Bart Yee on $185 billion later, Warren Buffett asks Tim Cook to take a bow (video) - 'That’s incoming CEO John Ternus, he accompanied Tim Cook to the BH shareholder meeting. Very likely John was introduced by Tim to Buffet, and the rest of BH management. After all, John will now be looking after and making sure BH’s investment in Apple will grow just fine. Dare I say the Apple investment will easily outpace the rest of BH’s businesses?'
on Mark Gurman: What no more net-cash-zero means for John Ternus - '”My concern is that China may change that scenario.” Fair enough. China has expressed a desire to bring Taiwan back into the fold often enough. But to accomplish that militarily requires crossing 90 miles of open ocean. To even begin the journey requires concentrating troops at a jumping off point, then navigating the Straits. Launching missiles would be devastating, except that Taiwan has been preparing for a Chinese invasion for over 70 years. Bombing wouldn’t do much better than missiles because of US antimissile defenses. Offensively Taiwan looks like porcupine with medium to long range missiles. And then there’s US fast attack nuclear subs, ballistic and guided missile for a total of 71 nuclear subs with an average of 20 launch tubes, each equipped with 4 warheads. Then there are the anti-shipping torpedos. Four US subs surrounding Taiwan have the capacity to launch about 320 warheads (nuclear and conventional). An untoward act by China would be met with overwhelming force by both Taiwanese and US forces. Then there’s the issue of friendly forces. China has North Korea, Iran and Russia. The US has Australia, Japan, Canada, South Korea and the Philippines in the immediate area. China is expanding its naval forces, but they are way behind the USs strength. I’m not concerned about any Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan. Short of launching a nuclear attack they are a paper tiger. In an exchange of nuclear weapons China is toast.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/4-5/8/26) - 'Looking over the past six months Apple’s revenue rose year-over-year 16% to $255 billion. Net income rose 17.3% to $71.675 billion. Net income was 28.11% of revenue. For comparison purposes I discount eps due to the influence of financial engineering through buybacks to increase it. In other words it doesn’t wholly reflect organic growth. Additionally, the amount allocated for repurchases will likely change in futures years. Over this same 6-month period in which net income rose 17.3%, the share price gained in value. While I don’t consider Apple to be an “inexpensive stock,” based on performance metrics it’s less expensive than 6 months ago.'
on $185 billion later, Warren Buffett asks Tim Cook to take a bow (video) - 'Who was the person on the lower left looking up at Tim?? Please someone tell me!'
on Mark Gurman: What no more net-cash-zero means for John Ternus - 'Likewise Greg. I have long thought that buybacks were an effective way to return value to shareholders but a lazy way to do it. I would rather see Apple build adjacent businesses (say, energy, logistics, finance??) infused with Apple culture then spin them off. Flood the market with businesses that think [different] like Apple but in new areas. Their culture is the real and rare intangible source of competitive advantage that has provided so much economic and social value.'
on Mark Gurman: What no more net-cash-zero means for John Ternus - 'My concern is that China may change that scenario.'
on Mark Gurman: What no more net-cash-zero means for John Ternus - 'I find this exciting. The only reason not to do buybacks is because you have something better to do with the money. That’s the implicit promise Ternus is making: I can deploy the cash to make Apple bigger, better, stronger, to do more for its customers and to earn more for its shareholders. Or to put it another way, let’s make a bigger dent in the universe. Given all that Apple has already accomplished, that stance is bold (or, if it turns out to be wrong, dangerous). Given the track record, I have a lot of faith that this alternative deployment, to grow the business before growing investors’ wallets, will turn out well for everyone. Well, for their competitors maybe not so much.'
on Mark Gurman: What no more net-cash-zero means for John Ternus - 'My suspicion is that Apple plans to build its own semiconductor fabrication plants in the US, and move away from using TSMC.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/4-5/8/26) - 'So Apple’s capex is a fraction of hyperscaler spend cause they aren’t going gangbusters for memory chips that are now more expensive due to hyperscaler demand. And what happens when that hardware depreciates during the next upgrade cycle? Will the hyperscalers have to float more debt? Or will AI run so efficiently that they will soon be regurgitat in profit? We know, however, that Apple’s profit potential will increase over the coming years, in spite of all this. Just thinking out loud.'
on Asymco's Horace Dediu: Services is the foundation - 'I’d love to see a forecast of these sales as Apple customers start utilizing applications that include features provided by the Foundation Models Framework for on-device services that don’t require cloud-based access.'
on $185 billion later, Warren Buffett asks Tim Cook to take a bow (video) - 'Good answer Greg. It seems that Laura latched on to the story that Apple lost AI to the CAPEX intensive hyperscalars. We may find that foundation models, like the fiber build-out which was also CAPEX intensive, commoditize. We learned from that boom/bubble/bust/recovery cycle that the winners were those who built on top of the infra, not the suppliers of infra.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/4-5/8/26) - 'After Thursday’s report, I am more bulllish today than I was on Wednesday. Fundamentally reasons: 1) supply constrained Mac Mini and MacBook Neo (and it seems like Mac Studio as well, but I haven’t gotten to that article yet)imply good continuing sales into the June Quarter. 2) a “smarter” (but how smart?) Siri will be good for overall sales, iPhone in particular, but also potentially this rumored “home” device. 3) only 30% of iPhones being upgraded (I take this to mean that ther are still 70% of them out there waiting for an upgrade (I know mine is ready). 4) With WWDC yet to come in June, I think the September quarter could get a bump (extending beyond June quarter). 5) December quarter yet to be reckoned, but I think it will be really good. I think Martin is coming to very incorrect conclusions.'
on $185 billion later, Warren Buffett asks Tim Cook to take a bow (video) - 'Laura is just one of the Lamealysts who don’t get the Apple story.'
