Rodney Avilla on Mark Gurman: To soften the blow of price hikes, Apple will offer new leasing program - 'As a consumer I prefer to buy so I can pass my old units to family (iPhone, laptop, Watch etc). The old Upgrade Program and the new Leasing Program both have down payments, monthly payments, and return iPhone at the end. Besides the no AppleCare, I’m not seeing much difference. Perhaps there is a tax advantage?'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Gurman today on Samsung’s new Foldable phones…Based on using the Z Fold 8 (wide), I’d reset my expectations of how well the foldable iPhone is going to sell, even at over $2000. It’s going to be a home run. And Samsung will do well too, getting a ton of switchers from within the Android ecosystem. Here’s to a home run for all of us Apple longs and for the shares I bought in LiquidMetal. LOL'
on Mark Gurman: To soften the blow of price hikes, Apple will offer new leasing program - 'I completely agree. I don’t like and I don’t agree with his opinions. Am I the only one that thinks his takes are always off?'
on Mark Gurman: To soften the blow of price hikes, Apple will offer new leasing program - 'This could be quite beneficial for Apple. Based on the description, there are two new elements. 1. No Apple Care (which most of these buyers were probably not getting anyway) 2. A residual value. The residual value piece is smart. It provides more impetus to get used equipment back to Apple, and kind of sets a floor on what third parties will give for a trade-in. Apple can either recycle the components or move the salable end-items through third party resellers. It also lowers the price of the device up front to the initial buyer. Much like a car lease. Competitors would be hard pressed to match the program because most of their stuff is worthless after 24 -36 months. Should help offset the memory related price increases.'
on Mark Gurman: To soften the blow of price hikes, Apple will offer new leasing program - 'It doesn’t feel like this was intended to “soften the blow of price hikes”. From what I recall seeing I think this has been in the works for a while. Longer than the recent surge in memory prices.'
on Mark Gurman: To soften the blow of price hikes, Apple will offer new leasing program - 'More Joz than either Cook or Ternus.'
on Apple is No. 1 in shareholder wealth creation over the last 100 years - 'Oh Tommo! Poor lad. A bit like the ‘other’ equally ‘poor’ Brit who chucked his PC, which ended up in the Newport Municipal dump, only to remember it had the codes for his Bitcoin, a year or two ago worth $3bn.'
on 1.5TB Mac Studio rumor is the most exciting thing Errol Brandt heard this week - 'Thanks Alan, it took me the better part of 8-10 hours to write prompts and copy/paste & formatting Gemini’s replies to fit the posting guidelines here and look readable. The funny thing is direct copy & paste removes paragraphs and breaks, while pasting to Notes preserves them but adds the citation links sometimes, over complicating the output when that is all copied over to a post. But it is a fun exercise in using Gemini AI (and soon Siri AI) to ask questions and see what data comes up.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'I’m looking at Microsoft now which fell $4.54 today to close at $397.75. It’s down over 28% from the all-time high of $555.45 set back in late October and year-to-date the shares are off 22%. At the same time I’m looking at some impressive price targets. I consider Morningstar among the most conservative ratings firms and it has a Fair Value Estimate of $600 on the shares and a 5-star Buy rating. Morningstar is not the only firm with a strong and recent Buy rating on the company. What might analysts see that isn’t reflected in the current share price? Obviously the shares are out-of-favor at this time.'
on 1.5TB Mac Studio rumor is the most exciting thing Errol Brandt heard this week - 'Bart, I meant no offense. That said, YOUR summation and response was worth far more than AI’s sterile recitation to me!'
on Apple is No. 1 in shareholder wealth creation over the last 100 years - 'David T. — In your statement, you cite 5 stock splits since Apple’s IPO in Dec of 1980. From the example 8K shares purchased in 2001 though, there have only been three stock splits. This probably explains the calculation discrepancy. You probably asked your AI how many splits since Apple’s IPO then applied an incorrect multiplier. This only illustrates the larger widespread point of who to believe anymore — 😉 The truth is out there, but will we soon even be able to recognize it.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Since this is the only thread today, I’m posting here. I know this was rumored before and Musk denied. Seems like it’s making the rounds again. The only advantage I can come up with is satellite-based internet and voice. I just don’t know if it’s practical / reliable in the form factor being shown. Sorry for the long URL, I’m not trying to drive traffic to their website! https://trading.stockstotrade.com/mml/step/mml-vsl/?utm_source=44&utm_medium=affiliates&utm_campaign=7IgQ6b&utm_content=MPXI608&utm_term=&ef_tid=8123900c1aa143378695432bdc757b93&ef_oid=76&ef_aid=44'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Since this is the only thread today, I’m posting here. I know this was rumored before and Musk denied. Seems like it’s making the rounds again. The only advantage I can come up with is satellite-based internet and voice. I just don’t know if it’s practical and/or reliable in the form factor being shown. Sorry for the long URL, I’m not trying to drive traffic to their website 🙂 https://trading.stockstotrade.com/mml/step/mml-vsl/?utm_source=44&utm_medium=affiliates&utm_campaign=7IgQ6b&utm_content=MPXI608&utm_term=&ef_tid=8123900c1aa143378695432bdc757b93&ef_oid=76&ef_aid=44'
on Premarket: Apple is red - '”If it doubles like that again, AAPL will hit $660/share around this time of year, 2029.” Joseph, how do you see that happening?'
