Recent Comments

  • Greg Lippert on Meet the market for Apple Intelligence - 'That’s more or less how I made my living. Pre-AI of course.'
  • Bart Yee on Trump, Xi, Huang, Cook - 'https://apple.news/AMSQCyOW7TyemGN-3O8ir1g Why Apple may be the one Big Tech company to hit its climate goals in the AI era As rivals pour billions into power-hungry data centers, Apple has kept its emissions moving in the opposite direction.'
  • Greg Lippert on Trump, Xi, Huang, Cook - 'hopefully its a limited time job, as no other child-president will need this kind of constant ass-kissing.'
  • Bart Yee on Trump, Xi, Huang, Cook - 'From the article: “LATAM’s largest smartphone market, Brazil, saw shipments decline by 11% YoY in H1 2026, driven by shrinking domestic production & more cautious consumer spending. Samsung & Motorola, the two largest brands in Brazil, together captured 73% of the smartphone market & led the rankings for the top five best-selling smartphones. Chinese brands are disrupting the Brazilian market w/extended warranties & steep price markdowns, supported by local manufacturing partners to reduce taxation costs. Brazil’s smartphone shipments fell 11% YoY in H1 2026, driven by rising memory costs, reduced domestic production, & cautious consumer spending. Samsung, the leading brand, grew 10% YoY, followed by Motorola, which increased by 1% YoY. Xiaomi remained third but declined 34% YoY, pressured by weaker global supply. Apple emerged as one of the strongest performers in H1 2026, increasing domestic production by 7% YoY and market share by 19% YoY. The arrival of Chinese brands such as Jovi (Vivo in Brazil), HONOR, OPPO, & realme has intensified competition, while their combined share fell from 26% in H1 2025 to 20% in H1 2026. Brazil Smartphone Market Shipment Shares by OEM, H1 2026 vs H1 2025 Source: Counterpoint Research Market Monitor, H1 2026 The top five best‑selling smartphone models accounted for 29% of the overall Brazilian market in H1 2026. The Samsung Galaxy A07 4G, which has remained in the top position since December 2025, supported by strong supply and competitive pricing, accounted for 8.3% of the overall market in the first half of the year. Devices priced below $249 represented 78% of the overall Brazilian market. The $100-$249 segment grew 37% YoY, reaching 61% in H1 2026, driven in part by a sharp 50% decline in the <$99 price band and by price hikes. https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/brazil-smartphone-shipments-decline-11-yoy-in-signaling-potential-double-digit'
  • Bart Yee on Trump, Xi, Huang, Cook - 'From Counterpoint’s Q2 regional LATAM report: “Apple shipments increased 5% YoY. This performance was driven by the brand’s decision to absorb the price hike, alongside consistent demand for the iPhone 17 Pro Max. The iPhone 17e continued to build momentum during Q2 following its launch in late March, while legacy models sustained steady demand. Apple leads LATAM’s high‑end and premium price segments (>$600) w/around a 51% share, while Samsung stands as the only significant competitor, reaching ~40% of the segment.” Point from Brazil report: Notice Apple has a 7% share in Brazil, & “increased domestic production 7%”. I didn’t recall Apple had any manufacturing in Brazil or why, but it does, it’s to avoid heavy import taxation much like India. Here’s Gemini: “Yes, Apple assembles & manufactures select iPhone models in Brazil through its partner Foxconn. Production Details Location: Foxconn operates an assembly plant in Jundiaí, São Paulo. Models: Local production historically covers standard and base models, including the iPhone 13, 14, 15, 16, & iPhone 16e. Purpose: Assembling devices locally allows Apple to bypass heavier import taxes & navigate shifting international trade tariffs. Identification: Boxes for units made locally feature an “Assembled in Brazil” label & specific regional model identifiers.” ((Apple has been assembling iPhones in Brazil since 2011, meaning operations have been active for 15 years.)) Is Production Expanding? Yes, Apple’s manufacturing footprint in Brazil is undergoing a significant strategic expansion. Historically, the facility in Jundiaí, São Paulo, only assembled older or entry-level base models exclusively for the local Brazilian market to bypass high domestic import taxes. However, recent shifts highlight major expansions in capacity and scope: Assembling on Day One: Rather than waiting months after a launch to start local assembly, Apple began manufacturing newer models like the iPhone 16 and the iPhone 16e in Brazil concurrently with their global release cycles. Moving Into Pro Models: Brazil’s telecom regulator, Anatel, granted the necessary certifications to assemble the iPhone 16 series locally, paving the way for Apple to manufacture high-end Pro models in Brazil for the first time. A Shift Toward Exporting: Industry reports indicate that Apple & Foxconn have upgraded machinery & industrial processes to scale up volume. The goal is to potentially export Brazil-assembled iPhones to the U.S. Tariff Mitigation: This expansion is highly motivated by international trade changes. U.S. tariffs on imports from China (34%) and India (26%) have spiked, while goods imported from Brazil face a much lower 10% tariff, making it a highly attractive manufacturing alternative. While Apple publicly maintains that its primary focus remains supplying the local South American market, supply chain data heavily underlines Brazil’s growing importance as a critical backup hub in Apple’s global diversification strategy. ((Don’t let the current administration hear about this)) Apple doing long long range planning and waiting for the market to catch up to Apple.'
