Ben Gepp on Apple foldable: Jerry W. Doyle is prepared to have the last laugh - 'I’m with Ted Kluger here. ….Sure. That pretty much every one here can buy one is nice… but so what? It may be a great product for the upwardly mobile. Vision Pro was a great product for the upwardly mobile. But after the upwardly mobile have sated their early adopter needs, who’s left to buy this product? There is an ever worsening cost of living issue compounded by RAMageddon, that is undercutting the potential consumer base, not to mention idiotic tariff regimes and another pointless, endless war that will drive up logistics cost and eat away at disposable income. As a subscriber in this self-cited savvy investor group… I want to know what this is going to do to AAPL. What is our collective and considered opinion about how it affects revenue and EPS? Which markets will buy it and what will it cannibalise? How many can they may with component constraints? Personally I think there are serious issues on both the supply and demand side. Would love to be told I’m wrong. (apologies if this comes across a bit terse)'
on Apple foldable: Jerry W. Doyle is prepared to have the last laugh - 'I’m perfectly happy if Jerry gets the last laugh – we all win. My only comment would be: if you have a strong conviction on something AAPL related, then, sure, get it out there on this forum, BUT don’t harp on it endlessly… please.'
on Apple foldable: Jerry W. Doyle is prepared to have the last laugh - 'Of course BMW drivers don’t look down on the smaller vehicles. The M3 *defines* the ultimate driving machine: nimble and quick! And, yes, of course smaller than the 5, 6, 7, and 8 (don’t see many of the latter around anymore. I think the 1s and 2s are kinda cute. And also, a 2024 M3 is a fair bit bigger than the old E30s of yesteryear. To me, though, the idea of “versatility” in a Cadillac as an SUV just seems silly. I can’t imagine one of those things ever driving over a curb, much less off-road. Roomy? Yes. Practically a conference room. Comfortable? I am sure they are. Practical? Meh. (The M3 does not go off-road, either. Stiletto heels do not belong in mud or even barely grass – though I do have a few near-horror stories.)'
on Apple foldable: Jerry W. Doyle is prepared to have the last laugh - '“ Kind of an empty last laugh, I’d say, considering that the foldable skeptics of 3.0 will profit by exactly the same amount as the pro-folders” That was exactly my immediate thought. But on 2nd thought, I’m thinking the ones that stop laughing first are not 3.0 members (Apple longs), but those Apple critics who short Apple or not own it.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - '@Gregg Once the new iPhone comes out we will see it get lots of press because of the new Siri AI. Everyone will want to be out there with their test results.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'In afternoon trading Apple is up $1.58 of 0.51% at $310.93. The major indexes are mixed on the day. Powering the DJIA into positive territory is Visa which is poised to set a new all-time high. The shares are trading up $10.06 or 2.71% at $381.10. Just behind Visa on the day is Disney which is up $2.34 or 2.17% at $110.12. Disney has been a big multi-year under performer. Over the past five years the shares have dropped 38.28% and year-to-date the shares are off 3.18%. Over the past month the shares have climbed 16.13%. Under the new CEO the company is pressured to increase profitability and reverse the multi-year underperformance in the share price. Back to Apple. Let’s see how the shares close out the day. Apple is outperforming the broad market today.'
on Mopping up the AI slop - 'AI slop in digital music and streaming is just the next step, after all the corporate music slop that’s been increasingly pumped out in the last 30+ years and the dominance of professional song-writing factories, over-production in the studio, and auto-tune. I always think of The Buggles’ “Video Killed The Radio Star”, and how true that is. Think of all the true musical greats of the past, and then ask how many would get a record contract or a song on the charts today because of the fact that they weren’t physically attractive and “video friendly”. AI slop is just the next obvious step for all the accountants running the music industry: “You know how we could make even more money? Get rid of all the musicians and singers!!” In many cases, “pop” stars don’t play instruments and barely even sing, with recorded vocal tracks even drowning them out during what are supposed to be live events.'
