Recent Comments

  • Ben Gepp on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'I tend to agree with your time frame (on spaceX), perhaps even 20 years? But the FOMO crowd will have likely bought in on margin or with money that’s not theirs(mortgage) and/or will sell prematurely if it tanks. So there is going to be a whole lot of hurt out there, while the billionaire set clean up handsomely. I bought into AAPL when it crashed in dot com. Had I waited 5/10 years I would have done nearly as well (I bought in at 52¢ xrate). So I think there will be opportunities but wait till the early investors have moved out and the stock settles into a realistic multiple. I would be very cautious with relying on Musk as a source of prognostication. He knows he can move the market with unqualified ‘tweets’.'
  • Darren DMW on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'On compound&friends (best podcast) they had this question a few weeks ago. Of the 3 mega IPOs if you had to which would you hold for 1 year and which for 10 years. I agree with the unanimous response. – Anthropic for 1 year. – SpaceX for 10 years. I think SpaceX has a massive advantage in lift and would like to hold a little for the long, long term. I will wait for the correction, but it will need to be severe. Anyone got any thoughts what would be a good entry price for the long term?'
  • Bart Yee on Indian farmers' wells contaminated by iPhone factory outflow - 'Now Reuters is reporting all is “well”: June 16, 2026 4:19 PM UTC Tata says India pollution board drops scrutiny of Apple iPhone parts plant • Decision will come as a relief for Apple supply chain in India • Tata says it has addressed all issues raised •State had warned Tata plant of shutdown risk Tata is key partner for Apple as ​it diversifies beyond China “Apple’s (AAPL.O) Indian supplier ‌Tata Electronics on Tuesday said a state pollution control board has dropped its scrutiny of the company’s iPhone components plant after it addressed concerns about contamination. The southern Tamil Nadu state’s pollution control authority had warned Tata of a forced ​shutdown unless it explained why government inspections found that wastewater discharge had contaminated open wells in ​adjacent agricultural lands, Reuters reported on Saturday. On Tuesday, Tata told Reuters in a ⁠statement that the Tamil Nadu Pollution Control Board had confirmed that the company “has satisfactorily addressed all queries ​mentioned” in the warning notice and “dropped any further course of action on this issue”. The Tamil Nadu state ​pollution control board did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment. Apple also did not respond to a request for comment.” “Tata is central to Apple’s (AAPL.O) push to diversify its iPhone production beyond China. The plant that faced scrutiny ​is located in Hosur, 25 miles south of tech hub Bengaluru, and makes back panels and ​other components for iPhones. Tata said in its statement that the pollution board has confirmed “that the reports of its own ‌analysis of ⁠recently collected water samples from Tata Electronics’ manufacturing facility in Hosur, Tamil Nadu do not indicate any contamination”. Tata added that it had commissioned an independent analysis through an accredited laboratory, the results of which indicated that all the parameters were within prescribed limits, and it submitted a formal response including those ​results to the pollution ​authority. The pollution control body ⁠had previously said Tata discharged wastewater into a rainwater harvesting pond inside its facility and that the pond overflowed to contaminate “groundwater in the open wells ​located in the adjacent agricultural lands”. The scrutiny followed complaints from farmers.” Excerpt From “Tata says India pollution board drops scrutiny of Apple iPhone parts plant” Aditya Kalra, Munsif Vengattil Reuters https://apple.news/AUGsgIa1aSs2bnVhUuOrFDA This material may be protected by copyright. Wonder if any “donations or contributions” changed hands with the board? Business as usual?'
  • Bart Yee on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - 'Calling it Siri-AI or “Siri-I” IMO doesn’t ring better than Siri 2.0 which would signify a new and improved Siri. However, Siri AI reinforces the AI or Apple Intelligence tie-in and branding so from an overall marketing standpoint, it’s a bit more consistent. The key really is word of mouth and social media testing declarations that says the new Siri (Siri Neo, Neo Siri?) actually works as advertised, is actually useful, and can approach the usefulness of current Chatbots, search engines, and AI assistants in things that are useful to fairly normal users, all or most done on device, privately, on the edge. Whether Siri is competitive in much larger and complicated workflow tasks is IMO less important or relevant because Siri can take the next step like power users would and invoke use of larger AI data center models and compute power, or users will simply access their AI of choice and expenditure.'
