Ron Fredrick on WWDC 26 preview: Mark Gurman empties his Siri notebook - 'Good point, Michael! 🙂'
on WWDC 26 preview: Mark Gurman empties his Siri notebook - '@Ron: Eddie has a better chance of being appointed to be on the Apple Board than invited any Apple 3.0 dinner gathering.'
on WWDC 26 preview: Mark Gurman empties his Siri notebook - 'I’m interested in coverage of Apple that can sketch out the broad outlines of the direction Apple will head in. Spoilers that come out just before the keynote are just that: spoilers.'
on Counterpoint: Apple grows as low-end smartphone makers get squeezed - 'Hi, Bart. Great info, and great analysis! Yep, Apple demand will increase. The 64K question is, how will Apple keep up? In all seriousness, Apple can’t just clap it’s hands and production magically ramps to match demand. Sure, it can ramp quality computers better than anyone else, but fast enough to match a real bump in demand for said high quality computers? And Apple will not build anything that isn’t matching their exacting standards. That’s the conundrum.'
on WWDC 26 preview: Mark Gurman empties his Siri notebook - 'Philip’s opening line and his take are dead on about the coverage by many of the reporters who concentrate in technology and Apple coverage. Gurman being a prime example. Congrats! “To dampen the joys of surprise and wonder, here’s everything he knows in bullets.” “My take: Doing his best to spoil the party.” Usually the Apple presentation holds a few surprises and descriptions which make paying attention to it worthwhile. Thankfully.'
on Counterpoint: Apple grows as low-end smartphone makers get squeezed - 'Regarding Samsung – I’m split. While Samsung did increase sales (4 to 6%) and revenues 4% in Q1, profitability dropped 42%, to just $1.6B USD. That leaves very little room before profitability goes negative in coming quarters. Remember that Samsung’s 2025 best selling smartphones are the A16 5G ($99 for 4GB/128GB to $135 for 6GB/128GB) and A06 5G ($136 if it was available in US) are truly budget products for most of the world. It’s very possible that with a 4% or more decline in sales, the bottom tiers of Samsung’s offerings will either sharply increase in price or sales will be curtailed by Samsung entirely. Could become very tough for them through the year. • “Among Chinese OEMs, the picture is sharply polarized. Xiaomi’s 19% Q1 decline was the steepest among the top five, with full-year shipments forecast to fall 28% as the company confronts a fundamental question about economic viability in the entry-level market. Huawei grew 1% YoY in Q1; one of the only Chinese brands to post growth, as the company deliberately held prices to gain share in the low-to-mid tier. Transsion, among the most exposed OEMs given its sub-$150 concentration, is forecast to decline 32% in 2026.” As for Chinese OEM’s, I think all of them will have trouble, including Huawei, especially those with more international exposure, unless they can get a lot more and cheaper memory supplied by their own Chinese memory sources, OR for the domestic market, the Chinese government increases their incentive subsidy amount or threshold to compensate. (That would help offset any price hikes, BUT could also help Apple even more because it puts more expensive Apple iPhone models into play. Now that would be fun!) From Gemini: “The primary Chinese RAM (DRAM) memory manufacturer is ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). Based in Hefei, Anhui, it is the largest domestic memory chip maker in China. CXMT makes LPDDR4, DDR4, and DDR5 memory chips. They represent roughly 8% of the global DRAM market, making them the fourth-largest memory manufacturer in the world (behind Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron). Mainstream Adoption: While they previously supplied mostly to Chinese brands, their DDR5 memory chips have made their way into some mainstream global hardware. YMTC (Yangtze Memory Technologies) supplies NAND flash memory. Apple does not currently use Chinese memory in its production lines. While Apple explored partnerships and even certified YMTC chips in the past, it suspended these plans due to US trade restrictions and geopolitical pressures. Today, Apple’s memory is primarily sourced from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Apple is reportedly exploring new business ties with both CXMT and YMTC to leverage cheaper memory costs and secure supply-chain alternatives, but formal integration into their devices is not yet active.“ Not for lack of exploration and trying. Assuming no back doors or security issues, maybe Apple could use Chinese sourced memory for only Chinese bound and sold iPhones? Per Gemini for the Chinese subsidy program: “The initiative, funded by ultra-long special treasury bonds, offers specific benefits for mobile devices: Subsidy Amount: A 15% rebate on the purchase price. Maximum Discount: Capped at RMB 500 (approximately USD $72) per item. Product Eligibility: Covers smartphones, tablets, smartwatches, and smart wristbands priced under RMB 6,000. ($887 USD) Limit: Consumers are typically limited to one subsidized item per product category.” “Average Chinese smartphone prices are expected to jump between 15% to 25% compared to 2025 tiers, with some mid-to-high-end flagship models seeing direct price hikes of 5% to 8%. This surge is driven by dramatic memory cost increases, where RAM production costs for some flagship models have risen by roughly CNY 1,200 to 1,500. The memory component crunch is forcing major adjustments across the Chinese market: Lower-End and Mid-Range Devices: These segments are hit hardest, as memory takes up a larger portion of the overall bill of materials. Manufacturers are seeing up to a 30% jump in production costs for sub-$200 phones. Price Adjustments: Brands like Oppo and OnePlus have initiated direct, localized price increases of around 5% on entry-level and mid-range lines (such as the A and K series). Flagship Impact: While initial premium devices have somewhat absorbed the blow, upcoming flagship releases are factoring in a substantial markup to offset the soaring costs of DRAM and NAND.” -> All of this makes Apple iPhones more competitive in price and desirability, why buy a Chinese knockoff or copy when now iPhones are the same or competitively priced? Same for any subsidy increase or increased threshold, say a 20% increase to RMB600 ($89 vs $74) subsidy and/or a 10% threshold raise to RMB6600 ($975 vs $887). Either could work heavily in Apple’s favor! However, no changes to the subsidy program or thresholds for 2026 or 2027 has been considered per Chinese news sources.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Good day and week for LiquidMetal (LQMT). Bought it last year on the rumor Apple might finally use their perpetual license for the hinge in the foldable iPhone. Maybe someone knows something definitive on an announcement next week.'
on Evercore takes a deep dive into Apple Intelligence 2.0 - '“ most analysts do not look at the future. It’s a ‘show me’ state of mind.” And I believe the reason is experience. It doesn’t take long before an analyst makes some predictions that turn out wrong, resulting in angry customers. They are being conservative, trying to survive.'
on WWDC 26 preview: Mark Gurman empties his Siri notebook - 'MMMV. (My Mileage May Vary.) I read this list and said “meh.” I’m STILL not interested in talking to my phone.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Although the major indexes are all red this morning, the advance/decline ratio on the S&P 500 tilts positive at this time. Apple is ahead $1.95 at $313.18. Coca Cola is higher by 2.68% this morning at $78.88 and P&G is up 2.47% at $144.25. This contrasts with Broadcom’s continued decline (off 4.64%) and Cisco’s performance (off 3.59%) as the tech sector in general faces selling pressure. This morning’s surprisingly strong jobs report dampened any remaining hope on the Street of any kind of interest rate cut this year. Let’s see what happens in afternoon trading as we close out the week…'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'An hour into today’s session the Nasdaq 100 hovers around 26,360, DOWN ~460, while AAPL hovers around $314.25, UP ~$2.80. Post WWDC action is going to be very interesting to watch. Enjoy the moment everybody.'
on Just in time for WWDC, Apple's App Store billings hit $1.4 trillion - 'Bingo. And, without us you’d have no market, no customers.'
