Recent Comments

  • Joseph Bland on Château de Mercuès - 'Totally agree, Gregg. Thanks, Bart! And thanks, Mr. Federighi! Apple and its users are indeed fortunate to have such a great communicator in their stable!'
  • David Emery on Chateâu de la Treyne - 'What he said! As long as you keep the travel photos coming, I’m OK with the current level of contribution. But more photos, particularly of castle interiors, would also be appreciated.'
  • Joseph Bland on Chateâu de la Treyne - 'We’re managing, PED, as I hope you can see. Keep having a blast, and no worries! Signed, Friends of Philip Elmer DeWitt30.com!'
  • Joseph Bland on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'One more: ROI/share from buybacks alone on AAPL bought pre-buyback as of 9:40 AM PDT: (331/72.30=) about 458%. And those metrics continue to compound since Apple’s net cash flow continues to be under-appreciated, giving Apple the chance to buy back even more undervalued stock – even as I type…. Congrats to the Apple longs!'
  • Joseph Bland on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'I agree, Robert. As of June 6th, since 2013, Apple has spent about $853 billion buying back its own stock Other comparative metrics to be watched include: Total number of split-adjusted shares bought back: (26.5-14.7=) 11.8 B Percentage of shares bought back: (11.8/26.5=) 44.53% Apple’s average cost per split-adjusted share: (853/11.8=) $72.30/share.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Château de Mercuès - '” https://youtu.be/y227RF0smAg?is=f1Yk_LzvuZY5iua6%27” Wow. Just WoW. Thank you Bart. There are foldables, then there is Duo.'
  • Bart Yee on Château de Mercuès - 'This website lets you explore nearly 30 years of Apple product colors “The folks at sheets.works are back at it again, this time with an interactive archive of 341 Apple product colors spanning nearly three decades. Here are the details. ’Made by someone who still misses the Flower Power iMac’ We’ve covered some of sheets.works’ previous projects, including interactive timelines for every iPhone and every iPad Apple has ever released.” “Now, the site is back with a new project called Apple in Colour, which they call “a celebration of every bright, brilliant, joyful thing they ever made.” From the original Bondi Blue iMac to the Burgundy iPhone 18 Pro Max, the website lists “every bright, colourful thing Apple has ever sold, in one glorious pile,” complete with each product’s release year and official Apple color name (or number, in some cases). The catalog also includes iPads, iPods, HomePods, and even the (PRODUCT)RED Mac Pro from 2013, as part of what they beautifully describe as “the most colourful thing they ever did was also the kindest,” referring to Apple’s long-running partnership with (RED) to help fund the fight against AIDS. To check out Apple in Colour, follow this link. And while you’re in a nostalgic mood, also be sure to also check out nanochromatic, a project by 9to5Mac’s own Dylan McDonald that “aims to celebrate and document the vibrant history of iPod color options.”” Excerpt From “This website lets you explore nearly 30 years of Apple product colors” 9to5Mac https://apple.news/AQx7AwCukQvyE_OQnHvOqZg This material may be protected by copyright.'
  • Bart Yee on Château de Mercuès - 'John Gruber on spitballing what Apple may announce in October along with the Duo going on sale, plus when will review units be seeded to reviewers? “On the new episode of The Talk Show that dropped over the weekend, Andru Edwards and I talked first about the September event Apple held three weeks ago at Apple Park, and then moved on to speculate about what they might do in October. The rumor mill says Apple has a bunch of as-yet-unannounced products coming: a new iPad Mini (generation 8), new Apple TV hardware (4th generation — maybe they’ll give it a better name than “Apple TV 4K”?), new HomePod Mini (2nd generation), and an altogether new HomePod-type hub with a display. Also, October is the usual month for new Mac hardware, like maybe M6 iMacs and a new high-end MacBook lineup with OLED displays that (ugh) are also touchscreens. “That’d be a lot to introduce all at once. Maybe they hold one event/keynote movie for all of it, or maybe they split it in two — one for “home” stuff, and one for new Mac stuff. (Not sure where the iPad Mini would go in that split.) Or maybe they announce it all in one keynote but split the product availability, like they did with the iPhones 18 Pro and Duo at the keynote three weeks ago. Maybe the new MacBooks, if they really do have touchscreens, get announced in October but won’t ship until November to give developers time to adopt touch APIs — just like with the