  • Bart Yee on Trump, Xi, Huang, Cook - 'Absolutely have Cook continue to placate Trump, Ternus has got much better things to do with his time, and it already shows.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'I am neither recommending or endorsing Broadcom as an investment. I do follow the company in part because it’s an important Apple supplier. I’ve been quite curious why generally conservative Morningstar has such a high Fair Value Estimate – $650 – for an enterprise that closed today at $350.36. https://apple.news/A7o4-ppmJSoScDyHLpoqNcQ I think this article from Morningstar is good reading for anyone interested in a key Apple supplier, chip makers and the tech market in general. Personally I do like the company and I’ve been fascinated by how and by how much it has grown.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'https://omdia.tech.informa.com/pr/2026/sep/mainland-china-pc-market-grows-11percent-in-q2-shipments-forecast-to-fall-6percent-in-2026 Omdia: Mainland China PC market grows 11% in Q2, shipments forecast to fall 6% in 2026 September 22, 2026 Mainland China’s PC shipments grew 11% year-over-year (YoY) in 2Q26 to 11.4 million units, according to the latest Omdia data. Desktop shipments surged 42%, offsetting a 2% decline in notebook shipments, with the two categories accounting for 4.3 million and 7.1 million units, respectively. Meanwhile, tablet shipments in mainland China declined 13% to 8.0 million units, amid weaker demand and ongoing supply challenges. Omdia’s latest forecast projects mainland China’s PC shipments will decline 6% in 2026 to 39.7 million units. Tablet shipments are also expected to fall 10% to 32.5 million units for the full year. The mainland China PC market outperformed expectations in 2Q, primarily supported by strong commercial demand, with shipments in the segment rising 29%. Growth was driven in large part by a surge in refresh activity linked to China’s XinChuang (Information Technology Application Innovation) initiative, which supports the adoption of domestic IT technologies. In contrast, the consumer segment remained relatively weak, with shipments declining 2%. “Commercial PC demand in mainland China, particularly from large enterprises and government organizations, continues to support growth in the broader market,” said Emma Xu, Senior Analyst at Omdia. “Consumer demand has weakened this year following the fading impact of government subsidies and rising prices. However, inventory stockpiling to lock in lower prices and mitigate the risk of further cost increases helped prevent a sharper decline in the consumer segment in 2Q. “The tablet market faces greater challenges after several years of growth. Consumer demand is weakening, while vendors have less scope to support sales through promotional activity. The market is entering a more mature and stable phase, with penetration at historically high levels and demand increasingly shifting toward replacement cycles rather than first-time ownership,” added Xu. For full-year 2026, Omdia expects mainland China’s PC market to decline 6% YoY, with consumer shipments falling 10%. Growth in the commercial segment is expected to partially offset weakness in the broader market. Meanwhile, the tablet market is forecast to contract 10% in 2026, reflecting weak demand and continued supply constraints. People’s Republic of China (mainland) desktop and notebook shipments and annual growth Omdia PC Market Pulse: Q2 2026 Vendor -shipments – share 2025 shipments – 2025 share Annual growth Lenovo 3.7 – 32%, 3.4 – 34% +7% Huawei 1.8 – 16%, 1.0 – 10% +82% iSoftStone 1.4 – 12%, 0.8 – 8% +71% Apple 1.2 – 10%, 0.7 – 7% +63% Asus 0.8 – 7%, 0.9 – 9% -5% Others 2.5 – 22%, 3.4 – 33% -26% Total 11.4 – 100%, 10.2- 100% 11% People’s Republic of China (mainland) tablets shipments and annual growth Omdia PC Market Pulse: Q2 2026 Vendor 2026 shipments – share 2025 shipments – share Annual growth Huawei 2.1 – 26%, 2.5 – 28% -18% Apple 2.0 – 25%, 2.2 – 24% -10% Lenovo 1.2- 15%, 0.8 – 8% 63% Xiaomi 0.7 – 9%, 1.2 – 13% -37% HONOR 0.6 – 7%, 0.8 – 9% -29% Others 1.4 – 18%, 1.8 – 19% -19% Total 8.0 – 100%, 9.3 – 100% -13% Apple doing ok for both PC’s and Tablets in Q2 2026.