on 1.5TB Mac Studio rumor is the most exciting thing Errol Brandt heard this week - 'Thank you Bart. It took me over an hour to read all of this, but it was worth it.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Anyone know why Amphenol closed up $7.30 or 4.85% today at $157.81? The shares are currently up $1.59 after hours. It recently came up on one of my tech industry screeners as an enterprise to follow.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Minutes away from the closing bell and Apple is at $327.77, up $1.18 on the day. The NASDAQ Composite is now up 1.32% and the S&P 500 is higher by 0.91% although 53% of components are in the red on the day. Sandisk, Western Digital and Micron are all up over 10% and are collectively pushing the idea higher.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'At 1pm in the east Apple is up $1.29 at $327.88. Apple supplier Broadcom is ahead $8.46 or 2.24% at $386.62. It’s another good day for Goldman Sachs. The shares are up $32.27 at $1,087.30 and Morgan Stanley is also higher. The shares are up $6.29 at $217.23. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite has advanced 1.39%. All four major indexes are in the green.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Also, AAPL doubled in price over the last 3 very rocky years. If it doubles like that again, AAPL will hit $660/share around this time of year, 2029.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'A couple of other data points: In the last two quarters, AAPL has gone up 32.4%, NVDA has gone up 11.9%, and MSFT has gone down 10.2%z. Meanwhile, the Dow has gone up 6.6%, the S&P has gone up 9.2%, and the the NASDAQ has gone up 11.3%.'
on Premarket: Apple is red - 'Friday, Max Pain was $300. Yesterday, Max Pain was “broken”. Today, it’s $325. At the open, AAPL was $323.34. The high so far today (9:43 AM PDT) was $329.60. Options are being dragged higher, kicking and screaming. What’s new? “These aren’t the droids we’re looking for. Move along.”'
on 1.5TB Mac Studio rumor is the most exciting thing Errol Brandt heard this week - 'Wow! This is an amazing thread. Thanks for compiling this.'
on 1.5TB Mac Studio rumor is the most exciting thing Errol Brandt heard this week - 'Bart: Thank you for this series of posts that I found extremely informative, even though on the technical side a lot of it was over my head. I’m sure I’m not the only one who really appreciates the way you occasionally do these “deep dives” and share the results with this community.'
on 1.5TB Mac Studio rumor is the most exciting thing Errol Brandt heard this week - 'I wonder if AI will have its own version of Moore’s Law, where the models get more powerful AND smaller at an exponential rate… It wouldn’t surprise me. The ability to shrink AI models definitely works in Apple’s favor. Model shrinkage could make used phones more valuable, as something that won’t fit in an iPhone 17 this year might well fit 2 or 3 years from now.'
on 1.5TB Mac Studio rumor is the most exciting thing Errol Brandt heard this week - 'Hi Joseph, I don’t think anyone claimed there was something new here, certainly not me. After all, Gemini is trained on what is past and currently available, including people’s thoughts and ideas about Apple, AI and a whole host of things that could, are, and will affect all of them. My purpose for the questions and sharing the responses was to bring up the reasons, rationales, and ideas about how this whole AI thing, where’s it’s possibly headed, Apple’s known thinking, and some speculation based on slivers of Apple roadmaps that may or may not see the light of day. I think that’s worthy of discussion here, or at least contemplation. I feel I learned some new things about how Hyperscalers are trying to enter and create an entirely new technology and business. Considering the huge volumes of expenses they are generating, to me it’s worthwhile trying to understand how and when they think it will pay off, at least before some part of it burns up or implodes. Meanwhile, a lot of that energy and costs have materially affected Apple, especially the “ever behind in AI” scenarios and now the Memory Supply and Price Spikes. That many here saw Apple’s “different” AI approach as being not only prudent but potentially a winning hand (at least one of the winners) is not lost on me, but where the puck is going is a bit harder to discern. Here’s a couple of thoughts: 1) Apple has roadmapped its AI servers for at least 5-10 years, but like any project, there’s technical hurdles to overcome, hence M5 Ultra forthcoming, M7 Ultra already drawn up for 2nm or less, and Baltra needing some additional tech from Broadcom. 2) At the same time, Apple silicon A20 and beyond is also roadmapped to handle Edge AI and more, plus continued advances in modem C-series, networking, RF, Bluetooth and other chips will add value and cost containment, assuming Apple still has some significant capacity with TSMC and now Intel. 