Recent Comments

  • Gregg Thurman on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'Bullish Cross, wasn’t that Andy Zaky’s investment blog? If you lost due to his advice you were not alone. He got sued for millions, then disappeared. I can’t blame you for being sour on options after that experience.'
  • David Baraff on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'No, all decisions were made on my own. I’ve never, ever used a broker. (I wouldn’t bother, unless they were better at it than I am, and if they were, why would they bother to be working as a broker?) My only real loss was from buying vertical call spreads, back in the days of Bullish Cross, in 2012-2014. A play where time ran out before the stock recovered. But putting that aside, the only trading since then (i.e. from 2012) has been selling occasional AAPL covered calls. And I can say that though I certainly made money on that (because you literally *cannot* lose money selling a covered call), I made *less* money than if I’d never entered into it at all, because AAPL was always going up, up, up, and there’ve been times when the stock has been called away. I’m not saying people can’t make money with options: I’m just here to say your odds of doing it are way lower than you think they are. Someone out there may prove me wrong. Most won’t. Common stock may be boring, but it’s awful forgiving when things go sideways, compared with options. Basically, I’ve held AAPL since 2005, never ever selling, so my return is pretty much astronomical. It’s just that occasional options forays have cut it down by a smidge, not really enough for me to notice, but enough for me to get up on my high horse and issue the warning: “There be dragons here.”'
  • Gregg Thurman on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'David, I’m guessing your broker guided your Options decision. Getting burnt in that scenario is understandable. Your broker earns peanuts recommending options. His real earnings comes from commissions on buying/selling equities. That’s where his loyalties exist. It wasn’t options that created the bad taste in your mouth, it was your broker whose interests weren’t aligned with yours. Until you are able to make your own learned decisions, I would recommend that you not trade options. Fee based brokers aren’t going to guide you without their own self interest interfering with their objectivity.'
  • David Baraff on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'Options trading is, flat out, dangerous. It’s extremely difficult to ever get right. The real problem is that with stocks, pretty much any decision you make doesn’t have time pressure. Bought some AAPL and hoping to sell it, but it’s lower than when you bought it? That’s OK, just wait. As long as you need to. The problem with options is you not only have to get the direction right, you have to get the timing right. There are too many “black swan” events out there that’ll destroy you. Yes, you can succeed at options. You just probably won’t. (For all the money I’ve ever made with the simplest, most basic strategy, which is selling covered calls which is the first thing they’ll ever recommend you do, it turns out that if I had simply done *nothing*, I would have made a lot *more money. Said differently, even with the most basic of options strategies, I made less money with this strategy than I would have just sitting on my hands.) Every choice you make with regard to stocks (buy a stock? Sell it? Do nothing? Buy an option? Sell it? Don’t do it at all) is a choice on a continuum of infinitely many decisions you must make. *Not* buying AAPL, yesterday, was a choice you made. Or didn’t. All I’m saying is that in my experience, most any choices you will make with options will be… …. worse than the choices that don’t involve options. Take it from someone who has been investing in AAPL since 2005. I’ve made a ton of money on AAPL. Just not with AAPL options.'
  • Rick Povich on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'Thanks Greg. Options trading has always mystified me, but I ultimately wanted to try – and not lose a bunch of money. The step-by-step process is what I needed but just couldn’t grasp without some hand-holding. Your example above seems to be a good one'
  • Fred Stein on Citi hikes its Apple price target $15 to $315 - 'Good catch. Just a guess, he may refer to a launch of an iPhone 18e, successor the 16e. Apple updates their ‘budget’ phones at a slower cadence and in the spring. It makes economic sense to launch budget phones after the surge of a new launch when manufacturing and component costs decline.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'I don’t have the ambition that PED has. I will limit my “tutorials” to answering questions. Most times the answers will be rather detailed (I’m assuming the questioner’s knowledge is limited). Don’t let your lack of knowledge stop you from asking a question. I’ve found that there is always someone smarter, and someone always less knowledgeable than I. Together we can improve all of our understandings. We just have to ask (without fear).'
