Recent Comments

  • Bart Yee on What the midterm results mean for the AI buildout - 'Joseph, the odds are slim and none, with None being the operative term. When you’re a crooked politician, contriteness, admission, and taking responsibility have already been excised from their thinking and vocabulary. Now the operative actions are to get what you can while you still can, leave a mess behind (as always for Republicans), and make cleanup as difficult as possible for the party elected to replace you. Doing a mea culpa does nothing to pad your Swiss bank account or vacation home outside of the US so why bother, you weren’t accountable to constituents, rule of law or the Constitution before, why start now? Something about changing stripes and seeing true colors, plus rats abandoning ship should be noted here.'
  • Bart Yee on What the midterm results mean for the AI buildout - 'Bill said: “I think there could be very stormy waters in the very near future for the AI hyperscalers and unregulated frontier model pushers. Ironically, regulatory resistance may be what saves some of these companies.” That’s quite prescient, Bill. I’ve been wondering whether the Catch-22 the Hyperscalers faced – keep spending and hope no one asks hard questions about the accounting, or slow spending down and risk the VC / financing / and stock support collapsing now has reasonable cover to be solved by Democrats demanding a slowdown or moratorium on datacenters, giving companies now a chance to cut back “because they had to comply with mandates”, saving face, and hundreds of billions in expenditures. Of course, there will be ripple effects down the construction, energy, water, and infrastructure supply chain, probably quite a few lawsuits about broken contracts, and plenty of continued civic and local opposition now given huge strength and voice. However, it might be the best thing for many companies facing a fast approaching reckoning if someone else forces them to pump the brakes instead of openly admitting their spending was not sustainable. It’ll give them cover as well to face reality about whether there’s any real short or long term ROI to Cloud and Datacenter based AI, and continued movement toward commoditization, a question everyone else is asking, and Hyperscalers keep dodging.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple price target changes - 'Oh don’t worry Greg, there’s still plenty of time for His Orange Highness to wreak/reek/wreck havoc on the economy, stock market and world by petty, ill-conceived, self-serving and double dealing actions to help his fellow grifters and family while trying to inflict as much damage before they forcefully drag him out of the White House. You’ll always have a few more dips to count on coming. Trump has plenty of time to toss out more Black Swans to the market while he self-roasts his lame duck ass in a last gasp flaming blaze of orange glory, or shall we say “Orange Chicken”? That last quip is apropos because Orange Chicken is boneless.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple price target changes - 'John Konopka said: “Given their cautious nature I suspect they’d wait a while to be sure it wasn’t a temporary swing.” This is very true, but Apple has already bought and paid for a significant amount of DRAM at previous or recent high prices which is already in the pipeline for products. What is also not generally known is Memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron for DRAM and Kioxia for NAND Flash) have all required purchasers to buy long term contracts (6mo to 3 years) worth of memory to 1) force buyers to compete and drive up prices, 2) fix and establish long term pricing to maintain prices as long as possible, 3) cushion the fall if HBM memory demand suddenly falls off a cliff. It’s not terribly ethical, and there’s been some debate whether it’s collusion or unlawful, but here we are. Now if and when memory prices drop meaningfully, AND supply is sufficient to meet demand so that there’s enough or more than enough to go around, then Apple could begin to see some relief in memory pricing. However, memory prices are unlikely to fall quickly given the general pent up demand for DRAM as production lines were switched over to make HBM memory which constrained DRAM production and supply. In essence, any true memory chip price reductions would not likely induce an Apple finished product price reduction for at least 6 months, if not an entire product cycle, or a year. That lag won’t look good to most but it isn’t instantaneous to drop prices, and it isn’t good business to sacrifice improving margins just to look good to the public. I guarantee all smartphone and PC makers will also maintain prices until someone decides market share and sales are more important than margins.'
  • Gregg Thurman on What the midterm results mean for the AI buildout - 'Shorts perform a vital role in the market. Whether the market goes up or down, Shorts set support. As an equity goes down, at some point the Shorts buy shares back in order to return borrowed shares. They bought low and sold high, just not in the order most people understand. As an equity goes up the Shorts buy back the shares they borrowed and sold, supporting further gains in the shorted shares. One thing to consider with AAPL Shorts: most are expressed with options. Calls are sold with the expectation that the underlying shares are going to go down. Puts are bought with same expectation. In either case if the investor is wrong, unwinding the Short position bolsters the longs.'
  • Steven Philips on What the midterm results mean for the AI buildout - 'Well, it IS electric and those shorts can deliver quite a shock! 🙂'
  • Greg Boyd on Apple price target changes - 'I haven’t run out of runway or patience but if Apple share price keeps increasing I may run out of options …..literally out of options. I mean can an honest trader get a pullback for a couple of months?'