Duo. Apple is secretive, but they stick to predictable patterns if you pay attention.” “The dates we do know are those for the iPhone Duo, with pre-orders beginning on Friday October 16 and shipments beginning one week later on October 23. Apple, in my experience, sticks to a very predictable schedule for review units. They typically go into reviewers’ hands in the middle of the week (Tuesday or Wednesday) when pre-orders begin (usually a Friday, sometimes a Saturday, like this month, when the iPhones 18 Pro and new Apple Watches went on sale Saturday September 12). Reviewers typically get 6 or 7 days with hardware before the embargo lifts for publishing reviews. (Most reviewers have their reviews ready to publish by that time; others enjoy the whooshing sound the embargo deadline makes as it goes by.) The review embargo thus typically lifts on the Tuesday or Wednesday of the same week when the product is set to begin shipping to customers on Friday.” “I have been told absolutely nothing about when, or even if, Apple plans to seed advance units of the iPhone Duo to reviewers. In my experience, even off the record, Apple never talks about these things in advance, nor offers hints. But if they do seed review units of the Duo, I would expect that to start on Tuesday October 13 or Wednesday the 14th, with an embargo for reviews to publish on October 20 or 21, two or three days ahead of the Duo reaching customers on Friday the 23rd. It’s also my experience that Apple does not like shipping high-profile new products like the Duo before they are released to the public. They prefer handing review units like the Duo to reviewers in person. You sign the embargo agreement in person, and they hand you the product in person. One natural way to hand reviewers iPhone Duo units in person would be to hold a media event, for other new products, on October 13 or 14. Kill two birds with one stone.” Excerpt From “★ Spitballing Predictions for Apple’s October” Daring Fireball https://apple.news/Awrk6LYjMPsacWclPzCcX8w This material may be protected by copyright.'
  • Bart Yee on Château de Mercuès - 'Emmy wins and recent premieres help Apple TV reach highest weekly viewership ever https://9to5mac.com/2026/09/28/emmy-wins-and-recent-premieres-help-apple-tv-reach-highest-weekly-viewership-ever/'
  • Bart Yee on Château de Mercuès - 'Nice interview with Craig Federighi with thoughtful non-typical questions. https://youtu.be/y227RF0smAg?is=f1Yk_LzvuZY5iua6'
  • Bart Yee on Château de Mercuès - 'So who are the biggest players revenue wise in the semiconductor foundry world? This report from Counterpoint illustrates it quite well, it’s Apple’s Partner TSMC with over 40% of the total global foundry revenues. https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/global-foundry-20-revenue-rises-25-yoy-to-a-record-966-billion-in-as-advanced'
  • Gregg Thurman on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - '”Any comments?” Yes. Your example covers a 2 year period. My example covers a 22 year period. Both are valid as far as they go. It may be that I should look for periods where historic trend shifts start and stop, example: AAPL’s adherence to a 22 year trend may be greatly challenged, as a clearer AI strategy (a major catalyst) is revealed by Apple. My gut tells me that the seasonality of Apple’s revenue will revert to the norm over time. That reversion could take some time. As AI has the potential to greatly impact revenue trends for an extended time (3-5 years?), my historical analysis may prove to be out of date. The launch of iPhone 6 and iPad could be comparable shift periods.'
  • Bart Yee on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'That’s for NVdia, not Apple. “ On September 28, 2026, NVIDIA announced that its Board of Directors authorized a historic $150 billion increase to its existing share repurchase program. This massive addition brought the company’s total remaining buyback authorization to $235 billion, which management expects to execute through fiscal year 2028 (ending January 2028). It stands as the largest single stock buyback authorization increase in U.S. corporate history, surpassing Apple’s $110 billion program from 2024. Prior to this record-setting move, the company (NVDA) had last expanded its repurchase program by $80 billion just a few months earlier in May 2026.” Apple authorized its $110B in buybacks on May 2, 2024. Apple also authorized $100B in 2025 AND 2026. That’s $310B over the past 3 years, with another potential authorization of $100B in about 8 months. While NVDA is flush with cash now and is rewarding shareholders with it, let’s see if they will have a sustained buyback run even close to Apple’s breadth and scope.'
