Recent Comments

  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'The major indexes are in the green in afternoon trading. Apple continues to move lower. The shares are currently down $2.98 at $301.93. Cisco, which reports earnings after the market’s close today, is up $2.56 or 2.13% at $122.99. Apple supplier Corning is ahead $8.16 or 5.13% at $167.35. Vertiv, a major data center supplier, is up $11.30 or 4.01% at $293.11. On the S&P 500, Super Micro is leading the index with an 18.20% gain followed by Lumentum Holdings which is up 17.86% on strong results. We’ll see how the day finishes out…'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'In dental office, so quick comment: I LOVE that Apple gets to buy back shares at this price!!!'
  • David Emery on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'But it’s a seller’s market, so Samsung could tell then “pound sand, we’ll sell to others without that clause.” HOWEVER, it wouldn’t surprise me to learn (not that anyone would talk about it) that Apple’s contracts with Samsung and other suppliers already include similar clauses. How Apple contracts with long-term major suppliers (e.g. separate contracts, or umbrella contract with separate delivery agreements, or something else) is something I really can’t guess about.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Red Sox vs. Yankees on Apple Vision Pro - '”And with zero carbon footprint for the flights!” Now there’s a thought. If/when Apple Vision Pro is universally available for sports fans, I wonder how that might impact air travel, car rentals, hotel and restaurant bookings. 1%-2%? 3%?'
  • Gregg Thurman on Red Sox vs. Yankees on Apple Vision Pro - '”Looking forward to Yankees vs Red Sox.” It’s happening much, much slower than I thought it would, but there is movement towards universal Vision Pro sports viewing. I just hope I get to watch a 3D Jayhawks basketball game before I die. Currently I rarely watch anything (basketball) not based in Leavenworth, KS. With Vision Pro availability I might start watching SEC, ACC, Big10, SWC and Big East games. If they are all conference subscriptions I may have to pare down the list, or do pay per view. Either way I can see my sports viewing bill skyrocketing, and we haven’t even gotten to Formula One.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - '”It could well be that Samsung can leverage its internal advantages as both supplier and consumer, but that’s a case that so far is not proving out.” I’ll bet firms buying components from Samsung are including a MFN clause in their purchase agreements, guaranteeing best price.'
  • Kemble Widmer on Red Sox vs. Yankees on Apple Vision Pro - 'Now do NBA and NCAA Basketball.'
  • Ron Fredrick on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - '@ Robert Paul Leitao – Nicely stated, Robert. My wife and I also get a new iPhone every year. And I very much agree with what you said about Counterpoint Research. 🙂'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - '” Mostly I’ve been reacting to #2, and the lack of ‘deep thought’ among analysts” That summarizes my feelings pretty well.'
  • David Emery on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'We’re considering two separable issues: 1. what actually happens in The Real World ™ 2. what’s going on in the minds of ANALysts Mostly I’ve been reacting to #2, and the lack of ‘deep thought’ on memory prices.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'David: Among the factors involved in the price increases is concerns by the domestic component makers the current spike in demand may be cyclical (not structural) and they are quite hesitant to consider and green light large scale capex commitments to create more units. Prices for many goods are moving higher and supply constraints in various product markets have been a challenge in, through and after the pandemic period. Deglobalization is another factor putting pressure on prices. Whether it be smartphones, new cars, or many consumables, prices are likely to continue to rise. From a competitive standpoint, Apple has the resources to amply pay for what it wants and for what the company’s customers desire.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'Price increases are going to negatively impact consumers on the edge Fortunately for Apple that “edge” is higher than it is for Android consumers. Throw in that Apple has margins unmatched by its competitors, to offer finance programs such as very low cost leasing. There’s a reason so many acquire their Apple products through carrier plans…most buy on installments, not via cash. As a sample group we are not reflective of the majority of Apple consumers. I think Apple has looked at the cost of subsidized financing and made decisions that maximize unit sales, gross margins and revenue. I think our discussions here, on this subject, is akin to flogging a dead horse with incomplete data. Apple has already provided us with the only real data point we require: guidance. Guidance contains all the factors we have access to from the periphery and data we don’t have. Apple has guided up to 11% revenue growth YoY for the September quarter. That’s on top of last year’s reported 8% gain and continues the 3 quarter trend of double digit YoY growth. I’m not lamenting all the negative factors that may impact Apple’s revenue, I’m celebrating that group, having much better knowledge than I, are guiding so strongly, despite those factors.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'More than a device maker, Apple is a customer relationship continuum. I’ve said this countless times. I acquire a new iPhone every year. My wife acquires a new iPhone every year. I have an iMac downstairs in the house and another iMac upstairs for late evening work. We have iPads all over the house. I wear an Apple Watch 24/7, swapping them out once a day. I provide Apple One for 6 members of the household at the bargain price of $39.95 per month. Nothing on this earth is likely to move me from my Apple product acquisition and use patterns, certainly not this note from Counterpoint Research. If Counterpoint would really like to know why Apple customers will continue to acquire iPhones, Macs, iPads and related accessories, the answers will come from the company’s customers, not spreadsheets suggesting component prices are moving higher for Apple and others.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'Thank you, Roger! I don’t know why the issue of higher costs is capturing so much press attention. Apple captures the imagination. The press creates only intrigue. The consumer provides the answer. By the hundreds of millions they continue to buy new iPhones and keep demand high on pre-owned iPhone handsets.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'On a day in which the S&P 500 ended lower by 24.91 points at 7,728.20, KK&R led the gainers on the index. The firm’s share price rose $7.14 to finish at $110.97, up 6.88%. KKR was closely followed by Apollo Global Management which rose $8.26 or 6.26% to close at $140.28. KKR and Apollo were among the leading financial firms that are partnering with NVIDIA on AI infrastructure investments to create a new investment class. Apple closed off $3.35 or 1.09% at $304.91. In comments I’ve heard, Apple’s forward multiple of over 32x expected earnings is a bit high. In other words, any “news” about Apple, such as the Jefferies downgrade yesterday may put the share price under pressure. I expect a recovery to the company’s pre-June quarter earnings trading range over the next several weeks. But that’s my view. I think Apple has a lot to deliver as we move into fall.'