  • Richard Gayle on Apple bungee jumps to $349.51, a new record close - 'The market always loves certainty and the Midterms gave us certainty. I suspect the moderates will be going after tariffs, and the progressives going after investigations/subpoenas. Both will want re-engagement with out allies. They likely both support Ukraine and will work to find a peace with Iran. All those should make the markets happy. we shall see.'
  • Darren DMW on Apple bungee jumps to $349.51, a new record close - 'Interesting that AAPL has traded above $350 in pre-market, open market and after hours on numerous days recently, but just can’t close over $350. Is tomorrow the day?'
  • Roger Schutte on Apple bungee jumps to $349.51, a new record close - 'I missed the absolute low Monday after hours but I was able to buy a pile that night at 227 to 227.6. I can trade till 8pm at Fidelity.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple bungee jumps to $349.51, a new record close - 'Man, did all those after-hours dumpers of AAPL following earnings just get spanked! And yes, I’m havin’ a laugh! Congrats to all those who had the gumption yesterday AM to beat everyone to the punch!'
  • Greg Lippert on Apple bungee jumps to $349.51, a new record close - 'I am just elated that the results were so decisive that there was no blood on the streets. I was afraid that Trump was going to pull shenanigans. Go Democracy!'
  • Greg Lippert on Apple bungee jumps to $349.51, a new record close - 'I made $$$ on the earning/election swing. Cause it was a lotta noise.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Hi, John. By the present time (4:44 PM PST), AAPL daily trade volume hit 89 M, per the Apple Stocks app…. BTW, while very high, we’ve seen over 100 M in the last few years. IMO, the only reason it isn’t 100 M is – buybacks. But you knew I’d say that, right? Also, at an EPS of 8.98, we’ll hit a 40 valuation again at about $360/share. Every quarter that goes by we see blue sky as the AAPL float dries up…'
  • Rodney Avilla on What the midterm results mean for the AI buildout - 'Regarding Tesla, I would not bet against Musk. To be clear, I would not bet on him; I do not (nor will I ever) own Tesla stock- too volatile and uncertainty). But it is a fun stock to watch, probably because it always changing. But I would not bet against him. Just ask Bill Gates, who has lost an estimated $1.5 billion to (probably closer to) $10 billion by shorting Tesla stock.'
  • Jonny T on Apple price target changes - 'Tim Long at Barclays makes the same insane projections year in and year out. One day the truth will out, because there can be no rational explanation for it…'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Apple bungee jumps to $349.51, a new record close - 'The market always likes a divided government. Oil drops. Apple had a record 4-Q. Now they’re reaping the rewards by having a first time ever Monday earnings report. BTW, John Ternus was just fine on the earnings call.'
  • David Emery on Apple bungee jumps to $349.51, a new record close - 'And consider the price targets posted here on the previous post… Will Apple have to give back money to meet some of them?'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Well, Ternus’s decision to do Earnings before the Election paid off, as any negative views of the guidance were swamped and then some by the election results and positive rising sentiment for Apple and AAPL shares, IMO. A nice, ho hum steady up day for AAPL shares, hitting a new all time intraday high ATIDH of $354.47 (up as high as +$23, +6.8%) and a slight pullback at the close to $349.51, to a gain of $17.61, +5.31%, and a new All Time Closing High ATCH, 2nd in last 5 trading sessions. Volume was a heavy 85M shares. Wonder what the shorts are contemplating now? I’m sure some will say “the stock has gotten way ahead of itself, so I’ll double down and short again from here.” Please do!! I read on a Yahoo Finance page comment that “no way AAPL should be this high, on any normal metric the stock is only worth about $60.” That’s why there are so many haters out there, AAPL stock and its investors can’t seem to understand why every Talking Head wants to rate this company as a simple hardware stock that MUST stick to its 5 year, no, 10 year, no, 15 year PE average (or whatever metric makes it look way overvalued), otherwise the Talking Heads’ heads just explode and can’t make sense of it. Yesterday, one of the CNBC hacks said AAPL was still to rich at $332 and a forward PE of 36, there’s no way it’s going higher with a measly 9-11% revenue growth rate, he said he’d rather own Google here because it’s already been beaten down, and has a PE of only 15, because it’s cheap and that cheap is because its earnings are so high, or its price is so low (at $288 today, it’s down 30% from its $407 May 2026 52 week high, that’s not just correction territory or a bear market, that’s a Crash! ). I guess he loves a bargain that just might go lower if the AI bubble bursts further, I mean it will eventually retake that high, right?'
