Steven Philips on Goldman Sachs raises Apple target $30 to $370 - 'What hath Rod got?'
on Laura Martin: Apple's existential risk - 'I modified your question to included sales and revenue: “Yes, Wall Street’s revised numbers fully incorporate an intense EU sales slowdown. The European Union accounts for roughly 27% of Apple’s global revenue. Analysts adjusted Apple’s forward numbers following the announcement that Apple is officially withholding Siri AI and Apple Intelligence from the iPhone and iPad in the EU on iOS 27 and iPadOS 27, with no timeline for arrival. The regulatory blockade—and how it alters Apple’s financial trajectory in Europe—comes down to specific impacts: 1. The Core Issue: The “Siri Blockade” • The Conflict: Under the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), regulators demand that Apple give third-party AI assistants deep, interoperable access to system capabilities. • Apple’s Refusal: Apple claims this “extreme interpretation” forces them to give outside AI models unlimited, autonomous access to private user files and messages. • The Reality: Consequently, EU buyers of the iPhone 17 and upcoming iPhone 18 lines are completely locked out of core features like on-device writing tools, visual intelligence, and the entirely rebuilt Siri. 2. How the EU Slowdown Shifts Sales Numbers Because the EU market is being denied the primary marketing reason to upgrade, Apple’s local performance will suffer a sharp fracture through 2027: • Stagnant Replacement Cycles: European consumers hold onto their phones for an average of 3.8 years. Without a “must-have” feature like Siri AI, upgrade rates will flatten. Millions of users will choose cheap battery replacements for their iPhone 13s or 14s rather than buying a new device. • The Android Defection Risk: Android is capitalizing on Apple’s absence. The European Commission recently ruled that Google must offer competing AI assistants broader access to Android. This means Samsung and Google can legally deploy fully compliant cloud-hybrid AI across Europe today, tempting premium iOS users to switch. • The Revenue Hit: Analysts project that the EU AI omission threatens up to 40% of Apple’s near-term growth runway. It shaves roughly $4 Billion to $6 Billion off Apple’s projected global hardware revenue for 2026 and 2027 compared to an un-restricted market timeline. 3. Why Apple’s Global Outlook Remains High Despite the severe EU headwind, Apple’s overall valuation is still breaking records because its strategy accounts for this geographic loss: • The MAC Loophole: The DMA blockade only applies to iOS, iPadOS, and watchOS. Siri AI is fully active for EU users on macOS and visionOS because those platforms aren’t legally designated as market “gatekeepers”. • The China Offset: Apple recently secured regulatory clearing for Apple Intelligence in China via local partnerships with Alibaba and Baidu. Winning back the massive Chinese luxury hardware market more than financially balances out the stagnation happening in Europe. I’ll continue on Monday’s posts.'
on Goldman Sachs raises Apple target $30 to $370 - 'After seeing this price increase it’s patently obvious that they have not hired Rod Hall as a consultant.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Surprising stock strength on a Monday morning. I wonder if it will grow or wane after Europe market closes. The move could be partially a reaction to Iran crisis pause. Optimism before earnings usually peaks around now.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Thanks for the heads-up, David! Meanwhile, Max Pain remains unconvinced….'
on Apple says Micron's profit margins are too high - '@Bart: Incredible, Thanks. You have helped me add to and confirm my list of companies for Leap Puts when we see this forecast beginning to take shape.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (7/27-7/31/26) - 'Heading toward Monday morning and Apple is up $2.98 overnight at $336 per share.'
on Inviting friends of the blog to Apple’s Q3 2026 Earnings Smackdown - 'I have heard this proverb stated as “Better to remain quiet and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt”.'
on Apple says Micron's profit margins are too high - 'Exactly- the premise of the article is absurd, as Apple is trying to maintain margins, not significantly raise them to exploit a temporary inefficiency in the market at the expense of consumers.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (7/27-7/31/26) - 'Hi Robert. Is this “year to date” performance January 1 to today (which is how *I* interpret YTD) or is it actually one full year’s performance? The reason I ask is that SpaceX $150 on June 12th completely doesn’t fit the narrative. (I’m probably just being obtuse.) Thanks. David'
on Apple says Micron's profit margins are too high - 'p.s. If we’re doing windfall profits taxes for oil companies, we should also do them for memory companies.'
on Apple says Micron's profit margins are too high - 'There are only 10 reasons to be in business. The first is to make a profit. The other nine don’t count. If Tim believes Micron is gouging, then I suggest he buy a memory designer/fab (don’t strain TSMC anymore than you have to) and make a “reasonable” profit. If I recall correctly, Samsung devices tried to prevail through corporate to get favorable pricing for the Samsung memory it consumes. Corporate said “NO”.'
on Apple says Micron's profit margins are too high - 'Calling BS: Apple’s hardware GM is 36% to 39%, slightly above hardware industry average of 35%. But, a lot of hardware are clones, Android, Windows, or Lintel, where the vendor does not invest in the chip nor the OS. Nvidia’s GM is 75%, Cisco’s 64%, Micron’s 80%… Naive people decry Apple’s profitability. The biggest reason for Apple’s high net profit is their efficiency, especially low OpEx and CapEx, also excellent ROIC at 45%. Finance 101.'
