Gregg Thurman on KeyBanc downgrades Apple, sticks with $250 target - '” They went from nearly 22 billion shares outstanding down to ~14.5 billion.” Each publicly held share today represents a 50% larger equity stake than it did 10 years ago. And the investor didn’t have to do anything to get it. The neat part is that you can bank that annualized gain because of the consistency and duration of the buybacks, even during periods of slower revenue and earnings growth.'
on KeyBanc downgrades Apple, sticks with $250 target - 'Why does everyone seem to omit SBB? The Complete Apple Capital Allocation Matrix Year P/E Ratio Annual Buybacks ($B) Shares Outstanding (Split-Adjusted) 2016 13.9x $29.7B 21.88 Billion 2017 17.1x $32.9B 21.00 Billion 2018 16.5x $72.7B 19.82 Billion 2019 24.6x $66.9B 18.47 Billion 2020 37.7x $72.3B 17.00 Billion 2021 29.5x $92.5B 16.43 Billion 2022 21.3x $95.6B 15.94 Billion 2023 31.4x $83.0B 15.55 Billion 2024 39.8x $100.4B 15.20 Billion 2025 36.5x $96.7B 14.85 Billion 2026 38.1x $85.0B (TTM) 14.50 Billion What This Dynamic Chart Proves: The Massive ~34% Reduction: By pouring hundreds of billions into buybacks, Apple has successfully retired over 7 billion shares in just a decade. They went from nearly 22 billion shares outstanding down to ~14.5 billion. The EPS Distortion Engine: This visual perfectly explains why Apple’s valuation multiple (P/E) expands so comfortably. When you eliminate 34% of the share pool, your Earnings Per Share (EPS) jumps automatically—even in years where net net income growth is modest. Institutional Security: Seeing that steady, predictable downward slope of the red line is exactly why institutional investors treat Apple like an annuity, allowing it to comfortably hold a 35x+ P/E ratio today compared to the sub-15x ratio it had when it carried 21+ billion shares.'
on Apple Siri AI public beta has landed. Give it a try - 'What a great idea! 🙂 Can you use AI to create it? Legal issues?'
on KeyBanc downgrades Apple, sticks with $250 target - 'Interesting info Bart – thx as always for doing your homework and sharing the results with the rest of us. I asked Gemini a much simpler question: “What is Brandon Nispel’s track record?” Because to be fair, he could be consistently wrong about Apple but otherwise give sound advice on other stock recs. Anyway here’s the reply, or at least the part I think is important: Success/Win Rate: 50% – 56% accuracy on his investment recommendations. [IOW, about the same as a coin toss.] Average Return: Delivers an average return of around +3.5% to +4.2% per stock recommendation. [IOW, pretty close to the inflation rate – maybe slightly above depending on what year you want to consider. Not very impressive.] Target Accuracy: Hits his specified price targets roughly 62% to 73% of the time. [A key question for Key Bank – and Brandon – is how aggressive are his price targets? With +3.5 – 4.2% return on his pics, I’m guessing they are not very aggressive. Therefore easy to reach!]'
on Nitrozac & Snaggy on Apple vs. OpenAI - 'What damages do you seek from a company that operates at a massive loss, all the time, and which has been accelerating its debt accumulation? Maybe Apple should wait until after the IPO 😉'
on KeyBanc downgrades Apple, sticks with $250 target - '“ This rigid reliance on historical mean reversion” A perfect example of blinders.'
on Nitrozac & Snaggy on Apple vs. OpenAI - 'Open AI might be left with nothing more than a fig leaf after the trade secrets lawsuit filed by Apple. After reviewing their pleading, what jumped out at me was the fact Apple didn’t bother to include any unnamed “Doe Defendants.” That tells me their attorneys have taken copious care to marshal all of the pertinent facts with the specified bad actors and are all lined up ready to go have a trial.'
on KeyBanc downgrades Apple, sticks with $250 target - 'That seems correct, but if I were an institutional investor, I’d wonder just how well does the KFLD credit card spending data mirror a demographic I’m interested in. If it’s US only it ignores the international market. If it shows slowing when US spending remains flat or continues to show spending increases by Apple users (NOT the general public), then it doesn’t reflect on AAPL well, maybe only those utility or telecom stocks and companies. Remember, the data is only as good as the the data gatherers and the population generating that data. If it’s been consistently wrong or the analysis is wrong regarding Apple, I wouldn’t put much confidence into the data itself. Might work for other companies or retail industries, but tech, maybe not.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Volume today was a paltry 36.2 M shares. I’m going to go watch paint dry….'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'John: IBM ended the session down $73.16 or 25.51% at $217.07. Today’s drop pushed the dividend yield to 3.11% from 2.33%. The last time the shares traded in this range was in mid-May. I’m surprised but not shocked by today’s drop. IBM is in the software and consulting businesses. In the AI era both areas of potential weakness will get hammered by the Street on any hint of a performance disappointment.'
on KeyBanc downgrades Apple, sticks with $250 target - 'My 1-line “Natural Intelligence?” summary: People come to Key Bank for the data, not for the analyst positions. Izzat right?'
