Recent Comments

  • John Konopka on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - 'Sorry to reply to my own post. It took a long time for all the synapses to fire. Gene Munster is the guy I was trying to recall. I believe the for a long time he believed that Apple would make a TV set. Now I really do wish they would make one, but for different reasons than before.'
  • John Konopka on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - 'Off topic but privacy related: https://youtu.be/6IFVTcM28KA This is a long video exploring how much LG TVs spy on you. Rather incredible. Not just do they report what you are viewing. They record audio and they track down every wireless device within reach. Even if you don’t connect the tv to the internet it tries to find an open WiFi and connect on its own. Really amazing how much work they put into collecting information on you. Who was the analyst that for years was promoting Apple making a TV? After watching this I wish Apple did make a TV. Even if it was pricey at least it would be safe to use. Although this is about LG tvs, I suspect the others are the same.'
  • Bill Donahue on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - 'AI users aren’t going to need 2 or 3 years to figure out hyperscaler AI is far more expensive than buying Apple hardware. The huge majority are already realizing that their investment in AI-incorporation pilots aren’t returning a positive ROI. All it will take is 4-6 months to realize your annualized AI costs are about the same as buying Apple hardware, after which the Apple-based AI is free, and that doesn’t include the huge corporate and financial security advantage of flipping to Apple hardware and the reduced costs associated with it.'
  • Bill Donahue on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - 'Especially when their regulatory filings pre-IPO to describe the max potential revenue is an estimate of the value of all actions or services that could possibly be replaced with AI (and not necessarily the current version of AI). It means Anthropic estimates its future revenue to include the monetary value of all on-device tasks that could involve AI. And OpenAI makes the same estimate. It’s really amazing, the deception. And it can’t possibly be delusion because there’s no way anyone at any of these companies believes what they’re telling regulators and prospective investors. Which is the only reason anyone needs not to invest in them.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - 'I’ve always looked at an amortization period of 5 years for comparison purposes. In Horace’s example, not knowing how many average users were generating AI fees, I calculated a breakeven at 30 months (2 1/2 years at a much lower AI fee structure) and on device still proved to be the better financial decision. In two to three years the industry will have solid numbers to use in comparison studies. After that I can see a dramatic upturn in sales of the Mac mini and Studio. I also envision the only defense against on device as a reduction in the cost of tokens. With Nvidia entering the on device market (2 – 3 years) it will join Apple in competing against data center models. “Apple is doomed”.'
  • Rodney Avilla on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - '2026- the year of the Apple. Retail (smart private Siri and the top cell phones, watches, & iPads in the world), education (Neo), and now enterprise (silicon). Tim Cook must feel good in what he’s created, and John Turnus has to be excited with what he gets to start with.'
  • Robert McDonald on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - 'I love this summary by Horace. He is always the best when it comes to getting to the point. Especially when so many others don’t get it. I love the essence of this conclusion. This transition has been a long time coming. If anybody had any doubts about retiring on this stock, they can now relax.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - '” I think one of the real reasons that Apple invested in developing its own silicon was for independence from it suppliers.” Alan Kay: “People who are really serious about software should make their own hardware,” Steve Jobs first met Alan Kay at Xerox’s PARC facility in Palo Alto. Jobs quoted Kay’s beliefs often. Apple was an early investor in ARM, but sold it when cash became much more important (late ‘90s), but Jobs was sold on the RISC architecture. The iPhone was introduced in 2007. At the time Jobs had a vision for a personal assistant that went beyond the Palm Pilot (he even indirectly referenced the Palm Pilot when he went “Yech” to the idea of a stylus) but he needed a more powerful processor that was stingy on power consumption, and a more capable OS. Neither MOT nor INTC were interested in developing such a processor, or couldn’t do it. Apple then bought PA Semi in 2008. Two years later Apple bought a personal assistant app called SIRI. It’s my opinion that Apple was headed towards an AI-like world 20 years ago. The A-4 processor was introduced with the iPhone 4, the model that cemented iPhone’s dominance of the smartphone industry. From there the die was cast for future Apple silicon and products. Apple Intelligence has its roots as an alternative to the Palm Pilot, spring boarding off the iPhone/SIRI architecture. What we are seeing today is the culmination of 20 years of technological advancements that have made the original vision possible. Believing Alan Kay’s dictum that successful software developers MUST design their own hardware, Apple began assembling the components to do just that a generation ago. Apple has never been late to “AI”. Apple’s vision was, and has been, years ahead of the competition'
  • Joseph Bland on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - 'Sadly, Bill, there is a method to their madness. Read John’s comment below and then mine below John’s. Which is what is so encouraging about Apple’s approach: It’s a growing roadblock against world dominance based on idea theft.'