3) The memory crunch may prove resilient, may prove relatively transitory, depending on how the market reacts to continued AI spending without significant ROI y not only the Hyperscalers, but those clients and customers who also need to see ROI in their RPO contracts. If there is the slightest hint of hiccups, datacenter usage, server and hardware purchasing may slow, possibly abruptly. While DRAM memory is still in high demand and constrained supply, there may be more supply available within 6-12-18 months coinciding with that potential slowdown, leading to, just maybe, a significant drop in HBM demand and a need for memory makers to switch up supply for DRAM and NAND memory to sustain revenues and profits, or at least prevent severe declines. Typical boom and bust memory cycle. 4) with Ternus at the helm, and some hints at a robust product roadmap, I think iPhone 18, Ultra Foldable, an enhanced Air2, and then iPhone 20 will be very attractive, albeit with a memory cost hangover. If Apple can get through that cycle relatively unfazed margin wise, relief may come by late 2027. Whether Apple then is able to or wants to reduce prices will be an interesting time. 5) I feel confident in Ternus & Srouji’s hardware commitments and roadmap, which leads to conquest sales, Android switchers, and greater market share of the premium tiers, plus that leads to a very self-sufficient and self revenue generating install base as it come to upgrades and Services engagement worldwide. 6) Apple fortunes in China have been on the upswing and now AI approval there gives Apple Chinese owners another use case to test out and see if it enhances their iOS experience. While it isn’t a driving force for upgrades, a useful and effective AI in China, writhing governmental restrictions or regulation, makes Apple at least evenly competitive. Whether any of that is new or not, it’s an investment thesis that bodes well for Apple, barring regulatory, geopolitical or trade black swans, which are always near the horizon. Let’s hope Apple, Ternus, Cook, and Parekh can skillfully navigate these unsettled waters.'
on 1.5TB Mac Studio rumor is the most exciting thing Errol Brandt heard this week - 'Bart: Thank you for this series of thoughtful and informative posts. I’m am investing serious time in research on equities in this very dynamic technology era. I believe Apple has been wise to not only decide to raise prices to maintain product quality but also to move off of the net cash neutral goal as a means to maintain adequate liquidity for future strategic investments. I was quite heartened to read of the renewed chip agreement between Apple and Broadcom. As a matter of practice I don’t recommend stocks for others to buy. Each person has unique needs, goals and expectations. With that as a disclaimer I do recommend reading Morningstar’s July 7th note on Broadcom which mentions the recent agreement with Apple. I look forward to robust discussions in the months ahead on all things Apple and AI.'
on 1.5TB Mac Studio rumor is the most exciting thing Errol Brandt heard this week - 'Sorry, Bart, but your AI didn’t say anything particularly new – and was pretty long-winded in the process. Yes, I skim-read what it had to say, so I may have missed something. But the trick isn’t noticing the Apple advantages that are slowly coming into view: The trick is realizing that all of this is old news, not just to us, but more importantly to Apple. Describing where the puck is is all well and good, but doesn’t speak to where Apple is actually going. And knowing that they aren’t sitting on their laurels is IMO probably still the best reason to continue investing in them, even if you can come up with a good guess as to where that Apple puck is going. “Apple is doomed!” Yes, again…'
on 1.5TB Mac Studio rumor is the most exciting thing Errol Brandt heard this week - 'Hi, David. Upvoted! I sent the video link to my stepson who’s in the front lines on AI and data security. Part of his response ties in closely with what you’re saying, IMO. “He’s absolutely correct that 1.5 TB is more than enough to run something like GLM. It can be fine tuned to each business. It can write its own workflows, custom to the business. It can automate business programs, all locally, all with inference/AI staying in-house and never leaving your network.”'
on 1.5TB Mac Studio rumor is the most exciting thing Errol Brandt heard this week - 'To Gregg continued: Each time there were AAPL dips there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth, and banging on keyboards. And each time, Apple and AAPL rose from the depths to recover and surpass its previous peaks, in fits and starts. While many of us rode those coasters up and down and back up (and back down), some may wish to find ways to mitigate the portfolio dips (or depth) while preparing, if possible, for the eventual recovery of AAPL and others, partly due to the market rebalancing, mostly due to the focus, foresight, management, planning and execution, and principled steadfastness and tenacity of sticking to their roadmaps and plans (with occasional help from outside when needed, see OpenAI, Google and Broadcom) for the future. I asked the questions to help give broader context to how Hyperscalers and Apple diverged in their thinking and actions, and why Apple refused to get caught up in an AI frenzy it could not win. That’s why Apple decided to play a fundamentally different game altogether, one most derided and mocked until clarity began to occur in investors’ minds about sustainability and ROI. How we prepare for the next go around was the reason for my questions below.'


