Joseph Bland on How 'mysterious' John Ternus got Hollywood eating out of his hand - 'BTW, I see now why Apple feels obliged to split shares. Can you imagine owning AAPL that was worth 1/457th of $17,203,503.94 or (17204504/457=) $37,647/share? Yikes! PS – I said above “…so today’s split-adjusted share at about $11,000/share.” Should have said “so today’s non-split-adjusted share at about $11,000/share.”'
on How 'mysterious' John Ternus got Hollywood eating out of his hand - 'Stephen, you’ll have to ask yourself – the new iPhone Duo will cost you 6-10 shares of AAPL stock at $340/share depending on which model and storage you buy. You could use them and enjoy them, show them off to friends and, unless there are mechanical, electrical or cosmetic issues, likely be able to resell them or trade in with good value left. Or you could acquire them, seal in a controlled collector space and wait 10-15 years (like an unopened boxed original iPhone) and see what you could get for it then. Difference is original iPhone was pretty unique and only 6.1M total were sold. Of those, here’s a rough breakdown from Gemini: • “4GB Model ($499): This is by far the rarest variant. Because users overwhelmingly preferred the extra storage of the 8GB model for just $100 more, it suffered from lagging sales. Apple discontinued the 4GB version on September 5, 2007, just over two months after launch. Today, unopened 4GB models are highly prized collectors’ items, fetching record prices at auction. • 8GB Model ($599 original / $399 later): This was the flagship powerhouse of the original lineup, accounting for the vast majority of overall sales. When Apple killed off the 4GB model in September 2007, they dropped the price of this 8GB version to $399, causing sales to skyrocket through the holiday season. • 16GB Model ($499): Introduced late to the game on February 5, 2008, to satisfy demands for more music and video storage. It was only on the market for about five months before the entire first-generation lineup was completely discontinued in July 2008.“ No telling exactly how many of the last two were sold but I’d have to say both sold over 2-2.5M, even with limited market time. So rarity does dictate value for collectors. That would mean the 1TB and 2TB versions would be the rarest Duo models. And Duo probably would sell, IMO, 7-15M over a 1 year lifespan. If the Duo was kept for sale for 2 years unchanged, then maybe 20M+. The crazy thing is, balance the potential collector value increase of an unopened Boxed Duo, vs the price appreciation of those 10 AAPL shares (or more if you’re buying multiples of Duo’s – Duals of Duo’s? 🙂 ) and what they would be worth 10-15 years from now. Tough choice. I had the same dilemma when I bought my 2000 Porsche Boxster S – $65K out the door in early 2000 at the height of the dot com boom, bought by Intel stock at the time (not accounting for the capital gains taxes paid). Here’s Gemini again on what I would have today: “If you had invested $65,000 in Intel at its March 2000 peak unadjusted price of $131.94, you would have purchased 492.65 original shares. Following the 2-for-1 stock split on July 31, 2000, your holding would have doubled to 985.30 total shares. Today, with Intel trading at $108.60 per share, those shares would be worth $107,003.18.“ Barely kept up with inflation and my Boxster was/is a depreciating asset (plus sunk costs of repairs, maintenance and fuel (especially at today’s prices), worth $10-16K but still running after 26 years and a very enjoyable drive. Even a 911 of that vintage is still only worth around $20-32K. As a fun exercise, what if it was AAPL stock instead? “At its March 2000 unadjusted intraday peak of $142.24 per share, a $65,000 investment would have initially secured you 456.97 original shares. However, since March 2000, Apple has split its stock 4 separate times: • June 21, 2000: 2-for-1 split • Feb. 28, 2005: 2-for-1 split • June 9, 2014: 7-for-1 split • Aug 31, 2020: 4-for-1 split These corporate actions created a 112-to-1 compounding split multiplier ((2 x 2 x 7 x 4)). Your initial 456.97 shares would have multiplied into an incredible 51,181.10 shares today. With Apple now trading at $336.13 per share, the final calculation represents generation-defining wealth: Current Portfolio Value: $17,203,503.94 Total Principal Return: +26,366.9%” Nice but sometimes tortuous to think about. But hey YOLO and you were making the “best” decision at the time. Maybe. 🙂'
on Saturday Apple video: Asking Steve Jobs about the Blackberry (2008) - 'iPhone didn’t kill BlackBerry, buttons did. BlackBerry had them and iPhone didn’t.'
on Saturday Apple video: Asking Steve Jobs about the Blackberry (2008) - 'The Blackberry movie is highly recommended in light of this, given the role the iPhone played in the decline of RIM.'