  • Joseph Bland on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - 'John, you read my mind! You posted just before me! Let me be the first to upvote you!'
  • Joseph Bland on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - 'Here’s the real problem: Ai that doesn’t respect privacy is downright dangerous. Companies, like people, depend on privacy being protected, Apple’s own present lawsuit against OpenAI (an oxymoron, like military intelligence) says it this way: “”Where trade secret information is fed into an AI agent or model that ‘learns’ from it, such ‘learning’ may create irreversible and continually propagating uses of the trade secret…” Make no mistake about it: This is all about the presently powerful staying powerful, ad infinitum. And then there’s the quickly rising specter of Artificial Super-Intelligence (ASI) and the Singularity…. All in the pursuit of money and power….'
  • John Konopka on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - '@Gregg If you read Ed Zitron and Gary Marcus you find this paradox has been evident for a while. The AI backers have this fantasy that they can create a magical, super intelligent entity if only they spend enough and get enough input data. Then they can rule the world. Musk, Zuckerberg, Thiel, et al all hope for this. Plus, if they give up now then they will be slaves to the winner. The economics don’t make sense but as long as they believe they can win then there is no limit to how much they will spend. It makes perverted sense. If the prize is infinitely large then any effort is worth it. It’s really a fascinating battle involving human nature, greed, hucksters, technology, money and natural resources.'
  • David Drinkwater on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - 'I think one of the real reasons that Apple invested in developing its own silicon was for independence from it suppliers. Waiting for Motorola and Intel (I think Motorola did the actual manufacturing of the PowerPC), to come up with new silicon held up iterations of Macs. With its own designs, Apple had to wait on only Apple (and to some degree TSMC, but TSMC have been doing a fine job of advancing the range of design options available to Apple).'
  • Gregg Thurman on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - '” before AI capex can generate a decent return” At least a year ago I read an article (think it was in IEEE) that analyzed the economics of data centers. It concluded, at that time, that the data center model was fatally broken. I believed the analysis then, and I believe it more firmly today. The data center cabal will never generate the net income required to make data center investments profitable.'
  • Gregg Thurman on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - '” then what is the income model that will make all the AI datacenter buildout profitable?” There isn’t one, not with the present data center supply and continued build out. It’s as if the management teams at MSFT, ORCL, AMZN, GOOG, META, et al, are blind to the realty of on device efficiency. Suddenly they don’t have the silicon to drive AI adoption that the enterprise really wants. , and they are behind. Apple recognized this 10 years ago when it began developing its own silicon. Everybody thought the purpose was to make its computers faster and less expensive to produce. That’s the narrative Apple pushed and everybody accepted it. Nobody (especially the media and WS) saw what the ultimate goal was for Apple’s silicon. That was because Apple was mum on the subject of AI, content to let everyone think Apple had surrendered AI to the LLMs I’m not being critical of the data center crowd. Who among us saw this sea change coming to the extent that it has, and will yet become? I, for one, didn’t.'
  • Greg Lippert on Mark Gurman: Behind Phil Schiller's exit - 'Beat me too it. I was sure Phil was closer to a billionaire than a millionaire. And Apple TV started priced low because of lack of content. Now look at it. IMO it has the highest ratio of quality programs – all original and exclusive. If I could only watch one streamer it would now be ATV.'
  • Stephen Gordon on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - 'So Apple should be in a good position to steal the industry’s lunch money before AI capex can generate a decent return. Am I reading this right?'
  • David Drinkwater on Mark Gurman: Behind Phil Schiller's exit - '$5 million was a hypothetical and intentionally ridiculously small number. Maybe I should have clarified that at the outset, but it is not my intention to meddle in his life. 🙂'
  • Rick Povich on Curious Analyst foresees three years of Apple earnings growth - '“AAPL’s more than 2.5 billion active devices give the company one of the largest consumer technology distribution networks in existence.” I wish the dunderhead, bottom-feeding, AAPL-hating ANALysts could wrap their tiny heads around that 2.5 billion active device number when they conjure their $253 price targets, or raise their targets three dallahs to $280. I can hope, but… This was a good article that makes some very obvious, strong, encouraging points. I like where Mr. Njagi’s coming from.'
