Recent Comments

  • Richard Gayle on Mark Gurman: John Ternus hangs out in Apple's industrial design shop - 'Remember these groups are having to overcome the years Dye was in charge. New leaders and new members. He was put in charge of them and likely has been transitioning them into the full Apple culture. Or his view of the culture. I wonder how much he had input into the final Duo design? Apple is releasing a lot of new hardware so I am glad the hardware guy is more hands on here. These releases will be harbingers of Apple’s future so better make them something he can support. Being hands on is a good thing.'
  • Dan Scropos on Mark Gurman: John Ternus hangs out in Apple's industrial design shop - 'This is awesome to hear. I often felt Apple had degrees of shipping paralysis and fuzzy use cases under Tim Cook. This could explain some of that. I never understood how HomePod and Vision Pro would have been released under Steve Jobs. Still not completely sure of their purpose(s). With this new approach, Ternus, Apple, consumers, and shareholders could benefit from real-time feedback, a reduction in rework/redesign, and maintaining release momentum. There’s probably also a return to some degree of psychological cultural safety that exited with Jobs. That is, a firsthand account that projects maintain accuracy and use case, while understanding and helping with any potential constraints. There’s probably many differing opinions, but this is incredibly exciting, at least for me.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (10/5-10/9/26) - 'Apple ended Friday trading at $333.69. This is a price range first reached in the latter half of July. The shares are up 22.75% year-to-date and up nearly 30% over the past 12 months. Over the same periods the NASDAQ Composite is up 16.99% year-to-date and 19.03% over the past twelve months. The S&P 500 is up 12.81% year-to-date and has gained 15% even over the past 12 months. Apple has outperformed both major indexes over those two periods.'
  • Ben Gepp on Mark Gurman: John Ternus hangs out in Apple's industrial design shop - '‘Visiting several times a day’ sounds disruptive. In my design practice we had a 3hour morning slot where we discouraged interaction so that you could immerse yourself in the problem. Every conversation, every meeting is a break in concentration. Clearly the design problems they are tackling at Apple are complex and require deep uninterrupted thought. …but I think it’s great that there is renewed interest in the ID department.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (10/5-10/9/26) - 'For those that have yet to migrate their Apple devices to the latest operating systems I urge to consider doing so sooner rather than later. This Apple Newsroom article from September 14th has all the relevant information: https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/09/major-updates-for-apples-software-platforms-are-now-available/
 I’ve just completed the updates on my devices and I’m working through the updates on the Apple devices for other members of the household. I’m becoming more positive on Apple with each major update I install. Seeing the ways in which my Apple Watch(es), iMacs, iPads and iPhone all work together so seamlessly and benefiting (marvelously!) from the new Siri really provide clarity on what I see as Apple’s opportunities over the next year.'
  • Steven Philips on Mark Gurman: John Ternus hangs out in Apple's industrial design shop - 'So – if the company owner stays out of the workers’ hair (stays in the break room) more work gets done? 🙂'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (10/5-10/9/26) - 'In my reading share prices, in general, are being propelled higher by higher earnings and not earnings multiple expansion. Apple has recently reached new all-time highs. This is due in part to market sentiment on the latest new product announcements. However, both Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have cautioned Apple’s decision to moderate price increases in the face of higher memory costs may influence gross margins in FY2027 which began last Sunday (September 27th). I’m quite bullish on the latest product announcements. I do expect further appreciation in the share price to be driven by net income growth and expectations for continued net income growth and moderated by some margin compression, which will occur market wide, in 2027.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Mark Gurman: John Ternus hangs out in Apple's industrial design shop - 'When I had my little 20 something person company I used to hang out in the break room a lot (large enough to accommodate 100+ people). After about 2 or 3 months I noticed that people spent less time there. I also noticed that productivity went up.'
