Recent Comments

  • Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/25-5/29/26) - 'We have a fantastic few weeks ahead for investors! I’m taking a break this week in my ranking of the performances of the Terrific 10. I’m posting today a listing of the “Tremendous 25” ranked by market cap. As the markets continue to move to new highs and the trillions in capex dollars deployed for AI move well beyond the semi manufacturers, many of these names will profit greatly over the next several years either through direct revenue growth as AI beneficiaries or indirectly through national and related global economic growth. NVIDIA $5.22 trillion Alphabet $4.64 trillion Apple $4.54 trillion Microsoft $3.11 trillion Amazon $2.86 trillion Broadcom $1.96 trilion Taiwan Semi $1.86 trillion Tesla $1.60 trillion Meta Platforms $1.55 trillion Berkshire Hathaway $1.05 trillion Walmart $0.96 trillion Eli Lilly $0.950 trillion Micron Technology $0.848 trillion JPMorgan Chase $0.821 trillion Advanced Micro $0.762 trillion Exxon Mobil $0.642 trillion ASML Holding $0.629 trillion Visa $0.620 trillion Intel $0.602 trillion Johnson & Johnson $0.564 trillion Oracle $0.552 trillion Cisco Systems $0.475 trillion Costco $0.456 trillion Mastercard $0.441 trillion Caterpillar $0.405 trillion'
  • Steven Philips on Postcard from Milna - 'Is that like living in an apartment while your house is being built? 🙂'
  • Stephen Gordon on Postcard from Milna - 'Dubrovnik was the pivotal location for King’s Landing in Game of Thrones, and I can see why they chose that region.'
  • Roger Schutte on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/25-5/29/26) - 'Walmart.com had them for immediate shipment a week ago, too.'
  • Gregg Thurman on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/25-5/29/26) - 'It would if Apple accepted an Amazon order (1000’s of units) for delivery by Tuesday.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Postcard from Milna - 'Great photos and a history lesson to boot. Life just doesn’t get any better.'
  • Bart Yee on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/25-5/29/26) - 'Here’s a remarkable stat about the Chinese Premium smartphone segment that was published back in mid-January 18, 2026 by noted Android leaker, smartphone market observer and Chinese OEM maker advocate, Ice Universe on X: https://x.com/universeice/status/2013069007570829651?s=46&t=oxd_m7t-OId5inFp8E4nbQ BREAKING ! Flagship smartphone sales in the Chinese market from launch through Week 2 of 2026 show that the iPhone 17 series surpassed 17 million units, an overwhelming lead that exceeds the combined sales of all other brands. High-End Flagship Sales (graph) at x com/universeice/status/ 2013069007570829651?s=46&t=oxd_m7t-OId5inFp8E4nbQ Vendor model series Apple iPhone 17’s 17.27M Xiaomi 17 incl. Ultra 3.08M Huawei Mate 80 2.06M Vivo X300 1.16M Oppo Find X9 0.91M Top 4 Chinese OEM 7.21M That time frame is ~ 3rd week in Sept. thru 2nd week in January, about 18 weeks. The iPhone Air was delayed about 3-4 weeks due to Chinese dual eSIM regulatory approval. Here’s how one India tech media site article told it: gadgets beebom.com/news /apple-iphone-17-series-china-sales-report Thanks to the iPhone 17 Series, Apple’s China Dominance Continues The Cupertino brand has reportedly sold more than 17 million iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max units in the last four months by Siddhartha Samaddar Published on Jan 24, 2026 Summary • iPhone 17 series has reportedly sold 17.27 million units in China since September 2025. • It has managed to surpass the Xiaomi 17 series by a staggering 14.19 million units in sale. • Huawei Mate 80 series, Vivo X300 lineup and Oppo Find X9 series has emerged as the third, fourth and fifth contenders. iPhone sales in China are in a league of their own “As per sales data shared by tipster Ice Universe on X, Apple has managed to sell approximately 17.27 million units of the iPhone 17 series in China. It includes the standard iPhone 17, the iPhone 17 Pro and the iPhone 17 Pro Max. Moreover, this sales figure only reflects the last four months’ unit sales data, since the lineup went official in September 2025. For context, the Xiaomi 17 series, which managed to emerge as the second best-selling lineup, could clock only 3.08 million sales. This is a substantial 14.19 million unit sales volume gap. As for the third, fourth and fifth positions, they have been secured by the Huawei Mate 80 series, Vivo’s X300 lineup and the Oppo Find X9 series phones, respectively. Interestingly, Apple has managed to sell 10.06 million units more than all of the top Chinese Android smartphone brands combined, making the latest Apple iPhones sheer dominators in the market. This comes as a huge surprise especially considering the Chinese government’s pro-Chinese brand subsidisation model. For those unaware, the CCP gives residents a 15% flat refund for products that are priced under 6,000 Chinese yuan (approximately Rs 79,100). This