Joseph Bland on Apple at $333.74: Third all-time high in as many days - 'Hi Bill. Yep. My favorite: “Apple preserved its shareholders’ wealth because they focused on their customers.” What Horace pointed out elsewhere in his stellar analysis is that “Free cash flow is wealth and it belongs to shareholders.” This is why I’m happy I signed up for Asymco One. What a pleasure reading Horace! And that “Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle decided to transfer their shareholders’ wealth to the shareholders of Nvidia, Micron, Broadcom and Applied Materials”. Pretty darned simple, really. And pretty darned damning.'
on Apple at $333.74: Third all-time high in as many days - 'The last two paragraphs perfectly summarizes the story of what’s been going on with and in AI for the last two years!'
on Apple at $333.74: Third all-time high in as many days - 'Now HSBC analyst upgrades AAPL to new $366 price target: https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/hsbc-upgrades-apple-stock-price-target-ahead-of-earnings'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Why did AAPL go green and the options houses have to pony up? 63.33. That’s the number of trades today, a little under 9 M shares traded over the average.'
on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'I agree (and have been saying here for several years) that the primary risk to Apple the company is regulatory attacks. And the more Apple is successful, the bigger the target it gets for regulators (particularly those who start with the proposition that “big is inherently evil,” including but not limited to EU.) Apple is one of those stocks that rises before earnings, and drops like a rock afterwards, in the best tradition of ‘buy rumors, sell news.’ But that’s OK. People who like options can ‘play the pattern.” The rest of us can just ignore it and watch the general trend for compares (particularly comparisons to the same quarter previous years, because a lot of Apple’s business is cyclical.) In the meantime, ignore the ANALysts and talking heads.'
on Apple at $333.74: Third all-time high in as many days - 'From Horace today: “Why all-in and why all are in” “Take all my money, please.” “…In other words, why all-in and why all are in. Of course, there is one anomaly: Not “all” are in. Apple is not all-in and it’s the only one of the Magnificent 7 that is conspicuously hedging on this wealth transfer. Apple may be the anomaly that answers the paradox. The reason Apple stayed out will not be found in the “wise manager theory” of avoiding failure. Apple preserved its shareholders’ wealth because they focused on their customers. (Yes, quite an anticlimax.) They did not have data centers to serve ads and sell capacity to businesses. They did not assume that customers’ data is a commodity to be traded. They worried about privacy and quality of experience. They had to convince each buyer to decide to buy individually. In other words, they had a very simple business model: sell things to people who decide to buy because it works for them. But it required a complex execution. They had an integrated business: from retail to distribution to manufacturing and all the way to silicon. They did not sit only at the top of the stack. They sat at the bottom of the stack too. And in the middle. They were aware of the power of silicon and of hardware and of operating systems, APIs, design and everything in between. Having this perspective on their own business and customers, making all-in bets on a single technology that may be vulnerable to rapid commoditization3 seemed unwise. When everyone was throwing everything at “infrastructure” they looked at their own infrastructure and asked what the big deal was. When all the “compute” spending went to Nvidia, Apple asked why can’t we just build our own, 1000x more processors? When projections of infinite revenues were made Apple asked where it would come from and how will it be segmented and justified and how exactly will consumers benefit and pay for it. The head scratching was seen as foolishness or foot dragging or fatal delays but it was genuine prudence. The more alone Apple was the more it was accused of stupidity. Au contraire! The suspicion should have been on the “group” making wild bets not on the skeptic sitting on his hands. Always be suspicious of beliefs in miracles and especially of any consensus in them. But that is how markets work. Overreaction is axiomatic; disillusionment guaranteed.”'
on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - '@Richard A few years ago an opinion piece in The Economist compared Apple to IBM saying both had staying power because of their mission statements. Neither is wedded to a particular product or technology. IBM’s mission is to bring technology to business so they could transition from typewriters to computers to quantum computing and other things. Apple’s mission is to bring technology to consumers so they could transition from Macs to iPods to iPhones to whatever comes next. They have said that there is no fear about cannibilizing any product. Better they do it than a competitor.'
on Apple at $333.74: Third all-time high in as many days - 'Look at all that green right after the Apple 3.0 dinner.'
on Apple at $333.74: Third all-time high in as many days - 'I’m both surprised and super excited that AAPL held its ground on a Friday after such significant gains. Go Apple, go AAPL!'
on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'But maybe, as Shel (Uncle Shelby) Silverstein once sang, “It does not pay to be too hip.” 🙂'
on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'Hey John, I agree. It is always about the guidance. Less so about results these days. But as Apple is very pricey these days, results may matter more than before. I would add a couple of things that could go wrong. First, as Apple continues to succeed, it will invite more regulatory scrutiny. I think this is probably the biggest thing for Apple to continue to navigate. Still a possibility is that Apple could lose its way with the hardware and or software. Like the gnashing of teeth that they had with the Siri problem a couple of years ago. Maybe they don’t do a good job with the foldable or with future iterations of the Apple Vision Pro. I am not saying these things will happen. But they are all potential landmines that a company like Apple will have to try and avoid.'
on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - '@Neal As I write this Apple just passed NVIDIA again. 4.909T to 4.905T. I think we’ll get a better feel for your concerns at the earnings call. Especially when we hear the guidance. Compared to other times Apple seems to be be riding a long wave of successes. Siri AI looks very good, the folding iPhone is the first new form for that, MacBook neo is great, M5/6/7/8 are fantastic. Maybe we’ll see some sort of glasses next year. Apple TV shows are garnering manny awards. On the other hand, I can’t think of many negatives. Some legal troubles with the EU. Possibly some black swans: China could invade Taiwan starting a war with the US, Japan, Korea and others. Trump could send on the military to confiscate ballots in the midterms and void the election. Another epidemic could arrive. Massive heat domes could ruin crops. Let’s plan for the worst, hope for the best. 🙂'
on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'Round? Flat? Maybe for Apple, as Huey sang, its hip to be square.'
