Bill Donahue on Yahoo!Finance: John Ternus should be a happy man - '“He has a great tech-bro look.” Yeah, not at all a compliment or something to aspire to or admire.'
on Postcard from Toulouse - 'On the back of consumer demand for the iPhone 17 Apple has exceeded GUIDANCE with an average 16.3% growth rate during FY 2026 (3 quarters). I am not expecting another 16+% YoY revenue growth rate for the September quarter (weakened compare). I am expecting a 13% revenue growth rate due to demand for the iPhone 18, iPhone split delivery schedule, and continued demand for Mac mini/Studio. Memory cost increases are offset by memory dependent product price increases that maintain historic net income rates of ~47%. My revenue estimate (published on estimize.com) is $116.250 Billion (up 13%). My EPS estimate is $2.06 (up 11%). The above estimates were derived solely from Apple’s GUIDANCE and historic beat trend.'
on Postcard from Toulouse - 'FYQ4 guidance from June Earnings call: As we move ahead into the September quarter, I’d like to review our outlook, which includes the types of forward-looking information that Suhasini referred to. Importantly, the color we’re providing assumes that global tariff rates, policies, and their application remain in effect as of this call, and the global macroeconomic outlook does not worsen from today. ((At least tariffs for FYQ1will be stable: “The United States and China have agreed to extend a bilateral trade truce that was set to expire in November through Jan. 10, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday. The announcement came after Bessent and China’s vice premier, He Lifeng, held an unscheduled meeting in Washington. “We will extend what we call the ‘Busan Agreement’ — the economic détente between the two countries that was scheduled to end on Nov. 10 — that is going to be extended until Jan. 10,” Bessent said in an interview on Fox News Channel.” Excerpt From “U.S. and China agree to extend trade truce through Jan. 10, Bessent says” Steve Kopack NBC News apple news/ A13abrcNXTKy7gVdQFOf1yA This material may be protected by copyright.”)) “We also expect our September quarter total company revenue to be impacted by two main factors. First, we expect foreign exchange to be a sequential headwind of about 2.5 percentage points to the year-over-year total company growth rate from the June quarter to the September quarter. Second, we expect the impact from supply constraints to increase significantly sequentially. The projected supply constraints in the September quarter affect iPhone, Mac, and iPad. As a result, we expect our September quarter total company revenue to grow between 9% and 11% year-over-year. On iPhone, we expect to continue to see high levels of demand; however, we do expect iPhone revenue to be impacted by these foreign exchange headwinds and supply constraints. Therefore, we expect the September quarter reported growth rate for iPhone to be mid-teens year-over-year. For Services, we expect September quarter year-over-year reported growth rate to be largely similar to what we reported in the June quarter after removing the negative sequential impact of about two and a half percentage points from foreign exchange that we just described. We expect gross margin to be between 47 percent and 48 percent. This includes an expected benefit of approximately one percentage point related to tariff refunds. We expect operating expenses to be between $19.1 billion and $19.4 billion. We expect OI&E to be around $350 million, excluding any potential impact from the mark-to-market of minority investments, and our tax rate to be around 16.5 percent.” Given these, expectations are floating around, analysts est.: Q4 Total revenues: ~$113.62 10.9% vs +9-11% Gross Margins 47-48% iPhone guidance $56.4B (=15% mid teens guidance) Services ~$32.2B (~12% guidance same ~ June) Mac & iPad ~$15-16B maybe flat to +2% depending on supply constraints Wearables – flat ~$9.0B Q1 FY2027 analysts estimates, per Yahoo Finance: Total revenues: $154.4B +7.4% avg 19 analysts range $131.5B (-8.5%, who is that!?) to $170.4B (+18.7%) only +7.4% YoY, a big slowdown from Q4’s 9-11%. Wonder if most believe revenues are slowed vs a record and difficult tough compare from year ago iPhone 17 massive bump, plus price increases dampening demand? The move to split iPhone base models off to Spring 2027 but sub Duo revenues entirely in Q1 is an interesting revenue and profits move. Actual sales numbers will be lower BUT average sales prices due to new iPhone 18 Pro & Pro Max plus Duo could jump from $1032 in Q1 FY2026 well into the $1200’s. ASP: • 18 Pro $1275 (30%) • 18 Pro Max $1380 (35%) • iPhone Air $1120 (3%) • iPhone Duo $2250 (6%) Little talked about price increases, not discounted older models • iPhone 17 $920 (10%) (price increased $100 to $899 after iPhone Event due to memory costs instead of usual $100 discount to $699) • iPhone 16 $820 5% (up $100 to $799) • iPhone 17e $725 5% (Up $100 to $699) If 82.6M (ASP $1032 Rev $85.3B) sold in Q1 FY2026, consider a massive 10% sales decrease to 74.3M but an increase in ASP from $1032 to low estimate $1200 (+16.3%) = iPhone Revenue of $89.2B, an increase YoY of 4.6% in a tough year. If sales do not decrease that much, say -6% to 77.64M, rev up to $93.1B, +9.2%. A partially forced iPhone price tier leap like the iPhone X.'
on Postcard from Toulouse - 'I do expect the typical renewed effort to pull the beachball down in the fast-upcoming 1st month of a new quarter, when Apple is on the open market sidelines. Works for me, since it gives Apple yet another opportunity to buy back undervalued stock…. “Lord, what fools these mortals be!” – Puck, in “A Midsummer Night’s Dream” by W, Shakespeare'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Approaching the end of the trading day and McDonald’s is off about $13 or over 5% on concerns about the prospects for flat revenue and margin pressure. All four major indexes are in the red with the Russell 2000 small cap index off more than 1.50%. Apple is currently down $3.42 or 1.01% at $336.34. That’s after reaching $345.34 yesterday and establishing a new all-time high. These days do happen!'
on Apple: An hour with Mark Gurman and Nilay Patel (video) - 'Good catch Greg. To put that 10,000,000 number into perspective, that was Steve Jobs’ goal for the first year of iPhone sales, which was achieved in October 2008 according to the few mentions that I could find. So these guys took about 10X as long as Apple did to achieve that number.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Macro issues like rising treasury yields and gasoline prices seem to be tamping the momentum a bit. Maybe it’s just a blip, for all I know.'
on Apple: An hour with Mark Gurman and Nilay Patel (video) - 'Jonny, I did find it worthwhile, but difficult, to listen to because of the overall negativity of his takes and looking at a perspective that puts Apple in its worst light. But for someone who professes to be a big fan of Apple products, he does seem to take the most negative spin on anything related to Apple. I was thinking about this and then something came to me that may explain this. It seems that a lot of what he talks about is in relation to Ive and the design team at Apple. I am guessing that the people that are leaking to him may be the ones from the team that are still at Apple and I would bet that they do not like the “demotion” that they took after Ive left so the stuff that they are going to leak is going to be negative. If there are other leakers in Gurman’s camp, I am going to be that they are probably not as happy with Apple either. Otherwise, they would not be leaking. That may explain the overall negativity of Gurman’s reports. The other thing that is grating in his reports is that he seems to take the attitude that he knows best for Apple. It comes across as smug to me and is another reason why he is difficult to listen to.'
on Apple: An hour with Mark Gurman and Nilay Patel (video) - 'You could not pay me enough to listen to these two talking inanely for a whole hour.'
on British GQ considers the iPhone Duo - 'There are no left or right handed notebooks. Huh. A spiral notebook bound on the long side on the left is clearly optimized for a right handed writer. A left handed writer has to cross over the spiral binding, which is less comfortable.'
