Recent Comments

  • Bill Fouche on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Bart: Thank you for all of this detailed information. You are so generous with your time in sharing it. You do it often. And it is greatly appreciated!'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Back to Jefferies, regarding mixed lead times: “Jefferies said lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max shortened across most markets early in the previous week before increasing again towards the weekend. As of September 27, iPhone 18 Pro Max lead times were longer than a year earlier in Hong Kong, China and the United States, shorter in Britain and Germany, and unchanged in Japan. For the iPhone 18 Pro, lead times were longer year over year in Hong Kong and China, shorter in the United States and Germany, and unchanged in Britain and Japan. ((Gee, longer times YOY for BOTH Pro models in Hong Kong AND China, so much for reseller comments that demand seems soft, too bad!! Maybe they really don’t want to buy from you and your inflated prices.)) And “an explanation”: “The analysts cautioned that the later increase could reflect tighter availability as Apple increases production of its DUO device ahead of deliveries scheduled to begin October 23, rather than an increase in underlying demand.“ Jefferies, YOU really believe Apple is pulling production capacity away from Pro Models to build capacity for Duo, while they have significant excess capacity continuing to build iPhone 17 but NOT producing the base iPhone 18, Air/Air 2, and older models? IMO, in other words, Jefferies really hasn’t a clue, and somehow doesn’t believe Apple hasn’t (clearly) been planning production capacity like forever, managing to actually reduce production costs (by eliminating costly third shifts and overtime by bifurcating introductions AND diversifying to India) while dealing with a tight RAM market and newer designs. As before, isolated supply chain hiccups are NOT necessarily indications of significant constraints, until at least Apple itself announces them. As for Duo, even if production is taking longer to ramp up, demand there is likely to keep building and create FOMO for normal buyers, for resellers and gray market buyers, and interested users, leading to what most of us believe to be much more than expected demand and very tight, even scarce Duo supply for some time, despite the issues below. And lastly the Duo e-SIM sold in China which can carry 2 numbers vs Hong Kong regular physical SIMs which can manage up to 8 numbers, supposedly an issue if traveling and you want easy accessibility to multiple numbers in multiple locations or foreign countries, especially in China. Here I agree there is more friction in China regarding carrying more than 2 multiple numbers, requiring strict in person at store phone number management, and getting more from the state owned Chinese Telecoms means them giving up their lucrative roaming charges business models as well as complying with current Chinese regulator rules on ID’s, numbers, and tracking. But is it a big threat to ultimate adoption for well heeled businessmen and women, domestic and foreign travelers, and other use cases? We will just have to let that play out. Maybe those people get their hands on a Hong Kong instead of China only version? Like any new product, Apple had to make choices and some compromises for the greater design goals. With the Duo, some specific “deficits” and “missing features” may be evident with first adopters, but becomes a roadmap for future updates and upgrades for the Duo II and Duo III, plus Duo Max or Duo Pro. Can’t please all of the people all of the time, but maybe 6M this year, 10-14M in 2027, and with a possible update in 2027-2028, who knows?'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - 'There are lots of reasons why (if they truly are) resale pricing of iPhone 18s appear to be soft compared to last year’s iPhone 17. My favorite is the introduction of iPhone Duo. I’ve been negative about the financial impact of a foldable iPhone from the beginning. My sense was that (still is) there is no real market for a $2,000 (minimum) foldable handset. Most purchases of the Duo will be cannibalized from iPhone Pro and Pro Max models. Given that an extremely few consumers will buy 2 iPhones for their personal use, those that would have bought a Pro or Pro Max are waiting for the Duo to ship.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Starting in Q4 CY2023, Berkshire Hathaway divested roughly 670 million Apple shares (about 74% of its peak stake) over the past three years. Its peak holdings were 915M shares. How much did BRK earn from those sales? Total Shares Divested ~670M shares Gross Revenue (Proceeds) ~$124 Billion —>> estimated average price of $180-185 per share Total Invested Cost Basis ~$22.5 Billion Realized Pre-Tax Profits ~$100 Billion Estimated Taxes Paid ~$21 Billion Total Net After-Tax Profits ~$79 Billion BRK added that $79B to its now total $325B cash stockpile, adding 24% of the value, moved directly into short-term U.S. Treasury bills. That hoard now generates over $13B in annual interest while having no stock market risk. The $79B portion generates about $3.2B in interest, of course higher than the $750M in