  • Bill Donahue on Mark Gurman: Behind Phil Schiller's exit - 'Schiller was granted an options block of 150,000 shares in 2011, worth about $60 million, just to secure his employment until 2016. He’s regularly exercised and sold options along the way, including a ~$39M block in 2012, and an $18.6 million block in 2013. In 2020, he apparently still had stock worth $18.8M, after exercising sales of $74M over the years. On top of whatever he’s been paid over the last 30+ years. Something tells me Phil will be okay financially. And has a lot more than $5 million to ease his decision to retire.'
  • Bill Donahue on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - 'Which seems to raise the question: If Apple hardware is the cheapest means of delivering enterprise AI for the majority of uses, then what is the income model that will make all the AI datacenter buildout profitable? Because if it’s not consumers – who will simply not pay significant subscription fees – and the enterprise market is much smaller than the scale of enterprise demand… It reminds me of a quote from long-ago Vancouver Canucks coach Harry Neale, who once said, “Last season we couldn’t win at home. This season we can’t win on the road. My failure as a coach is that I can’t think of anywhere else to play.”'
  • David Drinkwater on The last meeting of Tim Cook's last day as Apple CEO - 'It does sometimes make me sad that my 1984 Mac got lost in “cleaning up” activities. I new I wanted it, but as a kid, I admit, I didn’t have *that kind* of an eye for the future. But I do still have two G4 Cubes as “bookends” on my fireplace mantle. (Neither one has a hard drive anymore, because I shredded those, but I do still have the rest of the hardware. Also, unfortuntely broke the Original Apple Cinema Display, otherwise I would have the MOMA Exhibit right in my own home.)'
  • David Drinkwater on Mark Gurman: Behind Phil Schiller's exit - 'He’s 66 years old and surely has a market portfolio of greater than $5 million. Let the man quit working and just enjoy life. He’s earned it. Treat $5 million as an “endowment”. Pay yourself 4% per year and you should always have essentially a $5 million endowment, accounting for inflation and market vicissitudes. 4% of $5 million is $200k. A person can live just fine with that. If you do an end of life calculation and do a mortgage to pay yourself, rather than a bank, you don’t even need $5 million to “live until you die”. I like the charitable angle better, though.'
  • David Drinkwater on Mark Gurman: Behind Phil Schiller's exit - 'Joe, we can’t “know” any of this. Apple spent money to buy its own shares. It could have, instead, spent that money elsewhere and done something totally awesome — or bone-headedly stupid. We can only know what *did* happen and what the results are today.'
  • David Drinkwater on Mark Gurman: Behind Phil Schiller's exit - 'This shows how effective rumor-mongering can be: “Oh, I meant to say John Giannandrea, not Luca Maestri.”'
  • Robert Stack on U.S. markets are closed for Labor Day - 'Re: “But the Apple news flow never stops.” And neither do you, PED. On Labor Day, we salute your labor in creating this site…'
  • Robert LoCascio on The last meeting of Tim Cook's last day as Apple CEO - 'Thank you Tim, from me and my family. We are grateful for your outstanding stewardship of this incredible company.'
  • David Drinkwater on The Financial Times profiles Apple new CEO - 'Sam a Bart, but quicker: It’s the Fahrvergnügen. Driving pleasure. AKA Fun! This time of year, as the heat finally breaks, I love to take out the 2004 BMW M3 SMG, drop the top and roll. Sometimes fast, sometimes slow. It’s just very, very enjoyable. And when fast, exhilarating!'
  • David Drinkwater on The Financial Times profiles Apple new CEO - 'This is actually kid of interesting, so I’ll throw this in for those who may not follow the link: In addition to Porsche, Ternus is a huge F1 fan, so that might explain some of Apple’s interest in F1 Broadcast ownership. I’d also add that Porsche is a member of the (very, very large) Volkswagen syndicate. Without knowing Ternus’ — and also Cook’s — interest in Porsche, I had often supposed that VW would be a good partner for any Apple Car effort. Don’t know if that fruit will ever fall from the tree, but it is intriguing and would be one hell of a One More Thing …'
  • Joseph Bland on Horace Dediu: How Apple finally won the enterprise buyer's heart - 'Read this on Asymco One back on Friday, then watched the dummies push the price under Max Pain. Fine by me. The gap between the average price (now about $75/share) Apple has paid to buy back 44% of its stock over the 12.5 years since buybacks began just keeps widening, and our net worth keeps increasing faster than inflation. Nice weather here at the deck chairs of the Good Ship Apple….'