  • Gregg Thurman on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'All brokerages have an education section. Refer to that. Caution: I think of myself as a reasonably intelligent person. Brokerage primers are written by and for the knowledgeable. I don’t recommend them. My education began with a recommendation by a friend. That trade was successful and I was hooked. From then on (post January 2005) I did a postmortem on all of my trades. Specifically I was looking for the information I needed that would have led to a better trade. It took over a year for me to get to a point where made money more often than I lost. Hopefully I can shorten your learning curve. Remember, it’s one thing to know the mechanics of Options trading, and another to do it successfully. I hope to teach both. When I joined Apple 3.0 I was hoping to find an investment forum that would improve my trading. Alas, Apple 3.0 has (in my opinion) devolved into a rumor tracker/discussion group, or maybe it always was. Nevertheless, I enjoyed the company because there weren’t any anti-Apple trolls here. That was a tremendous improvement over the free sites. Apparently trolls aren’t willing to pay to spread their venom.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - ' Then, assume I think it will go down to 260. Let’s not go there until you are totally comfortable with the first tranche of your question.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - ' Let’s say I believe Apple will hit 290 by the end of the year. There are many that would trade such a small delta in such a short time frame. Normally I am not one of those. There just isn’t enough room to cover downside risk. But then in mid October I saw what I believed was a setup (just prior to earnings report) that looked very promising (I posted my trade). The set up proved more than promising. Being new to Options I would avoid near term trades (less than 3 month duration) like the plague. But let’s look at two ways you could play your scenario. #1 would be to Open a long position in the 26 JAN $285 Long Call at $4.53. Breakeven is $289.53 (sans fees). Lowering your Strike to $280 doesn’t help much as the contract premium increases to $6.65. Breakeven lowers to $286.65. In my opinion JAN contracts are priced to perfection with little to no Long Call upside. ROI is barely measurable. #2. On the other hand, a Vertical Call Spread lowers your entry point substantially, reducing your risk while simultaneously increasing your ROI (Return On Investment). A JAN $270/$275 Call Spread (commonly referred to as a $5.00 Spread) at $3.30 lowers your breakeven to $278.30, while increasing your ROI from very, very low single digits to ~50%. How does the Call Spread work? With the Call Spread you are completing two trades simultaneously. The first is Opening a long position (buy) of the JAN $270 Call contract at $12.70, and Opening a Short (sell) position of the JAN $275 Call Contract at $9.40. The $9.40 received reduces your total acquisition cost to $3.30. It also limits how much profit you can make on this trade. Remember this is a $5 Spread. When the position is settled at expiry you will have acquired 100 shares of AAPL at $270 each, and simultaneously sold those shares for $275 each. Max revenue per contract is 100 X $5.00 no matter how high AAPL ultimately went at expiry. You paid (net) $3.30 for this position, which means you profited $1.70. Now I have mixed the per share price with the contract price. When you examine the JAN Options Chain, prices are expressed as per share, but when you place your Order the amount paid reflects that you are acquiring/selling a Contract, which controls 100 shares. The per share price is understood to be the same thing as the Contract price. You quote the share price, you pay the contract price. All the figures used in this example came directly off of Schwab’s AAPL Options Chain. I would not under any circumstances trade a DEC Expiry (December 19, 2025). That’s a lot for someone without prior Options knowledge to absorb. Don’t worry about it. Just post any follow-up questions that may arise from my tutorial. I’d be surprised if there were none.'
  • Roger Schutte on Citi hikes its Apple price target $15 to $315 - 'Nope. (Malik also noted the possibility that Apple could push the release of the base model iPhone 18 from fall 2026 to early 2027.) iPhone 17 chip uses TSMC’s N3P technology and their next gen N2 is in full production NOW. To suggest Apple might change iPhone release timing makes me question his thought processes.'
  • Greg Lippert on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'I’ve used Think or Swim for years when it was owned by TD Ameritrade'
  • Fred Stein on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'Yes, Gregg, I’d love to sign up for your options tutorial. Thanks for the offer.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Seeking Alpha: Apple gets an F - 'The problem, and it is a problem, is that they do take into account future revenues, or if they do, they don’t give Apple’s installed base enough credit. Many on WS have the same intellectual limitation.'
  • Bill Donahue on Seeking Alpha: Apple gets an F - 'Especially when they highlight that Apple’s cap-ex has grown almost 3x more this year than its “peers”. Given how pundits and the market have crucified Apple during the last year on its refusal to spend even a fraction of the cap-ex its AI “peers” are spending, and at times the stock price has been hammered because of it, it would seem Seeking Alpha is talking about a different set of “peers” than most people have been talking about over the last year+.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Apple was red, turned green - 'It’s about 30 minutes to the closing bell and Apple is off about a nickel at $277.84. Apple supplier Corning is up 2.55% at $90.52. Healthcare giant CVS is ahead today 3.06% at $78.87. On the S&P 500 Apollo Global Management sits atop the leaderboard, rising 5.82% to $145.38. Among the index components about half are in the green on the day.'
