Recent Comments

  • Bart Yee on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q2 2026 - 'Congrats on a well done win. Regarding Mac revenues, sales of lower priced Neo’s would have raised sales numbers but diluted revenues and ASP’s. Given that 14 of the 20 participants estimated between $8.60-$10+, expectations were high for increased Mac Revenues above the 6% result. As David suggests, memory costs, availability and production may have actually constrained sales numbers and subsequent revenues. No matter, considering solid backlogs of orders for Mac Neo and mid to high end Mac’s, this is just pushing demand and delivery into Q3, assuming Apple can improve delivery. Neo’s will make great graduation and Back to school gifts and educational institutions will be deciding on whether Mac Neo makes inroads on new school year budgets. Meanwhile, small business and enterprise now have options for running their own Mac-based AI locally instead of paying monthly subscription fees to AI infrastructure and providers. Considering the costs and data privacy issues involved, Mac may see substantial uptake over the next year.'
  • Joseph Bland on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q2 2026 - 'The interesting thing for me is that this is normally a production slack period for Apple, but it seems clear production is still humming. Seems a perfect opportunity for Apple to be gearing up for more production. But my past experience of Apple is that they don’t really like to gamble, production-wise. They have appeared to leave cash on the table rather than gamble on the possibility of over-supply. I’d love it if, for once, they took a chance and let production rip. I just don’t have much hope that they actually will.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Now that I think about it, unless I’m wrong, you can’t buy physical unified memory silicon. That would mean that TurboQuant would have to be modified to benefit Apple’s hardware. I don’t if, or how that could be done. The important thing is that Apple has alternatives to just paying more.'
  • Joseph Bland on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q2 2026 - 'Hi, Troy. I think this was ramping up last quarter. And it may still be ramping up. BTW, my loaded MacBook Pro is shipping today and is scheduled to arrive on the early side, so about 2 weeks from order to delivery. So Apple appears to be able to handle Mac demand, at least for now. Which I see as a positive. It may also account for the high future estimates for the June quarter given today.'
  • Rick Povich on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q2 2026 - 'I guess as an indicator that’s not a bad thing'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'I see the big after-hours bump has now moderated to a medium bump. I also see that total volume has increased to almost 84 M trades. Will tomorrow see another high volume day? And will that volume steamroll today’s $267.50 Max Pain number? Tune in tomorrow and find out!'
  • graham prudhomme on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q2 2026 - 'Congrats, Gregg 🙂'
  • Greg Lippert on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'When Apple pops post call, that’s a boost that has legs IMHO. BTO Tommo’s take made me vomit in my mouth. He’s jumped the shark.'
  • Fred Stein on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Thanks Gregg, Going out on a limb, if Google and Apple, in combo or separately, radically reduce the cost (CAPEX and OPEX) of AI, parts or all of AI, we might see disruptive changes in valuations. Right now, the price Nvidia pays TSMC for a chip is 1/10th the fully burdened CAPEX of a hyper scalar’s data center.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Thanks for the quote, Raj! It’s pretty clear to me what he meant, but just why it would elicit a big reversal isn’t as clear. I think Apple just finally admitted it was futile to make net cash neutral happen. Ergo, they expect to see net cash neutral drift away going forward. My guess on the possible reason for it adding to the bump: The possibility that, at the same time Apple is revisiting debt versus cash, they may be examining the worth of buybacks versus dividends as a means for keeping long term investors happy. Now, folks like Donna and me that don’t own enough AAPL to make dividends worth much prefer buybacks. But folks that own millions of dollars worth will likely prefer dividends (even though buybacks are invisibly more beneficial to Apple, since you can take your dividend and go buy something else other than AAPL with it). Of course, dividends outside of a retirement fund are taxed much, much more than buybacks, but that cold, hard feeling of cash in hand still attracts a certain number of investors. My guess is that Apple has been under pressure to change the balance of buybacks and dividends. That possibility is somewhat reinforced by the simultaneously-announced 4% increase in dividends. So is this bump essentially a “cheer from the sidelines” for an increased dividend? I guess that’s a possibility.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'I’ve theorized that if Apple could license from Samsung or Kioxia (or develop its own) hi-speed LPDDR5X RAM or the next generation of DDR6 RAM and either fabricate it on better than the 10nm process currently used, Apple could theoretically build the RAM on the SoC rather than using separate chips and using TSMC’s advanced stacked chip packaging. This would make the CPU SOC much larger though, maybe increase costs per wager or chips and/or decrease yields, but would it be offset by performance gains by direct silicon connections, 3-4x smaller, more efficient & faster processes? Then Apple would own their own memory supply, cutting out the vagaries of multi source memory suppliers who are prioritizing HBM AI memory over regular and high performance RAM and NAND chips. Of course, it may only take a year or two for the AI data center craze to slow significantly and the memory price bubble to pop along with it.'
