Recent Comments

  • Greg Lippert on WSJ: How Apple plans to bring genAI to the masses - 'I don’t want my iPhone doing anything without asking, or really ME telling it what I want.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I agree with both your process and your findings, Gregg. Why? Because I’ve literally arrived at the same conclusions as you and Horace, but in my own idiosyncratic way. I also made the following comment on Asymco One: “ Hmm. I wonder if there’s any data on just how prevalent [analysts’ underestimating of Apple has] been? My guess: bad as it still is, it was a great deal more so in years past. Apple has perennially been doomed….'
  • Gregg Thurman on Counterpoint: Apple grows as low-end smartphone makers get squeezed - '” Palm with WebOS was the last true competitor, RIP.” If WebOS had the finances to offer products for 3 years (vs one) after its initial launch, Apple may have had a real competitor. I demoed one before iPhone 3G came out, and almost bought it. It was very fast and feature rich (including multi-tasking, something Apple didn’t introduce until a few years later). Unfortunately it had trouble attracting carriers.'
  • ben luna on Hundreds of Apple Vision Pro engineers have re-entered the job market - 'repost: That report is interesting in that it references Gruber’s post on the AVP team as a source, yet it contradicts his outright statements such as: —— I don’t know who told MacRumors what (and their sourcing is just “MacRumors has learned”), but I know for a fact that it is not true that the teams working on the Vision platform have “been redistributed to other teams within Apple.” It’s a strange thing for MacRumors to state so categorically something I believe has no truth to it whatsoever. And if there is some truth to it, it’s not what the article implies, which is that the whole thing has been shut down, somehow without the world knowing until now. —— The entire post is worth a read. https://daringfireball.net/2026/04/on_the_future_of_apples_vision_platform'
  • ben luna on Counterpoint: Apple grows as low-end smartphone makers get squeezed - 'I don’t begrudge these more affordable suppliers nearly as much as I detest goog’s and samsung’s slavish copies. They can afford to do better, have some pride, and should be instead pushing the state of the art forward. Palm with WebOS was the last true competitor, RIP.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on UBS: No WWDC fireworks - 'The latest price target on Apple from Mr. Vogt I can find is $296 issued May 1st. The shares closed at $311.23 today. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s surprised by what’s announced on Monday and throughout next week’s WWDC event.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on UBS: No WWDC fireworks - 'The ad is now featured on the Apple Insider home page. What’s hilarious is there was a banner ad for Chrome just below the article.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - 'If Horace’s 20 year CAGR of AAPL is more accurate than my simple 25%, then Ives’ AAPL PT of $400 implies an AAPL present value of $313. Today, AAPL seems to be trading in that orbit. I wouldn’t be surprised if AAPL continued to trade accordingly until July Earnings and GUIDANCE, following which I can see an Ives PT update, that matches Apple’s stated estimate of revenue growth for the September quarter.'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is green - '@Joseph There seems to be a bias among analysts for new, the edgy, the monopoly. Well over a decade ago a guy at TD Ameritrade suggested I sell AAPL because they were done for. Commodity phones would take over. It seems to be a kind of group think for them. Maybe they have seen too many other companies that tried to provide quality products fail in the face of cheap commodities? Also, looks like a surprising absence of puts in the chart PED posted above.