Gregg Thurman on WSJ: Sam Altman's AI math doesn't add up - 'OpenAI’s future is tied directly to the success of its IPO. Except for well heeled retail trader (who aren’t real good at research) funds, this IPO is going to be a massive failure. Is OpenAI going to be the first “AI” casualty. It wouldn’t surprise me. IMO, any “AI” initiative that requires investor funding is doomed. Only those being funded by a successful enterprise will survive, but even those are going to be seriously damaged by the financial burden they took on following the data center model. NVDA’s time at the top of the market cap heap is over. I give Jenson and Company 2 more years before its collapse.'
on Nate B. Jones: Apple has made a hardware bet against cloud AI (video) - 'My sense on AAPL Car is the primary factors were it became clear to AAPL mgmt that there was no competing against China’s industrial policy, China was going to dominate a dynamic market, and differentiation and reasonable profit in a long tail product such as automobiles while being subject to volatile China and US policies was too risky. The China electric car industry is fascinating from what I’ve seen on YouTube.'
on Nate B. Jones: Apple has made a hardware bet against cloud AI (video) - 'Great post. The question becomes, who will challenge Apple on its bet? OpenAI with its rumored phone? Maybe but it isn’t making silicon. Google? How about Nvidia–it’s already making pcs with its chips. Google and Nvidia seem like the most likely to challenge Apple in the race that Apple is trying to win. Maybe Samsung? Apple has the best installed base, obviously. So it would seem that Apple can win this. I’d be interested in Nate’s assessment (and everyone else’s)–who are the competitors, their strategies, and whether Apple will likely remain/be victorious.'
on Nate B. Jones: Apple has made a hardware bet against cloud AI (video) - 'Check his bio, posted above!'
on Big bet on Apple puts - 'I am now thinking that the large put position is a remnant from trades done long ago and only now noticed by the max pain software. According to my broker’s option chain screens, there are big out-of-the-money OI positions for this Friday’s (01-May-2026) expiration. That screen is showing an open interest of 21,942 in the 135 puts. AAPL hasn’t been trading near 135 in nearly five years. It is possible those contracts were initiated as LEAPS which became nearly worthless and it cost more to pay transaction costs to close out the position than to just let them expire.'
on Nate B. Jones: Apple has made a hardware bet against cloud AI (video) - 'Not fair that any one individual should possess this much intelligence and communication capability. Brilliant. Thank you for sharing it.'
on Nate B. Jones: Apple has made a hardware bet against cloud AI (video) - 'You know what? Apple wins either way. They’re ahead on computing power and battery life per dollar, an edge Ternus is likely to magnify. And If the future is cloud-based AI, Apple’s devices will run it better and more privately than its cloudy competitors, with better direct access to each user’s data. And for that Apple will get its cut without the massive capital outlay.'
on Ming-Chi Kuo: OpenAI's Apple killer is an AI Phone - 'Another entry in the overflowing “Claim Chowder” folder…'
on Ming-Chi Kuo: OpenAI's Apple killer is an AI Phone - 'Maybe they should just order a nice cup of tea. 42.'
on High praise for Apple TV - 'I did like Mythic Quest, but only after several failed attempts to finish the pilot. They placed too much emphasis on the funny moments versus narrative pacing, so it became difficult to develop any sort of rapport. However, each season included a background episode covering a particular cast member that was as good as any of the great shows out there. Completely out of left field, as if they actually cared for once. The COVID episodes were great, too.'
on High praise for Apple TV - 'I saw an article – I think it was a Bullwark author – about exactly that. Except it was regarding movies and how there was high demand but no supply for movies that were family friendly so you could take your young children out to the movies.'
on Big bet on Apple puts - 'go on YouTube and watch the Craig Federighi and Joz interview right after WWDC with the WSJ from June 2025. This is when they were a year late on AI Siri and watch it again… They were suppose to come out with AI Siri Light in Feb./March 2026. Nothing. Maybe they delayed with the new CEO annc. Craig F and Joz should be on the way out. If Apple has missed or is very very late to AI since Siri was 6-7 years ahead of everyone and this is what Steve Jobs spent his last year of life on then that is terrible. They should clean house. The stock should be 50%-75% higher than now if they executed.'
on High praise for Apple TV - 'Might try “Down Cemetary Road”, starring Emma Thompson and Ruth Wilson (from Luther), produced by those behind Slow Horses. It has a Rotten Tomatoes of 80%. There will be a second season. Very British synopsis: A woman hires a private investigator after an explosion occurs and a girl goes missing on the same night in a quiet suburb of Oxford.'
on High praise for Apple TV - 'Apple has mastered PG-13 and R rated TV shows and movies. I’m hoping that maybe someday it may feel brave enough to venture into more family friendly categories.'
on High praise for Apple TV - 'I can hardly keep up on the AppleTV shows I like. Overall quality blows everything else away.'
