Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'You didn’t see me buying it.'
on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - 'Horace has referred to Apple’s approach to platform AI as an “Operating System for AI integration” and I think that’s a good way to think about it.'
on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - '” So we went back, and we rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground, rebuilt it from the ground up, on top of the incredible models which Amar just told us about.” That, and other statements, started me thinking (always a perilous thing) about the timelines to bring other capabilities inline. If I’m interpreting the aggregate of the statements above correctly, Apple replaced the foundation of Siri with an entirely new foundation, and delivered what we saw at WWDC about a year later. A year later. Remember that, it’s important. Thank you Bill, for pointing that out. System 7 couldn’t go any further. It required massive surgery, starting with a trash can, to fix historical MacOS. My firm did essentially the same thing with our only software product. It took 2 years to accomplish, but the advances after that came very fast, as we were no longer trying to change the color of the lipstick the pig was wearing. If the analogy is accurate, could this mean that advancements in Siri AI could come much faster than the press, WS and Investors have imagined? Considering what Apple accomplished in the year since it dismantled the original Siri, I’m wondering about the extent of the advances we will see by iPhone 18 announcement and release. I think Siri AI advances will come at an accelerated rate from current perceptions, and could become the dominant “gateway” to AI by iPhone 19. After that it will be game over. The only thing trailing in Apple’s AI effort is the media’s knowledge/perception of what Apple was doing.'
on IDC: Apple's iPhone will defy gravity in 2026 - 'While I agree on the “Unit market share” I don’t think Apple ever looks at it from that perspective, that is, market share is not the object; revenue, sales, and planting user engagement seeds is. The SE, and now “e” models have been Apple’s efforts to find the midrange offering that resonates with that price tiers’ market users and buyers, offering enough features, performance, tech, and most importantly, value, to entice new, crossover and conquest sales, in regional and emerging markets which are more price sensitive than developed countries. The iPhone 16e and 17e face a lot more direct Android competition, and many Android fans can rightly point to the 17e being “tech sheet” inferior on battery size (many Chinese OEM’s are claiming 5500 to 7500 mah sized batteries) rapid, high wattage charging, OLED/AMOLED higher refresh rate displays, some having multiple cameras, and of course cheaper prices (which may not be true this year), among other things. It’s not always clear to me that these outsized claims are actually true but price differential and not paying “the Apple Tax” is a reality. Apple can show the e uses the latest high performance A19 processor, more base RAM, and MagSafe, but only one general purpose camera. Real Intangibles are Apple’s proven long term support (6-7 years), physical Apple Stores support, superior long term resale value, integrated ecosystem. If Apple can hold prices, the 17e remains a competitive entry level model, along with discounted, refurbished, and used previous flagship models from the iPhone 11 through 16. The allure of a recognizable iPhone model exists, but having the least expensive although Apple model isn’t a flex for some. However, the e does provide a comparison for considering a self upsell to the base 17 which has proven a very superior seller in its price tier of $750-$1000 in almost every regional market it is in. IMO, Apple is aiming for value oriented and first time sales, sales for children and teens, and safe conquest sales, all as entry into the Apple ecosystem. If sales are good to decent, it will be doing its job, and “market share” will come. IMO, it’s absolute number of sales and revenue that interests Apple, not so much share, because Apple has always been a minority share in most markets due to price. Margins are whatever Apple deems acceptable for that model. And we all know that Apple trying to compete or offer in the lower midrange / budget realms of <$400 actually brings rejection from Apple users due to perceived “cheap” specs, materials, and execution, plus being even more out-specced and out-featured, even though most of the Android competition in that price range uses 2-4 year old and much less capable chipsets, displays, cameras and older RAM to save costs. Since margins are non-existent then and especially now, it’s not a market for Apple to bother with.'
on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'Off topic, but it’s absolutely insane that Space-X – a company with $19 billion in *revenue* – now has a market cap that is greater than Amazon ($717B 2025 revenue; $77.7B 2025 net income) or Microsoft ($282B 2025 revenue; $125B 2025 net income).'