  • David Emery on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q2 2026 - '‘supply constrained’ on the high end of Macs?'
  • David Emery on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Mebbe it’s old age. Mebbe it’s experience. But it seemed to me there was a lot more ‘platitudes’ today than I remember. Anyone else thought about that (one way or the other)?'
  • Troy Thoman on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q2 2026 - 'I thought the sold-out Mac Minis and Mac studios that people were buying for building local AI agents would have bumped Mac sales a bit more. I’m pleasantly surprised by services growth. High margin and often recurring. This is the next engine for AAPL buy backs.'
  • David Emery on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'If Apple continues to do SoC, the RAM is part of the silicon, so they don’t need separate RAM chips from RAM suppliers. The core supplier relationship is with TSMC for the SoC production. Of course, some Apple products aren’t yet full SoC (e.g. Neo and Mini/Studio I think), but I bet Apple moves that way. (And I’d expect Apple modem tech to move into SoC for the Mac line, has anyone considered that putting A-series in the Neo makes the Neo “ready for cellular”? 😉 )'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Daniel, I’m not sure Apple will require more physical RAM in future products. Google has developed a memory compression algorithm that increases physical RAM capacity by about 6X. Initially, as I understand it, TurboQuant is most effective in “AI” environments. If TurboQuant can be used, as is, for less demanding searches, then Apple’s for memory will only go up by its licensing costs from Google. Remember Google has had a long and mutually beneficial relationship with Apple, and now Apple is partnering with Google for Gemini. I expect at some point Gemini with ship with TurboQuant. This would be most beneficial for sales of Mac Minis and Mac Studios. If TurboQuant can’t be modified to improve memory efficiency for mobile products, its desktop efficiencies might be able to subsidize mobile memory costs, the result being no appreciable memory cost increases for Apple. There’s a lot of if’s and maybe’s in there, but tons of potential.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'If my call recall is correct, they did guide to a lower GM of 47-48%, so they expect a drop of about -1.2 to -2.2% from 49.27%, all pegged primarily to highly increased memory costs, transport costs, and easing of Fx tailwinds. These same costs & expenses will affect ALL hardware competitors in products (smartphones, tablets, notebooks, PC’s) to a large extent, and more adversely affect those fighting it out in midrange and budget tiers where margins are much thinner.'
  • Raj Pandey on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'The guidance for June quarter was good but not ‘that’ good. Sure, it got the stock back to climbing again but I suspect — because I was monitoring the stock movement very closely — that the sudden surge also had something to do with Kevan saying they will “no longer be providing net cash neutral as a formal target, and will independently evaluate cash and debt.” That comment seemed to have released Joe’s beach ball. From 268.88 to 284.89 in a matter of minutes! What Kevan said sounds slick but vague. You can’t nail the real meaning behind it. One guess could be that they’re looking into bigger [than usual] acquisitions.'
