Recent Comments

  • Bart Yee on Apple's mixed Q3 2026: What the talking heads are saying - 'I’m going to say this once: in this Bloomberg video, Gurman gives a cogent and straightforward assessment of the raw numbers, the supply issues and headwinds that Apple is facing, and poses pertinent memory supply questions. He actually sounded like a professionally competent tech guy. No snark, no sensationalism, little criticism since Apple is having to deal with the same industry wide memory cost issues every one else is dealing with.'
  • Alan Trerise on WSJ: Apple gave $25 million for Trump's ballroom - 'Bribery or extortion? A matter of perspective I guess.'
  • Ben Gepp on WSJ: Apple gave $25 million for Trump's ballroom - '‘Ugh’ indeed. This is Apple’s brand, a brand that is an expression of design excellence, with a human centric, intuitive, purposeful and refined approach being associated with Trump’s tasteless faux period pastiche, that is ego centric rubbish. Trump is a tacky embarrassment. He’s like one of those big slab birthday cakes, gaudy sugary icing with artificial colours over a tasteless, cardboardy sponge cake. No one likes it but they politely shovel it in their mouths. Please get rid off him and have some grown ups put in charge.'
  • Steven Philips on WSJ: Apple gave $25 million for Trump's ballroom - 'Jobs wouldn’t recognize the country now! Consider the options.'
  • Steven Philips on WSJ: Apple gave $25 million for Trump's ballroom - 'That much money for the presidential library is obviously a scam. There aren’t that many comic books in existence.'
  • Mark Visnic on Apple's mixed Q3 2026: What the analysts are saying - '@Robert “ …without any indication of a ready pathway for monetization. “ See Andy Jassy’s clear earnings call primer on the compelling monetization pathway of data center buildout. This is no criticism of Apple’s chosen path (aside from Cook’s slavish response to Trump’s “boss man” demands for self-aggrandizing tribute) but, any criticism of data center infrastructure buildout was premature and off target.'
  • Mark Visnic on Apple's mixed Q3 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'The ROIC from hyperscaler data center infrastructure build is impressive and already clearly underway. The quotes are Andrew Jassy’s. “Let me talk for a second about how we see this investment playing out. Earlier this year, we said we plan to invest approximately $200 billion in cash CapEx in 2026, the majority of which to support AI and AWS. At this level of spend and higher, we have clear line of sight to strong financial returns. I’ll explain why. There are 2 major parts of the investment, the data centers and the servers and networking equipment that go into them. These have different capital cycles. Data center capital is spent starting 2 years before we can put servers into them to start monetizing. Once a data center opens with servers plugged in, we start generating significant revenue right away and then get to monetize these data centers for 30-plus years without having to spend that start-up capital again. Servers and networking equipment operate on a shorter cycle. We typically purchase these a few months before putting them into service, so we have strong visibility into customer demand before we trigger the spend. If the demand isn’t there, we won’t spend the capital. For servers and networking equipment, on average, it takes a little less than 3 years to break even on that investment. The servers currently have a useful life of at least 5 to 6 years, and most of our AI capacity these days is being contracted for at least 5-year terms. That means that we’re driving significant free cash flow on the servers and networking equipment in the 2 to 3 years after we break even. It’s also worth noting that AWS has a strong track record of pulling forward break evens on server equipment where we’ve already made meaningful progress and finding ways to extend the useful life of this equipment without sacrificing customer experience. So for our data centers, which have 30-plus-year useful lives, we should get at least 5 to 6 generations of server economics, like I explained earlier, with subsequent generations after the first having even better overall economics because we don’t have to repeat that upfront data center investment I mentioned earlier. This means in the short term, when demand is necessitating so many data centers being built simultaneously in advance of when we can start monetizing them, we’ll spend a lot of CapEx and encounter free cash flow headwinds until these data centers come online, can be monetized and we get a few years into these servers being utilized. But as we get a few years out and the revenue growth outpaces the incremental CapEx growth, which will happen at some point, the resulting revenue, free cash flow and return on invested capital is very compelling. We’ve done this before in the first era of cloud computing, just over a longer time horizon, where demand built more gradually than it has in AI. But we see the margins and returns in AI tracking what we saw with core at the same point of evolution, actually, a little ahead.”'
