Recent Comments

  • David Emery on iPhone 18 Pro series up 3.1% from the iPhone 17 Pros - 'No previous administration has taken the combined legal assaults on the voting system, coupled with continual mis-statements across the administration to create FUD on election systems.'
  • Gregg Thurman on iPhone 18 Pro series up 3.1% from the iPhone 17 Pros - 'Greg, I appreciate your angst about this premenon, but the realty is that every administration does this.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Daniel Ives: The Ternus cadence continues - 'Fee based AI will be an impediment to AI adoption by the masses. I can see a low use tier that is free until AI usage become a higher usage tier, then even higher as usage increases. As the “token” tier usage increases, the subscription prices will look the same as the lower tier. The difference being that full usage of the tier will be charged despite your actual usage, until your usage puts you in a higher tier. The effects of this strategy results in higher net prices, as the initial used portion of the tier is charged at a higher net, declining until the tier usage is maxed out at the subscription rate. As the number of tiers being subscribed increases, the cost of the free tier declines as a percentage of the overall charge Apple won’t be selling “tokens”, it’ll be selling “tiers”.'
  • Greg Lippert on iPhone 18 Pro series up 3.1% from the iPhone 17 Pros - 'This criminal administration is trying to hide the bad news – that they created – as part of their attempt to steal the elections and become the perennial leadership with head fake democracy.'
  • Gregg Thurman on iPhone 18 Pro series up 3.1% from the iPhone 17 Pros - 'From the estimates you can see units declining, but only Apple’s revenue grew, underlying its belief that revenue, as a growth metric, is more important than unit growth.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Evercore is sticking with its $380 Apple target - 'Using the formula above, one year’s average daily prints may target $454 ~this time next year, or about a 30% gain (rounded down from 30.9%). I think that is about average in a higher growth year, as FY2027 may prove to be.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Evercore is sticking with its $380 Apple target - '”If we assume a more likely 20% increase a year out (barring black swans), that’s (347X1.2=) $416.40/share….” Another way of looking at growth potential, is to look at daily average move during the previous one year period, then use that moving average to calculate AAPL’s price target for your desired period, adding it to the days Closing print. I’ve been toying with, and will continue to do so until it shows validity, or does not. Right now it’s a mind excise to keep the gray matter somewhat functioning properly.'
  • Bart Yee on iPhone 18 Pro series up 3.1% from the iPhone 17 Pros - 'Of note, a few other options or rationalizations: 1. Others includes Europe, Rest of APAC, India, Middle East. That showed 3% growth YoY and was on par with China volumes. 2. US declines are may be due to 18 Pro model purchases being delayed or withheld until Duo evaluations online or in hand are done to make up buyers’ minds about a. Buy the Duo b. Don’t buy the Duo and buy the Pro Max or Pro c. Don’t buy either and buy an earlier 17 or 16 d. Don’t buy either and stick with what you have and wait for 20th anniversary iPhone or Duo 2/Duo Pro e. Don’t buy either and buy non-Apple product. I think this is a much lower but non-zero possibility. This decision tree also applies to Europe and China. 3. The iPhone 17 is still being sold at a slightly higher $899, up $100 price tag, after Sept 9, 2026, acting as de facto current base iPhone. It likely is still drawing some demand for those who can’t wait or are worried about additional price increases for the upcoming iPhone 18. This provides support for an elevated ASP and, despite volumes lower than the missing iPhone 18, help maintain a floor of revenue from non-Pro models. 4. • Apple raised the prices of all existing previous-generation iPhones still sold in its store by $100 on Sept.9, in time for last 3 weeks of Q3: • iPhone 16: $799 +14.3% • iPhone 17e: $699 +16.7% • iPhone 17: $899 +12.5% • iPhone Air: $1,099 +10% There will be price elasticity in these models – price up, demand and sales down, but very likely offsetting to some degree. Note the 16, after two years, is now selling for the same price as when it was released in 2024, although inflation and RAM actually makes it still a bargain considering. Basic Margins may still be healthy. Recall Omdia, IDC and Counterpoint all contend total Q3 sales volumes are down about 19-22%, almost all in Android budget tiers. Gemini’s Breakdown by Vendor Using above sources: 1. Samsung • IDC: Shipped 57.8 million units (22.6% market share, down 5.8% YoY). • Counterpoint & Omdia: Controlled a 23% market share to retain the #1 global