Michael Goldfeder on Morgan Stanley raises Apple price target $4 to $364 - 'Do you think if Erik was at the Apple 3.0 dinner he would have doubled that amount and raised it $8.00?'
on Apple's tiny capex gives it big Street cred - 'Apple is always the tortoise, it takes its time to pick the path and stay on course. The fable is very apt. Now, if we can just have no wars, tariffs or ram shortages this tortoise would get some hare like legs…'
on Apple's tiny capex gives it big Street cred - 'Unlike the rest of “Big Tech”, Apples approach to Ai is just the modern version of Aesop’s fable: “The Tortoise and the Hare.”'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Who here is piling into LiquidMetal and pushing up my paper profits? Do you have any facts or are you buying on rumors of the hinge in Apple’s Ultra foldable iPhone? yippee!!'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'At the closing price today of $333.02, Apple ended the week off $0.72 from last Friday’s closing price of $333.74 and the day’s high of $334.37 was off $0.62 from the current all-time high of $334.99 also set last Friday. The share price did move up $11.36 or 3.53% today to recover from the pulldown that began on Monday.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'John: Are you expecting anything noteworthy from either the earnings report or the quarterly conference call that is apt to move the share price higher?'
on The day PC Magazine fired John Dvorak - 'Ewan Spence – aptly named because after reading pieces of his I always responded with an “Ewww” – was nearly as bad as Dvorak. The Macalope must have loved him though because his idiocy set the stage for a number of some of his best skewerings (is that a word?). In fact, I laughed so hard at some of the Macalope’s writings that it actually made me read Spence’s original articles, until I realized this was only to Fortune’s benefit.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Apple closed near the day’s high on moderately high volume and went up a bit after hours. Max pain really got hammered. With earnings coming up next I don’t expect much selling pressure at least till just after the earnings come out.'
on The day PC Magazine fired John Dvorak - 'Gee Whiz, I wasn’t aware that John had passed away. He was a wonderful guy and an excellent writer. Back when I was putting together the first issues of MACUSER Magazine, he was very surprised to hear from me, especially when he heard the assignment I wanted him to accept. I would list him on the masthead as Anti-Editor (to my Editor-in-Chief). His assignemnt for a monthly column would be simple: John’s job was to editorially balance the magazine all by himself. I never liked (still do not) magazines which were not-so much fluffy in content as they were in opinion. He was to become our resident curmudgeon and all by his lonesome to point out anything he thought would best illustrate what he thought Apple was doing wrong and we were missing calling out. I know that John would love to hear that he was the greatest Anti-Editor and the one and only as far I know throughout Publishing and Journalism) that I could have chosen. Sigh. I wish we would have stayed in touch. — Neil Shapiro'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'There’s about 75 minutes remaining in today’s session. Apple is now trading at $332.15, up $10.49 on the day. With a high today of $334.37, the company came within striking distance of taking out the current all-time high of $334.99 set last Friday. Let’s see what happens today in the last hour of trading.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Albertsons, which has seen its share price drop from a closing price of $15.11 last Friday to $11.03 today, has announced the company is losing business to lower-cost rivals such as Amazon and Walmart. The point is technology leaders in the retail grocery business are taking market share from less nimble rivals and as lower-income households face rising cost pressures. RBC Capital, which has a $137 price target on Walmart (trading today at $109.33) sees sales growth slowing due to pressure on consumers but the company’s long-term competitive positioning strengthening at this time. In other words, technology is reshaping American retail and the collective investment in new technologies, including AI, will continue to rise. This also bodes well for Apple. Savvy consumers will continue to invest in new technology to gain advantages. I expect demand for Apple products to rise through the end of the year despite cost challenges.'
on The day PC Magazine fired John Dvorak - 'Nope. I don’t miss what he became, when he decided nobody knew better than he.'
on The day PC Magazine fired John Dvorak - 'Steven said: “As I recall there were a couple of other really out there pundits whose names I can’t recall…” Ewan Spence, Gordon Kelly, and others at Forbes, Gurman at Bloomberg, (all of the above incentivized by clicks and engagement), Cory Doctorow or Dan Gilmor (read neither), Musk, Sweeney and Spotify CEO for specific App Store issues, Toni Sacconaghi, Craig Moffett, now Brandon Nispel, and of course, Vestager and most of the EU. There, that’s a bunch of nabobs of negativity. Oh, I forgot Tommo_Uk, he’s an “Apple truther” (IMO) who knows exactly where and why Apple has gone wrong, mostly who screwed it up, and how Apple could right their ship (if it isn’t too late) and fix themselves back to past Jobsian glories, if they just followed his (and his custom AI) recommendations. I’m sure many still miss him.'
