Recent Comments

  • Gary Morton on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Chip costs and FX will be a drag on GM. FX especially for Services.'
  • David Emery on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'GM is what I’ll watch for. How much impact will chip costs have, given the price raises Apple has put in place?'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is red - '”At 4:30am PDT, Premarket AAPL is -4.70, down 1.35%. An hour and a half later AAPL has recovered ~$1.25'
  • Gregg Thurman on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Can’t argue much with that analysis'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I’ll be watching AAPL today, for signs that this selloff is different from previous selloffs, that being that a selloff recovery (for AAPL) takes longer than a week.'
  • Jonny T on Counterpoint: As China's smartphone sales fell 10%, Apple's share grew to 19.5% - 'Isn’t that the majority of folks on here?'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is red - 'A lot of negative news out there in general, geopolitical as well as energy, and now threats of reigniting the middle east yet again, all swirling around and Apple, having reached a fresh ATCH, will be buffeted and pulled down with it. With earnings after the Monday trading session, it will likely tread water or get an early decline as traders may want to book their profits early. At 4:30am PDT, Premarket AAPL is -4.70, down 1.35%. Most of the market is red.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - '”for the same reasons that Apple doesn’t pursue making its own memory” How much do we ever know about what’s going on behind Apple’s closed doors. Did we know about any of these before they were announced: Vision Pro, Mac Neo, MacBook Pro with Touch Display, Mac Studio, Apple Intelligence, iPhone, Apple Watch, iPad, Air Pods, the original iMac or iPod, Apple Silicon, Apple ASIC designed with Broadcom, or why, the list is almost endless. I don’t think we can ever say, with any conviction, that Apple is, or is not, doing this or that.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple touches 351.43, closes at $348.91, a record high - 'Since May the Nasdaq 100 has trended above 29,000, returning to that level often (as it’s about to do again tomorrow). In the meantime AAPL has risen from $280 to $350 and what goes up, must come down, spinning wheels got to go round. I just had the strangest dream. I can remember it, but can’t explain it. It was psychedelic but I’ve never tripped out. I woke up to an unfinished post and can’t think what it was that would have completed it. I need a glass of warm milk. Because of AAPL’s habit of going up on rumors, and selling on the news, I’m tempted to close out my current position tomorrow, and buy back in next week after Earnings. Ah, there it is, my unfinished thought.'
  • Steven Philips on Premarket: Apple is green - 'We know who the real heavyweight is. On the “Mag7” seesaw when six go down, one goes up! 🙂'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Nice idea but not feasible for the same reasons that Apple doesn’t pursue making its own memory: From Gemini: “Converting an existing Intel logic fab to produce DRAM memory chips would be a massive, time-consuming undertaking that could take nearly as long as building a brand-new fab—likely two to three years or more. While Intel does have its own memory intellectual property, it would almost certainly need to license a chip design or form a joint venture to manufacture standard high-volume DRAM or HBM. The timeline and licensing requirements break down as follows: ⏳ Conversion Speed & Timeline Converting a logic fab (designed for CPUs and GPUs) to a DRAM fab is incredibly complex due to radically different manufacturing steps. • The “Cleanroom Overhaul” Barrier: Logic chips favor high-speed logic transistors with complex, multi-layered metal routing. DRAM requires massive arrays of high-aspect-ratio capacitors stacked vertically or deeply etched into the silicon to hold electrical charges. • Equipment Swap: Intel would have to rip out or heavily modify its current toolsets. On tech forums like Reddit, users have highlighted that the efficiency loss and sheer capital required mean converting a logic fab takes almost as long as constructing a new one from scratch. • The Ohio/SK hynix Scenario: Recent developments show that rather than converting an active facility, Intel has been in talks with South Korea’s SK hynix to either lease out space or form a joint venture at Intel’s upcoming Ohio facility to kickstart U.S.-based DRAM and HBM lines. This leverages a “blank canvas” rather than a disruptive conversion. Licensing Requirements Intel would face steep patent and design hurdles if it attempted to go it alone: • The IP Deficit: Intel famously exited the DRAM market in the 1980s to focus on microprocessors. Major memory players like SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron hold a tight web of foundational patents, especially around High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). • The Need to License: To produce industry-standard DRAM quickly, Intel would need to license memory IP technology. This is a core reason behind their ongoing discussions with SK hynix. • Intel’s Proprietary Workaround: Intel has filed patents for its own alternative technology, called XBM (Cross-Batch Memory). XBM is designed to bypass traditional DRAM fabrication by using an open-source interconnect standard (UCIe) to stack memory directly on current logic nodes. However, to build traditional planar DRAM or standard HBM, licensing remains a necessity.” “Converting