Recent Comments

  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Apple ended Thursday trading off $4.23 or 1.30% at $321.66. By comparison the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite closed down 2.15% and the S&P 500 dropped 1.21%. The shares are in the red $0.40 AH. On to Friday!'
  • David Emery on Premarket: Apple is red - 'A model railroad friend who worked for CSX at one time sold t-shirts (fundraiser for his dog’s medical expenses). It says “CSX – Tomorrow’s Freight Delivered Next Week” 🙂'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Thank you, David! I remember your affinity for model railroading as a hobby. I live very close to UNP tracks here in northern Los Angeles County and not too far from the Port of Long Beach so I see cargo being moved up and down the coast and along the tracks. I consider UNP’s trackbeds that I see to be a a marvel. At least here the cargo trains with lots of rail cars are running throughout the day. It’s among the reasons I follow the company. In my view there’s little that’s more picturesque that a freight train loaded with intermodal rail cars winding its way along the golden hills of the California coast accented by California Oak trees.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Intel is up after hours over 5% on a 25% rise in revenue and an attractive near-doubling of expected eps. It was another rough day for Microsoft with the shares down $8.76 or 2.24% at $381.58.'
  • David Emery on Premarket: Apple is red - 'The problem with railroads is the condition of their physical plant. Some railroads are better than others at maintaining their roadbed, but I’m not sure which RR actually in good condition. The consequences of bad roadbed include expensive derailments and second order effects (e.g. chemical spills.) Caveat Investor!'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Darren: LMT finished up 11.04% on the day, RTX rose 7.33% and LHX pushed higher by 5.09%. HII moved up 3.54% as GD gained 2.31%. It was a very good day for the defense/aerospace sector. If the nation is serious about committing itself to the construction of more navy ships I’d view it as bullish for GD and HII. At $209.16 at the close, RTX is close to its all-time high of $214.50 set back in March.'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is red - 'I used to work at Thermo. My friends and I were shocked.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is red - 'I’m thinking (hoping) today’s selloff is sympathetic to the selloff of others in the AI sector, who are expanding capex, with no further discussion on AI revenue generation. That AI revenue wall looms larger and larger, and it growth seems to correspond with discoveries about Apple’s on device hardware initiatives (aka rumors). Apple’s strategy is the right one. Even if on site AI servers aren’t ready for prime time (all indication Mac Minis are the preferred platform TODAY). In two years Apple is going to own this market. Of course, that means Apple is going to own the on device market, and that means Apps as well.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Watching the wires Baird has raised its Apple price target to $330 from $310. Benzinga is reporting Morgan Stanley just raised its Apple price target to $364 from $360.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Thermo Fisher Scientific also reported strong earnings. I’ve been in and out of this equity before. The shares are up $47.45 or 8.96% at $573.63. The current 52-week high of $643.99 was set back in January.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Union Pacific just reported surprisingly strong results (I’ve always liked the railroads!). The shares reached an all-time high today of $315.90 and are currently trading up $12.46 or 4.26% at $305.02. I consider the rails an overlooked and cost-efficient means of moving goods across the country.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Approaching 3pm in the east and just over 60% of S&P 500 components are in the red. The index is off 1.42% on the day. Tesla is off 14.25% at $320.73. SpaceX is higher so far $2.07 at $117.33.'
  • Joseph Bland on Counterpoint: iPhone shipments in China grew 23% YOY in June quarter - 'Hi, Daniel, That’s part of the reason for the drop, but there’s also the AI over-exuberance back flow.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Darren: Congratulations on the jump in LMT. I lost patience with the enterprise months ago and reduced the size of my position. RTX is up 6.89% today. NOC is in the green $3.68 at $528.96 and GD is up $5.81 at $378.97. It’s a good day for the sector.'
