Recent Comments

  • Robert Stack on Survey finds high iPhone Duo return rate - 'Thx Bart. Interesting overall, but especially this: “The company [Apple] has stated only that it can identify affected batches by serial number and is replacing damaged units under warranty.” This would seem to indicate that Apple at least knows via the serial number the specific supplier who is responsible for the defect. While the overall failure rate is low right now, I hope more of the units don’t fail over time with use.'
  • David Emery on High praise for AMD's answer to the Apple Mac mini - 'Did I miss the -price- comparison?'
  • Fred Stein on High praise for AMD's answer to the Apple Mac mini - 'Upvoted ben, If you track this, please keep us informed. The market segment, high-end compute and local servers, is not well covered. Consumer and cloud get all the coverage. I suspect Apple can make big gains in this segment.'
  • Jonny T on Survey finds high iPhone Duo return rate - 'People who enjoy tech but don’t have the cash most likely, hope Apple has a database and they go to the back of line in future…'
  • Bart Yee on Survey finds high iPhone Duo return rate - 'Asking Gemini gave an indeterminate answer because it’s not clear just how many have been truly reported vs fakes, AI generated reports, or other non-genuine reporting. “ • In-store retail observations. Reporting from AppleInsider documented roughly 6 broken demo units across 20 visited Apple Stores during launch week. Anecdotal reports from a single Dallas store claimed around 6 customer returns per day, alongside multiple photos of broken demo units in China. • Broad media estimates. Coverage from PhoneArena and YouTube tech analysts estimates total public complaints in the hundreds to roughly 1,000 units. Against an estimated 6 million units sold, that equates to an approximate failure rate of under 0.02%, though community calculations based on store demo failures suggest the true rate could be closer to 1 in 300 (0.33%).” 1000 failures out of an estimated 6M sold is 0.017%. However: “Reports have not tapered off to zero. While the initial flood of viral launch-week posts has slowed, new buyers are still actively reporting inner display cracks as backordered units arrive. Recent reporting and community activity highlight several key factors behind the ongoing reports: • Ongoing failures on newly delivered units. Tech outlets like PhoneArena note that Apple has not resolved the defect in shipping inventory. Buyers receiving delayed preorders are still experiencing screens cracking within hours of unboxing. • Extended shipping backlogs. Because initial stock sold out quickly—with wait times stretching into December and January—a steady trickle of new customers is opening first-batch devices for the first time each week. • Suspected supplier material flaw. Supply-chain leakers like Kang on Weibo (via Tom’s Guide) report that Apple traced the defect to substandard materials from one of its two hinge suppliers rather than a fundamental design flaw. Until existing inventory from that supplier clears out, affected units will continue to surface. • Moderation and media fatigue. Part of the perceived slowdown online comes from heavy moderation on dedicated forums like the iPhone Duo subreddit, where users report that new crack posts are frequently removed, as well as news outlets moving past the initial launch-week cycle.” “Which of the two hinge suppliers is suspected?” “Neither Apple nor the supply-chain leakers have publicly named which specific supplier is at fault. While leaker Kang claimed the defect stems from substandard materials from one of Apple’s two hinge suppliers, he withheld the company’s name. Supply-chain reporting identifies the primary companies involved in manufacturing the iPhone Duo’s hinge assembly, along with where each stands regarding the controversy: • The two primary hinge assemblers. According to industry reporting from TrendForce (citing ZDNet), U.S.-based Amphenol and Taiwan-based Shin Zu Shing are Apple’s two main hinge suppliers. Amphenol was initially the primary supplier before Shin Zu Shing took over a larger share due to Amphenol’s low production yields. Neither company has been publicly singled out as the source of the defective material, nor has either issued a public statement. • Component maker Fine M-Tec’s denial. Because the hinge uses over 100 individual parts, early online speculation targeted South Korean hinge-plate maker Fine M-Tec. As reported by AppleInsider, Fine M-Tec formally denied that its components caused the screen failures and threatened legal action against anyone blaming its parts without verification. • Apple’s silence on the root cause. Apple has not confirmed whether the failures come from a main hinge assembler, a sub-component vendor, or relaxed quality-control inspections on the assembly line. The company has stated only that it can identify affected batches by serial number and is replacing damaged units under warranty.” You can read PhoneArena’s article here: https://www.phonearena.com/news/iphone-duo-cracking-issue-did-not-go-away_id184812'
