Recent Comments

  • Gregg Thurman on Apple iPhones only for Israeli Army officers, no Androids - 'War is ugly. People get hurt. Hamas is a dictatorial cancer with only one goal, a goal it can’t possibly achieve, the elimination of Israel. So it wages war on the unarmed. Those that joined the chorus to stop the IDF were de facto defenders of Hamas and its militant tactics.'
  • Gregg Thurman on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/1-12/5/25) - 'I executed my earlier decision to sell my JAN 26 $170/$175 Call Spreads and re-enter with higher Strike Call Spreads. I used the proceeds to buy more (30 vs 25) JAN 26 $180/$185 Call Spreads at a much lower price ($2.22 vs $2.59). Breakeven is $282.22. This after pulling $2000 off the table. I now have $3000 of my $5000 risk fund in play. If successful these contracts will yield $15,000 gross. Should Apple exceed December guidance and positively guide the March quarter I may increase my risk fund beyond the original $5000. I remain somewhat hesitant to do so until after WWDC in June. I want to see Apple’s Apple Intelligence, SIRI and Apple Vision Pro announcements before doing so. It’s too early to get aggressive.'
  • Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Apple iPhones only for Israeli Army officers, no Androids - '“Hamas declared war.” I’m not defending Hamas.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple iPhones only for Israeli Army officers, no Androids - ' It’s hard to muster up much admiration for the IDF these days, Why is that PED? Hamas declared war. IDF kicked their ass and in so doing eliminated Hamas leadership. Hamas would be non-existent had not the world’s political will disappeared. If the IDF had been allowed to continue the world would be a far better place. As it is, Hamas has regrouped and is retaking control over Gaza. So much for Trump’s “peace” plan. How long before Hamas resumes border raids and cross border shelling of Israel? Iran is already reopening arms smuggling routes to both Hamas and Hezbollah. We shouldn’t have stopped at bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities. Ukraine and the rest of the region would have thanked us.'
  • Darren DMW on Apple iPhones only for Israeli Army officers, no Androids - 'Given how deep Mossad has penetrated so many of its enemies via the target’s cell phones, it only makes sense that the reverse risk is real too. Post Oct 7 the security establishment has realised that previously the different branches weren’t co-ordinated enough. If anyone know’s cell phone vulnerabilities it would be the Mossad and a reasonable guess they are now advising the IDF. Non-military types should also listen to this advice.'
  • Darren DMW on Saturday Apple video: Steve Jobs explains employee stock options (1983) - 'Large parts of the western world seem quite happy teaching kids a whole lot of useless stuff. We do our kids no favours not teaching basic financial (let alone investing) skills before we tell them – “you’re an adult now, off you go”.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Davidson's Gil Luria: This should be Apple's best season in four years - 'Steven: It’s very easy and straight forward in my experience. I’m notified by Apple, upon the 12th payment on the current loan through Citizens, I’m eligible for a no-additional-costs upgrade to a new iPhone. I purchase the new iPhone through Apple’s iPhone upgrade portal after confirming eligibility. The new iPhone is shipped to my home. A return kit is shipped separately. When the new iPhone arrives I transfer the data from the old iPhone to new one, reset the device and return the old iPhone to Apple at no cost in the return packaging provided. This year about $3 was added to my monthly payment, now totaling $61.16 for my iPhone 17 Pro Max, because theft and loss insurance is obligatory on the AppleCare+ contract.'
  • David Emery on Don't pick on Apple Maps or Ads, Cupertino tells Brussels - 'A dealer/mechanic who can’t immediately diagnose a bad battery is just flat incompetent. If it’s a dealership, I’d raise that with the district zone manager.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Don't pick on Apple Maps or Ads, Cupertino tells Brussels - 'If you need a Mercedes part, check first with VW. In many cases the Mercedes part is the same as used in a VW, for a whole lot less.'
  • Steven Philips on Davidson's Gil Luria: This should be Apple's best season in four years - 'RPL: I find this kind of comment on the upgrade program interesting. Has it changed since it started? “No mess. No hassles.” ? Maybe it depends on perspective. When I tried it years ago it seemed to be in name only. You still had to apply for a purchase slot, go through the loan process and sign up for the service provider. To me, an automatic upgrade should entail just going in after one year and handing in your old phone for a new one. Any loan or service provider data should automatically be updated unless something has changed. If this was the process I would very quickly sign up again.'