AAPL annual dividends it would have made. Of course, if BRK had held, it would have, lemme see here, about $100B over the $124B gross proceeds, about 44% more than when they finished selling. Don’t be sad for BRK, they still have 228M AAPL shares left worth $76B, still their largest position, but GOOGL has been quickly built into its #3 holding. Based on today’s close, the total value of Berkshire’s top five equity blocks stands at an astounding $218.52 billion Apple $76.05B + American Express $45.90B + Alphabet $36.32B + Coca-Cola $34.27B + Bank of America $25.98B). From fourth quarter (Q4) 2023 through today, Apple has repurchased and retired approximately 1.22 billion shares from circulation. The Shrinking Share Count • Shares Outstanding (Q4 2023): ~15.81 billion shares • Shares Outstanding (Current): ~14.59 billion shares • Net Reduction: ~7.7% of the total company share count 1.22B shares, wiped out in roughly three years. Total Dollars Deployed To achieve this massive reduction, Apple utilized its massive free cash flow to execute the following buybacks: • Fiscal 2024: $100.4 billion spent (including a record-breaking $110 billion single authorization) • Fiscal 2025: $96.7 billion spent • Fiscal 2026: Supported by an additional $100 billion program authorized for the year. (Total ~$272B for 1.22B shares, ASP ~ $223/share.) Essentially, Apple, in 3 years, has retired more stock than BRK ever held during its entire AAPL share ownership. Those 670M shares BRK put back into the market were essentially absorbed and retired by Apple and then some.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'It’s already drawn a very public response from Apple: 

https://developer.apple.com/news/?id=p6zjojqw From Apple: “We give developers powerful APIs to build incredible capabilities into their apps for Apple products, backed by a set of controls designed to protect users’ private data. Full Disk Access largely sidesteps these controls in order to allow backup apps to function properly on the Mac. Some developers are using Full Disk Access in ways that could put users at risk, exposing everything on their systems—including files, mail, messages, and even browsing history—without users’ full knowledge and understanding. For communication apps, this can also compromise the privacy of the people users are communicating with. Going forward, we will introduce additional controls to ensure that users who genuinely wish to grant an app this extraordinary level of access can only do so with very explicit user action. Addressing this is critical. As AI agents become increasingly capable and autonomous, the risks associated with this level of access will grow substantially. We are committed to ensuring users clearly understand these risks before granting such access, so they can make informed decisions about their own data and privacy.”'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Anyone else following this “full disk access” story? This from TechCrunch: https://apple.news/Ad74VfOiqQaCX04ElPij9jg'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - '“ The broker also pointed to Apple’s use of lower-cost QLC NAND rather than TLC NAND in the 1TB and 2TB versions. Jefferies said the change could affect the relative appeal of the higher-capacity models based on storage performance.” While this is true, but according to Tom’s Hardware Guide: “It’s important to note that these are synthetic benchmarks and are meant to represent a worse case scenario. Users should not experience any performance issues during typical tasks such as web browsing, messaging, gaming, or taking photos. Any slowdown is likely to be noticeable only during specific workloads, such as 4K or ProRes recording, large file transfers, or data backup restores. Having said that, testing by Homolab does point to the trade-off involved in using QLC NAND for a high-capacity flagship smartphone, particularly for users who regularly deal with storage-intensive tasks.“ For the technical details: https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/ssds/iphone-18-pro-max-storage-can-drop-lower-than-a-hard-drive-at-1-1-mb-s-during-heavy-writes-qlc-nand-offers-higher-capacity-but-reportedly-suffers-38-percent-drop-compared-to-tlc-based-pro Would it be a deterrent for Pro Models or for the Duo? Maybe a select few in Prosumer applications and use cases, but for most above average Apple users in this price tier, not sure they are aware of it, or would approach these limits. Again, another theoretical situation that applies to a fairly small (but important, every sale is important) user population. Likely to be remedied if and when high capacity TLC NAND Storage comes back to earth.