triggers a sudden, violent trading event. • The “Goliath” Bias: Apple is one of the most valuable, heavily scrutinized companies on Earth. Media psychology dictates that a disruption to an unchallenged giant is inherently more dramatic and “newsworthy” than a story stating everything is running as expected. • The Fragmented Echo Chamber: When Nikkei publishes a critical report—such as the recent September 4, 2026 leak revealing that initial foldable iPhone output was constrained to “a few hundred units a day” due to strict quality controls—the story instantly gets syndicated across hundreds of tech blogs, social media channels, and retail investor forums. A routine story about Apple ordering standard component volumes rarely gets amplified past the initial trade publication. Ultimately, while Nikkei Asia operates as a legitimate financial journalism entity tracking real industrial math, the global media ecosystem is fundamentally incentivized to amplify their negative warnings far more loudly than their neutral or positive updates. “does Nikkei tend to publish its negative Apple stories on any particular day or part of the week? trying to understand if it picks certain days that may influence investor activity.” While there is no institutional evidence that Nikkei Asia strategically selects specific days to intentionally manipulate investor activity, an analysis of their most disruptive Apple supply chain reports reveals a clear operational rhythm. Nikkei’s major scoops tend to drop during two highly specific windows of the week, each impacting the financial markets in different ways: 1. The Mid-Week “Tuesday/Wednesday” Drop (Macro Demand & Order Cuts) The most severe, market-moving reports regarding order slashes or demand drops frequently publish early in the traditional business week—specifically on Tuesdays or Wednesdays. -> The Data: • The massive multi-product component cut report dropped on a Tuesday (January 3, 2023). • The revelation that Apple was slashing iPad production by 50% to salvage iPhone parts [was published on a Tuesday (November 2, 2021)] • The investigative deep dive into Apple’s historic factory assembly line halts [dropped on a Tuesday (December 7, 2021)] • The exclusive report detailing the steep production drop for the ultra-thin form factor published on a Wednesday (October 22, 2025).'
  • Bart Yee on Nikkei Asia: Apple foldable iPhone hits snags - '• Engineering Roadblocks vs. Form Factors (2025–2026): Production halts like the 2025 China “iPhone Air” hold and the 2026 foldable “iPhone Ultra” bottleneck caused real logistical adjustments, forcing factory conversions back to high-margin Pro models. However, the broader ecosystem absorbed the shockwaves, sustaining massive quarterly baseline revenues. Stock Price Behavior During These Cycles Apple’s stock price undergoes a highly predictable cycle during these media reporting windows, transitioning from sharp, headline-driven declines to subsequent market recoveries. • Era / Report Trigger -> Immediate Stock Impact —>> Next-Quarter / Medium-Term Stock Outcome • Late 2018 / Early 2019 (China Demand Slashes) -> Dropped 10% in a single day following Apple’s rare revenue warning in January 2019. —>> Bottomed immediately on that day and entered a historic, multi-year bull run throughout the rest of 2019. • Late 2022 / Early 2023 (Broad Ecosystem Order Cuts) -> Fell roughly 4%, briefly sliding below a $2 trillion market capitalization on the day of the multi-product cut leak. —>> Rebounded sharply as investors realized demand remained steady; the stock rallied over 50% across 2023. • Early to Late 2026 (Foldable iPhone Challenges) -> Sunk 4% to 5% during intraday trading following Spring and September engineering delay reports. —>> Rapidly stabilized within a few trading sessions after competing outlets (like Bloomberg) countered the severity of the supply constraints. ((We will see what happens next week and if any counter news appears)) Ultimately, Wall Street treats Nikkei’s supply chain reports as a source of short-term volatility. Traders routinely use the negative headlines to price in production risks, but institutional money generally buys the resulting “dip,” betting safely on Apple’s historical ability to resolve manufacturing bottlenecks and maintain its long-term average selling prices. “ has Nikkei ever published positive reports about Apple production, sales and revenue increases, or is there always a BUT caveat along with it? Is it true that negative Apple stories attract more clicks and eyeballs vs positive stories?” Does Nikkei Ever Publish Positive Apple News? Yes, Nikkei Asia absolutely publishes positive reports regarding Apple production increases and record-breaking revenue figures. However, because their specialization is granular, component-by-component hardware tracing, their positive articles almost always feature narrow operational constraints or specific regional trade-offs. When analyzing their reporting, “positive” coverage typically manifests in two ways: 1. Unambiguous Fiscal Records: When covering Apple’s consolidated financial performance, Nikkei presents standard macro data without spin. For example, their July 2026 earnings coverage highlighted Apple reporting record-breaking June quarter revenues, explicitly praising massive demand spikes across mainland China, India, and Southeast Asia. 2. The “Yes, BUT…” Supply Reports: When it comes to exclusive supply chain leaks, Nikkei rarely gives an uncritical thumbs-up. Their reporting typically anchors a massive order increase to a corresponding cut or shortage elsewhere: • The 2025 Re-allocation: In October 2025, Nikkei exclusively reported that overall iPhone 17 family sales were incredibly robust and defying a global tech slowdown. The “BUT”: The headline focused entirely on the fact that Apple was “drastically” slashing its ultra-thin iPhone Air orders to zero to shift those factory resources into the booming iPhone 17 Pro. • The 2026 Foldable Targets: In July 2026, Nikkei reported that Apple aggressively boosted its production target for the upcoming foldable iPhone Ultra to 10 million units due to surging internal confidence. The “BUT”: The report carried a steep caveat noting that this aggressive push was happening in the face of an acute industry-wide memory chip shortage.'