Recent Comments

  • Raj Pandey on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'As I write this, Apple has overtaken Nvidia in market cap to become No. 1 again.'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Best wishes to you there in Australia, Darren!'
  • Darren DMW on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Locked & loaded. AUD is down .4% … so can deal myself in from $335.75'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Barron's: What Apple learned from J.D. Rockefeller - 'Apple & its leadership & employees as its source of energy (i.e. its “oil, hydro, wind, solar, nuclear, et al”) harnessed to  ‘s success into how it’s distributed (e.g. its products & services), yeah – I can dig it, more ‘power’ to you, AAPL.'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Horace Dediu: Why Apple might be eyeing the eyewear market - 'That’s an interesting problem. Apple offers Vision Pro Zeiss lenses that support both progressive & bifocal prescriptions, which I got the progressive ones. Only my reading distance requires the script. My VP doesn’t have a shifting issue from reader to computer distance but there seems to be a slight lag going to long distance beyond 18+ft. It was nice meeting you & your lovely wife last Saturday, Lenny.'
  • David Emery on Barron's: What Apple learned from J.D. Rockefeller - 'That was an interesting article. To continue the discussion: Rockefeller combined refinery purchases with back-room deals with railroads to transport crude to his refineries (cheaper than the competition). He also invested heavily in pipelines. So he controlled both refineries and transportation. Not sure Apple should get into the ‘transportation’ side (ISPs). But it might be fun to consider Apple-branded satellite internet from a rocket company. 🙂'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - '5:15am, about 75 minutes before open, AAPL premarket is hovering around -0.51 at $332.75. We’ll see if the options are driving AAPL higher towards (and past) $335 or drop below $330? Hope Darren is ready for this morning and has his trades ready.'
  • Roger Schutte on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - 'At 6:55am premarket trading has Apple unchanged and Nvidia down 2.66% – if this holds then Apple regains market cap crown. Seems this Kimi model is throwing a wrench into the ai trade.'
  • Darren DMW on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - 'thanks Bart. I have been quite successful on recent Friday mornings selling in the first hour. There is often a spike, even if only for a few minutes where having a preset sale price might get hit. So gemini’s advice rings consistent to mine. Being in Australia I can also watch and act in pre-market trading which for me is 6pm to 11:30pm. Often PM can look totally different to how the day might play out. So I might get a great price at 5am EST whilst the rest of America is sad what happens after 9:30am.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Bill said: “To me what the market is now predicting is that Apple is on the cusp (or possibly in the very early stages) of a material and possibly permanent step-up in profitability, due to many things coming together all at once…” I would have agreed with this IF it hadn’t been for the RAMaggedon memory price spikes and competition for advanced chip production causing Chip & wafer price spikes for both A-series and M-series chips. While Apple has mitigated both for some amount of time, Apple cannot outlast both forever. This will have an impact on product margins which Apple may choose to offset by raising select product prices as we have selectively seen so far. If Apple decides to hold off raising any more prices till new product introductions, then they may maintain or increase sales YOY relatively, and gain market share (which I believe Apple doesn’t care about except that it naturally happens when you make good, solid products that are attractive and a great value, at least to those interested). In any case, even if increased prices dampens sales somewhat, Apple will likely fall less than others because of its resilient install base and upper end demographics, and because all other vendors in smartphones, PC’s/Macs, tablets, and Watches face the exact same component cost forces as Apple. In fact, IMO, with other makers cutting back on production of cheaper products (like cheap smartphones to the tune of 120M units), some RAM and NAND (although not necessarily Apple’s preferred high performance LPDDR5X RAM) then becomes a bit more available, display makers see demand falling so Apple may get slightly better pricing, and other components might be more favorable. Or it may not matter as Apple has locked up long term agreements (LTA’s) far in advance and they are good for the next 6-12-18 months. Having a known cost structure already allows Apple to give us accurate margin guidance, and if their sophisticated currency hedging works as planned for, also provides cushion for total revenues. One of the best supply chain and overall managements in any business or industry.