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - '“The grey market for Android smartphones operates on fundamentally different mechanics than Apple’s ecosystem. While the iPhone market is a steady, predictable pipeline built on international tax evasion, the Android secondary market relies strictly on extreme hardware scarcity, volatile local currencies, and geopolitical software isolation. When scalping occurs for Android devices, it frequently commands much higher brief premiums than iPhones, but it struggles to achieve the same long-term national scale. A premier example of Android scalping is found in Huawei’s ultra-premium tier, particularly its tri-fold flagship series. Because Huawei creates severe artificial scarcity for these hyper-engineered foldables, market demand completely breaks standard retail expectations. At launch, the Mate XT retailed for roughly twenty-eight hundred dollars, but massive waiting lists allowed scalpers at electronics hubs to flip individual devices for over ninety-eight hundred dollars. This generated staggering seven-thousand-dollar pure profit premiums per phone through proxy-buying syndicates. Despite these massive spikes, the Android grey market fails to scale globally like Apple’s for three structural reasons. First, the global bootloader and regional software wall fracture the user experience. Sourcing a premium Huawei device from China means it operates on HarmonyOS without Google Mobile Services out of the box, making it unusable for everyday Western consumers. Second, Android flagships suffer from rapid depreciation curves. Frequent manufacturer discounts and aggressive carrier trade-in promotions mean middlemen risk losing money if they cannot export inventory immediately. Finally, Android manufacturers intentionally price their devices cheaper in developing nations, organically eliminating the profit margins that third-party smugglers try to capture. Samsung devices are heavily traded on the grey market, though their movement is driven entirely by price arbitrage rather than supply shortages. Traders exploit major geographic price gaps caused by steep import tariffs in regions like Latin America. For instance, middlemen bulk-buy standard unlocked factory US variants of the Galaxy series and smuggle them into Mexico or Brazil, selling them at thirty to forty percent below official local retail prices. Furthermore, major online e-commerce platforms frequently host third-party sellers listing heavily discounted international regional variants sourced from Malaysia or the Middle East. Because Samsung actively fights this unauthorized practice, it deploys much more aggressive software barriers and legal blocks than Apple ever does. To prevent cross-market reselling, Samsung implements a mandatory five-minute regional SIM lock, requiring a continuous phone call using a native SIM in the origin country before an exported device can function globally. Additionally, recent US hardware configurations are rigidly locked out of accepting foreign network eSIMs or international physical SIM cards permanently. Most aggressively, Samsung launched an automated campaign in Mexico that pushed severe system warnings and remotely disabled grey-market smartphones entirely. Although consumer protection pressure eventually forced them to suspend the remote bricking policy, the underlying infrastructure to disable unauthorized imports remains a major deterrent for buyers. Ultimately, navigating the highly complex global Android grey market requires balancing steep upfront discounts against severe regional software lockdowns, strict global hardware restrictions, unexpected carrier incompatibility issues, and potential software security penalties to ensure the product remains functional.”'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'The NASDAQ Composite reached a new all-time intraday high today of 27,353.68 before closing up 1.19% on the day at 27,190.86. All four major indexes ended in the green. NVIDIA also set a new all-time intraday high of $237.87 and a new all-time closing high of $233.95. Morgan Stanley renamed NVIDIA its top semiconductor stock and set a price target on the shares of $300. NVIDIA’s market cap at the close was $5.65 trillion and is followed by Apple at $4.87 trillion.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Ok, so why would “demand” and falling premiums for gray market Hong Kong iPhones be softer than before? 1) with just iPhone Pro models to make, Foxconn and Apple don’t have to run extra full time and overtime production lines for Pro AND base models to meet even normal demand for just Pro Models. Even with delivery times stretched 4-6 weeks, Apple can concentrate on highest quality and sufficient supply for most regions. 2) yes, price can be a moderator of demand. With official retail prices already increased, maybe some users don’t feel the additional gray market premium markup is worth the hassle, risks, and operational headaches. So they’re going to exercise some patience and get the product they want and need and avoid the extra extra costs, risks, and whatever else de-motivates them. 3) obviously, there’s still plenty of demand for this type of arbitrage, and it’s common in Asian countries, as it is all over including the US (MLB playoff tickets, Super Bowl or specific concert tickets are similar with buyers, sellers, ticket resellers, etc.) Stock Market is no different, where have we heard the old saw – “took advantage of market inefficiencies “? But maybe the market (buyers) just don’t see the advantages as clearly as before, have more patience or the market evolves towards more export rather then local sales. The resellers will adapt quickly, no doubt. Frankly, don’t care for them, but as long as humans believe they can make a buck exploiting the emotions (want and desires, NOW), it’ll