a modern U.S. logic fab to a DRAM memory fab is financially impractical. It would cost an estimated $4 billion to $6 billion, which represents roughly 40% to 50% of the cost of building a brand-new facility from scratch. Because semiconductor equipment is highly specialized, a conversion is not a simple reconfiguration. It requires a massive write-down of existing logic assets and a complete capital expenditure (CapEx) overhaul. Cost Breakdown of a Fab Overhaul The total cost is driven by the structural mismatch between logic and memory manufacturing: • Tool Replacement ($3.0B – $4.0B): • Logic fabs prioritize complex multi-layer metal routing (requiring specific lithography and etching tools). • DRAM requires specialized, high-aspect-ratio deposition and etch equipment to build deep vertical capacitors. • Intel would have to scrap or relocate billions of dollars in logic tools and purchase entirely new memory-specific fleets. • Cleanroom & Facility Reconfiguration ($500M – $1.0B): • Altering the sub-fab utility piping, ultra-pure water systems, and chemical delivery lines to match the new tool layout. • Licensing & Technology Transfer ($500M+): • Upfront IP licensing fees or joint-venture buy-ins (e.g., with a partner like SK hynix) to secure the blueprints and proprietary manufacturing processes (recipes) for modern DRAM/HBM nodes. The “Hidden Cost”: Billions in Lost Revenue The biggest financial deterrent isn’t the equipment—it’s the opportunity cost. • Zero Revenue for 24+ Months: Intel would have to take a multi-billion-dollar logic fab completely offline. • Asset Write-Offs: Intel would be forced to take massive, immediate depreciation and impairment charges on the logic equipment being ripped out, severely damaging its quarterly earnings and balance sheet. • The Co-Location Solution: This extreme financial penalty is exactly why Intel’s rumored strategy is to provide cleanroom space to memory makers at new sites (like Ohio) rather than converting old ones. Co-location allows Intel to generate foundry revenue immediately without destroying its existing logic capacity.” Just not practical, plus memory prices would likely have fallen by 2030-2031 when the new fab comes online, and DRAM pricing wouldn’t make enough back to justify it.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Raj, exactly right. After Google’s miss AND confirming continued spending, all the AI dependent folks are now in a Catch-22 Kobayashi Maru No Win Scenario: Spend more and have higher and sooner expectations of showing some kind of ROI but defending revenue slowdowns Or Slow spending, restore positive cash flow, be fiscally responsible and become that “prick” that begins to deflate the AI bubble built on Circular Financing cards or now California coastal sand waiting for approaching waves. The results today and after hours aren’t pretty: Stock Sym – Day & % : AH & % AI stocks GOOGL -41 -12.6% : -$2.4 -0.9% AMZN -11 -4.3% : -$17.9 -7.3% MSFT -0.87 -0.2% : -$5.85 -1.1% META +12 +2.0% : -$7.2 -1.2% ORCL -5.0 -3.5% : -$5.1 -3.7% SPCX -1.3 -0.9% : -$4.7 -3.3% TSLA -0.9 -0.23% : -$7.3 -1.8% AI Chip, Memory, Hardware NVDA -1.72 -0.8% : -$5.2 -2.4% Samsung (Kospi) -5.82% SK Hynix (Kospi) -7.9% SKHY -2.61 -1.6% : -9.82 -6.0% MU -49.0 -5.0% : -31.9 -3.4% INTC -3.46 -1.6% : -21.2 -6.1% AVGO -6.81 -1.9% : -13.37 -3.9% ARKK -0.15 -0.92% : -3.34 -3.9% And AI spending averse AAPL +5.08 +1.5% : +1.10 0.3%'
  • David Drinkwater on Apple's John Ternus talks touchscreen Mac (with product video) - 'Auto incorrect: “*buying* me a new laptop”'
  • David Drinkwater on Apple's John Ternus talks touchscreen Mac (with product video) - 'I’ve actually been wondering if we wouldn’t (eventually) see a re-emergence of the disastrous “Duo” laptop from days gone by. It would feature a very nice iPad screen that functions competently on its own, but could be driven by a very well docked “base” with keyboard, trackpad, and a much, much more powerful intelligence engine that could drive the “iPad” screen to tremendously higher heights. By “dock”, I mean a series (and extended series) of bus connectors that tie the “iPad” screen into the CPU/Keyboard/trackpad “Base”. Dunno. Just me thinking out loud.'
  • David Drinkwater on Apple's John Ternus talks touchscreen Mac (with product video) - 'Read differently (at least IMNSHO): if you do not eat yourself, someone else will do it for you. That is why Apple is a winner: they eat their own rich.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Apple touches 351.43, closes at $348.91, a record high - 'In AH trading Apple has been up as much as $3.50. Wild stuff.'
  • John Konopka on Apple touches 351.43, closes at $348.91, a record high - '@David I don’t think so. The earnings report is on Monday so there is likely a pause on Apple till then. Also the election is Tuesday which will likely overshadow any other news. Also, the AI stocks have been hit making Apple more of a safe haven. Google was down over 12% today. Intel was down ~20% after hours following a poor earnings report. I believe I heard that Meta did not report very well (could be wrong). Looks like there is enough angst out there to keep Apple afloat for a while. Plus the daily barrage of good news about new products coming out can’t hurt. Just one man’s opinion.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's John Ternus talks touchscreen Mac (with product video) - '”The premium is nice but is the upgrade cycle shorter for iPads than for MacBook Pros?” I remember when the iPhone remained on the market for 15 months while Apple moved its launch date from July to September. Who’s to say Apple isn’t doing something similar next year?'