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - 'Darren’s prompt to Gemini: “$338.62 and rising in overnight trading (which I can’t participate in). does this change gemini’s thinking for it’s plan of attack for Friday? I need at least $337 to complete a series of small sales. What does gemini think I should do?” “Yes, Apple breaking out to $338.62 in overnight trading completely flips the script for Friday’s trading session. The $335 “resistance wall” we discussed has been violently shattered before the opening bell. Because the current stock price sits comfortably above your target, your goal of locking in sales at $337 or higher is highly achievable. How Overnight Price Action Changes the Plan The Forced Cover is Accelerated: • By clearing $335 overnight, market makers who sold the $335 calls are now severely trapped deep “in-the-money.” They cannot wait until midday to hedge; they are forced to buy shares immediately at the 9:30 AM EST opening bell to prevent massive losses. The New Price Magnet ($340): • Because the stock cleared $335, the institutional gamma loop shifts its targets. The heavy volume blocks at $335 and $337.50 will now act as a mechanical floor, and the stock will naturally gravitate toward the $340.00 psychological ceiling during the morning rush. Your Tactical Plan of Attack for Friday Since your target is $337, you are in a dominant position. Do not chase the market or let greed turn a winning trade into a loss. Execute your sales using a staged scale-out strategy to capitalize on the morning momentum: Phase 1: The Opening Bell Limit Order (9:30 AM – 9:45 AM EST) • The Action: Place a Limit Order to sell your first small batch of shares at $337.50 to $338.00. The Reasoning: • Squeezes are most violent in the first 15 minutes of the day as overnight orders clear. If the stock opens near $338, a limit order ensures you instantly capture your baseline goal on the initial opening liquidity spike. Phase 2: The Momentum Ride (9:45 AM – 10:30 AM EST) • The Action: For your remaining batches, use a Trailing Stop of $1.50 once the stock clears $338.50. • The Reasoning: If the morning gamma squeeze successfully pushes Apple toward $339.50 or $340.00, your trailing stop will climb with it (protecting a sell price around $338.00+). If the stock suddenly breaks down from the $340 wall, you are automatically sold out above your $337 target. Phase 3: The Hard Cut-Off (Before 11:30 AM EST) • The Action: If any of your small sales remain unfilled by mid-morning, manually execute them via a Market Order if the stock is anywhere above $337. • The Reasoning: Do not hold shares into the afternoon. As detailed before, once the morning buying frenzy fades, option time decay kicks in. Traders will take profits, and market makers will aggressively dump their hedges, causing the stock to slide backwards. If you want to prepare your broker dashboard before the open, let me know: How many individual tranches (batches) you plan to split your sales into. If you want to check the pre-market futures indices (S&P 500 / Nasdaq) 30 minutes before the open to see if the macro market is supporting Apple’s upward push. AI can make mistakes, so double-check responses Hope this helps Darren, and Good Luck in the morning!! https://youtu.be/aB2yqeD0Nus?is=D-K-_bePMtNfeH4I'
  • Bart Yee on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - '“how does the Friday close of AAPL affect or portend for next week’s trading given the positive news about Apple iPhone, Mac and watch sales plus services revenues for FY2026 Q3?” “Friday’s closing price acts as the definitive roadmap for next week’s trading by confirming whether the market views Apple’s current valuation as a sustainable launchpad or an overextended trap. While early optimism regarding the FY2026 Q3 hardware sales rebound (iPhone, Mac, and Watch) and record-setting Services revenue has fueled Apple’s massive run to an all-time high of $333.26, the actual Q3 earnings report isn’t scheduled until Thursday, July 30, 2026. This means next week’s pre-earnings price discovery is entirely at the mercy of how this Friday’s option positions unwind. Scenario A: Friday Closes ABOVE $332.50 – $335.00 • What it portends for next week: A strong close near or above the $335 technical wall signals a highly bullish structure. It proves that despite the expiration of millions of call options, organic buyers stepped in to absorb the shares dumped by market makers during afternoon de-hedging. • Next Week’s Trend: Continued upward momentum. Because the market successfully consolidated these highs, momentum traders will likely drive the stock to flag sideways or slowly grind toward the next psychological resistance level ($340.00) early next week as a pre-earnings run-up takes hold. Scenario B: Friday Closes