Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Wonderful summation, Anice! (standing ovation)'
on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Morning, Anice. “ [Apple ecpects] cash generation to be … er, robust!” Oh, yeah. It’ll be a veritable torrent, and it will only grow from there. Of course, excess cash is given very little value…except it funds both buybacks and dividends, which can both be expected to grow. But everyone here expected that, right? They realized that’s why I was saying Apple deserved a P/E of 40+, right? (crickets)'
on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'To me, the positive surprise from the earnings call was the surge in demand for Mac Mini and Mac Studio that Apple won’t be able to meet for months. It seems AI enthusiasts are buying Macs in droves to create and run their own AI projects. This does not mean death to Nvidia. But investors will surely take away from the call the fact that in the near-to-medium term — and sooner than Apple management predicted internally – Apple will become a formidable player in the AI hardware game. So eyes turn to WWDC now. Let’s see if Apple will have the software and related services to turn this incipient hardware opportunity into something bigger.'
on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Prolly held back buybacks due to uncertainty to paying high tariffs this past Q.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'There is a refactored, rebuilt Apple tree — root to branch on new silicon, device, services, and AI foundations. And clearly a new customer and ecosystem strategy. built around Community. Apple is getting ready for a massive new phase, akin to the move from Apple II to Macintosh to iPhone. neo is more than the MacBook, it’s the whole company. neoApple the MacBook neo is the first shot across the bow, the first fruits of the refactoring… expect a series of new introductions to leverage neoApple in their positioning, pricing, or capabilities, leaving peers gasping to catch up. What happens when meaningful AI can be run capably enough at the edge? Apple will show what’s possible next month. It may turn out that you don’t need a datacenter when you have one in your pocket, or on your desk. Homebrew revolution in digital is already exploding, neoApple will give rise to AI’s VisiCalc moment… I can feel it.'
on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Bart, in September I commented on Wamsi’s analysis and how, like me, felt that Apple’s margins were going to breach 50% soon… I noted at the time that the year looked like a refactoring of the entire Apple stack, an iteration of Apple built on completely refreshed foundations – business, product and services all meshed together with tighter latency, more solid state control of the moving parts and an expanded addressable market. This would have resulted in massive efficiencies that impact margin and Apple has an embarrassment of riches when it comes to margin, giving it unrivaled optionality compared to peers. (if there are any) “With the 17device/26OS line now earning, I suspect they are now swimming in efficiencies — manufacturing, operations, other efficiencies that are leaving them flush with margin to allocate to a generous variety of objectives. Including keeping their prices stable in a highly inflationary environment.” If, against RAM and supply chain constraints, they are hitting 49.3 in the current quarter, I would imagine their lower guidance for next may be more product introduction or launch costs maybe, than any long term erosion of margin… That, and the fact that they thrown in the towel on the nett cash to zero quest seems to imply that they expect cash generation to be … er, robust!'
on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Actually, on transcript review courtesy of Six Colors, June quarter margins wwwre guided to 47.5% to 48.5% gross margins, this after a better than expected 49.3% gross margin for the March Quarter. If Apple can maintain gross margins in the upper range of >48% while reducing constraints on supply to meeting pent up demand for iPhones and Macs, June will be another promising growth quarter. Yeah, yeah to the naysayers, it’s just a steady 14-17% growth in a mature industry segment and market, while other AI darlings are thrilling us with roller coaster rides up on demand while taking our breath away on downhills with 10’s to 100’s of billions of AI infrastructure spending. The big difference here is Apple is keeping all of this out in the open and in their own books – what you see is what you get. With the AI companies, circular financing, SPV’s to shield / hide expenditures from parent finances, and oh yeah, what is the monetization and financial model that will provide ROI on all this spending? Meanwhile, Apple is making money the old fashioned way, actually selling products and services to loyal and willing consumers and users world wide, and backing that up with known, physical goods and services that people are already willing AND able to pay for, now. And Apple has now 2.5 billion active devices in over 1.6 billion active users hands and homes, all platforms to deliver AI when and where people want it and will use it, all with privacy and personalization missing from competitors. Apple’s monetization is already proven, Android and other AI providers seem limited to specific businesses and may not yet be proven, at least in the long term.'
on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'ben luna said: Yeah, I feel bad for whatever is going on with him. I really enjoyed debating with him. What a pity. **Ben, I agree with all three sentences of your comment. IMO, It’s unfortunate that Tommo had such a compulsion to pontificate about Apple and to trade AAPL. I still remember one of his comments to me including the statement that he owned “8000 shares of AAPL in 2001”. It’s unfortunate he didn’t just hold on to those 8,000 AAPL shares and continue pontificating about Apple.'
on Macalope: Three reasons Apple's CEO switch has been so chill - 'OT: and no better place to put my thought. I have a feeling that Apple’s next Mac computer will be an M-5 rack mount. Performance will be greater than any PC farm (while requiring fewer nodes), consumes less energy to function, consumes less energy for environment considerations and requires less tech support, not to mention more effectively securing a firm’s data from hackers. Mac Studio+? After experiencing the efficiencies of MacOS and Apple silicon, how long would be before enterprises start swapping out Windows desktops?'