  • Ben Gepp on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - '$19B in *revenue* makes a $2.6T market cap? For Apple’s $4.5T market cap they generate $450B in revenue. So for every $10B in revenue that equates to $100B in market cap. So for SpaceX that kinda, crudely equates to a $200B market cap. In 15 days time after the stock has been pumped, to the point of bursting, early investors will vacate and the whole thing will implode leaving a world of hurt for the FOMO crowd. Cramer said this on X: Maybe it’s okay to you, but I would hate to see a meme stock–what SpaceX stock has become–walked to the size of Nvidia over a series overnight moves with no sellers. But that seems to be the goal. Maybe early release of those who want to go??'
  • Gregg Thurman on IDC: Apple's iPhone will defy gravity in 2026 - 'David, I guess it all depends on how great the demand is for data center powered AI. If a 4 year old iPhone can operate Apple Intelligence (on-device AI) then I don’t think the price premium to go iPhone matters, because Android can’t do it (for a number of reasons).'
  • David Emery on IDC: Apple's iPhone will defy gravity in 2026 - 'If the price differential for similar (high end) Android phones is $200-$400 higher, how many people will switch to iPhones? I’m sure there’s a postulated graphy showing “how much price premium will I pay to stay on Android?” And I suspect the graph would look significantly different for Windows vs Mac OS. The price differential will be greater (latest high end MS Surfaces went up what, 40%?) and arguably the cost to switch, particularly given Windows 365, is a lot lower (fewer apps for most people to migrate.)'
  • Fred Stein on IDC: Apple's iPhone will defy gravity in 2026 - 'This shows the genius of Apple to build great products that last and are supported for 8* plus years. Here’s the math: AI searches indicate that Apple dominates the used SmartPhone market, selling 230M to 250M units annually** (yes – on par with new iPhones) with prices ranging from $200 to $700. How is the possible? Eight years of useful life provides enough time for 3 owners. Some iPhones could hit the used market twice. *include security updates only for the last 2 years. **AI search – so grains of salt.'
  • David Baraff on IDC: Apple's iPhone will defy gravity in 2026 - 'OT but: with all the talk of no Siri AI in the EU because of the DMA, does that apply only to people who purchase their devices in the EU, or would it apply to me if I *travel* into the EU? It would be awful if I get used to using Siri AI, much as I’ve gotten used to using ChatGPT as a very fast way of searching with natural language, only to find that when I’m in an EU country it stops working…'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'You didn’t see me buying it.'
  • David Emery on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - 'Horace has referred to Apple’s approach to platform AI as an “Operating System for AI integration” and I think that’s a good way to think about it.'
  • Gregg Thurman on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - '” So we went back, and we rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground, rebuilt it from the ground up, on top of the incredible models which Amar just told us about.” That, and other statements, started me thinking (always a perilous thing) about the timelines to bring other capabilities inline. If I’m interpreting the aggregate of the statements above correctly, Apple replaced the foundation of Siri with an entirely new foundation, and delivered what we saw at WWDC about a year later. A year later. Remember that, it’s important. Thank you Bill, for pointing that out. System 7 couldn’t go any further. It required massive surgery, starting with a trash can, to fix historical MacOS. My firm did essentially the same thing with our only software product. It took 2 years to accomplish, but the advances after that came very fast, as we were no longer trying to change the color of the lipstick the pig was wearing. If the analogy is accurate, could this mean that advancements in Siri AI could come much faster than the press, WS and Investors have imagined? Considering what Apple accomplished in the year since it dismantled the original Siri, I’m wondering about the extent of the advances we will see by iPhone 18 announcement and release. I think Siri AI advances will come at an accelerated rate from current perceptions, and could become the dominant “gateway” to AI by iPhone 19. After that it will be game over. The only thing trailing in Apple’s AI effort is the media’s knowledge/perception of what Apple was doing.'
