Steven Philips on In defense of the Apple iPhone Duo - 'The article obviously has ok sentiments, but a bit premature. The author can’t knowingly state “A few dozen had a manufacturing defect…” when the product has only been out for a week. Knowing Apple’s QC, I expect he’s correct. Still, it’s better to wait and see before making absolute statements. Unless he qualifies them like “according to Apple”.'
on Saturday Apple audio: Steve Jobs wows the 1983 Aspen design conference - 'I saw this quote in an ad for Range Rover. It seemed highly pertinent to clips about Apple, and the ongoing debate about Cook’s value to it. ”A Leader’s Job Isn’t Just To Set the Vision. It’s To Help People See Themselves In It.”'
on In defense of the Apple iPhone Duo - 'Have had mine for a week now and have had no issues. I’ve been using Pro Max versions for years now, and I don’t think I can go back to that form factor now. I still have my 17 Pro Max because when I was ordering the Duo, my concern was there would be times when I would want the cameras the Pro provides. So far, the cameras (such as they are) have been sufficient for my needs. Actually, over the summer, I got an Insta 360 and was using it when traveling and barely used the Pro, so who knows if I’ll actually keep the Pro. Bottom line is I really love the Duo. I love it in both the folded and unfolded form. The Pro now seems actually weird to pick up and feels comically long. Oh, and I understand I’m using a foldable, so I treat it with the care such a device demands. Will my mind change in the future? Maybe. Maybe as the product ages, I’ll see that it can’t hold up as well as the candy bar design. But I’m certainly not going to go out of my way to try and break it.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'It’s interesting (to me) to consider which of those stocks have businesses and management ready to handle a significant downturn. I’m no fan of Microsoft, but that’s the only one of those that I’d consider ready to weather a tech market crash. Google could muddle through. Oracle has been around long enough, but that doesn’t mean their management is up to surviving.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - '”Meanwhile, Apple closed down $4.28 or 1.23%” Today’s trading among the AI darlings went like this today: AMZN -3.44% GOOG -4.10% META -9.53% MSFT -8.23% NVDA -9.72% ORCL -8.89% The NAZ 100 fell 2.86%. Today’s market collapse was clearly an AI implosion. Firms like AMZN, MSFT and GOOG, with real Company’s behind them will weather this storm. AAPL is not an AI play in the sense most are. It does not have data exposure. What it does have is a growing recognition of its on-device, localized AI strategy, with a very wide (insurmountable?) moat. Those with a need for localized AI are going to be attracted to Apple’s networked Mac Mini and Mac Studio, all others will be attracted to Apple Intelligence. Did I mention that prices for tokens are falling, just when they need to firm up.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Where NVDA was financing and pulling AI stocks upward in the past, my gut is telling me (as it has been for a while) that those same firms are going to pull NVDA down with them. 2027 isn’t going to be kind to the AI sector, NVDA included. Anybody accepting bets when the AI efforts of the following are going to collapse: META, ORCL, Anthropic, ChatGPT, TSLA? Get rid of Zuckerberg, Altman, Amodei and Musk and you may have a chance with one of them.'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'The clearest sign of market confidence on all the AI hyperscaling and compute leasing: spiking CDS prices! LOL'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Thanks for the context on the market’s “wisdom”, Joe, and pointing to Tesla for a P/E that is disconnected from anything to do with financial and growth reality! Compared to that, Apple’s P/E is rock solid and ultra-conservative!'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'I’m looking through the carnage on the Street from today’s pull down in prices. Meanwhile, Apple closed down $4.28 or 1.23% today to finish the week at $344.63. Apple remains up year-to-date 26.77% and up 27.01% over the most recent six months. The shares are off 0.89% over the past five days.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Bill, it sounds like you are wired a lot like me. I consistently time my retreats to safety well – but I have never once bought back in at a good time. Consequently, I am standing pat in the face of what feels like a high probability of being on the brink of a crash… oh well hopefully I live long enough to profit from the recovery!'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Yikes! I blame it on this 80-year-old brain…. Thanks, Charles! And apologies, Horace!'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'With all due respect to Horace…it’s Dediu, not Deidu.'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'One interesting point about the AI bubble — credit fault swaps have increased a lot for all the main players, suggesting lots of people are worried about an inability to pay back debt, so they are hedging against that. Meanwhile, Apple’s CDS are 5-10 x times cheaper, signifying that the markets do not think Apple will have as hard a time over the next 5 years.'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Upvoted for your shout out re unified memory. Apple’s silicon makes the memory in their device MORE valuable relative to others. Together with Apple’s upgrade financing and carrier financing, memory upgrades cost dimes/day.'
