Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'BTW, Donna still has the 2 AAPL pre-split shares she won as a prize from Apple back in the mid-1980’s, when she sold computers for an Apple-only dealership….'
on Horace Dediu expects iPhone prices to go up $100 - 'I watched the clip you linked to and, admittedly, she did not make any direct connection between Apple, antitrust, and memory prices. She still argues for breaking up big tech companies that have too much power and instituting some sort of consumer protections. Given that AOC was instrumental in chasing Amazon out of her district with the end result that rather than having a lot of tech workers her district is now a hub for sex workers, I would take any policy pronouncement of hers with a big grain of salt. She’s a poster girl for the law of unintended consequences.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Which is why (A) Donna and myself are now long term 100% Apple investors and (B) why these attempts to panic folks out of AAPL are having less impact as time goes on; that is, the relative numbers of long term Apple investors is growing as Apple buys up the shares of AAPL sold by short term traders. There’s a reason Apple is up 261,000% over its lifetime….'
on Horace Dediu expects iPhone prices to go up $100 - 'But for those with lower end phones and an annual (2 year, 3 year, etc) replacement cycle, releasing some phones while postponing others would not be favorable for them.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'The fun thing is, Gregg, that Apple got to buy back some of the undervalued AAPL as well. That’s more ROI for the Apple longs…. (When a company uses undervalued net cash to buy back undervalued stock, it decreases the float, which increases the percentage of ownership of each share remaining. It’s literally a company investing in itself on behalf of its long term owners. Of course, the company needs to keep growing as well, but that’s what Apple is surprisingly good at.)'
on Horace Dediu expects iPhone prices to go up $100 - 'To your point about cartels: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron Sued for Alleged Memory Price-Fixing To your other point, I think Apple has better flexibility using its capital to loan money to multiple companies for their foundry construction. Apple gets the interest from those loans, as well as the principle eventually, while able to often claim first dibs on the chips. It can then play those foundries off each other in ways to get better prices as well as have surge capacity it would not have if it built the foundries itself. And it can get access to new technologies instead of having to spend the capex itself. The problem now is the likely collusion of the memory makers and the deep pockets of AI companies. That will pass and Apple will be in a better position then.'
on Horace Dediu expects iPhone prices to go up $100 - 'Hi, Gregg. I dislike the idea of giving the Chinese Communist Party even more power over Apple. I like better the idea that Apple rolls their own. That said, mine is at best a long term solution. Horace points that out as well in this same article: “These investments take many years to bear fruit. A new fab would take five years before the first wafer, 10 years before high volume yield, and 15 years or more before cost competitiveness with incumbent DRAM vendors. It may not ever become profitable. China is 12 years in and its state-sponsored memory industry may only be reaching profitability due to the market imbalance just experienced.” In the meantime, just the act of moving in that direction should put some needed fear in the minds of the would-be cartel. That said, I don’t think Apple should make this move as a shot across the bow. I think they should follow through to the bitter end and completely sink ‘em.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Looks thike SCOTUS will hear Apple’s appeal of the Epic lawsuit. The one where Apple was found in contempt. That could be very helpful for Apple. Best lawyers in the world.'
on Horace Dediu expects iPhone prices to go up $100 - 'Horace does not share my opinion. “There has never been a situation where a commodity shortage has resulted in a perpetual undersupply (unless a cartel forms–and even that is hard to keep going indefinitely.] The reason commodities balance in price is by their definition. Unless memories can be differentiated on performance, their price will float. If their price will float, high prices will attract investment and thus production and thus a glut and prices will fall.” It’s the ‘unless a cartel forms’ exception Horace brackets that worries me. The price isn’t going up because it’s more expensive to make RAM: The massive profit increases prove that it’s just greed. And we’ve seen what the Hydrocarbon Cartel can do over decades. Besides, Apple of all companies can afford some longer term insurance. And even a small move in that direction could break this proto-cartel up before it does any more damage. Besdes, what’s the worst that can happen? Apple has a segment thst doesn’t make a direct profit? Is that so horrible if they also make themselves less vulnerable to being made a hostage?'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'It’s a good day for the market and a very good day for Apple! The shares are currently up $6.26 at $288. All four major indexes are in the green in early afternoon trading. AMD is trading up 7.17% at $578.16 and Vertiv Holdings, a data center supplier, is up 7.12% at $328.84. I’m looking forward to seeing what happens as we move through the afternoon.'