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Thank you for that Joseph. It’s nice to see that someone as esteemed as Horace, has data that mirrors my own. I must admit I am not a trained statistician, and my observations are crude, but follow those of Asymco. That’s very satisfying ratification of my efforts. What my observations mean to me, is that over time, Apple will introduce new products to spur further revenue growth, and importantly, do not rely on marketing tricks to squeeze more life out of existing products. I’m thinking here of the path taken by MSFT, GOOG, INTC, QCOM and many others who are lauded over by lazy WS analysts. I don’t require inside info to know that Apple has already chosen an extremely examined path that in the long run will pay off handsomely. I’ve been an investor in AAPL since 1997 when Jobs returned. I traded shares until my bankruptcy and divorce in 2004/2005 (when I gladly gave everything to my ex. With no assets and no cash I began trading options because of their low capital requirements a high yield potential. I quickly learned it took a much deeper understanding of AAPL to be successful. So I started measuring everything. As an engineer I’m sure you understand that. As my personal journey progressed I learned that most of what I was tracking was worthless. I discarded lots of unnecessary data until I stumbled on the thought that AAPL may have a seasonality to its trading patterns. Again I tracked many things, ultimately discarding all but a few. Where I am at now started a few years ago (5?). When I realized that number of units sold meant nothing, revenue per item meant nothing, “PE” ( as it is used) meant nothing. What was important was the perception of future growth. I coined Investor Sentiment Multiplier to replace “PE”. The formula is the same, only how you interpret the results changed. First, there is no such thing as a multiple that is to high, or too low. It is is what it is because the collective made it so. The Multiple is an expression of how the collective views Apple’s/AAPL’s future. At the same time as I has this epiphany I realized that ALL analysts, despite their enormous resources are just guessing. This came to me after years of posting my revenue and earnings estimates on estimize.com I noticed that the independents on estimize.com consistently were more accurate than WS “experts”. That’s when I stopped listening to the noise generated by WS and the media, and really listened to Apple’s conference calls and its GUIDANCE. Reports from the media that APPLE is doing/not doing this or that suddenly meant nothing to me. Nobody knows better than Apple management, and they reveal five times per year: four conference calls and WWDC. It shouldn’t be a surprise that AAPL’s annual trading pattern reflects those 5 “catalysts”. One of the charts I continue to monitors is how AAPL trades on a daily basis FROM EARNING REPORT TO EARNINGS REPORT. At those points Apple’s display of change in its fundamentals are made public. The big reveal is WWDC. Ironically, just as WS and the media should see what’s transpiring, they fail to see the significance of Apple’s announcements. They are totally incapable of putting the dots together. I don’t know, but I feel Ives is doing something similar. Thanks again Joseph. PS., I welcome any thoughts on the above.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'It was a good day for the DJIA! The index finished up 1.73% while hitting new all-time highs. UnitedHealth led the index higher with a 5.16% gain. Goldman Sachs (up 4.96%), followed by Merck (up 4.85%), American Express (up 3.98%) and JPMorgan (3.34%) filled out the leaderboard. In general, it was a very good day for the nation’s financial sector. Apple shares finished the day up $0.97 at $311.23. 
'
  • Robert Stack on UBS: No WWDC fireworks - 'Yes – it’s quite funny. I found it on YouTube by simply searching “Apple ad Chrome”. Good choice of music to go with the ad, as you’d expect from Apple.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Hi, Gregg. A while back, I “treated” myself to signing up for Horace Dediu’s Asymco One. Today, coincidental to your post, he wrote an article that notes (1) over the last 20 years, Apple’s CAGR equals 26.6%, and its share price has compounded at 27.7%. And yet, 42% of analysts rate it a hold or sell, and 10% don’t even rate it. He ends the article with this statement: “The skeptical claims have not presented extraordinary evidence. The strongest has been that if AI can create an alternative to the user interface Apple pioneered, and if Apple would not be incentivized to embrace this new paradigm, and if enough users would abandon the comfortable and familiar digital life Apple affords them then Apple would slow or stagnate. There are a lot of “ifs” in this argument. Each more dubious than the other. In contrast, the “flywheel” or momentum of serving 1.3+ billion users with iris-dilating products and services provided at premium positioning seems self-explanatory. That almost 40% of the analysis covering Apple believe that it cannot deliver above-index average growth continues to amaze me.” He’s not alone….'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Hope there are no black swans to poop on our parade!'
