Recent Comments

  • David Emery on Apple is offering pubs $100Ks for permission to train Siri AI on their content - 'Was the original intent “Apple is willing to pay”? On a slightly related note, a friend sent me a link to a scientific journal arguing that scientific papers should be written for AI to digest, rather than for humans to read.'
  • Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Apple is offering pubs $100Ks for permission to train Siri AI on their content - '“Apple is will pay” needs fixing. Could be “Apple will pay” but that may not actually be correct either. Fixed.'
  • Steven Philips on Apple is offering pubs $100Ks for permission to train Siri AI on their content - 'I’ve seen that sequence several times now. I think there are actually young people who talk like that! Maybe the writer of the headline was spending too much time in those “pubs”! 🙂 (I was confused by that!)'
  • Daniel Epstein on Apple is offering pubs $100Ks for permission to train Siri AI on their content - '“Apple is will pay” needs fixing. Could be “Apple will pay” but that may not actually be correct either. Apple is negotiating paying fees. The number “$100ks” is also odd. Sounds like Apple realizes the underlying value of the intellectual property they want to use.'
  • David Emery on Apple users love microdramas - 'Thanks. So DEFINITELY I’m not a target audience for these…'
  • Bart Yee on Apple users love microdramas - 'Um, just remember, they may not be aimed at you as a male demographic.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple users love microdramas - 'Here’s one that showed up on my FB feed, watch at your leisure or peril: https://www.facebook.com/61591607752289/videos/1389554289947402/?fs=e&mibextid=wwXIfr&fs=e'
  • Bart Yee on Apple users love microdramas - 'From Gemini: “A microdrama is a very short video series made for smartphones. Each episode lasts one to three minutes, and a full season has 50 to 100 episodes. They are filmed vertically so you do not have to turn your phone sideways. Key Features of Microdramas •Fast-Paced Plots: Stories move very quickly with intense emotional twists. • Cliffhangers: Every single episode ends with a dramatic hook to make you watch the next one. • Melodramatic Tropes: Common themes include secret billionaires, revenge, and forbidden love. • Binge-Watching: Viewers often watch dozens of short episodes in one sitting. Where to Watch • Dedicated Apps: Platforms like ReelShort and DramaBox specialize in these vertical shows. • Social Media: Short clips and full series are frequently posted on TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts. Watch this short video to learn more about the structure and appeal of microdramas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BS4zrGA7siI Many have plots of secret abilities or superpowers hidden in very ordinary characters or protagonists, much like the dreams or desires of (some) everyday people, especially young adults who are unsure or unproven. Sort of like fantastical soap operas with sci-fi twists in some storylines, others being very normal social situations in kinda real life but with exaggerated emotions and pretty obvious villains and heroes.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple users love microdramas - 'Exactly! Again, so many Android fans claim Android is “winning” because Android “outsells” iPhones by volume, in 2025 about 1020M vs 247M iPhones. That’s factually correct, about 4:1. But of those 1020M, I estimate 80-110M (7.8% to 10.8%) are profitable premium >$600 models. That’s right, less than 11%, every year. That means every year, ~90% of all Androids sold are midrange <$400 and budget <$200 models, even <$100 (Transsion), most sold on affordability and budgetary limits in price sensitive regions like rural and urban China, India, LATAM, MEA, Africa, and Asia Pacific. Don’t get me wrong, obviously, there is a very big market for these smartphones (starters, and affordable replacements, allowing most to engage in modern digital communications) and Android excels at serving that market. Problem is, those models have razor thin to slim margins, and the revenues generated make little profits. This year, the budget ranges may get eliminated entirely because of the RAM costs either necessitating price increases or actually eliminating their sales because they are now money losing for all vendors. This also means those buyers of midrange and budget smartphones carefully watch their app expenditures and ongoing subscription costs. That is why even though both Google Play (97% free) and Apple App Stores (95% free) each host ~2.45M apps, and Google Play leads 74% to 26% app downloads, generated revenues flip with 67% of global app spending going to iOS and only 33% to Android. Certainly microdramas continue to reflect this spending disparity and why developers earn much much more with iOS than Android. Considering the general ease and consistency of Apple iOS versions and models to code vs for almost 1200 different Android models and 4-5 older versions of Android OS in use, developers do much better with iOS, as does Apple itself.'
  • Stephen Gordon on Apple users love microdramas - 'AI is the macrodrama.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Apple users love microdramas - 'A quick AI search shows that iPhone users buy 70% of the apps, and android users by 29% of the apps. So according to these figures, iPhone users buy 41% more apps than android users. So if these numbers hold up under strict analysis, then iPhone users, buy microdramas, 1% less than they buy other apps.'
  • Jim Fonda on Apple users love microdramas - 'I have a friend, Kris, who is an actress in these microdramas. She calls them “verticals” because they are filmed to be viewed vertically on a phone instead of horizontally the way traditional films are made. She considers them much lower class than traditional films, but she has gotten lots of work doing them. I only watched a couple of scenes that Kris had done. The names of the films were “That Missing Rockstar is My Husband” and “Hot For The Preacher”. In many cases, Kris is working with producers and directors from China, who speak poor English. This is for work that will be done in Los Angeles. Kris can consistently get roles where she plays the rich grandmother. For example, her grandson is in love and the couple wants to get married, but the rich grandmother is causing lots of problems. In the end, love wins out, and the couple gets happily married. In any case, it seems to be quite a growing genre that did not exist twenty years ago.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Too much of consumer’s AAPL buying decision is based on news of the day, and not enough is based on good old fashioned research.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple users love microdramas - 'Great question. How do you know the content you are watching is a microdrama? Is it similar to a chick flick?'
