As for dividends, he's looking for $0.23 cash per share quarterly (up $0.01 or 5%).
From Cybart's "My Expectations for Apple’s Capital Management Changes" ($) posted Thursday to Above Avalon subscribers:
Later today, Apple will provide an update on its capital management strategy. We know Apple will increase its share buyback authorization and quarterly cash dividend...
Apple has increased its share buyback authorization each year in order to repurchase approximately $20B worth of shares a quarter. Apple has shown no signs of slowing its buyback pace at current price levels. Apple had $40.5B of buyback authorization remaining prior to 2Q22 and needs at least $80B over the next 12 months to continue buying back shares at the current pace of ~$20B each quarter.
As for the quarterly cash dividend, Apple’s past few increases have been stingy.
Here is Apple's quarterly cash dividend trajectory:
- 2012: $0.095
- 2013: $0.11 (16% growth)
- 2014: $0.1175 (7% growth)
- 2015: $0.13 (11% growth)
- 2016: $0.1425 (10% growth)
- 2017: $0.1575 (11% growth)
- 2018: $0.1825 (16% growth)
- 2019: $0.1925 (5% growth)
- 2020: $0.205 (6% growth)
- 2021: $0.22 (7% growth)
- 2022 (estimated): $0.23 (5% growth)
The overall market has a dividend payout ratio of about 40%. Apple’s dividend payout ratio is just 14% and trending lower... Apple’s board can point to a few reasons for justifying such measly increases... A lower dividend payout ratio is also easier for Apple to sustain.
My take: So glad Cybart stays on top of this stuff.