  • Greg Lippert on WSJ: Apple gave $25 million for Trump's ballroom - 'I’ve had enough of this.'
  • Mark Visnic on WSJ: Apple gave $25 million for Trump's ballroom - 'There is no edge in what Cook has become. He’s stale. Jobs wouldn’t recognize him now. It’s hopeful that a new leader is incoming when otherwise there would be none.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Apple's mixed Q3 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'Richard: Let’s look at some numbers: Apple ended June trading at $289.36 Apple ended July trading up $19.45 or 6.72% at $308.91 Over the same period: DJIA is up 0.32% S&P 500 is down 0.13% NASDAQ Composite is down 3.2% Year-to-date: Apple is up 13.63%
 Microsoft is down 3.91% Amazon is up 17.66% DJIA is up 9.20% S&P 500 is up 9.41%
 NASDAQ Composite is up 9.17% Even with today’s big sell-off the company is outperforming the big cap indexes on both 1-month and YTD comparisons. I’m not reading more it the post-earnings price action in Apple than an adjustment to pricing based on a re-evaluation of expectations following June quarter results and September quarter commentary.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple's mixed Q3 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'It was fairly precipitous, but it’s not the first time. “These are not the ‘droids we’re lookng for. Move along….”'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'This started yesterday, then really took hold in the tiny after-market. All short teem profit-driven, IMO.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Apple’s market cap took a double whammy hit today. Not only did it sustain a -7.35% drop, the outstanding shares reported in the newly released 10Q showed 14,594,180,000 shares outstanding, down from 14.68B shares. Share reduction is roughly 86M shares. With both of those happening, AAPL market cap drops to $4.537T. https://s2.q4cdn.com/470004039/files/doc_earnings/2026/q3/filing/10Q-Q3-2026-as-filed.pdf Page 24 of the 10Q shows repurchasing – interesting that again, like in March 2026, no repurchases were done in April 2026, missing a drop into $250 range (March) and $265 range (April). But as Robert pointed out, a May ASR of $10B to buy 26.5M shares (price to be determined) was added to a regular expenditure for 26.9M shares at $297.18 ASP, followed by June purchasing (during black out period) of 26.2M shares at $296.18 ASP. Total spent was $25.8B for 79.6M shares although it’s not clear if all of the $10B was spent, leaving the ASP to be determined. I wonder if the pause saved some cash to cover for extra Mac Neo chip production and increased memory costs?'
  • Neal Guttenberg on Apple's mixed Q3 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'The price drop after the earnings report was what I was worried about, especially after the quick rise in share price in the run up to this earnings report. I have been busy and haven’t had a chance to really digest the report but on quick examination, it looks good and Apple remains in good shape despite the high percentage loss today. It is better to have excellent demand but with supply chain issues than have excess supply and not enough demand. With this in mind, it probably was a good time for Apple to be raising prices. I am also guessing the supply constraints are scaring the traders and thus the big exit today. My guess that the long term investors are holding pat. I see no reason to sell right now except if you need the cash(or you see something better in the markets) I know that TC wanted things in good order turning things over the Ternus so maybe Apple reported the worst case scenario so that on Ternus’s first quarter things will look much better? One can always hope.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Premarket: Apple is red - '@Joseph: I just posted my thoughts on the: “Apple’s mixed Q3 2026: What the analysts are saying” thread.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Apple's mixed Q3 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'I’ll be curious to see what the numbers are on the next short interest when it’s published in about 10 days. My theory is that these precipitous price drops are all to benefit short sellers so they can cover at lower prices. Short interest was (140.526) Million as of June 30, 2026. 1.732 Short interest was (146.547) Million as of July 15, 2026. 3.05 Can you imagine the drop if Apple missed earnings and EPS? Sheesh.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's mixed Q3 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'People are always looking for a boogey man they can blame something on. Options are a common scapegoat, for changes in a stocks valuation, and comes from those with little to no understanding of what makes them move. Options are reactive in nature. Options pricing follow changes in the underlying stock pricing. The stock moves first and the options follow.'