  • Steven Philips on After high-rise fires, Apple comes to Hong Kong's aid - 'Nice to think about, but TC wouldn’t really be a good choice for President. He’d be the kind of option we’ve been getting. (Not in a Just Bad way, just in a popularity/image projection sense.) Problem is – I can’t think of anyone who SHOULD be president. What kind of president do we really need now? Neither side seems to have anyone in the wings. This is harder than picking Apple’s next CEO! 🙂'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Saturday Apple video: Steve Jobs explains employee stock options (1983) - '@Ron: Thanks for the positive comment. Perhaps someday basic financial courses will be taught in high school so that these upcoming generation of “kids” will begin to understand the concept of investments and how to manage their money by earning % or profiting from purchasing and selling equities. As opposed to “Meme Stocks” or lottery tickets.'
  • Fred Stein on Don't pick on Apple Maps or Ads, Cupertino tells Brussels - 'Upvoted. My wife’s Audi had an apparent problem with the MMI (a primitive tablet-like screen for nav and entertainment). The dealership said it would cost $7,700 to replace. I found a third party person who would install a 3rd party replacement, which I would have to buy for about $350, and then his installation fee was $300. Actually it was the car’s battery, now replaced. Problem solved. No refund for the $350 diagnostic which said the battery was OK.'
  • Bill Fouche on Don't pick on Apple Maps or Ads, Cupertino tells Brussels - 'The U.S. needs a motorvehicle markets act (MVA) to protect US auto parts makers from unfair competition from overseas luxury car makers, who routinely exclude them. Audi, BMW, and Mercedes Benz serve as “gatekeepers” for the components and services that end up inside the cars they sell here, to the disadvantage of many American companies who have no way to compete. For example, why can’t I choose to replace the Mercedes Benz navigation system with Apple Maps, for example, or Waze, or Tesla’s self-driving system? And what if I want an audio system made by Bose? While European car makers sell a small percentage of all cars sold in the US, they have an “entrenched market position” in the luxury-car market. Expecting resistance to this effort to promote fair competition with U.S. companies, the MVA will base all penalties on a percentage these EU companies’ “worldwide turnover.” If we enacted the MVA, how long, do we think, it would take European luxury car makers to start howling?'
  • Stephen Gordon on Don't pick on Apple Maps or Ads, Cupertino tells Brussels - 'Imposing fines on American companies is as close as the EU will ever come to having a tech industry of its own.'
  • Ron Fredrick on Saturday Apple video: Steve Jobs explains employee stock options (1983) - 'Michael, that’s an excellent example of why more people don’t take advantage of their opportunity to invest long term and kudos for helping your sister do the right thing! 🙂'
  • Ron Fredrick on Davidson's Gil Luria: This should be Apple's best season in four years - 'Gregg Thurman said: The Apple Vision Pro, its spinoffs, and related video Services are the growth engine of the future with a long growth runway. I can hear the guffaws of the doubting Thomas’s now. “Apple is only selling 500K units per year since launch. It’s a failure. It’s priced to high”.” I’ll say it again, for maybe the 10th time, “Apple can’t sell more than that amount because it is screen supply constrained, AND the all important Vision content (movies and live performance [sports]) does not yet exist at scale.” **I agree with you, Gregg! The AVP is currently screen supply constrained *and* very expensive. Nobody should expect it to sell in mass quantities at $3500, even if it were *not* supply constrained. My wife and I each got an AVP when it was released only because being fully invested in AAPL over the years allowed us to afford them and, at my age, I decided I didn’t have the option of waiting for the technology cost to decline. We’ve not been disappointed, even though the Vision content has been slow to appear.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Saturday Apple video: Steve Jobs explains employee stock options (1983) - 'For companies other than Apple, my hunch is the percentage of employees taking full opportunity of stock options isn’t nearly as large. Reason being that unless the particular employees are already familiar with investing and how the financial markets work, then they probably don’t take advantage of their stock options. I use a family member as an example. She worked at a publicly traded company and brought me her paperwork for the “ESOP” opportunity that was being offered to the folks at the company. When I tried to explain to her that you need to take out the maximum amount of your salary since you are able to buy stock at a discount, her initial reaction was: Then my salary will go down.” So I told her to take out the maximum amount and that I would reimburse her for the ESOP that she received. We would split the stock between her and me and I would show her how long term she is going to be making more money as a result of taking full advantage of this opportunity. She discovered the power of being an employee at a publicly traded company, thanks to her brother showing her how it would benefit her longer term. Even better since it didn’t cost her anything. But if you’re not an investor, then all anyone sees is that they’re not bringing home their same monthly income. For folks who are not savvy investors and didn’t have parents who invested in the market or took courses in finance, then most of the work force only see the reduction in the monthly income by contributing a portion of their salary to an ESOP. A very sad reality.