on Morgan Stanley raises Apple price target $4 to $364 - 'Morning, David. I’d personify it as a tip of the hat, and an indication of a willingness to upgrade upwards on more proof of renewed growth. I.e., a conservative year-out estimate.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'John: The shares are now up over $12. All four major indexes are in the green and Apple is just behind IBM on the DJIA leaderboard. Big Blue is up 4.20%, Apple is higher by 3.54%, Salesforce has gained 3.40% and Disney is ahead 3.08%. What a motley assortment of big gainers today!'
on The day PC Magazine fired John Dvorak - '“…a few years ago — back when I could still speak coherently on camera…” I don’t know, PED: You spoke coherently, well, and extemporaneously at the Apple 3.0 Bay Area dinner. IMO, you’ve still got it!'
on Premarket: Apple is green - '“Max pain moves down $2.50 to $320….” Although the day is young, AAPL is within $1.50 of its ATH and is giving Max Pain the finger, at the same time AVGO (Broadcom), SPCX, TSLA, and TSM, are decidedly in the red. Clearly, buyers still exist for AAPL even at these lofty heights. Was the profit-locking too early?'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Approaching noon EDT and Apple is up over $11. Just a straight line up. What a difference a day makes.'
on The day PC Magazine fired John Dvorak - 'It shows that sometimes we’re more interested in entertainment than truth.'
on The day PC Magazine fired John Dvorak - '“Any clod can have the facts; having opinions is an art.” Charles McCabe'
on The day PC Magazine fired John Dvorak - 'Oh how does that bring back memories! As I recall there were a couple of other really out there pundits whose names I can’t recall but Dvorak was “king”. So spectacularly up front bad that you – almost – had to like him. As my old daddy used to say, “He’s not totally worthless. You can always use him as a bad example.” RIP, John.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'At about 10am in the east Apple is trading up $5.48 at $327.14. The indexes are mixed in early trading. Digital Realty Trust, a major operator of data centers, is up $22.76 or 12.69% at $202.10. The company just reported a record backlog and leasing levels. DLR is currently today’s top performer among S&P 500 components. 76% of components are higher on the day.'
on Morgan Stanley raises Apple price target $4 to $364 - '“ The firm continues to believe that Apple fundamentals are “very strong.” — Analyst Erik Woodring” – Duh'
on Morgan Stanley raises Apple price target $4 to $364 - 'The word for a $4 raise is “noise”. They would like us to believe their models provide 3 significant digits of accuracy. Mostly, as usual, this is about ‘clicks’.'
on Counterpoint: iPhone shipments in China grew 23% YOY in June quarter - 'Simply FAAANTASTIC jpb, Bart!!! We all owe you an enormous Thank You for your excellent and very time-consuming work!!!'
on Counterpoint: iPhone shipments in China grew 23% YOY in June quarter - '“what were Apple’s annual iPhone sales in China 2025 and projected to be for 2026? how long would it take for those 60M+ older iPhones to be upgraded? years?“ “In 2025, Apple sold an estimated 43.5 million to 44.5 million iPhones in mainland China, capturing a 16% volume share. For the full-year 2026, Apple is projected to grow its volume significantly to between 49 million and 51 million units (an approximate 12% to 15% increase), bucking the broader Chinese market decline due to its highly stable pricing strategy. Based on Apple’s annual sales velocity, it will take approximately 1.3 to 1.5 years for the 65 million+ older iPhones to fully recycle and upgrade through the ecosystem. Year-by-Year Upgrading Timeline • Year 1 (Late 2026 – Late 2027): The Core AI Wave (~45M to 50M Upgrades) The initial 12 months following the Q4 launch of local Apple Intelligence (via Alibaba’s Qwen) will absorb the vast majority of the upgrade pool. Tech-sensitive users holding onto premium older models (like the iPhone 13 Pro or iPhone 14 series) will trade in immediately to gain access to native localized AI features. • Year 2 (Late 2027 – Mid 2028): The Residual Long-Tail (~15M to 20M Upgrades) The remaining cohort consists of budget-conscious users or older demographics holding onto highly durable hardware (like the iPhone 11 or 12). These users do not upgrade for software features but will naturally age out of their devices over the subsequent 6 months due to battery degradation or apps dropping legacy iOS support. The Upgrade Velocity Bottleneck The timeline cannot happen overnight or within a single quarter because it is constrained by a physical supply ceiling. Even with high demand, Apple’s global supply chain allocations to mainland China cap maximum annual deliveries at around 50 million units. A portion of those 50 million new sales will also go to Android switchers, meaning the system physically requires more than a single calendar year to completely flush out and refresh 65 million legacy units.” ((Sounds pretty good to me, assuming the iPhone 18 and iPhone 19/20 lines prove as attractive as Gemini makes them out to be. Whether AI is or will truly be an upgrade or purchase decision maker is still yet to be proven, but it will be an interesting ride over the next 18-32 months, both from a hardware sales revenue standpoint and then a not so lagging Services standpoint. The breakdown of products and services by regions will be fascinating to observe.))'
