Recent Comments

  • Charles A. on Mark Gurman's been waiting years for a touchscreen Mac, but... - 'Hi, Joe. Here’s something that will give you an enlarged view as you type. It’s quite helpful for older eyes like ours. Go to Settings -> General -> Keyboards and toggle on Character Preview!'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's John Ternus: The Wired interview - '”And that’s the problem with frontier LLMs: they’re 100% interchangeable, so hardly anyone is going to be willing to pay anything to use them.” I don’t knowingly use AI. Very little interests me these days, outside of Apple/AAPL. My daughter, on the other hand, is interested in everything. She uses the free version of ChatGPT and pays $9 extra for image generation. She isn’t going to help pay down Open AI’s financial obligations. Oh, most of her AI usage is through the Museum of North Idaho. For that she uses AI quite a bit.'
  • David Drinkwater on Apple's John Ternus: The Wired interview - '“Maybe he’s just coached to play it super-safe at this point. I hope he start to show himself as more than just an engineer.” As an engineer, once again, I resent this formulation. Engineering is important! Being modest about its importance is not a sin. Tim Cook is a Manufacturing Engineering Wizard. But he’s very modest about that. Most people don’t think or understand that that matters, but look at Apple’s share value growth! It matters. Having a vision matters. Steve Jobs wasn’t so modest about that, but he *was* inspirational. I’ll happily leave my Apple shares in Ternus’ hands to see what he can “modestly” come up with over time. Apple’s first foldable iPhone and first Touchscreen MacBook seem like pretty good “modest” starts. Again remember, Ternus was deeply involved in the development of these two new devices. That’s why he is the new CEO. (And I sure know I’m not.)'
  • David Drinkwater on This week's Apple trading strategies (11/2-11/6/26) - 'I think there is merit to the endpoint of the video. I have more money on account of Apple than I can reasonably spend, but I still don’t go out and buy the new iPhone every year. If it works, I have no need to replace it. I’m finally going to buy a new MacBook Pro after ten years. Mostly, the current/old one works as Moffett suggested,. The biggest problem is that it is not compatible with the newest version of MacOS or Windows tools, so I am suffering with old versions of Excel when I count my cattle. All the same, I think Apple will be just fine. I’ve got an iPhone Duo on order. I’ll probably buy the 20th anniversary iPhone, too. I’ll buy the touchscreen MacBook Pro. The time is right for me to invest more in Apple toys.'
  • Bart Yee on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings - 'Michael said: “the Duo is more demand constrained than supply constrained.” I think you have this backwards. If the Duo was demand constrained, that would mean sales are limited by demand, not supply, and if demand were poor, there would be excess unsold supply, no delivery delays, and rumors of production cuts being needed. As far as we can see, Duo demand is far outstripping available supply, even with Apple’s attempts to increase supply this quarter and over time into 2027. And if Apple can sell every Duo it makes over the initial 5M ordered, then sales are supply constrained. Hopefully, Ternus will comment on that topic as well as squash any issues regarding widespread display and hinge problems.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's John Ternus: The Wired interview - '”And that’s the problem with frontier LLMs: they’re 100% interchangeable, so hardly anyone is going to be willing to pay anything to use them.” To the tune of “Where’s the Beef?”: “Where’s The Moat? It isn’t the LLM. Since ChatGPT there has been several start ups, all heavily funded with VC capital, each hedging their bets. It isn’t Data Centers, all funded with VC capital and debt far beyond cash flow breakeven. Say what you will about Apple’s on device strategy, but it’s the only “AI” strategy with a hardware moat, consisting of a critical hardware roadmap including custom server grade, desktop and mobile silicon, and a loyal, trusting, customer base.'
  • Bill Donahue on Apple's John Ternus: The Wired interview - '“What matters is, did we build something that they really love?” I’d say it’s more did they build something that people can really use, and that improved their output or experience. Do that, and it’ll be something that people love and use. And pay for. And that’s the problem with frontier LLMs: they’re 100% interchangeable, so hardly anyone is going to be willing to pay anything to use them.'
  • Bill Donahue on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings - 'Mid-range-ish on the revenue and high on the profit – meaning you’re betting on a significantly higher PM! Ballsy, Dan!'
  • Bill Donahue on Mark Gurman's been waiting years for a touchscreen Mac, but... - '“… but this launch offers little evidence of a bold new vision for computing” Honestly, this might be the dumbest thing he’s ever written. Did he really expect John Ternus to mark a “bold new vision for computing” by releasing a new platform or direction AND new hardware products only 3 months into his tenure as CEO? Profanity isn’t cool here, but I have to say it’s about the only language that sufficiently reflects my disdain.'
  • Joseph Bland on Daniel Ives: 'Ternus takes the mic' - 'Also, I’m thinking seriously about whether to go for a Mac Studio 528 purchase, financing it over time via AppleCard zero percent financing. In the meantime, I’m going to learn as much as I can about Open [Source] Weight models so I can literally build my own private “A[pple] I” brain.'
