Recent Comments

  • Bart Yee on Mark Gurman: What Apple needs from Broadcom and vice versa - 'David, while I share your general disdain for Gurman’s info sourcing and writing biases and tactics, his general discussion and roadmap sharing IS intriguing. If he’s even remotely accurate or at least directional regarding Apple Server technology and how it’s evolving and expanding to meet Apple’s internal AI cloud based processing needs, then that’s exactly what we need to know, both from technology and practical business standpoints, and from an investor standpoint. From that perspective, Gurman’s pointing to and confirming what many of us have speculated about the evolution of Apple M-silicon based servers and how their designed in advantages and technologies address Apple’s needs AND keep it near the forefront of AI and datacenter based servers needs. I didn’t remember hearing about Apple Baltra Servers so down another rabbit hole I’ll go. More on this to come!'
  • John Konopka on EU Court: Yes, Virginia. Apple is a gatekeeper - '@David Just a guess, but I think Apple could fork an EU only version of iOS. Didn’t they do that already with the stores? I don’t see how the EU could complain about what Apple sold outside of the EU.'
  • David Emery on EU Court: Yes, Virginia. Apple is a gatekeeper - 'I’m inclined to think no court would rule to limit its own authority, without a very direct legislative imperative. After all, the US taxes worldwide income, and levies fines for bribery committed by US corporations overseas. Why should foreign earnings be sheltered from the authority of the court? (And that’s before considering the lengths that multinationals, including Apple, go to making sure they book profits and balances in particularly favorable nations.)'
  • Steven Philips on Apple scores a 'staggering' 87 Emmy nominations - 'Emmy-noms. Look for the “A” on each piece. Yum!'
  • Steven Philips on EU Court: Yes, Virginia. Apple is a gatekeeper - 'No, but it would probably withstand an EU court challenge.'
  • Steven Philips on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Sigh! (Just what that means I really don’t know 🙁 )'
  • Charles A. on EU Court: Yes, Virginia. Apple is a gatekeeper - 'But WHICH court?!'
  • Bill Donahue on Josh Brown drinks the Apple Kool-Aid (video) - 'It doesn’t take the voodoo of technical analysis to figure out that, after the initial knee-jerkers dropped the stock, the market ignored the news about increased memory costs and decided Apple’s still going to have an advantage over their competitors. In fact, a price-and-volume chart and all the “cup and saucer” trends in the world won’t tell you that. Only understanding the company, what it does, and how it differs from its competition will tell you that.'
  • Joseph Bland on Josh Brown drinks the Apple Kool-Aid (video) - 'Investors repudiated the negativity about as firmly as I have ever seen, and I’ve been following AAPL for over two decades now. Couple the sheer nervousness of this market – thanks to this President and his enablers – with the Rock of Gibraltar that Apple has become, and any pullback gets immediately translated into a buying opportunity. I think folks will get a bit uncomfortable as Apple approaches a 40 valuation, but with EPS at $8.26 (per Apple Stocks), that’s at $330.40/share. And that EPS shows every sign of increasing handily, which helps calm fears that AAPL is getting out over its skis. And the more this becomes the rule rather than the exception, the more the long term investor cadre grows, creating even more stock stability.'
  • Greg Lippert on EU Court: Yes, Virginia. Apple is a gatekeeper - 'Yes wouldn’t the EU be liable for forcing open rival stores, etc, that facilitate consumer fraud. How is it possible to fine worldwide revenue? That goes beyond the EU’s boundaries. That can’t stand a reasonable court challenge, can it?'
  • Gregg Thurman on The days of the $99 smartphone are numbered - 'If I’m correct there will be a downward shift in demand for data center AI during 2027 and especially during 2028. A large portion of the shift will occur when Apple announces its new server designed for localized AI and made possible by Apple’s partnership with Broadcom (AI ASIC chips that are 4X faster than the M5 Ultra). Credit to Mark Gurman whose CNBC interview set me on a path exploring the Broadcom partnership.'
  • Daniel Epstein on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Just taking time to watch the Apple stock whiplash for today. The price of 314.11 USD at 2:31 PM is very green. Up 3.48 for the day so far. A 5 dollar swing up from earlier low. And this is with the Iran issues causing drops in the Dow among others of 1.11%. So despite the bad news for the world Apple stock is bouncing up. Interesting.'