on Counterpoint: iPhone shipments in China grew 23% YOY in June quarter - '“Aside from AI driven new iPhone sales, what is the impact of so many older iPhones hitting the used, hand me down, or trade-in and refurbished or resold markets in China?” The massive wave of roughly 65 million to 75 million older iPhones entering the secondary market creates a structural shockwave across mainland China. Aside from fueling Apple’s new hardware upgrades via trade-ins, this secondary supply surge completely reshapes the domestic retail ecosystem, severely impacts rival Android brands, and creates an eco-economic windfall. 1. Crushing Tier-2 Android Vendors in Lower-Tier Cities The massive influx of refurbished iPhones acts as a direct substitute for new, mid-range Android phones. • The Brand Prestige Factor: In China’s tier-3 and tier-4 cities, a pre-owned iPhone 13 or 14 carries significantly higher social status than a brand-new, mid-tier phone from Vivo, Oppo, or Xiaomi. • The Component Crunch Advantage: As second-tier Android OEMs are forced to raise retail prices due to soaring memory chip costs, the price gap narrows. A consumer deciding between a newly inflated $350 Android phone and a premium, certified pre-owned iPhone at identical pricing will overwhelmingly favor Apple. This migration severely depresses the sales volume of domestic mid-rangers. 2. Explosion of Organized, Standardized E-Commerce Platforms Historically, China’s second-hand phone market was heavily fragmented, plagued by counterfeit parts and lack of consumer trust. This volume forces a rapid professionalization of the market. • Escrow and Blockchain Tracking: Major domestic platforms like Zhuanzhuan, Idle Fish (Alibaba), and Aihuishou are scaling up operations using escrow systems and blockchain-backed inspection records. • The Dominant Price Tier: The bulk of these incoming devices will flood the highly lucrative 1,000 to 1,999 RMB ($140 to $275) tier, which represents over 43% of China’s total refurbished market volume. 3. Apple’s “Trojan Horse” for Long-Term Services Revenue Even when an iPhone is resold or handed down, it remains a highly profitable node in Apple’s ecosystem. • Expanding the Ecosystem Net: A hand-me-down iPhone given to a child, parent, or first-time iOS user represents a new active user on the network. • Services Monetization: These secondary users immediately begin spending on iCloud storage, Apple Music, and local App Store purchases. This ensures that even if Apple does not make money on the physical second-hand sale, its high-margin Services revenue continues to scale up in China. 4. Supply Chain Strain on Genuine Replacement Parts A sudden spike in the pool of 70 million used phones requires an enormous refurbishment infrastructure. • The Repair Bottleneck: The primary headwind for certified refurbishers in China will be accessing genuine OEM-grade replacement parts, specifically fresh batteries and screens. • The Gray Market Surge: Because official Apple-certified parts remain highly rationed, an extensive gray-market manufacturing ecosystem for aftermarket parts will boom in Shenzhen’s Huaqiangbei electronics district to satisfy the refurbishment rush. 5. Massive E-Waste Abatement and Carbon Offsets From a circular economy perspective, extending the life of 70 million premium devices serves as a massive environmental defense mechanism. • Carbon Displaced: Manufacturing a brand-new premium phone generates a high carbon footprint. Industry data indicates that reusing or extending the life of a single premium smartphone avoids an average of 55 kg of CO₂e emissions. • Environmental Impact: Re-deploying this massive pool of hardware into the market effectively abates millions of metric tons of carbon emissions, positioning this upgrade cycle as a major win for China’s national green circular economy goals.'