happen. And it isn’t small, estimate suggest 4-5M units change hands or cross borders within the first 3-6 weeks of introduction, using ingenious methods like drones flying zip lines across rivers (moved up to 15,000 units overnight), intercepting couriers (“ants”) with 40-140 iPhones strapped to their bodies, or industrial palette sized shipments sent to international electronics distributors. All in the name of profit, at every tier. But IMO, it’s hardly a concrete or significantly relevant indicator of gross demand for Apple iPhones, taking the words of a street farmer, middleman, or shop as some concrete indicator of supply OR demand. Worse than having a mole inside a parts supplier or the Foxconn factory. (BTW, similar arbitrage happens from US to LATAM, India to Russia, Africa & West Asia, Japan to HK, Far East, and Dubai to Eastern Europe, ironically, Iran.) Guess the desire for iPhones is universal.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - '“what about warranties, AppleCare and repairs, not to mention network compatibility?” When navigating the Hong Kong grey market, warranties and hardware configurations become highly restrictive. What seems like an identical phone on the surface has significant underlying structural, legal, and network differences. Warranties and AppleCare: The Global Catch The biggest myth of the grey market is that Apple offers an unrestricted universal global warranty on all products. According to Apple’s Official Warranty Terms, Apple explicitly reserves the right to restrict hardware service to the original country or region of sale. The Local Refusal Risk: If you buy a Hong Kong model iPhone and take it back to the UK, US, or Europe, your local Apple Store is not legally obligated to service it under the standard 1-year limited warranty. For simple repairs like a battery or screen replacement, they might accommodate you. However, if the device suffers a major logic board failure requiring a whole-unit replacement, local stores will likely refuse service because they do not stock the specific regional hardware variants. AppleCare+ Limitations: If you purchase AppleCare+ for a Hong Kong device, the policy technically follows the phone’s serial number. However, the same regional logistics apply. For example, if you attempt to use Hong Kong AppleCare+ in mainland China, users on Zhihu note you may be forced to provide strict immigration proof of entry/exit documents, official original purchase receipts, or pay localized price differences before any repair is authorized. Third-Party Shop Warranties: Many parallel-import stores at Sin Tat Plaza offer their own “in-house standard warranties” (typically 6 to 12 months). Be careful: these only cover functional parts if you physically bring the phone back to their specific stall in Hong Kong, and they absolutely do not transfer over to Apple. Network and Hardware Compatibility Hong Kong iPhones feature entirely different hardware architecture compared to Western models, presenting both a major benefit and a massive headache: • The Dual Physical SIM Tray: Unlike US models that have completely phased out physical trays in favor of eSIM, or European models that utilize 1 physical SIM + 1 eSIM, Hong Kong, Macau, and mainland China iPhones feature a specialized double-sided physical nano-SIM tray. They do not support standard eSIM provisioning for Western carriers on flagship tiers. If your home mobile carrier relies exclusively on eSIM, a Hong Kong phone will be unusable without converting your plan back to a physical nano-SIM card. Cellular Band Discrepancies: While modern iPhones are generally broad-spectrum, different regional models support different specific 5G and LTE bands. A Hong Kong model might lack specific millimeter-wave (mmWave) 5G bands used by major US carriers (like Verizon or AT&T), meaning that while the phone will work globally, you might experience slightly slower maximum cellular speeds or patchy coverage in certain deep-interior Western transit zones.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - '“WHO are those guys?” The “Scalpers” (Apple Farmers) • Everyday locals, students, and hired “granny armies”. They exploit Apple’s online lottery system to buy the max allowance at launch, walk right out of the store, and flip them on the pavement for an instant HK$2,000 cash profit. ((More like day traders, NOT to be confused with Apple 3.0 investors :-))) The Middlemen (Traders) • Independent operators standing outside Apple Stores with suitcases. They buy up stock directly from the street scalpers, pool hundreds of phones into suitcases, and immediately sell them upstream to handle the logistics of bulk moving. Independent Retail Stores • Independent phone stalls, centered at Sin Tat Plaza in Mong Kok. These shops buy from the middlemen. They function as the consumer-facing hub for buyers who want a device without a waitlist, or as exporters pushing stock to overseas markets. Why This Massive Market Exists in Hong Kong This massive resale network thrives because Hong Kong is entirely duty-free with no sales tax or VAT on electronics. This makes the city’s official Apple Store prices among the lowest in the world. Because nearby regions like mainland China, Vietnam, and the Middle East face high import tariffs, luxury taxes, or launch delays, massive international arbitrage demand is created. The “resellers” are simply capturing the profit margins left open by those global tax disparities.