Gary Morton on Japanese developers line up for free rides in the Apple App Store - 'If Apple could personally charge Gonzales-Rogers for the lost revenue that her angry and inappropriate ruling has caused, I bet the next step in the legal process would have been done months ago. As it is, things are moving at the speed of civil law. Something that seems to move about as fast as nearly frozen molasses.'
on Japanese developers line up for free rides in the Apple App Store - '“ Apple says that this is the cost of doing business and the result of avoiding the App Store that they’ve built to streamline sales. The company believes they are owed something from every developer that distributes apps in its ecosystem, whether it’s using the App Store or payment processor, or not.” Um, no, there is no belief, there is precedent in the business world, in the software world, in general business models around the world, at least for businesses that wish to make revenue and profits from all their hard work done and continuing to be expended. The brick and mortar Store examples, the eBay & Amazon platform and sellers (and now shipping) fees, even the Epic Game Store and its fees, cable and streaming networks cost of ads to reach their subscribers example, etc. etc. etc. are all examples of commission or fee based platform monetization. As the COURTS in most jurisdictions have found, Apple, like almost all companies, has a RIGHT (under the laws of most countries) to ask for and obtain a fee or commission for: 1) the IP, expense, past and ongoing effort of creating its hardware platform, 2) same for OS software and payment platforms, 3) App Store maintenance, troubleshooting, App vetting, customer service (to both developers and users), 4) creating, maintaining and marketing the trust Apple has developed over the last 15 years (and developers coattail on), 5) continuing to make, at no inconsiderable costs in the tens of billions of dollars annually, a continuing, successful, expanding hardware suite of desirable and purchased iPhones that ensure developers have hardware and users to market to, EVERY SINGLE DAMN DAY OF THE YEAR, a hardware platform that is growing by some 30-50-70-100 Million new customers every year!!! 6) giving developers every opportunity to use these platforms, providing developer kits, education, support (in varying degrees of effect positive and negative) and ongoing marketing to monetize THEIR work on apps. 7) rightly or not, insisting on privacy, data, and security rules, culling out malicious behaviors, and stopping not so subtle attempts by developers to undermine the safety, privacy and reputation of Apple’s ecosystem, all for the purpose of lining a developers pockets further. 8) if developers cannot see and use Apple as a partner, as many have said before, they have the Google Play store, Huawei’s Harmony OS, PC’s, Consoles, etc. to write software for. There’s absolutely no requirement for them to be on the Apple platforms AT ALL. But if you want to have access to Apple users, you can try third party app stores, you could try sideloading, you could try all kinds of things to circumvent Apple’s requirements, but, IMO, you’ve just shown and proven to me why you just don’t get it and why I shouldn’t even bother to trust you. Because I trust Apple, with all its faults, a helluva lot more than I trust any one single developer, including EPIC (fail), Spotify, and others who grouse and gripe about “such a raw deal” they are getting. Without the Apple platform, they have a much much much smaller user base, a base that spends less, and less of a revenue generator. It’s not Apple’s responsibility to make your business model profitable if you’re not charging enough for your product (see Apple’s premium business model).'
on Japanese developers line up for free rides in the Apple App Store - 'The Apple consumers will all continue to use the integrated and extremely well designed App Store payment system since it’s seamless and protects their privacy. Leaving that very private and well guarded system will put personal data at risk. So now the next battle in this process is what amount of commission is Apple allowed to charge? Apple built this system and it’s ridiculous for a Judge who probably knows zilch or next to nothing about technology and the business of Big Tech to throw a dart and set the fee. The marketplace will determine the fee and all developers are free to go sell their “Apps” to Android through the Google Store. Or set up an independent platform, build it out themselves, pay those costs associated with maintaining their site, and market their creation to everyone who uses the web. Oh wait. That’s going to be way too expensive and time consuming. Let’s just all gripe, snivel, whine, and Bit*h about how Apple charges too much and hope a court will order Cupertino to let us ride on their backs for free.'
on Japanese developers line up for free rides in the Apple App Store - 'A third party will never make it easier or safer than Apple does. They just don’t have the incentive or resources to do so. They are only going to make pennies per sale and will never achieve scale, especially with smaller developers that only pay 15%.'
on Wi-Fi still down - 'Romeo Esparrago said: “The Sunnyvale Public Library was my Internet back in the day when I was a kid.” **Upvoted your very relatable comment…and small world, Romeo! My two sons, now both in their mid-50’s, went to Cupertino Middle School and then Fremont High School so we also spent some hours using the Dewey Decimal System and microfiche at the Sunnyvale Public Library. After relocating in 1987, my wife and I are now about a mile away from Homestead High School, which the two Steves had attended in the late 60’s/early 70’s.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Apple is currently up $5.12 at $278.80. There’s chatter about the latest Xcode tools released earlier this month. I’m looking for a breakout above $300 per share this spring and no later than WWDC 2026 in June. The major indexes are currently mixed at the noon hour in New York.'
