Best and worst Apple analysts: Q2 2022

The quarter ended in a split decision. Indies took eight of the top 10 spots, but also four of the bottom five.

A tip of the hat to...

  • Veteran independent Apple watcher Daniel ("Deagol") Tello, who missed EPS by one penny, won greens in three categories and came in first any way you look at it.
  • Another veteran, Jeff F., whose Revenue estimate missed by just 0.003% and whose Mac estimate was off by 0.32%.

A wag of the finger at...

  • Newbie independent John Butt who saved the pros from looking even worse than they usually do by drawing four reds and coming in last in both columns.

Below: The full list of analysts, sorted by the top-and-bottom lines, with the pros in blue and the amateurs in green.

Finally, a color-coded spreadsheet that shows — in each category — best, second-best, and third-best estimates (in bright green and light blue) and worst, second-worst and third-worst (in bright red and pink). Corrections appreciated.

18 Comments

  1. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    Congratulations to Daniel on being #1 in both categories and to Kirk and Jeff for finishing 2nd and 3rd, respectively, overall. Honorable mention to Christopher on his #4 finish overall and to Michael for coming in 5th overall and occupying the runner-up slot on revenue and eps!

    4
    April 28, 2022
    • Michael Goldfeder said:
      @Robert: Taking a page from my all time favorite college football coach; Steve Spurrier (The Ol Ball Coach) and adding a twist on one of his many comments, let me just say: “That it’s easier winning a National Championship than an Apple 3.0 Championship.” Just ask Nick Saban.”

      2
      April 28, 2022
      • Robert Stack said:
        Michael: You did pretty well, scoring ‘blues” in THREE categories.
        Nice job!

        0
        April 28, 2022
        • Michael Goldfeder said:
          @Robert: Thank you. I owe it all to the lawn darts. But I am expecting a phone call from Goldman Sachs. Lol!

          3
          April 28, 2022
          • Romeo A Esparrago Jr said:
            Congratz & nice technique, Michael.
            I shot off arrows blindfolded until my neighbors called the cops LOL.

            1
            April 29, 2022
    • Bart Yee said:
      I second those congratulations, these estimates are not easy to do and these five have been consistently in the upper group of indie analysts.

      As for me, after a harrowing 9 days in the ICU and hospital with my daughter, plus back and forth travel, my “analysis” boiled down to the SWAG system, scientific wild ass guess! Being ever optimistic, over estimated by not remembering to include headwinds and last earnings call constraints warnings, left me $5.7B over and correspondingly over on EPS and segments.

      I gotta get more rest.

      2
      April 29, 2022
  2. David Drinkwater said:
    For all his bullishness, I’m shocked that Daniel Ives missed so badly on the low side.

    (I will still value his commentary. I think it’s really very good. )

    0
    April 28, 2022
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:
      David: The pros need to work exclusively from data and it’s among the reasons their estimates are persistently lower than the independents. In other words, they aren’t going to let a hunch or personal speculation into their numbers. That’s OK. It’s not just Dan Ives. It’s also Katy Huberty. I very much value their narrative and the depth of their analysis has far more value, in my view, than their quarterly estimates. I’m amazed at Katy Huberty’s consistently strong and cogent narrative and Dan Ives brings context and insights that few can match.

      3
      April 29, 2022
      • David Emery said:
        “David: The pros need to work exclusively from data and it’s among the reasons their estimates are persistently lower than the independents”

        If your data is -consistently wrong-, you have the wrong data (or more likely, the wrong interpretation.) As a judge once told the guy trying to beat the ticket he got (after he ran a light and plowed into my wife’s car), “I find your testimony not credible,” so that’s how I view ANALysts ‘blaming the data.’ But in a supposedly “data focused industry”, the total lack of accountability for years of being consistently wrong says more about the state of the industry than anything else.

        1
        April 29, 2022
  3. Romeo A Esparrago Jr said:
    I had hoped Mr. John Butts would place first. Wagging my thumbs up, John!

    Cheers to Daniel T & Jeff F !

    1
    April 29, 2022

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