on Apple foldable: Jerry W. Doyle is prepared to have the last laugh - 'It’d be great to see Foldables in SactoJoe’s next get-together❣️'
on Apple foldable: Jerry W. Doyle is prepared to have the last laugh - 'That’s hilarious Romeo – I hereby nominate you for a Hasselblad Award! But I’m also wondering who’s the guy whose ear is just peeking out from the side of the photo?? It looks vaguely familiar… 🙂'
on Apple foldable: Jerry W. Doyle is prepared to have the last laugh - 'having more choices within the iPhone category is the only way to hold onto, much less expand a product category – and grow Apple’s user base. With respect, that’s totally bogus. It’s the idea that “only iPhones count for Apple, everything else is irrelevant.” I know people with iPads who don’t have iPhones. More importantly, I see A LOT MORE iPads in business settings; that’s a significantly unappreciated market for Apple products (even if a corporate iPad doesn’t buy any Apple services.) And my Apple TV is completely independent from my other Apple devices (except for the very few times I stream something from a laptop to my TV through the Apple TV.)'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'In July of 2020, when Apple first hit a 40+ valuation to about now, Apple has doubled in value. But it’s also been the object of a lot of selling pressure, and consequently has bought back a lot of undervalued stock. I think we’re in a period of major Apple revaluation upwards, and consequently I believe we are going to be seeing the next doubling over a substantially shorter period of time,, perhaps even half that time. I’ll take it.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'I took a look at the top “AI” contenders and found something interesting. Despite all the talk about Apple being behind in “AI”, ranking these firms by their respective Investor Sentiment Multiplier (ISM) I find investors don’t agree. 35.79 Apple 32.06 Nvidia 27.25 Microsoft 21.08 Amazon 20.94 Meta 17.47 Google If, as I have contended for a long time, come hell or high water investors buy the future prospects of a firm, then investors currently view Apple’s future prospects among the leading “AI” firms as better, by a significant amount. Question: could that be recognition that “AI” needs a platform on which to operate? Could investors be recognizing that on device is a better platform than data center? It’s certainly far less expensive to implement, immediately generates positive cash flow (sales of Apple Intelligence capable hardware) with an ~2.0 Billion installed base of very loyal (to Apple) users poised to upgrade to the latest/greatest over the next 3-5 years.'
on Apple foldable: Jerry W. Doyle is prepared to have the last laugh - 'From purely a marketing POV, having more choices within the iPhone category is the only way to hold onto, much less expand a product category – and grow Apple’s user base. An easy way to better understand the new foldable iPhone, is to think of it in terms of the auto industry. FULL DISCLOSURE: Many years ago before I was retired, I used to work in the ad business, and was fortunate to have worked on the BMW account at it’s original creative ad agency that wrote “The ultimate driving machine.” Technological differences not withstanding, such AWD, more horsepower – or today, choosing an EV instead of gas – the thing that remains the same is – the brand name matters. And of course, the premium full size models have higher margins and are more profitable than the smaller compacts. The secret marketing sauce for coveted brands like BMW… or Apple, is to establish a superior quality brand name at the high-end. So that buyers who get a compact model of that brand don’t feel like they’re getting a lesser product. I remember the Creative Director – whose name was on the door – explaining to me why the larger BMW owners don’t look down on smaller BMW owners. In the eyes of any BMW owner, all BMWs have equal status. It’s interesting to note that the classic American Cadillac brand, that used to be a huge, very comfy to drive status symbol, with all kinds of standard luxury accessories, not to mention big sexy fins, has evolved into the premier SUV for leaders of gov’t and industry. Cadillac currently sells more SUVs than sedans, reflecting a broader trend in the automotive market where consumers prefer the versatility and space of SUVs. As this applies to Apple, I think that offering a foldable phone is the normal evolution in order for them to own the high-end category by simply expanding the model choices. Offering versatility and choices is of course, how you reach the broadest audience. If I was going to do advertising for the new foldable iPhone, just off the top of my head… I might refer to it more of as an expandable iphone, rather than just a foldable iphone. In other words, it empowers you to do more. More bang for the buck, so to speak. The numerous reports last year that the iPhone Air was a failure, are not true. The latest reports from Ookla – based on usage rather than just sales – which Apple doesn’t report – shows the iPhone Air was in fact, a success – particularly in South Korean and Japan, as it cannibalized the iPhone 16 plus. On a personal note, a good friend, who is a designer by trade, bought an iPhone Air last year, as did my brother, and they both love it. I’ll be very surprised if there isn’t an iPhone Air 2. Bottom line: If smartphone users don’t buy the new foldable iPhone model, they’ll buy one of the other iPhones. As long as the quality and expectations are met, it’s a win-win. And as Apple‘s installed user base continues to grow, so will the stock price.'
on Apple foldable: Jerry W. Doyle is prepared to have the last laugh - 'Amen, David. Small phone + big iPad Pro nearby = perfection. It is possible I will recant when I hold the new shiny in my hands. But I doubt it.'
on Apple foldable: Jerry W. Doyle is prepared to have the last laugh - 'I’ve always liked the iPad mini/iphone combo. Sure I have two devices with me when traveling but I also have a lot more battery power available then I would have in a single foldable iPhone. There’s only so much space available for the battery and if the foldable iPhone really gets that much more usage then think about how much more quickly you’ll be in low power mode. I suppose one could lug around an external battery pack for the fold but that sort of defeats the purpose.'
on Apple foldable: Jerry W. Doyle is prepared to have the last laugh - 'It’s good to hear from Jerry; I greatly appreciated his contributions. And, yes, I’ll be swapping my 17ProMax for one this fall.'
on Apple foldable: Jerry W. Doyle is prepared to have the last laugh - 'We’re less than 30 days from the unveiling. This is a product I’ve waited 3-4 years to own and I couldn’t be more excited.'
