Gregg Thurman on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/8-6/12/26) - '” Conversely, if the token market approaches saturation, the low cost supplier crushes the others.” In my view, as the token market nears saturation, the cost of tokens will decline, hurting all hyperscalers. Then there will be “AI” users using data center LLMs, that will look at their token expense and decide that an on-device “AI” is less expensive and more secure.'
on Ives and Kantrowitz on Apple's WWDC (video) - 'Thank you for that Robert. I do read a lot, but take much of what I read with a huge grain of salt. When the read seems to go into a lot of detail I start doubting its accuracy. That’s something I learned as a policeman, the more the detail, the bigger the lie. It’s in the details that lies are exposed. I believe I think in broader terms than what you are looking for. Granularity isn’t my strong suit What am I looking for? “AI” as it will be implemented by Apple. It doesn’t have to be a complete product today, but something Apple can build on. On-device hosted by the likes of Mac Mini, Mac Studio or a big brother to both. I believe “AI” is still in its infancy. Two, three years from now, that’s a different story. But two, three years from now, should Apple’s on-device stratagem be correct, there will only be three or four players left standing: Apple’s on-device, and maybe two others. I see them as Gemini (because of Google’s relationship with Apple) and one other. I do not see META in the future. Zuckerberg has difficulty staying focused, he shoots first, and asks questions later. Microsoft is counting on its dominance in the enterprise. But data center “AI” is going to be a security nightmare. Oracle will be the first to drop out. It truly is late to the game, and doesn’t have the finance resources to weather a competitive storm That leaves Anthropic that may survive as a more Agentic model, well suited for Apple’s on-device strategy. All of the current “AI” offerings will ultimately become dependent on Apple’s on-device strategy and Apple’s hardware. Nvidia just recognized this, which is the motive behind its GeForce RTX GPU. Nvidia can have the gamer market, what’s left of it after Apple has taken its M Series cut.'
on Pivotal moment: Mark Gurman paints Apple AI as a power struggle - 'AVP “viewed internally as a technical achievement despite being a sales flop …” “Internally”? I don’t recall a single reviewer of AVP that wasn’t absolutely gobsmacked by the “technical achievement.”'
on Pivotal moment: Mark Gurman paints Apple AI as a power struggle - 'But not weird compared to the rest of Gurman’s posts. The funniest bit is from the headline; “finally take AI seriously”. Despite all the twists and turns, Apple always took AI seriously. Look no further than the first M-series chip. Errol Brandt breaks it down for y’all.'
on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'Can someone accept the responsibility as scribe/secretary, and provide a summary to those of us who can’t make it? Thanks in advance!'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/8-6/12/26) - 'Yes, me too thinking about the $85B equity round. It’s 2%, not very dilutive. Next up, fun stuff tokenomics. Love to hear other thoughts. If Google’s cost per token beats the competition, (cost not price), then they’re smart to stomp on the accelerator. If Google’s Gemini gets tons of biz from Apple’s glorious ecosystem, then whoopee. Conversely, if the token market approaches saturation, the low cost supplier crushes the others.'
on Pivotal moment: Mark Gurman paints Apple AI as a power struggle - '” I bet it sounds weird to the people who were in the room.” To everybody except Gurman it would sound weird.'
on Ives and Kantrowitz on Apple's WWDC (video) - 'Gregg: I asked for an update out of respect for you. Over the past few weeks there have been several new WWDC-related announcements as well news about AI functionality being built into the company’s operating systems. A few of these announcements have me revisiting some of my investment timelines. I know you monitor the news and will be doing so into and through tomorrow’s keynote and the announcements from WWDC throughout this week.'
on Pivotal moment: Mark Gurman paints Apple AI as a power struggle - 'Joanna Stern provided a recap of Siri announcements over the years. In retrospect, the achievements are laughable. youtube.com/shorts/Y8NUvWzIiw4?si=b4LcK7Z9si3s5eC5'
on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'Looking forward to seeing some pics of the evening! Hope one of you lot is good with an iPhone camera. Have fun. I’d love to come but disengaging from my boat in the Med would be hard to do.'