on Indian farmers' wells contaminated by iPhone factory outflow - 'I love how it’s an “Apple” factory, when in fact it’s a Tata factory. Gotta get in the negative Apple spin, no matter what. That’s like saying that the huge contamination of aquifers and surface waters by a spreading tailings plume from the Exxon-controlled Kearl oilsands project in Alberta is the fault of Dow Chemical, because they are a downstream buyer of what comes out of the mine. Quick: name another tech company whose foreign suppliers haven’t broken environmental regulations? Obviously it’s a very bad thing to contaminate aquifers. But let’s not confuse who’s at fault. Or forget that regulatory capture is a massive problem everywhere in the world, including here in North America.'
on Citi sticks with its Apple Buy rating and $315 target - 'I’d like to point out that Options time premium for September and October expiries are increasing faster than historical rates. Sellers are wanting more for their contracts, and buyers are paying the higher prices. Longer range Investor Sentiment Is rising. I expect this to accelerate post July and October GUIDANCE. You’ll see it in AAPL’s multiples. Don’t be frightened by multiples exceeding 40. The formula is based entirely on trailing numbers.'
on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - 'Let’s hope it’s as important to Apple’s future as when they decided to start over with their Mac operating system and replaced the classic OS with OS X.'
on IDC: Apple's iPhone will defy gravity in 2026 - '”that puts Apple iPhone shipments to ~235M” Which just barely exceeds unit sales of the iPhone 6. Since then iPhone unit sales have been hovering around that volume. Revenue gains have come from price increases. I have no problem with that. It should be noted that, with the introduction of the “e” series of iPhones, Apple appears to be making a unit share grab, just as its AI strategy looms large on the horizon. I think iPhone 18 is going to be a breakout model, just as the iPhone 6 was.'
on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - 'Kudos to Fred and David for brining their wisdom to the group.'
on Citi sticks with its Apple Buy rating and $315 target - 'Citi isn’t known for being the brightest penny in the drawer. ” has yet to wow Wall Street” Oh I don’t know about that. In the four sessions (including today) since setting its post WWDC low, AAPL has risen ~$4.00 per day. WS has recognized its mistake and is correcting it, albeit cautiously. My guess is that AAPL will have recovered all of its WWDC losses, just in time for the start of its July earnings run up. Further, the introduction of iPhone 18 and iOS 18 will further solidify Apple’s winning AI strategy in WS’s eyes. January prints exceeding $375 are well within reach. To that end, using left over cash from my purchase of 300 July $305/$310 Call Spreads, I purchased 16 more such contracts. All this was done since the creation of my $42,500 “risk” fund in April. Frankly, I’m having fun building a small stake into a larger stake. It’s kind of like regaining my youth, but with much greater knowledge.'
on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - 'Thanks David for citing an old but important source of wisdom. A big shout out for your point about culture. Apple does the right thing, not afraid to face the truth, however tough. I’m sure this permeates from top to bottom. We’re invested in Apple’s culture, one of the many intangibles that never show up in the balance sheet. Likewise, goodwill is not carried in the balance, nor ‘brand’.'
on IDC: Apple's iPhone will defy gravity in 2026 - 'If Apple iPhones declines -5.2% (from 247.8M in 2025) per IDC, that puts Apple iPhone shipments to ~235M. If that comprises ~22% of a smaller overall pie, the overall pie shrinks to around 1.068M from 1.270M in 2025, with Android taking most of the brunt from 1.0222B down to <830M, a big drop. Most affected will be the Chinese OEM’s who serve the budget <$100 and <$200 price tiers. Price increases will push ASP’s up a bit purely as a price shift. Even with price increases, Memory configurations may even shrink depending on what the makers can get away with performance wise, hampering even midrange models for AI, unless they feel their users will pay for normal 12GB RAM.'
on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'AAPL started the AM in negative territory, but that got pretty quickly headed in the opposite direction. The knee-jerk options negativity is quickly being dispelled as more reasoned information filters out.'
on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - 'Fred Brooks in “The Mythical Man-Month” said “Plan to throw the first version away. You will do that anyway….” I do believe that Apple is a learning culture, unlike most of IT/software engineering. This is part of -taking the time- to get it right.'
on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - 'Maybe it’s Siri’s daughter, named after her mother. She’s takin’ over the business as her mom retires. She has a much more advanced degree than her mother ever had, and her mother knows she will go on to do great things.'