“ “Where They Are Buying From (The Source) The sourcing stage is incredibly localized and relies entirely on exploiting Hong Kong’s retail availability: • Official Apple Stores: The ultimate origin of almost every phone in this ecosystem is one of Hong Kong’s official retail outlets. The heaviest activity happens right outside the flagship Apple IFC Mall in Central and Apple Hysan Place in Causeway Bay. The Pavement “Trading Floors”: • Individual scalpers and local buyers who secure day-one pickup slots walk straight out of the glass doors and sell their devices directly to middlemen waiting on the sidewalk. Middlemen display signs showing 现价 (cash spot prices) to attract sellers looking to flip their phones instantly for cash. Telecom Bundles: • Independent retail shops also buy up “surplus” stock from locals who renew their mobile carrier contracts. Telecom companies frequently bundle heavily subsidized iPhones with high-end data plans; users who only care about the cheap data plan immediately sell the unopened iPhone to grey-market shops to pocket the cash. Where They Are Selling To (The Destinations) Once the stock is centralized by middlemen and independent shops, it is distributed across three main channels: • Mainland China (The Primary Hub): Historically, mainland China was the absolute biggest destination due to delayed product launches and strict import tariffs. Even with simultaneous launch dates today, Hong Kong iPhones remain highly desirable in the mainland because they feature a physical dual-SIM tray (which Chinese consumers highly favor over eSIMs) and completely bypass China’s luxury sales taxes. Independent traders frequently smuggle or transport these bulk orders across the Shenzhen border. • International Cross-Border Markets: A massive percentage of the stock gathered at electronics hubs like Sin Tat Plaza (83 Argyle St, Mong Kok) is sold to wholesale exporters. These exporters ship the devices in bulk to regions with notoriously high electronic import taxes or restricted Apple distribution networks, such as Vietnam, India, the Philippines, Russia, and the Middle East. • The Local “Impatient” Market: A smaller percentage is sold right in Hong Kong to local consumers or tourists who missed the online preorder windows and are willing to pay a premium to skip a 4-to-6 week shipping delay.”'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'My comments (note long, skip if TL:DR): “Jefferies said resale pricing for Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) latest high-end iPhones in Hong Kong is below levels recorded for comparable models last year, which the broker said could indicate softer demand for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max. According to the analysts, the iPhone 18 Pro was trading at discounts to Apple’s official pricing across almost all storage configurations. Resale premiums for the iPhone 18 Pro Max declined sharply on launch day and subsequently remained low or moved lower… Jefferies attributed part of the difference to price increases of $400 and $500, which the analysts said may be high relative to consumers’ perceived value of the new models.” ((I had to do a double take on this one because #1) Jefferies is quoting this “data” and #2) somehow the localized Hong Kong resale data is relevant to Apple’s overall iPhone 18 Pro model demand. It’s a real stretch in opinion. And of course, I believe this is Edison Lee, who IMO is looking for anything that supports his bear thesis on Apple.)) First, what is resale pricing and who’s doing the reselling? Asking Gemini: “what are hong kong iphone resale prices? is this retail stores, middlemen, or essentially scalpers?” Hong Kong iPhone Resale Prices • Launch-day markup: HK$2,000 to HK$3,000 above official retail per unit. (($255-$382 USD above retail)) • High-demand models: Premium variants like the Pro Max or new foldable “Duo” fetch up to HK$5,000 over retail. (($637 USD above retail)) • Quick profit: Handsets retailing at HK$13,299 pull buyback offers near HK$15,600 on release day. ((difference of ~HK$2300 or $293 USD)) • Rapid cooling: Premiums often shrink or collapse to single-digit percentages within weeks as supply catches up. Retail Stores, Middlemen, or Scalpers? • Essentially scalpers and grey-market traders: The active buyers outside Apple Stores and in hubs like Sincere Podium in Mong Kok function as specialized short-term scalpers. • Arbitrage network: They exploit Hong Kong’s duty-free pricing to flip units to high-demand regions like mainland China and the Middle East. • Not official retail: Authorized Apple Stores sell strictly at retail price, actively trying to block bulk-buying via registration limits. • The “middleman” layer: Street-level runners hire people to pre-order, then aggregate inventory to pass up to larger grey-market exporters.” Second, why? Hong Kong iPhone resale prices operate on a highly organized “grey market” arbitrage system, blending the lines between individual scalpers, entrepreneurial middlemen, and professional independent electronics