Recent Comments

  • Joseph Bland on The bull case for Apple - 'Hi, Kirk. My opinion: Apple cannot be pigeonholed, and trying to force a valuation threshold on it just won’t work. I’ve seen this coming. No surprise it’s finally arriving. I’ve said at length why I think this, so I’ll leave it at that. Nice seeing you at the dinner!'
  • Joseph Bland on China Renaissance raises its Apple target $185 to $425 - 'Apple is, by definition, a plodder. But OMM (Oh My Maker) does it know the right direction to plod! That’s important when you have as much mass and thus momentum as Apple. Key proof: It found itself plodding in the wrong direction with Smart Siri, and spent two years changing course. It was a rare glimpse behind the curtain to see how the sausage is made Apple yet again is approaching a 40+ P/E at the same time we see its competition stumbling.There’s a reason for that, and the reason is all part of the Apple Way, which is focused like a laser on giving its customers the very best it can, and NOT ripping them off. But it takes time to build out a system dedicated to premium quality. Android, of course, took the short cut, and built, not for quality, but for quantity. And now that decision is catching up with them, and with all the short-cutters and get-rich-quick, screw-the-customer bunch. Horace is right; Apple’s a consumer company, and one of the few still proudly standing. The tortoise and the hare, indeed….'
  • Kirk Burgess on The bull case for Apple - 'I don’t want to be a debbie downer, but Apple stock price seems extremely bubbly right now. I don’t see any way the underlying fundamentals support the current valuation. If I had to bet, I think the best case scenario is that Apple market cap stays around where it is +/- 10% for the next 12-24 months. Downside worst case scenario is a 50% haircut. Risk reward equation seems to be much more weighted to the downside. Just my opinion. Would love to be wrong, but I really struggle to see how earnings growth supports share price growth much beyond a $5.2 Trillion market cap, especially now that share buybacks have negligible impact.'
  • Raj Pandey on Premarket: Apple is red - 'You have it the other way around. NVDA has a very high volume today and is up since the market opened not because people want out but rather they are buying into NVDA with the hope that the CEO’s issue might die down or get resolved and that this is a good (re)entry point. IMO, this idea could backfire if the spy lady lets slip anything perceived as negative.'
  • Bill Donahue on Premarket: Apple is red - 'It’s not inflation that’s the problem, when it comes to the AI hyerpscalers and “neocloud” companies like Coreweave. It’s the bond market and these companies’ skyrocketing debt and spiking credit default swap yields that are the problem. A few weeks ago, the yield to maturity on Coreweave’s 9.75% bond due in 2031 was 15.78%.'
  • David Wilson on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Yes, it’s noise, as I know good ship AAPL is firing on all cylinders. It’s just interesting. Now, 3 hours in, Nvidia has a volume greater than 10X that of AAPL for the day. Is it because people want out of NVDA? I’m just curious.'
  • Ben Gepp on Premarket: Apple is red - '…or that DELL and MU are up nearly 13% when AAPL is up less than 2%…? Ignore the noise and sit tight, I guess? Just seems so volatile in the AI, memory space. Feels somewhat ominous (not for AAPL).'
  • Gregg Thurman on The bull case for Apple - 'Yesterday my iPad gave me an alert that there was water within and strongly “suggested” that I insure it wasn’t plugged in, and not use it for several hours. My iPad has never seen water. I did as instructed nevertheless. That was >12 hours ago. During that period I used my iPhone for those things I normally used my iPad for. Apps that previously worked just fine, no longer worked. I tried reloading them and it just got worse. Navigation was horrific. This was on my iPhone. This morning I powered up my iPad and everything came up just fine. I’m now an hour+ into using it, and no alerts. Much of what I have on my iPad, I have on my iPhone. So I went back to my iPhone. Now apps that had not worked properly during the previous 12+ hours were working properly. Three hours after restarting my iPad (and iPhone) and still no water alerts. “The key near term catalyst remains whether Apple can keep delivering sticky AI features without margin strain.” I would definitely add to that by saying “delivering apps that work as intended”. This was not something I would want to experience again. I came close to throwing my iPhone as hard as I could. Thankfully sleep overcame that urge.'
  • David Emery on The bull case for Apple - 'Yeah, but doing so would be like cutting off your nose to spite your face… Apple is explicitly NOT dependent on such financial loops to pay for its components. “The best customers pay cash.”'
  • Bill Fouche on The bull case for Apple - 'TSMC – Apple’s vital source of its most advanced semiconductor chips – has plans to invest $500,000,000 in each of OpenAI and Anthropic. The precise nature of this arrangement is unclear to me. But since the latter companies are in great need of revenue to prepare for when the music stops, it would not be surprising if TSMC has decided to play Nvidia’s game of advancing the funds its cash-starved customers need if they are to buy its chips. The concern for Apple is that TSMC will prioritize its scarce foundry capacity for the businesses which it partly owns, and that Apple will lose out or have to pay more to get its chips manufactured. Is this concern a plausible one?'
  • Roger Schutte on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'Probably because it’s a WordPress site. It does take Apple Card, though.'