  • Dan Scropos on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Robert, I could not agree more. I just went from an Apple Watch series 7 to the Apple Watch 12 and I am completely blown away. Oddly enough, though, my wife first bought me the Apple Watch Ultra 4, but I immediately returned it. I did not like the weight, the size, or the clunkiness of it. It’s just too big and, to me, kind of unsightly. Now the Apple Watch series 12? Absolute perfection. I have the titanium and sapphire edition, and I’m loving it. The screen is huge, it’s noticeably thinner and extremely lightweight. It checks every box I could ask for.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Dan: I’m quite impressed with the functionality and performance enhancements in this year’s Apple Watch models. Yesterday this story in Popular Mechanics found its way into my Apple News+ feed. It features the “10 Best Apple Watch Accessories You Didn’t Know You Needed.”
 https://apple.news/A6F0Ku1-7TYe65aFRXVEo1w After reading the story I visited the Apple site to see the accessories offered through Apple. Even the accessories for the Apple Watch are becoming a good-sized business! My point is from a financial perspective the new hub and an upgraded Apple TV 4K will add even more “adhesion” to an already “sticky” eco-system. I have to upgrade at least one of the Apple TVs in the house and I have a very good idea where I will place the new home hub. My only question is: Can I put one upstairs and one downstairs and have them work together?'
  • Dan Scropos on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I’m extraordinarily excited for this announcement to happen as well. Apple continues to expand an already attractive ecosystem by entering more and more consumer segments. With the Duo, they’re entering foldables and I expect the entrance to be largely successful. This should be more of the same. Entering the Home could provide a long and profitable runway.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Dan: Yes. I’m excited for both the home hub and the new Apple TV 4K. These products bolster the barriers to competition and help widen Apple’s economic moat.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Last stop in France: Bordeaux - 'John: I believe the iPhone Duo convincingly evidences Apple hasn’t lost its passion for innovation and it will have its own halo effect for the iPhone franchise. Not only will the Duo attract new customers to Apple, it will also be on the aspirational path of current iPhone owners that might not make the jump to the Duo this year. I’m less concerned about the unit sales in its first year of release than I’m bullish on what the Duo will do for the iPhone line over the next few years.'
  • Dan Scropos on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Interesting rumor floating around: OCT. 13 SMART HOME LAUNCH Apple reportedly plans to unveil a Siri-powered home hub alongside refreshed HomePod mini and Apple TV 4K hardware. The hub could mark Apple’s entry into the smart-display category.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I’d like to share this Morgan Stanley podcast with the community. In this episode Andrew Sheets talks about the resilience of equity prices in the face of rising interest rates and the importance of rising profits in a higher interest rate environment. In other words, in a rising interest rate environment Apple’s share price is apt to move higher not from multiple expansion but through net income growth. I remain bullish and Morgan Stanley just reiterated the firm’s Overweight rating on Apple. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tension-between-equities-and-bonds/id1466686717?i=1000792891668'
  • John Konopka on Last stop in France: Bordeaux - '@Gregg Not disputing your point, it seems that the Duo is the first step into a new class of products. As Apple gains experience with the design and experience of folding devices we may see more products, more easily made and at better prices with better reliability. I stopped at an Apple Store this morning to confirm that the Duo will be in the Apple stores October 23. The person I spoke with said interest was running high and they expected heavy crowds around that time as people want to come in and touch them and get a look. All that foot traffic will likely drive sales of other products.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Last stop in France: Bordeaux - '”Foldables are still a relatively niche product, making up roughly 4% of smartphone sales in China and about 2% globally, according to Counterpoint.” Without the base model iPhones present in the mix, the Duo may represent 6% to 8% of iPhone sales. But how many of these were cannibalized from iPhone Pro and Pro Max units. Whatever the cannibalization rate is (40%-50%?), I’ll take it. I just don’t think the Duo, in the larger scheme of things, is going to be the wild success so many are claiming. Not with a $2,000 starting price. Niche is an understatement.'