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Davidson's Gil Luria: This should be Apple's best season in four years - ' What’s not to like Gil? Virtually no iPhone growth over the past decade. Revenue growth through price increases can only take you so far, before you hit a ceiling. Was this the year that revenue bumped into that ceiling? If Apple plans years in advance, I believe it does, then is it possible that Apple foresaw the above occurring in 2026, and has been working on a new revenue stream to replace a mature stream for 10 years or more? Apple Intelligence and Apple Vision Pro.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Davidson's Gil Luria: This should be Apple's best season in four years - ' Same old negativity just being packaged differently. Is recognition of a very real phenomena negative? it appears that Apple once again has been the leader hidden in plain view I agree. iPhones will be the gateway to AI for most people.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Davidson's Gil Luria: This should be Apple's best season in four years - ' iOS accounted for 17% of global sales in Q3 2025, up by 1 percentage point from last year.” A clear example of market saturation and growth by competition conversion.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on After high-rise fires, Apple comes to Hong Kong's aid - 'With the age of Tim Cook, coupled with the age of Biden and Trump, how ironic would it be if he leaves Apple right before 2028 to run for POTUS? Tim is a masterful politician and from what both parties are currently offering for candidates, he would probably receive everyone’s vote on Apple 3.0 and possibly every owner of an Apple device. A landslide victory is brewing. He’d be an outstanding choice and the only voting block he might lose would be the “Roll Tide” fans who sit on the opposite of the stadium in the Iron Bowl. But perhaps their loyalty to Apple devices would even have them voting for Tim.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple at $278.85: Fourth all-time high in four trading days - 'The bottom line: Apple got sandbagged at the beginning of the year, and thus has arrived late to the AI party. But that’s not the same as missing it, and coming late gives Apple the advantage of seeing other’s mistakes, and adjusting its course accordingly.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Davidson's Gil Luria: This should be Apple's best season in four years - ' We’ve been on a 3-year cycle, although usually there’s no strong imperative to replace a fully functional 3 year old phone. My last non-promotion induced upgrade was from an iPhone 10 to an iPhone 15. Using a promotion my last upgrade was from an iPhone 15 Pro Max to an iPhone Plus. I couldn’t justify the expense of the Pro Max, considering how I use it. At our family Thanksgiving dinner, my brother-in-law asked a how to question on his iPhone 11. On average I think the iPhone upgrade cycle exceeds 4 years (with no empirical data to support that belief).'
  • Joseph Bland on Saturday Apple video: Steve Jobs explains employee stock options (1983) - 'Looking at a very young Steve Jobs, that was obviously a long time ago. He’s right when he said that the percentage of employees who owned AAPL was very high, and I would guess that, between existing and previous employees, it is still quite a bit higher than might be thought. When Donna worked at Apple, she was sufficiently valued to be offered stock options. Sadly, her educational segment of Apple was sold a few years after she started working there and earning those options, but it was a huge part of why, a few years after leaving Apple when we were forced to “retire” by the Great Recession, we had some kind of a retirement cushion to fall back on. And yes, she lost a big chunk of those stock options when her segment was sold, which left a bitter taste. Still, it was ultimately Apple’s loss in losing her as an employee….'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Davidson's Gil Luria: This should be Apple's best season in four years - 'So now Gill is creating another variation of the “Pull Forward” narrative that has been utilized in the past to throw cold water on Apple very time they have a successful product launch followed immediately with an outstanding quarter. Same old negativity just being packaged differently. Oops, I forgot to mention the law of large numbers. That has to be brought into the equation too. As for his Apple is behind in AI narrative, Yawn, it appears that Apple once again has been the leader hidden in plain view without having to spend Gazillions by letting someone else take the balance sheet hit while Apple can merely license Google’s AI service creation: “Gemini” for their AI source at the bargain basement price of $1 Billion a year. A genius move consider that Google still pays Apple somewhere between $20 to $25 Billion each year for the right to be Apple’s default search engine provider. What’s not to like Gil? Duh!'