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Now the stock app shows volume of 127M shares. Three or four times normal. I think it was a double whammy. Some people took profits in Apple and bought hyperscalers when they were perceived to be low. When the new Siri, the folding iPhone, the M6 and more come out this will be forgotten.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Well, not as bad as it could have been. Closed down -$24.52, -7.35%, at $308.91, volume heavy at 101M shares. Had been down as far as $300 down -$33 or just under 10%. For the last minute, was rising up over $310, then a small flurry of sell orders orders at lower prices suppressed the closing price. That speaks to me that someone didn’t want AAPL closing higher above $310. Not sure if we now have a floor or their will be further selling. As Robert said, it takes about 3 weeks for the market to digest the report and call’s implications and revalue Apple as falling or setting up for the next leg up. Considering the market’s short attention span, the iPhone 18 and Ultra introduction along with other hardware revisions and updates, plus pricing points will be the next catalysts for movement up or down or sideways.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - '“Max pain falls $2.50 to at $327.50…” Well, the options houses got clobbered again, except this time from the other direction! I listened to most of Horace Dediu’s excellent analysis this AM and he agrees this was a particularly stupid selloff, although he also was surprised how quickly and how high it went up. Bottom line. Apple’s fundamentals aren’t just sound, they’re almost unprecedentedly sound.'
  • Stephen Gordon on Apple's mixed Q3 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'Joseph – Amazon along with the other hyperscalers have amassed over $1 trillion of hidden debt. lycoristechnologies.com/blog/hyperscaler-off-balance-sheet-ai-debt/ “The most important number in Big Tech’s AI buildout may be the one that doesn’t appear in a standard debt-to-equity ratio. A new Nikkei analysis estimates that five hyperscalers — Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle — now carry roughly $1.65 trillion in off-balance-sheet debt tied to AI, a figure that has grown about eightfold since 2022 and now exceeds the same companies’ combined on-balance-sheet debt of roughly $1.35 trillion. Put plainly: the liabilities investors can’t easily see are now larger than the ones they can.”'
  • Les Surdykowski on Apple's mixed Q3 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'And for all of the Dan Niles’s out there, yeah Kylo Ren but that’s Disney and the guy from Lost trying to spice things up more than a logical extension of the original intent of the original author. If Star Wars could just chuck that up to a multi-verse timey-whimy thing the franchise would be in much better shape.'
  • Les Surdykowski on Apple's mixed Q3 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'As Han Solo once uttered when navigating an asteroid belt, “Never tell me the odds.” Yeah Vader was waiting in Cloud City and that whole carbonite thing was unpleasant but Luke did his little salute, dive and saber thing and it all worked out for Han in the end.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Premarket: Apple is red - '@Rodney: I’m hoping Apple is back in the market today as well.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Premarket: Apple is red - 'I decided to pick up some shares at $301. I realize that we may not have seen the total sell off yet, but it is for the longterm. Right as I made my purchase, I watched the stock price. It didn’t change any. 😉'
  • Greg Lippert on Apple's mixed Q3 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'She’s Leader of the Clowns'
  • Richard Gayle on Apple's mixed Q3 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'Maybe someone with more knowledge could answer this. I’m wondering how much of the drop is due to options expiring. As Robert wrote, Apple is still higher than just a short time ago. Could there have been some extra “push” to get the price down before the options expired, essentially using the downward momentum usually seen after earnings are reported? If so, would the price again rise some over the next few weeks because options trading caused Apple to be oversold?'
  • Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Apple's mixed Q3 2026: What the analysts are saying - 'Wamsi Mohan’s BofA note has landed. Still a Buy at $380.'
  • David Emery on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q3 2026 - 'Mebbe. What I think is much more likely is increased prices for the competition will make Apple products more popular than ever. This is the core thing most of the negative ANALysts miss.,'