Best and worst Apple analysts: Q1 2022

Apple had a boffo quarter, and once again the indies clobbered the pros.

A tip of the hat to…

  • Veteran Apple watcher Jeff F., who came in second in both revenue and earnings, which put him in first place on the average.
  • “Beltway” Greg Boyd, who nailed EPS to the penny.
  •  Above Avalon’s Neil Cybart, who placed in four out of seven categories, which put him in first overall.

A wag of the finger at…

  • Wedbush’s Daniel Ives, who scored first in the September quarter but came in dead last in the December. Was he too busy appearing on TV to update his AAPL spreadsheet?

In a return to form, the indies swept the top 10 spots. Only Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty, at number 11, came close.

Below: The full list of analysts, sorted by the top-and-bottom lines, with the pros in blue and the amateurs in green.

Finally, a color-coded spreadsheet that shows — in each category — best, second-best, and third-best estimates (in bright green and light blue) and worst, second-worst and third-worst (in bright red and pink). Corrections appreciated.

6 Comments

  1. Romeo A Esparrago Jr said:
    Congratz to the best, which I’m happy to see several are friends of the blog : Bart, Gary, Michael, and more! Cheers!

    6
    January 28, 2022
  2. Jerry Doyle said:
    Second brother Romeo A Esparrago, Jr.’s comment above. Congratulations!

    “…. Was he (Dan Ives) too busy appearing on TV to update his AAPL spreadsheet?” …. Leave brother Dan be. We need a voice on the CNBC business news channel who understands Apple, Inc. and all things Apple. Candidly, he probably was too busy making appearances and didn’t update his spreadsheet.

    5
    January 28, 2022
  3. Chris De Armond said:
    With Mr. Ives placing last in revenue and eps and IF his numbers were current wouldn’t that indicate a possible forecast raise for him in the near future?

    2
    January 28, 2022
    • Jerry Doyle said:
      @Chris De Armond: “…. wouldn’t that indicate a possible forecast raise for him in the near future?”

      A little bird flew outside my kitchen this morning chirping. I swear her chirp was a sonnet chirping something like, “They all gonna raise soon, they all gonna raise soon, ……”.

      1
      January 28, 2022
  4. Bart Yee said:
    I don’t know why we are asked for gross margin and it isn’t included in the tabulated results but a shout out to Troy Thoman who practically nailed the Gross margin with a 43.75% estimate.

    Also second the kudos to
    Jeff F. And Greg Boyd for Rev and EPS being just inside 0.75% and Jeff Galanti and myself a scant 0.50% behind them. And kudos to Neil Cybart for #1 overall with consistently close estimates and Michael Goldfeder taking a close 2nd with an even slimmer lead over third.

    This was another fun smackdown with great FOB participation and estimates. Looking forward to Q2 and even our April 1 contest looks like a lot of people still in play!

    1
    January 29, 2022
    • Michael Goldfeder said:
      @Bart: No doubt after this smackdown based on the level of performance displayed by those astute individuals on the Apple 3.0 Platform, I’m expecting that WS will be knocking on your door with a job offer to displace the more out of touch analysts.

      Do you prefer to replace Rod or Pierre? I’m good with either one being banished to the sidelines as they both are extremely out of touch with Apple and have been for quite some time.

      Good question regarding the margins. I spent substantial time throwing numerous darts to come up with my final number for that specific category.

      1
      January 29, 2022

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