  • David Wilson on Premarket: Apple is red - 'What does it mean when, 40 minutes into the trading day, Nvidia volume is already at 79 million shares traded, and AAPL and others are at a significantly lower volume of 10 million?'
  • Raj Pandey on Premarket: Apple is red - 'AAPL is a dollar away from a new intraday ATH as I write this. Off-topic but I got a call from Schwab PCS yesterday asking if I’m interested in getting a priority allotment of Anthropic shares. I said no.'
  • Jonny T on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'Why doesn’t Asymco take ApplePay I wonder?'
  • Steven Philips on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'It was the Russians! 🙂'
  • Bill Donahue on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'I’d say it’s not only an issue of AI continues vs AI fails. As memory prices go up, the cost of chip-based hardware will go up along with the cost of use of AI. And if everyone has to pay more for the computing hardware because the hyperscalers are hoovering up all the chips, all those people paying more for computing hardware and literally everything else that runs on a chip will be willing to pay less for discretionary use of AI. The hyperscalers are seeming more and more like plagues of locusts that are eating themselves out of resources, thereby causing their own end.'
  • David Emery on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'What would you do with that fully populated Mac Studio? I’m presuming you have some AI stuff in mind…'
  • Joseph Bland on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'Hi, Bart. Jerry has me on his Messages list, almost certainly because he asked and was invited to the West Coast Apple 3.0 get-together earlier this year. He is VERY MUCH still a long term Apple investor, and I’m sure his daughter is as well. With as many doubles in value as Apple has already produced, once you hit your first $1 M, sticking with the stock becomes pretty much a no-brainer. It’s a shame Tommo never seemed to grok in fullness that salient fact, but there are quite a few ex-Apple employees that have, over time, figured that out, much to their joy, and some of them joined Jerry Doyle at that very joyful get-together this year. But who knows; maybe it has finally sunk in with Tommo, and some day he’ll return to the fold. I hope so.'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'CoreWeave and Tesla also had small spikes up at 10:00AM(PST). Curiously, DJT had a sharp spike down at 10:00AM(PST). Whatever happened involved multiple stocks. Bots gone wild?'
  • Joseph Bland on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'Actually, Fred, although I upvoted you, I think Horace’s take (see my comment to him above) is even better: Apple is the greatest consumer company on Earth. By a lot!'
  • Bart Yee on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'Speaking of analysts, has anyone checked up on tommo_uk? Is he ok and still alive and kicking? In 1H of 2026 he was prolifically posting and publishing his blog, pontificating (maybe with ChatGTP help) his views on AI and the continued missteps and sleight of hand that Apple was foisting on the market and investors, in his view. But his last blog entry was end of June, then hard stop, radio silence, and nothing since. Is he physically ok, hopefully nothing health wise has befallen him, never wished any ill will towards him. Or maybe he took a sabbatical break and is enjoying his Apple and elsewhere funded wealth somewhere nice, warm, and cozy with a good solid internet connection and a fast but older MacBook to keep him company and connected? Can anyone shed light about what’s going on with him? I’d say the same for our lady members who seem to have gone silent or perhaps even left? I know our LSU correspondent Jerry Doyle is still lurking about and showed recently, hope his and his daughter are enjoying recent ATH’s as we are, while the #24 6-3 Tigers are trying to climb the SEC ladder (I’ll note my UCLA Bruins are astounding everyone including me at 9-0, #1 in the Big Ten, and #4 overall, plus USC has resurrected its playoff hopes at 7-2 and #15). I just miss many of the other members posting their thoughts occasionally.'
  • Joseph Bland on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'Good point, Bart, and forewarned should be forearmed. So the next question is – if even more of the same is in store, then how will that impact Apple? IMO, folks are still going to need their computers, after all is said and done. Also, right now, the impact on Apple’s financials is essentially – Apple is thriving. Why? Because when you still have to buy something, you look for the best bargain. And guess what: Cheaply made junk isn’t actually a bargain. Every computer Apple can make is going to get sold, regardless, for the simple reason that they give the user the best bang per buck out there. I admit having sticker shock at the price of a fully loaded 512 GB Mac Studio: .25/mo.per month for 12 mo.months at 0% APR – $29,799.00 total of payments But what if the price goes up? Am I prepared to shell out even more? Actually, what I really want is a 1,024 GB Mac Studio – and they don’t even make it! So I guess the answer is – Yikes!! I literally can’t decide! I seriously doubt that a 1 MB Studiio would cost double that of a 512 GB Studio, and it seems like the next logical step for Apple…. But you see my point; at some point in time, you either stay stuck or you jump on the Apple Carousel. It has ever been thus, and so no surprise if it still is.'
