From Melanie Schaffer's "Apple Pulls Back From All-Time High, But May Be Set To Climb Heading Into Earnings, Fed Meeting" posted Tuesday:
After dropping to the $155 level on Monday, Apple bounced up over 4% to close the trading day at $162.30. The wide trading range makes the possibility of sideways trading between Monday’s range the most likely scenario for Tuesday.
Due to the large drop in Apple from its Jan. 4 all-time high of $182.94, the stock is trading in a confirmed downtrend on the daily chart. In order to reverse into an uptrend on the larger timeframes, Apple will need to confirm an uptrend on the four-hour chart. Currently, the largest timeframe that has demonstrated a reversal to the upside is on the hourly chart.
A larger bounce will eventually come because Apple’s relative strength index (RSI) is measuring in at about 31%. When a stock’s RSI reaches the 30% level, it becomes oversold, which can be a buy signal for technical traders. The last time Apple’s RSI measured in near 30% was on March 8, 2021 and the stock rallied almost 15% over the month that followed.
Apple is trading below the eight-day and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), with the eight-day EMA trending below the 21-day, both of which are bearish indicators. The stock is trading above the 200-day simple moving average, however, which indicates long-term sentiment is bullish.
My take: As I write this Apple is trading in the high $150s and its RSI is above 34.
Yeah, I tried something like that too, earlier this morning… no luck. So I tried again at 157.60 and succeeded in picking up a couple hundred more shares 🙂 at 11:30am.
The next few days will tell if this is brilliant thinking, or a fools journey.
My only macro fear is TSMC is very vulnerable if the Chinese invade Taiwan… (TSMC makes all the M1 chips).
Does Apple remain a growth story? Yes
Is the dividend rising annually? Yes
Does the massive share repurchase program remain in place? Yes
Is it likely new products and services will be announced within a year? Yes
Is the global user base growing? Yes
Are the shares attractive at the current price? Yes.
I’m done. My approach is much easier to follow.
I suspect the entire market will go down a lot, at least for a while, if there is an invasion by Russia.