  • Gregg Thurman on The days of the $99 smartphone are numbered - 'Anybody that bought a new iPhone in the last three years is going to benefit from higher resale values, thereby offsetting a portion of the increased cost of a replacement iPhone. The key to iPhone 18’s success isn’t the price, it is the improvement in the things that matter most to buyers of new handsets: battery life and cameras. You can potentially add to that the draw caused by Apple Intelligence features. Adventurous buyers may upgrade for that out of curiosity, so what Apple unveils in September will be important. I’m beginning to believe that the price increases aren’t going to matter all that much. Remember, Apple doesn’t price its products based on COGS, but rather on the jobs they do. I’m encouraged by this as I believe Apple blamed the price increase on rising memory costs. Apple will be forgiven by the consumer for raising prices because of the greed of Samsung (dramatic increase in profits), SK Hynix (dramatic increase in profits) and Micron (dramatic increase in profits). Apple has successfully cast these three vendors as the evil doers. But in reality Apple would have raised prices anyway because of new AI jobs its products will be able to do ON DEVICE, beginning with iOS27. That strongly implies both greatly improved SIRI and Apple Intelligence will be announced in the Fall, running best on new iPhones, iPads and Macs, and who among Apple’s competitors can/will offer on device AI? Or privacy? Switchers anybody? Rising memory costs will be the scape goat for Apple’s planned price increases, and the consumer will have been long been conditioned for them, not by anything one thing Apple has said or done, but everyday by an unknowing accomplice, the media. And all this just in time for Apple’s leadership change. My gawd these guys are smart.'
  • Fred Stein on EU Court: Yes, Virginia. Apple is a gatekeeper - 'The court’s ruling sets up the question of who is liable for harm caused by predators given access to so much power.'
  • David Emery on EU Court: Yes, Virginia. Apple is a gatekeeper - 'Ayuh…. I kinda glazed over that entire post. Finance stuff isn’t my strong suit. So, assuming EU regulations are sustained by EU courts, what should Apple do? Develop a EU-only version? Substantially re-engineer the entire product line world-wide to meet EU requirements? I strongly suspect the Eurocrats and courts wouldn’t accept Apple selling a “crippled” EU-only product that is substantially less capable than sold elsewhere. But that strategy may be much more legally defensible.'
  • Joseph Bland on EU Court: Yes, Virginia. Apple is a gatekeeper - 'Apple will do what it’s forced to do under protest, just like most of the citizens of the US are doing.'
  • John Konopka on EU Court: Yes, Virginia. Apple is a gatekeeper - '@David Yesterday’s post on FX includes a chart showing revenue from the EU at about 25% of total revenue.'
  • David Emery on EU Court: Yes, Virginia. Apple is a gatekeeper - 'A question for Bart or Horace: How much would it hurt Apple to not sell iPhones and iPads in the EU?'
  • Dan Scropos on The days of the $99 smartphone are numbered - 'Apple’s recent “land grab” is starting to come into focus. Not raising iPhone prices until this year (most likely) may have been in anticipation of higher prices leading to a longer upgrade cycle. Get the switchers and upgraders *now* (last year) and they’ll be ready to upgrade again when memory costs are coming back down. The balance of Apple’s IB, for whom price increases aren’t as big a deal, will upgrade at their usual rate. Also, of course, the Apple foldable, which will also sell well, regardless of price. I’d have to imagine they bought up memory from that phone over a year ago, so that may be prices starting at $1,999, and not the rumored $2,300-$2,500. Either way, I’m getting one.'
  • Mordechai Beizer on The days of the $99 smartphone are numbered - 'And the EU and others will accuse Apple of using its dominant position to wipe out the competition. Calls for penalties, fines, or breakup to follow. In other news “sun to rise in the east tomorrow.”'
  • Greg Lippert on The days of the $99 smartphone are numbered - 'Apple will use this to snuff out the cheaper options by offering quality at a competitive price point.'