usually doesn’t apply to Apple phones, especially the Pro models since they start in China from 8,999 Chinese yuan (approximately Rs 1,20,000). Moreover, even when the iPhone 17 does meet the cut-off rate at 5,999 Chinese yuan, the CCP doesn’t allow the subsidy policy to hold binding. Hence, even when there is ample reasons for smartphone owners in China to opt for indigenous brands, they are primarily flocking towards Apple. This is a huge success for Apple since China has always been one of the most competitive and hard to penetrate market for the brand. All in all, looks like the Cupertino brand’s upgrades are finally paying off. With rock-solid hardware, software and solid pricing, iPhone users in China are on an exponential rise.” That’s 17.27M vs 7.21M in China, Chinese OEM’s strongest market, about 2.5x more sales. No wonder Apple China revenues shot up 33% in 1HFY2026. Fairly remarkable that Chinese Apple users remain loyal and Chinese Android or new users would choose the newest iPhones. The fast followers have reacted by adding large camera plateaus, orange colored models, and copying Apple iOS features, now even adding Liquid Glass elements. Full March quarter numbers were probably similar as would June Quarter but I have not been able to find any hard data from Ice Universe or anyone else since these data points. IMO, Apple’s iPhone 17 series (and previous) have stronger sales legs, and don’t wane as quickly as Android premium models do.'
  • David Emery on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/25-5/29/26) - 'If AAPL does split, will PED then have to adjust the “PED3.0” subscription price accordingly?'
  • Robert Stack on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/25-5/29/26) - 'Another data point on the so-called memory chip shortage that I’m trying to reconcile: Yahoo News informs me that Amazon is cutting the price of the MacBook Neo – both the 256 and 512GB versions – by a whopping $10 as a Memorial Day sale. While I doubt that a $10 off sale would make anyone rush out to buy one, what I found more interesting is that delivery is promised for most (all?) models by Tuesday. Would Apple really prioritize delivery of its supposedly supply-limited Neos to Amazon for sale instead of its own stores?'
  • Bart Yee on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/25-5/29/26) - 'https://omdia.tech.informa.com/pr/2026/may/latin-american-smartphone-market-grows-3percent-in-1q-2026-to-34point8-million-units-amid-rising-memory-costs Omdia: Latin American smartphone market grows 3% in 1Q 2026 to 34.8 million units amid rising memory costs May 20, 2026 Omdia’s latest analysis shows the Latin American (LATAM) smartphone market grew 3% year over year in 1Q 2026 to 34.8 million units—an upside results following record shipments in 4Q and full-year 2025. Growth was underpinned by proactive inventory accumulation by sales channels, portfolio simplification by OEMs with a tilt toward lower storage configurations, and delayed price pass‑through of rising DRAM and NAND costs. Premium demand (above US$500) remained resilient, while value and entry tiers faced tighter affordability. Latin America smartphone shipments and growth, 1Q22 to 1Q26 Samsung led the region, shipping 12.9 million units (+9% YoY) and lifting share to 37%, its highest quarterly level since 1Q 2023, supported by strong performance of A‑series models across low‑end and mid‑high segments. Xiaomi held second, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of growth with 6.0 million units and 17% share, driven by double‑digit gains in Central America and Peru and solid traction of the Redmi Note 15 series in the mid‑high range. Motorola ranked third, contracting 5% YoY to 4.9 million units and 14% share, largely reflecting a 37% drop in shipments of US$100–US$200 devices, where G06 and G17 are key models. HONOR consolidated in fourth with 30% YoY growth to 3.4 million units and a 10% share, propelled by its Play 10 in the entry segment (below US$100), which approached half a million units sold for the first time. Apple completed the top five with a 31% YoY increase, supported by an exceptional performance in Mexico (+80% YoY) and robust reception of the iPhone 17 series. (1.8M) “Though rising RAM and storage costs were not yet visible on the average sales prices (ASPs) in 1Q, the pressure is real and will be felt more clearly in the second half,” said Miguel Ángel Pérez, Senior Analyst at Omdia. “Front‑loaded deliveries helped sustain sell‑through, but as retail prices begin to reflect higher memory costs from late 2Q onward, demand is likely to soften—especially in entry and low‑end segments that account for roughly 70% of the LATAM market. Additional component cost increases, alongside macro uncertainty and potential inflationary effects from global tensions into 4Q, could further slow demand, extending contraction into 1H 2027.” Apple has 19% share in Mexico, and 5% in Brasil, less than 7-8% in Peru, Columbia, and Central America.'
