A scientific wild-assed guess posted here Wednesday by friend-of-the-blog Bartley Yee:
Robert Paul Leitao: Bart, Do you see the last two days of trading as a bear market rally or the start of the market turning higher?”
Bartley Yee: "Ah, the crystal ball, she is somewhat cloudy” SWAG [Scientific wild... etc.], I think there will be some slow choppy movement higher for AAPL and by extension, any indexes which Apple is part of. This will work towards earnings on October 27. There may be dips with any negative economic, Russian War, or further news. I expect a trading range between $137-$157, maybe $160. Selling pressure from RMDs [required minimum distributions], year-end expenses and maybe tax harvesting will keep a lid or ceiling on maximum price gains.
Now when and what Apple reports for Q4 earnings and Q1 guidance will determine the rest of this quarter’s trajectory, at least from Apple’s business side. IMO, as long as Apple and the market feel Apple’s fundamentals are reasonable, there will be support price wise long term. There will be many to paint whatever is said in a negative light so sentiment is fragile until inflationary pressures are reduced to the Fed’s satisfaction. An October event and persistent positive demand would be good news.
But if Apple misses or guides negatively, the market will not be kind, and the indexes concurrently will suffer. No matter what, we will repeat this cycle of thought again in early to mid Q2 2023 as Q1 earnings come into play and the Russian-Ukrainian war drags to a 1 year period. Of course, any major escalation like tactical nuclear weapons use would be a black swan event for financial markets and a huge external monkey wrench. Same with any worsening or deadliness of Covid.
My take: Sounds about right to me.