  • Charles A. on Apple's John Ternus talks touchscreen Mac (with product video) - 'Nah, probably is true…if you list it on eBay or similar.'
  • David Emery on Apple touches 351.43, closes at $348.91, a record high - 'So what’s the pattern? Tomorrow we’ll get some FUD, possibly Duo or Macbook Pro supply chain cuts, then some negative ‘color’ by Gurman, to take us into Monday’s earnings call. After that call, there’ll be a drop when all the “buy rumor/sell news” people cash out, and likely a slow decline with increasing holiday supply FUD. Then we’ll start to hear positive news based on actual holiiday sales, with a January run-up. There’ll be cashing out by the speculators who bought during this run-down, but the actual number of shares will continue to decline thanks to buy-backs and the buy-and-hold crowd. What am I missing?'
  • Steven Philips on Apple's John Ternus talks touchscreen Mac (with product video) - 'Looks like they brought back the glowing Apple logo! 🙂'
  • Steven Philips on Apple's John Ternus talks touchscreen Mac (with product video) - 'Maybe WAS worth – until the touch screen came out?'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Apple touches 351.43, closes at $348.91, a record high - 'With the release of the Duo and the other devices recently, the earnings call ought to be quite interesting on Monday. On another note, here is the latest from the world of “Shorts”: Short interest was (116.327) Million as of August 14, 2026. 2.52 Short interest was (139.749) Million as of August 31, 2026. 3.53 Short interest was (128.753) Million as of September 15, 2026. 2.85 Short interest was (120.763) Million as of September 30, 2026. 3.02 Short interest was (131.591) Million as of October 15, 2026. 3.70'
  • Darren DMW on Apple touches 351.43, closes at $348.91, a record high - 'In AH aapl touched at least $351.98 even though yahoo shows $361.67 as the AH high. How do I know? Because I woke to a pleasant inbox surprise of a confirmation of 351.98. Cheers to the longs indeed.'
  • Raj Pandey on Premarket: Apple is green - 'After GOOG yesterday, it’s AMZN today, the earnings of which seem to be spooking investors. You could see in AH activity, AMZN going down and simultaneously AAPL going up. Somebody’s waking up to the reality of mega Capex spending.'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Intel down ~20% after hours. Yikes. Intel reporting PC sales down on high memory costs. In the first few minutes Apple is up after hours.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'When Tim Cook stepped down, his last official day was August 31, 2026. AAPL closed at $316.85. John Ternus took over the next day and since then AAPL has closed below that level briefly twice on, unsurprisingly, “buy the rumor, sell the news” Sept. 8th and 9th after the new iPhones event. After that, it’s been a slow but steady march upwards, buffeted a little by AI tech concerns that enswirls Apple from time to time. But if AAPL holds the $350.00+ levels today, AAPL will have risen +10.5%, achieved a number of ATCH’s, with earnings and directional Q1 FY2027 guidance still to be revealed. Tim could have waited a quarter to bow out but wisely and thoughtfully gave John a beautiful springboard of Ternus’ own making to launch from. Ternus didn’t hit the ground running, he was already in second gear and accelerating. His first laps have proven fast, with a few bumps and short pit stops for adjustments, but now he will settle in for long, measured, consistent laps while the team behind him is working on the next vehicles he will pilot and lead. The AAPL team has already banked and secured plenty of fuel with reserves already in waiting. The competition has poured most of their resources into exotic and promising but unproven fuels and built huge reservoirs for more, but they are nervously waiting for a mysterious fuel tanker and pipeline to arrive from beyond the horizon, unsure as to how much fuel it carries or can deliver, and whether it will be enough to keep them in the race, let alone to the finish line.'
  • Robert Stack on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Here’s an Apple investment I’d like to see – while Intel is not a state-of-the-art foundry, neither is the manufacture of memory chips. I’d like to see Apple do a multi-year deal with Intel to supply a certain percentage of their memory chip needs at a below current market price. Fabbed in the USA, of course. Even a below market price would still be highly profitable for Intel, and would buy them time to reestablish their mojo. It might also just give Apple a bit more leverage in negotiating contracts with their current suppliers if they perceive that a “hungry” Intel is coming for their bacon…'
  • Steven Philips on Apple's John Ternus talks touchscreen Mac (with product video) - 'iPad form factor still rules for me. How about an iPad that runs MacOS? Especially this touchscreen version.'
  • Steven Philips on Apple's John Ternus talks touchscreen Mac (with product video) - 'If you eat yourself, who’s left to buy the next product? 🙂'