  • Fred Stein on The days of the $99 smartphone are numbered - 'Actually I think Apple will continue their trend of improving iPhones to improve value and drive prices higher. It works because Apple’s demographic is less price sensitive. Also trade-in value increases as used iPhones become more valuable compared to new Android phones with price increases. The only concern is people buying iPhones now to beat price increases, which may cannibalize future sales. We’ve seen iPhone cyclical and seasonal fluctuations forever.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'But all is not well among workers at various Samsung Division because not all will share or share equally with huge bonuses earned by DS semiconductor workers whose Division is now earning the vast majority of Samsung’s revenues and profits. Reuters Samsung appliance workers to stage a rally protesting chip workers’ wage deal Workers in Samsung Electronics’ (005930.KS) smartphone, television and home appliance division ​will stage a rally on July ‌16, their union said, to protest the big bonuses the company’s chip workers have ​negotiated. “Workers in the company’s booming semiconductor ​division recently won a wage deal led ⁠by another union. The non-chip division’s workers ​are expected to receive a bonus ​of 6 million won ($3,900) in treasury shares for 2026, compared to up to 600 million ​won for those at the semiconductor ​division, Yonhap News Agency said. Roughly 2,000 or 3,000 ‌workers ⁠are expected to participate in the rally near Samsung’s headquarters in Suwon, Yonhap reported, citing the largest union for ​workers in ​the company’s ⁠mobiles and consumer electronics division said. The union has about 28,000 ​members. Samsung is expected to flag ​its ⁠operating profit surged about 18-fold from a year earlier in the second quarter, ⁠when ​it releases its earnings estimate ​for the April-June quarter on Tuesday. Excerpt From “Samsung appliance workers to stage a rally protesting chip workers’ wage deal” Reuters https://apple.news/AOd5ScRY8QhyB9ylYqlD0kg This material may be protected by copyright.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Jim Cramer says the market’s reaction to Samsung may signal a shift in AI leadership CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Samsung’s earnings sparked a sell-off in AI hardware stocks, while many tech names that have lagged this year rebounded. He said the session may signal investors are rotating away from AI infrastructure suppliers and back toward the megacap companies driving artificial intelligence spending.” Excerpt From “Jim Cramer says the market’s reaction to Samsung may signal a shift in AI leadership” Alexa LoMonaco CNBC https://apple.news/Ar-_-zNtGR4-OtYFl_WJgWQ This material may be protected by copyright.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Samsung’s analysts had various consensus expectations for Samsung Electronics, of course, heavily buttressed by the Device Solutions DS Semiconductor division’s DRAM and NAND chip foundries exponential rise in revenues, price increases, and huge profits. Here’s articles which discuss why 19x revenue YoY of $111.66B USD and operating (not net) income of $58.43B was already priced into the stock price and although at 6% above consensus, lnot enough to surpass whisper numbers, the typical buy the rumor, sell the news reaction. BTW, the operating profit was more than the last 3 years of profits combined. That should have been a blowout, but investors were fearful that AI spending and memory procurement would moderate sooner than much later. The ironic point is all this success at the Memory and RAM level has likely pushed Samsung MX Mobile and consumer electronics division into a ~$750M USD quarterly loss, first one in history, due to excessive memory costs destroying profitability. wccftech com/samsung-posts-a-shocking-miss-on-revenue-for-q2-2026-at-a-time-when-investors-were-positioned-for-a-pristine-print/ www mexc com /news/1198415'
  • David Drinkwater on Horace Dediu: Where is Nvidia in a decade? - 'I have nothing against picks and shovels, metaphorically. I work in manufacturing, albeit semiconductors. But I think I pretty strongly agree with what you are alluding to: There could well be a pin out there to pop the pick and shovel bubble.'
  • Alan Birnbaum on How Apple hedges foreign exchange fluctuations - 'Very much enlightened- ya gotta ask the right questions ! Tkx !!'
  • David Drinkwater on Horace Dediu: Where is Nvidia in a decade? - 'In the short term, the stock market is a voting machine. In the long term, the stock market is a weighing machine. AAPL has been weighing in for at least the last five years. Sure, 2007 and following were good, but the last five years demonstrate the *stability*.'
  • Bart Yee on How Apple hedges foreign exchange fluctuations - 'The Least Impacted (USD-Priced Global Supply Chains) While still impacted, these companies are insulated because their products are essential, globally standardized commodities that are almost always traded, negotiated, and settled in U.S. dollars. [1, 2] Nvidia (NVDA) & The Semiconductor Sector: Even though a massive percentage of microchips are sold to hardware manufacturers in Asia and Europe, semiconductors are globally priced in U.S. dollars. A strong dollar makes Nvidia’s cutting-edge AI hardware chips more expensive for international buyers, but Nvidia does not suffer from the same “translation losses” as Apple because it doesn’t collect payment in local retail currencies. [1, 2, 3, 4] Tesla (TSLA): Maintains massive manufacturing hubs locally in Germany and China, allowing it to natively match localized costs (wages, local parts) with local sales revenues. This “natural hedge” deeply minimizes the amount of cash that actually needs to be converted across borders compared to peers. [1, 2, 3] Other Vulnerable Tech Sectors Beyond the Magnificent Seven, specific software and hardware sub-sectors feel the heaviest sting from a strong dollar: Enterprise SaaS (e.g., Salesforce, Adobe): Much like Microsoft, these companies rely on recurring global corporate subscriptions that lose value on paper when translated back to a soaring greenback. Hardware and PC Equipment (e.g., HP, Dell): These companies operate on razor-thin profit margins. Because a strong dollar elevates the price of their consumer electronics abroad, even slight currency shifts can wipe out a hardware manufacturer’s net profitability for a quarter. [1, 2] Would you like to look at the specific hedging strategies these tech companies use to shield themselves, or should we examine how the strong dollar is currently affecting the wider U.S. stock market indices?” And that’s where I stopped. Hope you found this enlightening and some insight into other line items and how they were derived in the 10Q earnings report.'
