Recent Comments

  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'The four major indexes closed in the red today with the DJIA dropping 1.13% with six components of the index dropping by 2% or more. Home Depot led the index lower, dropping 3.54% to $312.42. Apple, a DJIA component, dropped $3.42 or 1.22% to close at $276.83, AMD, which reports after the close tomorrow, fell $19 or 5.27% today to finish the session at $341.54.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Evercore: Gaming is dragging down the App Store - 'Thanks All, for answering the question. It seems App Store declines are the result of overall market saturation. I wonder how in-app recurring revenue is doing.'
  • Joseph Bland on Look at the cool things Nvidia is doing with the Apple Vision Pro (video) - 'As a mechanical designer who uses solid modeling, this is, simply, mind-blowing. It may well give me what I wanted when I bought my Vision Pro within weeks of them becoming available. Since it’s truly a partnership with Apple, it gives me the ability to generate complex, living 3d models in “partnership” with a personal AI, while still maintaining privacy. Constructing prototypes is exceedingly expensive and time-consuming, and also difficult to “show” to prospective customers, clients, and investors. I’m stoked!'
  • Richard Gayle on Evercore: Gaming is dragging down the App Store - 'Did a quick look online. Gaming downloads are flat to slightly down, mainly from post pandemic highs. But in-app purchases have increased. So, a saturated market for new games but increasing engagement from already active users seems to be the trend. I wonder of Evercore captured in-app purchasing separately or even at all.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Apple volume was almost perfectly “average” today (45.4M trades vs the average of 44.1 M). But in terms of a higher volume January and February as opposed to a lower volume March and April, it was also part of the much- increased volume of the previous two trading days. Ergo, I expect volume, barring non-Apple specific news, to start moderating downwards going forward. I also expect Apple to get back in open market purchases, thus supporting the stock price. That Apple is presently undervalued should be much more apparent today than it was a week ago. And between the, to me, obvious failure of Mr. Market today to acknowledge that reality and Apple’s return to open market buybacks, I expect we’ll shortly begin seeing movement towards yet another series of ATHs, hopefully finally taking AAPL past the $300 resistance level, and, at the very least, returning us back to a P/E of 35.5. Which, at the present Averaged EPS of $8.26 (per Yahoo Finance), would get us to (35.5×8.26=) $293.23/share.'
  • Robert Stack on Evercore: Gaming is dragging down the App Store - 'Well I recently recall reading that our favorite purveyor of games, Mr Sweeney, announced sizable layoffs at Epic. So I asked Gemini to refresh my memory – it replied: “Epic Games announced in March 2026 that it is laying off over 1,000 employees, representing a significant restructuring due to spending more than it makes, driven by a decline in Fortnite engagement that began in 2025. The cuts, which include veteran staff, are aimed at securing the company’s financial future, with CEO Tim Sweeney citing extreme industry market conditions.” Further on, Gemini said those 1000 cuts were 16% of its workforce. Personally, I suspect the decline in Fortnite engagement that Mr Sweeney cites started much sooner than 2025…'
  • Aaron Belich on Evercore: Gaming is dragging down the App Store - 'Well… app revenue is very easy to be realized outside of the App Store now. Did people really believe that those rulings wouldn’t have an impact?'
  • Kirk Burgess on Evercore: Gaming is dragging down the App Store - 'Interesting. I suspect it is somewhat attributable to the explosion in people using “prediction markets” (gambling) as a form of entertainment.'
  • Fred Stein on Look at the cool things Nvidia is doing with the Apple Vision Pro (video) - 'Recommend: Listen through to the end. At about 20 minutes in, he makes it clear only AVP has what they need to make it real. And that Apple is a great partner. Icing on cake, at the end, the interviewer says; “Nvidia and Apple, my two favorite companies.”'
  • Fred Stein on Look at the cool things Nvidia is doing with the Apple Vision Pro (video) - 'I wondered about this too. Sorry no answer. Maybe they just needed a local ‘box’ that they could put Nvidia cards into. Hopefully that’s a temporary solution. Later, though, he raved about the processing on AVP that NO ONE ELSE does and unlocks the magic.'