on How 'mysterious' John Ternus got Hollywood eating out of his hand - 'I fully expected a perfectly timed, planned and implemented transition from Cook to whoever was the absolute best internal candidate, given that that’s what Steve did with Tim, emphasizing that the most important thing to maintain and protect was the Apple culture. I can’t imagine Tim doing anything less, once he started to see the end of his time as CEO. And nice to see Apple’s entertainment endeavours really starting to bear fruit. Slow and steady, with extreme focus on quality, wins almost every race Apple has ever entered, notwithstanding all the naysayers and short-sighted doom peddlers.'
on How 'mysterious' John Ternus got Hollywood eating out of his hand - 'Pun intended. The Duo opens up a new role for iPhone – best supporting tech device, for action heroes, evil antagonists, nerds, you name it. It’s physical, visceral, visual, magical. Ternus too, is camera-ready.'
on How 'mysterious' John Ternus got Hollywood eating out of his hand - 'Level 5 Leadership by TC, of course!'
on How 'mysterious' John Ternus got Hollywood eating out of his hand - 'You have to hand it to Cook for teeing all of this up for his successor. And my guess is that’s exactly the couldn’t make Cook happier!!!'
on How 'mysterious' John Ternus got Hollywood eating out of his hand - 'The timing of Tim Cook’s retirement and the ascent of John Ternus seems to have been very well planned. Just like about everything else at Apple. Having the Duo being released as a signature achievement within a couple of weeks of the transition is a coup for Ternus and Apple. And it shows how good Tim Cook really was as a CEO.'
on Demand for Apple's Phone 18 Pros 'better than feared' - '“Have no fear, Underdog is here!” Damn straight. That’s who is. When in this world the headlines read Of those whose hearts are filled with greed And rob and steal from those who need. To right this wrong with blinding speed goes Underdog Underdog Underdog Underdog'
on BofA: Sweet trade-ins are a tailwind for the iPhone 18 Pro series - 'T-Mobile had a great trade-in, but they want me to migrate to a more expensive plan. Like PED said, they get theirs in the end.'
on BofA: Sweet trade-ins are a tailwind for the iPhone 18 Pro series - 'Bought my 18 Pro Max today. And got this interesting wrinkle: $12 a month for a 12-month lease; $18 for a 24-month lease. Why? Because of the trade-in. If I remove the trade-in, the leases are $62 for the 12-month and $48 for the 24-month (what I expected. The longer lease should be cheaper). But if I add the trade-in back, I get the phone for only $12 a month … if I take the short time period. Looking at the deal, it is because they deduct the entire trade-in value from the cost but spread it over the term of the lease. So a $500 trade-in has the entire $500 taken in the 1st year. So less has to be financed in the lease. But only $250 each year when leased for 2 years. So sure, I’ll have to send it in and upgrade in a year, but getting the 18 pro max for $12 a month is a steal.'
on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'In today’s The Trader column from Barron’s, Alex Rosenberg suggests, “Stocks Are Resilient, Fairly Priced, and Probably Getting Ready to Rally.” https://apple.news/ATnqAZimSQwW1t4JOOEomuA Personally, I expect equities to continue to rise as long as earnings growth remains strong. That doesn’t mean share prices go higher in a straight line.'
on Gene Munster: Apple splits the difference - '“Apple’s recently launched iPhone 18 is seeing “muted” initial wait times in major global markets for the technology giant’s first foldable smartphone, UBS Securities [David Vogt] said in a note e-mailed Friday.” There you are, David, right on cue this morning. Vogt, one of the perpetual AAPL low-ballers currently has a Hold rating with a $296 target. No surprise. He also seems to think the Duo’s price may cause problems with sales. “Sell” rating forthcoming'
on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'Yes. Price includes GST of 10%. Aus consumer law says a device must be effective for the term of its reasonable useful life. Apple has taken that to mean 2 years for most of their products. Apple’s explicit warranty is 12 months but they honour consumer rights and then some. Bring in a 25 month old product and say you noticed something wrong after 23 months and if you aren’t rude you might get your product replaced on the spot. Technically these laws apply to android devices too. But as many androids are bought in supermarkets, small shops, Amazon etc it is too difficult to get a phone replaced 2 years later, so I assume they are just trashed. So yes Aussies pay a bit more than just the exchange rate and gst but they get Ritz Carlton service at an Apple Store and longer device life. For me the extra money of buying in Australia is a no-brainer.'
on Gene Munster: Apple splits the difference - 'They’ll say “Apple is doomed. They mis-managed not just the demand and supply chain for the Duo, but also the scalability of their website.” There is NO SCENARIO where Apple wins with a lot of those people…'
on Gene Munster: Apple splits the difference - 'What will all these analysts write once the Duo is not only sold in seconds, but the web site crashed due to overwhelming demand. My gut tells me that Apple has been preparing for an order onslaught of these Duo devices and have produced far more than anyone is predicting will be sold. I still remember all the articles mocking the Apple Air Pods as: “Nobody will want to be seen walking around with Q-Tips in their ears.” How did that prediction turn out? About as well as Apple entering the streaming wars will be a disaster!'