  • Bart Yee on 2027 will be a big year for foldables, led by Apple - 'Recall the recent Counterpoint report on Q3 revenues. https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/global-smartphone-revenue-defies-shipment-slump-rising-3-yoy Key stated points: Total global revenue = $114B as rising prices and premiumization offset a 19% YoY decline in shipments. Apple took 50% of all revenues ($57.6B reported) while “only” selling 56.5M out of 254.7M total, or 21-22% depending on who’s counting. 50% of total revenue on just 21% of total shipments or sales. “Samsung ranked second with a 19% revenue share, with revenues up 14% YoY, “while retaining its position as the largest smartphone brand” by shipments with a 22% share.” I’m sure that made Samsung’s sales folks feel good, “retained largest smartphone brand”, something the Samsung and Android tech press outlets can trumpet to the world. “The average selling price (ASP) surged 27% YoY to a record $442, driven by a higher contribution from premium devices and memory-driven price increases across OEMs.“ This is true, but for many different reasons, and it’s important to differentiate. -> True, Android OEM’s had little choice but to increase prices to help offset memory costs. The floor rose upwards. Android OEM’s also decreased sales of unprofitable budget phones, wiping out whole tiers of lower priced shipments, accounting for the 19% drop in shipments YoY. -> Did the Z Foldables and Android premium phones help raise ASP’s? Yes, somewhat, but it isn’t as big as the comments suggest. Why? Because of the 254.7M – Apple’s 56.5M = 198.2M Android sales left. Android actual total ASP was $114.0B – Apple’s $57.6B = $56.4B / 198.2M = $285 across all Android vendors. When Counterpoint says the “entire global ASP” was a record $442, it was ($114B / 254.7M sold = ~$442-447) it’s true but who really pulled that upwards? Apple pulled that global ASP up! Android ASP’s Samsung $367, -5% in shipments, does that seem like Z Foldables made a huge difference? Yes, because without them, it would have been around $280-300! Xiaomi $210, -29% in shipments, still 3rd in shipments 12%. ASP was $202 in Q2 (from $160 YoY) and in Q3 rose to $210. Oppo was $267 -39% shipments, 9% Vivo was $258, -33% shipments, 8% Others 26% of sales 67M, -28% You can plainly see that an Apple sale worth $1031 per Counterpoint, around $1019 by my reckoning isn’t “an equivalent” to an Android sales left, it’s worth $1031/ $285 =3.618x more worth or value. Over Samsung 2.8x Over Xiaomi 4.9X Now Huawei pulls “the rest” up a fair amount but their total sales of ~13.5M, about 5% market share with an ASP ~$550-600, is 93% mostly concentrated in China sales but since it’s only 5% of the total, and only 20% of the remainder 67M, it still has a limited effect on total Android ASP. That’s why Apple focuses us on total iPhone revenues, no matter how it’s earned – higher sales, higher prices, favorable premium mix, or all of the above. Research orgs concentrate on sales, shipments, as if widgets sales are the end all for hardware companies, and yes, it important, but what you make, and ultimately what you get to take home is much more important, and sustainable or not. With Samsung having 2 straight quarters of smartphone negative profit losses, it’s not hard to imagine the other makers & Chinese OEM’s also reporting losses in Q3 and more for Q4. Xiaomi reports on the 17th or 18th.'
  • Bart Yee on 2027 will be a big year for foldables, led by Apple - 'Daniel, Smart Analytics, like Omdia, Counterpoint, and IDC all seem to concern themselves the most with “shipments” into the markets they serve, suggesting that those shipments are a proxy for eventual sales. In many ways, these articles are rather self-serving for many of their Far East clients, all of whom have their management and manufacturing bases in Asia save for Apple’s management. As such, a lot of these reports tout very short term quarterly rises or falls in YoY market share percentages, changes in maker/vendor market share percentages for the quarter, and vague to fairly specific numbers. Of course, the actual statistics are properly hidden in much more detailed reports available for sale or purchase, that’s how they make their money. IMO, many times these reports are written in such a way as to bolster or prop up sales or shipment projections, sometimes for specific vendors. When the news is bad, they don’t hold back though. I suspect the clients they write for are the sales departments of each vendor, and those departments are concerned with shipments and sales volume numbers, something that can be touted when good, and minimized when bad. When the actual numbers are bad, the percentage declines can soften the blow, PR wise. Except for Counterpoint, few discuss revenues except in general terms, high end tier vs midrange vs formerly budget. When everyone’s prices were similar, > shipments = winning. After Apple and Samsung increased prices above $799 to >$1000, suddenly there was a much higher revenue stream to be had with higher ASP’s. That’s why Apple can be the 5th highest vendor in India, but still be the highest by Value sold because 80-90% of India’s smartphone sales are midrange to budget, much like Android’s sales have been for the past 5-7 years. These research organizations lump sales together as if they are equivalent to each other, when plainly, they are not.'
  • ben luna on High praise for AMD's answer to the Apple Mac mini - 'Linux too. What’s interesting is that both versions have the same price based on my attempts to see the purchase price from the two vendors who sell them. Also interesting is that availability seems to be pretty low. It would be interesting to see how many they make/sell over the next few quarters.'