on Indian farmers' wells contaminated by iPhone factory outflow - 'Tata and the Taya family have a lot of influence and leverage as a big employer and industrial power in India but its business practices and “ethics” leave a lot to be desired. Tata bought their way into Apple’s Indian supply chain by buying the Pegatron factory and building this one to expand production. Apple is not going to be happy about this negative PR and industrial waste issue which should be fairly straightforward to address. However, like in pretty much all countries, industrial coexistence with surrounding farm or residential areas never ends well without good regulation and teeth in enforcement, see AI Datacenters developments and aftermath as the most current examples in US backyards.'
on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - 'It’s almost a crime to call it, Siri. Siri is dead.'
on 'We rebuilt Siri from the ground up, literally, tore it to the ground' - 'He deserves a Nobel Prize to get so much done in one year. This is another in a series of disruptive innovations from Apple, such as migrating to Intel and then migrating to A/M series. All the above show Apple’s courage and conviction to make big bets on their vision. And still so many say ‘incremental’. No!. These are monumental. Apple’s iPhone and Mac continue to take share after decades – the competition just can’t keep up. The same will happen with Apple’s Personal AI.'
on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'Barrons article on Citi analyst trying to will Apple stock price back above $300. Apple News link: https://apple.news/Apo8gTDTmQgOYnt5LcufP5g'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/15-6/19/26) - 'David, WashPo (and this article) is available in Apple News Subscriber Edition. here: https://apple.news/AxhcCCGY8SS6bHY5xCvwhQA'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/15-6/19/26) - 'John Gruber points out that, if EU ‘prosecutes’ both Apple and Google, EU users won’t get smartphone AI: https://daringfireball.net He points back to the Wash Post editorial (Robert, your link is still paywalled.)'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/15-6/19/26) - 'Hi, Bill. Whether it’s from AI super-stupidity or AI super-intelligence, the potential for damage from misapplied AI is real. Fortunately, Apple went back to the drawing board. Apple users will benefit because they did. Meanwhile, who else is following Apple’s lead? (crickets) Sadly, Apple will lose Europe because Apple refuses to stop improving their products, although the real losers will be Europe’s Apple users. But they’re in the minority, so who cares…. /s'
on Nate B. Jones' on Apple's AI strategy (revisited with index) - 'Rodney, Maybe I was hearing things wrong but I thought Nate Jones was saying that Apple wants to be the interface that decides what gets done on device and what goes to the server farm. In Nate’s model, who the customer is doesn’t matter. Apple wants to be the interface that decides where the work gets done. Now that may not be efficient enough for some customers who who need to go directly to the server farm. But if Nate is right about this, then Apple can be the interface for everybody else, especially those who aren’t sure where they need to be in this new world.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Wow. I’m just watching that SpaceX rocket take off! The shares finished the day at $192.50, up $31.55 or 19.60% from Friday’s closing price. Overnight the shares are currently trading up about $17.50 at $210 a share. That’s a long way from Friday’s initial IPO price of $135 per share! Apple closed up $5.29 per share at $296.42. The shares are currently up overnight $0.44 at $296.86.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/15-6/19/26) - 'I’d say the greater and more immediate threat is AI super-stupidity, rather than super-intelligence. There was a story a month or two ago about a company using one of the “leading” AI bots to strengthen security code in their proprietary B2C software interface that clients use for booking and tracking orders, and discovered within mere minutes that the bot had introduced coding changes that it had explicitly been directed to not make that resulted in the irreversible loss of all booking records for all clients using the software, going back months. The LLM proferrers are nowhere near super-intelligence, and will never get there if they’re hoping to do it with their LLMs.'
on Siri is dead. Long live Siri AI - 'I had to memorize that poem for a college English course. Thanks for the flashback.'
on Mark Gurman on Siri AI - 'Well, that analogy – and specifically what he’s presenting ChatGPT to be – is only accurate if in his world Final Cut Pro inserts AI-generated video clips you never filmed into your final edited film, without informing you, or inserts factually false video it’s made up into final cuts of documentaries… and everyone’s okay with that.'


