From Yvonne Lau's "How a mass lockdown at the world’s biggest iPhone factory is India’s big chance to beat out China as Apple’s favorite supplier" posted Saturday by Fortune:
After the latest Zhengzhou lockdown, Apple asked a second supplier—Taiwan’s Pegatron—to start cranking out its latest iPhone model in Tamil Nadu, according to a Bloomberg report. Foxconn now plans to quadruple its India workforce in the next two years to 70,000, says a Reuters report...
The Modi government has recognized the current moment as a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” to sway global companies as China’s zero-COVID strategy rattles their supply chains, Akshobh Giridharadas, adviser at business advocacy group U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Forum, told Fortune. “India has limited time—and [Narendra Modi] realizes that. The government is fast-tracking policies that will give India an advantage as companies increasingly diversify their supply chains,” he said...
Analysts now expect a bigger and quicker-than-expected iPhone production shift to India. In September, JPMorgan analysts predicted that India could produce 5% of Apple’s iPhone 14 inventory and 25% in three years. Ming-Chi Kuo, an Apple-focused tech analyst at Hong Kong–based TF International Securities, said last week that the Zhengzhou lockdown prompted Foxconn and Apple to accelerate iPhone production in India. Kuo expects iPhones made in India—still by Foxconn—to grow by at least 150% next year.
“Foxconn’s medium- to long-term goal is to ship 40% to 45% of iPhones from India, versus the current 2% to 4%, meaning Foxconn’s iPhone production capacity in India will increase rapidly in the next few years,” Kuo suggests.
[Counterpoint Research's Tarun] Pathak believes that Apple “can scale in India” with iPhone production in the country likely to double next year. But he argues that India contributing half of all iPhone assembly worldwide is an “ambitious” goal owing to China’s still-outsize role in the iPhone supply chain and stiff competition from other emerging markets.
My take: Different country, different culture. The transition is likely to be bumpy.