  • Daniel Epstein on Counterpoint: iPhone shipments in China grew 23% YOY in June quarter - 'Positive news being overshadowed by Iran conflict escalation. At least as far as Apple stock price movement today.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - '“For literally decades now, they were, and still are, worth every bit of a 40 P/E valuation…” If it’s worth a 40 P/E now, then it was always worth a 40 P/E. That it wasn’t is the heart of Apple’s incredibly smart buyback jiu jitsu move that continues to be underestimated in its ability to reward its long term investors. And if indeed there are now more rewarding ways Apple can invest its immense and still handily growing free cash flow, then long term investors will still continue to gain, as the value of an original share of AAPL continues to grow like Topsy.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Good morning from Sacramento, Darren, although you’re probably sleeping right now. “I know diversification is a dirty word for some around here…” It’s more like Apple is an extremely rare company, Darren, which only recently began to be fairly valued, and even now is seen as a relatively safe haven. For whatever reason, there’s been a blind spot on the part of Mr. Market one could drive a Mac truck through, and backing Apple’s play to the hilt has clearly paid big dividends. Yes, some of us see no reason for abandoning a sure thing even now, especially when we look at the jumbled mess and lower overall returns that simple diversity creates in the name of security. Because, in the end, security is the siren call of diversity, but also happens to be one of the many things Apple is really good at. Perhaps what you are calling diversifying is really more about stock-picking, which I can’t dispute – if you’re smart enough, or have time and resources enough. But the wild thing about Apple is that it really is a unicorn. For example, I am simply flabbergasted to look back over the last 5 years and see all the REALLY cheap stock that Apple, by investing its vast cash flow in (and not in shooting craps at AI data centers but in converting into real shareholder returns) has been able to salt away (at very little in the way of the typical double-taxation our broken tax system depends on that actually ends up highly benefitting the wealthiest among us, who “won” a flat tax years ago by sleight-of-hand [thanks for nothing, President Reagan – literally!]) – but hey, if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em, and then spend some of that cash you just made fighting the wealthy and powerful, and at least attempt to fix the broken system with that cash, and maybe, just maybe, help put the Ship of State back on an even keel some day…) The point being, the leaders and employees of Apple are smart as whips, and have been underestimated for literally decades. For literally decades now, they were, and still are, worth every bit of a 40 P/E valuation, but were instead laughed off. What other single company can you say that about? And what other company figured out how to turn those lemons into gold in the pockets of its ex-employees and other long term investors? If you can actually find one of those that also has the near-complete absence of moral turpitude of Apple (REALLY hard to find underlying most of today’s companies’ schemes!), then let me know. No promises, but I’ll take them into consideration. Hmm. Maybe it’s Apple’s lack of moral turpitude that has so befuddled Mr. Market…'
  • Greg Lippert on Premarket: Apple is red - 'It’s just getting started. The fine doesn’t even take into account the AI access the EU is demanding. Apple and Google can never do what the EU is mandating. https://daringfireball.net/2026/07/ec_google_guidance_android_ai_and_search_sharing'
  • Darren DMW on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Except Defence stocks. LMT one of my fave trades is up 11%. I assume my Aussie energy stocks will do very nicely tomorrow. I know diversification is a dirty word for some around here but it is always good to buy some counter cyclical stocks when they are low and every couple of years an opportunity arrives to make some good money in otherwise tough times. Rinse and repeat.'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Blood in the streets today. Tesla is down over 12%. Google Dow over 6%. Apple down nearly 2%. Brent crude over $100.'
  • Roger Schutte on Premarket: Apple is red - 'If we can’t say the G-word…Eddie Munster is on today’s Odd Lots podcast.'
  • David Emery on Premarket: Apple is red - 'It would serve the EU right if “where this ends” is with the return of the Nokia flip phone, when Apple and Google both pull out of that market 🙁'
  • Steven Philips on Premarket: Apple is red - 'OT, but I just saw an article in the Guardian indicating Google was fined one billion by the EU. IIRC there was a recent article criticizing Apple for fighting the EU and not working with the EU like Google was. Riiight! Not that I’m terribly sympathetic to Google, but where does this crap end?'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Apple finished the day down $1.85 at $325.89. Overnight the shares are currently off $0.54 at $325.32. Year-to-date the shares remain up 19.87%.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is red - 'John said “Is there an expected resistance level these days? $125? $120?” Man, I hope those were typos, of AAPL hit $125 you would think the world ended or China invaded Taiwan. Apple would never get down there organically because EVERYONE would have bought back in somewhere around $260-$270, a 20+% drop.'