shops. The market dynamics function heavily on whether a device is a newly released flagship model or an older/standard model, operating out of a fascinating multi-tiered ecosystem. Current Resale Prices & Trends Resale prices dictate a razor-thin or entirely inverted margin for standard devices, while certain high-demand models command brief spikes: • iPhone 18 Pro Max: High-Demand Premiums: Highly coveted, supply-constrained devices like the iPhone 18 Pro Max initially pulled a launch-day premium of HK$2,000 to HK$2,500 above the standard Apple retail price. • iPhone 18: Rapid Depreciation: For standard models (like the base iPhone 18 or even high-capacity storage tiers like the 2TB Pro series), resale prices have plummeted quickly—frequently trading HK$500 to HK$1,050 below official Apple retail prices within weeks of launch due to softer local demand. ((note iPhone 18 not yet released, but could be extrapolated based on prior iPhone generations))'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Cisco Systems had a good day. It traded ex-div and gained $3.86 per share or 3.56% to close at $112.20. It was the top performer on the DJIA today. Apple supplier Broadcom gained $11.50 or 3.35% to finish the session at $355.14. Apple rose $3.37 or 1.02% to end the week at $333.69.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'From InvestorsHub via Yahoo! Finance, Jefferies reports on perceived demand issues, with my comments to follow. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/jefferies-sees-signs-softer-iphone-153500487.html Jefferies Sees Signs of Softer iPhone 18 Demand in Resale Pricing “Jefferies said resale pricing for Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) latest high-end iPhones in Hong Kong is below levels recorded for comparable models last year, which the broker said could indicate softer demand for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max. According to the analysts, the iPhone 18 Pro was trading at discounts to Apple’s official pricing across almost all storage configurations. Resale premiums for the iPhone 18 Pro Max declined sharply on launch day and subsequently remained low or moved lower. The 256GB iPhone 18 Pro Max was the only version retaining what Jefferies described as a meaningful resale premium, trading around 8% above Apple’s official price. Higher-capacity versions were priced lower, with the 2TB model trading HK$1,049 below its official price as of 5 p.m. on September 27. Jefferies attributed part of the difference to price increases of $400 and $500, which the analysts said may be high relative to consumers’ perceived value of the new models. The broker also pointed to Apple’s use of lower-cost QLC NAND rather than TLC NAND in the 1TB and 2TB versions. Jefferies said the change could affect the relative appeal of the higher-capacity models based on storage performance. As of September 27, resale premiums for the iPhone 18 Pro Max were below those recorded for the iPhone 17 Pro Max at the equivalent point a year earlier across all storage configurations except the 256GB version, according to Jefferies.“ Delivery Lead Times Show Mixed Picture Delivery lead times provided a less consistent indication of demand. Jefferies said lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max shortened across most markets early in the previous week before increasing again towards the weekend. The analysts cautioned that the later increase could reflect tighter availability as Apple increases production of its DUO device ahead of deliveries scheduled to begin October 23, rather than an increase in underlying demand. As of September 27, iPhone 18 Pro Max lead times were longer than a year earlier in Hong Kong, China and the United States, shorter in Britain and Germany, and unchanged in Japan. For the iPhone 18 Pro, lead times were longer year over year in Hong Kong and China, shorter in the United States and Germany, and unchanged in Britain and Japan. Jefferies Flags China eSIM Considerations for DUO Pre-orders for Apple’s DUO device are scheduled to begin October 16. Jefferies said adoption in China could face a constraint because the device is eSIM-only and supports two eSIM numbers in the country, compared with support for as many as eight on eSIM-compatible iPhones in Hong Kong. The broker said this limitation could affect Chinese consumers who use multiple telephone numbers for work, personal purposes or international travel. According to Jefferies, users who have already reached the two-number limit and want to add a travel eSIM after arriving in China may need to suspend one of their domestic numbers through an in-person visit to a mobile operator. Reactivating the number would require another visit. Jefferies said these restrictions may have a limited effect on early adopters but could become more relevant to broader demand. The analysts also cited the possibility that some consumers could wait if they expect Apple to introduce a second-generation regular-sized foldable device in 2027. Jefferies maintained its Underperform rating on Apple. The report cited the shares at $341.07.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Last stop in France: Bordeaux - '”We fly out tomorrow morning.” Yay! See you Monday, if not before.'
