Recent Comments

  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I just posted this in the AAPL Independent Analysts group on LinkedIn. I’ll share it here: Looking at the overall market’s performance today I can understand investor bewilderment after Wednesday’s big gains in prices followed by today’s big selloff across sectors. The DJIA fell 3.44%, the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite dropped 5.52% and the S&P 500 retreated 4.36% on the day. In today’s trading Apple gave back $5.34 or 1.53% from yesterday’s all-time closing high of $349.51. Apple, which reported earnings on Monday, continues to keep the confidence of several Wall Street analysts. For example, CFRA is maintaining its Buy recommendation on the shares and its $380 price target following results. With today’s price drop Apple ended the session right at the $5 trillion market cap marker.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Daniel, my response had to do with how little AAPL declined vs all the AI stocks. You used a phrase that set it up perfectly.'
  • Daniel Epstein on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Gregg my remark was referring to Raj’s “Turbo spike to 360 today?” question as I was expressing skepticism that Apple would spike even further than it had done earlier in the day. Apple stock gave up its record high of 355.38 and with the day low of 342.06 it only finished down 1.53 % at 344.17.from its opening of 353.89. So not terrible but the range was bigger than the close implies. Considering how much momentum Apple had from the day before I could say a bit of a pullback would be expected. The major market sell off magnitude didn’t leave Apple stock unscathed and likely delayed any run to 360 for at least the weekend.'
  • Richard Gayle on Mark Gurman: Apple curtails AI use by its engineers - 'Speaking of EEE Times, this came out last month with an interesting insight into misleading accounting by the hyperscalers: The AI Boom Has a Gigawatt Accounting Problem This caught my attention: “This does not mean the underlying demand is artificial. It does mean that the roles of supplier, customer, investor, and financier are becoming increasingly difficult to separate.” Everybody is investing so when multiple companies talk about so much GW of capacity from datacenters, they are often talking about the same datacenters, not separate ones. But Wall Street continues to act like they are all different. Circular financing for circular control of the same facilities.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Mark Gurman: Apple curtails AI use by its engineers - '”gets a more accurate budget” If Apple can see how much is personal use, and how much is professional, they may be able establish AI usage tiers for free Apple Intelligence, and when to start charging for professional tiers.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Mark Gurman: Apple curtails AI use by its engineers - '”there’s probably going to be a glut of chips in the not-too-distant future, when financial rationality returns to tech stocks.” Bill I’ve been harping about the financial model of LLM data centers for well over a year. The first concern I saw was in the EEE Times. Their financial analyses way back then was so thorough I completely swore off the hype and questioned the utility of AI. I’ll never understand how so many intelligent people ignored the gaping shortfalls in the financials. The only possibility was that they planned to abandon the technology after taking their gains and running to the bank. That run, with pockets bulging, has begun. This time next year will be too late.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Premarket: Apple is green - '”given market sell off.” The NAZ closed today’s session down ~6.72% AAPL finished the day down ~1.25%. Today’s sell off was not an Apple thing. AAPL got cast out with the bath water. I would expect a recovery beginning Monday'
  • Don Donofrio on Mark Gurman: Apple curtails AI use by its engineers - 'All in all an interesting look into how much AI tokens can end up costing. Even if the numbers we are kicking around are not accurate, I do think they can give a feel for the costs. And even charging these fees ($4m a day) the AI companies are still burning dumpsters full of cash.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'When something really big goes down, it pulls everything around it with it. But some things will eventually bob to the surface. In Apple’s case, that 71 M volume and relatively small pullback is saying that Apple longs are in exactly the right place at the right time. Still, we’ve got about 26 months before things really turn around. I’d advise keeping that seat belt buckled….'
  • Joseph Bland on Errol Brandt: Sam Altman says memory is wasted in your Apple devices - 'Hi, Richard. Great question! It immediately made me think about supply vs demand, and how matching demand is STILL a perennial problem for Apple. A $5 T market cap is just the beginning….'
  • Greg Lippert on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Don’t forget Not lighting cash on fire for potential speculative future gains on frontier models.'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Nvidia is down ~3% YTD. They gave up all their gains for the year. Market cap now ~4.38T. SpaceX is now below the IPO price. CoreWeave is down ~51% for the last month. Makes me feel pretty smug that Apple is only down ~1.5% for the day and +27% YTD.'
  • Hap Allen on Mark Gurman: Apple curtails AI use by its engineers - 'Ordinary users like myself experience AI as free, or with a small monthly fee, nearly so. I’ve no idea how much tokens are costing corporations. This is what Errol Brandt has been saying, i.e. that there will be a backlash by companies on account the expense, not to mention the privacy issues. This is a great opportunity for Apple to sell a lot of Macs to businesses, enabling much of their AI needs to be covered on-device, while not “leaving the premises.”'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I call it a “Red See” day because all I see across the markets is a sea of red. Personally, I think Apple has held up well following the release of September quarter earnings, December quarter guidance and now today’s selloff. The company is extraordinarily well run, has ample cash reserves and is growing revenue. Apple also has one of the most valuable brand names on the planet. Markets dynamics are always changing while Apple finds new ways to innovate and grow. It’s best to watch Apple at least as much as we watch the market.'
  • Bill Donahue on Premarket: Apple is green - '“The Dow Jones Industrial Average was set for another strong day on Thursday” Spoken perhaps a tad too soon.'