  • Bart Yee on IDC: Apple's iPhone will defy gravity in 2026 - 'While I agree on the “Unit market share” I don’t think Apple ever looks at it from that perspective, that is, market share is not the object; revenue, sales, and planting user engagement seeds is. The SE, and now “e” models have been Apple’s efforts to find the midrange offering that resonates with that price tiers’ market users and buyers, offering enough features, performance, tech, and most importantly, value, to entice new, crossover and conquest sales, in regional and emerging markets which are more price sensitive than developed countries. The iPhone 16e and 17e face a lot more direct Android competition, and many Android fans can rightly point to the 17e being “tech sheet” inferior on battery size (many Chinese OEM’s are claiming 5500 to 7500 mah sized batteries) rapid, high wattage charging, OLED/AMOLED higher refresh rate displays, some having multiple cameras, and of course cheaper prices (which may not be true this year), among other things. It’s not always clear to me that these outsized claims are actually true but price differential and not paying “the Apple Tax” is a reality. Apple can show the e uses the latest high performance A19 processor, more base RAM, and MagSafe, but only one general purpose camera. Real Intangibles are Apple’s proven long term support (6-7 years), physical Apple Stores support, superior long term resale value, integrated ecosystem. If Apple can hold prices, the 17e remains a competitive entry level model, along with discounted, refurbished, and used previous flagship models from the iPhone 11 through 16. The allure of a recognizable iPhone model exists, but having the least expensive although Apple model isn’t a flex for some. However, the e does provide a comparison for considering a self upsell to the base 17 which has proven a very superior seller in its price tier of $750-$1000 in almost every regional market it is in. IMO, Apple is aiming for value oriented and first time sales, sales for children and teens, and safe conquest sales, all as entry into the Apple ecosystem. If sales are good to decent, it will be doing its job, and “market share” will come. IMO, it’s absolute number of sales and revenue that interests Apple, not so much share, because Apple has always been a minority share in most markets due to price. Margins are whatever Apple deems acceptable for that model. And we all know that Apple trying to compete or offer in the lower midrange / budget realms of <$400 actually brings rejection from Apple users due to perceived “cheap” specs, materials, and execution, plus being even more out-specced and out-featured, even though most of the Android competition in that price range uses 2-4 year old and much less capable chipsets, displays, cameras and older RAM to save costs. Since margins are non-existent then and especially now, it’s not a market for Apple to bother with.'
  • Bill Donahue on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'Off topic, but it’s absolutely insane that Space-X – a company with $19 billion in *revenue* – now has a market cap that is greater than Amazon ($717B 2025 revenue; $77.7B 2025 net income) or Microsoft ($282B 2025 revenue; $125B 2025 net income).'
  • Bill Donahue on Indian farmers' wells contaminated by iPhone factory outflow - 'I love how it’s an “Apple” factory, when in fact it’s a Tata factory. Gotta get in the negative Apple spin, no matter what. That’s like saying that the huge contamination of aquifers and surface waters by a spreading tailings plume from the Exxon-controlled Kearl oilsands project in Alberta is the fault of Dow Chemical, because they are a downstream buyer of what comes out of the mine. Quick: name another tech company whose foreign suppliers haven’t broken environmental regulations? Obviously it’s a very bad thing to contaminate aquifers. But let’s not confuse who’s at fault. Or forget that regulatory capture is a massive problem everywhere in the world, including here in North America.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Citi sticks with its Apple Buy rating and $315 target - 'I’d like to point out that Options time premium for September and October expiries are increasing faster than historical rates. Sellers are wanting more for their contracts, and buyers are paying the higher prices. Longer range Investor Sentiment Is rising. I expect this to accelerate post July and October GUIDANCE. You’ll see it in AAPL’s multiples. Don’t be frightened by multiples exceeding 40. The formula is based entirely on trailing numbers.'
  • Steven Philips on IDC: Apple's iPhone will defy gravity in 2026 - 'That’s when I’m planning to upgrade.'
  • Bill Donahue on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - 'Let’s hope it’s as important to Apple’s future as when they decided to start over with their Mac operating system and replaced the classic OS with OS X.'
  • Gregg Thurman on IDC: Apple's iPhone will defy gravity in 2026 - '”that puts Apple iPhone shipments to ~235M” Which just barely exceeds unit sales of the iPhone 6. Since then iPhone unit sales have been hovering around that volume. Revenue gains have come from price increases. I have no problem with that. It should be noted that, with the introduction of the “e” series of iPhones, Apple appears to be making a unit share grab, just as its AI strategy looms large on the horizon. I think iPhone 18 is going to be a breakout model, just as the iPhone 6 was.'
