From Munster and Doug Clinton’s “2022 Tech Predictions Deep Dive” posted Friday to Loup Ventures subscribers:
Over the last five years, we’ve made a habit of offering a few predictions for the year ahead. Here’s what we’re anticipating in 2022:
1. Apple and Facebook will duel for the spot as the top-performing FAANG stock in 2022, driven by metaverse’s flight to quality. For the fourth consecutive year we are predicting that AAPL will be the top-performing FAANG stock and will add a twist for 2022. The twist is that, we believe, AAPL and FB will finish one-two among FAANG stocks being that investors increasingly view the two companies as the safest choices to invest in the metaverse. Given that both companies are highly profitable, they will likely play central roles in defining the metaverse. We believe metaverse companies with less earnings will see a headwind in 2022, while the companies building the metaverse will surely benefit from a flight to quality. Loup is an investor in Facebook. It’s a similar dynamic we observed in the EV space in 2021: with valuations of the top three EV companies (Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid) climbing 220% (from last private round earlier in 2021) compared to the Nasdaq which was up about 25%. Conversely, a basket of 10 EV companies with market caps of less than $5B were punished by investors last year, down on average by 45%.
- Apple’s metaverse opportunity. We believe there is a high likelihood that Apple eventually has a family of products addressing the opportunity and we should see a prototype in 2022. AR or MR glasses are a logical Apple contribution to the metaverse, where we will play and work in more immersive digital worlds. Over the next several years the metaverse will largely be experienced in 2D as it is today with Roblox and Zoom. Down the road, I agree with Zuckerberg that hardware will power more 3D presence, pitting Facebook vs. Apple in a race to build affordable and comfortable headsets through which the world can experience the metaverse…
2. Apple will preview an MR headset. While it won’t be ready for sale, we believe WWDC 2022 is the most likely time for Apple to preview its mixed reality headset. Mixed reality is a level of wearable computing that sits between VR and AR. In MR you can “see” the real word through computer vision, projected to a screen that covers the eyes. While revenue won’t start until 2023, Apple’s headset reveal will be a powerful statement that it means business when it comes to metaverse.
Cue the YouTube video:
My take: The headline suggesting a delayed release comes from the video, not the text. Munster is a metabeliever, but he’s learned not to stick his neck out too far.