Bart Yee on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'On the memory front, Martin and Wall Street keep fretting about memory makers like Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and Kioxia raising prices as they “artificially” restrict supply by saying they are pivoting to higher production of HBM AI server driven memory. Will this affect Apple, eventually? If the all consumer facing memory production changes hold, no additional capacity is brought online, and the price increases stick, yes, of course they will be a concern for Apple. But because of Apple’s dominant position in premium smartphones and that iPhone users will buy up in memory, Apple has more buying and price “leverage” for quantity ordering than any single or grouped Android makers. Also, since Apple eliminated the 128gb tier NAND Storage memory in all but the 16e, Apple can stock more of just 256gb, 513gb, and 1TB pieces, and order less different parts, leaving Android to fight over 64GB and 128gb memory to save money. Since Apple already “raised prices” by making the 256gb tier the base or standard across all new models, and 1) kept prices the same on base iPhone 17, creating a great value, and 2) essentially raising the base price on the Pro and Pro Max models to $1099 & $1199 respectively, Apple has neutralized or at least normalized the sticker shock already. Since we just saw Apple print an $85B+ iPhone Quarter where the ASP was variously calculated at $1011 (Counterpoint smartphone Revenue roundup for the Q4CY2025), and from $1028 to $1049 by me, it’s quite obvious Apple upgraders, buyers and some switchers had no problems buying “up” on the prices charged for base and upgraded memory configurations. What about DDR5 and LPDDR5/5X DRAM, particularly high-capacity modules as used in smartphones? High end smartphones particularly use this RAM and it has already begun to rise precipitously. TH Roh of Samsung has hinted Samsung may need to raise prices of all goods with memory, and Counterpoint and others have said between 6-8%. Now many analysts suggest memory could cost as much as 20% of the cost of smartphones, but midrange and low price tiers see memory as a higher percentage than premium models. I suspect Apple has already preordered as much memory as they can get for this year’s production and some for partial iPhone 18 production. Also, since Apple silicon and iOS/MacOS works so well together, Apple does not have to cut back on DRAM to still work very efficiently. Android makers may decide to reduce RAM to maintain prices, or otherwise face increasing prices but risk losing sales. If and when Apple must raise prices, they may not lose much in sales because of the spending power of its users.'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'Tesla looks to be getting out of the car business, and Musk wants to merge it with SpaceX. Seems Wall St will bless whatever Musk comes up with.'
on Saturday Apple video: Steve Jobs anticipates genAI (1983) - 'I still think back to the Knowledge Navigator video. Siri isn’t quite there yet, but with a little boost from AI, I think that the Knowledge Navigator is essentially real within 24 months. It would be kinda neat to see Apple release it formally.'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'In my observation it takes about three weeks for the market to adjust Apple’s share price to a level that reflects the most recent quarterly results and management’s forward forecasts. It’s been only a day. If you have strong conviction Apple is undervalued post earnings, buy the stock.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'His response actually made me laugh. Of course Tim Long has continued to insist AAPL is a strong sell… but still marking his target price higher! He’s the perfect trailing indicator, and must be proud that his prediction is consistently quite accurate, albeit a year late.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - 'Interesting. If you take the Q1 EPS shown in the chart since 2020 and chart it the linear trend line makes a good fit. R**2 of about 0.9.'
on Apple's blowout Q1 2026 in five easy charts - 'Lucky I am a big enough Neil Young fan to get the joke. Very good.'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'PPS: AAPL volume today was 82.3 M as of 2 PM California time. Very healthy. Eat your heart out, Max Pain gamblers!'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'Also, the P/E is ~34 so perhaps a lot of the good news is already priced in. That’s a trailing earnings multiple. Forward multiple is even lower'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'Given the market overall is in the red (including gold and silver), any green is a positive. (Too many colors in that sentence)'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'According to my screen Apple shares just turned positive for the day. So while not an overwhelming positive response a good bounce from the negative response at the beginning of the day. So maybe the knee jerk reaction from this morning is fading.'
on Apple's 2nd largest acquisition is a startup with tech to read micro facial movements - 'Apple paid $3 Billion for Beats. Now $2 Billion for this company. From what I can tell this flew under the radar screen. One article mentioned that the same person had previously sold his prior company to Apple about 10 or 12 years earlier for around $345 Million.'
on Apple's 2nd largest acquisition is a startup with tech to read micro facial movements - 'Well, I jinxed it! Hopefully it’s just on its “normal” pattern of dropping even on good news, then slowly moving up. I hate the waiting.'
on Apple blows past expectations and its shares fall. What gives? - 'Oh Tommo! Keep beating that dead horse. Here’s his newest post headline. “Apple/AAPL Q2: Another “Blowout” Quarter From A Company That’s Quietly Running Out Of Future”'
