Robert Paul Leitao on This week's Apple trading strategies (8/17-8/21/26) - 'Steven: Alphabet may have that ambition (a hardware platform) but BRK can’t really reliably forecast how and when that will happen and what the uptake will be in the future. I’m not sure that’s a game Warren Buffett and Greg Abel want to play but I do appreciate your point. There will be winners and losers in the AI race. Is BRK picking its horse so-to-speak for the big race? I do see Alphabet and Microsoft as two of the potential big winners in the AI derby.'
on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - 'From the article: “Here is what Apple offered: • 15% for standard apps, which are subject to a 30% in-app purchase commission • 10% for the Video Partner Program, the News Partner Program, the Mini Apps Partner Program, and subscription renewals • 5% for Small Business Program apps Apple stated that it believes these rates will be highly competitive versus using in-app purchases. It is also enough that Apple will have some mild profit margin as well. Apple also filed an Administration Motion for Referral to Settlement Conference. It suggests that a settlement conference would help both parties reach resolution and narrow or resolve remaining issues.” It’s certainly true that Epic doesn’t qualify as a “small business” so 5% is out. The 15% on new and 10% on renewals is more than generous discounts from the App Store and is a way for Sweeney to claim victory and save face while getting a deal done. But Sweeney wants a Zero payment commission and will continue to waste his company’s money by continuing. Meanwhile, Apple has plenty of legal litigators ready and standing by. In the article, there is an X link to Epic’s Newsroom and their predictable spin response. But Epic doesn’t want dissent so “only certain accounts can respond”, 75% of which support Epic. I guess freedom of expression isn’t a reality for Epic either.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (8/17-8/21/26) - '”It’s an interesting contrast in how the two enterprises are viewed.” Reminds me of a passage in the movie The Big Short. The heroes were questioning how the ratings firms could rate the bonds that housed residential mortgages as AAA while The mortgages themselves were rated junk. AAPL is rated 3 Stars (Fair Value of $285 while trading at $305) by Morningstar, while the Company that is reliant on Apple is rated 4 Stars ($650 Fair Value while trading at $392). There are too many non-financial influences on ratings. My rating on Apple is 5 Stars with a Fair Value of $400 currently trading at $305.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (8/17-8/21/26) - 'The other thing to consider is that a lot of Boomers are at or nearing Required Minimum Distributions. This will require them to cash out from IRAs/401ks/403bs, even if they just (pay the tax and then) move money into equivalent investments on the non-qualified side. Wife is doing RMDs, the extra money over expenses goes into a brokerage account. When I start RMDs in a couple years, there’ll be a lot more moving into the taxable brokerage account. In that account, I have a significant amount in short term bonds, basically high interest savings, and then money spread across some other investments. That’s also where the majority of our AAPL lives. Now I think in the long run, the continued inflows of retirement money, particularly to index/target year funds, is what keeps markets rising these days, and because those are not active funds, that will help dampen some potential market swings by active accounts (active funds, hedge funds, speculators, etc.)'
on CBS visits Apple's Houston plant, interviews Tim Cook - 'Apparently at 8702 Fairbanks North Houston Rd. Not too far north and east of the Beltway 8/ Highway 290 intersection. Close to Jersey Village.'
on Omdia: The wearables market is splitting in two - 'RPL, while I completely agree with and share your reasoning for donning an Apple Watch, there also exists a use case of *not wanting* any digital distractions. Single purpose bands provide a “less is more” option for some.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (8/17-8/21/26) - 'It may go beyond being a hyperscaler to Google’s seeming plans for a hardware platform mimicking Apple.'
on Omdia: The wearables market is splitting in two - 'Can a Garmin do Contactless payments? If not it isn’t likely to continue its current little gains. Contactless on the wrist invaluable. And more so if you read about 83,000 phone thefts in London last year, mostly ‘grab ‘n runs’.'
on Apple and Trump guys butt heads over Chinese chips - 'Not sure of the answer to that Gary, but the way I read it, apple would be only using this memory in the China market anyhow… “Apple has been testing memory chips made by Chinese companies CXMT and Yangtze Memory Technologies, a prelude to potentially including them in Apple devices sold in China, according to people familiar with its efforts.”'
on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - 'Apple won. Do the math. Even if Apple only gets 5%, the savings to consumers is then only 13%. This may work for Epic selling in-App purchases for their games. 3rd parties would have to split that 13% savings with their customers, which is not compelling. If Epic ever decides to increase their fee, the risk is on 3rd parties. Only a fraction of the Epic customers will chose Epic’s store (if Epic ever returns), which was a fraction of the game segment of all App Store, which is a fraction of Services. Even if Epic does return, the measly 5% fee is upside to Apple. It’s all peanuts.'
