Steven Philips on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q1 2026 - 'BACK to $285! (approx.)'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q1 2026 - 'Excellent job Gary as nobody saw Apple getting anywhere near $140 Billion. Let alone blasting right past that number. Always a fun event to match up against the Wall Street crowd. The Apple All Star Prediction Event once again goes to Apple 3.0. Proud to be a subscriber. Appreciate PED keeping this site up and running with his great pictures and articles he posts. A huge thanks to everyone for all of their comments with their opinions and experiences over the decades with Apple. It certainly helps being part of this community as knowledge has no equal.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - '@David There are ads and there are ads. A static image at the side of the screen is not terrible. Something jumps and consumes the center of the screen till you dismiss it is unacceptable.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - ' Maybe Apple should buy Micron? Or develop its own memory silicon and contract with a foundry Tthere are tons that would die for an Apple contract (Intel for starters). That would be cheaper than buying a Micron. Seems to me that no one in the memory business owns the kind of industry controlling patents that Qualcomm does, and Apple got them to do something they never wanted to do. Or Apple could provide the financing to construct a new fab with an existing memory manufacturer. Who would turn down that business? Or maybe Apple sees these price hikes as short lived, dropping like a rock when the data center construction boom comes to an end (my favorite scenario). Until then Apple uses its buying power (read margins nobody else has) to offset memory price increases and gain share.'
on Apple blowout Q1 2026: What the talking heads are saying - 'Gene Munster attempted to explain why the aftermarket was so meh on AAPL. He has a point – sort of. But come on: Every bad market move has been blamed on Apple’s AI mistake a year or two ago, and I’m not buying it. There’s a malaise in the market right now, and I think it’s matching the malaise in the country. MSFT dropping to a sub-30 trailing valuation? When a ship that big starts taking on water, then the doubts become infectious. But Apple is not like Microsoft, or any other company on the planet. Also, as I again point out ad nauseam, dumping on AAPL just means Apple gets to take that massive increase in net cash flow and buy back even more cheap stock. How long will it be before the Gene Munsters of the world finally figure out why Apple just walks the walk and, except that one time, doesn’t talk the talk? Apple knows what’s coming, and they also know that long term investors will reap the benefit of short term traders’ continuing to underestimate Apple’s future. It has ever been thus.'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q1 2026 - 'Thanks Robert and PED, I moved my miss in last quarter’s iPhone estimate (where channel inventory ended way low) to this quarter and they still beat. Real congrats are to Cook and Co.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - 'The overhanging question after this blowout ER seems to be, why didn’t the stock price go up more after hours? Gene Munster on CNBC said he thought it should’ve gone up 12% based on the positive numbers. And said because it didn’t – that “there’s something else going on here.” That something else – is the current explosive increase in the price of solid state storage. Tim Cook was repeatedly asked about this at Apple’s Q&A ER conference call, and it was discussed relentlessly at the CNBC round table, then on Cramer‘s Mad Money. BOTTOMLINE The sudden shortage of storage is what Apple bears are using to control the narration now. I can personally attest that the cost of consumer memory has doubled in the last six months. MY EXPERIENCE For the past week, I’ve been trying to buy a new backup SSD to use as my new back-up system – for the new Mac Studio that I ordered last week. Fact: the exact same backup SSD drive that I bought seven months ago for my current old Mac Pro – which I’m about to replace – now costs literally TWICE as much. The identical bus powered external solid state SSD device shot up from around $550 to over $1100 today. No kidding. So as many here already know – the big bear issue with Apple has to do with how is it going to affect their margins going forward – because the cost of memory is so much more expensive now. It may not have affected this ER margins – but it may very well affect next quarter’s. That’s the grizzly narration holding the stock down now, after the best quarter Apple has ever had. I spent a lot of time researching what the choices are now with an IT friend. With his guidance, I just ordered today an advanced empty SSD enclosure made by OWC, and an advanced SSD chip sold separately. Supply is so limited, the online store was out of stock, so it will take 10 days to ship. By purchasing and assembling it myself, I not only saved a nice chunk of dough, but interestingly, it comes with a substantially more extended warranty. As everybody here knows, demand got this high and supply so low for advanced SSD storage because of the hyperventilated build-out of AI by every purveyor of mind control this side of Uranus. Or, to put it in the vernacular – it’s a supplier’s market now. My advice – if you’re in the market for high-end SSD storage, I suggest you buy it ASAP. Because the shortage is only going get worse. Maybe Apple should buy Micron?'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - 'What I find particularly gratifying about the charts is services: they aren’t cyclical like the Holiday and Lunar New Year shopping cycles — they just go up and up and up. “Up, up, and to the right!” And another footnote: April Dividend Updates. I think it was $28 bn on buybacks and $4 bn on dividends. I’d like to see $24 bn on buybacks and $8 bn. Of course, $25 bn on buybacks and $10 bn would be even better.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - 'If apple guides 13 to 16% you know they are going for 16% and confident that it is achievable. 16% takes Q2 to over $54bn. Chinese New Year falls later in the calendar this year, so the Q2 shopping days before CNY is greater than normal. So despite the great China growth some CNY purchases may have been deferred from Q1 to Q2. if they are constrained now on iPhone and AirPods Pro then safe to assume decent revenue growth for Q3 & Q4 too. Plus new M5 MacBooks should be another leg up. Here’s to the Longs.'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q1 2026 - 'Fat fingers alert…PE opens at 32.6 tomorrow. A ‘reasonable’ PE multiple of 36 takes the stock to $285.'
on Apple blowout Q1 2026: What the talking heads are saying - 'Wow – I just listened to Eddie’s comments (so you don’t have to). While astounded at iPhone sales, he then ticked off several areas where growth was minimal or below expectations. He then made some pretty strong, and IMO, really off-base comments re AI. Almost “Apple is doomed” sort of comments, though he clarified (?) this as over the “long-term.” Then he re-clarified this by saying over the “long long term.”'
on Apple blowout Q1 2026: What the talking heads are saying - 'New Year’s Resolution: Tune out the noise. Average forward EPS projections go up slowly due to analysts lag. And analysts low-ball by 2 to 3% on average. (This time the miss was much more.) Tim repeated that they were supply constrained. 2026 will bring more product upgrades The only questions are how fast does AAPL rise and how far.'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q1 2026 - 'Apple is looking at ~$1.95 in eps 90 days from now. While the flash memory prices will dominate the headlines over the next week or so, eventually, folks will start looking at Apple Gemini Intelligence and the Apple Foldable as the next revenue drivers. We should hit a new all-time high in February or March.'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q1 2026 - 'At times it is very frustrating to be an Apple investor 🙂 I look at MSFT though, and realize things could have been worse!'
on Apple Earnings Smackdown: Final estimates Q1 2026 - 'At a new trailing 12 month earnings of $7.90, and a current AH price ~$260, the newest AAPL PE ratio is ~32.9 according to my calculations, corrections welcome.'
