Gene Munster: Apple lead times have stabilized -- except for MacBook Pro

From a note to Loup Ventures subscribers that landed on my desktop Friday:

From mid-November 2021 to May 19th, we have been tracking lead times at Apple for nine products in six countries. We’ve found that lead times for 8 of the 9 products have been essentially stable over the past month. It’s worth noting that on exception, the MacBook Pro lead time skyrocketed over the past month, increasing from 9 days to 58 days. We estimate the MacBook Pro is about 4% of overall sales.

Cue the bar chart: (click to enlarge)

apple lead times stabilized munster

Lead Time Details

  • Typical lead times for Apple products in the third month of the March quarter are “same day.”
  • Today, Apple is quoting an average of 11 days for the seven products launched last fall and the two new products launched this Spring in six countries (United States, France, Germany, Mexico, Japan, and China). That is a measurable step back from the 7 days we observed at the beginning of April.
  • MacBook Pro is in the tightest supply among the nine products, with lead times averaging 56.7 days. This is a major increase from the 9 days we observed in April. The Mac accounts for about 10% of sales.

My take: MacBook Pro demand or MacBook Pro supply? You can never tell from these reports.

5 Comments

  1. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    @PED In my informal shipment date tracking of Apple products, the issue appears to be with products powered by the M1 Pro, M1 Max and M1 Ultra. Products powered my the M1 chip appear to be in ample supply, including the entry level 13″ MacBook Pro. To answer your question, I think it’s a combination of both supply and demand. Someone in the market for a high-powered MacBook Pro or a Mac Studio is hard pressed to find an adequate alternative and I suspect demand remains quite high.

    5
    May 21, 2022
  2. Fred Stein said:
    @Robert and Joseph. Yup, it has be at least partly demand, especially this late in the cycle.

    This augurs well for the Q3 report. That should assuage some of the macro fear that’s impacting AAPL (not Apple) and nearly everything right now.

    This brings up another question. When will analysts start talking up the Mac franchise? There is almost no precedent for such CAGR for a 40 year old business.

    2
    May 21, 2022
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:
      Fred: The June quarter (FQ3) will be materially impacted by supply chain challenges. In my view, September quarter (FQ4) guidance will be of greater importance to the Street. I believe the June quarter this year ends on Saturday, June 25th. We’ll see how much supply challenges ease over the next four weeks. Yes. The Mac line is now “Old Reliable.” In the recent March quarter it represented about 10.73% of revenue, not including associated accessories and services. I do expect Mac sales constrained by supply challenges to be “sales deferred and not sales denied.” When that is proven it will be good news for the share price.

      1
      May 21, 2022

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