  • Bart Yee on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/25-5/29/26) - 'https://omdia.tech.informa.com/pr/2026/may/southeast-asia-smartphone-market-shipments-decline-9percent-in-1q26-as-vendors-prioritize-profitability-over-share Omdia: Southeast Asia smartphone market shipments decline 9% in 1Q26, as vendors prioritize profitability over share May 19, 2026 Latest research from Omdia shows that Southeast Asia’s smartphone market declined 9% year-on-year in 1Q26, with shipments totaling 21.6 million units. However, the standout metric was average selling price (ASP) rather than volume: the ASP reached a record high of $349 in 1Q26, up 19% year-on-year, as memory cost inflation reset device pricing across the region. The divergence between volume and value is a clear signal that the region’s vendor landscape is undergoing a structural repricing: brands are prioritizing ASP growth and margin protection over unit shipment growth, with several accepting significant volume losses in exchange for healthier per-device economics. As DRAM and NAND costs continue to rise into 2026, the region’s structurally price-sensitive consumer demand base is facing growing affordability pressure, with more than 60% of SEA smartphones priced below $200. Vendor Rankings and Market Share Adjustments • Samsung led the region with 4.6 million units and a 21% share, up 4% year-on-year, driven by a combination of a strong S26 launch and A-series volume drivers. • OPPO ranked second with 4.2 million units, declining 17% amid operational corrections due to its combination with realme. • Xiaomi placed third with 3.7 million units shipped, down 12% year-on-year, as portfolio-wide price hikes reduced channel appetite and constrained wallet allocation. • TRANSSION ranked fourth with 3.4 million units, down 10%, with its competitively priced Infinix and TECNO models continuing to support strong positions in Indonesia and the Philippines. • vivo completed the top five with 2.1 million units, down 27%, as the brand shifted focus toward profitability by pulling back from the affordable entry-level segment that typically anchors volume share. • Apple ranked sixth at 1.8 million units, broadly flat year-on-year, with the strong performance of the iPhone 17 series exhibiting notably less price discounting than its predecessor at the equivalent stage. • HONOR was the standout performer among tracked vendors, growing 28% year-on-year to 1.2 million units, with shipment growth in six of eight SEA markets despite regional decline.” There are additional discussions on affordability, country specific markets, and tables showing market shares per country. Of the 5, Apple only has above 10% in Vietnam 20%, and Thailand 15%, <10% in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Philippines.'