on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Congratulations to all you guys here who make this a truly remarkable page of unsurpassable Apple knowledge, as well as sensible conjecture. Hat’s off!'
on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - '” a massive amount of RAM requires a serial connection to transmit the data” That’s the throughput bottleneck that unified memory solves. Over the years Apple has been quietly solving the problems of running “AI” on device. Each time explaining how the new tech incrementally improves performance, without noting that the collective of all these technological breakthroughs are ideal for a local on device “AI” server.'
on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Yeah, I feel bad for whatever is going on with him. I really enjoyed debating with him. What a pity.'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q2 2026 - 'After reading all these theories about what Apple could have done differently, so they wouldn’t be supply constrained, I’m reminded of an old marketing adage: “If you want an American to want something, tell them they can’t have it”. You want a Mac Mini? You can’t have it. You want a Mac Studio? You can’t have it. You want a MacBook Neo? You can’t have it You want an iPhone 17 xx? You can’t have it. With influencers telling the world all these products are best in class, especially if you want to run the hot new AI software locally. It doesn’t take long until a feeding frenzy is created, driving even greater desire. “It may take a few months to achieve inventory equilibrium.” Only adds to the hysteria, because the media loves a story like this. Every cub reporter will be writing about what’s being said by every other cub reporter. And just like that the de facto standard for AI agentic platforms are Mac computers. Everybody that believes they need all that power will wait to get what they want, effectively freezing out anything the competition is offering. “Tell them they can’t have it” I’ll wager that by October 1 (start of new fiscal year) supply equilibrium will be quietly achieved, but the mindset will linger forever, “Macs are what you need, and you have to order early to get one this year”. Caveat: this only works if the brand is aspirational. What brand other than Apple is aspirational?'
on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'I was recently surprised to learn that this wasn’t the case for at least the A series processors. I‘m guessing that there is some complication preventing Apple and others from having done this already for performance reasons alone. I.e there must be something that makes this more complicated than it sounds, such as the caches are small enough to wire up directly in parallel, but a massive amount of RAM requires a serial connection to transmit the data? But maybe this RAM crunch will push the innovation forward through necessity?'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q2 2026 - 'I agree that the supply constraints they are having aren’t across-the-board, Bart. But a year or so ago, when they could have order x quantities of those critical items, they ordered y quantities. And again, this is a personal observation. I’m not asking anyone ro agree with me. Let’s just all hope that folks will be willing to hang in there and put up with the wait. I can guarantee you lamps are burning through the night trying to figure out how they’re going to cut themselves in on Apple’s action!'
on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'I don’t mean “white flag” in a pejorative sense, Fred. But for a while now they’ve been struggling to hit net cash zero due to their huge net cash flow, so I’ve always seen it as inevitable that they weren’t going to reach it – which they’ve now acknowledged. It’s another of those good problems to have.'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q2 2026 - 'Very good news, and it explains why Macs weren’t even better. The next two quarters will be solid going into new fall iPhones and into the holidays. This might be the best growth year in a while for AAPL. “For Mac, in the June quarter, there’s two factors that are driving the constraints. One is that on the Mac Mini and the Mac Studio, both of these are amazing platforms for AI and agentic tools and the customer recognition of that is happening faster than what we had predicted, and so we saw higher than expected demand. The second reason is that the customer response to Mac Neo has just been off the charts, with higher than expected demand, and the March quarter record for customers, we set a March quarter record for customers new to the Mac, partly due to the Neo. We think, looking forward, that the Mac Mini and the Mac Studio may take several months to reach supply-demand balance.”'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q2 2026 - 'Joseph, I don’t think Apple is wanting to be production constrained on Macs or iPhones, they can produce almost at will any number of chassis, SOC chips (or at least what they contracted TSMC for), and all other parts including sufficient displays from Samsung Display. What is a rate limiting issue is now availability and cost of their advanced A- and M- series TSMC chips on latest processes, and of course the LPDDR5X memory in both smartphone, desktop and notebook versions, and the competition for now limited volumes of same from all memory manufacturers who have pivoted to trying to fulfill the seemingly endless and insatiable appetite for HBM memory chips used in AI servers. Hopefully, Apple can produce all it can and get supply-demand balance back. Cook said in response to that question that it may take several months to do so From Six Colors Transcript, here: https://sixcolors.com/post/2026/04/this-is-tim-and-john-and-kevin-transcript-of-apples-q2-2026-financial-call/ Tim Cook: “Yeah. Hi, Eric. Thanks for your comments. We were constrained during the March quarter. This was primarily on iPhone and to a lesser extent on the Mac, and as we talked about in the last call, the constraints were primarily driven by the availability of the advanced nodes our SoCs are produced on. If you look forward to the June quarter, the majority of our supply constraints will be on several Mac models, given the continued high levels of demand that we’re seeing, and we have less flexibility in the supply chain than we normally would. For Mac, in the June quarter, there’s two factors that are driving the constraints. One is that on the Mac Mini and the Mac Studio, both of these are amazing platforms for AI and agentic tools and the customer recognition of that is happening faster than what we had predicted, and so we saw higher than expected demand. The second reason is that the customer response to Mac Neo has just been off the charts, with higher than expected demand, and the March quarter record for customers, we set a March quarter record for customers new to the Mac, partly due to the Neo. We think, looking forward, that the Mac Mini and the Mac Studio may take several months to reach supply-demand balance. And so, hopefully that gives you a view of both Q2 and Q3 on the supply side.” Not a bad problem to have though.'