  • Neal Guttenberg on Mark Gurman: Apple curtails AI use by its engineers - 'Don, I forgot to annualize the data. Thanks for picking up on my mistake. That can be some real money then. I am guessing that what Richard said in a later post is true as well that this is being done to get a better handle on how things need to be budgeted.'
  • Bill Donahue on Mark Gurman: Apple curtails AI use by its engineers - 'Apparently Apple employs about 21,000 engineers (which doesn’t include the ~44,000 in IT or 4,600 in project management positions, out of the ~244,000 total observed employee profiles in a July headcount): https://www.unifygtm.com/insights/headcount/apple Which would work out to a little more than $4 million per day in savings, cutting LLM use costs from $300/day to $100/day. Which works out to $1 billion, if you go with 5 days/wk and 48 wks/year (likely conservative, given that Apple engineers probably don’t work bankers’ hours/days). My guess, though, is that a lot of people in IT are/were using AI also.'
  • Bill Donahue on Mark Gurman: Apple curtails AI use by its engineers - 'Translation: “After trying out incorporating unlimited LLM use into our work, we’ve realized it’s not worth the expense in any way we measure it.” Which is, surprise surprise, the same thing almost every major company has discovered about unlimited LLM-based AI use. Which is why the financials for AI hyperscalers are never going to work in any way, and why there’s probably going to be a glut of chips in the not-too-distant future, when financial rationality returns to tech stocks. And that’s when I hope John Ternus says to the chip makers, “Remember when you held us over a barrel, despite that we’ve been your biggest and best customer since long before the AI mania and were obviously going to continue to be after the hype died?”'
  • Fred Stein on Mark Gurman: Apple curtails AI use by its engineers - 'Gurman = grains of salt. I’d bet that the policy change, $300 to $200, applies generically. No doubt some engineers such as chip designers, testing, and software can make the case to spend more, maybe much more.'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Blood in the streets. Tesla is down 10%. Oracle just made a new low. DJT touched$3.80, almost a penny stock. Volumes are all running high. This could be good. A sort of realignment. I’ve seen it suggested several places that if there is a slow down in data centers that could lower memory prices which would help lots of companies. Apple is only down 1.25%. We’re getting off easy.'
  • Robert Stack on Errol Brandt: Sam Altman says memory is wasted in your Apple devices - 'You meant Altman, Zuckerberg, or Musk right? Poor Elon may be busy right now looking for another state to move to…'
  • Richard Gayle on Mark Gurman: Apple curtails AI use by its engineers - 'My guess is that a lot of the budgeted AI money was actually not being used. So, to reclaim that budget, and get a better idea of its specific needs, Apple lowers the amount given to all employees but also allows those in need to ask for more, demonstrate the need and get it. The Apple gets a very good idea of its AI needs, gets a more accurate budget and saves some money.'
  • Richard Gayle on Errol Brandt: Sam Altman says memory is wasted in your Apple devices - 'There is a wafer shortage because the AI memory chips need so many. Apple has a partnership with GlobalWafers in Texas, providing wafers for Apple’s partners, like TI and TSMC. Phase 1 is producing about 350,000 wafers a month and that is expected to double next year. I wonder if Apple could also send some of those wafers to help companies having a harder time getting wafers? And get a better deal for things like memory?'
  • Raj Pandey on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Market was up 1500 points yesterday and as of noon today, it’s down 1400. Go figure! Compared to a few others, we’re not down as much. At 345, we’re at a 5.0 trillion valuation while NVDA has been hammered down to 4.4 trillion.'
  • Daniel Epstein on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Not likely to spike up and stay today given market sell off. Apple down 3.71 at 11:45 EST.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Errol Brandt: Sam Altman says memory is wasted in your Apple devices - 'Apple is and will always be the Lone Wolf as they value a customer’s privacy. Every other Big Tech Company monetizes that personal data for their own purposes and now they want everyone to cede their privacy to them so they can store it all in their own data center clouds. Apple will never go along with that business model and once consumers understand how Apple aggressively protects users privacy as opposed to Altman and these various LLM’s, there will be a backlash similar to what just happened in the midterm elections. Hard to decide who is worse: Altman or Zuckerberg?'
  • Don Donofrio on Mark Gurman: Apple curtails AI use by its engineers - 'Neal – Interesting idea to guess at the savings. Just for fun, let’s say that they can save $200 per employee (based on the $300 down to $100 mentioned in the article). So that is then $32m _every day_, which is $960 a month. $12b a year is really money even in Apple terms.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Mark Gurman: Apple curtails AI use by its engineers - '”Unlike the air its engineers breathe, Apple’s AI is not free.” Neither are the engineers. The balancing act is the cost per unit of work product. Sounds like Apple has been researching the best cost per unit of work product method, human or AI, and has made a determination.'
  • Neal Guttenberg on Mark Gurman: Apple curtails AI use by its engineers - 'If I had to guess who was Gurman’s source, it would be the design department, if this really is a thing. So I wonder if the curb on AI usage is more related to personal usage than for professional usage. Secondly, unless this is becoming a huge line item, I am wondering how much does this really save Apple vs pissing off its employees. Apple has around 160K employees. If they save $100 per employee,(which probably way overestimates the savings) that is 16 million dollars. Not inconsequential but, when looked at related to total apple revenues/earnings, not a big percentage at all(more of a rounding error). Maybe it is on a department by department basis and related to people wasting AI usage. Not really enough information to tell what this really is about.'
  • Neal Guttenberg on Mark Gurman: Apple curtails AI use by its engineers - 'David, Funniest thing I have read all week. Thanks for that. Good thing I wasn’t drinking any coffee while I was reading it.'