  • Joseph Bland on Daniel Ives: 'Ternus takes the mic' - '“Apple has said expanded server-side Apple Intelligence features will be offered for a fee in the future, and any detail on timing, pricing, or early usage would be the first concrete step toward the AI monetization…” Let me be the first to say it: Bah, humbug! 1. Apple has already monetized Apple I[ntelligence], or is the author not seeing all those unified memory Macs going out the door? 2. Whatever else Apple does to increase monetization of “Apple I” will not cost users nearly as much as the present LLM bandits are trying for – and will very nicely increase Apple’s net cash flow – which should be all that anyone is grading present or forward-looking AI business on at this particular moment.'
  • Joseph Bland on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings - 'Afternoon, Richard. I just read your piece over on Asymco One concerning “The Last Consumer Company”, Horace Dediu’s latest bombshell piece. Can’t upvote it there, so I’m upvoting both Horace and you here. My response was “Cowabunga!” to Horace’s latest. It dates me, but oh well… PED, you should DEFINITELY draw attention to this!!'
  • Richard Gayle on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings - 'I should have added, as the others above me wrote, that in the long run, this will be good for Apple. Its stock price may drop but it still produces things of real value that people need. It will be able to use its cash to not only sustain itself but likely gain market share. It will return better than ever.'
  • Richard Gayle on Mark Gurman's been waiting years for a touchscreen Mac, but... - 'To my mind, this laptop is a niche device, much like the Studio is, not meant for mass markets, like the iMac or mini are. It will be hugely useful for people who need a fast computer with a innovative displa. Touch is more an afterthought. Thus why it is not replacing any Macbook but is in addition.'
  • Kirk DeBernardi on Mark Gurman's been waiting years for a touchscreen Mac, but... - '“The company should be working fast toward what could succeed today’s Mac and iPad designs, even if that means bringing them together.” Oh Apple…please bestow upon us the next Jesus-device! Doncha jus’ love those pundits who postulate what Apple SHOULD do? Gurman often leads the pack. Nilay Patel from ‘The Verge’ is a close second. One can only wonder what collective mess of a product they would come up with on their own.'
  • Ron Fredrick on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings - 'Richard Gayle said: “I’m pretty pessimistic about the skittishness of the overall market at the moment.” **Upvoted your comment, Richard. And let me say, I’m *always* pessimistic about the skittishness of the overall market. 🙂 That’s partly the reason why my wife and I have stayed 100% invested in AAPL over the last 26 years. Thanks to 3 AAPL splits and AAPL’s remarkable performance over those years, our portfolio is worth 56.2 times its worth when I retired 18 years ago, in 2008. If the market reacts negatively to Apple’s earnings on Monday, and the AAPL stock price eventually reduces the value of our AAPL portfolio by half, we’ll still be doing much better financially than we ever expected to do thanks to AAPL/Apple! Many cheers to the AAPL Longs!'
  • Daniel Albaugh on Mark Gurman's been waiting years for a touchscreen Mac, but... - 'I don’t know, but I fail to see what is so advantageous about a touch screen on a laptop. Having to take your hands off the keyboard or trackpad to move or rotate something on screen seems so anti-productive. At this point, everything you would do with your fingers by pressing and moving around on the screen have been so much more efficiently implemented using a mouse or trackpad. Zooming, rotating, it seems much more efficient using the trackpad and/or mouse. But, what do I know. I just use my laptop and desktop machines to surf the web, spreadsheet, read articles on the News app, send emails, use thinkorswim, things like that. I don’t do graphics work or things that require much pinching and zooming. I remember back when touch screens first came out on Windows machines, I escorted a 3rd party vendor into our data center so he could make some changes to one of their pieces of equipment. He proudly showed me him moving around the terminal window with his finger. Didn’t see it then, don’t see it now.'
  • Joseph Bland on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings - 'I hope you are right, Richard! The Good Ship Apple will transform into Bathyscaph Apple, and sock away even more undervalued AAPL. Meantime, Apple’s net cash flow torrent will get even larger, fully funding the process that’s been going on for 13 years in a row now…. But that’s Donna and myself, 100% invested in AAPL, and with a decent cash stash for insurance. For so many others, it’s going to be an unmitigated disaster. And there’s not the slightest doubt about who’s to blame….'
  • Joseph Bland on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings - 'Thumbs up, Michael!'
  • Richard Gayle on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings - 'I’m pretty pessimistic about the skittishness of the overall market at the moment. Lots of lights starting to flash red, IMHO. I think it is likely that there will be one thing in an otherwise stellar report that Wall Street will grab and scream “the sky is falling.” Heck, it may say that Apple is doing too well and it can;t be sustained, “Sell!”. I think the next few weeks are going to be hectic. Hope I am wrong.'
  • Greg Lippert on Mark Gurman's been waiting years for a touchscreen Mac, but... - 'Those who cannot do criticize. He’s excellent at critique. Has he never studied Apple? Apple relentlessly iterates and improves and takes feedback from customers.'