spot. • Smart Analytics: Placed them at a 24% market share (up 2% YoY), citing strong premium mix buffers. • Drivers: Buffered against steeper losses through robust initial demand for its Z8 foldable family, specifically the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold8. (IMO, a half truth because although popular, only represents at best 5M of total, <10%) 2. Apple • IDC: Shipped 57.3 million units (22.4% market share, down 4.0% YoY). • Counterpoint & Omdia: Held a 22% market share. Counterpoint noted this is the first time Apple has breached a 20% share during any Q3 window. • Smart Analytics: Documented a mild 2% shipment dip YoY, leaving them with a 20% global share. • Drivers: Strong high-end insulation via the Apple iPhone 17 series and initial rollout of the Apple iPhone 18 Pro lineup. (Note ASP rise in Sept. helps offset small decline) 3. Xiaomi • IDC: Shipped 30.7 million units, suffering a steep 29.2% contraction YoY. • Counterpoint & Omdia: Logged a 12% market share. • Drivers: Highly exposed to price-sensitive value segments, making it difficult to maintain margins without spiking consumer retail prices. 4. OPPO • IDC: Shipped 25.6 million units, falling 34.5% YoY. • Counterpoint & Omdia: Accounted for a 9% market share. 5. vivo • IDC: Shipped 19.1 million units, marking a 31.5% YoY drop. • Counterpoint & Omdia: Rounded out the top five with an 8% market share. You can see Xiaomi, Oppo & Vivo were hit pretty hard. If my suspicions are correct, Samsung, despite leading shipment, will show a $1.2-1.5B loss for smartphones.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Premarket: Apple is red - 'With companies like Robin Hood anyone can buy partial shares very easily. There’s no barrier now days if someone wants to buy $10 worth of Apple each week, regardless of what the actual stock price is.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Premarket: Apple is red - 'I guess it was just wishful thinking'
  • Greg Lippert on Peter Thiel puts Steve Jobs and Elon Musk in the same sentence - 'Copies of whatever apple released?'
  • John Konopka on Evercore is sticking with its $380 Apple target - 'Joseph, for what it is worth, that is how I guessed the price on April 1 so closely. I took the previous year’s price and divided by 0.8. I figured 20% would be a healthy rate of growth for the year. In addition to the products announced this week, and the recent iPhone 18 and the Duo we can look forward to the M7 family coming out next year, and the regular iPhones coming in the spring. And maybe a little more.'
  • Joseph Bland on Evercore is sticking with its $380 Apple target - 'IMO, $350/share can be taken as now. Over the last 6 months, AAPL is up 22%, over 1 year up 29%, over 5 years up 132%, and over the last decade up 1,121%. To climb to $380/share in the next year, Apple would go up (380-347=) $33/share or (33/347=0.0951) 9.5%. That’s a pretty darned conservative estimate for future value growth, IMO. If we assume a more likely 20% increase a year out (barring black swans), that’s (347X1.2=) $416.40/share….'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Evercore is sticking with its $380 Apple target - 'Looking at the snippet of the note that’s provided, Apple is protecting its margins and market position by responding to the needs of enterprises and consumers and delivering Macs tailored for the AI era. From home, to office to schools, Apple is broadening the reach of its products and services. This not only widens the company’s economic moat, it raises the barriers to competitive entry into Apple’s core markets. The fact that Apple maintains pricing power in its product markets is suggestive of attractive gross margins in FY2027 and rising net income for the fiscal year.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Evercore is sticking with its $380 Apple target - 'In a note dated for Saturday, October 24th CFRA also reiterated its $380 price target on the shares and the firm’s Buy recommendation.'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is red - '@Bart Thanks. And we have the elections on Tuesday. Hard to say how that affects the markets. And we still have an ongoing debacle in the Middle East. In the US we focus on our own problems but we could see several governments, including the House of Saudi Arabia, fall in the near term.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Yep, AAPL closed at $347.10, up 3.19 and 0.93% on moderate but still below average 33.4M shares. AAPL is now up 2.24% for the last 5 trading session, and 27.7% YTD. Back to $5.07T but NVDA has staged a small rally so the delta is now around $200B in market cap. No matter. We’ll see how the AI and tech crowd holds up after earnings from Google, Amazon and Microsoft this week, Apple next week, and NVidia mid November are announced.