Recent Comments

  • ben luna on Big bet on Apple puts - 'Is it possible to sell options to a specific person?'
  • John Konopka on High praise for Apple TV - '@Steven I loved Mythic Quest, once I got past the first couple of episodes. Coming from the tech industry I recognized a lot of the scenes. The finance guy was fun, he just wanted power and didn’t care or know about the product. In a small office I once managed we had a similar finance person. She thought the company money was her own and sometimes refused to spend it even when I authorized it. Season 2 Episode 6 (Backstory), pretty much stands alone as a separate story. It tells the backstory of the writer starting as a fresh faced, young writer out to conquer the world and the way he was brought to earth. I loved it though it hurt a lot. The ending was beautiful. Not on the list is Lessons in Chemistry. Only 83% on Rotten Tomatoes but I really loved it. Very intelligent story. Sadly, only one season because that covered the book. Another one is Sugar, only 81% but I really liked it. It has the feel of an updated version of The Big Sleep. The visuals are great. A new season is coming this summer.'
  • John Konopka on Nate B. Jones: Apple has made a hardware bet against cloud AI (video) - 'From the comment section of this video: “ I’ve been thinking about this for a few weeks, since I first learned about OpenClaw. Frankly, I’m a total Apple hater. I’ve never in my life owned a single Apple product, by choice. But I just bought a Mini, and am waiting for it to arrive and set up my private AI. I can’t believe how this private AI/compute issue has managed to get me over the line, to not only buy an Apple product, but to pay like $3,000+ for a super high-end Apple product. ” There could be an under-the-radar aspect to this. One is that if Srouji et al have been steering their chip design in this direction for a few years then the M6, M7, … could really be powerhouses for AI. Especially if you setup a stack of a dozen or so. Perhaps Apple will release the software needed to make this grouping easier. Another thought is that the analysts have been so focused on the consumer aspect of AI they may have missed the benefits to consumers and Apple of on-device AI. Consumers get the benefits of cost and security. Apple gets the benefits of more sales of Mac products and more frequent upgrades (as Nate suggested). As others have pointed out, WWDC keynote will be fantastic. How much of this will Apple talk about?'
  • Joseph Bland on WSJ: Sam Altman's AI math doesn't add up - 'Sorry, Mark. I won’t touch X with a ten foot pole.'
  • John Konopka on Nate B. Jones: Apple has made a hardware bet against cloud AI (video) - '@Neal No inside information, but a few years ago there was the video of John Ternus and Woz by Joanna Stern (I think) and when asked about AI they sort of knowingly looked at each other and said they were very happy with their AI strategy. I would infer from that that they had already set in place a multi-year plan to build up the M series chips for edge based AI. One might even say they were skating to where the puck would be.'
  • Mark Visnic on WSJ: Sam Altman's AI math doesn't add up - 'Fuller analysis here. Not for the first time, the WSJ is behind the curve and providing confirmation for consensus bias. https://x.com/firstadopter/status/2049128801255198823?s=20'
  • Joseph Bland on WSJ: Sam Altman's AI math doesn't add up - 'I agree, David; it is interesting. Upvoted. And yes, I suspect there to be at least Alphabet and Microsoft vying against Apple in this arena, and probably a couple of others outside US companies. I just hope Apple is not completely abandoning the Cloud AI field, if for no other reasons than they don’t have to, and they can easily afford not to. Because Alphabet/Google has played games with them before. I just don’t expect them to make much of a dent. I remember Google Maps….'
  • Joseph Bland on WSJ: Sam Altman's AI math doesn't add up - 'Well said, Gregg, upvoted, and I completely agree. I was playing devil’s advocate, serving it up for you to hammer it home. #:^)'
  • David Emery on WSJ: Sam Altman's AI math doesn't add up - 'It is interesting to me to ponder Google and OpenAI as competitors/enemies, fighting over access to users through devices and device/user access alliances. Part of me says “With Google owning Android and allied with Apple, that war is over before it’s begun.” But more generally, -IF- OpenAI survives, OpenAI vs Google might well be the Battle of the Titans that dominates a lot of Big Tech for the next couple of years. Apple has a role in that. It’s not clear what Microsoft’s role would be, could they become the 3rd opponent in Triad Wars?'
  • Gregg Thurman on WSJ: Sam Altman's AI math doesn't add up - 'Hi Joseph. When I look at the cellular experience of MSFT and GOOG I am not impressed. Microsoft had Windows CE, then bought Nokia when it became apparent that Apple’s iPhone was eating everybody’s lunch. Both ventures were failures. GOOG had been planning Android as a free OS for flip phones. The iPhone entered the market and the vision for Android was shit canned in favor of an iPhone inspired model. It was a hilarious piece of crap that didn’t come out until the iPhone 4. GOOG completely missed the premium market, something Apple has a lot of experience with, and had to settle for a very competitive commodity market with rapidly declining margins. As an engine to drive search based advertising Android was fantastic. As a smartphone OS the only firms to genuinely benefit from Android were GOOG (advertising) and Samsung (fast copier). But Samsung had bullied its competition who tried to seek recompense for its copying. Apple wasn’t like the competition and won. Neither MSFT nor GOOG control the whole stack. By virtue of that they will never be able to match, let alone surpass Apple’s mobile offerings. I’m not in the least bit concerned about those two as future competitors of Apple. To the contrary, I think they need Apple’s shirttails in order to survive in an “AI” future.'
  • Bill Donahue on Macalope: Three reasons Apple's CEO switch has been so chill - 'I don’t think you need to go that far afield, Fred. I’d say Sam Altman is the biggest threat to OpenAI.'