  • Bart Yee on Last stop in France: Bordeaux - 'Posted by WSJ October 1, 2026, may be paywalled. https://www.wsj.com/business/telecom/apples-biggest-battleground-for-foldable-phones-is-china-a15b9663 Apple’s Biggest Battleground for Foldable Phones Is China Huawei and other Chinese competitors reported higher demand for foldables after announcement of iPhone Duo By Hannah Miao Demand for some foldable phones in China is surging, even before Apple’s new foldable iPhone Duo arrives. That suggests an opportunity for Apple to expand what has been a niche category—if it can overcome competition from Chinese brands. Winning over China is key to Apple’s fortunes. The country makes up more than a third of global folding smartphone sales and is the largest single market for foldables, according to research firm Counterpoint Research. Chinese company Huawei is currently the market leader in China, both for foldables and smartphones generally. Huawei released its first folding smartphone in 2019. Other Chinese brands, including Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo and Honor, have been selling foldables for years. After Apple announced its first foldable iPhone in early September, sales during the following four days of Huawei’s Pura X Max—which has similar dimensions to the Duo—grew about 77% from the same period a week earlier, according to Huawei. More than 1.4 million units of the Pura X Max have been sold since its release in April, according to Huawei. Xiaomi’s 18 Fold, another passport-size folding phone, notched record first-week sales for the company’s foldables after its release in early September, a representative said. Richard Yu, chairman of Huawei’s consumer business, said the company has invested heavily to make breakthroughs in screen reliability and camera quality for its foldables. “I know how hard-earned these achievements were, which is why we are a leader in this business,” said Yu. Apple didn’t respond to a request for comment. Foldables are still a relatively niche product, making up roughly 4% of smartphone sales in China and about 2% globally, according to Counterpoint. They can be fragile, and it is harder to put a good camera on a folding smartphone. Still, brands hope foldables can attract higher-end customers. Huawei’s Pura X Max starts at the equivalent of more than $1,600. It also has been selling trifolding smartphones that unfurl twice, like a pamphlet. Huawei’s second-generation trifold, called the Mate XT2, released in early September, starts at nearly $3,000. The iPhone Duo starts at $1,999 in the U.S. and 15,999 yuan in China, equivalent to nearly $2,400. Apple has said consumers in the U.S., China and many other countries will be able to preorder the iPhone Duo on Oct. 16, and it will be available a week later… …Despite Apple’s late entry into the market, Counterpoint projects the company will sell up to six million foldable iPhones this year and take a quarter of the global foldables market. The firm predicts Apple will beat out Huawei’s 22% global market share. Foldable pioneer Samsung, which has only a small presence in China, is expected to maintain its lead with a 38% global share in foldables, according to Counterpoint. Huawei is effectively barred from selling its products in the U.S. It has been blacklisted by the U.S. government since 2019 and is effectively blocked from using American technology. The company has gotten around these U.S. barriers by developing its own chips and operating systems. Its latest lineup of smartphones, the Mate 90 Series, released Thursday, uses technology to layer circuits within a single chip, aiming to boost computing power despite lacking access to cutting-edge machinery. The global shortage of memory chips has pushed up smartphone prices. Sun Lei, a 50-year-old Huawei customer, said he was interested in buying the Mate XT2 trifold phone: “The only thing holding me back right now is money.”'
  • Bill Fouche on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Bart: Thank you for all of this detailed information. You are so generous with your time in sharing it. You do it often. And it is greatly appreciated!'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Back to Jefferies, regarding mixed lead times: “Jefferies said lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max shortened across most markets early in the previous week before increasing again towards the weekend. As of September 27, iPhone 18 Pro Max lead times were longer than a year earlier in Hong Kong, China and the United States, shorter in Britain and Germany, and unchanged in Japan. For the iPhone 18 Pro, lead times were longer year over year in Hong Kong and China, shorter in the United States and Germany, and unchanged in Britain and Japan. ((Gee, longer times YOY for BOTH Pro models in Hong Kong AND China, so much for reseller comments that demand seems soft, too bad!! Maybe they really don’t want to buy from you and your inflated prices.)) And “an explanation”: “The analysts cautioned that the later increase could reflect tighter availability as Apple increases production of its DUO device ahead of deliveries scheduled to begin October 23, rather than an increase in underlying demand.