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Thanks, John! Volume per Apple News is 5.8 M less than average at 1:20 PM CA time, with market cap at $5.07 T and valuation at 39.8. Close enough to 40 for my book….'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Looks like Apple closed up at $347.10, just under the ATH. Moderate volume ~33M.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'It keeps getting rottener and rottener, Greg. https://apple.news/Apat-pVi_RDi213cArYUAcQ So a week before National elections ICE is picking up “suspects” and releasing them with zero resources far from home. I guess that’s one way to keep them from casting a vote…. If you are an American citizen and can’t vote because of this, then there should be a class action against wealthy donors to the Republican Party for enabling this kind of treasonous activity. IMO.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple's iPhone Duo: Scratched, peeled, dusted, burned, bent, broken - '“if we assumed 20 to 500 real failures, and given 500,000 to 1,000,000 already given out or in users hands by now, what is the failure rate and how is that against normal accepted levels or expectations?” “Under your scenario, the math reveals a massive gap depending on where the true numbers fall. In the high-end projection, the numbers cross into dangerous territory for a brand-new device category. 1. Calculating the Failure Rates The mathematical breakdown across your parameters looks like this: Scenario -> 500,000 Units Shipped -> 1,000,000 Units Shipped 20 Failures -> 0.004% (40 ppm) -> 0.002% (20 ppm) Versus 500 Failures -> 0.100% (1,000 ppm) -> 0.050% (500 ppm) (Note: ppm = parts per million) 2. How This Compares to Accepted Levels To contextualize these numbers against typical consumer electronics standards, we have to look at the timeline. These are infant mortality metrics—meaning they occurred almost immediately upon unboxing, rather than wearing down over a standard 2-to-3-year lifecycle. • The Baseline Standard (0.002% to 0.004%): If the true count is only around 20 units out of a million, this is a statistical non-issue. Consumer electronics factories naturally allow for a generic defect tolerance of up to 1% (10,000 ppm) over a product’s entire lifetime. A launch-week issue affecting 40 out of a million devices is considered incredibly clean and well within acceptable, random manufacturing variances. • The Warning Zone (0.05% to 0.1%): If the reality is closer to 500 immediate, catastrophic display failures out of 500,000 units, it changes the conversation completely. While a 0.1% overall return rate sounds tiny on paper, an immediate 0.1% failure rate focused entirely on a single structural component (the inner crease) within 48 hours of unboxing is incredibly high. The Hidden Risk If 500 units have already completely snapped or suffered maximum-voltage pixel blowouts right out of the box, it strongly implies a mechanical design vulnerability in the hinge’s alignment or support bars rather than a fluke assembly error. Because foldables endure thousands of physical stress cycles over time, an early 0.1% infant mortality spike typically indicates that the failure curve will climb sharply as the remaining 99.9% of users continue to open and close their devices over the coming months. This exact dynamic is why Apple was forced to issue a rapid public statement to control the narrative.” We will see if display damage and failures begin to climb if there is a consistent design or use error. One would think those demo units sent out to tech press and influencers for testing and evaluation, plus the 10,000 to 32,000+ would have revealed damage quickly IF it was going to happen. I’m sure Apple has most if not all failed devices under evaluation and steps already being discussed or implemented in manufacturing or assembly. Whether that requires a rework or simplification in the hinge or small component design is the next question and how long would that take to implement. Meanwhile production probably hasn’t been slowed down or sped up until actionable data has been determined.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple's iPhone Duo: Scratched, peeled, dusted, burned, bent, broken - 'More from my convo with Gemini: “…there are many more reports that could not be verified or included. The localized sample provided previously only highlights a tiny fraction of the initial wave of unique, distinct incidents verified by tech outlets monitoring the launch. The total volume of undocumented or unverified cases is significantly higher due to several limiting factors: Why More Reports Were Left Out • Massive Regional Drops: A high concentration of additional screen-cracking cases has flooded Chinese social media platforms like Xiaohongshu and Weibo. Because these platforms are heavily siloed and require localized verification, dozens of distinct user posts showing identical vertical or horizontal line clusters have not yet been fully audited by Western tech analysts. • The “Noise” Filter: Platforms like X and TikTok are filled with reposts, duplicate videos, and fabricated or simulated images designed to farm engagement. Sifting out actual standalone incidents from duplicates automatically excludes thousands of raw data points. • Silent In-Store Exchanges: Many affected buyers are bypasssing social media entirely. Reports from individual tech journalists and internal retail polls confirm that users are walking straight into physical Apple Stores and receiving “on-the-spot” hardware swaps. These immediate resolutions remain completely off the public internet record. Current Official Assessment Following the influx of reports, Apple issued a formal statement on October 26, 2026, officially acknowledging they are investigating “an issue impacting the inner display on a small number of iPhone Duo units.” Apple spokesperson Alex Kirschner confirmed that the defect manifests almost immediately—typically within the first few hours of unboxing and setup usage. If your device exhibits the physical resistance, hinge clicking, or bright horizontal OLED lines, Apple is instructing all users to bypass standard out-of-warranty paths and contact AppleCare directly for an expedited replacement.” ((If we look at 20 as a minimum number and 500 as a maximum so far, and estimate 500,000 to 1 million opening week sales or shipment, we get at best 0.004%-0.1% for 500,000 produced to 0.002%-0.05% for 1,000,000 produced. Most of these would be what is known in the industry as crib deaths or “infant mortality” as opposed to DOA or non-working on unboxing.)) “Key Engineering Terms for Early Failures • Infant Mortality: This describes a phenomenon where a product defect manifests almost immediately after unboxing or within the first few hours of operation due to manufacturing flaws, material defects, or assembly errors. • Dead on Arrival (DOA): A commercial term used when a device is completely non-functional the exact moment the consumer opens the retail packaging. • The Bathtub Curve: An engineering model that graphs product failure rates over time. • It features a high spike in failures at the very beginning (infant mortality). • It drops to a low, stable failure rate during normal use. • It spikes again at the end of the lifecycle due to wear and tear.”'
  • Greg Lippert on Premarket: Apple is red - 'They are burying economic data and the real state of the economy until after the election or as long as possible. The manipulation to try to cling to power is a travesty.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'I’m now wondering when AAPL will yet again split their stock. I think it is going to happen sometime around $400/share. Splitting it into 4 shares for every present share gets the stock to about $100/share, which will let folks with little to invest a chance to add a bit every paycheck without breaking the bank. Of course, $50/share would make it even easier, but adjusted for inflation $100 is just just not that much anymore.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's iPhone Duo: Scratched, peeled, dusted, burned, bent, broken - 'You can break anything if you apply enough pressure. Funny that influencers/bloggers never disclose how much pressure they apply, and how that compares to actual user pressures.'
  • Gregg Thurman on iPhone 18 Pro series up 3.1% from the iPhone 17 Pros - '”I gnash my teeth every time I read this statement. It is perennial canard. Most people don’t upgrade each year.” As do I. ”There are only 10 reasons to be in business. The first if to make a profit. The other 9 don’t count.” Revenue is the only measure of innovation that counts, as it reflects what the consumer thinks, not ignorant bloggers and talking heads.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'I have to say it again: Back in May, 2020, Apple’s buybacks first succeeded in forcing a profound revaluation of the company, taking it over a 40 valuation. Last year, it returned to that lofty valuation, and I said at the time to get used to it, because that was a fair valuation, and I expected it to return there going forward. Which it has, multiple times now. But if it actually is a fair valuation, then the much lower valuations in the interim years between January 2020 and now were hogwash, and Apple’s further anti-dilution buybacks were on average purchases of undervalued stock, which thus created an ROI to Apple’s long-term owners in exactly the same way that buybacks have been doing since 2013. And seeing that P/E ratio dip significantly next week is going to be an iron-clad indication that AAPL is still undervalued, and therefore is still a good buy for Apple and thus for long-term investors. I will grant that those early investors in NVDA had an even better ROI. But that said, they also needed to buy and hold that stock to truly get the maximum benefit. And in the meantime, buying and holding AAPL has not been doing too badly either….'