  • David Emery on Apple users love microdramas - 'WTF is a ‘microdrama’?'
  • Horace Dediu on Apple users love microdramas - 'iPhone users spend more money than Android users because they have more money than Android users. That is why Google pays Apple. For access to those users.'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Just before the close, Apple is down on low volume. My guess is it will meander around like this till the new iPhone comes out. Maybe about two weeks before then Mr. Market will start pumping up AAPL.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is red - 'The major indexes are in the green in afternoon trading. Apple continues to move lower. The shares are currently down $2.98 at $301.93. Cisco, which reports earnings after the market’s close today, is up $2.56 or 2.13% at $122.99. Apple supplier Corning is ahead $8.16 or 5.13% at $167.35. Vertiv, a major data center supplier, is up $11.30 or 4.01% at $293.11. On the S&P 500, Super Micro is leading the index with an 18.20% gain followed by Lumentum Holdings which is up 17.86% on strong results. We’ll see how the day finishes out…'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is red - 'In dental office, so quick comment: I LOVE that Apple gets to buy back shares at this price!!!'
  • David Emery on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'But it’s a seller’s market, so Samsung could tell then “pound sand, we’ll sell to others without that clause.” HOWEVER, it wouldn’t surprise me to learn (not that anyone would talk about it) that Apple’s contracts with Samsung and other suppliers already include similar clauses. How Apple contracts with long-term major suppliers (e.g. separate contracts, or umbrella contract with separate delivery agreements, or something else) is something I really can’t guess about.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Red Sox vs. Yankees on Apple Vision Pro - '”And with zero carbon footprint for the flights!” Now there’s a thought. If/when Apple Vision Pro is universally available for sports fans, I wonder how that might impact air travel, car rentals, hotel and restaurant bookings. 1%-2%? 3%?'
  • Gregg Thurman on Red Sox vs. Yankees on Apple Vision Pro - '”Looking forward to Yankees vs Red Sox.” It’s happening much, much slower than I thought it would, but there is movement towards universal Vision Pro sports viewing. I just hope I get to watch a 3D Jayhawks basketball game before I die. Currently I rarely watch anything (basketball) not based in Leavenworth, KS. With Vision Pro availability I might start watching SEC, ACC, Big10, SWC and Big East games. If they are all conference subscriptions I may have to pare down the list, or do pay per view. Either way I can see my sports viewing bill skyrocketing, and we haven’t even gotten to Formula One.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - '”It could well be that Samsung can leverage its internal advantages as both supplier and consumer, but that’s a case that so far is not proving out.” I’ll bet firms buying components from Samsung are including a MFN clause in their purchase agreements, guaranteeing best price.'
  • Kemble Widmer on Red Sox vs. Yankees on Apple Vision Pro - 'Now do NBA and NCAA Basketball.'
  • Ron Fredrick on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - '@ Robert Paul Leitao – Nicely stated, Robert. My wife and I also get a new iPhone every year. And I very much agree with what you said about Counterpoint Research. 🙂'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - '” Mostly I’ve been reacting to #2, and the lack of ‘deep thought’ among analysts” That summarizes my feelings pretty well.'
  • David Emery on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'We’re considering two separable issues: 1. what actually happens in The Real World ™ 2. what’s going on in the minds of ANALysts Mostly I’ve been reacting to #2, and the lack of ‘deep thought’ on memory prices.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'David: Among the factors involved in the price increases is concerns by the domestic component makers the current spike in demand may be cyclical (not structural) and they are quite hesitant to consider and green light large scale capex commitments to create more units. Prices for many goods are moving higher and supply constraints in various product markets have been a challenge in, through and after the pandemic period. Deglobalization is another factor putting pressure on prices. Whether it be smartphones, new cars, or many consumables, prices are likely to continue to rise. From a competitive standpoint, Apple has the resources to amply pay for what it wants and for what the company’s customers desire.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'Price increases are going to negatively impact consumers on the edge Fortunately for Apple that “edge” is higher than it is for Android consumers. Throw in that Apple has margins unmatched by its competitors, to offer finance programs such as very low cost leasing. There’s a reason so many acquire their Apple products through carrier plans…most buy on installments, not via cash. As a sample group we are not reflective of the majority of Apple consumers. I think Apple has looked at the cost of subsidized financing and made decisions that maximize unit sales, gross margins and revenue. I think our discussions here, on this subject, is akin to flogging a dead horse with incomplete data. Apple has already provided us with the only real data point we require: guidance. Guidance contains all the factors we have access to from the periphery and data we don’t have. Apple has guided up to 11% revenue growth YoY for the September quarter. That’s on top of last year’s reported 8% gain and continues the 3 quarter trend of double digit YoY growth. I’m not lamenting all the negative factors that may impact Apple’s revenue, I’m celebrating that group, having much better knowledge than I, are guiding so strongly, despite those factors.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Apple's 'chipflation' dilemma: Margins or market share? - 'More than a device maker, Apple is a customer relationship continuum. I’ve said this countless times. I acquire a new iPhone every year. My wife acquires a new iPhone every year. I have an iMac downstairs in the house and another iMac upstairs for late evening work. We have iPads all over the house. I wear an Apple Watch 24/7, swapping them out once a day. I provide Apple One for 6 members of the household at the bargain price of $39.95 per month. Nothing on this earth is likely to move me from my Apple product acquisition and use patterns, certainly not this note from Counterpoint Research. If Counterpoint would really like to know why Apple customers will continue to acquire iPhones, Macs, iPads and related accessories, the answers will come from the company’s customers, not spreadsheets suggesting component prices are moving higher for Apple and others.'