  • Romeo Esparrago on Apple bungee jumps to $349.51, a new record close - 'I’m elated! Cowabunga!'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Apple volume today was >71M. Huge.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Apple price target changes - '“Or other peoples’ reports” I long determined that financial advisors do not have the time to closely follow (like we do on PED 3.0) all the stocks that are relevant to their clientele. It didn’t take me long to realize that I knew much more about Apple (management, products, R&D) than my advisor did. If they are lucky, they may follow 1 or 2 as I follow Apple. For the rest of the stocks they are advising on, they rely of other advisors or analysts who they trust (who also major on 1 or 2 stocks). So in reality, my advisor may ‘know’ 1 or 2, but rely on others for recommendations on all other stocks. I feel very fortunate that the 1 stock that I follow closely just happens to be Apple.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple price target changes - 'Hi, Richard, Apple doesn’t need more cash, which is why there are buybacks in the first place. Also, let’s remember that everyone, not just Apple, will benefit from any lowered price for RAM. Finally, unless the Republicans start seriously waving a white flag, which I pessimistically and possibly cynically do not expect, they will stonewall for the next two months, and join this Administration in doing as much damage as they can. We won a battle, IMO. The War goes on, and opponents (I can’t call them the “loyal opposition”) still have a LOT of firepower they can direct. My opinion: It’s too soon for live and let live.'
  • Joseph Bland on What the midterm results mean for the AI buildout - 'The rest, assuming sanity now returns to the Republican Party and they do a major mea culpa plus a bunch of good deeds, will hopefully get what they deserve.'
  • Joseph Bland on What the midterm results mean for the AI buildout - 'Afternoon, Steven. “We will see just what sorts of sweetheart deals were made wrt datacenters, SpaceX, etc.” I hope so, but this gang of pirates has two months to cover their tracks – unless the Republican Party fesses up to their sins and does a 180. Starting today. What are the odds of that happening?'
  • Joseph Bland on What the midterm results mean for the AI buildout - 'Correction, Steven: You have to factor in the number of folks who didn’t vote, and of that cohort, the number of Republicans, Independents, Libertarians, etcetera the PURPOSEFULLY didn’t vote, thus voting to let the Democrats kick ass. A non-vote is still a vote, when it comes down to something as historic as what just happened. So a lot more than 50% “got what they asked for”, and changed the course of history.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple price target changes - 'BTW, the horrible bet I lost was betting on GTAT, and holding it into the ground. And why? In the years following the Great Recession and Before Buybacks, AAPL was valued, as Horace Dediu put it, “like a steel mill going out of business. This in spite of the recent introduction of the iPhone. I literally lost hope that Apple would be able to provide us a retirement. But then, Apple’s buybacks started to finally take hold, and slowly but surely we were made whole. To say I learned a lesson by that experience is an understatement.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple price target changes - 'Hi, Neal. You said that you think Apple “can grow into its present valuation.” You’re SO close to groking in fullness (sci fi reference) why Apple is worth every penny of a 40 P/E ratio! Free cash flow is continually driving the valuation higher over the years, because it funds Apple’s buybacks. It doesn’t seem like buybacks do much, but, like so many things, it’s cumulative. Every share we still own was acquired before we were forced into retirement following the Great Recession. Except for one horrible moment when I gambled (and lost!), we have been 100% invested in AAPL. But. Each of those shares has now nearly doubled in the percentage of Apple that it owns. I leave it to you to work out what that means in terms of the remaining shares since Apple started buybacks, factoring in the growth over time in free cash flow – which, as simple cash, is given almost zero value in the investment world. EVERYBODY is looking at Apple’s cash over debt and growing free cash flow, but almost nobody is looking at the cash that Apple has “invested” from past free cash flow in rewarding long term investors, or talks about it. The average Apple paid for those shares is almost absurdly low compared to what a share is worth today. That represents ROI that has been accumulating for 13 years – and continues to accumlate. Buybacks are not a “gimmick”: Buybacks are a legitimate investment, and the ROI goes to those who hold Apple long term. Donna and I took out an “insurance policy” when Donald Trump was elected two years back. For many long term investors here, it’s not much, but it meant selling AAPL, putting it into cash in a Fidelity savings account to at least shelter it from inflation, and then topping it up with more cash. We missed out on the AAPL gains we would have made if we hadn’t done that, but insurance costs.money, and we were rewarded enough over the years by owning Apple that we could afford it. It seems crazy to some to bet your whole wad on one company. But here we are, and here we intend to stay. It really turned out to not be such a crazy idea after all – if the company was Apple….'
  • Robert Stack on Apple price target changes - 'Paraphrasing what Smith-Barney used to say: “Apple makes money the old-fashioned way – they EARN it!” 🙂'