Average iPhone selling price in the U.S. jumped $92 (10.6%) in a year -- CIRP

From "Filling the ASP Vacuum - CIRP's US-WARP 2022 Q4 Estimate" posted Monday on Consumer Intelligence Research Partners' new Substack:

Until the end of fiscal 2018, Apple reported overall iPhone unit sales and investors and others could estimate an iPhone Average Selling Price (ASP) to analyze margins and profitability. iPhone ASP was closely tracked and widely predicted in advance of Apple’s quarterly earnings reports.

CIRP data generated an analogous statistic that allowed similar analysis. While we did not have access to retailer discounts, global unit sales, etc., CIRP customer purchase data generates reliable estimates of model and storage mix of iPhones sold in the US. With that data and the suggested retail prices for each model and storage configuration, CIRP created US-WARP (weighted average retail price). We started publishing US-WARP estimates while Apple was still releasing ASP numbers and the numbers tracked nicely.

When Apple stopped releasing its ASP number, US-WARP was there to fill the gap. This allows investors and others to perform their margin and profitability analysis.

Cue the ASP fever chart:

Apple iphone asp cirp

My take: For those of us who remember the good old days when Apple released unit sales, it really has felt like a data vacuum. CIRP offers a good proxy, if only for the U.S. market.

4 Comments

  1. Neal Guttenberg said:
    The trend seems to have started with the iPhone 13 model. We would need the next quarter’s numbers in order to see what things are for the iPhone 14 models, although the numbers are probably going to be skewed lower secondary to shortages of the higher priced models.

    1
    November 21, 2022
  2. Gregg Thurman said:
    it really has felt like a data vacuum.

    Unit sales data was pretty handy, but it took our eyes off the really important metric: REVENUE.

    How many times have we argued that Apple makes more money per item sold than the competition, then get upset because unit volume didn’t satisfy our expectation, all the while revenue was going up.

    No, I like the way Apple reports sales, and ignore the analytic firm’s estimates.

    This reminds me of a guy that built a super computer (back in the early 2000s) using a farm of PCs networked together. He rented a store front and sat there watching TV and reading the paper. Eventually he sold his only super computer and did quite well. I think he also got a job maintaining it for the buyer.

    My point is that unit volume is an interesting metric, however, it in no way is a measure of success.

    2
    November 21, 2022
    • S Lawton said:
      “Over five thousand employees have left OF THEIR OWN VOLITION” Not only saving salaries but also unemployment, severance packages and stock options.

      0
      November 21, 2022

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