Recent Comments

  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/1-12/5/25) - 'Index futures are definitely in the red as we move into the overnight hours. In Japan in early Monday trading the Nikkei 225 is off 2.02% and the TOPIX is off 1.23%. Nearing 12:30am in the east Apple is off overnight $2.02 at $276.83.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/1-12/5/25) - 'David: Thank you for the reply. Yes. I live in Southern California and if I do want to live at the beach it’s definitely a 7-figure (or maybe an 8-figure!) price for the home. So I’m not reading tea leaves or deciphering seat prints in the sand to reach my goals. I’m investing hard. I wouldn’t mind a spot in Ventura or Pismo or somewhere in between. But I digress… 
 I will say your expressed approach – reading the prints from sitting on the sand is actually more rational than much of the “fanspeak” I read in comments from people just wishing for the share price to move higher. But I digress again… Out of concern for the number of community members in the “RMD phase” of life, I hope the share price doesn’t spike just at the end of the year only to move lower at the beginning of the year (as it did this year) leaving behind little but a nasty RMD on IRAs loaded up with Apple shares. Our membership demographic does skew older than that of the general population. Is $290 possible by the end of the year? Sure. I’m looking for more. Wamsi Mohan at BofA maintains a $325 price target on the shares. I’m waiting for Apple to deliver on promises made at WWDC 2024. That was 17 months ago. As soon as Apple fulfills its long-delayed promises on the functionality of Siri I do expect the share price to significantly advance. Let’s see if that AI deal with Alphabet for content works out.'
  • David Wilson on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/1-12/5/25) - 'I am actually at the far end of the state from you, Robert. And it was too cold to be out at the beach here, too. I was just being silly about reading the sand. I meant to make it clearer that I don’t have any real basis for my prediction, just my general feeling that the company is anything but going downward. It’s going upward, and with it, I hope the stock as well.'
  • Ron Fredrick on Apple iPhones only for Israeli Army officers, no Androids - 'Mordechai Beizer said: “Actually PED, I think you are. Before making a backhanded comment panning the IDF try reading some of the commentary by foreign military officers on how the IDF has managed to maintain high ethical and moral standards in a war where their opponent does everything they can to cause civilian casualties.” **Ah, input from “foreign military officers”…I’m sure that would be completely unbiased. /s How about reading: https(colon)//www.atlanticcouncil(dot)org/blogs/menasource/coi-war-crimes-hamas-israel-october-7-gaza-hostages/ It was written in July of 2024 and targets both Hamas AND Israel. I included most of what they had to say about Hamas. What they had to say about Israel doesn’t suggest that the “IDF has managed to maintain high ethical and moral standards”. “The COI found that members of Hamas’s military wing, other Palestinian armed groups, and Palestinian civilians committed war crimes and violated international humanitarian and human rights law in their October 7, 2023, attack. Palestinian militants’ indiscriminate rocket fire toward populated places in Israel—killing eighteen civilians on October 7, 2023, and in following weeks—also constitutes the war crimes of murder and intentionally directing attacks on civilians. Palestinian fighters also committed the war crime of outrages upon personal dignity by desecrating corpses, including burning, mutilating, lacerating, decapitating, and undressing and subsequently exhibiting bodies. Finally, the COI found that militants committed the war crime of taking hostages—often combined with outrages upon personal dignity and inhumane treatment, including sexual and gender-based violence, assault, harassment, and intimidation—by abducting 252 people from Israel (approximately twenty security forces and the remainder civilians, including thirty-six children) and brought them to Gaza. As of May 21, half of the hostages were released or rescued, with the remainder in captivity, whether alive or dead.'