  • Daniel Epstein on Citi hikes its Apple price target $15 to $315 - 'We are in the weird time of the year when Apple stock often struggles before an end of year rally. Given the number of Analysts recently who have raised their price targets to well over $300 dollars a share the price action in the stock is giving them the Rodney Dangerfield treatment. Good projections from an Analyst take a while to be believed. Now if someone has bad projections to talk about the reaction or overreaction is usually felt no matter how significant or believable the news actually is. And the overall market moves around the Fed decision on interest rates can easily drown out the lowly analyst calls. At least for the short term.'
  • Neal Guttenberg on Seeking Alpha: Apple gets an F - 'It seems to be essentially the same kind of stuff being said about Apple in the article that PED has links for in the related area after the present article from May 12, 2024. Only Apple is about 90 bucks per share higher than it was back then. Lots of people can have different ways to evaluate stocks and make money in the market. If that works for them, that’s great. Staying invested in Apple has worked for me. I don’t mind seeing the negative stuff. It just causes me to look at my investment again and justify it. I do think Apple is very richly valued here. But they can grow into this present valuation and it usually doesn’t grow in a linear manner like some of the other stocks. Also, part of what goes into that equation for me is the stock buybacks that decrease the share counts. So I stay invested but sell shares to keep up a cash position in retirement, usually at the start of the year so I can get an idea about what taxes I will need to pay for the rest of the year.'
  • Timothy Smith on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'Let’s say I believe Apple will hit 290 by the end of the year. It is 277 now.. I have 2500 cash in my retirement to play with, without worrying about taxes. What would be the play? Then, assume I think it will go down to 260. What would be the play?'
  • Daniel Epstein on Seeking Alpha: Apple gets an F - 'Seeking Alpha site is something I tried to monitor many years ago as it seemed to have some interesting viewpoints on some of the stocks I was following. Gradually I realized that many who used the Seeking Alpha site as distribution where misguided in their financial advice. Now I pretty much ignore it no matter how intriguing the headline. For instance there was a time when I was looking at Amazon when the stock price was around $125 per share. The argument against Amazon at that price seemed reasonable. Of course the stock price climbed for many years and when it split 20 to 1 in June 2022 it was back in the range of when this Seeking Alpha presenter had said it was dead money or worse. So one can say for sure that Seeking Alpha is a forum which has a wide variety of advice from people some of who are giving out bad investing advice. And it is difficult for the reader to know who to listen to. If Seeking Alpha has an article which says “Apple is doomed” rest assured it is there to get clicks.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'I don’t know enough about options to ask any questions, but I would be interested in reading a primer to learn the basics. Any suggestions would be appreciated.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'Let me rephrase your question: Can I trade options on Schwab? Yes you can. That’s where I do my trading.'
  • Bill Donahue on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'I would definnitely be interested in an options tutorial, Gregg!'
  • Timothy Smith on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'Basic question. Can I do options on Schwab?'
  • Bill Fouche on Seeking Alpha: Apple gets an F - '“… compared to its peers …” What peers? Give me names and let’s compare.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'Don, Apple 3.0 is supposed to be about learning so that your investing improves. As my posts have sometimes complained, I think it has morphed into a tracker of Apple rumors. I would be very happy to respond to any Options questions with the understanding that there are no stupid questions. I’ll be happy to explain, in greater detail what, and how, I traded AAPL Options since returning to the market in mid October. I believe an intelligent investor uses more than one strategy to prosper, as there is always more than one scenario facing serious investors. May I suggest we start with terminology? Ask away.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'Normal people ask questions when they don’t understand, or buy a book.'
  • Don Donofrio on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'Since many PED3.0 users have also bought an AVP, I have sometimes thought it would be fun to get together on a call and have someone explain options / max pain etc.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Schwab graphs Apple's technicals, pitches a vertical call option spread (video) - 'Nothing like options for spraying around the jargon and making normal people flee the room..!! Normal people questions when they don’t understand, or buy a book. What part did you not understand? I’ll be very happy to operate an Options tutorial for anyone interested in learning. Once you know the language they are really quite easy. The hardest part is placing an order. The brokerages Options platforms make it far more difficult than it needs to be. The best, and the one I learned on – OptionsXpress, was purchased by Schwab, who promptly ruined it. Even it, Think or Swim, can be learned though.'