  • Gregg Thurman on Davidson's Gil Luria: This should be Apple's best season in four years - 'Yes, but Luria’s point (one that I’ve been making for some time) is that sales are trapped in a channel with no real unit growth. Unit growth has been and will continue to be limited to switchers and first time handset buyers. Go back and relook at the market share chart recently provided by one of the research firms. Industry unit sales for the past decade have been chugging along at 2%-3% CAGR. Revenue growth on the other hand has been exceptional. Apple has pricing power, but didn’t raise prices this year. I think that’s recognition of the mess Trump has made of our economy. A mess that’s going to extend into next year, take years to correct. Luria is, IMO, focusing on that, and is ignoring the foundational work Apple has been doing for products powered by VisionOS. The Apple Vision Pro, its spinoffs, and related video Services are the growth engine of the future with a long growth runway. I can hear the guffaws of the doubting Thomas’s now. “Apple is only selling 500K units per year since launch. It’s a failure. It’s priced to high”. I’ll say it again, for maybe the 10th time, Apple can’t sell more than that amount because it is screen supply constrained, AND the all important Vision content (movies and live performance [sports]) does not yet exist at scale. That is changing. Scalability in production and content, again IMO, will arrive in 2026/2027. Until then there is no reason to lower unit pricing because Apple can’t produce either at scale. After all, the Apple Vision Pro is the delivery system for Vision OS content. When Apple can produce at scale, lower priced versions will be introduced to promote Vision content subscriptions. That’s where the money is. Until then the Apple Vision Pro is as TC said at its launch, a beta device This is the growth engine that Luria is missing. His price target is based on the belief that there won’t be meaningful, lasting revenue growth for the next 1-2 years. I disagree with that assumption. Apple is far more than a smartphone manufacturer.'
  • Joseph Bland on After high-rise fires, Apple comes to Hong Kong's aid - 'Hi, Digant. That may be his “plan”, but all he’s actually doing is increasing the resolve of folks to curb his power in the voting booth. This isn’t – yet – Fascist Germany or Communist Russia. If he keeps this up, many Republicans will simply choose to not vote for anyone. How is he going to “suppress” that? BTW, this guy hasn’t told us why he did this. For all we know, it was intended to give this President an excuse to tighten the screws….'
  • Joseph Bland on Davidson's Gil Luria: This should be Apple's best season in four years - 'All Apple has to do is keep growing their “smartphone envy”. Whether it’s market share or installed base, Apple iPhones have a lot of room to grow by taking share from Android smartphones. And that doesn’t count all its other computer devices. From PED’s story “Apple’s iOS dominated the U.S. market last quarter, but not worldwide”: “iOS accounted for 17% of global sales in Q3 2025, up by 1 percentage point from last year.” Per backlinko dot com/iphone-users: “- More than 1.561 billion consumers currently use iPhones. – Apple shipped 225.7 million iPhones in 2024. – iPhones have a 54% share of smartphone sales in the US. – 5 of the top 10 most sold smartphone models in Q1 2025 were designed by Apple.” Assuming these statistics are accurate, and assuming zero future growth, Apple completely replaces its iPhone installed base every (1.56/0.226=) ~7 years. One source estimates that the installed base of smartphones is presently 7.2 B (Statista and others). I find that hard to believe, because the Earth’s population is only 8 B (including a LOT of infants), but assuming it’s correct, Apple’s share is (1.6/7.2=) 22%.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Davidson's Gil Luria: This should be Apple's best season in four years - 'May I recommend to everyone Apple’s iPhone Upgrade Program? It provides you with an easy way to upgrade your iPhone as frequently as every year! No mess. No hassle. No guesswork and alleviates any anxiety over figuring out when you last acquired your most recent iPhone! Best of all, some deserving person somewhere in the world gains ownership of your meticulously maintained and gently used annual trade-in. It also assists in creating an iPhone super cycle every single year! If enough people subscribe it could be called the “Unicycle, Super Cycle, Annual iPhone Upgrade Effect!” No more analyst forecasts needed and the share price would remain permanently spiked! Give it a thought. Oh, and every year you get to buy a new case just in case you got tired of looking at your old case after about a year… A new phone, a new case, pretty much the same monthly payment and a much higher share price all year-round!'