  • Bart Yee on Counterpoint: Apple rules the skies — for now - 'I don’t know what 3GPP was so here is the skinny: The 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) is a global collaboration between seven telecommunications standards development organizations formed in 1998. It develops technical specifications for mobile networks, including 3G (UMTS), 4G (LTE), 5G, and upcoming 6G, ensuring global interoperability and roaming for mobile devices.“ The NTN part of this is the Non-Terrestrial Networks which were fledgelings in the late 90’s but obviously have been built out over the past 28 years. With Apple already deploying this to every iPhone since the iPhone 14, as mentioned above, it has a huge install base capable of using this satellite service built in and at no extra cost for the majority of iPhones in a continually growing number of countries and regions. While for now SOS emergency services and now texting, it will only be a matter of time before voice calling and more complex messaging occurs, likely over Apple designed and produced modem chips and RF systems. Because of Apple’s overwhelming dominance of the premium end of the market, satellite services continue to add even more value to iPhone & Apple Watch Ultra 3 ownership, and perhaps will extend to iPad and MacBooks who may get modems as well. Maybe even extended to the new iFold and inflight internet connectivity? Wouldn’t that be a great feature to have, via aircraft modems or satellite signal routers, iPhone first seamless internet in the air?'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - '“Cash neutral is the white” flag…. Sorry about that.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - '“When is the next stock split coming?” Generally AAPL splits when it trades above $400. The ratio varies. I’m expecting a split at $450 with a 3:1 ratio. So, not until March quarter 2028.'
  • Daniel Epstein on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'I think they are keeping their options open to change strategies on all those things. I could see Apple trying to develop its own Ram production partner if they can’t negotiate prices they like from others. Probably easier to design than a modem. But could be a big ticket investment which they might want to debt finance. No insider information but keeping control of costs is what they do and for now it seems like there is going to be higher prices for Ram going forward. Apple wants to get the leverage on that back.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple Earnings Smackdown: Final estimates Q2 2026 - 'These were my initial numbers before I overthought it and went up. iPhones $58.093B +24.0% Mac $9.117B +14.7% iPad 6.927B +8.2% Wearables 7.749B +3.0% Services 30.429B +14.2% Total $112.315B +17.8% Total Products $81.886B Gross Margin 48.45% Net Revenue = 54,416.6B OpEx = -$18.56B = 35,856.6 – OINE (100) = 35756.6 (-tax rate at 17.5%) = 29499B net income EPS At 14.58B shares = $2.023 These numbers were better than what I submitted. Oh well, glad Apple did as well as they did, I’ll console myself with an after hours gain of $10-11, hopefully momentum into Friday’s trading.'
  • David Drinkwater on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Great show today. I joined the call a little late at +17min. Questions I would love to be able to ask: “When will you shift the balance of investor return toward dividends rather than buy-backs?” (Toward does not imply entirety, just 10/90 vs 20/80 or 40/60.) Maybe also: “When is the next stock split coming?” Overall, though, can’t complain. I look forward to Friday’s performance and the performance over the next few weeks (beyond Max Pain).'
  • Fred Stein on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'I think I heard one analyst question whether the change in cash neutral policy implies more spend on R&D, more CAPEX and possible acquisitions. Any thoughts on this topic?'
  • Rodney Avilla on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Just as I suspected, the stock zig zagged until Apple gave their guidance, then WS responded. Great time to be an Apple long. Tim Cook, you’re welcome. And thank YOU.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Cash neutral is the white being raised. I saw this coming years ago, recognizing it as a Sisyphean task, as free cash flow inundated Apple’s ability to swallow it. Why the low buybacks last quarter? Maybe the argument began shifting in favor of increasing dividends, which would explain the nice bump. I’ve always considered buybacks as a tool to primarily reverse the massive stock dilution required to keep Apple solvent.'
  • Greg Bates on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'What caused the shift to end the position of targeting cash neutral, I wonder.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple Earnings Smackdown: Final estimates Q2 2026 - 'My first set of numbers were similar to yours, and closer to actual results but optimism got the best of me and I adjusted them upwards. Not the first time I got over-enthusiastic in a non-Q1 situation. Need to have a realistic look at the financial numbers instead of hopium for more.'
  • David Drinkwater on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Services revenue is only going up, and it does not have the same annual cyclicality as iPhone (AKA “Christmas”). It’s a very nice add-on to very good products.'