From Yvonne Lau's "How a mass lockdown at the world’s biggest iPhone factory is India’s big chance to beat out China as Apple’s favorite supplier" posted Saturday by Fortune:
After the latest Zhengzhou lockdown, Apple asked a second supplier—Taiwan’s Pegatron—to start cranking out its latest iPhone model in Tamil Nadu, according to a Bloomberg report. Foxconn now plans to quadruple its India workforce in the next two years to 70,000, says a Reuters report...
The Modi government has recognized the current moment as a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” to sway global companies as China’s zero-COVID strategy rattles their supply chains, Akshobh Giridharadas, adviser at business advocacy group U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Forum, told Fortune. “India has limited time—and [Narendra Modi] realizes that. The government is fast-tracking policies that will give India an advantage as companies increasingly diversify their supply chains,” he said...
Analysts now expect a bigger and quicker-than-expected iPhone production shift to India. In September, JPMorgan analysts predicted that India could produce 5% of Apple’s iPhone 14 inventory and 25% in three years. Ming-Chi Kuo, an Apple-focused tech analyst at Hong Kong–based TF International Securities, said last week that the Zhengzhou lockdown prompted Foxconn and Apple to accelerate iPhone production in India. Kuo expects iPhones made in India—still by Foxconn—to grow by at least 150% next year.
“Foxconn’s medium- to long-term goal is to ship 40% to 45% of iPhones from India, versus the current 2% to 4%, meaning Foxconn’s iPhone production capacity in India will increase rapidly in the next few years,” Kuo suggests.
[Counterpoint Research's Tarun] Pathak believes that Apple “can scale in India” with iPhone production in the country likely to double next year. But he argues that India contributing half of all iPhone assembly worldwide is an “ambitious” goal owing to China’s still-outsize role in the iPhone supply chain and stiff competition from other emerging markets.
My take: Different country, different culture. The transition is likely to be bumpy.
Yeah! Tim Cook has decades of experience with China. He has to keep an open mind on India.
We’re at the ‘knee of the curve’ in three ways, more tech manufacturing in India, more purchasing of Apple (and other foreign tech products) in India, and cultural acceptance of these trends.
What was once exploitation, now becomes empowerment.
Increasing manufacturing in India is not just about China.
Because the iphones to be made in India aren’t just for exporting.
The reason it’s taking Apple so long to develop a manufacturing infrastructure in India is because of their anti-colonial laws which are very strict about foreign companies importing products that aren’t also made there.
It seems pretty obvious that the planned increase of manufacturing Apple products in India is also about planning to increase selling more Apple products in India.
Yes, India has a much weaker economy than China, but that doesn’t change the fact that people everywhere on the planet use mobile phones now. Fact: India, has the second largest population on the planet with over 1.3 billion people.
I find it disappointing how shallow the “analyst” reporting is, that they keep skipping over this very salient point.
The good news of course, is that Apple is continuing to execute their playbook rolling out new products and services to more countries successfully expanding their market share every year. To me, that’s the bigger story.
From Mint reporting Oct. 5, 2022, India iphone production and consumption were fairly aligned but growing rapidly as 5G iPhones became popular, desirable and somewhat more affordable to aspiring India users. Excess capacity was being built up deliberately as production lines, worker recruiting and training, plus quality control was becoming established. As one can imagine, trying to rapidly build more production facilities, plus repeat the above processes and man-women power does take valuable time and effort. Central to this, as discussed in the Fortune article, is still the parts and assemblies infrastructure that China already enjoys and the need to export from China and import into India. Duplicating iPhone parts and support infrastructure in India will take concurrent effort, time, money, and government cooperation.
“Apple Inc. is likely to set a new sales record for iPhones in India this year, three industry experts said, soon after it began manufacturing the iPhone 14 in the country months ahead of schedule. The company hit an India record for iPhones in 2021 and is expected to cross those numbers this year on the back of strong sales of older devices.
“iPhones should see some growth in 2022 over last year. In 2021, iPhone shipments were around 4.8 million. This year, we are expecting it to be around 5.5 to 6 million,” said Navkendar Singh, associate vice-president of devices research, IDC India, South Asia, and ANZ. Singh noted that 2021 was a massive jump over 2020 as well.”
That’s unit sales growth of about 25% YOY. Older devices include the iPhone SE, XR, 11, 12, 13. New iPhone 14 production is probably slated mostly for export rather than high India consumption due to it high price relative to older iPhones. Surely their will be enough for any India market demand but rapid iPhone 14 production growth will try to offset any China shortfall. Obviously, Apple will have to absorb increased costs in this production move since parts export, transport, and import will be costly, and new India production is a new added expense. Welcome, planned and now quickly empowered.
livemint dot com/news/iphone-sales-in-india-headed-for-another-record-11664908733721.html
tech dot hindustantimes dot com/tech/news/iphone-sales-likely-to-be-around-7-million-in-india-in-2022-techarc-71662715567060.html
“Sales of premium smartphone iPhone are likely to be a little over 7 million in India this year, market research and analyst firm Techarc said on Thursday.
iPhone user mark is expected to cross 20 million this year, the firm said.
“Even though, iPhone is not a mass market smartphone, it has still enjoyed remarkable love and acceptance in India. Since its official launch in 2008, when just a little over 50,000 iPhones were sold in the country, today the iPhone is set to sell a little over 7 million smartphone units by the end of 2022,” Techarc said.
According to the firm, the iPhone added 10 million users in the last six years.
“The cohorts of frequent international business travelers and NRIs have a higher penetration of iPhones. At the same time, the states and union territories of India which have a significant population working outside the country also have a higher proportion of iPhone users.”
“The very high aspirational value of the iPhone is driving the gradual but steady switch from Android smartphones to iPhones. Currently, only a foldable smartphone form factor is something that can help Android ecosystem to retain its users in the ultra-premium category, which is a blend of productivity and uniqueness, adding to the personality of the users,” Techarc said.
Techarc said that a total of around 162 million smartphones are expected to be sold in India in 2022.
The research and analysis firm said that iPhone has captured over 80 per cent of the ultra-luxury segment where Samsung is the only other major brand while others including OnePlus, OPPO, Vivo, Xiaomi and Google are attempting to carve their market pie.“
I assume NRIs to be non-resident Indians, a major number of these being US, UK, EU, Asia and other international locales based. India’s Apple influence is vast.
So currently, the high end India Market is only at best 4-5% (about 7-7.5M units) of the total market, but certainly that will grow as their economy grows, iPhone popularity increases, aspirational demand increases, and supply ramps up. Just as we’ve seen in general, introduce iPhone (and other Apple products) to an eager population with means and affordability, and growth is, if not exponential for now, high linear to geometric.
With “just” 20M installed base in India plus international Indian “brand ambassadors” frequently traveling to India and extolling Apple Product virtues, no wonder Tim and Luca emphasized “strong double digit (revenue) growth” in India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Mexico/Latin America.
Apple is on the cusp of a huge breakout and growth in these regions.