  • Steven Philips on Hundreds of Apple Vision Pro engineers have re-entered the job market - 'I’ll stand – right behind you! 🙂 I really, really hope you’re right.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - 'At the Close AAPL’s intraday low establishes a new ATH. After the irrational selloff from Monday AAPL has regained its feet. Applying the average of the 3 lowest percentage growth rates, of the past 5 years to today’s intraday low, it appears AAPL will print ~$324 on JULY expiry. Ives’ $400 target implies a present value of $320. Based solely on historical trends I’m guessing Ives’ next PT will be $500 by January 2027. I’m also expecting an AAPL Split (3:1?) at ~$450. Historically, AAPL goes up ~25% from the Summer low (July 4th weekend?) to JANUARY Earnings Report. Historical trends seem to be aligning in our favor for a great Fall. Go everybody, regardless of strategy.'
  • John Konopka on UBS: No WWDC fireworks - 'Apple released a new privacy ad titled Chrome. Pretty funny. Maybe related to WWDC?'
  • Stephen Gordon on UBS: No WWDC fireworks - 'I don’t expect fireworks but I do expect improvements. That’s about it.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Financial giants Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are up bigly today. Goldman is ahead 4.60% at $1,088.88 and Morgan Stanley is up 3.70% at $217.92. Citi and BofA are also up more than 3% and private credit enterprise Blue Owl, recovering from yesterday’s sell off, is up 7.69% today at $10.44. What happens when an AI-related chip maker disappoints on outlook? “Look out below!” Broadcom is down 14.68% today at $408.90. Meanwhile, Apple is up $0.53 at $310.79. 
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  • Fred Stein on Hundreds of Apple Vision Pro engineers have re-entered the job market - 'GlassDoor aggregates the opinions of the employees about Apple culture, benefits, CEO approval etc., no spin, just data. Ignore third party hallucinations.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Hundreds of Apple Vision Pro engineers have re-entered the job market - 'I stand by my belief that there will be a significant Vision Pro announcement at WWDC, and that that announcement will involve availability and pricing.'
  • Steven Philips on UBS: No WWDC fireworks - 'As opposed to analyst “tools” ?'
  • Steven Philips on Counterpoint: Apple grows as low-end smartphone makers get squeezed - 'Leave the market? No no no! File a class action lawsuit against the mean old monopolist memory hog.'
  • Joseph Bland on Hundreds of Apple Vision Pro engineers have re-entered the job market - 'Read it, and don’t buy it. BTW, really smacks of AI, which is just a different kind of guesswork without the benefit of imagination. For example: – NOBODY but Apple knows their real plans. Full stop. – This is looking at folks leaving, not at folks hiring in, and relies heavily on folks voluntarily leaving for more money, better upward mobility, etcetera. Just pure dartboard shooting. – Of COURSE Vision Pro sales have slowed: It’s a high tech product with a limited market right now. But to think that fricking glasses can do what the Vision Pro does is ridiculous. Light leakage alone will make that impossible. Ergo, there will always be a demand for what only the goggle form can give you.'
  • Robert Douglass on Hundreds of Apple Vision Pro engineers have re-entered the job market - 'Thank you Johnny T …. After reading the actual article, it is abundantly clear that the “Apple Culture” is a real thing of value, and is very much alive and well, after all these years since Steve Jobs created it. The uniqueness of a former Apple employee cannot be underestimated. This bodes well for Apple’s future.'
  • Darren DMW on Counterpoint: Apple grows as low-end smartphone makers get squeezed - 'Travel through many parts of the world and you will see the low end shamelessly copying, no counterfeiting, apple’s designs. If this means they can profit no more while apple (slowly) moves to offer more affordable entry points and take market share then good.'
  • Jonny T on Ming-Chi Kuo: John Ternus has torn up my Apple vision roadmap - 'A wish list for Apple competitors? Therefore it may be Apple directed misinformation.'
  • Jonny T on Hundreds of Apple Vision Pro engineers have re-entered the job market - 'Sorry. I do not understand why Apple Vision Pro is in this headline…'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Hi, Rodney. Yep. Just another dragging indicator.'