  • Bart Yee on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/25-5/29/26) - 'https://omdia.tech.informa.com/pr/2026/may/middle-east-smartphone-market-expected-to-decline-22percent-after-weak-start-to-2026 Omdia: Middle East smartphone market expected to decline 22% after weak start to 2026 May 21, 2026 Latest research from Omdia shows the Middle East smartphone market (excluding Turkey) declined 6% year-over-year (YoY) to 11 million units in 1Q26 despite significant inventory frontloading ahead of Ramadan and new launches across the region. However, weaker retail sell-through and cautious consumer sentiment continued to weigh on replacement demand. At the same time, persistent global memory cost inflation pushed smartphone prices higher across both new and existing portfolios, limiting promotional intensity. Rising geopolitical tensions toward the end of the quarter further disrupted regional supply-chain activity and added pressure on consumer confidence across the region. Rising Cost Pressures and Geopolitical Tension Reshape Vendor Strategies “Middle East smartphone vendors entered 2026 navigating rising cost pressures, weaker low-end demand and broader geopolitical uncertainty,” said Manish Pravinkumar, Principal Analyst at Omdia. “Vendors reacted with broader pricing revisions across both new and existing smartphone portfolios, driving regional ASPs to a record $450, up 15% YoY in 1Q26. Samsung retained market leadership and widened its lead with a 34% share, supported by the Galaxy S26 series alongside a refreshed A-series portfolio. HONOR became the region’s second-largest smartphone vendor for the first time in 1Q26, with 73% YoY growth driven by sustained improvements in retail execution, wider distribution expansion, and improving brand perception across Gulf markets. In contrast, TRANSSION and Xiaomi faced increasing pressure across entry-level segments as affordability constraints and weaker promotional activity weighed on replacement demand. Apple continued to demonstrate resilient premium demand across the region, with the iPhone 17 Pro Max ranking among the region’s top-shipping models.” Pricing Pressure and Supply Constraints to Challenge Smartphone Vendors Through 2026 “Omdia expects the Middle East smartphone market to decline 22% in 2026 as pricing pressure, selective supply allocation and macro uncertainty continue to weigh on regional demand,” concluded Pravinkumar. “Vendors are expected to face a significantly tougher environment through the remainder of 2026 amid rising smartphone prices and uneven consumer sentiment across the region. In lower Gulf economies and more value-conscious markets such as Iraq, affordability constraints are increasingly delaying smartphone replacement cycles as higher retail prices pressure entry-level and mid-range demand. In contrast, affluent Gulf markets are also expected to see volume declines, although brands will continue prioritising premium segments through financing programs, trade-in activity and flagship launches. Furthermore, rising geopolitical uncertainty and potential disruptions across regional trade and logistics routes are expected to create additional pressure on smartphone availability, pricing and channel dynamics during the latter part of 2026.” Vendor shipments (million) Samsung 3.7M 34% +1% YoY HONOR 2.0M 18% +73% TRANSSION 1.3M 12% -32% Apple 1.2M 11% -2% Xiaomi 1.2M 11% -28% Others 1.4M 14% -25% Total 11.0M 100% -6%'
  • Darren DMW on Postcard from Brač - 'One of my favourite parts of the world. If you cycle into Bol there is a great winery with very interesting local wines. I am pretty sure the tastings were free when we went and the A/C in the old attractive cellars was a nice stop for the kids. Vino Stina or locally Vinarija Stina It’s right opposite the marina. google maps link in the comment awaiting moderation'
  • Darren DMW on Postcard from Brač - 'One of my favourite parts of the world. If you cycle into Bol there is a great winery with very interesting local wines. Vino Stina or locally Vinarija Stina It’s right opposite the marina. https://maps.app.goo.gl/seesMJbdKKBjJTpP8'
  • Gregg Thurman on Postcard from Brač - 'Thanks PED.'
  • Joseph Bland on This week's Apple trading strategies (5/25-5/29/26) - 'So PED’s 1 share of AAPL bought in 2020 for $281 split later that year into 4 shares, which, if he kept them all, are now worth (308.82×4=) $1,235.28 or 440% more. With one more double, they’ll be worth 880% more – and so it goes.'
  • Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Postcard from Brač - 'Gregg asks: Philip, have you got a sense of the cost of living there? Low‑50s on Numbeo’s scale (New York City = 100). That’s for Croatia as a whole. Brač, which is an island, will be more expensive.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Not a bad plan, Dan, IMO. There are two bottom lines I see going forward: Bottom line # 1: Gregg’s right that Investor Sentiment rules the roost on short-to-medium-term investing momentum. Bottom line #2: In rare cases (like Apple Inc [and looking like Nvidia]), there are underlying fundamentals that can and will rule longer term investing momentum.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Postcard from Brač - 'That’s some very impressive architecture. Thanks for sharing and enjoy your trip.'