  • Bill Fouche on High praise for AMD's answer to the Apple Mac mini - 'Omitted from Brandt’s side-by-side comparison: … Strix Halo runs Windows. Windows sucks. MacOS vastly better.'
  • David Drinkwater on 2027 will be a big year for foldables, led by Apple - '“Apple is not just gonna walk in here and transform the cell phone market.” 2007'
  • David Drinkwater on Apple soars to $356.27, its third record close this week. - 'The yield on AAPL was one of the standouts on a recent portfolio review. It is what it is, and I did ask about the buyback with my broker, but I’d still like to see it more like 2% and a controllable option for DRIP. Even at 1% it would be meaningful “I’m just gonna retire” money.'
  • Steven Philips on Trump wants Cook at Nvidia - 'I love it when a good panel comes together! 🙂'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple soars to $356.27, its third record close this week. - 'Which means the Apple split is going to be soon and will be 2 to 3:1, or when Apple gets up around $500 to $550/share and the split will be 4 or 5:1. IMO.'
  • Robert Paul Leitao on Gene Munster: Like Apple after Jobs, Nvidia has an urgency problem - 'Richard: The new CEO of NVIDIA and the new members of senior management that will need to be appointed as well as, perhaps, new members of the Board of Directors that also may need to be appointed, will all be very busy in the aftermath of this unfolding scandal. This is the reason Tim Cook and Johnny Srouji are not likely to consider the position of CEO if offered or attempts made to recruit either of the two gentlemen. The work involved at the start may have less to do with moving the company forward and more to do with cleaning up the company’s recent past. The corporate culture needs to change and mentoring a new culture takes much time, effort and patience.'
  • Joseph Bland on Apple soars to $356.27, its third record close this week. - 'Not sure about splits or dividends going forward. We do have a new CEO, after all. It’s all about how the free cash flow gusher is seen to grow the company’s value. Buying back stock with a tiny tax hit is still making sense, especially if Apple keeps growing at it’s present rate. But dividends are a distant second use case, IMO, from the POV of Apple Inc. Recall that it’s employees are also AAPL owners, and part of the attraction is the growing value over time of holding AAPL, Splits, OTOH, add no real intrinsic value, but do add a kind of attractiveness to some. It used to be, as others here have pointed out, that you had to buy a whole share of AAPL, which would make it harder to buy APPL for some folks, but that is no longer true. Also, inflation has dropped the dollar’s buying power, so that needs to be factored in. I’m inclined to go along with you, Fred. I think the split would probably like to go to about $125/share.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Which brings me to Nvidia and their recent decision to approve $150 B in buybacks. Clearly, they see what I see as how it truly juiced Apple’s valuation over the last 13 years (i.e., it was NOT a gimmick!). If you look at a complete view of AAPL’s cash value in split adjusted shares on Apple’s stock app, you see the true impact of buybacks on volume plus the volume leading up to the Great Recession when institutions bailed on AAPL. The volumes dropped to about half, and stayed there, even after the iPhone hit the market. It wasn’t until buybacks started in 2013 that you saw volumes begin to shrink, and then volume percentage shrank far faster than the percentage of stocks that were taken out of the float. Nvidia’s plan is clearly to emulate Apple’s buyback strategy. But here’s the point, as the valuation behind AI and Nvidia has begun to be recalibrated: Apple’s valuation took a real hit following the G.R., but it’s actual value was always growing underneath the perceived value. But nothing says that is going to be the case with Nvidia, at least not yet. If there’s a huge amount of fluff in Nvidia’s valuation versus it’s real value, then yes, the price per existing share goes down – but only because it deserves to. That was NOT the case with Apple – quite the opposite, in fact. Apple began buybacks because management perceived it’s true potential value, and realized that they had a gusher of cash to buy it back with that they literally couldn’t find a decent use for. Yes, Nvidia has a gusher of cash. But how has it used that gusher? It has bought up a bunch of startups. And it has given money to fund its CUSTOMER’S purchasing of data centers that are then populated with it’s product. That’s not a great business plan, as no less than Horace Dediu has recently pointed out.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'One other point about that 10 year chart: Check out the volume at the bottom of the chart. it’s very clear that split-adjusted volume of trades has been decreasing over time. It’s even more dramatic if you look at the lifetime chart. What happened? Back in the era of the Great Recession, Apple’s split-adjusted volume was HUGE compared to now. Note that the insitutions effectively bailed on AAPL following the G.R., but even so, adjusted volume was high – until buybacks started up. That is not a coincidence. That is a direct result of buybacks.'