on Ives and Kantrowitz on Apple's WWDC (video) - 'John: When most people think of Apple and AI, the feedback tends to be about Siri. There are plenty of AI implementations many of us use everyday. from a variety of providers, including Apple and in the ways you mentioned. In my view, it’s Siri we use the most and it’s in Siri’s responses we, as both consumers and shareholders, want to see conspicuous improvement. For example, driving in my car this morning I asked Siri for the “greatest hits” of a prominent and popular music artist from the 1980’s that’s been in the news lately. Asking for “greatest hits” and Siri responded with one track. Having been to this rodeo so-to-speak at least once before, (by the way, the artist has a greatest hits album in release so I wasn’t asking for Siri to build its own list), I asked for the same artist’s “essentials” and Siri responded with a tune-stack. I’ve had to interchange those two words at different times to get the results desired. I gets really maddening to work with Siri today.'
on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'Hi, David. Unfortunately, the light bulb went off too late to consider this time frame. Maybe next year, although rooms and restaurants could be tougher to set up then….'
on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'If this happens next year, maybe my wife & I can return. My wife & I visited Boston & friends in Dunstable last month.'
on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'BTW, the name of the hotel will be staying at is the Graduate, a Hilton hotel, in Palo Alto.'
on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'Thanks to SactoJoe for the heavy lifting on coordinating this. My wife’s booked our flight (but she’s not joining us) and hope to get a room in Santana Row. We’ll be going to the San Jose Obon that weekend and the Mountain View Obon the following weekend. Hope to see folks at the meet-up and maybe bump into each other at either Obons. .'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/8-6/12/26) - 'Anyone eagerly getting in line to jump on the SpaceX IPO or to grab shares on the first day of trading? I won’t be jumping in around the IPO. If I choose to acquire shares I’ll wait until after the hype. It’s neither an urgency or a necessity. There are plenty of places to profit in today’s market.'
on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'Some additional data. Thus far, we have about 18 folks committed, about 4 of whom are couples bringing wives. We’ve reserved a banquet room accommodating up to 30. For that room, there are five special menus, but we can also make our own menu, with up to 4 different entrees, 2 different salads, and three different desserts. There are also hors d’oeuvres available, priced individually, plus the regular menu appetizers, also priced individually. We haven’t yet settled on the exact menu, but I’m pushing the make our own menu, which will run about $80/meal, the nature of which I’m getting votes on. We need to decide on the menu a week in advance, which will be by the 4th of July. Donna and I are booking a hotel for Friday and Saturday. So bottom line: We have a hard limit of 30 for the banquet room, but all are of course welcome. Sacto Joe'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/8-6/12/26) - 'Fred: Thank you for your thoughtful insights! I’ll contrast Google (Alphabet) with Meta both on balance sheet strength and coherence on a discernible strategic plan and I’ll line up with Alphabet. In my view Microsoft is oversold and I expect a rebound in the share price over the balance of the calendar year. I also believe Broadcom is now oversold though I consider last week’s sell-off health for the market and for the company. In my research AI capex is likely to increase, there’s sufficient capital to fund demand and there are some winners for sure (as well as some losers) that will be revealed over the next few years. I think Alphabet’s recent equity funding round is noteworthy. That’s one hyperscaler definitely monetizing AI at this time. '
on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'I woke up late to see this…. And haven’t even checked my email…. In fact, I’m late to Starbucks (a Sunday ritual), so I’ll read the rest in the car line….'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/8-6/12/26) - 'I’m torn on what to do to exploit WWDC this year. My in-the-money strategy (wish I had thought of this years earlier) has worked extremely well for me, but we’re closing in on July expiry and I’ve started sticking my neck out a bit (the lure of greater yields). My recent behavior has concerned me. I see room for one more position upgrade, but the risk factor has my finger shaking when I think about hitting the enter button. Sticking with my JUL $300/$305 Call Spreads (220) through to expiry yields ~257% ROI since April 8. I should be more than satisfied with that, but by nature I’m a risk taker. It isn’t the money that pushes me, it’s the winning. The money is just a way to keep score.'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/8-6/12/26) - 'Agree completely on Apple, both points. NVDA presents a quandary. Its FPE, at 20.6, is very attractive. Its EV/Sales is high, at 19. Their GM at 75% is high. I’d bet the current move is literally and figuratively a correction to account for the concern about sustaining the high GM. Google may be over-corrected. They own 5 % to 6% of SpaceX, which allays any concerns about their aggressive CAPEX. They already have a strong Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. They may also have a very competitive cost per token. If the AI boom levels off Google will likely out perform.'