on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - '“White flag”? At least this quarter, they have increased cash and paid down debt whilst dialing back share repurchases. The increase in dividend remains the same at 1 penny per quarter increase annually. One time or new pattern? I’d guess they want flexibility. First to pay off bonds rather than refi if the wars disrupt economies further. Second to fund strategic acquisition(s).'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q2 2026 - 'Congrats on a well done win. Regarding Mac revenues, sales of lower priced Neo’s would have raised sales numbers but diluted revenues and ASP’s. Given that 14 of the 20 participants estimated between $8.60-$10+, expectations were high for increased Mac Revenues above the 6% result. As David suggests, memory costs, availability and production may have actually constrained sales numbers and subsequent revenues. No matter, considering solid backlogs of orders for Mac Neo and mid to high end Mac’s, this is just pushing demand and delivery into Q3, assuming Apple can improve delivery. Neo’s will make great graduation and Back to school gifts and educational institutions will be deciding on whether Mac Neo makes inroads on new school year budgets. Meanwhile, small business and enterprise now have options for running their own Mac-based AI locally instead of paying monthly subscription fees to AI infrastructure and providers. Considering the costs and data privacy issues involved, Mac may see substantial uptake over the next year.'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q2 2026 - 'The interesting thing for me is that this is normally a production slack period for Apple, but it seems clear production is still humming. Seems a perfect opportunity for Apple to be gearing up for more production. But my past experience of Apple is that they don’t really like to gamble, production-wise. They have appeared to leave cash on the table rather than gamble on the possibility of over-supply. I’d love it if, for once, they took a chance and let production rip. I just don’t have much hope that they actually will.'
on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Now that I think about it, unless I’m wrong, you can’t buy physical unified memory silicon. That would mean that TurboQuant would have to be modified to benefit Apple’s hardware. I don’t if, or how that could be done. The important thing is that Apple has alternatives to just paying more.'
on Best and worst Apple analysts: Fiscal Q2 2026 - 'Hi, Troy. I think this was ramping up last quarter. And it may still be ramping up. BTW, my loaded MacBook Pro is shipping today and is scheduled to arrive on the early side, so about 2 weeks from order to delivery. So Apple appears to be able to handle Mac demand, at least for now. Which I see as a positive. It may also account for the high future estimates for the June quarter given today.'
on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'I see the big after-hours bump has now moderated to a medium bump. I also see that total volume has increased to almost 84 M trades. Will tomorrow see another high volume day? And will that volume steamroll today’s $267.50 Max Pain number? Tune in tomorrow and find out!'
on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'When Apple pops post call, that’s a boost that has legs IMHO. BTO Tommo’s take made me vomit in my mouth. He’s jumped the shark.'
on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Thanks Gregg, Going out on a limb, if Google and Apple, in combo or separately, radically reduce the cost (CAPEX and OPEX) of AI, parts or all of AI, we might see disruptive changes in valuations. Right now, the price Nvidia pays TSMC for a chip is 1/10th the fully burdened CAPEX of a hyper scalar’s data center.'
on Apple delivers another record fiscal quarter — Q2 2026 - 'Thanks for the quote, Raj! It’s pretty clear to me what he meant, but just why it would elicit a big reversal isn’t as clear. I think Apple just finally admitted it was futile to make net cash neutral happen. Ergo, they expect to see net cash neutral drift away going forward. My guess on the possible reason for it adding to the bump: The possibility that, at the same time Apple is revisiting debt versus cash, they may be examining the worth of buybacks versus dividends as a means for keeping long term investors happy. Now, folks like Donna and me that don’t own enough AAPL to make dividends worth much prefer buybacks. But folks that own millions of dollars worth will likely prefer dividends (even though buybacks are invisibly more beneficial to Apple, since you can take your dividend and go buy something else other than AAPL with it). Of course, dividends outside of a retirement fund are taxed much, much more than buybacks, but that cold, hard feeling of cash in hand still attracts a certain number of investors. My guess is that Apple has been under pressure to change the balance of buybacks and dividends. That possibility is somewhat reinforced by the simultaneously-announced 4% increase in dividends. So is this bump essentially a “cheer from the sidelines” for an increased dividend? I guess that’s a possibility.'