on Horace Dediu expects iPhone prices to go up $100 - 'I went and looked at what she actually said. AOC never mentions Apple at all. The original reporting from Fox News, which has the video, added Apple into the mix, not AOC, likely conflating what she said with Apple as clickbait. She mentioned the impact on laptop prices in general BECAUSE of AI companies and the need to regulate those companies along with their data centers. She actually gave, to my mind, pretty reasonable and extemporaneous responses focussed on the impacts of AI on local communities and the ramifications throughout the industry on laptop prices (not like the more unreasonable flayings of Bernie). I may not fully agree, but many people would. But she was not talking about Apple. (As an aside, this Fox reporter, Nicholas Ballasy, is making a place for himself with these hallway ‘hit’ pieces. He is the same one Massie went after hard the other day.) Fox News cherry-picked and misrepresented what she said in order to get more hits. And that likely worked as every other major right-leaning media (ie NY Post, Washington Examiner) picked up on it, often more directly implying she meant Apple. The old telephone game.'
on Premarket: Apple was red, turned green - 'Red at the Open, the bullishly Green thereafter with a slight dip just before the Close. Volume shows interest, while AAPL continues to rise, is declining. I interpret that as the big boys got their fill of super cheap AAPL below $277.50. Currently, AAPL is up over $12 since the big boys stopped buying.'
on Horace Dediu expects iPhone prices to go up $100 - '“It felt like he was shaken. It sounded unprecedented to him, and he wasn’t in his element.” On the contrary, he is indeed in his element, which is why Apple will do much better than other tech companies whose CEO is not as skilled as TC. Also I don’t think he was shaken. I believe he saw it coming a mile away, second only to the management of TSMC. I believe other CEO’s also saw it coming, but did not have the means (as Apple did) to do something about it (longterm contracts). But there was only so much TC could do. No one knew how long Apple could hold off the price increases until the time came. And it came. It may had come a little sooner than TC wanted, but it was no surprise. Footnote: Having said that, I do understand that Horace follows Apple much closer than I do, with much greater insight. Just wanted to add my 2 cents worth.'
on Horace Dediu expects iPhone prices to go up $100 - 'Getting even. What if Apple’s efforts to get Chinese memory producers approved is real. Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix lose their number one long term customer, AND their gross margins. In the meantime Apple designs its own memory, foregoing industry standards to improve performance and has Intel and/or Global Foundry produce them in the US. In that scenario I could see Apple knocking on SK Hynix’s door for the #3 spot. What would the trio above do to prevent that from happening. After all, data center construction at current rates aren’t sustainable. I give them 2 years max before the roof caves in, and the floor crumbles beneath their feet.'
on Horace Dediu expects iPhone prices to go up $100 - 'Question for those with knowledge of memory chip fabbing: To my knowledge, Intel does not make any memory chips. But could they? And could they ramp up any production quickly? If yes, this would be a wonderful win for Apple and also help fund Intel’s recovery. Of course a blow to Intel’s corporate ego, but survival from the cash flow could help them in their ongoing evolution.'
on Horace Dediu expects iPhone prices to go up $100 - '”They teach good stuff in bartending school.” She failed the part that says, “Don’t drink your product”.'
on Horace Dediu expects iPhone prices to go up $100 - 'Now I had a thought. Apple split up its release of the iPhones, coming out with the Premium ones in the Fall, then the cheaper models early next year. What if Apple raises the prices of the Pro models, maybe even a little more than they need to, since the early adopters who buy those may not care as much about price? But this might allow Apple to sell the lower-end phones without raising the price as much, if at all. By doing this right, they could keep their overall margins the same (and adding in the new Fold iPhone might help even more), which would then eat up Android at the low end, increasing market share. Along with Apple AI, it could lead to another upgrade supercycle.'
on Horace Dediu expects iPhone prices to go up $100 - 'Inflation is in the cards. We still – barely – have an independent Fed. But we also used to have an independent Supreme Court. I’m a proponent of Apple getting into the memory manufacturing business and cutting out the middleman. Horace suggests that Apple will get even, and that’s one way to do it. Hey, if they can design their own processors, starting up a memory plant or six should be duck soup. Maybe in the US for good measure.'
on Horace Dediu expects iPhone prices to go up $100 - 'Of course AOC has weighed in saying that Apple should be broken up because of the just announced memory price hikes. They teach good stuff in bartending school. What a maroon as Bugs Bunny used to say.'