  • Dan Scropos on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Good stuff, Joe. You’ve got me thinking about dollar cost averaging my into the stock, in the event it goes a little lower.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Postcard from Brač - 'Philip, have you got a sense of the cost of living there?'
  • Stephen Gordon on Postcard from Brač - 'Gorgeous!'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Thanks for the response, Dan. I don’t disagree. Things are in real flux right now with both companies, and so it is with their valuations. And yes, trailing P/EPS ratios are always a measure of what happened to the cows AFTER the barn doors were finally closed. But that doesn’t mean studying them can’t show the keen observer patterns to guide future actions. IOW, a drop in valuation, however it is measured, from 46 to 33 in just a few days is dramatic, and I am simply (1) alerting folks to that having happened, and (2) offering my personal opinion about what the two main things are that I see as behind it, mainly because I’ve literally seen it happen before, in the early days of Apple’s buyback strategy,. Those two main causes being: (1) Nvidia’s massive March quarter net cash increase driving this specific average P/EPS measure of stock valuation down precipitously literally overnight; and (2) the knee-jerk reaction from short term traders whose sentiment appears to be that shifting all that cash into buybacks is akin to lighting it on fire, especially when it is accompanied by a selloff, said selloff resulting in an exacerbation of that huge overnight “devaluation” (which in reality was nothing of the sort) from fast-following NVDA selling pressure. In short, Investor Sentiment soured because most investors haven’t got a clue. OTOH, I guarantee you Nvidia’s leaders are quite happy to see the possibility of buying back undervalued NVDA, just as Apple has been for well over a decade now. And happy as well should be any truly enlightened long term NVDA investors. just like their Apple counterparts. Or – Monday could see folks quickly returning to net buying. I have no magic wand predicting where any given stock, including Apple, will go in the short run.'
  • Robert Stack on Saturday Apple video: Counselor (Get a Mac 2006) - 'And IIRC, at some point Justin Long started hawking PCs for Intel. I guess most everyone has their price – for his sake, I hope it was high.'
  • Hap Allen on Saturday Apple video: Counselor (Get a Mac 2006) - 'I watched that full-screen, freezing it when the ‘therapist’ fills the screen. Take a look at her necklace. Is there any meaning in it?'
  • Hap Allen on Apple at $308.82: Third record high in a row - 'Greg, you made me think about what the resulting share cost would be after a 3-for-1 split. That ‘low’ price could be pretty attractive to new investors in Apple. For instance, a fresh cohort of teenagers. I was stunned just now to see in a virtual tour of the school I attended that the students there have a Bloomberg terminal in the library. Times have changed…'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple at $308.82: Third record high in a row - '”I’m expecting AAPL to close over $310 next week” I wouldn’t object, but what you are saying is that, at that level, investors see AAPL printing $387 within a year (25% ROI). Using the same theory Ives’ $400 target comes into view with a present print of $320. This is why I believe Ives” target is very reasonable. On the question about when AAPL will split my response would be at about $450, and unlike my previous guess of 2:1, I think it will be a 3:1. On another note I’ve been seeing little changes in search results lately. On of those is a small print alert stating stating: “This search was made with SIRI.”'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Apple at $308.82: Third record high in a row - 'I don’t believe any of this matters pending the WWDC keynote. IF Apple delivers on AI in just a few weeks and impresses stakeholders around the world, today’s new all-time highs will quickly vanish into the proverbial rearview mirror.'
  • Dan Scropos on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I don’t disagree with anything you said, really, but I would challenge you to dismiss the current Nvidia p/e, as it’s a lagging indicator. Nvidia is expected, as a midpoint, to earn ~$10 in eps over the next 12 months. My guess is it will be closer to $11 … but let’s use $10. Slap on a 30 p/e at some point over the next 12-ish month and you have a $300 print. If they get to $11, you’re probably looking at $330-ish. To me, this thing is cheap NOW.'
  • David Drinkwater on Saturday Apple video: Counselor (Get a Mac 2006) - 'Inch by inch Row by row Gonna make this garden grow mu$ic to my ear$'