“ Jefferies, YOU really believe Apple is pulling production capacity away from Pro Models to build capacity for Duo, while they have significant excess capacity continuing to build iPhone 17 but NOT producing the base iPhone 18, Air/Air 2, and older models? IMO, in other words, Jefferies really hasn’t a clue, and somehow doesn’t believe Apple hasn’t (clearly) been planning production capacity like forever, managing to actually reduce production costs (by eliminating costly third shifts and overtime by bifurcating introductions AND diversifying to India) while dealing with a tight RAM market and newer designs. As before, isolated supply chain hiccups are NOT necessarily indications of significant constraints, until at least Apple itself announces them. As for Duo, even if production is taking longer to ramp up, demand there is likely to keep building and create FOMO for normal buyers, for resellers and gray market buyers, and interested users, leading to what most of us believe to be much more than expected demand and very tight, even scarce Duo supply for some time, despite the issues below. And lastly the Duo e-SIM sold in China which can carry 2 numbers vs Hong Kong regular physical SIMs which can manage up to 8 numbers, supposedly an issue if traveling and you want easy accessibility to multiple numbers in multiple locations or foreign countries, especially in China. Here I agree there is more friction in China regarding carrying more than 2 multiple numbers, requiring strict in person at store phone number management, and getting more from the state owned Chinese Telecoms means them giving up their lucrative roaming charges business models as well as complying with current Chinese regulator rules on ID’s, numbers, and tracking. But is it a big threat to ultimate adoption for well heeled businessmen and women, domestic and foreign travelers, and other use cases? We will just have to let that play out. Maybe those people get their hands on a Hong Kong instead of China only version? Like any new product, Apple had to make choices and some compromises for the greater design goals. With the Duo, some specific “deficits” and “missing features” may be evident with first adopters, but becomes a roadmap for future updates and upgrades for the Duo II and Duo III, plus Duo Max or Duo Pro. Can’t please all of the people all of the time, but maybe 6M this year, 10-14M in 2027, and with a possible update in 2027-2028, who knows?'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - 'There are lots of reasons why (if they truly are) resale pricing of iPhone 18s appear to be soft compared to last year’s iPhone 17. My favorite is the introduction of iPhone Duo. I’ve been negative about the financial impact of a foldable iPhone from the beginning. My sense was that (still is) there is no real market for a $2,000 (minimum) foldable handset. Most purchases of the Duo will be cannibalized from iPhone Pro and Pro Max models. Given that an extremely few consumers will buy 2 iPhones for their personal use, those that would have bought a Pro or Pro Max are waiting for the Duo to ship.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Starting in Q4 CY2023, Berkshire Hathaway divested roughly 670 million Apple shares (about 74% of its peak stake) over the past three years. Its peak holdings were 915M shares. How much did BRK earn from those sales? Total Shares Divested ~670M shares Gross Revenue (Proceeds) ~$124 Billion —>> estimated average price of $180-185 per share Total Invested Cost Basis ~$22.5 Billion Realized Pre-Tax Profits ~$100 Billion Estimated Taxes Paid ~$21 Billion Total Net After-Tax Profits ~$79 Billion BRK added that $79B to its now total $325B cash stockpile, adding 24% of the value, moved directly into short-term U.S. Treasury bills. That hoard now generates over $13B in annual interest while having no stock market risk. The $79B portion generates about $3.2B in interest, of course higher than the $750M in AAPL annual dividends it would have made. Of course, if BRK had held, it would have, lemme see here, about $100B over the $124B gross proceeds, about 44% more than when they finished selling. Don’t be sad for BRK, they still have 228M AAPL shares left worth $76B, still their largest position, but GOOGL has been quickly built into its #3 holding. Based on today’s close, the total value of Berkshire’s top five equity blocks stands at an astounding $218.52 billion Apple $76.05B + American Express $45.90B + Alphabet $36.32B + Coca-Cola $34.27B + Bank of America $25.98B). From fourth quarter (Q4) 2023 through today, Apple has repurchased and retired approximately 1.22 billion shares from circulation. The Shrinking Share Count • Shares Outstanding (Q4 2023): ~15.81 billion shares • Shares Outstanding (Current): ~14.59 billion shares • Net Reduction: ~7.7% of the total company share count 1.22B shares, wiped out in roughly three years. Total Dollars Deployed To achieve this massive reduction, Apple utilized its massive free cash flow to execute the following buybacks: • Fiscal 2024: $100.4 billion spent (including a record-breaking $110 billion single authorization) • Fiscal 2025: $96.7 billion spent • Fiscal 2026: Supported by an additional $100 billion program authorized for the year. (Total ~$272B for 1.22B shares, ASP ~ $223/share.) Essentially, Apple, in 3 years, has retired more stock than BRK ever held during its entire AAPL share ownership. Those 670M shares BRK put back into the market were essentially absorbed and retired by Apple and then some.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'It’s already drawn a very public response from Apple: 