  • Greg Bates on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'I think the problem is incorrectly framed, and I credit David Emery’s post for helping me stumble onto this. Rising costs don’t affect market share if every producer faces the same rise. But they could affect number of devices sold if people slow their upgrading to save money. That’s a negative effect ,even if the margins are steady.On the plus side, the bigger the innovations, the more people will want to upgrade now now now.'
  • Steven Philips on Mark Gurman disputes the facts behind Jefferies' Apple downgrade - 'Well, this time it doesn’t appear Gurrrman is moving the market! A semi positive contradiction to Jeffries and the market is still going down.'
  • Neal Guttenberg on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'Fred and the group, I agree with what everyone has talked about but I do think that there is some demand that is probably perishable. There will be some switchers, especially if Apple makes a mistake on the pricing. But I don’t think it will be enough to make a measurable difference in the long term. And I don’t think that the other companies are immune to this as well. Apple may well start to pick up market share because of pricing at the other companies. For me and most of the long termers, this is another blip on the radar. I wasn’t expecting Apple to go to 340 so some retrenchment doesn’t bother me too much. I did think the share price got ahead of itself. And it doesn’t matter if Edison Lee is right about the share price in the short term. Long term, I think he is wrong as are his premises for the downgrade.'
  • Jonny T on Red Sox vs. Yankees on Apple Vision Pro - 'Although I know next to nothing about baseball, I will definitely be ‘there’. And with zero carbon footprint for the flights!'
  • Jonny T on Fortune jumps on Monday's Apple downgrade with both feet - 'As ever I shall enjoy watching much more green than red over the rest of the year despite the best efforts of the Tarts of Fortune. When I see Fortune I move on, life is too short for their nonsense.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Red Sox vs. Yankees on Apple Vision Pro - 'I haven’t used my AVP much lately, but wouldn’t trade it for the world. I plan to talk my daughter-in-law to take my original (for home schooling) and I plan to get the newer one. And watch the game. A couple years back I went to a Yankee-Boston game in NY. Talk about rivalry!'
  • Rodney Avilla on Mark Gurman disputes the facts behind Jefferies' Apple downgrade - 'The usual FUD from the usual suspects” I was just thinking this morning that the normal times for FUD is right before quarterly reports and right before new major product releases. Whether it is an attempt to lower the price more so that it goes up higher, or hoping that the reports are disappointing, and the price goes lower. Either way, FUD has become pretty easy to identify.'
  • Fred Stein on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'Tune out the noise. Katy Huberty nailed it long ago. “Demand is not perishable”. Apple customers won’t switch. Trust Apple to sort out prices, margins, and timing of future products. Ignore speculations built on speculation.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'In afternoon trading Apple continues its decline that began yesterday with the Jefferies downgrade. The shares are off $2.18 at $306.08. On the day the major indexes remain mixed.'
  • David Emery on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'The arguments about ‘market share’ seem to be based on the idea that Apple products will have price increases IN EXCESS of their competitors, i.e. that Apple alone will suffer from memory/other component supply shortages. This seems to me to be a stupid perspective. It could well be that Samsung can leverage its internal advantages as both supplier and consumer, but that’s a case that so far is not proving out. Apparently Samsung isn’t cutting major deals for components to other Samsung entities. (Has anyone seen credible analysis, either way?)'
  • Steven Philips on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'I think leasing will catch on quickly! 🙂 It makes even more sense with the higher prices. Just like with cars.'
  • Roger Schutte on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'Apple will sell every iPhone 18 they can make just like it’s been for 10 months now with iPhone 17. I see no reason to not price Pro + Pro Max models with regular company margins.'
  • Daniel Epstein on Fortune jumps on Monday's Apple downgrade with both feet - 'If history repeats itself then this would appear to be a “huge” buying opportunity. It would be great if it is just a rhyme of the past. I am amazed how many people make assumptions on assumptions to make decisions. The worry contingent always seem to ignore the future benefits of Apple’s sales weeks before the announcements will make things clear.'
  • Alan Birnbaum on Fortune jumps on Monday's Apple downgrade with both feet - 'I think it’s called ‘vibe’ investing It will ‘Vibe’ you out !!'
  • Neal Guttenberg on Fortune jumps on Monday's Apple downgrade with both feet - 'Instead of doing any independent research, investigation or analysis, Fortune is now investing in a follow the leader type of journalism.'