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'Did anyone else notice the exceedingly low volume today? As of 5:25 PDT, AAPL trading volume is 24.36 M. That’s 46.2% of average volume, folks. Less than half! And after hours is at 0.00%…. AAPL closed down 0.33% at $335.92.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Yahoo!Finance: John Ternus should be a happy man - 'I’m liken’ this guy! I also hope Tim Cook remains active and involved as executive chairman of the company for a while. There is a continuing leadership change as well as a generational change with those now moving into senior executive roles at Apple. In my view as a shareholder and Apple product enthusiast the transitions are going as well as can be expected. These changes aren’t easy. I do like I I see and read about John Ternus.'
  • David Emery on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'It would be A Very Good Thing if 6g wasn’t as dependent on Qualcomm Standards Essential Patents as previous cellular technologies. (Me, I always thought ‘standards essential patent’ – a piece of commercial intellectual property locked into a patent that earns the owner licensing fees – is an oxymoron. SEP license fees are a non-trivial part of Qualcomm’s profits.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'That last point about: “…FCC enacted a strict ban on new foreign consumer-grade routers and mobile hotspots. This has disrupted the supply chain for consumer cellular hardware (like 5G gateways and battery-operated hotspots). Manufacturers are currently forced to reshape their corporate governance and move cellular assembly pipelines directly into the U.S. to gain FCC compliance..” What better time to disrupt the 5G gateways, US home Cellular WiFi and hot spot markets than to mark a comeback of the Apple AirPort Pro with built in Apple Silicon C-series modems, wired and cellular connectivity, encryption, Apple security, and customized use as a home or business AI hub?'
  • Bart Yee on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'A Gemini dive into modems: “what is happening with current and future cellular modem standards and technology?” The cellular world is moving through a major generational transition. The industry has officially entered the era of 5G-Advanced (the bridge to the future) while actively finalizing the technical foundations for 6G. The layout of current and future cellular modem standards and technologies highlights what is happening under the hood. The Present: 5G-Advanced (3GPP Releases 18 & 19) The industry is currently deploying 5G-Advanced, governed by 3GPP Release 18 (which recently froze and entered commercial networks) and Release 19. Instead of focusing purely on raw download speeds, modern modems are solving real-world efficiency and coverage limits: • Uplink Carrier Aggregation (CA) & MIMO: Modems are radically improving upload performance. By combining multiple frequency bands (FDD + TDD), current flagship modems handle the massive upstream traffic required for 4K live streaming, AI-assisted cloud computing, and cloud backups. • Integrated AI/ML in the Air Interface: The latest modems from vendors like Qualcomm use on-device AI to predict beam management, manage handovers, and optimize power consumption. The modem dynamically adapts to your movement to keep signal drop-offs to a minimum. • L1/L2 Inter-Cell Mobility: This technical upgrade significantly cuts down handover latency. Instead of your phone lagging when switching from one cell tower to another, the transition happens at the physical hardware layer without needing a heavy network reconfiguration. • Satellite Connectivity (NTN): Non-Terrestrial Network (NTN) support allows standard cellular modems to fall back onto satellite bands for emergency messaging and basic data when entirely out of tower range. The Future: The Road to 6G (3GPP Release 20+ & IMT-2030) The formal standardization of 6G is officially underway. Organizations like