  • Gregg Thurman on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - '”My apologies in advance, Gregg, if I got this wrong… You didn’t. You actually explained my post better than I did. Thank you. A very long time ago, a poster on an AOL AAPL forum said AAPL’s trading problem was the way it traded. He argued that Apple’s 4th quarter should be its highest, and that its 1st quarter should be the lowest with each subsequent quarter rising until it got to the December quarter. I responded that Apple’s FISCAL 4th quarter was the highest because it corresponded to the highest of the calendar year, both of which was the December quarter. This led me to study the relationship of Apple’s quarters to each other. What I found was that Apple’s FQ1 (December quarter) established a base from which you could forecast revenue for FQ2, FQ3 and FQ4 as each represented a constant percentage of the full year, ie., December quarter (FQ1) represented ~31% of the full year. March quarter (FQ2) represented ~24% of the full year. June quarter (FQ3) represented ~22% of the full year. September quarter (FQ4) represented ~23% of the full year. This pattern emerged after Apple shifted iPhone launch from July to September. If you divide December results by 31% you get projected annual revenue. If you then multiply each subsequent quarter by its representative percent you get a fairly accurate estimate of each quarter’s revenue. AAPL’s prints follow the same pattern as it follows revenue. This explains the post-WWDC selloff each year, as AAPL rallies going into the event, but that rally is not based on anticipated revenue for that quarter. AAPL gets ahead of its annual pattern and a natural selloff immediately follows. Generally the last week of June establishes a new quarter (September) with a new, higher, historical, revenue expectation that is reinforced by management’s September quarter GUIDANCE issued at the end of July. Generally AAPL rallies from its Summer low (around July 4th) ~25% to December quarter Earnings report and March quarter GUIDANCE. I back tested this to 2004, omitting 2008 and 2009 because their results were so far out of the norm. The percentages by which AAPL adheres to its historic pattern is subject to launch dates and customer response to new products. There will always be macro events. Their severity is always unknown until a week or two has passed from their onset.'
  • Bart Yee on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'Gregg, thanks, that’s what I surmised rereading your blended statements, you believe January’s report Guidance (for Q2 FY2027) will show a 20% decline of Earnings (and/or Revenues?) from the December Quarter (Q1 FY 2027). Let’s look at the prior 2 years of “normal” iPhone Q1 and Q2 cadences. FY2025 vs FY2024 Q1 rev. & Earnings YoY $124.30B vs $119.58B +4% $2.40 vs $2.18 +10% Q2 rev & Earnings YoY $95.36B vs $90.75B +5% $1.65 vs $1.53 +7.8% 2024 sequential Q2/Q1 Revenue $90.75B/$119.58B = -24.1% EPS $1.53/$2.18 = -29.8% 2025 Sequential Q2/Q1 Revenue $95.36B/$124.30B = -23.3% EPS $1.65/$2.40 = -31.3% FY2026 Q1 Rev & Earnings YoY $143.76B vs $124.30B +16% $2.84 vs $2.40 +18% Q2 Rev & Earnings YoY $111.18B vs $95.36B +17% $2.01 vs $1.65 +22% 2026 Sequential Q2/Q1 Revenue $111.18B/$143.76B = -22.7% EPS $2.01/$2.84 = -29.2% So over the last 3 years for the first two fiscal quarters, sequential declines from blockbuster Q1’s to very good Q2’s has been: Revenue % -24.1 + -23.3 + -22.7 = -70.1/3 = -23.4% average. EPS % -29.8 + -31.3 + -29.2 = -90.3/3 = -30.1% average Note despite ever increasing revenues in Q1’s, Q2 has increased a little higher (or grown a little faster), percentage wise, slowly bringing down the sequential gap from Q1 to Q2, meaning revenues in Q2 are rising at a slightly higher rate than Q1, assuming that Q1 was acceptably high enough (usually beyond expectations). EPS is a different story because even if net income grew similarly, the share count is also decreasing sequentially (but not linearly due to buybacks vs shares issued for compensation), making EPS numbers in this narrow window harder to interpret. But at least the sequential EPS of Q2/Q1 2026 is the lowest differential of the 3 years. So a decline of ~20% sequentially of Q2/Q1, assuming Q1 is still a very good to blockbuster quarter, (which is a question given the increased prices, split iPhone introduction missing the usually hot selling base iPhone model and the general economic state of most consumers for last quarter 2026), would suggest Q2 was actually increasing or accelerating at least revenues and EPS (maybe). This was suggested as an unstated goal by some analysts to help even out surges in revenues, plus move base, Air (middle iPhone) and e models revenues into and above previous Q2 quarters at the end and/or pushing full quarter iPhone revenue increases into sequentially Q3 Quarters. Personally, I think Apple moving base and other models helps keep high cost TSMC advanced node processor production much more evenly spaced, allows for easier yield and accumulation of SoC chips, maybe hoping for some memory chip cost moderation by evening out demand, and reduces Foxconn/Apple labor costs by reducing holiday labor surge demands at iPhone City plants in China, maybe even continued tariff relief. This takes a much broader 30,000 ft view of production from basic supplies to finished products and may further optimize production cost savings, helping to mitigate margin pressures brought on by memory costs and best preserving hardware margins. Any comments?'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'As I continue my journey to a more resplendent and impactful life I’ve chosen this week to reinvigorate the discussions in the AAPL Independent Analysts group on LinkedIn. If you’d like to connect on Linkedin, please use this URL and send a connection request. 