  • Dan Scropos on Evercore: Gaming is dragging down the App Store - '“Enter the Apple Vision Pro. New more capable software requires a new, more capable platform.” And possibly an acquisition? Ternus might be just the right guy to guide the Vision Pro/Nvidia technology into the next frontier of both gaming and Services (F1/other sports, concerts, etc). Nintendo and Perplexity fit those criteria. Apple Arcade would be a dominant force with the Nintendo legacy library. It’s like the Disney of gaming. And perfect for a new suite of games via Vision Pro.'
  • Fred Stein on Look at the cool things Nvidia is doing with the Apple Vision Pro (video) - 'Agree. Repeat a question I raised in the past; “Who would leak to Gurman?”'
  • Gregg Thurman on Evercore: Gaming is dragging down the App Store - 'I’m also surprised that Daryanani didn’t offer a platform comparison. How are gaming apps doing on Windows and Android? Is iOS an outlier, or following an industry trend? Where is the next generation of gaming going to come from?'
  • Gregg Thurman on Evercore: Gaming is dragging down the App Store - '” Casual gaming on smartphones … has become saturated” I’m surprised that so few don’t see this as the end point of a technology lifecycle. There are more iterations of the same games, but nothing really new. I have six games on my iPad, I play mostly just two, and one on my iPhone. None on my desktop. I’m not claiming I’m typical, but I’ll bet I’m close. Enter the Apple Vision Pro. New more capable software requires a new, more capable platform.'
  • Steven Philips on Evercore: Gaming is dragging down the App Store - '@PED: I expect you’re right. It would be interesting to see a breakdown of the types of games and prices of those being sold on the App Store. I don’t really game, but IF I was going to it would be on my Mac, not an iPhone.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Look at the cool things Nvidia is doing with the Apple Vision Pro (video) - 'I watched the interview twice. The second made NVidia’s development sound more like a Vision Pro converter box for Windows. Makes me wonder what kind of license (and fees) Apple got for helping Nvidia to make SpatialOS work on Windows. Of course the “Box” will sit between the host desktop and the 3D rendering device. So it’s a bolt on. And it will require a new class of Nvidia processor. It sounds cool what they are trying to accomplish, but as an intermediary device it will be expensive. Did I interpret this correctly?'
  • Rodney Avilla on Mark Gurman's Apple misses and hits (two lists) - 'I probably won’t for the same reason PED did not- because we both agree with you that it is a trivial question and not deserving of the time required to do so, though the results would be interesting.'
  • Steven Philips on Mark Gurman's Apple misses and hits (two lists) - 'I and Gregg and probably many others – especially light of the previous article on NVIDIA and AVP – hope they’re both totally wrong! 🙂 Let’s see what actually influences John Ternus.'
  • Shamwil Al-Amin on Look at the cool things Nvidia is doing with the Apple Vision Pro (video) - 'If anyone is a listener of Mac Break Weekly, Alex Lindsay formally of the show who was a big supporter of AVP is now an Apple employee. I believe he is in developer relations related to AVP.'
  • Alessandro Luethi on Mark Gurman: What no more net-cash-zero means for John Ternus - 'Don’t worry, John will tern us around!'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Morning, Gregg. “Frankly, I think “PE” and all variants of it should be put to death.” As always, we will have to agree to disagree. The inevitability of Apple’s future is written in its past. IMO. And reading those particular tea leaves has stood us in good stead up until now. I see no good reason to doubt them going forward. Also, I don’t at all disagree that “ TTM EPS increased as it did because the addition of last week’s quarterly EPS was substantially higher than the quarterly EPS it replaced.”.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is red - 'You are thinking this through too hard. TTM EPS increased as it did because the addition of last week’s quarterly EPS was substantially higher than the quarterly EPS it replaced. Valuation (just another descriptor for Investor Sentiment) in this case is a flawed metric. Investors buy the future but “PE” is based on trailing earnings. To get a meaningful numeric for Valuation (or whatever you want to call it) you must use forward EPS. But those are estimates from a couple dozen analysts, each with their own agenda, make them much more difficult (work) to use. By and large, people are lazy, so they use TTM. The problem then arises that TTM is a measure of past performance (the flaw in Share Price divided by TTM) not future performance. For me, the most important metric is PTM (Projected Twelve Months). The resultant “Valuation” number more accurately reflects Investor Sentiment. Frankly, I think “PE” and all variants of it should be put to death. Replace it with a chart reflecting consensus future EPS, and measure the slope. Is EPS for the next 12 months going up, or down, and by how much? This calculation takes into account diluted share count expansion or contraction. You no longer have to justify changes in share count caused by “buybacks”. Think of it this way: Current multiples reflect current values based on past performance. As an investor I don’t care about how a company performed in the past, I want to know how it’s going to perform in the future. Using that reasoning, the higher the multiple is, the higher Investor Sentiment for the future is. And it takes time for Investor Sentiment to adjust to the new reality. “Where’s the beef” comes to mind.'
