Romeo Esparrago on First in line for the iPhone 18 in Melbourne (video) - 'Very smart of to make a micro-music video ad of the iP18Pro by K-Pop BlackPink’s Rose (of hit “Apt” w/Bruno Mars). https://youtu.be/1WLqGs7c_yA?si=itcO6IB2o2n6v7_J'
on BofA: Sweet trade-ins are a tailwind for the iPhone 18 Pro series - 'T-Mobile had a great trade-in, but they want me to migrate to a more expensive plan. Like PED said, they get theirs in the end.'
on Evercore hikes its Apple target $15 to $380 - '1) doesn’t anybody recognize that if the duo sold as the same number of Airs, the revenue would be more than double? 2) in Q3CY2025, Apple sold, per Omdia, 56.5M iPhones. iPhone revenue for that quarter was $49.025B, giving an ASP of $868. If Evercore expects an ASP increase of 25-28%, that’s $1085 to $1111. That may not be for the full Q3 quarter. 3) even with flat sales in Q3, iPhone revenues could jump from $45.03B to at least $55-$60B, jumps of 22% to $33% 4) “old” iPhones upgrading means A. iPhone 11 2019 7 yrs B. iPhone 12 2020 6 yrs C. iPhone 13 2021 5 yrs D. iPhone 14 2022 4 yrs E. Anybody still using an iPhone XS, XR, X, 8, 7/7+, Mini’s and SE models. That’s at least 250M iPhones right there along with those who would upgrade at 3 yrs or less. 5) what this also means is there would be a lot of trade in or secondhand used phones entering the market, just like the iPhone 17 series has created. This means more used and potentially refurbished models hitting the second hand market, challenging cheaper-but now more expensive budget smartphones, especially in some price sensitive areas. I would not be surprised if many price conscious users decide to buy used iPhones instead of more expensive budget phones, assuming batteries are fresh. The install base keeps growing.'
on BofA: Sweet trade-ins are a tailwind for the iPhone 18 Pro series - 'Bought my 18 Pro Max today. And got this interesting wrinkle: $12 a month for a 12-month lease; $18 for a 24-month lease. Why? Because of the trade-in. If I remove the trade-in, the leases are $62 for the 12-month and $48 for the 24-month (what I expected. The longer lease should be cheaper). But if I add the trade-in back, I get the phone for only $12 a month … if I take the short time period. Looking at the deal, it is because they deduct the entire trade-in value from the cost but spread it over the term of the lease. So a $500 trade-in has the entire $500 taken in the 1st year. So less has to be financed in the lease. But only $250 each year when leased for 2 years. So sure, I’ll have to send it in and upgrade in a year, but getting the 18 pro max for $12 a month is a steal.'
on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'In today’s The Trader column from Barron’s, Alex Rosenberg suggests, “Stocks Are Resilient, Fairly Priced, and Probably Getting Ready to Rally.” https://apple.news/ATnqAZimSQwW1t4JOOEomuA Personally, I expect equities to continue to rise as long as earnings growth remains strong. That doesn’t mean share prices go higher in a straight line.'
on Gene Munster: Apple splits the difference - '“Apple’s recently launched iPhone 18 is seeing “muted” initial wait times in major global markets for the technology giant’s first foldable smartphone, UBS Securities [David Vogt] said in a note e-mailed Friday.” There you are, David, right on cue this morning. Vogt, one of the perpetual AAPL low-ballers currently has a Hold rating with a $296 target. No surprise. He also seems to think the Duo’s price may cause problems with sales. “Sell” rating forthcoming'
on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'Yes. Price includes GST of 10%. Aus consumer law says a device must be effective for the term of its reasonable useful life. Apple has taken that to mean 2 years for most of their products. Apple’s explicit warranty is 12 months but they honour consumer rights and then some. Bring in a 25 month old product and say you noticed something wrong after 23 months and if you aren’t rude you might get your product replaced on the spot. Technically these laws apply to android devices too. But as many androids are bought in supermarkets, small shops, Amazon etc it is too difficult to get a phone replaced 2 years later, so I assume they are just trashed. So yes Aussies pay a bit more than just the exchange rate and gst but they get Ritz Carlton service at an Apple Store and longer device life. For me the extra money of buying in Australia is a no-brainer.'
on Gene Munster: Apple splits the difference - 'They’ll say “Apple is doomed. They mis-managed not just the demand and supply chain for the Duo, but also the scalability of their website.” There is NO SCENARIO where Apple wins with a lot of those people…'
on Gene Munster: Apple splits the difference - 'What will all these analysts write once the Duo is not only sold in seconds, but the web site crashed due to overwhelming demand. My gut tells me that Apple has been preparing for an order onslaught of these Duo devices and have produced far more than anyone is predicting will be sold. I still remember all the articles mocking the Apple Air Pods as: “Nobody will want to be seen walking around with Q-Tips in their ears.” How did that prediction turn out? About as well as Apple entering the streaming wars will be a disaster!'
on Gene Munster: Apple splits the difference - 'Upvoted. I hope Apple keeps offering low-end models, even if they delay upgrades right now due to memory shortages. Meanwhile, used iPhones range in price from $90 to $850 (per AI) and account for 150M units annually.'
on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'Closed red, as expected, but only about 0.4%. For a Triple Witching day, that’s danged good! And volume as I type is about 67 M, which is actually decent, and definitely contributed to AAPL not getting railroaded by options houses trying to lock in their Max Pain, ie, maximum profit.'
on Gene Munster: Apple splits the difference - 'Just adding my 2 cents: ”Few people have analyzed why Apple has done this” What if Apple took a long at iPhone sales, and discovered that the more expensive models were expanding and the non-Pro models were shrinking. Needing production capacity for the more expensive Duo, Apple decided to delay non-Pro deliveries. Could this be a signal that the least expensive iPhones are being phased out, as Apple doesn’t need to remain somewhat competitive to Android, who are having their own memory induced profit issues and no where to go.'
on Demand for Apple's Phone 18 Pros 'better than feared' - 'who feared? I seriously would like to know. I can bet nobody here feared, or fear, slowing demand. Next they are going to say the Duo sells better than they feared. Who are these people?'
on Gene Munster: Apple splits the difference - 'I am totally happy if Apple sales of the Pro models are higher than last year in this new release pattern. Few people have analyzed why Apple has done this completely and the company hasn’t given a reason that I know of. I am going to say it is due to supply chain issues mostly caused by ram supply costs to maintain all the product releases at the same time. There may be other supply reasons as well. They are usually a bit stingy in creating new capacity before judging sales. Once burned twice shy. Apple is choosing prioritizing the more profitable devices first. They didn’t try and shoehorn the new Duo into the same release dates as the Pro models either. Of course many will buy Pro models now instead of base models since monthly purchase plans are not that much more expensive for the new models than previous years. This is a different version of Good, Better, Best as different generations of models and different form factors will now have different capabilities and different price points than previous years. By the end of the product cycle when Apple has introduced and have for sale all the 18 models and the Duo we will see if they have expanded their own market as well as average selling prices or not. Of course everyone wants to know after the first day of sales what the rest of the year will look like.'
on Gene Munster: Apple splits the difference - 'Agreed, PED. I for one will be getting a Duo! First iPhone in a long time that I’m truly excited about.'