www.linkedin.com/in/robertleitao Once we connect I’ll send an invitation to join the group. I enjoy increasing the number of venues for informed conversations about Apple.'
  • Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Château de Mercuès - 'We usually go with Vermont Bicycle Tours (VBT). This time we tried Backroads. More expensive. Better lodging.'
  • Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Château de Mercuès - 'E-bike. Thankfully.'
  • Joseph Bland on Château de Mercuès - 'Glad to hear you’re having a blast, PED! Just remember please: You’re no longer a spring chicken, so pace yourself! Aside from you being the cement for this blog, we care deeply about you, and wish you and yours long and rewarding lives!'
  • Will Grover on Château de Mercuès - 'If I might ask, are you doing this via an organized tour group? if so, is there a particular tour guide biz you might recommend?'
  • Joseph Bland on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'Morning, Bart. Just to drop my oar in, Gregg’s two comments sound contradictory, but aren’t necessarily so. “GUIDANCE, while reflecting solid YoY growth, will reflect a decline in Revenue and Earnings of ~20% from the December quarter.” “January EARNINGS report reflected YoY growth [in the December quarter], GUIDANCE will reflect a ~20% decline [in March quarter earnings relative to the usual massive December quarter earnings].” That is, the percentage of year over year earnings for the March quarter may go up ( and almost certainly will!), but not as much as the sheer amount of year over year earnings for the December quarter year over year earnings. Why is that important? The clue is in this statement, IMO: “January GUIDANCE can help mitigate the transition from January results.” That to me says: Everyone expects a blowout December earnings report. What will be important is the guidance for the March earnings report. Remember that Gregg is watching Investor Sentiment (IS) very closely, with an eye towards predicting future IS. My apologies in advance, Gregg, if I got this wrong….'
  • Gregg Thurman on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - '”GUIDANCE will reflect a ~20% decline” from the December quarter. I may have overstated the equity’s decline based on average revenue decline going from Q1 to Q2.'
  • Joseph Bland on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - '“ Massively expanding its share buyback program…” Thanks, Robert! My ears just perked….'
  • David Emery on Château de Mercuès - 'Ask your guide: Isn’t Cahors a significant Cathar site?'
  • Robert Stack on Château de Mercuès - 'PED: Is this an e-bike tour? Or are you and the others peddling away using solely leg muscle?'
  • Robert Douglass on Château de Mercuès - 'Having spent time in that area myself, I highly recommend “the black wines of Cahors”… smooth, dark, yummy. By the way, as I recall, that Mercues chateau is high up… not a leisurely bike ride from the main road. Enjoy your trip!'
  • Adam Foster on Château de Mercuès - 'Looks like PED is eating well! The gastronomic experience The Lot Valley, on the outskirts of Cahors, nestled between the wild Causse plateau and sweeping meanders, is home to a wealth of culinary treasures: black truffles, saffron, foie gras, free-range lamb… La Table de Mercuès offers an immersive experience of cuisine deeply rooted in this region. Chef Clément Costes welcomes every guest as an invitation to discover a sensitive and discerning interpretation of the Lot region and Occitanie. His commitment is based on a firm conviction: cooking begins with respect for the produce. Ingredients are carefully selected, prioritising those sourced locally – grown or reared within 100 km – in order to preserve their identity. This approach gives rise to a true poetry of flavours, expressed through three set menus – ‘Découverte’, ‘Balade’ and ‘Voyage’ – comprising 3, 4 or 6 courses. A gourmet restaurant where precision of execution meets emotion. The menu may change depending on the day’s catch and availability'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'Massively expanding its share buyback program, NVIDIA’s shares are up $4.68 or 2.08% at $229.75 in late morning trading. Apple is off $.020 at $340.87 after setting a new all-time closing high on Friday. At 11:30am in the east, 72% of S&P 500 components are in the red. All four major indexes are also below Friday’s closing levels.'
  • Steven Philips on This week's Apple trading strategies (9/28-10/2/26) - 'Put it right here! Seems like any new Kiraa video is worth watching.'
  • Steven Philips on Apple at $341.07: A new record close - 'Stupid is as stupid does. 🙁'