  • Gregg Thurman on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - 'Kudos to Fred and David for brining their wisdom to the group.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Citi sticks with its Apple Buy rating and $315 target - 'Citi isn’t known for being the brightest penny in the drawer. ” has yet to wow Wall Street” Oh I don’t know about that. In the four sessions (including today) since setting its post WWDC low, AAPL has risen ~$4.00 per day. WS has recognized its mistake and is correcting it, albeit cautiously. My guess is that AAPL will have recovered all of its WWDC losses, just in time for the start of its July earnings run up. Further, the introduction of iPhone 18 and iOS 18 will further solidify Apple’s winning AI strategy in WS’s eyes. January prints exceeding $375 are well within reach. To that end, using left over cash from my purchase of 300 July $305/$310 Call Spreads, I purchased 16 more such contracts. All this was done since the creation of my $42,500 “risk” fund in April. Frankly, I’m having fun building a small stake into a larger stake. It’s kind of like regaining my youth, but with much greater knowledge.'
  • Fred Stein on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - 'Thanks David for citing an old but important source of wisdom. A big shout out for your point about culture. Apple does the right thing, not afraid to face the truth, however tough. I’m sure this permeates from top to bottom. We’re invested in Apple’s culture, one of the many intangibles that never show up in the balance sheet. Likewise, goodwill is not carried in the balance, nor ‘brand’.'
  • Bart Yee on IDC: Apple's iPhone will defy gravity in 2026 - 'If Apple iPhones declines -5.2% (from 247.8M in 2025) per IDC, that puts Apple iPhone shipments to ~235M. If that comprises ~22% of a smaller overall pie, the overall pie shrinks to around 1.068M from 1.270M in 2025, with Android taking most of the brunt from 1.0222B down to <830M, a big drop. Most affected will be the Chinese OEM’s who serve the budget <$100 and <$200 price tiers. Price increases will push ASP’s up a bit purely as a price shift. Even with price increases, Memory configurations may even shrink depending on what the makers can get away with performance wise, hampering even midrange models for AI, unless they feel their users will pay for normal 12GB RAM.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'AAPL started the AM in negative territory, but that got pretty quickly headed in the opposite direction. The knee-jerk options negativity is quickly being dispelled as more reasoned information filters out.'
  • David Emery on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - 'Fred Brooks in “The Mythical Man-Month” said “Plan to throw the first version away. You will do that anyway….” I do believe that Apple is a learning culture, unlike most of IT/software engineering. This is part of -taking the time- to get it right.'
  • David Wilson on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - 'Maybe it’s Siri’s daughter, named after her mother. She’s takin’ over the business as her mom retires. She has a much more advanced degree than her mother ever had, and her mother knows she will go on to do great things.'
  • Bart Yee on Indian farmers' wells contaminated by iPhone factory outflow - 'Tata and the Taya family have a lot of influence and leverage as a big employer and industrial power in India but its business practices and “ethics” leave a lot to be desired. Tata bought their way into Apple’s Indian supply chain by buying the Pegatron factory and building this one to expand production. Apple is not going to be happy about this negative PR and industrial waste issue which should be fairly straightforward to address. However, like in pretty much all countries, industrial coexistence with surrounding farm or residential areas never ends well without good regulation and teeth in enforcement, see AI Datacenters developments and aftermath as the most current examples in US backyards.'
  • Greg Lippert on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - 'It’s almost a crime to call it, Siri. Siri is dead.'
  • Fred Stein on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - 'He deserves a Nobel Prize to get so much done in one year. This is another in a series of disruptive innovations from Apple, such as migrating to Intel and then migrating to A/M series. All the above show Apple’s courage and conviction to make big bets on their vision. And still so many say ‘incremental’. No!. These are monumental. Apple’s iPhone and Mac continue to take share after decades – the competition just can’t keep up. The same will happen with Apple’s Personal AI.'
  • Roger Schutte on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'Barrons article on Citi analyst trying to will Apple stock price back above $300. Apple News link: https://apple.news/Apo8gTDTmQgOYnt5LcufP5g'