Stay long on Apple, says analyst Amit Daryanani.
From a note to clients that landed on my desktop Friday:
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW: The iPhone 14 lineup has been available across most geographies for a few weeks now and lead-times have expanded (not a typo) since last week for the Pro & Pro Max models across all the geographies we track (ex. Japan) by ~1-6 days – the strong demand is in stark contrast to recent concerns around demand slowdown. Our assessment remains – that while units will be stable to slightly up, the real story here is ASPs will be up high single digits in H2, enabling upside to not just the Sept-qtr, but likely Dec-qtr....
The iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max are now seeing time to first delivery estimates of 25 days and 32 days for the U.S., while China carries even more extended lead times of 29 and 36 days, respectively. Notably, lead times in China for the lower-end iPhone 14s are now materially higher than other geographies. Amongst the other countries, on a broad level, demand is relatively weaker for the lower-end segment of the iPhone market compared to the Pro models (lead times of ~3-5 days for the iPhone 14, although noticeably better vs. last week). Japan is seeing continued extended lead times for the 128GB Midnight/Starlight versions of the iPhone 14. So far, Japan remains the only country to show consumer preference towards storage size or color in the current cycle.
Worth noting demand in countries like China & India is not only strong but skewing towards the high-end models.
Net/net: Expanded lead times for the Pro models suggest consistently strong (better?) demand for the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max, which would likely have a materially positive impact on both mix and margins.
Maintains Outperform rating and $190 target.
My take: Data points lost in the wind.