  • Ron Fredrick on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Rodney Avilla said: ”Periodically, my financial advisor suggests that I diversify, although the last few years I thought that he had given up.” **Rodney, years ago, my wife and I considered ourselves “diversified” when we lost about $100,000 in the 1999-2000 Tech Crash. After that we went 100% AAPL and things have gone much better. 🙂 However, in the early years (2000-2010), our Charles Schwab advisor tried *very* hard to convince us to diversify once again. We ignored him and are very glad we did. IMO, if advisors were all that good at making investing decisions, they’d be wealthy from their own investments and living on their own private island.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is red - '“so for 2025 if the China Foldables market was 10.6M units, how many Foldables sold internationally and what was the total global Foldables sales?” Depending on which major analytical tracking firm’s global totals you apply, the numbers scale as follows: Scenario A: Using Counterpoint Research Metrics Total Global Sales: 19.6 million China Sales: 10.6 million International Sales (Outside China): 9.0 million Market Proportion: China 54.1% of global volume; International markets outside of China 45.9%. Scenario B: Using IDC Market Metrics Total Global Sales: 20.6 million units China Sales: 10.6 million International Sales (Outside China): 10.0 million Market Proportion: China 51.5% of global volume International markets 48.5%. What This Highlights The data shows that the global foldable market was almost a perfect 50/50 split between China and the rest of the world. Outside of China, Samsung captured the vast majority of those 9 to 10 million international shipments, as Chinese vendors largely kept their ultra-thin hardware exclusive to their domestic ecosystem. “Would you like to look into how Motorola’s international clamshell sales contributed to that 9–10 million international block, or explore Samsung’s global market share for the year?“ “Exactly how many Foldables did Samsung and Motorola sell globally and how many of each format?” Based on official 2025 data from Counterpoint Research, Samsung sold approximately 7.84 million foldables globally, while Motorola shipped roughly 1.57 million units. Tracking groups calculate exact performance percentages rather than single-unit retail receipts, showing that Samsung captured 40% of the global market, while Motorola secured roughly 8%. Applying those benchmarks against the 19.6 million total global sales pool yields the clear breakdown below. Samsung Global Format Breakdown Historically, Samsung’s shipments lean heavily toward its more accessible clamshell variant, though the gap closed slightly in 2025 due to a mid-year surge in book-style demand: • Clamshell Format (Galaxy Z Flip series): ~4.70 million units (Approx. 60% of their mix) • Book-Style Format (Galaxy Z Fold series): ~3.14 million units (Approx. 40% of their mix) Motorola Global Format Breakdown Motorola’s strategy relies almost exclusively on its highly competitive, fashionable clamshell footprint. Because they did not introduce a global commercial book-style device until later, their 2025 volume targets one specific category: • Clamshell Format (Razr series): ~1.57 million units (100% of their mix) Book-Style Format: 0 units (They did not compete in the global large-screen book tier in 2025)” “What are estimates for 2026 global Foldables sales by vendor?” “Full-year 2026 estimates project global foldable smartphone sales will reach between 24M and 27M units, representing a 20% to 21% YoY growth spike. According to newly consolidated forecasts from Counterpoint Research and Smart Analytics Global (SAG), the 2026 market landscape looks radically different from previous years. The arrival of long-anticipated hardware—specifically Apple’s late-year ultra-premium entry, Samsung’s newly introduced wide-format Z Fold8 & Tri-Fold form factors— is dramatically shifting market allocations. Projected 2026 Global Foldable Market Share by Vendor Based on Counterpoint’s localized shipment modeling applied to a baseline consensus of roughly 24.5M global units, the expected sales breakdown by manufacturer scales as follows: Samsung 32%, ~7.84M Apple 25%, ~6.13M ((remember, this is just for Sept-Dec 2026)) Huawei 24%, ~5.88M ((more on this below)) Motorola (Lenovo) 8%, ~1.96M Honor 3%, ~0.74M Others (Xiaomi, Vivo, etc.) 8%, ~1.96M Crucial Industry Shifts To Watch For The Remainder of 2026 • Samsung Retains a Narrowed Lead: While Samsung is successfully defending its global volume crown (projected at 32%), its overall footprint is dropping from 40% in 2025 due to unprecedented luxury competition. • The Apple Vacuum: Despite entering the calendar year late, Apple is estimated to capture a massive 25% unit slice and up to 34% of entire segment revenue in its debut year. This is due to an incredibly high expected average selling price near $2,400, pulling existing premium iOS users into the foldable ecosystem instantly. • Book-Type Formats Take the Crown: For the first time ever, massive book-style layouts are projected to dominate 65% of all global foldable sales (up from 52% last year). Clamshell flip phones are losing momentum as consumers demand wider screens to run multitasking, task execution, and side-by-side generative AI assistant workflows.”'