the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) have established the IMT-2030 framework, and 3GPP is using Release 20 to conduct early 6G foundational studies. Commercial 6G modems are expected to hit the market around 2029 or 2030. Future modems will introduce several paradigm shifts: Technology Pillar -> What It Means for Future Modems Centimeter-Wave / New Mid-Band • Modems will expand into the 7 GHz to 15 GHz spectrum (sandwiched between sub-6GHz and mmWave) to provide fiber-like speeds over wide areas. ISAC (Integrated Sensing & Communication) • The cellular signal won’t just carry data; the modem and towers will act like a radar. The network can “sense” the physical environment, mapping out objects, movement, and distances. AI-Native Air Interface • While 5G-Advanced patches AI into existing frameworks, 6G modems will be fundamentally designed around machine learning. The waveforms themselves will be dynamically designed by AI to combat local signal interference. Sub-Millisecond Latency • 6G targets true hyper-reliable low-latency communication (HRLLC), aiming to reliably drop latency below 1 millisecond for spatial computing and real-time digital twinning. ⚠️ A Crucial Side Note: Geopolitics & Hardware If you are looking at hardware, keep in mind that the FCC enacted a strict ban on new foreign consumer-grade routers and mobile hotspots. This has disrupted the supply chain for consumer cellular hardware (like 5G gateways and battery-operated hotspots). Manufacturers are currently forced to reshape their corporate governance and move cellular assembly pipelines directly into the U.S. to gain FCC compliance for future models.'
  • Bart Yee on Yahoo!Finance: John Ternus should be a happy man - 'Same thing happened with the iPhone 8 and X, skipping the iPhone 9 name altogether. Oddly, they did add the XS/XR as a generation before starting the 11, 12, etc. counter which is why we are short one number and not at the iPhone 19 now. As to what the design will look like, who knows. We could throw out some familiar options along with a radical design: 1) top and bottom glass design around a titanium or hardened anodized aluminum chassis – currently said to be off the table. 2) a back panel transparent design showing or displaying some of the inner internal workings and layout – for the real techies out there. Could be a bold design statement move but unlikely. For fun, it could trigger a bunch of imitators, especially Xiaomi. 3) I’ve always advocated for some type of Steve Jobs special edition model, what better time to bring it? Maybe with polished titanium or carbon fiber highlights, signature edition in the Camera plateau to make them instantly recognizable. There’s lots of room there to add more features or detailing. 4) aside from current specific colors, consider pearl or metallic versions if it can be done really well. Same for glossy, matte, or polished finishes. Standout colors has figured in a lot of Apple sales. 5) when and if the battery technology allow all day battery life, bring back the iPhone Mini in a base and Pro model. Tease it a year early or bring back for iPhone 21. Surprised the Android imitators never tried it. 6) bring on the Duo Pro within 2 years and charge $2299 for it. Add in the Duo Pro Max the size of the 11” iPad Air. Charge $2499 for that Or 7) bring on the Foldable iPad of any size.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'A 6G upgrade to cellular services would be a huge mobile upgrade catalyst. I’m thankful that little ol’ Spokane is always on the front lines of cellular upgrades. If 6G is as powerful as I believe it will be, I will cancel my fiber WiFi. I’m not using its capabilities any way.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - '”Glad Apple will be phasing out Qualcomm chips by mid to late 2027.” Actually Bart, I think this extension takes affect in Match 2027 and most likely has an option for an extension when it expires. That would the Apple way. This may be a signal for 6G launch and has more to do with that transition, than needing time to complete Apple’s 5G version.'
