Gregg Thurman on What the midterm results mean for the AI buildout - 'Shorts perform a vital role in the market. Whether the market goes up or down, Shorts set support. As an equity goes down, at some point the Shorts buy shares back in order to return borrowed shares. They bought low and sold high, just not in the order most people understand. As an equity goes up the Shorts buy back the shares they borrowed and sold, supporting further gains in the shorted shares. One thing to consider with AAPL Shorts: most are expressed with options. Calls are sold with the expectation that the underlying shares are going to go down. Puts are bought with same expectation. In either case if the investor is wrong, unwinding the Short position bolsters the longs.'
on What the midterm results mean for the AI buildout - 'Well, it IS electric and those shorts can deliver quite a shock! 🙂'
on Apple price target changes - 'I haven’t run out of runway or patience but if Apple share price keeps increasing I may run out of options …..literally out of options. I mean can an honest trader get a pullback for a couple of months?'
on Apple bungee jumps to $349.51, a new record close - 'The market always loves certainty and the Midterms gave us certainty. I suspect the moderates will be going after tariffs, and the progressives going after investigations/subpoenas. Both will want re-engagement with out allies. They likely both support Ukraine and will work to find a peace with Iran. All those should make the markets happy. we shall see.'
on Apple bungee jumps to $349.51, a new record close - 'Interesting that AAPL has traded above $350 in pre-market, open market and after hours on numerous days recently, but just can’t close over $350. Is tomorrow the day?'
on Apple bungee jumps to $349.51, a new record close - 'I missed the absolute low Monday after hours but I was able to buy a pile that night at 227 to 227.6. I can trade till 8pm at Fidelity.'
on Apple bungee jumps to $349.51, a new record close - 'Man, did all those after-hours dumpers of AAPL following earnings just get spanked! And yes, I’m havin’ a laugh! Congrats to all those who had the gumption yesterday AM to beat everyone to the punch!'
on Apple bungee jumps to $349.51, a new record close - 'I am just elated that the results were so decisive that there was no blood on the streets. I was afraid that Trump was going to pull shenanigans. Go Democracy!'
on Apple bungee jumps to $349.51, a new record close - 'I made $$$ on the earning/election swing. Cause it was a lotta noise.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Hi, John. By the present time (4:44 PM PST), AAPL daily trade volume hit 89 M, per the Apple Stocks app…. BTW, while very high, we’ve seen over 100 M in the last few years. IMO, the only reason it isn’t 100 M is – buybacks. But you knew I’d say that, right? Also, at an EPS of 8.98, we’ll hit a 40 valuation again at about $360/share. Every quarter that goes by we see blue sky as the AAPL float dries up…'
on What the midterm results mean for the AI buildout - 'Regarding Tesla, I would not bet against Musk. To be clear, I would not bet on him; I do not (nor will I ever) own Tesla stock- too volatile and uncertainty). But it is a fun stock to watch, probably because it always changing. But I would not bet against him. Just ask Bill Gates, who has lost an estimated $1.5 billion to (probably closer to) $10 billion by shorting Tesla stock.'
on Apple price target changes - 'Tim Long at Barclays makes the same insane projections year in and year out. One day the truth will out, because there can be no rational explanation for it…'
on Apple bungee jumps to $349.51, a new record close - 'The market always likes a divided government. Oil drops. Apple had a record 4-Q. Now they’re reaping the rewards by having a first time ever Monday earnings report. BTW, John Ternus was just fine on the earnings call.'