  • Robert Stack on Mark Gurman's Apple misses and hits (two lists) - 'Then I suggest you do so and let us know the results…I did suggest asking ChatGPT for a second opinion. Do you routinely ask for four different medical opinions before you’ll move forward on something? Perhaps if it’s major, but for a question as trivial as this?'
  • Rodney Avilla on Mark Gurman's Apple misses and hits (two lists) - 'Mac Rumors has claimed working on the next generation AVP headset has stopped, although an update on the present headset may occur in 1-2 years. From what I can find, Mark Gurman has not been definitive recently on his AVP predictions for a next generation AVP or any more updates, maybe because he was so wrong the last time (2025) he predicted it’s demise.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Mark Gurman's Apple misses and hits (two lists) - 'Not sure if asking AI (Perplexity) is considered “real analysis”. Asking 3 or 4 AI apps, and then checking their accuracy, to me, would be real analysis.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'And that is why AAPL continually operates like a yo-yo. Although, since buybacks began, the yo-yo has moderated substantially, as the percentage of long term AAPL investors has decreased and the percentage of traders (as shown in the decreasing split-adjusted trading volumes over the last 12 years) has decreased.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Check out the P/E valuation at $276.50. Ergo, Thursday’s close of ~$271/share saw a valuation of ~35.5, and ADDING about $5 to the price dropped Apple’s valuation by about half a percent!! Sound contradictory? P/E is actually the price divided by the average of the last 4 quarter’s EPS. That went up a lot as of last week’s earning’s call, for two reasons: (1) Although averaging 4 quarters of EPS understates the actual change in value per share (by misrepresenting the momentum of increasing net profit), it was still an overall increase. (2) In a company that continually shrinks the stock count, the actual change in value per share (cash being given a value of close to zero by investors and traders), is likewise misrepresented but that just drives up EPS. The combined result, however, of increasing net income and reducing stock is still significant, even as it under-represents the actual amount of increased value per share. So in Apple’s case, the Price/Averaged Earnings Per Share drops precipitously, although not as precipitously as it would if the actual net income were divided by the actual share count. But in cases like this earnings call, that’s enough for the knee-jerk investors and traders to see a precipitously-dropping valuation, and begin to panic-sell – which, of course, in turn drops the now-locked-in P/E ratio to drop even further, and so forth. Which, from Apple’s POV and that of long term investors, is actually a positive, because it allows better bang per buck for AAPL purchases….'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Micron Technology sits atop the S&P 500 leaderboard as we approach the noon hour in New York. The shares are up 7.24% at $581.47. FedEx is off 9.15% this morning at $357.63 on fears of further disruption to the shipping/logistics market with the introduction of Amazon Supply Chain Solutions. UPS is also down over 9% at $97.42 on the news. Amazon is up $2.46 at $270.72. Apple is now off $3.29 or 1.17% at $276.85. Bernstein announced today an increase in its Apple price target to $350 from $340. Let’s see where afternoon trading takes shares prices…'
  • Robert Stack on Mark Gurman's Apple misses and hits (two lists) - 'Great idea for a post PED – thank you. It’s good to see some real analysis of Gurman’s hits and misses. Also a good example of a question that can be nicely addressed by Perplexity. Here’s a thought: If you asked ChatGPT the same question, would you get the same answers? Or even mostly the same answers? I’d try it myself, but I think its best if you would ask it exactly the same question you put to Perplexity.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Mark Gurman's Apple misses and hits (two lists) - 'Gurman posts far than the examples given here. But using these examples a pattern seems to emerge. When the claim is positive he seems to be correct. When the claim is negative he seems to be wrong. Hard to decisively characterize his posts according to my observation with such a limited data set, but there it is.'