Gregg Thurman on Marques Brownlee: Apple's new laptops are putting Microsoft on notice - '”overcome the emotional “sunk cost” Several here have commented on the inclusion of a serial port RCA jack on the Neo. No other Apple product (that I’m aware of) uses RCA jacks as an interface port. Everything is USB because, well it’s better. But if you have headset you like, you don’t have to upgrade it to get Mac laptop. That makes switching even easier and less expensive than just a few weeks ago. Every day the beauty of the Neo strategy sends shivers down my spine, and fear among Windows purveyors. A 1% change in market is going to be worrisome to Windows manufacturers. A 2% or 3% change is going to be devastating. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 5% change in the next 2-3 years. Windows consolidation in 3-5 years? Entirely possible.'
on Steven Levy: Apple is allergic to nostalgia - '“Cook laughed merrily at the idea…., “there will not be an agentic kind of model on there.” Sometimes I think people treat AI as if it’s some force in our atmosphere trying to break into human reality and eventually take over. AI is only used by humans, when AI can accomplish goals that humans want to accomplish. If and when AI cannot do what is desired, one can and will simply hit the delete button. I believe that Apple is taking its time to make sure that the way it uses AI is consistent with Apple’s character and goals. AI doesn’t determine those goals. That’s up to Apple Mgmt..'
on Marques Brownlee: Apple's new laptops are putting Microsoft on notice - 'The best that he can say about the Microsoft OS is that it is “functional.” It’s easy to imagine how the Neo price point could overcome the emotional “sunk cost” of users who’ve put up with PCs for years–along with the irritating raves from friends about their Macs–that the dike will at long last burst.'
on Steven Levy: Apple is allergic to nostalgia - 'My favorite line: “That of course presumes that superintelligence doesn’t totally rearrange reality in the next 50 years, let alone the next millennium.”'
on Steven Levy: Apple is allergic to nostalgia - 'I completely agree with two points in this article: 1. It’s critically important that Apple leadership not be sentimental or nostalgic about its past and past products, and continue to focus on constant improvement and tracking, chasing, and pushing mid- and long-term tech revolutions and replacement; and 2. Sam Altman can definitely be replaced with an AI, mainly because the quality of his vision, decision-making, leadership, and approach to business is similar in the quality of flaws and deception inherent to the output of OpenAI’s LLM. The human factor will always be a critical necessity, when it comes to leading and overseeing any organization that it attempting to do truly significant things.'
on In the big tech free-fall this week, Apple stood out - 'I have been thinking that for a while. Outside forces have held Apple down. They should never have fallen from the 280’s given their momentum and product mix. I’ve even put my $$$ where my mouth is and lost.'
on In the big tech free-fall this week, Apple stood out - 'CAPEX: Great in boom times. Not good in down turns. Apple wins. META created their own special hell with a business that relies on exploiting the users. AAPL, at 29 Forward PE, looks attractive. Caveat: The war and Apple entering it’s quiet period, work against the stock near term.'
on Wedbush's Street-high $350 Apple target is nearly $100 above the share price - 'Imagine for a minute the Trump economy if it weren’t for the AI trade. We would have been in recession 6 months ago. Or imagine how the economy would have hummed along if it weren’t for the tariff war (consumer tax) and now a new forever war stoking inflation. Btw- read a good analysis recently that there are finite resources to rebuild oil and gas infrastructure, and that you reach a tipping point where new damage grows repair time exponentially (months to years). We are on that precipice now.'
on Steven Levy: Apple is allergic to nostalgia - 'Apple’s “direction” was set by Steve Jobs in his first tenure, then honed in his second. We have seen computers become a bigger and bigger part of our lives, in no small measure because of the direction Apple is laser-focused on, where the user is front and center. That the company is astoundingly profitable is completely down to it’s focus on the user, period. So why should that change over the next half-century, or ever? Apple fights out of the user’s corner. And as long as they continue doing that, they will “live long and prosper”. And so will Apple’s long term investors. (Back to lurking.)'
on Mark Gurman: Apple granted iPhone designers anti-poaching stock options - 'Exactly this is more “hey great job here’s something extra” size options. Not “oh lord please don’t leave” size options.'
on KeyBanc cheers Apple's monetization push - 'I’m totally fine with ads in my Apple News+. I just scroll past them. Big deal. I’d also be fine with ads in Apple Maps. (Sadly, we use Google Maps almost exclusively, though, for Car Play navigation — and even for Street View when scoping out locations at home…as Apple’s “Look Around” feature has big gaps in coverage.) Not sure exactly how ads in Apple TV will be implemented but that, too, will likely be something to which I would not object. The major upside, of course, will be the incremental increase in Services revenue, which may, over time, prove to be significant.'
on Wedbush's Street-high $350 Apple target is nearly $100 above the share price - 'Then a change of administration and an ill informed Trade & Tariff War with a poorly thought out assault on our biggest trading partner, decimating markets and bankrupting farmers, enhancing and growing competitors nations, and for what? Little to no change in trade deficits and tariffs, because US companies embrace cheapest sources of their products. And then there was the bungling of the pandemic, undermining of science, watching over a 1.2 million Americans die, 3.6M made ill, and still dealing with its aftermath. It took another administration 2+ years to deal with post pandemic upheaval and again, restabilization of the US and world economies, hand that off to the current administration who has grandiose plans to lower food prices, lower oil and gas prices, bring back manufacturing, and raise American prestige back from the 2016 administration’s debacles. Or at least piss off everyone equally and don’t care. Are we winning yet? No? Meat prices doubled, grocery prices STILL high, tariffs still a 10-20% unrepresented tax on consumers, gas prices and oil at 3 year highs, (was $3.72 avg. mid March, highest since Oct. 2023, now AAA reports $3.97, vs 1 yrs ago $3.15, a 26% jump) above the previous administrations, world oil, gas, helium supplies disrupted, another war a republican administration has started to deflect from domestic or political issues with no exit strategy or clear outcome in sight, plus billions in unfunded military expenditures adding to already rising national debt yet again, etc. etc. etc. All again to pummel markets, transfer wealth to rich players (follow the money and the grifting) while the average family sees their nest eggs shrink, their buying power cut, and personal freedoms curtailed if you’re not the right group. AAPL has suffered time and again under these situations, yes, some of it their own doing, but more externally than their business models and successes would imply or result, especially recently. Today, by dropping below $250, AAPL is now approaching -14% down from all time highs reached twice in the last 2 years despite being “late to AI or not spending enough” while now market seeing that maybe Apple’s strategy got it right. The Nasdaq has already entered into -11% Correction territory, as is the Dow too -10% exactly and S&P500 -9%. The only solace is that 2024 AAPL went from $223 to dropping to a $174 April low when Tariff War was restarted, so our 1 year YoY comparison will still look good, yay! /s We were told Repubs want less government in our lives yet it appears this admin wants government to run our lives, to intrude in and dictate our behaviors and actions, how we can vote, and to directly affect our and our investments’ financial well being as some form of blind loyalty, egotistical dictatorial control and patriotic strutting.'