  • Mordechai Beizer on Apple iPhones only for Israeli Army officers, no Androids - 'Actually PED, I think you are. Before making a backhanded comment panning the IDF try reading some of the commentary by foreign military officers on how the IDF has managed to maintain high ethical and moral standards in a war where their opponent does everything they can to cause civilian casualties.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/1-12/5/25) - 'David: At the beach on November 30th? Where do you live? At 4:08pm PST in northern Los Angeles County it’s 60 degrees. It’s not what I consider “beach weather”. The high here was 66 degrees today.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/1-12/5/25) - 'Gregg: The world’s largest consumer facing enterprise is a component of the Fabulous Fifteen and not the Terrific Ten. It’s Walmart and its market cap is estimated at $0.881 trillion. The company is delisting from the NYSE in favor of Nasdaq because it considers itself a technology company. It commences trading on Nasdaq on December 9th. The company is expected to invest about $25 billion in capex this year. The world’s second largest consumer facing enterprise (next year possibly the #1 consumer-facing enterprise based on revenue), Amazon, is investing over $125 billion this year on capex and most of that for data centers, chips and related investments for both AWS and its consumer sales and services portals. I’ve done very well with WMT since initiating a position in 2017. Just last week and for the first time ever I initiated a position in AMZN. I expect AMZN’s big capex to continue for years and Walmart will likely be upping its capex spend as well as it expands and enhances its consumer-related online sales efforts and deployed AI throughout the enterprise. 

We’ve begun a new industrial revolution and while I suspect NVIDIA’s valuation has reached very high levels, I also expect capex deployments for AI and related services to continue to rise and that will include deployments for data centers, chips, content delivery capacity, etc. into the trillions of dollars over the next decade. This includes increases in Apple’s capex deployments as well.'
  • David Wilson on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/1-12/5/25) - 'What do we think AAPL’s price will be at closing on December 31? I want to say $290. But I would take more. Note that this is completely seat of the pants*, not scientific, not even back of the envelope, no math or charts. It’s just a feeling. — *After sitting and thinking about it at the beach, I got up and read the pattern that my jeans left in the sand. It seemed to say “$290.” Or maybe more.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple iPhones only for Israeli Army officers, no Androids - 'How come people expect a level of conduct from democracies they never expect from dictatorships? Hypocrisy comes to mind.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Apple iPhones only for Israeli Army officers, no Androids - '“ rationalizing here for killing civilians and starving the rest as a way of eliminating the problem of Hamas” I don’t believe anyone on this blog is rationalizing killing and starving, which by the way are methods used by Hamas when they confiscate food meant for Palestinians, use innocent Palestinians as cover for their munitions and Army, and actually kill innocent Palestinians for “not supporting them enough“. Hamas has declared genocide against Israel since their formation, and repeat it as often as they get the opportunity. One final thought. If Israel was trying to commit genocide, then they are the most inefficient country attempting so since the beginning of the human race.'
  • Ted Kluger on Apple iPhones only for Israeli Army officers, no Androids - 'Agreed, Ron and Steven, “kicking ass” and retribution should never include genocide.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/1-12/5/25) - 'Alphabet opened trading on Tuesday, September 2nd (the day after Labor Day) at $208.99 and ended November trading at $320.12, a rise of over 53% in three months. The way the share price is rising it looks like Alphabet is, “Movin’ on up to the east side to a deluxe apartment in the sky!”The company’s market cap is at $3.86 trillion and fast-approaching the $4 trillion marker. Let’s see what happens this week.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/1-12/5/25) - 'I enjoyed this video. Apple will have an absolutely amazing and “over the top” December quarter. That doesn’t mean it isn’t challenged in developing AI-related solutions that will stymie assaults on its existing barriers to competition (the company’s impressive economic moat). At this time I do think it’s smart for Apple to partner with Google for AI services while the company continues to develop it own solutions.'
  • Gregg Thurman on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/1-12/5/25) - 'And the only consumer facing company to gain more than Apple is Tesla. The remainder of those that have gained more than Apple are all chip makers. None of the AI centric firms have done as well, and for all the commentary about how rapidly AI is being adopted, only the chip makers are profiting. Those pursuing an AI strategy are nowhere near profitably amortizing their capex expenditures, have yet to demonstrate a monetization model that will.'
