Recent Comments

  • Greg Lippert on Apple Siri AI public beta has landed. Give it a try - 'Gonna try it on my iPad Pro. Although used all the time, it is not as mission critical as my iPhone or Mac.'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is red - 'What the heck happened to IBM? Down about 25% on missed earnings. Oracle is creating new lows. 63% off their 52 week high.'
  • Gregg Thurman on KeyBanc downgrades Apple, sticks with $250 target - '”This rigid reliance on historical mean reversion caused them to miss chunks of Apple’s valuation re-rating.” Spreadsheets are great, mostly though, all they can do is eliminate manual work. What they illustrate is the weakness in human data entry. They can illustrate changes to norms, but can’t tell you why they occurred. Using a spreadsheet to determine future activity based on past activity, without acknowledging changes to a business model or investor sentiment is akin to relying on an idiot savant for insight.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Goldman Sachs, the current provider of the Apple Card, is up $77.09 or 7.37% at $1,123 in early afternoon trading. The shares reached a new all-time high of $1,136.32 soon after the opening bell on strong revenue and eps growth above Street expectations. Several major financial firms are reporting results today.'
  • Rick Povich on KeyBanc downgrades Apple, sticks with $250 target - 'But despite KeyBanc’s persistent valuation disconnect and despite AAPL performing consistently contrary to KeyBanc’s ratings, the firm continues to maintain the persistent valuation disconnect. It seems to me the firm is doing a great disservice to its clients who, if they’re gullible enough to believe Keybank, have lost out on a lot of profit. KeyBank is consistent with the other bottom-feeders, though. Nothing to see here, move along.'
  • David Wilson on KeyBanc downgrades Apple, sticks with $250 target - 'He’s waiting for his black swan to come in.'
  • Romeo Esparrago on KeyBanc downgrades Apple, sticks with $250 target - ' Downgrades to Underweight from Sector Weight Brandon needs to stop taking his GLP/GLT as he’s lost too much AAPL weight thinking. I see AAPL eating more carbs which is why we’re seeing it gain pounds.'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Apple Siri AI public beta has landed. Give it a try - 'I only have it on my iPad Pro and Vision Pro right now. On my iPad, I asked Siri.Ai how to say “good morning” in Slavic, and it verbally explained and gave examples in the three Slavic languages it knows : Russian, Ukrainian, and Polish. I also tested by asking for showing me my latest hummingbird recordings and she brought back the five vids me & my wife captured this morning on our iPhone Pro’s. For the voice response settings, I found Pace 1 too slow, so it’s back to Pace 3, but I use Expressivity 5. Only an American female & male voice so far, I can’t wait for the British 1 Female Voice to arrive. My UAT so far: thumbs up pass!'
  • Joseph Bland on KeyBanc downgrades Apple, sticks with $250 target - 'Great info, Kenny! Upvoted, along with David! Once again, Apple 3.0 members dispel the Apple FUDD!'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Same old thing this AM. Short term traders vs long term investors. FUDD stories still trying to pull back that Apple slingshot vs hard info that only comes out once a quarter. “Apple Haters” vs Apple Evangelists” Blah, blah, blah. Apple as “Old Man River”:. It must know somethin’ but don’t say nothin’. It just keeps rollin’ along….'
  • Roger Schutte on Apple Siri AI public beta has landed. Give it a try - 'Your iPhone, iPad and Mac will take days to build a local index (database) of your personal data (mail, messages, files, photos, etc.) Siri AI may not be available to you until Apple clears you off a waitlist. (I loaded the developer betas on day 1 of WWDC and had to wait 3 days to get off the waitlist and indexing took 5-6 days for my iPhone and Mac.) Once off the waitlist, you are able to use Siri AI even if the indexing isn’t done yet as it will use what is has.'
  • Kenny Kruger on KeyBanc downgrades Apple, sticks with $250 target - 'Historically, KeyBanc’s biggest valuation disconnect has been treating Apple primarily as a cyclical hardware company rather than a high-margin services ecosystem. The 2023 Downgrade (Premature Caution): In October 2023, KeyBanc downgraded Apple from Overweight to Sector Weight (Neutral), arguing that a combination of near all-time low U.S. carrier upgrade rates and stretched valuations would stunt growth. Instead, Apple continued to expand its multiple, driven by the broader megacap tech rally, buybacks, and emerging AI optimization sentiment.Historical Multiples Disconnect: Over the last decade, Apple’s price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple expanded from roughly 15x–18x up to the current ~35x forward earnings. KeyBanc has consistently flagged Apple as “expensive” or “unwarranted” whenever it sits two standard deviations above its 10-year historical average of 23x P/E. This rigid reliance on historical mean reversion caused them to miss chunks of Apple’s valuation re-rating.'
  • David Emery on KeyBanc downgrades Apple, sticks with $250 target - 'ANALysts gonna Anal… Nispel is one of those where his employer should be tracking and rating his poor performance.'
  • Bart Yee on Omdia: Apple and Samsung are soaring amid a smartphone downdraft - 'Sub brands marketed and aimed at different demographics of the Chinese market. Considering each has different marketing and sales messages, it’s the old we’ll make it up on volume story.'
