Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/29-7/3/26) - 'Fred: I know you to be a smart, savvy and thoughtful gentleman. As bullish as I am on Apple at this time, how do you see the company starting a 10-year super cycle with Apple AI?'
on Daniel Ives: Apple held off as long as they could (video) - 'Working within the semiconductor integrated supply chain function, I think I have some analogies to share. We make silicon die and “sell them”, 99% within our own company, the remaining 1% direct to external customers. As such, we are “suppliers”. But we are also customers. We buy raw silicon. We buy chemicals that we use to clean and etch our wafers. We buy chemicals and services to “implant” into our wafers.’ Nowadays, lots of our vendors squeeze us. “We’re discontinuing this chemical.” (Isopropyl alcohol FFS! OK, find another vendor: not a huge deal, because the IPA does not go *into* the silicon. BBr3: oops, that’s a big deal, because that is one of the chemicals/dopants we use to make the transistors and electrical interconnects in our devices.) Some of these new source qualifications (verifications of goodness) require 1000 hours of stress cycling. That takes 6 weeks no matter what, but it really takes closer to ten because of back and forth transactions. And we had to get the Die built into packages, typically a 6 weeks cycle. And make the wafers with the intentional change injected at the right point in the process, probably 12 weeks minimum. So very quickly, that takes half a year, and some customers, even if we shipped their part internal to my company before they ever got shipped to the end customer, then want to do their *own* verifications, which can add another 6 months. And god forbid you have two different vendor changes to qualify. Customers sometimes force you to wait until you can coordinate both – strictly for their convenience. Based solely on my professional experience at the bottom end of the supply chain, I give Apple a lot of credit for not putting out price increases log ago.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/29-7/3/26) - 'I was completely wrong about a Vision Pro announcement, but I continue to believe it is going to be a huge success, just as soon as they fix its screen constraint. Where before I was certain Apple had done it, I have no thoughts about it now.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/29-7/3/26) - 'Agree Gregg, ignore the noise. AI created the memory supply / demand imbalance impacting device makers and hyperscalars. So who hurts the least? Apple can pass the cost to its price-insensitive demographic, with no need to borrow nor impact cash flow or rack up CAPEX (subject future write down.) Even if unit sales drop for a bit, as Katy Huberty said; “Demand is not perishable”.'
on Apple vs. Russia - 'I managed the creation of the very first Russian version of the Mac OS — 6.0.5, never released. I lived in Moscow and worked with a team of free-lance engineers in a brick office building that had been converted from a church. I brought two of them to Cupertino to finalize the build in 1991.Most Soviet software engineers had heard of Apple, some had even seen an Apple II, but no one had every owned a Macintosh computer, except for one automobile plant in Moscow (the Macs came from Germany). I also had to find Russian language fonts, which came from Stepan Patchikov, the late creator of Evernote and key software for the original Newton. Russia then was truly greenfield, so this was a chance to open the world’s largest country to the world of Apple. I was forced to leave Moscow before any Apple product was available; I believe a MacBook was used to introduce a Russian language version to the Russian market a year or two later. Doing business in Russia is never easy, and often a story of overcoming countless roadblocks and handicaps. Today it’s even worse, with a hot war that is worse than during the Cold war.'
on Saturday Apple video: What motivated Steve Jobs - 'Yes, but remember that even through medical protocols pancreatic cancer had very low survival rates at that time. It’s better now but still one of the lowest. On a different note, that picture shows so much joy. Contrast it to Zuck and Chan or Bezo and what’s her name. Jobs rules!'
on Saturday Apple video: What motivated Steve Jobs - 'I loved this, but it angers me that Jobs ignored his doctor’s advice for pancreatic cancer and followed a pseudoscientific diet until it was too late. Imagine the impact his inspirational leadership could have today. Compare his commencement speech to the ones many tech bros gave this year. We desperately need leaders like him. We’ll find them, but he would have helped that happen sooner. No one like him in my lifetime. Sorry, Need to blow my nose. Inspirational leadership got stuck in my eye. 🙂'
on Saturday Apple video: What motivated Steve Jobs - 'Inspiring! It’s very cool that he shared so much of his personal journey with the world – to our benefit!'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'That’s what I was thinking too. Although that’ll depend on when the options vest. I’m sure everyone’s pushing for the shortest vesting period possible. That said, I’m guessing he’s already a rich guy. I have to remind myself that most people aren’t like me and motivated more by working with the best people on interesting and challenging things, than jumping top whoever’s going to pay me the most. I also would never work for Sam Altman. Or any other snakeoil salesman.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'If nothing else, thanks for reminding us that Volume speaks almost as loudly as Price.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Joseph, how do we have a Yo-Yo casino when Apple has taken out 37% of AAPL’s float over the past decade as you are so fond of pointing out? It’s not yet July, a so-called blackout month so Apple is still out there with the “possibility” of buying back shares what was yesterday a -13% discount from its all time intraday high set 18 days ago. Yet a several days before today you were speaking glowingly of AAPL clawing its way back up from $290 back over $300 and on its way back (eventually) to near All Time Highs of $315. I absolutely understand how you, I and a lot of AAPL longs felt when yesterday’s knee-jerk reaction to Apple’s price hikes on select iPads and Macs caused a significant drop ON PAPER (mine was a higher 6 figure) to our investments. Yet, like Robert has been saying, we’ve been here before, (twice, back in Dec. 2025 and April 30-May 4th), for some, it’s just a bump in the road, soon to be left behind in the rear view mirror. For others a (another) buying opportunity for our favorite company navigating its way through yet another unprecedented EXTERNAL event affecting its operations. Frankly, this isn’t like previous stock markets of the 90’s and 2000’s where AAPL was buffeted by huge swings, ITS WORSE!! Why? Because there’s trillions more dollars out there chasing every cent of profits, much faster, more sophisticated program, algorithmic, hell, even AI trading at even higher speed and magnitudes higher volumes than ever before. Rapid movement of stock market liquidity in and out, back and forth, sector to sector, stock to stock, and of course, the geopolitical uncertainty that underlies all of this – it’s mind blowing and frankly mind numbing. While we fret (a little) on daily market postings and some of the AAPL gyrations, we still have plenty to be thankful for from Apple, AAPL and its management threading through uncharted rapids and rocks. I for one am quite happy that yesterday’s irrational sell off of over $275 billion in market cap was reversed by 48% today meaning there was $132 billion net cap flowing back to the stock, telling me there’s investors like us who are logically thinking through Apple’s moves, deeming them necessary and correct, and knowing/feeling the future for Apple and AAPL is still upward. Yesterday’s drop volume was 107M shares, double normal volume. Today’s volume was over 260M shares(!!!) so large institutions must be piling back in because that’s about $72B worth of trading today. The market is what it is, a place where everyone is trying to make or save a buck, so there’s always the competing interests, actions, and motivations of everyone involved. I’d suggest just focusing on what you need to do to have Apple be your nest egg and retirement funding source. If you didn’t need to sell anything recently, then you’re not affected at all except psychologically, so time to go outside and enjoy the California weather.'
on The price hikes have landed - 'Bart asked: “What foundry has the spare capacity and cost effective production to make them [memory chips]?” Maybe Intel? It would be a good time for them to enter this business if they had the capability to make them.'