on Apple bungee jumps to $349.51, a new record close - 'And consider the price targets posted here on the previous post… Will Apple have to give back money to meet some of them?'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Well, Ternus’s decision to do Earnings before the Election paid off, as any negative views of the guidance were swamped and then some by the election results and positive rising sentiment for Apple and AAPL shares, IMO. A nice, ho hum steady up day for AAPL shares, hitting a new all time intraday high ATIDH of $354.47 (up as high as +$23, +6.8%) and a slight pullback at the close to $349.51, to a gain of $17.61, +5.31%, and a new All Time Closing High ATCH, 2nd in last 5 trading sessions. Volume was a heavy 85M shares. Wonder what the shorts are contemplating now? I’m sure some will say “the stock has gotten way ahead of itself, so I’ll double down and short again from here.” Please do!! I read on a Yahoo Finance page comment that “no way AAPL should be this high, on any normal metric the stock is only worth about $60.” That’s why there are so many haters out there, AAPL stock and its investors can’t seem to understand why every Talking Head wants to rate this company as a simple hardware stock that MUST stick to its 5 year, no, 10 year, no, 15 year PE average (or whatever metric makes it look way overvalued), otherwise the Talking Heads’ heads just explode and can’t make sense of it. Yesterday, one of the CNBC hacks said AAPL was still to rich at $332 and a forward PE of 36, there’s no way it’s going higher with a measly 9-11% revenue growth rate, he said he’d rather own Google here because it’s already been beaten down, and has a PE of only 15, because it’s cheap and that cheap is because its earnings are so high, or its price is so low (at $288 today, it’s down 30% from its $407 May 2026 52 week high, that’s not just correction territory or a bear market, that’s a Crash! ). I guess he loves a bargain that just might go lower if the AI bubble bursts further, I mean it will eventually retake that high, right?'
on Apple price target changes - '“Or other peoples’ reports” I long determined that financial advisors do not have the time to closely follow (like we do on PED 3.0) all the stocks that are relevant to their clientele. It didn’t take me long to realize that I knew much more about Apple (management, products, R&D) than my advisor did. If they are lucky, they may follow 1 or 2 as I follow Apple. For the rest of the stocks they are advising on, they rely of other advisors or analysts who they trust (who also major on 1 or 2 stocks). So in reality, my advisor may ‘know’ 1 or 2, but rely on others for recommendations on all other stocks. I feel very fortunate that the 1 stock that I follow closely just happens to be Apple.'
on Apple price target changes - 'Hi, Richard, Apple doesn’t need more cash, which is why there are buybacks in the first place. Also, let’s remember that everyone, not just Apple, will benefit from any lowered price for RAM. Finally, unless the Republicans start seriously waving a white flag, which I pessimistically and possibly cynically do not expect, they will stonewall for the next two months, and join this Administration in doing as much damage as they can. We won a battle, IMO. The War goes on, and opponents (I can’t call them the “loyal opposition”) still have a LOT of firepower they can direct. My opinion: It’s too soon for live and let live.'
on What the midterm results mean for the AI buildout - 'The rest, assuming sanity now returns to the Republican Party and they do a major mea culpa plus a bunch of good deeds, will hopefully get what they deserve.'
on What the midterm results mean for the AI buildout - 'Afternoon, Steven. “We will see just what sorts of sweetheart deals were made wrt datacenters, SpaceX, etc.” I hope so, but this gang of pirates has two months to cover their tracks – unless the Republican Party fesses up to their sins and does a 180. Starting today. What are the odds of that happening?'
on What the midterm results mean for the AI buildout - 'Correction, Steven: You have to factor in the number of folks who didn’t vote, and of that cohort, the number of Republicans, Independents, Libertarians, etcetera the PURPOSEFULLY didn’t vote, thus voting to let the Democrats kick ass. A non-vote is still a vote, when it comes down to something as historic as what just happened. So a lot more than 50% “got what they asked for”, and changed the course of history.'
on Apple price target changes - 'BTW, the horrible bet I lost was betting on GTAT, and holding it into the ground. And why? In the years following the Great Recession and Before Buybacks, AAPL was valued, as Horace Dediu put it, “like a steel mill going out of business. This in spite of the recent introduction of the iPhone. I literally lost hope that Apple would be able to provide us a retirement. But then, Apple’s buybacks started to finally take hold, and slowly but surely we were made whole. To say I learned a lesson by that experience is an understatement.'