  • Ron Fredrick on Apple iPhones only for Israeli Army officers, no Androids - 'Steven Philips said: “There seems to be a lot of rationalizing here for killing civilians and starving the rest as a way of eliminating the problem of Hamas.” **I very much agree with you, Steven. I’m surprised some on 3.0 can consider starving, attacking and destroying families as “fighting Hamas”. Hamas ≠ entire Palestinian population. Whether it’s Hamas helping starve the people of Gaza or the settlers attacking Palestinians while they’re harvesting olives or dates, it’s not something that can be considered as an attack on Hamas. Do a simple search for, “settlers attacking Palestinians harvesting dates”…read the stories, watch the videos and then try to justify that this is truly “fighting Hamas”.'
  • Steven Philips on Apple iPhones only for Israeli Army officers, no Androids - 'There seems to be a lot of rationalizing here for killing civilians and starving the rest as a way of eliminating the problem of Hamas. What is it? A hundred (or more) of theirs for each one of ours? Sounds familiar!'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/1-12/5/25) - 'Alphabet has recently surpassed Microsoft in market cap to take possession of the #3 spot on the Terrific Ten ranking. According to Barron’s, since the debut of the Gemini 3 AI model on November 18th, Alphabet’s share price has rise 12% and the share price of Broadcom, which co-designs Alphabet’s TPU chips, is up 16%. The share price of NVIDIA over the same period is down 3.4%. 

There’s an article published by Barron’s dated November 28th on Google’s TPU chips and written by Adam Levine that’s worth the read. I sent out the link yesterday to members of the Other Stocks channel of the Apple 3.0 Slack group. The article’s available on Apple News.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/1-12/5/25) - 'What I find interesting on this 5-year perspective is how very closely in share price percentage gains Microsoft, Apple and Meta have tracked with each other and how fairly similar the percentage gains of Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Berkshire and Tesla are to each other over this period. The differences in performance are more pronounced over the 10-year period.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/1-12/5/25) - 'The ten-year share price performances of the Terrific Ten equities ranked by percentage gains over this time. NVIDIA (NVDA) up 21,518.32% Broadcom (AVGO) up 2,932.28% Tesla (TSLA) up 2,620.41% Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) up 1,152.19% Apple (AAPL) up 850.57% Microsoft (MSFT) up 791.00% Alphabet (GOOG) up 734.69% Amazon (AMZN) up 586.89% Meta Platforms (META) up 504.88% Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) 275.76% Over this same 10-year period the indexes have gained at the following rates:
 
NASDAQ Composite – up 353.15% S&P 500 – up 225.74% 
DJIA – up 166.75% Russell 2000 – up 107.65%'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/1-12/5/25) - 'The five-year share price performances of the Terrific Ten equities ranked by percentage gains over this time. NVIDIA (NVDA) up 1,221.88% Broadcom (AVGO) up 896.02% Alphabet (GOOG) up 256.06% Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) up 187.49% Microsoft (MSFT) up 127.56% Apple (AAPL) up 127.22% Meta Platforms (META) up 126.12% Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) up 123.39% Tesla (TSLA) up 120.69% Amazon (AMZN) up 44.85% Over this same 5-year period the major indexes have gained at the following rates: 
 NASDAQ Composite – up 89.12 % S&P 500 – up 87.01% 
DJIA – up 59.99%
 Russell 2000 – up 36.19%'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/1-12/5/25) - 'Entering this week’s trading, below is the market cap scoreboard of the Terrific Ten. These are the 10 largest enterprises ranked by this metric. NVIDIA (NVDA) $4.30 trillion Apple (AAPL) $4.12 trillion Alphabet (GOOG) $3.86 trillion Microsoft (MSFT) $3.66 trillion Amazon (AMZN) $2.49 trillion Broadcom (AVGO) $ 1.90 trillion Meta Platforms (META) $1.63 trillion Tesla (TSLA) $1.43 trillion Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) $1.19 trillion Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) $1.11 trillion'
  • Fred Stein on Apple iPhones only for Israeli Army officers, no Androids - 'Upvoted both of Gregg’s posts. Any discussion of the topic must include Iran, Hamas’ backer. Their proxy war in Yemen has cost 370,000 lives, many of them civilians. They have spent the entire first 1/4 of this century arming themselves and their proxies. And they supported Russia’s war against the Ukrainian people with their drones.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple iPhones only for Israeli Army officers, no Androids - 'War is ugly. People get hurt. Hamas is a dictatorial cancer with only one goal, a goal it can’t possibly achieve, the elimination of Israel. So it wages war on the unarmed. Those that joined the chorus to stop the IDF were de facto defenders of Hamas and its militant tactics.'