on Wi-Fi still down - 'I remember using microfiche to research a term paper for high school English, and I ended up enjoying it way more than I expected. It took time when time wasn’t a deterrent. I was not computer literate till 1995, after enrolling in a PC WordPerfect course as a college elective. From there i was hooked… best decision I ever made. The semester before that I went to do some research on a PC that involved inserting a special CD case into a slot drive, which would extract the disk and read the data. I was so confused and ended up removing the disk from the case and inserting it into the drive, where it fell harmlessly to the bottom and remained inert. This scene from Zoolander would describe me back in the day… youtu.be/Sj5HdGjvXcE?si=QuAi6U9QtVCuX9MN'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Re the headline: “Dow Heads for Another Record as Jobs Take Center Stage.” …as Jobs Take(s) Center Stage. Now that brought back some great memories to start my day! 🙂'
on Japanese developers line up for free rides in the Apple App Store - 'No matter what Apple does there will be a small number of rich people in the courts looking for a better deal. The neverending story.'
on Apple tops the active installed base charts - 'Thanks Neal, all of these are reasonable estimates built on the tidbits that these research organizations put out, so really, they are all subject to some error. BTW, if we use Apple’s 1.491B as a reference, and that makes up 24.7% of the entire install base, that suggests the install base as a whole is 6.04B. 75.3% is Android or about 4.55B. As I’ve mentioned frequently, probably about 85+% of that is low to mid priced budget smartphones while 15% or less are premium Android models. IMO, this shows that while many consider smartphones to be a “mature” market, that is sales are not hugely increasing over time, the fact is, as users gain economic growth in their lives, a significant number will grow out of their budget Android status and consider other products over time. That means there’s a very good opportunity for Apple to gain more Android switchers / upgraders and conquest sales to go along with de novo first time buyers, and new to Apple users in many new regions. It’s a vast untapped market still in India, China and various Asian countries where economics are solid and a rising middle class. MIddle East, Latin America, and Africa remain in early stages of significant enough economic growth for Apple to have a significant market share, only the top 5% could afford iPhones at this stage.'
on Apple tops the active installed base charts - 'Bart, Upvoted. I looked at the chart only after I had done my calculations. Yours are better and more accurate. With 1 out of about every 2 phones sold by Apple as part of the installed base and still in use, it speaks loudly to Apple’s added value that so many phones are still being used. It would be interesting to see what that number is for Samsung and Android as a whole.'
on Japanese developers line up for free rides in the Apple App Store - 'Aggressive, yes. Convoluted, not as I understand it. The idea that courts will determine the commission mechanism (and “courtS” plural!) strikes me as “convoluted”. Each court will set rates for its own jurisdiction, and Apple will have to figure out how to implement that. And which jurisdiction is it, the jurisdiction where the developer is located, or the jurisdiction where the consumer makes the purchase?'
on Wi-Fi still down - 'The Sunnyvale Public Library was my Internet back in the day when I was a kid. I became an expert in the Dewey system. Microfiche was the closest to something that looked like a computer. Books, periodicals, newspapers, maps galore! The return dates on the borrowed books guaranteed my come-back visits. And it was all free. Sigh.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Robert, you identified Vertiv early on, prior to its enormous growth. Great call!'
on Wi-Fi still down - 'The library is best-kept secret these days, hiding in plain sight. I remember how busy it used to be during weeknights, when I was in high school. Now that activity is just a fraction of what it used to be. After graduating college, I found myself on a job interview where I was asked what a library would look like in 50 years. I said there probably wouldn’t be any libraries, given the explosive popularity of the Internet that sprang up almost overnight while I was in college. This interview happened 25 years ago, and so far I’m half-right. The library is a non-entity for most people, and that’s understandable given the integration with all things digital, but for me the library is timeless, a bastion of the old-and-new information exchange. I hope it never goes away.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Wow. I wish I had purchased more shares of Vertiv. The data center supplier is up over $37 this morning at $237. Very strong results is met with a strong market performance as we await today’s opening bell. The Labor Department just announced the economy added 130,000 jobs last month which is a pace of job growth few expected. The unemployment rate remained flat at 4.3%. Index futures are green. Pre-market Apple is up $0.63 at $274.31. .'
on Wi-Fi still down - 'Seems like a good place for my in-depth analysis of New York Post claim of liberal bias in Apple News: New York Post Guthrie, Guthrie, Guthrie, Guthrie Canada school shooting Trump supporter murders daughter after argument Mamdani blamed for homeless deaths from winter Joe Rogan blasts former guest FAA closes airport Apple News Trump DOJ attempts but fails to indict Democrats Canada school shooting FAA closes airport Guthrie Winter Olympics Ozempic helps alcoholics'
on Bernstein hikes its Apple price target $15 to $340 - '“Am I wrong in believing that Sacconaghi had retired?” You are not. The bot that wrote this must have missed the memo. I’m surprised the Globe & Mail picked this up. I’m surprised at myself for doing the same. https://www.ped30.com/2025/01/16/apple-toni-sacconaghi-retiring/'
on Bernstein hikes its Apple price target $15 to $340 - 'Does this mean that Rod Hall will be returning too?'