https://developer.apple.com/news/?id=p6zjojqw From Apple: “We give developers powerful APIs to build incredible capabilities into their apps for Apple products, backed by a set of controls designed to protect users’ private data. Full Disk Access largely sidesteps these controls in order to allow backup apps to function properly on the Mac. Some developers are using Full Disk Access in ways that could put users at risk, exposing everything on their systems—including files, mail, messages, and even browsing history—without users’ full knowledge and understanding. For communication apps, this can also compromise the privacy of the people users are communicating with. Going forward, we will introduce additional controls to ensure that users who genuinely wish to grant an app this extraordinary level of access can only do so with very explicit user action. Addressing this is critical. As AI agents become increasingly capable and autonomous, the risks associated with this level of access will grow substantially. We are committed to ensuring users clearly understand these risks before granting such access, so they can make informed decisions about their own data and privacy.”'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Anyone else following this “full disk access” story? This from TechCrunch: https://apple.news/Ad74VfOiqQaCX04ElPij9jg'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - '“ The broker also pointed to Apple’s use of lower-cost QLC NAND rather than TLC NAND in the 1TB and 2TB versions. Jefferies said the change could affect the relative appeal of the higher-capacity models based on storage performance.” While this is true, but according to Tom’s Hardware Guide: “It’s important to note that these are synthetic benchmarks and are meant to represent a worse case scenario. Users should not experience any performance issues during typical tasks such as web browsing, messaging, gaming, or taking photos. Any slowdown is likely to be noticeable only during specific workloads, such as 4K or ProRes recording, large file transfers, or data backup restores. Having said that, testing by Homolab does point to the trade-off involved in using QLC NAND for a high-capacity flagship smartphone, particularly for users who regularly deal with storage-intensive tasks.“ For the technical details: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ssds/iphone-18-pro-max-storage-can-drop-lower-than-a-hard-drive-at-1-1-mb-s-during-heavy-writes-qlc-nand-offers-higher-capacity-but-reportedly-suffers-38-percent-drop-compared-to-tlc-based-pro Would it be a deterrent for Pro Models or for the Duo? Maybe a select few in Prosumer applications and use cases, but for most above average Apple users in this price tier, not sure they are aware of it, or would approach these limits. Again, another theoretical situation that applies to a fairly small (but important, every sale is important) user population. Likely to be remedied if and when high capacity TLC NAND Storage comes back to earth.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - '“The grey market for Android smartphones operates on fundamentally different mechanics than Apple’s ecosystem. While the iPhone market is a steady, predictable pipeline built on international tax evasion, the Android secondary market relies strictly on extreme hardware scarcity, volatile local currencies, and geopolitical software isolation. When scalping occurs for Android devices, it frequently commands much higher brief premiums than iPhones, but it struggles to achieve the same long-term national scale. A premier example of Android scalping is found in Huawei’s ultra-premium tier, particularly its tri-fold flagship series. Because Huawei creates severe artificial scarcity for these hyper-engineered foldables, market demand completely breaks standard retail expectations. At launch, the Mate XT retailed for roughly twenty-eight hundred dollars, but massive waiting lists allowed scalpers at electronics hubs to flip individual devices for over ninety-eight hundred dollars. This generated staggering seven-thousand-dollar pure profit premiums per phone through proxy-buying syndicates. Despite these massive spikes, the Android grey market fails to scale globally like Apple’s for three structural reasons. First, the global bootloader and regional software wall fracture the user experience. Sourcing a premium Huawei device from China means it operates on HarmonyOS without Google Mobile Services out of the box, making it unusable for everyday Western consumers. Second, Android flagships suffer from rapid depreciation curves. Frequent manufacturer discounts and aggressive carrier trade-in promotions mean middlemen risk losing money if they cannot export inventory immediately. Finally, Android manufacturers intentionally price their devices cheaper in developing nations, organically eliminating the profit margins that third-party smugglers try to capture. Samsung devices are heavily traded on the grey market, though their movement is driven entirely by price arbitrage rather than supply shortages. Traders exploit major geographic price gaps caused by steep import tariffs in regions like Latin America. For instance, middlemen bulk-buy standard unlocked factory US variants of the Galaxy series and smuggle them into Mexico or Brazil, selling them at thirty to forty percent below official local retail prices. Furthermore, major online e-commerce platforms frequently host third-party sellers listing heavily discounted international regional variants sourced from Malaysia or the Middle East. Because Samsung actively fights this unauthorized practice, it deploys much more