  • Joseph Bland on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'BTW, Horace, I’ve been meaning to complement you on your article “The Last Consumer Company” – https://asymco.com/2026/11/01/the-last-consumer-company/ I know it’s behind a paywall, but it’s a prime example of why Asymco One is worth every dollar! Here’s how it starts: “Apple captures 50% of consumer revenue of the top half of the S&P 500. Market offers no other exposure to consumers. When asked what they do, Apple says they create great products. Products that are designed to be useful and easy to use. The “user” is usually expected to also be the “buyer”. It is therefore almost tautological to say that Apple is a consumer company. Yes, there are businesses and other organizations buying Apple products, but they are not the target buyers. There is no “B2B” division. There are no “Enterprise” products. The “Pro” products are useful to professionals as well as consumers and they work for organizations but the Pro products are not designed to satisfy a purchasing manager. They are designed to be requested by if not purchased by the end user. When looking at other large companies today, I noted that most of them are focused on selling to institutions rather than consumers. I seem to remember that there were more consumer companies among the largest market caps than what I see present today.” … (It’s a wonderful perspective of Apple that literally needs to see the light of day in all its detail. So if you aren’t short on spending cash (and if we can afford it many others here can!), then acquiring an Asymco One membership is kind of a no-brainer, IMO.)'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'IMO, the tech market has now entered into an oscillating and schizophrenic thinking phase, fairly typical of boom-bust cycles. On one hand, we have those fund managers who have made big money in the AI boom, but they now see cracks forming. Their instinct is to either ride it out, or get out while the getting and profits are still highest. On the other hand are the managers who have already fled (to the tune of $5T value already shed) who have booked their profits, now have dry powder on the sidelines, and are looking for preset (AI driven or forecast?) algorithmic re-entry points if the market were to decline sharply. Hence the back and forth, Yo-Yo gyrations we have been getting – huge red day downdrafts, followed by short rapid green buying, both created by opposing views of whether AI is collapsing or still very much alive. This activity may dominate the market for the next 6-12-18 months as AI ambitions, financing, and geopolitical situations play out. For many, we will ride with safer, saner investments like AAPL, or like Gregg, move to Gold and other more stable havens for now. For others, they will sit long in cash (Berkshire) will the bottom appears and then strike. However, many fund managers will believe they have, maybe now more than ever, better knowledge, skill and AI intuition to help them navigate (and beat) this type of turbulent market, all to catch a falling knife without getting too bloody. Their hubris in believing they are smarter than the next Fund Manager is what will get them all in deeper trouble. Quotes on bulls, bears and pigs applies here, again, as history yet again repeats itself on human emotional responses in the stock market.'
  • David Emery on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'I’m much more inclined to #2. Costs for memory will hit megascalers REALLY hard, and at some point the pricing will stretch them beyond their ‘elasticity’…'
  • Fred Stein on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'Ternus’ “greatest company on earth” comment sounds even more compelling.'
  • Bart Yee on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'I just sent this to Phil: Fortune Memory chip CEO warns 2027 shortage will be so bad that ‘even money can’t buy goods’ Apple angle: this small Taiwanese chip maker discussed memory pricing patterns and market conditions and gave its forecast. DRAM prices have now increased up to 5x since a year ago, more supply may be coming in slowly in Q2 2027 but demand and long term contract payments by AI companies is outpacing Apple, smartphone and PC makers, meaning pricing power is still supporting an upward trend. They don’t believe sufficient supply or price leveling or any downward pressure will occur until mid-2028, others predict 2030. In fact, they have supply commitments they can’t fill so have to go to the spot market to get any additional DRAM at 30-50% higher prices. That is crazy, to overcommit and then make up their own supply gap in the spot market? My comment: the only way forward for any relief, aside from what new 2028 capacity from Micron is coming, would be two things: 1) Democratic Congress enacts investigations into the AI financing and/or Datacenter building contracts to determine if they are legal or shady, and maybe creates a temporary moratorium. The AI companies may actually be ok since it gives them an excuse to slow the hell down on their spending. 2) because of the NVDA scandal, inflationary concerns, another Prime rate increase, and potentially poor showings for Anthropic and OpenAI IPO’s, the financing for datacenters begins to crumble, slow, or dry up, and the AI Bubble begins to collapse in fits and starts, earlier than thought. That is the only way to reduce AI memory demand and force memory companies to cut prices on HBM, consider pivoting to still high demand DRAM, and reevaluate long term contracts if some AI companies might default on their HBM contracts if the bubble was to really deflate badly. It isn’t going to look pretty either way. https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/memory-chip-ceo-warns-2027-163159125.html'
  • David Emery on Daniel Ives is betting that Jensen Huang keeps his job - 'The Macalope makes some prescient observations about AI CEOs: https://www.macworld.com/article/3280487/ai-has-a-tough-week.html'
  • Daniel Epstein on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Apple Stock continues to have a fairly large daily range. Big numbers if you are a long time shareholder. Today’s high 353.82. Today’s Open Price 351.35 Today’s low 346.46 7.36 high to low. Currently 348.36 at 2:27 EST. Each dollar of movement is about 14.53 Billion of market cap change. (Outstanding shares 14.53 Billion x 1) So a range of 7 dollars is about 101.71 Billion dollars in market cap movement. Almost as much as 4th Quarter’s revenue. And this is just one day of trading. With the price of the stock at these levels it is only a few %. And not much company specific news to look at.'
  • Joseph Bland on Who's the most valuable company in the land, by far? - 'BTW, AAPL is now up 132% over 5 years and 1,185% over 10 years. Just sayin’…. (How many more doubles are left in the stock? 3? 5? 10??….)'