  • Gregg Thurman on This week's Apple trading strategies (12/1-12/5/25) - 'I executed my earlier decision to sell my JAN 26 $170/$175 Call Spreads and re-enter with higher Strike Call Spreads. I used the proceeds to buy more (30 vs 25) JAN 26 $180/$185 Call Spreads at a much lower price ($2.22 vs $2.59). Breakeven is $282.22. This after pulling $2000 off the table. I now have $3000 of my $5000 risk fund in play. If successful these contracts will yield $15,000 gross. Should Apple exceed December guidance and positively guide the March quarter I may increase my risk fund beyond the original $5000. I remain somewhat hesitant to do so until after WWDC in June. I want to see Apple’s Apple Intelligence, SIRI and Apple Vision Pro announcements before doing so. It’s too early to get aggressive.'
  • Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Apple iPhones only for Israeli Army officers, no Androids - '“Hamas declared war.” I’m not defending Hamas.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple iPhones only for Israeli Army officers, no Androids - ' It’s hard to muster up much admiration for the IDF these days, Why is that PED? Hamas declared war. IDF kicked their ass and in so doing eliminated Hamas leadership. Hamas would be non-existent had not the world’s political will disappeared. If the IDF had been allowed to continue the world would be a far better place. As it is, Hamas has regrouped and is retaking control over Gaza. So much for Trump’s “peace” plan. How long before Hamas resumes border raids and cross border shelling of Israel? Iran is already reopening arms smuggling routes to both Hamas and Hezbollah. We shouldn’t have stopped at bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities. Ukraine and the rest of the region would have thanked us.'
  • Darren DMW on Apple iPhones only for Israeli Army officers, no Androids - 'Given how deep Mossad has penetrated so many of its enemies via the target’s cell phones, it only makes sense that the reverse risk is real too. Post Oct 7 the security establishment has realised that previously the different branches weren’t co-ordinated enough. If anyone know’s cell phone vulnerabilities it would be the Mossad and a reasonable guess they are now advising the IDF. Non-military types should also listen to this advice.'
  • Darren DMW on Saturday Apple video: Steve Jobs explains employee stock options (1983) - 'Large parts of the western world seem quite happy teaching kids a whole lot of useless stuff. We do our kids no favours not teaching basic financial (let alone investing) skills before we tell them – “you’re an adult now, off you go”.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Davidson's Gil Luria: This should be Apple's best season in four years - 'Steven: It’s very easy and straight forward in my experience. I’m notified by Apple, upon the 12th payment on the current loan through Citizens, I’m eligible for a no-additional-costs upgrade to a new iPhone. I purchase the new iPhone through Apple’s iPhone upgrade portal after confirming eligibility. The new iPhone is shipped to my home. A return kit is shipped separately. When the new iPhone arrives I transfer the data from the old iPhone to new one, reset the device and return the old iPhone to Apple at no cost in the return packaging provided. This year about $3 was added to my monthly payment, now totaling $61.16 for my iPhone 17 Pro Max, because theft and loss insurance is obligatory on the AppleCare+ contract.'
  • David Emery on Don't pick on Apple Maps or Ads, Cupertino tells Brussels - 'A dealer/mechanic who can’t immediately diagnose a bad battery is just flat incompetent. If it’s a dealership, I’d raise that with the district zone manager.'