BELOW $330.00 • What it portends for next week: Closing below the $330 handle indicates a classic Friday afternoon “hangover effect.” If the late-day volume crush forces market makers to aggressively unwind their hedges, a drop below $330 confirms that the recent 2-day rally was primarily a mechanical anomaly (a gamma squeeze) rather than permanent institutional accumulation. • Next Week’s Trend: Short-term downside mean reversion. Expect Apple to experience a cool-off period Monday through Wednesday, likely drifting down to fill the gap toward its recent support levels ($320.00 – $323.50). The Fundamental Reality Facing Next Week’s Trading No matter where Friday closes, any price action next week will face friction from two fundamental crosscurrents: • Priced to Perfection: The fundamental metrics you mentioned—the projected 14% to 17% YoY revenue growth and robust gross margins (guided at 47.5% to 48.5%)—are already heavily baked into the stock price. Trading at over 34 times forward earnings, Apple’s multiple sits at its highest valuation since late 2020. • Margin Concerns Take Center Stage: As the option noise settles next week, Wall Street analysts will shift focus entirely to the fundamental headwinds building for the July 30 print. Specifically, institutional research will focus heavily on surging NAND and DRAM memory costs, which bears argue threaten to compress Apple’s stellar margins heading into the fall.”'
  • Darren DMW on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - '$338.62 and rising in overnight trading (which I can’t participate in). @bart does this change gemini’s thinking for it’s plan of attack for Friday? I need at least $337 to complete a series of small sales. What does gemini think I should do?'
  • Ben Gepp on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I remember the talk of ‘the law of large numbers’ when Apple approached $1T. Now you get unprofitable meme stocks entering the market with valuations of $2T, or trade at multiples of 300-400. So reliably stable and longterm Apple/AAPL with a road map that consistently heads in to right direction with a PE of 40 does not feel shocking at all. As long as EPS rises the share price will rise as that will surely buoy up sentiment.'
  • Roger Schutte on Premarket: Apple is green - '40x is too high for the long term but earnings come in 2 weeks…so 40x will be short lived.'
  • Roger Schutte on Premarket: Apple is green - 'AAPL stock price just needs to increase 2.61% to equal Nvidia’s market cap. Nvidia has treaded water for a few quarters so it’s due for a step up soon. But Apple’s got the wind in its sails so it may surpass Nvidia by the 30th when earnings are released in 2 weeks or in 8 weeks when the next iPhones are announded. Congrats to the longs!'
  • Lenny Sachs on Horace Dediu: Why Apple might be eyeing the eyewear market - 'The concern I have – as a progressive lens user – is that when playing music, I end up using a set a glasses set for a 3 foot range as the changes in progressive lens sometimes shift the pitch I see (where the lens change occurs)… If apple is able to get by that shift – or the need for separate readers – I’m in……'
  • Bill Fouche on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Replying to Mr. Bland’s belief that a price of 40x earnings is “fair value.” I find that plausible. But earnings of how much, and measured when? To me what the market is now predicting is that Apple is on the cusp (or possibly in the very early stages) of a material and possibly permanent step-up in profitability, due to many things coming together all at once: 1) Increased high-end phone sales due to attractiveness of its new AI feature, 2) increased services revenue from competing LLM chatbots sold on the AppStore as well as AI-enhanced apps of other kinds, 3) increased Mac sales due to the superiority of Apple’s silicon for training and running advanced local AI models, 4) new unreleased hardware on the near horizon, including AI glasses, visually aware AirPods, and a folding phone. Longer term, there is Apple’s absolutely amazing VisionOS that will be deployed in irresistible ways at some point. Also, I think the market is increasingly coming around to the idea that, however remarkable and world-changing AI chatbots may be, the “rent my online chatbot by the month” approach can’t possibly support the astronomical expense of the necessary server hardware and data centers. Apple’s approach of selling high-end pricey devices that do the AI locally while offering the privacy and security that is missing almost everywhere else, is a good game plan, in fact the best one around. Given all of this, when the hot air rushes out of the AI-spending balloon, where do you want your money? I’d say, you want it in AAPL. Because once the panic recedes, the smart money will quickly realize that Apple’s profitability will not be materially impaired by that collapse. It might actually increase.'