on Apple offers Epic 5% to 15% - '“Maybe Apple can keep litigating longer than Epic can stay solvent.” Let’s hope!'
on CBS visits Apple's Houston plant, interviews Tim Cook - 'OK. It was an interview. Most of the content was superficial, as it must be. I do think it’s cool that the new facility is being built not so far away (Houston). Seeing the people milling around, the facility is clearly not “live” yet (no bunny suits). Texas is very business friendly and is developing a pretty strong semiconductor presence between DFW (TI, et al) and Austin (was Motorola, has morphed to many others) and perhaps now Houston. I’m not so sure how “employee-friendly” Texas is (“right to work state”) or how friendly main street Texans are to all the workers who come here seeking these jobs (“don’t California my Texas”), but jobs are jobs, and they do help to support the local economy. I live here in Dallas. It’s nice to see McKinney, Sherman, and even Houston grow good semiconductor jobs. re: GlobalWafer in Sherman: we are too small a volume operation in my business for them to be interested in us, especially at our current 6″ node. Perhaps, with an 8″ node conversion, they might get interested, but we would still be very boutique for them. TI, on the other hand, is building a huge facility in Sherman, which is less than a mile away from the Global Wafer factory. TI are very busy building facilities in North Texas (AKA DFW).'
on Apple and Trump guys butt heads over Chinese chips - 'Is there anything keeping Apple from using China made memory in products destined for sales in China? Right now these products require different AI models, different servers for iCloud, different app integrations, different default search engines, etc. Maybe this is already the case and Apple is trying to expand use outside of China? Any supply chain experts know the facts?'
on Saturday Apple video: Reed Jobs wants to make cancer nonlethal - 'I came to know Reed’s dad in some depth when he was 26 and I was 18, and I got to know him better throughout his mid 30s. (Steve was a special mentor & friend who introduced me to meditation and the spiritual path.) Reed today is 34. I see in Reed his dad’s intense curiosity, excitement, and fascination with understanding how complex things work. Cancer treatment involves some of the most complex science there is. Cancer is more than 400 diseases and there are thousands of ways of approaching the treatment of individual cancers (called Mechanisms of Action). The complexities and difficulties are mind boggling. Reed has done a remarkable job of teaching himself the science, and then being able to think through it strategically and rigorously. The depth and breadth of his understanding is impressive—especially for someone without advanced education in biology or pathology. His ability to make sense of the science, demystify it, and make it understandable to others is awesome. The key difference I see between Steve and Reed is that Steve was deeply spiritual in his work. Steve felt he existed to be of service to the world. Reed talks about his investing in oncology as “my thing, the thing I want to do.” It is laudable work but it is more ego driven. When Steve was in his groove, there was almost no ego. It was more a feeling of his soul expressing itself, serving others. Reed doesn’t yet seem to have the self-awareness to understand that he is not building a new entrepreneurial “mousetrap” for the world. He is investing his family office’s resources in other peoples’ businesses and research. He talks about how Yosemite will capitalize on its philanthropy/VC pipeline, rather than how he will add value as an investor/partner. He way overstates his role in the field of cancer research. Reed is NOT the person who is “making cancer less lethal.” That has been the research focus and hard work of thousands of scientists over the decades before him. As an investor, he is picking his spots inside of a vast therapeutic research ecosystem. Reed’s work is deeply needed and is laudable. It would be a great thing if he were also inspired by his dad’s deep humility and his dad’s focus on making *others* successful. At some level, I think Reed may feel trapped that he has to prove himself to be a credible Silicon Valley entrepreneur. That’s a terrible burden to carry. It means getting held hostage by other peoples’ stories. Reed would do well to give up the tone (and belief) of being entitled or needing to prove anything. Rather, he could feel a sense of awe and gratitude that he’s been given the miraculous opportunity he’s been given because of the funds he has access to. His personal mission could be more along the lines of: “Given the $X I have to invest, how do I make the greatest impact on reducing the suffering of people living with cancer?” Or “how do I prevent the most deaths or extend the most lives” (or whatever end goal resonates most with him). Then be humble. Feel compassion deeply into the suffering of others. Don’t assume he is entitled to anything. Be a servant leader. Be everything that uniquely makes Reed who he is.'