  • Bart Yee on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'Qualcomm secures extension to global patent licensing pact with Apple Reuters “Qualcomm (QCOM.O) said ​on Thursday Apple (AAPL.O) has extended its patent-licensing agreement with ‌the chip designer, even as the iPhone maker looks to cut its reliance on the company’s modem chips. The semiconductor company did not give a ​timeline for the latest move. The current agreement ends on ​March 31, 2027, with an option to extend it ⁠by two years. Both Apple and Qualcomm did not respond ​to requests for comment.” “Even though the deal keeps Apple tied to ​some of Qualcomm’s patent portfolio, the chip designer had said in July that revenue from Apple products would decline faster than expected. Qualcomm’s licensing business accounted for ​roughly 15% of total revenue in the June quarter. The company ​had said it was banking on growth in its data center business to ‌offset ⁠the lost revenue from Apple in 2027. In 2023, Qualcomm signed a deal with Apple to supply 5G chips until at least 2026, at a time when the iPhone maker was facing increased challenges ​in China and ​looked to shore ⁠up its supply chains elsewhere. The partnership has been shaped by a 2019 settlement that ended a ​two-year global legal battle over wireless-patent royalties and ​modem-chip supply. ⁠They announced the truce in April 2019 as a U.S. jury trial between them was beginning in San Diego.” Excerpt From https://apple.news/AA_ouMo0CQnabiQCzJqqdEw This material may be protected by copyright. Hmmm, IMO patent-licensing Qualcomm’s IP to further develop Apple Silicon C-series modems is the best reason. But not only to further refine the current and near term 5G/satellite connectivity C2 and C3 modems, but also to be developing the next Gen 6G modems and additional capabilities. Win for Apple, small win for Qualcomm as licensing is much less revenue than selling modem chips that have onerous finished product based value royalties. Glad Apple will be phasing out Qualcomm chips by mid to late 2027. Another way to control the supply stack, improve performance, and guard margins.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Yahoo!Finance: John Ternus should be a happy man - 'This may not be the first “next” iPhone rumor, but it certainly won’t be the last From The Street “Apple just released the iPhone 18 Pro and its first foldable iPhone, but the next big iPhone rumor is already giving investors something to watch. Apple could reportedly skip the iPhone 19 and jump directly to an iPhone 20 in 2027, marking the 20th anniversary of the original iPhone. The expected anniversary edition could have a radically different look with curved glass, thinner bezels, and a display that looks almost seamless. Apple has not confirmed the iPhone 20 or any of these rumored specifications. Nor we they.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'BTW, here’s a link to some charts that remind me a little of Horace’s charts: https://stocks.apple.com/AjCthMe9TQnGhWk75a7bcWQ'
  • Stephen Gordon on Postcard from Toulouse - 'Loved France so much, though I went in November when it was cold. Happy trails! P.S. Nice pic!'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'The bottom line: Both Apple and Nvidia deserve their lofty market caps due to their truly massive earnings potential, not just presently, but into the future. But only one of the two, Apple, continues to be consistently undervalued, thus still permitting its buybacks to add value to it’s still-quickly-shrinking stock float. Just as has been the case for approaching the last 2 decades….'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple's market cap keeps bouncing off $5 trillion - 'There’s a reason the market cap is lower but the price is higher; there are less shares of AAPL to go around. The company, PER REMAINING SHARE, is more valuable because EPS is going up. Many years ago, on Robert Paul Leitao’s Braeburn Group, where I posted previous to Apple 2.0, I posited that AAPL would follow EPS, and so it has. Yes, it’s approaching earnings of $10/share yet again, but this isn’t the first time; every time shares split, EPS splits as well. So to calculate true EPS growth, you need to adjust for stock splits. That is one of the primary reasons I’ve been what some might say is obsessively focused on stock buybacks from the moment they began, back in 2013: I realized the incredible value represented by Apple buying back undervalued AAPL for a long term investment in AAPL, as demonstrated by the closeness that Apple’s valuation tracked Earnings Per Share. I caught a lot of flack, btw, for taking that position on EPS being the driver for Apple’s valuation. And to this day there are scoffers that say Apple’s buybacks are just a “gimmick”. But it’s a “gimmick” that has kept Domna and myself’s heads above what would otherwise have been very, very deep water, and has made many folks on this site quite well off, even when they didn’t quite realize the full extent why that was. But I always knew, because we suffered in the BB years ( Before Buybacks) following the Great Recession. And even though there was a time when my faith wavered, for which we paid a substantial price, I now feel completely vindicated in sticking with my original analysis. Did Apple truly plan this, all along? Only they know. But even if it just slowly dawned on them, they kept at it, and are continuing to do so, for the very good reason that it is richly rewarding ex-employees such as Donna, to this day. And no matter how you cut it, that is truly admirable.'