on Counterpoint: iPhone shipments in China grew 23% YOY in June quarter - '“Yes, and how many older iPhones are potential upgrades in China?” “The regulatory green light for Apple Intelligence in mainland China via Alibaba’s Qwen model unlocks a massive “AI super-cycle,” targeting an estimated 65 million to 75 million older iPhones in China that are physically unable to support on-device AI. The Upgrade Pool Scale in China Counterpoint Research data reveals that there are 95 million Apple Intelligence-capable iPhones actively in use across China. When weighed against Apple’s total active installed base in the country (which hovers between 160 million and 170 million devices), it means roughly 40% of all iPhones in China cannot run the new localized AI tools. [ Active iPhone Base in mainland China: ~165M Units ] ─► ~95M Units (AI-Capable: iPhone 15 Pro, 16 Series, 17 Series) ─► ~70M Units (NOT AI-Capable = Core Premium Upgrade Targets) ─> Includes: iPhone 13, 14, 15 Base, and older models Key Dynamics of the Chinese AI Super-Cycle • The Hardware RAM Line: Modern on-device AI models require robust physical hardware. Industry tracking highlights that 12GB of RAM is becoming the standard baseline for premium, local AI processing. While the 8GB models can handle entry-level queries, the upcoming iPhone 18 line and the premium folding Ultra are being explicitly marketed to unlock advanced, lag-free agentic actions via Alibaba’s local cloud. • Releasing the Pent-Up Demand: Chinese tech buyers are highly sensitive to software innovations. Because Apple Intelligence was absent from the mainland during its initial 2024–2025 global rollout, users delayed upgrading, stretching the average replacement cycle to around 38 months. The Alibaba integration acts as a psychological green light, triggering a massive release of that built-up consumer demand. • Neutralizing Huawei’s AI Advantage: Prior to this clearance, Huawei heavily leveraged its proprietary Pangu AI model to siphon premium users away from Apple. The localized Qwen partnership bridges the feature parity gap entirely, allowing Apple to aggressively market directly to the millions of luxury-tier users still holding onto older, non-AI hardware. Target Demographics Primed for a Q4 Upgrade Old iPhone Generation in China Estimated Base Size AI Eligibility Status Upgrade Probability (H2 2026) • iPhone 11 & 12 Series ~20 Million ❌ Total Incompatible Extremely High; past the 4-year lifecycle floor. • iPhone 13 & 14 Series ~30 Million ❌ Total Incompatible High; core premium segment looking for native AI features. • iPhone 15 & 16 Base Models ~20 Million ❌ Incompatible / Partial Moderate; form-factor driven buyers eye the Ultra or Pro lines.'
on Counterpoint: iPhone shipments in China grew 23% YOY in June quarter - '“any projections for the China market in Q3 and Q4 2026 and specifically for Apple and Huawei?” The broader Chinese smartphone market is projected to face widening contraction throughout H2 2026 due to an ongoing component supply crisis. However, Apple and Huawei are forecast to completely dominate and expand their market shares in both Q3 and Q4, turning the China market into a highly polarized two-horse race. The specific strategic projections for Apple and Huawei across the next two quarters reveal distinct paths to dominance: Q3 2026: Supply Insulation and Market Consolidation • The Second-Wave Pricing Wedge: In Q3, a second wave of retail price hikes will hit Android shelves as the cheap component inventories procured in late 2025 run entirely dry. While competitors are forced to raise prices again or cut lower-end inventory, Apple and Huawei will hold their price structures stable, drawing massive waves of hesitant upgrade-buyers. • Huawei’s Domestic Lock-In: Huawei is projected to maintain its No. 1 volume rank (aiming for a 20% shipment increase over the full year). It will leverage its highly resilient localized supply chain and massive demand for the Enjoy 90 Pro Max and Pura lines to capture price-sensitive consumers fleeing other inflating domestic brands. Apple’s Deflated Pre-Launch Q3: While Apple’s shipments will naturally slow slightly ahead of its autumn refresh, its Q2 growth of 23%—spurred by buyers intentionally pulling purchases forward to dodge expected H2 price hikes—gives it a highly stable financial cushion moving into the quarter. Q4 2026: The Premium Super-Cycle • Apple’s Localized AI Surge: Q4 is projected to yield record-breaking revenue for Apple in China. Following the crucial regulatory approval of Alibaba’s Qwen model to power Apple Intelligence natively on mainland devices, the upcoming iPhone refresh will capture an unprecedented volume of premium upgrades. • The Premium Foldable Battleground: Q4 will host a massive head-to-head clash in the luxury tier. Apple’s long-anticipated entry into the foldable space will expand the luxury market size, while Huawei will defend its margins using its successful wide-format Pura lines and next-generation Mate flagships. • Total Revenue Monopolization: By the end of Q4, Counterpoint and IDC projections indicate that Apple and Huawei will collectively control over 70% to 75% of the total dollar-value revenue in mainland China, effectively starving tier-2 competitors out of the premium segment. H2 2026 Projections Comparison Metric / Outlook • Q3 Shipment Trend Huawei – Strong Growth; absorbs mid-tier market flight. Apple – Stable / Moderate; sustained by iPhone 17 series residual momentum • Q4 Shipment Trend Huawei – High Volume Peak; driven by Mate-series upgrades. Apple – Extreme Surge; fueled by localized Apple Intelligence and hardware refreshes. • ASP Trajectory Huawei – Slightly Rising; premium device mix increases. Apple – Extremely High; driven heavily by Pro/Max lines and foldable entries. ((what’s not to like if you can maintain and then increase sales strongly, plus increase ASP’s (involuntarily to some extent) at the same time – a perfect storm provided the upper end China market is resilient AND big enough. “Would you like to explore how Alibaba’s local AI integration is expected to change the upgrade rate for older iPhone models in China this winter?“'