on Horace Dediu expects iPhone prices to go up $100 - 'It’s going to hit the whole industry, Apple is just the highest profile but will weather it the best. No doubt.'
on Bloomberg takes Apple's side on price increases - 'Bart, I don’t think people are surprised at the rest of the industry raising prices but I do think they are surprised that Apple is raising prices, even though TC mapped it out earlier in the year. Apple has been so good the past couple of years at not raising prices, especially on its base models, that even though they were warned, I guess they were hoping that Apple and TC could pull a rabbit out of the hat on this one.'
on Ransomers grabbed Apple files from leaky Tata, posted them on the dark web - 'Leaks and lack of control from this country is just another day in the park. Nothing surprising. Corporate culture overall is weak. Expect more pain to come. To diversify to India was a mistake from Day 1. Any corporate knows that investing in this country is 99% assured of loss position based on my prior experiences of MNCs.'
on Ransomers grabbed Apple files from leaky Tata, posted them on the dark web - 'I suspect they did.'
on Premarket: Apple was green, turned red - 'Although the S&P 500 index rose 1.18% today.only 45.43% of components ended higher on the day. Leading the index higher, Corning leaped 15.67% to $255.69 after reaching a new all-time high of $258.80 in intra-day activity. IBM jumped $6.37 or 2.35% to $278.00. The shares remain below the all-time high of #332.46 set at the beginning of this month. Apple dropped $2.04 to end the session at $281.74. On to Tuesday!'
on Ransomers grabbed Apple files from leaky Tata, posted them on the dark web - 'I’m still surprised that Apple apparently hadn’t done a full security system review before they ever even partnered with Tata.'
on Bloomberg takes Apple's side on price increases - 'You’re welcome Neal. I agree, but why is this (price hikes in response to ever increasing memory costs) surprising to literally anyone thinking about how businesses can cope with rising costs?'
on Ransomers grabbed Apple files from leaky Tata, posted them on the dark web - 'Oh, you don’t have to worry about that, the entire Tata Group is already on notice from Apple about this. I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple is seriously considering putting Tata on its probationary or restricted list until Tata (and probably the Indian government) can show it has conducted a thorough investigation, identified root causes (including people, systems, and vulnerabilities) and fired, plugged, and strengthened its defenses, including switching over to Mac based systems for iPhone production management. If Tata can’t be a trusted and reliable manufacturing partner (see previous Tata data breaches within the past 6-7 years), then even with its tendrils pulling string inside the India government, it doesn’t deserve to remain a supplier for Apple. Apple should threaten or expand its Foxconn and Pegatron factories instead as leverage to get the Indian government to crack down on Tata and hold it accountable, lest it lose considerable face over an Indian company unable to maintain data security of all things with now one of the biggest employers and source of pride for the Modi government. Of course, this is much too logical to be implemented without extreme greasing of palms throughout.'
on Why Apple is asking Trump for access to Chinese chips - 'A side argument is that since Chinese OEM’s can utilize cheaper (for now) CXMT and YMCT memory, that gives them a competitive price advantage in China and Rest of Asia Pacific as well as India and other regions. Apple could and should argue that getting access to cheaper Chinese memory, assuming it’s certified compatible and free of any National Security concerns, allows Apple to even the playing field against Chinese subsidized smartphone makers, helps Apple products avoid excessive price increases and maintain cost competitiveness, and keep generating solid global revenues which in turn keeps up $20B to $30B in taxes coming into the US treasury. Maybe Apple could moderate iPhone price increases and ascribe that to this administration’s help in keeping those increases less. Of course, one wonders why Trump doesn’t invoke the War Powers act and force Micron (and maybe Samsung) to increase production or hold new fabs of LPDDR5X or future LPDDX6X memory as a national security and US consumer issue? I mean the US should be a world leader in memory chips too, right, and have it be less expensive or at least cost competitive for US consumers and companies than those produced in Korea, Japan, and China? After all that, guess who will be paying a lot more for ANY sophisticated electronics and AI running in weapons systems, aircraft, smart drones, and smart munitions? Yep, the Department of Defense, the US Government, and of course, we the taxpayers. AI’s cost inflation will soon impact the US budget spending leading the Republicans majority to try even further to rebalance by cutting social programs – again prioritizing things vs people. Sigh, is my thinking wrong? And why hasn’t anyone else foreseen this?'


