From "Filling the ASP Vacuum - CIRP's US-WARP 2022 Q4 Estimate" posted Monday on Consumer Intelligence Research Partners' new Substack:
Until the end of fiscal 2018, Apple reported overall iPhone unit sales and investors and others could estimate an iPhone Average Selling Price (ASP) to analyze margins and profitability. iPhone ASP was closely tracked and widely predicted in advance of Apple’s quarterly earnings reports.
CIRP data generated an analogous statistic that allowed similar analysis. While we did not have access to retailer discounts, global unit sales, etc., CIRP customer purchase data generates reliable estimates of model and storage mix of iPhones sold in the US. With that data and the suggested retail prices for each model and storage configuration, CIRP created US-WARP (weighted average retail price). We started publishing US-WARP estimates while Apple was still releasing ASP numbers and the numbers tracked nicely.
When Apple stopped releasing its ASP number, US-WARP was there to fill the gap. This allows investors and others to perform their margin and profitability analysis.
Cue the ASP fever chart:
My take: For those of us who remember the good old days when Apple released unit sales, it really has felt like a data vacuum. CIRP offers a good proxy, if only for the U.S. market.