on Apple price target changes - 'Hi, Neal. You said that you think Apple “can grow into its present valuation.” You’re SO close to groking in fullness (sci fi reference) why Apple is worth every penny of a 40 P/E ratio! Free cash flow is continually driving the valuation higher over the years, because it funds Apple’s buybacks. It doesn’t seem like buybacks do much, but, like so many things, it’s cumulative. Every share we still own was acquired before we were forced into retirement following the Great Recession. Except for one horrible moment when I gambled (and lost!), we have been 100% invested in AAPL. But. Each of those shares has now nearly doubled in the percentage of Apple that it owns. I leave it to you to work out what that means in terms of the remaining shares since Apple started buybacks, factoring in the growth over time in free cash flow – which, as simple cash, is given almost zero value in the investment world. EVERYBODY is looking at Apple’s cash over debt and growing free cash flow, but almost nobody is looking at the cash that Apple has “invested” from past free cash flow in rewarding long term investors, or talks about it. The average Apple paid for those shares is almost absurdly low compared to what a share is worth today. That represents ROI that has been accumulating for 13 years – and continues to accumlate. Buybacks are not a “gimmick”: Buybacks are a legitimate investment, and the ROI goes to those who hold Apple long term. Donna and I took out an “insurance policy” when Donald Trump was elected two years back. For many long term investors here, it’s not much, but it meant selling AAPL, putting it into cash in a Fidelity savings account to at least shelter it from inflation, and then topping it up with more cash. We missed out on the AAPL gains we would have made if we hadn’t done that, but insurance costs.money, and we were rewarded enough over the years by owning Apple that we could afford it. It seems crazy to some to bet your whole wad on one company. But here we are, and here we intend to stay. It really turned out to not be such a crazy idea after all – if the company was Apple….'
on Apple price target changes - 'Paraphrasing what Smith-Barney used to say: “Apple makes money the old-fashioned way – they EARN it!” 🙂'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Still some oddly contradictory moves though: NVDA and other chip-makers are down, presumably on the thinking that AI datacenter buildout is going to be hampered and chip sales affected… but GOOG and MSFT are still up a lot, despite the catastrophic effect of their AI build-out plans on their financials and their significant exposure to Anthropic and SpaceX for GOOG, and OpenAI for MSFT. Chip prices going down only benefits hyperscalers if the scale of their plans retracts and the demand for chips drops… but then that kills their hyperscaling plans, and kills the frontier model developers’ plans and financials… which maybe the market thinks is a good thing for GOOG and MSFT?? Unless it’s a case of people not really thinking about implications of the Democratic wave, because they never understood the hyperscaler financials in the first place? All I know is I’m still using increases in GOOG and MSFT in the next two weeks as opportunities to sell what I have left of them.'
on Apple price target changes - 'Something to keep in mind: “Apple (AAPL) just had the biggest cash year in its history, and it didn’t need to build a fleet of AI data centers to get there. The iPhone maker generated about $136 billion in free cash flow — the cash left over after running the business and paying for buildings and equipment — in its fiscal year ended in September, according to its results Monday. That’s up about 38% from a year earlier and well above its previous record of about $111 billion in 2022. It’s also roughly twice what Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) made combined over their latest four quarters, by Yahoo Finance calculations.” Excerpt From “Apple just made twice as much free cash as Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon combined: Chart of the Day” Jared Blikre Yahoo Finance https://stocks.apple.com/AgVbpXPatQHKz24H4gKsvJw This material may be protected by copyright.'
on Apple price target changes - 'It’s actually pretty common, in the history of PED’s tracking of these hallucinations.'
on Apple price target changes - 'I can see there are a few outliers in this list and some noticeable absences of Bulls (Dan Ives who reiterated $400 price target) who I guess haven’t changed their targets so not on the list. Given the average of this list is 351.45. I am not seeing the wisdom of the crowd in this yet. I think it is underestimating Apple potential positives. And the average is under today’s current 352.65 (at 1:32PM price). So I would likely be disappointed if this average is correct a year out. I am sure there are a lot of different ways to manipulate numbers and just taking the analysts who have changed their numbers after earnings report is not showing me what really might be going on with the analyst community overall.'