  • Bart Yee on Apple's iPhone Duo: Scratched, peeled, dusted, burned, bent, broken - 'I’m quite sure Apple has put 100’s or more partial and finished Duo units through various testing and destructive crash testing sacrificial type evaluations as bad or worse than this, utilizing standardized machine testing so as to document the forces, vectors, modes of failures, and issues arising from normal and abusive use, and at accelerated rates. This is all part of normal, typical, research & design, then prototype engineering, and then iterative industrial and production engineering as the design progresses towards release. Many get to see and discuss it behind closed doors, few get to see it publicly. These “real world” teardowns and literal Breakdowns are the public’s way to watch slow motion train wrecks, derive some sort of satisfaction in tearing apart the competition, and feeling like you’ve exposed Apple’s most secretive sophisticated and unsophisticated manufacturing techniques, design solutions, and of course, any design compromises and potential or real failures. They are what they are, small scale Roman gladiator matches where the gladiator has no chance vs the lion or knife, bull and diamond or carbide tipped horns vs matte finish and microthin glass and seals. It’s like watching an autopsy on a living patient, slowly dissecting them with clinical efficiency and disdain for the parts and organization. Why? Because it’s always been man’s desire to destroy and ask questions later than to design, plan, build and deploy, partly because the former can be something done quickly, condensed to a 10 minute video, and completely ignore with little acknowledgment all of the literal years of work behind getting it built at all. One thing I will appreciate in these JerryRigEverything and IFixIt videos is detailing the intricate miniaturization that Apple and others have done, the tremendous work of so many to literally handcraft devices like this, and the potential areas of investigation for Apple in these hinge -> motion -> glitch -> mis-movement -> part impingement or protrusion -> penetration of glass layer -> Display damage and failure. There are some who have speculated users pressing down on the inner display with a thumb while folding/closing the Duo from outside using external forces on the back side may set up the hinge parts for misalignment. Here’s Gemini with speculation and sources: “The Apple iPhone Duo display damage has been reported during both opening and closing actions, often accompanied by unusual physical resistance, a clicking/crunching sound, or a snap in the hinge mechanism. Key Details of the Hinge and Display Failure • Closing: Some users and teardown analyses note that applying pressure directly on the center or hinge area while closing the phone can cause a thin internal metal support bar or link to stick, fail to drop properly, or get jammed. • Opening: Other owners report feeling resistance or hearing an unexpected noise while folding or unfolding the device, with the actual screen artifact or white line cluster appearing right as or after the phone is opened back up. • Root Cause: Investigations by iFixit and teardowns suggest a mechanical misalignment or a thin hinge component shearing/catching underneath the flexible OLED matrix, putting direct localized pressure on the panel.” So far as I and Gemini can find on the web or social media, there are 5 clearly user documented cases, 1 in Australia, 1 in UAE during setup, 1 in UK, and 2 in the US. They have all been resolved for the owner at local Apple Stores. There are numerous reports from China but as yet tech press and others have been unable to verify and confirm as actually true or whether Apple has addressed them. Previous checks suggested 10-20 cases potentially, the tech press is trying as well to track and verify.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Peter Thiel puts Steve Jobs and Elon Musk in the same sentence - '”My gut tells me that the context of his comments come from a point of view of who has invented more in terms of technological advancements. We aren’t talking about Jobs or Musk, we’re talking about Cook. Cook’s contributions all occurred AFTER Jobs died. No one in the Android marketplace has developed more Fortune 500 sized products than Apple under Cook’s leadership. Apple’s signature product is the iPhone. Not even Jobs launched anything approaching the iPhone success. Android launched copies of Apple’s NEW technologies, none of which approached Fortune 500 status.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Meanwhile, between a huge increase in net income and continued anti-dilution of stock, Apple’s Price/Earnings Per Share ratio is about to take another big drop next week, yet again leaving tons of blue sky to raise the stock price without going over a 40 P/E. Yet another chance to join us on the Good Ship Apple’s deck chairs, folks….'