"Where to begin?" asks friend-of-the-blog Bartley Yee.
From "Apple is a poor risk-reward: BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky" which aired on CNBC Friday:
Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG chief market technician, joins the 'Halftime Report' to give his technical take on Apple and what it means for the greater market.
Where to begin? So if I hear this right, he wouldn’t buy AAPL here because there isn’t enough reward (gain) for the risk of buying in at this price. He still believes there’s a macromarket low to still be tested - I get that. But there’s no reward for the “long term” (6-12 month or more)? So essentially he’s really speaking to those who want to be in and out of the market by trading - essentially trying to time the market - get out when high, buy in when lower, and his technicals will show you this.
Sometimes I wonder if some of this is saying “if you didn’t see the lows like we did earlier this month (year), then it’s pretty much too late to eke out sufficient gain to make a move now, not enough upside near $154. Better to wait for a new low (near $130?) so there’s plenty of upside to make an investment.” Well, what about if/when AAPL pulls back to $144, $138, $134 or below? When does one know where the bottom is? That’s the problem with active trading, thinking you can outwit or time the market, and know when to buy the “lows” and sell the “highs”, not to mention the cash and tax implications if not in tax advantages or retirement funds.
The ironic thing is the slogan “past performance is not indicative or guarantee of future results”, yet this is precisely what these technical guys say all the time - we’ve seen this pattern before so we’ll look for the same patterns in the future to predict what will happen before it happens.
Well, we’ll see what long term holding (1-5 years) looks like at any entry points right here (15% below AAPL ATH). I’ll lay odds that Apple thinks it’s worthwhile (to the tune of $22-24B buybacks this last and current quarter each, and Buffet buying more as well.
The ability to make a trade at these levels and simply sleep well at night, IMO, is much more satisfying and prudent rather than to spend the mental energy and time to monitor, time, and decide when to get in, out, trade, etc. stocks IF you are literally not a pro at it with defined plans of attack (see brother Gregg Thurman). Us mere mortals at investing value companies and stocks like Apple/AAPL for the general market stability they are.
My take: Well, Krinsky is BTIG's chief market technician. Technical analysis -- like it or not -- is his job.