Daniel Epstein on Counterpoint cuts 2026 smartphone forecast. Apple and Samsung will be fine. - 'I think you have nailed it Fred! I doubt the whole argument that Ram costs will change prices overall. On the premium phones it is unlikely the potential price changes would be enough to slow sales. There might be other reasons for slowing sales and rotation from one manufacturer to another but I think this particular issue should be a short term problem. When commodities are in short supply the market usually responds with increased production eventually leading to enough supply or even over supply. I could see those “others” who are barely profitable or worse deciding not to continue competing but people will still need devices so some other manufacturer would likely pick up the slack. I think phone demand and price sensitivity is not precisely correlated. Profit and revenue maybe.'
on Counterpoint cuts 2026 smartphone forecast. Apple and Samsung will be fine. - 'Wait. Are they saying CY 2026, iPhone sales drop by 2.2%? Hey team, y’all doubt it too? Chime in.'
on Counterpoint cuts 2026 smartphone forecast. Apple and Samsung will be fine. - 'Demand for used iPhones always exceeds supply, that’s why iPhone retains so much value. A boom in used iPhone sales will be caused by a boom in new iPhone sales. Ironically, demand for used iPhone 16s will be higher than it was for new iPhone 16s.'
on As Roomba's iRobot was going bankrupt, its co-founder was talking to the New York Times - 'Not to mention his “I need more control so nobody can remove me after I’ve built a robot army.”'
on Counterpoint cuts 2026 smartphone forecast. Apple and Samsung will be fine. - 'Hi, David, I have a few minutes to respond while waiting for an appointment: People are generally hanging onto their existing smartphones, so yes, demand is increasing. But supply of non-iPhones is decreasing as a result. Meanwhile, the affluent (i.e. the source of “used smartphones” ) are demanding iPhones over Androids. Ergo, yes, I expect there will not only be a boom in used iPhones, the demand will surpass the supply, driving up the prices. More inflation, of course, which is directly down to the “Trumpites” and their “policies” – if you can call them that. More like fumble-fingered clods, IMO….'
on Counterpoint cuts 2026 smartphone forecast. Apple and Samsung will be fine. - 'Maybe, but even used iPhones don’t play much in the primarily impacted low end market. Still, it might have some impact on the mid level.'
on Apple joins Trump's 'Tech Force' - 'More importantly, what’s the agenda? Accelerate AI for… better surveillance? I don’t trust the POTUS any farther than I could throw him – which ain’t far.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Whatever the Fed does, monetary policy is really “the tail” in this macroeconomic story. “The dog” is the larger economy. There has been no net job creation since April. Unemployment is now at 4.6%, the highest it’s been in 4 years. Wage gains are slowing and failing to keep up with inflation. Those Americans who are struggling now face increased healthcare costs and reduced SNAP due to policies of the Trump administration. Tariffs have raised the cost of many things people want and need. And yet the policy has failed to achieve its chief goal. Employment in US factories has been declining for months and continues to do so. This is macroeconomic policy failure across the board. All of it predictable. All of it predicted by leading economists across the political spectrum. There is no trickier an environment in which to be a Fed governor. Which poison do you prefer? Reduce short-term rates to stimulate demand and you add to inflation. Increase rates to dampen inflation and the economy slows further. Is this economy “great again”? It does not feel that way to me.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'As a very happy Ford Lightning owner this is very sad news. Two reasons they had to do this. 1) The administrations hostile policies toward EV’s and renewable energy in general. Solar tax credits also end Dec 31. 2) People who love trucks like the F-150’s were the last people to embrace EV’s (mostly).'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Hopefully Ford does what they are saying and puts range extending engines into a lot of their former EV’s.'
on Apple joins Trump's 'Tech Force' - 'nothing ever gets done with him … it’s just for show … just a photo op or a dinner or a press conference, but absolutely no results … just a waste of time for CEOs who should be doing their jobs …'
on Counterpoint cuts 2026 smartphone forecast. Apple and Samsung will be fine. - 'Could this spark a boom in used iPhone sales?'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Index futures remain in the red heading into today’s opening bell. In morning news the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6% in November. This supports the Fed’s newly-styled QE and its cause to revisit the Fed funds rate in January. Apple dropped $4.17 per share on Monday and in pre-market trading is off another $0.64 at $273.47.'
on Apple joins Trump's 'Tech Force' - 'It does sound like a good idea, but I don’t think it gets beyond a press release and a photo op.'
on Apple joins Trump's 'Tech Force' - 'I don’t see why this might not be a good idea (better than a bunch of Elon’s kiddies taking over). The question will be who leads them and what value they can bring and what problems are solved.'
on Evercore: Ten days before Christmas, iPhone lead times are expanding - 'My understanding is it’s the quoted delivery time or window that is from the Apple online store or, more comprehensively, delivery times quoted from aggregate carriers’ online stores, because a majority of US customers buy their Apple iPhones from carriers and their promotions. As for deliveries being slowed or affected by being closer to Christmas, it may have a role but considering all major transport carriers are working overtime to get stuff delivered plus count Apple as a major customer, they will do their best to get products delivered in time.'