on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'In an economics class I took, the professor mentioned something interesting that impacts how I feel about Apple. He was talking about when to be in index funds and when to focus on individual stocks. When the market is chugging along, index funds work great, even in recessions and pullbacks. Because almost everything is doing great. But during massive pullbacks, such as depressions, index funds do not work as well as finding the right stock. Using the Depression as an example, it took the Dow 25 years to regain the highs it had before the crash (10 years if dividends were reinvested). But if you had been invested in IBM (necessary for Social Security numbers to be crunched) or Coca-Cola (people gotta drink), you would have seen huge returns in that time. I think Apple is the IBM of any coming tough times. And the smart money now recognizes this and is moving into it. It suggests to me that the smart money is increasingly worried about the economy and that Apple is the defensive stock to hold.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - '“Max pain moves up $10 to $300…” Volume at 9:30 AM PDT was about 30 M. That is high for that time of day. Are the options houses throwing in the towel at $330/share (two attempts to go under that have failed thus far), or are they saving their black powder for EOD? Stay tuned for yet another episode of The Perils of Apple…. BTW, the only tech stock on my list to show green today is Broadcom, which has clawed its way back to flat. That is the backdrop to Apple’s battle…'
on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'Thus, I agree (snd upvoted you) that the “irrational exuberance” of expectation for an immediate AI ROI is dissipating, and that Apple, being one of the few companies actually creating an ROI from AI, is benefitting. However, the “fear” of the AI balloon springing a leak, plus the likelihood that the AI boom has been keeping the whole market growing and the nervousness about the effect of that on the whole market going away, plus the general nervousness of the country as a whole, is IMO a long term phenomenon. When you measure that against a near-guarantee that Apple is going to be increasing ROI without regard to the general retrenchment, then it doesn’t seem to me to be a short-term (days or even weeks) move into AAPL that we’re seeing, but a longer term revaluation. Yes, compared to the “instant riches” of a NVDA, AAPL’s gains in EPS are more sedate, but they aren’t negative over looming inflation, but positive. That’s good enough for a lot of folks.'
on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'Morning, Neal, I don’t think it’s “irrational exuberance” driving AAPL so much as it’s fear and a desire for safety. If so, then we won’t see any appreciable fall-back until the fear dissipates. The question then becomes – what is the nature of that fear, and when can it be expected to begin dissipating? IMO, the fear is deep-seated, and it will be measured in months, because it’s about the state of the Union.'
on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'David, Upvoted. While I do like the share price where it is, I am wondering if the stock has gotten a bit head of itself and will pause here for a while for earnings catch up with the present valuation. I can’t help but feel the money from the irrational exuberance that is now coming out of AI/Memory stocks is now going into Apple with some of the same irrational exuberance and, therefore, bidding up the price. But as long as Apple continues to perform and the story stays good, then earnings will, eventually catch up with the present share price.'
on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'Apple is smarter than the average bear. It’s AI strategy was the appropriate thing from the beginning. The fact that it takes time to get Siri, integrated with AI was a PR stumble, but in the long run, it doesn’t matter at all because there is no deadline. They are the default consumer gateway. And most importantly because of the loyalty of its customers and ginormous installed base. As long as Apple‘s business model is intact, it is still the best long-term investment in high-tech in my opinion. Happy trading, everyone. Enjoy your profits, it ain’t over by a longshot.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Not that I really care in the long run, but that is still satisfying…'
on Apple analysts argue the stock round and flat (video) - 'My take: KeyBanc's downgrade to Underweight with a $250 target looks as wrong-headed on Friday — before shares set a couple of all-time high closes — as it did on Monday. And did any of those “experts” challenge KeyBanc’s clear miss?'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Thanks for the well wishes … Green looks too hard for aapl today … I am off to bed.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Looks like no Friday morning boost. No worries – has been a great couple of weeks selling small parcels, each one at a new ATH. I only sell at ATH in AUD and only when my next sale is AUD$3.50 more than my last sale. With mini parcels I can keep that going for 5 to 10 years.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Bart/Darren: I feel like I’m a spectator at a sporting event rooting on Darren as the home team. Thanks for the e-ticket; now it’s “GO DARREN GO!” 🙂'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'As I write this, Apple has overtaken Nvidia in market cap to become No. 1 again.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Locked & loaded. AUD is down .4% … so can deal myself in from $335.75'
on Barron's: What Apple learned from J.D. Rockefeller - 'Apple & its leadership & employees as its source of energy (i.e. its “oil, hydro, wind, solar, nuclear, et al”) harnessed to ‘s success into how it’s distributed (e.g. its products & services), yeah – I can dig it, more ‘power’ to you, AAPL.'
on Horace Dediu: Why Apple might be eyeing the eyewear market - 'That’s an interesting problem. Apple offers Vision Pro Zeiss lenses that support both progressive & bifocal prescriptions, which I got the progressive ones. Only my reading distance requires the script. My VP doesn’t have a shifting issue from reader to computer distance but there seems to be a slight lag going to long distance beyond 18+ft. It was nice meeting you & your lovely wife last Saturday, Lenny.'
on Barron's: What Apple learned from J.D. Rockefeller - 'That was an interesting article. To continue the discussion: Rockefeller combined refinery purchases with back-room deals with railroads to transport crude to his refineries (cheaper than the competition). He also invested heavily in pipelines. So he controlled both refineries and transportation. Not sure Apple should get into the ‘transportation’ side (ISPs). But it might be fun to consider Apple-branded satellite internet from a rocket company. 🙂'