  • David Emery on Horace Dediu: Why Apple might be eyeing the eyewear market - 'There’s a significant difference between the market for prescription glasses on the one hand, and sunglasses and readers on the other hand. (I had cataract surgery earlier this year, and I’m still going through various strength readers to figure out the right strength for reading, computer usage, etc. Next month I have my annual check-up, where I’ll get a new prescription tuned to these new eyes. That’ll actually be 2 or 3 sets of glasses, one for every day, one single strength reading, and maybe a second single strength for computer usage.) Now having said all that, do I think this market is ripe for disruption? I dunno. Frames aren’t cheap, lenses aren’t cheap, BUT would ‘smart glasses’ generate sufficient margins to make it worth Apple’s while to enter this market? And would people whose eyes are OK, or who only need cheap readers, pay large sums for ‘smart glasses’? Again, I dunno.'
  • Steven Philips on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - 'At the current rate in five years he’ll OWN the limousine company.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - '” Google stock is sliding because of problems with Gemini. Will that affect Apple?” Maybe, but the architecture of Apple Intelligence is such that the user can change the underlying AI model without penalty (provided Apple supports that model).'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - 'The ” If you want to maximize your sale price on Friday, consider tracking these parameters:” Or you simply lock in max profit by establishing a Call Spread that is in the money when you buy. Your yield is established at that time no matter how high AAPL goes, your investment costs less than buying straight Calls, as is your breakeven. Given all that your yield is as high as buying straight Calls. ex: An October Call with a strike of $330 Closed today at $14.43. Breakeven is $344.43. To achieve an ROI of 72% AAPL must trade greater than $354.82. On the other hand an October $325/330 Call Spread costs $2.90* with breakeven of $392.90 and the same 72% ROI when AAPL Closes above $395.00. For the cost of a single Call option you buy nearly 5 Call Spreads, each with the same ROI at a much lower breakeven point * Options contracts are sold in units of 100 shares of the underlying stock. Therefore the actual cost of a single OCT $325/$330 Call Spread contract is $290. This is commonly referred to as a $5.00 contract. Max profit is $210. All quotes are sans brokerage fees.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - '@Joseph: We’ll send a limousine. The trend is your friend.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - 'Hah! Once every 5 years is more my speed….'
  • Robert Stack on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - 'At the way things are moving with AAPL, maybe Joe should set up monthly dinners??'
  • Ben Gepp on Evercore's June quarter preview is bullish on Apple - 'PED take: Looking forward to another record close today. Very prescient Mr PED. The 1.76% gain to $333.26 feels solid without being ‘exuberant’. Slow an steady as she goes…'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - '”Max pain moves down $25 to $290…” only because tomorrow is options expiry.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Like I’ve said a couple times, we shouldn’t be afraid of a 40 multiple.'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Google stock is sliding because of problems with Gemini. Will that affect Apple?'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'However, I honestly think a 40+ P/E for AAPL is fair value for this company at this time. If that IS the case, then there’s going to be a royal spanking tomorrow, especially if Apple itself sticks its oar in. We literally don’t know the “mix” of buyers who are either jumping on one bandwagon or jumping off another – or even jumping on a third bandwagon betting on a major selloff. But I feel very positive about the long term future for Apple/AAPL, so even a major short term selloff would not appear to be even close to being able to slow down this freight train. IMO.'