  • Joseph Bland on Yahoo!Finance: John Ternus should be a happy man - 'Doesn’t matter how brief the moment was: AAPL reascended to the level it was at a scant 2 months ago. THAT is the major takeaway. Apple’s true value is finally beginning to be acknowledged. Congrats to the long-term Apple investors who saw Apple’s potential then and still see it now! “ “The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has never been more concentrated in just two stocks than it is today, Creative Planning president Peter Mallouk pointed out. Nvidia and Apple represent over 15% of the index (see chart below). That percentage dusts the 9.1% concentration seen for Microsoft (MSFT) and General Electric (GE) in the lead-up to the dot-com bust.” Excerpt From “The S&P 500 has never been this concentrated in just 2 stocks” Brian Sozzi Yahoo Finance https://stocks.apple.com/A5hO42JmuTuWjSol_W849aQ This material may be protected by copyright.'
  • Joseph Bland on Yahoo!Finance: John Ternus should be a happy man - '“My take: Make that an intraday all-time high.” My take: I’ll take it!'
  • Bart Yee on Postcard from Toulouse - 'Note: the above shows Q1 FY2027 price changes and my estimates of percentage quarter’s sales. Due to a a straight across the board all iPhones (even the Air) Q1 FY2027 $100 increase in iPhone ASP’s from $1032 to $1132 is already a 9.7% increase. Add to that ASP elevations by only selling Pro/Pro Max and Duo as your premier premium models, and upward ASP pressure only mounts. IMO, a base $1200 ASP is a floor, more like mid to upper $1200’s is possible and likely. These are ASP’s Android makers could not even envision in their wildest dreams. Yes, Android ASP’s will rise due their own price increases and losing or moving their most budget models out of <$200 range into higher brackets BUT seeing significant decreased sales numbers due to price sensitivity. Their revenues may recover somewhat or stay positive YoY, but profits will still be difficult to maintain. Let’s look at #3 global sales Xiaomi’s Q2 2026 Smartphone report: Total Sales 31.2M, -26.3% China sales 8.4M, -27% ASP rose 25.7% from RMB1075 $160 USD to RMB1351or $201 USD, a new Xiaomi record! but still well below average Android ASP. But the 25.7% ASP rise coupled with a 26.3% drop in sales didn’t keep revenues flat, Xiaomi smartphone revenues dropped to RMB42.1B $6.27B USD, a decline YoY of -7.5%. In comparison to Apple Sales 31.2M vs 55.6M ~56% Revenue $6.27B vs $54.3B, ~just 11.5% or 8.7X less.'
  • Bill Donahue on Yahoo!Finance: John Ternus should be a happy man - '“He has a great tech-bro look.” Yeah, not at all a compliment or something to aspire to or admire.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Postcard from Toulouse - 'On the back of consumer demand for the iPhone 17 Apple has exceeded GUIDANCE with an average 16.3% growth rate during FY 2026 (3 quarters). I am not expecting another 16+% YoY revenue growth rate for the September quarter (weakened compare). I am expecting a 13% revenue growth rate due to demand for the iPhone 18, iPhone split delivery schedule, and continued demand for Mac mini/Studio. Memory cost increases are offset by memory dependent product price increases that maintain historic net income rates of ~47%. My revenue estimate (published on estimize.com) is $116.250 Billion (up 13%). My EPS estimate is $2.06 (up 11%). The above estimates were derived solely from Apple’s GUIDANCE and historic beat trend.'