on He was about to return his Apple Vision Pro, then... - '”I am sooooo looking forward to using mine to watch Real Madrid Real Madrid is just completing a multi-million dollar renovation of its stadium. The owner has test drove the Vision Pro and stated he’d like to see it installed there. Says he (paraphrasing), “there are millions of Real Madrid fans that would like to see a game live, but can’t. The Vision Pro could be the next best thing to live.” https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6821120/2025/11/19/real-madrid-apple-news-sponsorship-documentary-perez/'
on Apple tops the active installed base charts - 'A little chart reading and interpolating: If Motorola is approaching 200M and Honor is already over 200M IB, the charts roughly says that’s about 3.3% of the total. Apple appears to have 24.6% while Samsung has 19.4%, together ~44%. If 200M is 3.3%, then Apple’s 24.6% is 7.45X larger, so that’s 1.491 billion install base, pretty close to the 1.5B most people are showing for Apple’s install base as of 2025, and as mentioned above, that’s just iPhones. Samsung would have roughly 19.4/3.3 = 5.88 x 200M = 1.176B, in line with Counterpoint’s estimate. Xiaomi comes in at 12% or 727M, Oppo 8% or 485M, Vivo with 7.4% or 449M, Transsion with 4.6% or 279M, Huawei with ~4.1% or 249M, and Honor with 3.6% or 218M. Poor little Google seems to have less than 1%, about 0.8% or ~50M And remember, not all active devices are equal. Given that 4 of every 5 Samsung devices are A series mid and low priced tiers, better than 80% of Samsung’s install base are these cheaper smartphones getting replaced every 2-3 years, especially because their OS and security support is limited to less than 3 years. Even among the Galaxy S models, the S21 (released in 2021, so 5 years total) just was removed from OS and security support, even though most users feel the phone could run newer OS’es. This is why Samsung has little ecosystem revenue and keeps pushing for some kind of recurring revenues besides hardware sales. ALL of the other Chinese OEM’s have ASP’s below $270, as far down $150 for Xiaomi and $100 for Transsion, so the vast majority of Chinese OEM install base are also mid to low priced budget smartphones, barely conducive to long term ecosystem or recurrent revenues, again pretty much dependent on hardware sales. Meanwhile, Apple told everyone to watch their Services revenues double by end 2020 ($14.5B) and now double again by end 2025 ($30B), now pushing $110B for CY2025, all because having an integrated ecosystem, App Store, large install base, tremendous breadth of services, and economically advantaged user demographic is something Apple planned for, executed for, and keeps happy with value for the money they spend. Apple’s install base is a very productive install base, Android’s is, well, a lot of hardware, a lot ending up as e-waste, and not terribly productive for their makers. ya, doomed I tell ya….'
on The New York Post accuses Apple News of left-leaning bias - 'I was referring more to a balance of sources (right vs left), and not to the content of those sources. I can understand why you would approve of the content of Apple news. My question would be, would it be acceptable to you if Apple was more balanced in regards to the sources of news, again not looking at the content?'
on Apple tops the active installed base charts - 'Upvoted. Yes your number are in line, closer to 33% per checks with AI. That’s why I’m a nut case about IB and “new to”, especially when analysts freak out about temporary lulls in unit sales.'
on He was about to return his Apple Vision Pro, then... - 'Before buying, I am waiting to see if Apple / F1 actually announce something in terms of dedicated content dedicated for the Vision Pro. The 2026 cars now have three camera bumps on top instead of the previous two, perhaps for better 3D capture. All speculation till the first race weekend, which is about three weeks away.'
on Apple tops the active installed base charts - 'I was looking up some other numbers. According to a website called backlinko in an article from January of this year, Apple has over 1.5 billion active users of the iPhone. Other sites say that Apple has sold a total of 3 billion iPhones over the years, as of last year. With active users of 1 to 1.5 billion, that would mean that 33-50% of all iPhones sold are still in use. If my math and numbers are correct. Those are decent numbers'
on Apple tops the active installed base charts - 'Just doing a quick calculation, if both Samsung and Apple each have a billion of the installed base and that equals 44% of the installed base, that puts the installed base at around at least 4.5 billion. How much over the 4.5 billion depends on how much over a billion is in the installed base for Apple and Samsung. It is probably higher since using this 1 in 4 number on 4.5 billion would put Apple’s installed base at at least 1.1 billion users.'
on In the 'navigation wars,' Apple Maps gains ground on Google - 'Khan’s work is always good – unbiased. I’ve never been comfortable with Google Maps it just never felt intuitive. (Not that Apple’s is perfect.) Glad they’re making headway. Do non-Apple people actually use Apple Maps?'
on In the 'navigation wars,' Apple Maps gains ground on Google - 'Exactly Gregg. What most people don’t get, is the value of Apple’s remarkable, sustained leadership and CULTURE (something some folks here now and in the past seemed to miss). The most basic example: Apple must be the only company left on Earth where I still consistently enjoy my customer service experience. Staying the course on Maps another great example. Let’s hope Siri and Vision Pro the next.'