  • Bart Yee on Omdia: Apple and Samsung are soaring amid a smartphone downdraft - 'Trying to put some concrete numbers or SWAG guesses to these percentages until Omdia releases actual numbers: In Q2 2025, Omdia reported 288.9M global sales, “constrained by stagnant consumer demand and tariff shifts.” Apple reportedly sold 44.8M iPhones, 15.5% share. If Q2 2026 total sales fell 4% (+/-0.4%), that gives us 277.3M, -11.6M units. If Apple now has 20% share (+/- 0.4%), that’s 55.47M units (!), and increase of 10.67M or 24%! Now Counterpoint just reported that global smartphone sales dropped 11%, much higher than Omdia reported, and Apple’s iPhone sales went up only 3% (market share? from 17% to 20%?), so it’s hard to understand without concrete numbers. https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/global-smartphone-shipments-q2-2026 So let’s take the most pessimistic view using Omdia’s numbers and say that total Q2 shipments fell 4.49% max down to 275.9M, and Apple had only 19.51% of that, giving 53.83M instead of 55.47M. That increase is still a 20% volume sales increase vs 24%. If we use Counterpoint’s -11%, and cross that w/Omdia’s 288.9M, we get 257.1M, and if Apple’s sales are 20%, that gives Apple 51.42M, still 14.8% sales volume rise YoY. (IDC had the numbers last year at 295.2M with Apple at 46.4M, 15.7%, a slightly bigger piece of a bigger pie.) So hopefully we get more specific numbers from research orgs between now and earnings to guide just how many iPhones were actually sold globally. Either way, if my interpretation is correct, we have at least a 14% to 24% rise in iPhone sales. Assuming not much change in global ASP, similar corresponding increase in iPhone revenue, which could be quite exciting.'
  • Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Apple touches $323.45, a new intraday record high - 'Thanks for the correction. $317.31 is an ATH close. Yahoo has last Thursday’s high as $316.22'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Close to 4am in the east and 1am in the west on this Tuesday morning, we have Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, BofA and Goldman all reporting today. It will be a busy day for traders in the financial sector!'
  • Jonny T on Postcards from Joe Bland's Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner - 'That picture at the top is reminiscent of a take on, gulp, Da Vinci’s Last Supper! What a memorable evening you all had, well done well done. A weekend next time with some golf and tennis, and partners?! And look what you did to the stock price a day later!'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Apple touches $323.45, a new intraday record high - '@PED I don’t believe $317.40 was the previous all-time closing high. That was the previous all-time high set on June 8th. That all-time high was replaced today with Apple reaching a new all-time high of $323.45 in early trading before settling back to a new all-time closing high of $317.31. The previous all-time closing high of $316.22 was set last Thursday.'
  • David Drinkwater on Mark Gurman: Maybe the Apple Car wasn't a dead end - 'It’s good of German to attempt to catch up. Or perhaps more importantly to seem to have caught up. Kinda like: “Without that effort, Gurman would probably seem to be even further behind on Apple’s AI strategy than he does today.”'
  • Bill Donahue on Mark Gurman: Maybe the Apple Car wasn't a dead end - 'LOL. It only appeared to wipe out a decade of work to some people. At times like this, Gurman makes it crystal clear that he doesn’t understand research. Or product development.'
  • Bill Donahue on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Well, in all honestly that would have been a fantastic investment. Just as it was for B-H (and continues to be).'
  • Robert Stack on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Uh – perhaps they should just invest in Berkshire and leave the “thinking” to them?! 🙂'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple touches $323.45, a new intraday record high - 'To me, the difference between this Monday’s peak AAPL price and its closing price speaks louder than words about the number of folks thinking they need to lock in this profit. These are the ones I think of as “weak AAPL hands”. I know that seems harsh, but it quite literally suggests those investors are not investing for the long term, and it’s the long term investors that I think of as the “strong AAPL hands”. Also, it was a pretty red market today, and Apple was one of only a few stocks bucking the negative trend. Otherwise, we’d have almost certainly seen a new ATH.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple touches $323.45, a new intraday record high - 'Huzzah!!! BTW, PED, I TRULY appreciate the extents that you go through to keep the info of your paying members private – up to the point of NOT submitting “Postcards from Joe Bland’s Apple 3.0 Palo Alto dinner” to Apple News, including the faces of the attendees in the cover picture, let alone their names! AI has just become too insatiable and even outright voracious for information about folks these days to risk giving it any more direct information about us than absolutely necessary. And I trust that idea of mutual respect for the membership’s privacy is an implicit understanding between all of us.'
  • Greg Lippert on Apple touches $323.45, a new intraday record high - 'Tommo??? We need snark n shade'
  • Ron Fredrick on Premarket: Apple is green - 'IMO, if anyone only *bought* AAPL, when and because Warren Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway bought AAPL…and then *sold* some AAPL, when and because Warren Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway sold some AAPL…they should have someone else investing their money for them.'
  • Ron Fredrick on Premarket: Apple is green - 'However many AAPL shares were sold by Warren Buffett, let’s not forget that, as of 03/31/26, AAPL was Berkshire Hathaway’s largest holding: 1 APPLE INC AAPL 21.99% 227,917,808 – $57,843,260,493.00 2 AMERICAN EXPRESS CO AXP 17.43% 151,610,700 – $45,859,204,536.00 3 COCA COLA CO KO 11.56% 400,000,000 – $30,420,000,000.00'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Close was certainly close enough and tells me AAPL will continue to grind higher as research info like Higher iPhone sales and higher Mac sales, plus higher Services point strongly towards a very strong quarter if not a blowout. Of course, all eyes and ears will be on Guidance for Q4 FY2026 and beyond, but my sense is Apple will guide to a break even margin QoQ and still have double digit revenue growth consistent with the first 9 months. Why? Because Apple management has prepared for this for the last year, and has already addressed memory costs, and continues to mitigate these issues. Hedges will also address currency headwinds for the last quarter and current quarter. IMO, the install base continues to grow, and the current install base has become its own self-sustaining moat of recurring revenue streams all around.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - 'It’ll take more evidence of such, but today certainly appears that the market has bought into Apple’s AI story.'