  • Bart Yee on Postcard from Toulouse - 'FYQ4 guidance from June Earnings call: As we move ahead into the September quarter, I’d like to review our outlook, which includes the types of forward-looking information that Suhasini referred to. Importantly, the color we’re providing assumes that global tariff rates, policies, and their application remain in effect as of this call, and the global macroeconomic outlook does not worsen from today. ((At least tariffs for FYQ1will be stable: “The United States and China have agreed to extend a bilateral trade truce that was set to expire in November through Jan. 10, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday. The announcement came after Bessent and China’s vice premier, He Lifeng, held an unscheduled meeting in Washington. “We will extend what we call the ‘Busan Agreement’ — the economic détente between the two countries that was scheduled to end on Nov. 10 — that is going to be extended until Jan. 10,” Bessent said in an interview on Fox News Channel.” Excerpt From “U.S. and China agree to extend trade truce through Jan. 10, Bessent says” Steve Kopack NBC News apple news/ A13abrcNXTKy7gVdQFOf1yA This material may be protected by copyright.”)) “We also expect our September quarter total company revenue to be impacted by two main factors. First, we expect foreign exchange to be a sequential headwind of about 2.5 percentage points to the year-over-year total company growth rate from the June quarter to the September quarter. Second, we expect the impact from supply constraints to increase significantly sequentially. The projected supply constraints in the September quarter affect iPhone, Mac, and iPad. As a result, we expect our September quarter total company revenue to grow between 9% and 11% year-over-year. On iPhone, we expect to continue to see high levels of demand; however, we do expect iPhone revenue to be impacted by these foreign exchange headwinds and supply constraints. Therefore, we expect the September quarter reported growth rate for iPhone to be mid-teens year-over-year. For Services, we expect September quarter year-over-year reported growth rate to be largely similar to what we reported in the June quarter after removing the negative sequential impact of about two and a half percentage points from foreign exchange that we just described. We expect gross margin to be between 47 percent and 48 percent. This includes an expected benefit of approximately one percentage point related to tariff refunds. We expect operating expenses to be between $19.1 billion and $19.4 billion. We expect OI&E to be around $350 million, excluding any potential impact from the mark-to-market of minority investments, and our tax rate to be around 16.5 percent.” Given these, expectations are floating around, analysts est.: Q4 Total revenues: ~$113.62 10.9% vs +9-11% Gross Margins 47-48% iPhone guidance $56.4B (=15% mid teens guidance) Services ~$32.2B (~12% guidance same ~ June) Mac & iPad ~$15-16B maybe flat to +2% depending on supply constraints Wearables – flat ~$9.0B Q1 FY2027 analysts estimates, per Yahoo Finance: Total revenues: $154.4B +7.4% avg 19 analysts range $131.5B (-8.5%, who is that!?) to $170.4B (+18.7%) only +7.4% YoY, a big slowdown from Q4’s 9-11%. Wonder if most believe revenues are slowed vs a record and difficult tough compare from year ago iPhone 17 massive bump, plus price increases dampening demand? The move to split iPhone base models off to Spring 2027 but sub Duo revenues entirely in Q1 is an interesting revenue and profits move. Actual sales numbers will be lower BUT average sales prices due to new iPhone 18 Pro & Pro Max plus Duo could jump from $1032 in Q1 FY2026 well into the $1200’s. ASP: • 18 Pro $1275 (30%) • 18 Pro Max $1380 (35%) • iPhone Air $1120 (3%) • iPhone Duo $2250 (6%) Little talked about price increases, not discounted older models • iPhone 17 $920 (10%) (price increased $100 to $899 after iPhone Event due to memory costs instead of usual $100 discount to $699) • iPhone 16 $820 5% (up $100 to $799) • iPhone 17e $725 5% (Up $100 to $699) If 82.6M (ASP $1032 Rev $85.3B) sold in Q1 FY2026, consider a massive 10% sales decrease to 74.3M but an increase in ASP from $1032 to low estimate $1200 (+16.3%) = iPhone Revenue of $89.2B, an increase YoY of 4.6% in a tough year. If sales do not decrease that much, say -6% to 77.64M, rev up to $93.1B, +9.2%. A partially forced iPhone price tier leap like the iPhone X.'
  • Joseph Bland on Postcard from Toulouse - 'I do expect the typical renewed effort to pull the beachball down in the fast-upcoming 1st month of a new quarter, when Apple is on the open market sidelines. Works for me, since it gives Apple yet another opportunity to buy back undervalued stock…. “Lord, what fools these mortals be!” – Puck, in “A Midsummer Night’s Dream” by W, Shakespeare'
  • Joseph Bland on Postcard from Toulouse - 'IMO, this “high” valuation of Apple’s (around 40) isn’t high at all; it’s just that the stock is floating more at its natural level as the hands that have been holding the beachball down for years are finally losing their grip.'