Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Heading into the final minutes of trading on this first day of the holiday-shortened week and stock prices are simply misbehaving with the major indexes in the red and the DJIA off more than 1%. However, Intel is higher by 9.70%, AMD is ahead 5.60% and Apple supplier Broadcom is up 2.78% while NVIDIA is off 2.19%. Apple continues to struggle. The shares are down $3.89 at $316.08 with about 10 minutes remaining before the closing bell.'
on Needham: 'The Odds are 4 to 1 Against AAPL' - '“incapable of seeing trends before they occur, instead basing her forward views on past performances.” Incapable, or chooses not to. Same wrong results. It’s true, she is the typical bean counter (“We argue that AAPL is a single product company”). And you can’t argue with her numbers. She’s just not looking at ALL the numbers and the trends they are pointing to for the future (greater installed base, greater income from services, greater income from AI related product sales (enterprise, education, private AI, etc). In other words, she does not appear to be looking at the future at all. My guess would be that she would panic if the percentage of total revenue from iPhones were to decrease, whereas I would see that as inevitable with silicon related sales and increases in services. Note that the percentage of total revenue coming from iPhones has decreased from 63% in 2016 to 50% in 2025.'
on Mark Gurman: Tim Cook, not John Ternus, made the foldable iPhone happen - 'Really strange narrative. Tim had to go to Asia to learn about folding phones? I heard rumors that Apple was testing folding iPhones long, long ago. Which they should have been doing. Of course they test all sorts of ideas.'
on Needham: 'The Odds are 4 to 1 Against AAPL' - 'I agree, John. Apple’s laser focus on its users’ best interests is considered hopelessly naive by the sharks of the world. Weirdly, those very same users don’t go along with that opinion….'
on Mark Gurman: Tim Cook, not John Ternus, made the foldable iPhone happen - 'If the new iPhone is part of the Apple Upgrade program, I would expect leasing one would cost about $100 a month. I figure lots of people could manage that (Me! Me! Me! Thanks Apple stock). And the major phone companies will subsidize the shit out of it. I suspect that few of the people purchasing the new foldable will pay full price upfront.'
on BofA sticks with its Buy rating for Apple and $380 target - 'Headline, $380… buy rating, $310…what’s $70 between friends?'
on BofA sticks with its Buy rating for Apple and $380 target - 'Bill: I too think Ternus will surprise us with a Jobsian “There’s one more thing…” tomorrow. Besides “surprise” being in the event name, it would be a hella way for him to end his first keynote as Apple’s new CEO. It would also accomplish several things simultaneously: 1) reinforce his image as a “product guy”; 2) reassure Apple employees and customers that the spirit of Steve Jobs is alive and well; and, 3) earn a huge amount of earned media. What will this new product be? I have no idea – perhaps the updated home center?'
on Needham: 'The Odds are 4 to 1 Against AAPL' - 'I just don’t agree with either Needham’s hypothesis or your hypothesis that Apple -needs a server/cloud LLM-.. I think cloud LLMs will be commodities, and Apple can outsource that to those who are better at cloud computing. Rather, I think Apple is focusing on ‘edge AI’, which is (a) a bigger market (each person with an Apple device), (b) a closer fit to Apple’s expertise, (c) and an area where Apple can build and maintain a competitive edge (and therefore a revenue edge.) Certainly you can consider me a neo-Luddite, but I _STILL_ don’t have the need to talk to my devices or to talk to LLMs.'
on BofA sticks with its Buy rating for Apple and $380 target - 'I have no idea and do not care if people will “sell the news” in the days immediately ahead, or if they will buy the news. Because, barring a surprise introduction of an important new product (a real possibility given that “surprise” is in the event name), it’s all rank speculation about what the state of AAPL will be at year end. I am unaware of the existence of any correlation between whether an Apple event precipitates “selling on the news” and its stock price 3 months later. It is short term noise, as far as I am concerned, and roughly as clarifying to a longterm investor as day-drinking or watching CNBC.'
on BofA sticks with its Buy rating for Apple and $380 target - 'Meanwhile, MoffettNathanson Adjusts Price Target on Apple to $304 From $270, Keeps Neutral Rating.'
on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - 'Yikes. And, looking at the major security problems with OpenAI’s AI agents and that company’s apparent lack of concern over AI security and privacy (or even possibly aggressive opposition to either), it’s hard not to assume that at least some of the AI-bot makers are ensuring that their products will hoover up as much data of all kinds from users, whether or not the users want it or forbid it.'
on BofA sticks with its Buy rating for Apple and $380 target - 'iPhone Duo or iPhone Air Duo Came across these on some rumor site.'
on Mark Gurman: Tim Cook, not John Ternus, made the foldable iPhone happen - 'It will be interesting to see how Tim Cook’s legacy gets arbitrated by all the “historians”. I am sure that some will want to relegate him to a bean counter and not give him much credit for anything that happened at Apple. These will be the analysts that have consistently undervalued the potential at Apple to get things done. By analogy, instead of crediting Jobs with all the things at Apple under his watch, maybe we should credit all the engineers that made the products happen. Another silly title looking to grab clicks.'
on Needham: 'The Odds are 4 to 1 Against AAPL' - 'I had AI brush up my answer: Apple suffered notable internal delays, talent drains, and stumbles trying to scale its own foundational LLMs. Recognizing it was YEARS behind OpenAI and Google, Apple made a pragmatic, multi-billion-dollar pivot to license outside brains rather than lose the smartphone market. In early 2026, Apple formally established a landmark multi-year partnership with Google. Google Gemini now serves as the underlying architecture and training foundation for Apple’s newly overhauled Siri and advanced Apple Intelligence features. Apple traded model ownership for distribution, and Google traded raw technology for ecosystem scale. While Google has the technical edge, it lacks the hardware ecosystem to guarantee dominance. By embedding Gemini into Siri across more than 2 billion active iOS devices, Google instantly scales its answer layer to an audience that may never consciously open a standalone AI app. While Apple depends on Google’s 1.2-trillion parameter model for heavy cloud reasoning, it isn’t *just* running a skinned version of the Gemini app. Apple uses Gemini outputs to train its own smaller, highly secure on-device models via distillation. Furthermore, Apple routes data through its secure Private Cloud Compute framework, meaning it still controls the user experience, privacy layer, and OS integration. If Apple hadn’t chosen Google—or if Apple decides to swap Google out for Anthropic’s Claude or OpenAI in future updates (leveraging iOS’s multi-model extension frameworks)—Google risks losing the default “front door” of the internet. Ultimately, Apple bought itself time to quietly build its own AI infrastructure in the background, while Google bought the world’s most valuable real estate—the iPhone Home Screen.'
on BofA sticks with its Buy rating for Apple and $380 target - 'Zero chance Apple will call their flagship phone fold – the same name as their competitors.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'FWIW, AMZN, GOOG, META and MSFT are down about the same amount as AAPL'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'I think this latest selloff are defensive moves pending Ternus’ KEYNOTE and product announcements. If he nails it AAPL will advance significantly. If not…'
on Needham: 'The Odds are 4 to 1 Against AAPL' - 'Actually, at one point she DID sorta get AAPL! “Last Buy Rating: June 2022 (maintaining a Buy rating and a $170 price target based on rising lifetime value and brand value). The Downgrade: June 2025, when she and Needham downgraded Apple to Hold from Buy due to a premium valuation, slowing growth relative to peers, and an absence of an immediate iPhone upgrade cycle. She has maintained her “Hold” rating through 2026.”'
on Needham: 'The Odds are 4 to 1 Against AAPL' - 'She doesn’t get apple – never has – never will. #clueless'