  • Bart Yee on How Apple hedges foreign exchange fluctuations - 'Debt Obligations and Net Cash Neutrality Apple’s cash strategy cannot be viewed in isolation from its debt structure. The Debt Stack: Apple carries $85 billion in total debt (primarily long-term corporate bonds it issued at historically low interest rates). [1, 2, 3] Net Cash Surplus: Subtracting its $85 billion debt from its $146.6 billion total cash gives Apple a highly resilient net cash cushion of $61.6 billion. [1, 2, 3, 4] A Major Strategic Shift: Historically, Apple maintained a formal target of hitting a “net cash neutral” state—meaning they intended to bring their net cash balance down to zero by returning it all to investors. However, during the Q2 2026 Earnings Call, CFO Kevan Parekh explicitly announced that Apple is abandoning net cash neutral as a formal target, choosing instead to evaluate its cash levels and debt independently moving forward. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5] Where the Outflow Goes: The Capital Return Program Despite moving away from a strict net cash neutral deadline, Apple continues to aggressively spend its excess cash flow to maximize shareholder value via two primary channels: [1, 2, 3, 4] The Largest Share Buyback Program in History: Alongside its Q2 2026 earnings release, Apple’s board authorized a fresh, staggering $100 billion share repurchase program. Over the first six months of fiscal 2026 alone, Apple spent $36 billion buying back its own stock to boost Earnings Per Share (EPS). [1, 2, 3, 4] Growing Dividends: The company also raised its quarterly dividend by 4% to $0.27 per share, returning roughly $3.8 billion to shareholders every single quarter. [1, 2] “which of the Mag-7 and other tech stocks are affected by US dollar strength?” “Every single member of the Magnificent Seven and nearly all major U.S. technology companies are negatively affected by U.S. dollar (USD) strength. Because these tech behemoths operate globally, a powerful dollar acts as an automatic tax on their international sales, dragging down growth and compressing margins when foreign currencies are translated back into USD. [1, 2, 3, 4] However, the severity of the impact depends heavily on where their revenue originates and how they structure their businesses. [1] The Most Impacted (High Foreign Consumer & Enterprise Exposure) These companies sell physical goods, software licensing, or localized services directly into foreign currencies, providing them with the highest exposure to USD fluctuations. [1] Apple (AAPL): Generates roughly 55% to 60% of total revenue outside the Americas. Highly vulnerable to localized consumer purchasing power drops. When the dollar surges, Apple must either hike device prices overseas (which harms demand) or take a lower profit margin per unit. [1] Microsoft (MSFT): Derives nearly 50% of its revenue internationally. Because it sells massive, multi-year cloud (Azure) and enterprise software contracts globally, even a 1% shift in the dollar can shave hundreds of millions of dollars off its reported quarterly revenue guidance. [1] Alphabet (GOOGL): Generates over 50% of its revenue outside the United States. Global businesses cut back on digital advertising budgets or demand lower local currency ad rates when their own local economies are pressured by a strong USD, dealing a double blow to Google’s primary revenue engine. [1, 2] The Moderately Impacted (Global but Mixed Structures) These companies have massive international operations but possess structural buffers—like local distribution networks or strict USD-denominated global pricing models—that partially dull the blow. Amazon (AMZN): Receives about 35% to 40% of its revenue from international markets. Its e-commerce segment faces severe foreign exchange translation headwinds, but its highly profitable cloud computing arm, Amazon Web Services (AWS), is frequently priced in USD globally, offering a strong financial cushion. [1, 2, 3, 4] Meta Platforms (META): Maintains a high international ad exposure (nearly 60% of revenue originates abroad). However, Meta’s capital expenditures are almost entirely dollar-denominated in U.S. data centers, and the company has historically utilized highly aggressive currency hedging programs to flatten out quarterly revenue volatility. [1, 2, 3, 4]'