on Apple secretly buys an agent - 'So now even Apple has a secret agent. 🙂 Might help with their trade secrets trial. 🙂'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Regarding cash flow, Horace Deidu made this pithy comment on Nota Bene yesterday: “The P/E ratio tell another story: As cash flow evaporates and goes into reverse, Google is in the low teens, Microsoft is at 29 while Apple, whose cash flow is accelerating, is at 40. This is a perfect reversal of a decade ago.” It’s not a coincidence that earlier in the year Apple finally abandoned its goal to reach net zero cash…. Oodles of dry powder, as far as the eye can see!'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Morning, Jonny. Upvoted. My 2 cent’s worth: AI is here to stay, just like unified memory, because it solves a problem. But a definite ROI will also go to the “merchants” that, as during the California Gold Rush, supply the equipment to mine that “gold”. Bottom line: If the price of pickaxe handles goes up, pickaxes will still get sold. Just as importantly, with the advent of open (source) weighted models, the “bet” on traditional “gold” mining just got undercut by the sudden availability of something better than pickaxes.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Moments like these make or break your investments’ progress. Good luck!'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Morning, Bill. upvoted. That said: It’s like grades: Once you get in the track of studying to the point of getting A’s, it’s easier to maintain A’s Apple’s valuation WILL drop several percent overnight due to both YOY net income and buybacks. That creates “daylight” for valuation to grow to 40+ yet again. Apple is not a Tesla, which speculation keeps way over its skis. It’s long distance vs short sprint, or tortoise vs hare. It’s taken 13 years of buybacks and net profit growth for Apple to literally earn the respect it’s now getting. Apple has done its homework, and thus earned its present grade. And just like good grades, once you’ve put in the effort to get there, it’s easier to stay there – and no harder to climb even higher!'
on BofA: Record (and lenient) carrier trade-ins are a tailwind for Apple - 'They are buying the phones at a discounted rate from Apple and reselling them at full price. They recoup that $$$ easily over the cost of the contract.'
on Apple secretly buys an agent - '”How is it that we just now learned of this?” I read about yesterday, I think, on Apple News.'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'I think so, but it’s still very high, and I’d say more priced for growth that Apple hasn’t demonstrated in a very long time than based on today’s reality. That said, it’s a far better investment than most of the other tech companies, and all of the ones heavily into LLM-based AI, so it may benefit from a flight to safety. To be determined! That said, my desire to sleep at night these days is satisfied more by carrying more cash than it is by a fear of missing out on short-term stock increases.'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - '@Bill Presumably as higher revenue is announced Monday then the P/E will come down a little.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Upvoted Bill. I think you have chosen wisely. I have also moved some of my investments to cash for the reasons you have stated but not as boldly as you. I share your fear of things not going well at the midterms. I only hope I am wrong.'
on Evercore expects Apple to beat its conservative guidance - 'Like you, I’ll be happy to be wrong with my decision to take profits on AAPL. The high P/E is going to be tough to maintain, especially if the rest of tech co’s that are more exposed to AI hyperscaling and circular financing start to landslide in a way that sweeps everything down. It seems like most investors, investment managers, investor analysts, and political leaders are completely oblivious to the financial house of cards that is the LLM-based AI boom. So if it starts to falter, there will be a lot of shock and panic, and margin calls or options losses that drive even more liquidizing of non-AI holdings for a lot of people. I see a bloodbath coming. I hope I’m wrong… but hope and a couple of dollars will buy me a cup of coffee.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'I”m now back to ~50% cash, having sold off a bunch of everything, including ~1/3rd of my AAPL. I was at ~25% cash until this week, but new revelations out this week about the even more insane costs and losses associated with datacentre hyperscaling and AI compute leasing has me thinking the AI reckoning is beginning. Or maybe better “wreckoning”. And then of course there’s the midterms on Tuesday and what’s going to happen after that. I don’t see things going well, one way or the other. Apple’s at its ATH, so I’m happy taking some profits. If it goes up after reporting on Monday, I’m fine not catching all of it. My nervousness and markets and the scale of denial about AI financials and what Trump will do over the next two years are now at the point they were in the December before the pandemic. But this time I’m thinking I may sit substantially on the sidelines for a lot longer.'