aggressive software barriers and legal blocks than Apple ever does. To prevent cross-market reselling, Samsung implements a mandatory five-minute regional SIM lock, requiring a continuous phone call using a native SIM in the origin country before an exported device can function globally. Additionally, recent US hardware configurations are rigidly locked out of accepting foreign network eSIMs or international physical SIM cards permanently. Most aggressively, Samsung launched an automated campaign in Mexico that pushed severe system warnings and remotely disabled grey-market smartphones entirely. Although consumer protection pressure eventually forced them to suspend the remote bricking policy, the underlying infrastructure to disable unauthorized imports remains a major deterrent for buyers. Ultimately, navigating the highly complex global Android grey market requires balancing steep upfront discounts against severe regional software lockdowns, strict global hardware restrictions, unexpected carrier incompatibility issues, and potential software security penalties to ensure the product remains functional.”'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'The NASDAQ Composite reached a new all-time intraday high today of 27,353.68 before closing up 1.19% on the day at 27,190.86. All four major indexes ended in the green. NVIDIA also set a new all-time intraday high of $237.87 and a new all-time closing high of $233.95. Morgan Stanley renamed NVIDIA its top semiconductor stock and set a price target on the shares of $300. NVIDIA’s market cap at the close was $5.65 trillion and is followed by Apple at $4.87 trillion.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Ok, so why would “demand” and falling premiums for gray market Hong Kong iPhones be softer than before? 1) with just iPhone Pro models to make, Foxconn and Apple don’t have to run extra full time and overtime production lines for Pro AND base models to meet even normal demand for just Pro Models. Even with delivery times stretched 4-6 weeks, Apple can concentrate on highest quality and sufficient supply for most regions. 2) yes, price can be a moderator of demand. With official retail prices already increased, maybe some users don’t feel the additional gray market premium markup is worth the hassle, risks, and operational headaches. So they’re going to exercise some patience and get the product they want and need and avoid the extra extra costs, risks, and whatever else de-motivates them. 3) obviously, there’s still plenty of demand for this type of arbitrage, and it’s common in Asian countries, as it is all over including the US (MLB playoff tickets, Super Bowl or specific concert tickets are similar with buyers, sellers, ticket resellers, etc.) Stock Market is no different, where have we heard the old saw – “took advantage of market inefficiencies “? But maybe the market (buyers) just don’t see the advantages as clearly as before, have more patience or the market evolves towards more export rather then local sales. The resellers will adapt quickly, no doubt. Frankly, don’t care for them, but as long as humans believe they can make a buck exploiting the emotions (want and desires, NOW), it’ll happen. And it isn’t small, estimate suggest 4-5M units change hands or cross borders within the first 3-6 weeks of introduction, using ingenious methods like drones flying zip lines across rivers (moved up to 15,000 units overnight), intercepting couriers (“ants”) with 40-140 iPhones strapped to their bodies, or industrial palette sized shipments sent to international electronics distributors. All in the name of profit, at every tier. But IMO, it’s hardly a concrete or significantly relevant indicator of gross demand for Apple iPhones, taking the words of a street farmer, middleman, or shop as some concrete indicator of supply OR demand. Worse than having a mole inside a parts supplier or the Foxconn factory. (BTW, similar arbitrage happens from US to LATAM, India to Russia, Africa & West Asia, Japan to HK, Far East, and Dubai to Eastern Europe, ironically, Iran.) Guess the desire for iPhones is universal.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - '“what about warranties, AppleCare and repairs, not to mention network compatibility?” When navigating the Hong Kong grey market, warranties and hardware configurations become highly restrictive. What seems like an identical phone on the surface has significant underlying structural, legal, and network differences. Warranties and AppleCare: The Global Catch The biggest myth of the grey market is that Apple offers an unrestricted universal global warranty on all products. According to Apple’s Official Warranty Terms, Apple explicitly reserves the right to restrict hardware service to the original country or region of sale. The Local Refusal Risk: If you buy a Hong Kong model iPhone and take it back to the UK, US, or Europe, your local Apple Store is not legally obligated to service it under the standard 1-year limited warranty. For simple repairs like a battery or screen replacement, they might accommodate you. However, if the device suffers a major logic board failure requiring a whole-unit replacement, local stores will likely refuse service because they do not stock the specific regional hardware variants. AppleCare+ Limitations: If you purchase AppleCare+ for a Hong Kong device, the policy technically follows the phone’s serial number. However, the same regional logistics apply. For example, if you attempt to use Hong