Premarket: Apple is green

From MorningStar's "Dow futures rise 200 points as another rough quarter concludes" posted early Friday:

U.S. stock futures on Friday were pointing to a positive end to another difficult quarter, with key inflation data and Fed speeches set to come...

So far, the S&P 500 has slumped 3.8% in the third quarter and lost 24% over the last three quarters.

Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, said markets will stop panicking when central banks start -- but dismissed interventions by both the Bank of Japan and Bank of England as neither credible nor coordinated. He repeated his advice to nibble if the S&P falls to 3,600, bite at 3,300 and gorge at 3,000...

A downgrade of Apple (AAPL) by Bank of America, a report of a hiring freeze at Meta Platforms (META) and a steady stream of hawkish commentary weighed on U.S. stocks on Thursday.

Charts: Yahoo!Finance sees a bearish commodity-channel-index pattern. Max pain drops $5 to $150 with a call mountain at $155 (down $5) and a put peak at $145 (also down $5).


  1. Bart Yee said:
    Numbers As of close Sept 29, 2022 after a broad stock market pullback with AAPL being hammered -4.9%.

    Stock — YTD — 1 YR — Cap
    AAPL -19.8% (down 10% more from 1 mo ago), -0.25%, Cap = $2.29T
    Nasdaq Comp -31.4%, -26.0%
    Nasdaq 100 -31.3%, -22.7%
    Dow 30 -19.6%, -15.0%
    SPDR S&P500 -23.6%, -16.5%
    MSFT -29.4%, -16.4%, Cap = $1.77T, diff. to AAPL -$520M, closer then prev $630M
    GOOGL -32.2%, -27.1%, $1.28T
    NVDA -58.5%, -40.4%, $305B
    AMZN -31.1%, -30.5%, $1.17T
    FB/META-59.4%, -59.8%, $367B
    NFLX -60.2%, -60.0%, $107B
    INTC -48.8%, -50.7%, $137B
    QCOM -37.2%, -11.2%, $129B
    ARKK -60.0%, -65.6%
    BRK-A -9.75%, +2.5%
    Samsung -32.2%, -28.3%, $248B
    Xiaomi HK -52.6%, -58.0%, $27.8B
    HPQ -33.5%, -8.3%, $25.9B
    HPE -23.2%, -14.0%, $15.6B
    DELL -39.1%, -36.0%, $25.1B
    TSLA -23.9%, +3.0%, $840B
    NIKE -42.8%, -34.7%, $149B
    DIS -37.1%, -43.6% $177.7B

    September 30, 2022
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      But the focus is on AAPL. Goes to show how myopic WS is.

      Twenty years ago Apple was still being described as “beleaguered” because It wasn’t selling enough computers, even though the era of computers had passed it prime and mobile music was taking center stage, a product category Apple was beginning to dominate.

      Today the meme is Apple isn’t selling enough iPhones, even though Apple has pricing power (and successfully uses it), and has entered other high margin categories, all of which are industry stalwarts.

      I’ll bet you I have sold a dozen or so Apple Air Tags to people reporting lost/#stolen bikes, pets, cars on My Neighborhood. One woman had her truck stolen twice in 10 days. She bought an Air Tag and was traced to a neighbor boy who had a GM master key.

      October 1, 2022
  2. Mark Visnic said:
    SOX -41.72% (-13.5% in last month), -27.96%
    TSM -46.28%, -37.95%, $350.5 BB

    September 30, 2022
  3. Mark Visnic said:
    TSM is trading at 11x both 2022 and 2023 EPS with a 20%+ long term growth rate. Current share price is discounting no growth in 2023 and is at a 45% discount to its LTG.

    Analysts are lagging indicators but continue to have heavy short term influence and investors see no reason to buy as analysts trip over themselves to slash numbers repeatedly.

    September 30, 2022
  4. Gregg Thurman said:
    Dividend yield is a function of your basis, not what AAPL is trading for today.

    Example: Apple’s quarterly dividend yield when dividend was declared in July was $0.23 (~1.6%). Today that $0.23 yields ~1.7% on you July basis.

    Go further back, say 5 years and today’s quarterly dividend yield is ~6%.

    Think of dividends as money in the bank bearing interest, while also generating principal growth. Now for a lot here they have held onto their AAPL for 20 years or more. Dividend on a basis established back then is somewhere around 25%.

    These figures are all based on quarry payouts, annualized yield is about 4X greater.

    Annual Dividend / basis = annual yield.

    Apple does not reward short term buyers.

    October 1, 2022
  5. Gregg Thurman said:
    Whoops. Misplaced my decimal point. Some other errors in time/yield but you get the idea. The point is your basis doesn’t change unless you buy more at a higher price, to the extent your average price goes up.

    October 1, 2022

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