Roger Schutte on Premarket: Apple is green - '40x is too high for the long term but earnings come in 2 weeks…so 40x will be short lived.'
on Horace Dediu: Why Apple might be eyeing the eyewear market - 'The concern I have – as a progressive lens user – is that when playing music, I end up using a set a glasses set for a 3 foot range as the changes in progressive lens sometimes shift the pitch I see (where the lens change occurs)… If apple is able to get by that shift – or the need for separate readers – I’m in……'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Replying to Mr. Bland’s belief that a price of 40x earnings is “fair value.” I find that plausible. But earnings of how much, and measured when? To me what the market is now predicting is that Apple is on the cusp (or possibly in the very early stages) of a material and possibly permanent step-up in profitability, due to many things coming together all at once: 1) Increased high-end phone sales due to attractiveness of its new AI feature, 2) increased services revenue from competing LLM chatbots sold on the AppStore as well as AI-enhanced apps of other kinds, 3) increased Mac sales due to the superiority of Apple’s silicon for training and running advanced local AI models, 4) new unreleased hardware on the near horizon, including AI glasses, visually aware AirPods, and a folding phone. Longer term, there is Apple’s absolutely amazing VisionOS that will be deployed in irresistible ways at some point. Also, I think the market is increasingly coming around to the idea that, however remarkable and world-changing AI chatbots may be, the “rent my online chatbot by the month” approach can’t possibly support the astronomical expense of the necessary server hardware and data centers. Apple’s approach of selling high-end pricey devices that do the AI locally while offering the privacy and security that is missing almost everywhere else, is a good game plan, in fact the best one around. Given all of this, when the hot air rushes out of the AI-spending balloon, where do you want your money? I’d say, you want it in AAPL. Because once the panic recedes, the smart money will quickly realize that Apple’s profitability will not be materially impaired by that collapse. It might actually increase.'
on Horace Dediu: Why Apple might be eyeing the eyewear market - 'There’s a significant difference between the market for prescription glasses on the one hand, and sunglasses and readers on the other hand. (I had cataract surgery earlier this year, and I’m still going through various strength readers to figure out the right strength for reading, computer usage, etc. Next month I have my annual check-up, where I’ll get a new prescription tuned to these new eyes. That’ll actually be 2 or 3 sets of glasses, one for every day, one single strength reading, and maybe a second single strength for computer usage.) Now having said all that, do I think this market is ripe for disruption? I dunno. Frames aren’t cheap, lenses aren’t cheap, BUT would ‘smart glasses’ generate sufficient margins to make it worth Apple’s while to enter this market? And would people whose eyes are OK, or who only need cheap readers, pay large sums for ‘smart glasses’? Again, I dunno.'
on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - 'At the current rate in five years he’ll OWN the limousine company.'
on Premarket: Apple is green - '” Google stock is sliding because of problems with Gemini. Will that affect Apple?” Maybe, but the architecture of Apple Intelligence is such that the user can change the underlying AI model without penalty (provided Apple supports that model).'
on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - '@Joseph: We’ll send a limousine. The trend is your friend.'
on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - 'Hah! Once every 5 years is more my speed….'
on Apple at 333.26: Another day, another record close - 'At the way things are moving with AAPL, maybe Joe should set up monthly dinners??'
on Evercore's June quarter preview is bullish on Apple - 'PED take: Looking forward to another record close today. Very prescient Mr PED. The 1.76% gain to $333.26 feels solid without being ‘exuberant’. Slow an steady as she goes…'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Google stock is sliding because of problems with Gemini. Will that affect Apple?'
on Premarket: Apple is green - '“what’s the upside or risks between the limit order and trailing stop?“ “The core tradeoff is that a limit order guarantees your price but gives you zero protection if the stock pulls back early, while a trailing stop protects your profits on a reversal but can lock in a lower execution price if a temporary dip triggers it. Limit Order A limit order instructs your broker to sell your shares only if Apple reaches a specific price or higher (e.g., $334.50). • The Upside: You capture the exact premium price you want. If market makers drive a fast morning spike into your target zone, your order fills seamlessly at your chosen number. •The Risks: You can completely miss the move. If Apple hits $334.45 and reverses violently into an afternoon de-hedging flush, your $334.50 limit order will sit unfilled, forcing you to chase the stock down. Trailing Stop Order A trailing stop adjusts automatically with the stock price. You set a specific dollar or percentage distance below the highest market price achieved (e.g., a trailing stop set at $1.50 below the peak). • The Upside: It lets you maximize unpredicted momentum while setting an automated safety net. If Apple ignores the $335 wall and blasts to $337, your stop trails right behind it to roughly $335.50. If the stock then reverses, you lock in the gains. • The Risks: You are highly vulnerable to morning market noise. A rapid 4% gamma squeeze is naturally volatile. If Apple hits $333.50, experiences a brief 90-second dip of $1.60 to shake out weak hands, and then rockets to $336, your $1.50 trailing stop will trigger on the dip. You will be sold out early at a lower price and miss the subsequent run. Summary Matrix for Friday’s Session Strategy Best Case Scenario Worst Case Scenario Result Ideal For… Limit Order Stock hits your target exactly and falls away. Stock misses target by pennies, then crashes. Locking in a realistic target during the morning rush. Trailing Stop Stock moves past targets; you capture the peak. A brief morning dip triggers the sale before the real move. Hands-off protection against a sudden late-day flush. To help you decide which tool fits your goal, let me know: Do you want to see how to calculate a safe trailing stop distance based on Apple’s current morning volatility? Or are you leaning toward a specific target price where you would be completely satisfied walking away?”'
on Horace Dediu: Why Apple might be eyeing the eyewear market - '“My take: I pay three times more than Dediu’s $300 for my progressive lenses. If Apple can match my costs and throw a smart camera in the bargain, I’m interested.” Philip’s take nails it from my perspective. Both my wife and I often spend a large dollar number on our glasses with progressive lenses etc. If Apple can put in some useful tech and keep things lightweight they definitely have a shot at grabbing market share. I have no loyalty to the frame manufacturers except their styling.'
on Horace Dediu: Why Apple might be eyeing the eyewear market - 'Apple has a history of taking a product that some people like, and making it a product that many now feel they want AND need it. IMHO, it is something that Apple immensely enjoys doing. (And make a lot of money doing it. )'
on Premarket: Apple is green - 'As you said to all of us in your PED3.0 event this past Saturday in Palo Alto. I’ve shared your Jerry Q’s/Joe A’s with my friends that asked for highlights re AAPL for the future. Wonderful to have met you in person and your lovely wife as well!'
on Horace Dediu: Why Apple might be eyeing the eyewear market - 'The eyewear market is controlled by a few companies each with multiple brands – and sweet margins. This is a market ripe for disruption. Perfect fit for Apple.'
on Horace Dediu: Why Apple might be eyeing the eyewear market - 'I called it as soon as AVP came out. If they can do to prescription what they have done with the watch and avp, and can somehow ‘fix’ the broken system with prescription eyeglasses (I paid over $1,000 fo each pair of progressives I get every couple of years), it is going to be beyond huge. I am sure it is what TC mentioned as part of the planned growth in Health. I am very glad it is finally, maybe, coming true.'