Kong AppleCare+ in mainland China, users on Zhihu note you may be forced to provide strict immigration proof of entry/exit documents, official original purchase receipts, or pay localized price differences before any repair is authorized. Third-Party Shop Warranties: Many parallel-import stores at Sin Tat Plaza offer their own “in-house standard warranties” (typically 6 to 12 months). Be careful: these only cover functional parts if you physically bring the phone back to their specific stall in Hong Kong, and they absolutely do not transfer over to Apple. Network and Hardware Compatibility Hong Kong iPhones feature entirely different hardware architecture compared to Western models, presenting both a major benefit and a massive headache: • The Dual Physical SIM Tray: Unlike US models that have completely phased out physical trays in favor of eSIM, or European models that utilize 1 physical SIM + 1 eSIM, Hong Kong, Macau, and mainland China iPhones feature a specialized double-sided physical nano-SIM tray. They do not support standard eSIM provisioning for Western carriers on flagship tiers. If your home mobile carrier relies exclusively on eSIM, a Hong Kong phone will be unusable without converting your plan back to a physical nano-SIM card. Cellular Band Discrepancies: While modern iPhones are generally broad-spectrum, different regional models support different specific 5G and LTE bands. A Hong Kong model might lack specific millimeter-wave (mmWave) 5G bands used by major US carriers (like Verizon or AT&T), meaning that while the phone will work globally, you might experience slightly slower maximum cellular speeds or patchy coverage in certain deep-interior Western transit zones.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - '“WHO are those guys?” The “Scalpers” (Apple Farmers) • Everyday locals, students, and hired “granny armies”. They exploit Apple’s online lottery system to buy the max allowance at launch, walk right out of the store, and flip them on the pavement for an instant HK$2,000 cash profit. ((More like day traders, NOT to be confused with Apple 3.0 investors :-))) The Middlemen (Traders) • Independent operators standing outside Apple Stores with suitcases. They buy up stock directly from the street scalpers, pool hundreds of phones into suitcases, and immediately sell them upstream to handle the logistics of bulk moving. Independent Retail Stores • Independent phone stalls, centered at Sin Tat Plaza in Mong Kok. These shops buy from the middlemen. They function as the consumer-facing hub for buyers who want a device without a waitlist, or as exporters pushing stock to overseas markets. Why This Massive Market Exists in Hong Kong This massive resale network thrives because Hong Kong is entirely duty-free with no sales tax or VAT on electronics. This makes the city’s official Apple Store prices among the lowest in the world. Because nearby regions like mainland China, Vietnam, and the Middle East face high import tariffs, luxury taxes, or launch delays, massive international arbitrage demand is created. The “resellers” are simply capturing the profit margins left open by those global tax disparities.“ “Where They Are Buying From (The Source) The sourcing stage is incredibly localized and relies entirely on exploiting Hong Kong’s retail availability: • Official Apple Stores: The ultimate origin of almost every phone in this ecosystem is one of Hong Kong’s official retail outlets. The heaviest activity happens right outside the flagship Apple IFC Mall in Central and Apple Hysan Place in Causeway Bay. The Pavement “Trading Floors”: • Individual scalpers and local buyers who secure day-one pickup slots walk straight out of the glass doors and sell their devices directly to middlemen waiting on the sidewalk. Middlemen display signs showing 现价 (cash spot prices) to attract sellers looking to flip their phones instantly for cash. Telecom Bundles: • Independent retail shops also buy up “surplus” stock from locals who renew their mobile carrier contracts. Telecom companies frequently bundle heavily subsidized iPhones with high-end data plans; users who only care about the cheap data plan immediately sell the unopened iPhone to grey-market shops to pocket the cash. Where They Are Selling To (The Destinations) Once the stock is centralized by middlemen and independent shops, it is distributed across three main channels: • Mainland China (The Primary Hub): Historically, mainland China was the absolute biggest destination due to delayed product launches and strict import tariffs. Even with simultaneous launch dates today, Hong Kong iPhones remain highly desirable in the mainland because they feature a physical dual-SIM tray (which Chinese consumers highly favor over eSIMs) and completely bypass China’s luxury sales taxes. Independent traders frequently smuggle or transport these bulk orders across the Shenzhen border. • International Cross-Border Markets: A massive percentage of the stock gathered at electronics hubs like Sin Tat Plaza (83 Argyle St, Mong Kok) is sold to wholesale exporters. These exporters ship the devices in bulk to regions with notoriously high electronic import taxes or restricted Apple distribution networks, such as Vietnam, India, the Philippines, Russia, and the Middle East. • The Local “Impatient” Market: A smaller percentage is sold right in Hong Kong to local consumers or tourists who missed the online preorder windows and are willing to pay a premium to skip a 4-to-6 week shipping delay.”'