  • Greg Lippert on Premarket: Apple is red - 'If I had listened to all the advisors telling me to divest out of Apple I wouldn’t be in the situation that I’m in. Screw em'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is red - 'For the China market: “The major foldables in China are dominated by domestic giants—Huawei, Honor, Vivo, Oppo, and Xiaomi—who consistently lead the global market in ultra-thin engineering, massive silicon-carbon battery capacities, and alternative form factors. Unlike the global market where Samsung dominates, China’s “OVMH” (Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi, Huawei, Honor) ecosystem prioritizes aggressive structural innovation, resulting in hardware that is vastly thinner and lighter than Western counterparts. 1. Huawei (The Market Dominator) Huawei commands the largest market share in China’s foldable sector. • Huawei Mate XT Ultimate: The world’s first commercial tri-fold smartphone. It folds into a standard phone size but expands twice into a massive 10.2-inch tablet. • Huawei Mate X7 / X6: Their premium dual-fold book-style flagship. It is renowned for its ultra-slim profile, satellite connectivity, and an advanced periscope camera array. • Huawei Pura X Max: A unique, wide-screen premium entry featuring industry-leading generative AI tools and highly advanced native camera sensors. 2. Vivo (The Camera & Battery Powerhouse) Vivo emphasizes massive hardware specs w/o sacrificing a thin profile. • Vivo X Fold 6 $1,749.99 These devices boast the largest battery capacities in the foldable industry (up to a massive 7,000mAh using next-gen silicon-carbon technology). They are widely considered by tech reviewers to have the most color-accurate cameras on any foldable, thanks to Zeiss optics and a 200MP main sensor. 3. Honor (The Thinnest Layouts) Honor focuses heavily on extreme pocketability and ergonomics. • Honor Magic V6 $1,997.00 One of the absolute thinnest book-style foldables ever made, measuring a staggering 4mm unfolded and just 8.75mm when closed. It handles its thermal load using the Snapdragon 8 Elite processor & features an aerospace-grade aluminum chassis. 4. Oppo (The Crease Innovator) Oppo focuses on screen perfection and ergonomic ratios. • Oppo Find N6 $1,595.99 Marketed as a pioneer in “zero-crease” technology, utilizing a state-of-the-art waterdrop hinge that leaves the internal display almost entirely flat to the touch, heavily outperforming Western alternatives in stress-test consistency. 5. Xiaomi (The Slim Photography Alternative) • Xiaomi Mix Fold 4 $1,699.99 Xiaomi’s ultra-slim contender relies on incredibly sleek hardware & a Leica-engineered camera system. While heavily praised for its performance, it remains largely exclusive to the mainland China market.“ “What were actual annual sales of Foldables in the China market by each vendor?” According to consolidated data from industry tracking firms like International Data Corporation (IDC), China’s total foldable market volume reached approximately 10.6 million units.Huawei alone was responsible for roughly 7.6 million of those shipments. The rest of the market was highly fragmented among rival Android vendors, who saw their positions shrink relative to Huawei’s massive expansion. 2025 Chinese Foldable Market Share & Estimated Units Because tracking firms traditionally report exact market share percentages rather than raw retail transaction numbers, the exact sales breakdown across the top five domestic vendors maps out as follows: Huawei 71.6%, ~7.60M Honor 10.9%, ~1.15M Vivo ~6.5%, ~0.69M Xiaomi ~5.0%, ~0.53M Oppo ~4.0%, ~0.42M Others (Samsung, etc.) ~2.0%, ~0.21M Key Market Takeaways From The Year The Huawei Monopoly: Huawei’s transition to in-house Kirin 5G chips and its new HarmonyOS Next ecosystem triggered an aggressive wave of premium domestic upgrades. Their 71.6% footprint effectively squeezed the growth of all other brands. Samsung’s Struggle in China: While Samsung remains a massive global giant in foldables overall, its market share inside mainland China hovered at near-negligible levels. Premium Chinese buyers overwhelmingly chose domestic alternatives over the Galaxy lineup. Flip vs. Book Volumes: Cheaper clamshell-style devices like the Huawei Nova Flip and Honor V Flip drove massive volume spikes in lower-tier Chinese cities, expanding the total size of the foldable market beyond high-end tech enthusiasts.” “Would you like to examine how Huawei’s global foldable numbers stack up against Samsung, or look into the projected changes for the market now that the 2026 models are out?”'
  • Rodney Avilla on Premarket: Apple is red - 'He recommended shifting from wealth creation to wealth preservation. So he recommends divesting out of stocks (Apple) over the next 18 months into less risky funds. He did not give specific fund names. PS- I have no intention of following his advice.'