  • Joseph Bland on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings - '“…I am not sure they support the present valuation.” Apple has now repeatedly returned to this valuation. As I just said in another Apple 3.0 thread, I am not convinced that this move is a “flight to safety”, since that move to a higher valuation started before the present move away from LLM AI valuations, before Apple Intelligence was revealed, and before so much other “good press” was generated by new Apple product introductions. Note that this high valuation will automatically be adjusted downwards the day after earnings are announced, simply because Tuesday’s EPS will spike as last quarter’s results are announced. I have spoken voluminously over the years of this natural phenomenon, but more and more traders and investors have finally begun twigging to it. I think of it as creating room for yet another ascendancy to the present valuation, and if things continue moving in this direction, it will continue moving the valuation goalposts farther out quarter after quarter just as long as that EPS metric keeps leading the way. Bottom line: Apple buybacks are NOT a gimmick!'
  • Joseph Bland on This week's Apple trading strategies (11/2-11/6/26) - 'IMO, Apple is not climbing in value because it’s a safe haven, but because it is worth every bit of its present value, and then some! But this damning with faint praise is typical, and other than being incredibly tiresome is actually just serving to allow folks to continue buying into a massively prosperous stock at a low price. And whether you’re playing the short run or the long run, that’s becoming increasingly obvious to even the dullest knife in the drawer. Well, maybe it’s because, like this character, they’re spoons, not knives….'
  • Joseph Bland on Mark Gurman's been waiting years for a touchscreen Mac, but... - 'Regarding Apple Intelligence and the touch screen: So I have big hands and bigger thumbs, and my left thumb is abnormally short, since half of the first bone was cut off in an industrial accident years ago. My sight is also going, and so on. And I usually type these responses into my 18 Pro Max (since I carry it with me everywhere) in portrait on the tiny keyboard because I have shoulder issues and it’s too hard to hold a phone in landscape and type, which means I type one-thumbed. Hence the reason so much of my typing is error-prone. But lately I have found that Apple’s Intelligence has grown so good that it error-corrects without my constantly being very careful to error-check my scribblings. How freeing! I imagine many folks who are one-thumbers like myself (btw, the term “one-thumber appears to be a new term, since it is not being seen by Apple Intelligence as being a proper spelling, requiring me to break my flow – interesting!), and will probably have tumbled to this much, much sooner than I have. Anyway, it does take some getting used to (Apple also automatically capitalized the first letter of a sentence, which also takes getting used to, btw), but I have to say that it’s these kinds of subtle improvements that are nearly invisible (but highly impactful for folks who stand to benefit from them) that put Apple so very far ahead of the pack! PS – Screw Gurman!'
  • Gregg Thurman on Mark Gurman's been waiting years for a touchscreen Mac, but... - '”But touch controls do have to be big enough to be easily tapped.” Touch can occur anywhere on the screen. The size of the Touch button is determined by the developer.'
  • Jonathan Rotenberg on Apple's John Ternus: The Wired interview - 'There is something I find unsettling about this. Steve & Tim really came from the intersection of technology & liberal arts. Steve drew heavily (and deeply) on historical analogies (like fractional horsepower motors, telegraphs). Tim talked about how MLK and RFK inspired him. John sounds like a bit of a robotic, one-dimensional engineer to me. (And I’m sure a phenomenally brilliant one.) I get how he could repeat Apple’s past effectively. But when he needs to reimagine things—or think in whole different ways—can he do it? I don’t discern a lot of character. Maybe he’s just coached to play it super-safe at this point. I hope he start to show himself as more than just an engineer.'
  • Miguel Ancira on Mark Gurman's been waiting years for a touchscreen Mac, but... - 'I hope he sold all of his stock, then.'
  • Dan Scropos on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings - '$2.10-ish on about $113.5B in revenue.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Mark Gurman's been waiting years for a touchscreen Mac, but... - 'Throughout the time period that I have been following what Eddie has been saying about Apple and its products, the stock has continued to rise. Devices are being sold. Services keep churning along. Another talking head who has also trailed off into the rearview mirror is the “Chartist” Carter Worth (Less). It appears that Eddie is headed down that very same path of irrelevance.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Handicapping Apple's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings - 'I’m thinking these numbers will be quite positive as Tim Cook wanted to pass along the baton at the right time. If they were going to be subpar, I believe Tim would have ridden out his CEO tenure by retiring at the end of the calendar year. Either way, the market has finally faced the reckoning that all of this Capex money being spent by everyone else on AI while Apple charted their own course, has now worked out extremely well for Apple as they’re the only company who went a different direction and continued to invest in themselves through buybacks as opposed to spending wildly and lavishly on a concept they can easily rent from everyone else. Or let the consumer decide as to which AI product they want to use for themselves on their devices. While everyone on Apple 3.0 understood that the rest of the consumer world would be using AI on their handheld smartphone and other devices, all of these talking heads analysts kept falsely claiming that Apple is so far behind that they will never catch up. Now that narrative has finally shifted to: “When will these companies begin to monetize this Capex and start showing revenues, FCF, and a profit from all of this AI spending?” Once again, Apple the Tortoise is the winner in this AI race. As well as the foldable phone market too. Looking forward to the 1:30 PDT earnings announcement on Monday. The call will provide conservative color at best with the emphasis being the Duo is more demand constrained than supply constrained. Also, has the Neo finally caught up to its extraordinary demand as well? Stay tuned.'