What Ming-Chi Kuo said overnight about Apple’s AR/VR plans

From MacRumors’ “Kuo: Second-Generation Apple AR Headset to Launch in 2024 With Lighter Design, Redesigned Battery System, and More” posted early Wednesday:

Highlighting Apple’s long-term goals in AR and the “metaverse,” Kuo said today that the development of the second generation of the headset is already underway and destined for launch in 2024. It will feature a lighter design compared to the first headset, as well as a new battery system, according to the analyst.

Apple has begun planning for the second-generation AR/MR headset, and the shipment schedule will likely be in 2H24. Improvements for the second generation include the lighter weight, form factor design, battery system, and processor compared to the first model, which will go to mass production in late 4Q22.

In his note today, Kuo also shared some new details about the first generation of Apple’s AR headset, including that it will weigh around 300 to 400g and that it will be able to “seamlessly switch between AR and VR to provide an innovative headset experience.”

My take: Who’s holding out for Generation 2?

See also: How reliable is Ming-Chi Kuo? 

16 Comments

  1. Tommo_UK said:
    The Curse of Ming again. More dribbling speculation

    If there is a Gen1 in 2022 it will be a niche product designed to test adoption and technologies. My bet is no AR mass market before 2024 as Gen 1 let alone Gen 2 unless apple buys a major games studio to provide a huge case for mass adoption and allows the glasses to be used for gaming as well as in a sports setting to capture skiing/snowboarding/surfing etc including what people would normally do with a GoPro.

    The over-reach to rah rah on vapourware to be released has reached peak-meme.

    5
    December 8, 2021
    • Alan Birnbaum said:
      I thought only Microsoft practiced ‘Vapourware”. There may be a case for infringement by Apple (Via Nikkei / Bloomberg) /s

      0
      December 8, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      It’s a rumor. Pure fantasy that doesn’t even qualify as speculative.

      Not worth responding to, so I won’t.

      1
      December 8, 2021
  2. Fred Stein said:
    How many times has Tim Cook mentioned VR or MR?

    How many times has he mentioned AR?

    Listen to Tim, not Ming.

    7
    December 8, 2021
    • Steven Philips said:
      “Ming the Merciless”!
      Where are Buck AAPL, Dale and Dr. Zarkov?

      1
      December 8, 2021
  3. Brian Loftus said:
    I think it would be fun to hear what folks see as potential apps.
    I see 2 potential “killer apps”. The first is virtual big screens. I work in a mixed Windows/Mac environment and use both on a daily basis. I have moved my Windows machine to 34″ wide screens and they are great. If I was buying a new one, I might even go wider. I can see a large virtual screen that I move my head around to see. The area around the screen would pass through to give it a natural feel.
    2nd Killer app would be live sports and concerts. Presumably, my glasses would be fed a combination of video streams so that I can look at anywhere on the football field, basketball court, etc, and I can focus where I want to during the play. I am not sure where the technology is for this.
    Less likely is use of these glasses at sporting events so that the various TV experience in sports like football with the yellow line, field goal, play clock, etc would be visible to the wearer.
    I suspect there will be virtual travel and virtual tours of cities, museums, etc but unless you are renting someone one on one – I do not see it scaling well.

    2
    December 8, 2021
    • Horace Dediu said:
      Micromobility, obviously.

      3
      December 8, 2021
    • Bart Yee said:
      For a long time, there were 360* view cameras used for large immersive theaters like found at Disneyland providing a circular viewpoint. As one would guess back then, these were very large and heavy camera array platforms shot on film and flown from hot air balloons, helicopters and aircraft, or carried on vehicles.

      Today, it would be trivial to create an almost spherical view (for up and down too) using digital camera arrays and drones. That could then transfer to a 360* or hemispherical view to explore by head movement. For sporting events, single or multiview cameras are “flown” on 3 or 4 point cable systems that can move and traverse the field in real time. AR content providers would have to work with the major TV networks who broadcast (and pay for access to) the feeds that are shot or potentially used.

      I cannot imagine a multitude of independent camera systems, drone, flown, or manual that could interfere with each other over the same playing field though.

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      December 8, 2021
      • Bart Yee said:
        We can consider that helmet or cap cams could be used for football, baseball, hockey, as they are in auto racing.

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        December 8, 2021
  4. Alan Trerise said:
    As a point of reference the iPhone 13 is 240g. At 300 to 400g its not something that can be worn for long periods of time.

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    December 8, 2021
  5. Kemble Widmer said:
    I just don’t see the value proposition in AR or VR glasses, but I said the same about the IPAD and Apple Watch initially.
    My bet’s on Apple; they will create something we didn’t know we need, again.
    I do expect a slow product ramp with widespread adoption only after a few iterations, like the watch.

    1
    December 8, 2021
  6. Does anyone remember Pop Up videos, from the early days of MTV or VH1? Demos of niche products I tried at various trade shows provided a teleprompter experience, possibly for public speakers to use without all the teleprompter gear out front. Voice access to Wiki sources or your own files. Possibly image recognition to tell you about the rebuilt Cathedral of Notre Dame when it geolocates you. Jet engine mechanic gets to see images of exactly how her fan blade repair job should look while she inspects what she just did.
    BTW: I’m cool with $175 & change at the close.

    3
    December 8, 2021
  7. Aaron Belich said:
    AR/VR isn’t just a screen glued to your eyes, it’s also sound and an intuitive controller system.

    I’m thinking glasses sure, AirPods (a given), but the controller is going to be something non-descript, either a thin, second-skin-like glove or some kind of jewelry-possibly rings that will capture motion and sense taps, flicks, scrolling (rubbing), or an updated watch set-both wrists that pulls muscle movements from your wrist and fire-arms akin to existing tech. Look at how ridiculously large and obtuse most VR hand/wand controllers are. Apple will miniaturize it and build a charge case for it, providing ‘all day’ usage.

    The real question is where does the health / personal improvement come into play? Better gait tracking? Improved fall detection? Perspiration / salinity tracking? Part of future research to build better models to develop better systems and models for prosthetics and the differently-abled?
    Tracking attentiveness in future Apple CarOS or simply to change how the systems in the future CarOS are managed and accessed?

    Apple has so many opportunities to play and learn how this technology can be best exploited to make computing ever more personal.

    1
    December 8, 2021
  8. Kathy Corby said:
    Looking forward to the FaceTime of the future– the person you are FaceTiming with is 3D, close up, in your room (or you are in theirs, or both, or neither… maybe you are both in Paris at your favorite cafe….). The concept of geographical distance would be forever altered.

    1
    December 9, 2021

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