  • Philip Elmer-DeWitt on UBS up Apple target $7 to $287 - '“Typo should say – ‘raises target to $287’” Argh. Fixed. Thanks.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Volume yesterday was a little below average, and initially dropped Apple down to just about $265/share. Options and negative media played their part in it, setting up what looks to become a nice gain for yesterday’s bottom purchasers of AAPL during or following Apple’s fast-approaching earnings call – additional black swans staying absent, of course. Except for the crap media manipulation, I no longer have a problem with folks making a buck from these downdrafts, since Apple itself can often take advantage of the drops on our behalf, either with open market purchases of AAPL or with ASRs. I just prefer the boring safety of a long term Apple position steadily increasing our net worth.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Big bet on Apple puts - 'I just placed a Sell order on my Call Spread position at $4.85 (max value is $5.00). I don’t expect that order to fill until after earning/guidance. At that time, with solid guidance for the June quarter (two months remaining) there will be 3 months to the next earnings report (July) I will again purchase $20/$25 in the money for July. I will reinvest the total gain from my initial investment. I anticipate those contracts to be about 130 JUL $250/$255 Call Spreads vs 100 of my initial purchase.'
  • Joseph Bland on WSJ: Sam Altman's AI math doesn't add up - 'Hi, Gregg. OpenAI, unless I miss my bet, is going to be forced to ultimately hang its shield with Microsoft, in order to get product that’s sellable out the door in a timely fashion. Of course, there’s irony in that, since once upon a time Apple hung its shield with Microsoft, only to be ultimately betrayed with Windows. OTOh, Apple is partnering with Alphabet, which has a stable of Android, Chrome, and Pixel, not to mention Google Search. Clearly, if OpenAI can envision an integrated AI smartphone, so can Alphabet. IMO, for this reason alone, Apple may be continuing its own Cloud AI development. But, of course, we’ll hear nothing about it, and rightly so. I’m hoping it’s sandboxed off somewhere, learning by watching, and getting ready for the inevitable moment Alphabet goes up hard against the iPhone.'
  • Gregg Thurman on WSJ: Sam Altman's AI math doesn't add up - '” But the timeline that was published by Kuo is just way too aggressive. IMO.” Correctomundo. Beyond that, how many pioneers are going to adopt OpenAI’s new mobile device (in 3-4 years) when the most loved mobile has a decade head start. Maybe I’m smoking too much hopium, but the evidence against the data center model seems to me to be piling up. There’s way too much capacity at too high a price for centralized, general use “AI” to be successful. The on device models scales with the expansion of Apple device users, and is financed by those users, not Apple.'
  • Joseph Bland on Macalope: Three reasons Apple's CEO switch has been so chill - 'The Horny One is always a fun read. Thanks, PED!'
  • Joseph Bland on WSJ: Sam Altman's AI math doesn't add up - 'Hi, Neal. It’s called being all cart and no horse….'
  • Greg Boyd on High praise for Apple TV - 'https://giphy.com/gifs/AppleTV-apple-tv-app-gyeHU9NakQBXa8imRJ If you don’t like “Slow Horses” we can’t be friends.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - '” Options must be more complicated than what Wikipedia says.” No, they aren’t. The complication in options not knowing how they work. There isn’t a single person on this forum that couldn’t learn. All they have to do is open their mind to the fact that there are other ways to invest.'
  • Joseph Bland on Nate B. Jones: Apple has made a hardware bet against cloud AI (video) - 'Sorry – just dated myself – I meant MacBook, of course…. And I join with the rest of you in saying that this sounds on the money, although I’m not qualified to judge more than generally. I’ll be running it past my stepson to see his reaction. He is one of those folks Mr. Jones was specfically talking to at the last.'
  • Joseph Bland on Nate B. Jones: Apple has made a hardware bet against cloud AI (video) - 'Huh, William. All I saw was books and a big ass model rocket….'
  • Joseph Bland on Nate B. Jones: Apple has made a hardware bet against cloud AI (video) - 'Hi, Gregg, I’d modify it to simply say “Long live Apple chips!”. Turns out the M5 Powerbook is equally in demand. When practically your whole product line is struggling to meet demand, and it’s taken you literally decades to build it up, you have to be blind to not see the incredible potential value of the company. Advantage, Apple and Apple longs, and maybe game, set, and match.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Nate B. Jones: Apple has made a hardware bet against cloud AI (video) - '“One question for the group. Did the Apple pivot on AI come about because they failed in the race and had to pivot or was this the plan all along?” Based on Apple’s CapEx, they may have started in the race, but by staying within their budget, they quickly changed paths.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Monday’s put peak at $190 went poof!” Options must be more complicated than what Wikipedia says.'
  • Joseph Bland on UBS up Apple target $7 to $287 - '“…macro weakness dampening product demand…” Not exactly Apple’s problem alone. I suppose I’m grateful he has a price target that’s above AAPL’s present price, under the circumstances The blackest of black swans hovers over the whole world’s economy. In the meantime, Apple just keeps practicing continual improvement and serving its customer base just like Mr. Deming taught, lo those many decades ago.'
  • Bill Donahue on Nate B. Jones: Apple has made a hardware bet against cloud AI (video) - 'Which is why they’ve begun using SPVs to finance the vast spends. Or, more accurately, to keep evidence of the spends off their books.'
  • William Baggs on Nate B. Jones: Apple has made a hardware bet against cloud AI (video) - 'I looked at what he’s got on his shelf and thought, nah.'
  • Fred Stein on Nate B. Jones: Apple has made a hardware bet against cloud AI (video) - 'Hi David, Give it a listen. The sub title is misleading. Apple chose device vs. cloud, which is winning choice. It’s also a much better business regardless.'
  • Jeff Daniel on Nate B. Jones: Apple has made a hardware bet against cloud AI (video) - 'PED, Thanks for sharing. Very interesting.'