Pew: Experts split on whether the metaverse will be a thing by 2040

From "The Metaverse in 2040: Hype? Hope? Hell? Maybe all three." posted Monday by the Pew Research Center:

In all, 624 technology innovators, developers, business and policy leaders, researchers and activists provided open-ended responses to a question seeking their predictions about the trajectory and impact of the metaverse by 2040. The results of this nonscientific canvassing:

    • 54% of these experts said that they expect by 2040 the metaverse WILL be a much-more-refined and truly fully-immersive, well-functioning aspect of daily life for a half billion or more people globally.
    • 46% said that they expect by 2040 the metaverse WILL NOT be a much-more-refined and truly fully-immersive, well-functioning aspect of daily life for a half billion or more people globally.

My take: 500 million is a market big enough to be of interest to Apple. Whether it will materialize -- and be interesting -- is still a toss of a coin.

10 Comments

  1. Romeo A Esparrago Jr said:
    I’ll be 76 in 2040.
    Speaking of 76 reminds me of 1776.

    Happy 4th of July! 🙂

    6
    July 4, 2022
    • Jerry Doyle said:
      @Romeo A Esparrago: “I’ll be 76 in 2040.”

      No problem Romeo. 76 will come quickly for you. 🙂

      1
      July 4, 2022
  2. David Emery said:
    The one thing I’m sure of is that the Metaverse, whatever it ends up to be, will not be owned by Meta. That’s both because a ‘Metaverse’ by definition allows a much larger set of possibilities and because Meta is likely to be handicapped/crippled by the Zucker over the next 5-10 years. Eventually politicians will catch up to the Surveillance Economy, and that will whack Meta off at the knees.

    6
    July 4, 2022
    • Steven Philips said:
      Luckily a Zucker isn’t born every minute!

      1
      July 5, 2022
  3. Michael Goldfeder said:
    They didn’t have to seek input from 624 individuals regarding anything about the Metaverse.

    Just ask Mark Gurman as he knows everything!

    0
    July 4, 2022
  4. John Konopka said:
    2040 is quite a ways off. Potentially it could be quite good. There is also a lot of opportunity for schlock. Definitely enough time to develop the hardware.

    When new technologies come along there is a always a lot of aspirational greatness assigned to it.

    When transcontinental phone lines were built some people thought this would bring live opera to the hinterland. The internet was supposed to promote democracy and education.

    Generally the early profits are generated by porn.

    A lot of time wasting content like Candy Crush will be generated.

    I’m with Tim Cook on this. I think the more useful content will be AR. VR seems too isolating.

    I could definitely see an AR version of Siri being a big help. If my regular glasses had AR built in, but mostly off, I could summon Siri to show me the current Apple price, the local weather, or find something on Wiki related to a current project. It would be great to have it there when I need it then quickly disappear.

    2
    July 4, 2022
  5. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    @PED Thank you for this Apple 3.0 blog post! The Pew Research Center is one of my “go to” sites for solid research and analysis on current and emerging trends. There’s a lot in this report to read, ponder and to deploy as a springboard for further research and analysis. In my view, Apple will be a pivotal and central player in however the so-called metaverse evolves and takes virtual form as our civilization lurches forward .

    2
    July 4, 2022
  6. Kirk DeBernardi said:
    When this so-called Metaverse comes, it won’t be anything like the Metaverse conundrum of today’s speculation.

    1
    July 5, 2022

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