on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'A PED meetup in Boston the evening before Horace’s Apple Investor Conference in September would work for me.'
on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'I’ll be driving up from the LA area. Don’t tell the CHP.'
on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'It’s in July. Wish I could make it, if only to meet everyone in person. 🙁'
on This week's Apple trading strategies (6/8-6/12/26) - 'On Friday’s Fast Money episode (in addition to a conversation about Apple in light of next week’s WWDC event), mention was made there’s a discernible uptick in retail activity in stores surrounding data center construction activity. This makes sense with the number of electricians, plumbers and other construction workers busy at the sites. On the June 5th episode of Bloomberg Surveillance TV, data centers were described as the “factories” of this industrial revolution. Clearly we are seeing the trillions of dollars being invested and to be invested an AI capacity and delivery systems already working its way into the economy. The point was made there isn’t currently a limit on available capital to be borrowed or raised to fund AI growth. Disclaimer: I’m not recommending or endorsing any stocks for purchase. I’m expressing my own opinions and sharing my own views for conversation. Each person should perform their own due diligence on the suitability of any equity or other investment vehicle for their own purposes and in light of each person’s unique needs and circumstances. How will Apple deliver AI to its customers and how much of Apple’s plans will be unveiled tomorrow? Rain or shine tomorrow, I like the company’s prospects and understand it will take years to more fully deliver AI to customers and do so on device. I believe that futures begins tomorrow. The installed base, in my view, is a huge competitive advantage for now. I consider Apple’s current share price attractive for long-term acquisition. On retail, I like Walmart following the recent post-earnings sell-off. I also like Broadcom following this week’s post-earnings pulldown. Among the financials I do like Goldman, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase. There’s a lot of IPO activity occurring this year and capital being borrowed to fuel growth, especially among AI-related enterprises. I agree with Walmart’s executive team and consider the giant retailer to be a technology company. I just became a Walmart+ member and picked-up the OnePay card for 5% back on all Walmart purchases. I’m impressed by management’s approach to growth. On Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast there’s a recent interview with Goldman’s CEO David Solomon. The conversations is about AI and also Goldman’s role in the current and upcoming major IPOs. I’ve distributed links to all of the referenced podcasts through the Apple 3.0 Slack group Other Stocks channel. I like Walmart and Costco – my two favorite household shopping destinations. With tens or hundreds of thousands of jobs being added to the economy each month at this time along with continuing growth in data center development, I expect growth in revenue and earnings for both enterprises. I expect the slate of IPO offerings this year and capital acquisition by enterprises through stock and debt offerings to benefit Goldman, Morgan Stanley and other major finical firms. AI and AI-related development is huge business and let’s not forget the importance of this week’s SpaceX IPO. On Apple, I consider it a buy long-term at the current price and look forward to tomorrow’s announcements! What are your thoughts?'
on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'Boston is practically in PED’s back yard, so that, at least, would be an easy trip. As a kid and as a prep school and university alum, I’ve driven the southern New Hampshire / Vermont and northern Massachusetts east-west byways many, many times. There are some gorgeous views out there in the sticks.'
on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'July or June? Is it not associated with WWDC this week?'
on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'It’s at Cafe Pro Bono in Palo Alto on July 11. Joe has not set a time yet – maybe a cocktail hour before dinner would be a good idea? Sort of a meet and mingle before sitting down for dinner. Thanks to Joe for all his work setting this up!'
on Who's coming to the July 11 Apple 3.0 meetup? - 'If this is successful, I hope there’ll be a Boston meet. In the meantime, safe travels to PED and others attending.'