  • Joseph Bland on Last stop in France: Bordeaux - 'It’ll be good to have you back, PED. As PED returns, it’s a good time for me to take another sabbatical from Apple 3.0. Aloha, folks!'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'BTW, I support buybacks because the more AAPL owners become long term Apple investors, the more stable the stock becomes. So ultimately, encouraging buybacks helps support Apple, and thus helps Donna, myself, and eventually our kids, their kids, etcetera.'
  • David Emery on Last stop in France: Bordeaux - 'Safe and boring travels home!'
  • Joseph Bland on Last stop in France: Bordeaux - 'Fun history lessons! And yet again, the name of Eleanor of Aquitaine is invoked! Donna will be thrilled!'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Bingo, Bill! Upvoted! And not just financials: Any data that needs to be protected from theivery.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'To repeat from lower in this thread: As long as Apple keeps buying back undervalued stock, the beat goes on. Because part of the “magic” that will allow Apple to make that average increase in $- denominated value of 21%/year is the impact on EPS of Apple buying back undervalued AAPL. EPS, as I’ve repeatedly said over many years now, being the metric that is driving Apple’s stock price continually higher.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Sorry – ran out of edit time. That should have said: “… any AAPL share bought before 2013 doubles its ownership of Apple.” And yes, as long as Apple keeps buying back undervalued stock, the beat goes on.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Volume-wise, traders are more and more obviously fighting a losing battle. They received some respite when BH dumped a huge number of their AAPL shares starting a few years back, which gave traders something to play with. But since that time, Apple has sopped up the overflow, and now that spillage has disappeared. Their ability to manipulate the value of Apple by wagging the tiny post-premarket AAPL Saint Bernard’s tail is waning faster than an ice cube on the sun-facing surface of Mercury, as more and more long term investors hitch themselves to Apple’s rising star. Anyone can see this by looking at a split-adjusted all-time AAPL stock price chart, where, starting in 2013, Apple began seriously shrinking its float, eventually absorbing so much undervalued AAPL that it’s average buyback price is about $72/share, and it has simultaneously disappeared about 44% of its split-adjusted 2013 stock float. When 50% of the float has been disappeared, any stick bought befor doubles. And the beat goes on….'
  • Bill Donahue on Premarket: Apple is green - 'https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/video/apple-could-actually-one-truly-120000654.html “Apple could actually be the one to truly ‘nail’ the consumer AI agent race” Specifically, they say that in relation to allowing AI to access and help manage and transact financial matters, because of Apple’s sole delivery on privacy and security, the trust they have rightfully earned from their users, and the fact they’ve already got Apple Pay. In terms of “killer apps” (if we still live in the world where such a thing exists, given the growing prevalence of AI), what is more important at its very core than someone’s finances? And what company is better placed and equipped to do such a thing safely and securely? I can tell you with absolute certainty that it isn’t and never will be Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, or Space-X.'
  • Robert Stack on Inside Chateaux Beynac - 'Good thing Eleanor lived in a time and place that was opening up to alternatives to the male-dominated “warrior culture.” If she were alive today, she’d be denounced as “woke” and purged from any position of authority in government. At least in the USA…and of yeah, nice pics PED!'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Bill: I very much like the enhancements to the Apple Watch line. The Duo signals Apple’s passion for innovation remains alive and the new Siri is definitely a big leap forward for Apple’s digital assistant and consumer satisfaction. What I believe is driving some of the Street’s sentiment is Apple did not increase iPhone prices due to the spike in memory costs as much as some analysts expected. While that might pinch margins a bit, I think Apple was smart to protect its market position than push prices even higher for consumers.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Hi, T. Bart reported that yesterday, in some detail.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'So for Apple to match the 10.7X increase in $ of the last decade, it has to increase at (17.78+3.3=) about 21%/year for the next decade, assuming a 3.3% increase/year in inflation. Is that in the realm of possibility? It’s a stretch, but I think it is. Now wouldn’t that be something!'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Back to the battle! We are now in the final hour of trading for Friday and the week. Apple is currently trading up $2.91 or 0.88% at $333.23. Apple ended trading last Friday at $341.07. Although shares are trading down on the week, the shares will end the week with a gain on the day.'