  • Robert Stack on Survey finds high iPhone Duo return rate - 'And I for one would love to know more about the failure rate of the hinge and associated screen cracking. Will the failure rate increase over time and use?Has a design flaw been identified yet? Did I just miss a more detailed briefing on this whole issue?'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Another point about the 10 year AAPL price chart: If you look at the overall “shape” of the chart, AAPL is accelerating its price growth. That means that the 10 year percentage increase that is presently 119.4 X (was 120 X at $360/share) is almost certainly going to increase as the years go by – until we hit mid-year 2020 and the move that led to the 1st time AAPL, in my memory, hit a 40+ valuation. Note that, when AAPL doubles from its present ATH, that will effectively double the percentage increase in price…. So not a 120 X increase, but a 240 X increase…. (Posted at 3:45 PM PST, 11/13/’26.)'
  • Fred Stein on Apple soars to $356.27, its third record close this week. - 'I’d bet on 2:1, and raise the dividend by a penny/qtr each year which would be 2 cents pre-split. Or wait another year. No pressure.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Apple soars to $356.27, its third record close this week. - '@Gregg: I wasn’t an Apple holder back when it split 7 to 1. I’m hoping it can get back to those levels soon.'
  • Joseph Bland on Premarket: Apple is green - 'Hi, Bart. As I mentioned to John yesterday, the close at EOD doesn’t mean the volume has stopped going up. If you check on Apple Stocks right now, you’ll see that volume equals 39.1 M vs “Avg Vol” of 42.58, so still under average, but higher than 34 M trades. Please don’t shoot the messenger!'
  • Gregg Thurman on Apple soars to $356.27, its third record close this week. - 'Historically Apple splits AAPL at around $450 +/- $25. 2:1 or 3:1. We’re close indeed.'
  • Michael Goldfeder on Apple soars to $356.27, its third record close this week. - '@Adam: Banana or stock?'
  • Adam Foster on Apple soars to $356.27, its third record close this week. - 'I sure am looking for a split soon!'
  • Fred Stein on High praise for AMD's answer to the Apple Mac mini - 'Dr. Brandt really helps. But there’s more, a subtle point. Think about memory first, especially now that it’s expensive. Apple’s M4 systems get more tokens, faster from that memory because of what Dr. Brandt says about unified memory and co-optimized chip and OS. That has two implications: 1) Apple memory is worth more, and can sell for more; 2) Apple gets more new customers for life, especially for high-end compute workloads.'
  • Robert Stack on High praise for AMD's answer to the Apple Mac mini - 'An amazing bit of trivia from one of my friends from Taiwan: AMD CEO Lisa Su and Jensen Huang are cousins. Though both were born in Taiwan, they didn’t meet until after both had become established in the US tech industry.'
  • John Konopka on Premarket: Apple is green - '[Sorry if this is a double post. I got the dreaded ‘moderation’ message.] Apple was up slightly for the day on more or less normal volume. NVIDIA dropped about 2% on over 3x normal volume. That’s a lot of churn. It appears that you can listen to the NVIDIA earnings discussion here: https (colon) //investor.nvidia (dot) com/events-and-presentations/events-and-presentations/event-details/default.aspx They want you to register for this. I don’t know if there is a way to listen without registration. I’m sure we’ll get the highlights on CNBC and elsewhere. For me the two big questions are how much illegal revenue did they get from China that will be lost now that it has been exposed and what is the succession plan? As part of the plan will Jensen still be around as an advisor of some sort? One of the great things Steve did was to build Apple to be able to run independently of him. It doesn’t seem like Jensen did this. As of last May: https (colon) //247wallst (dot) com/investing/2026/05/04/50-of-nvidia-employees-are-now-worth-over-25-million-how-nvidia-created-thousands-of-millionaires/ Most of the talent at NVIDIA are independently wealthy. If they are not happy they can easily jump ship or go off and create a start-up or just go somewhere and paint landscapes. Maybe this is a chance for Apple to pick up some talent? I only focus on NVIDIA because their rise or fall would likely affect Apple.'
  • Bart Yee on Premarket: Apple is green - 'AAPL closed up $1.39 near its low of the day at $356.27, another ATCH, after rocketing up at the open to $360.83, another ATIDH. Volume was 34M shares, vs NVDA volume of 359M or 10X higher, suggesting there’s still a lot of investors out there trying to figure out their AI positions. I suspect we will now start seeing rotations in and out of tech stocks as fund managers jockey themselves around, trying to set themselves up for the last 6 weeks of the quarters. With NVDA cratering itself, many managers will be looking for something else that makes their end of year funds positions look good and cover up the losses or reduced profits they’ve recently had to take.'
  • David Emery on High praise for AMD's answer to the Apple Mac mini - 'CUDA vs alternatives is a huge deal, Just as Mac OS is a major part of a lock to Apple hardware :-), CUDA is a lock to NVIDIA hardware. An alternative software infrastructure would need to provide equivalent functionality AND a migration path from existing CUDA-based applications to the alternative. And I wonder just how much using Python over a statically compiled language is costing AI Hyperscalers in compute (in)efficiency….'