From Debby Wu, Takashi Mochizuki and Giles Turner’s “Apple Tells Suppliers IPhone Demand Has Slowed as Holidays Near” posted last Wednesday:
Apple Inc., suffering from a global supply crunch, is now confronting a different problem: slowing demand. The company has told its component suppliers that demand for the iPhone 13 lineup has weakened, people familiar with the matter said, signaling that some consumers have decided against trying to get the hard-to-find item.
My take: I assume someone made money in the interim.
See also:
Her namesake, Shaw Wu once wondered if increasing iPod sales would ruin Apple’s margins (circa 2005) and also called time on the Mac (circa 2006, just as the Mac when Intel Inside), earning him the monicker “Wong Way Wu.”
Nice to see the tradition sticking with the family name.
Lots of money was made by that bogus story when Hyundai stock jumped up quickly only to fall a few days later. However, IIRC, an investigation was launched by Korean securities authorities into that scam story that was released.
year 2020: 692 euro
year 2021: 757 euro
price increase 9,4%
introduction iphone 12:
sept: 822
okt: 784
nov: 789
dec: 794
average: 790 euro
introduction iphone 13:
sept: 904
okt: 842
nov: 828
dec: 829
average iphone 13: 852 euro
average iphone 12 for the same period: 775 euro
interesting is that iphone 12 price almost did not come down.
from 790 to 775
only 15 euro price drop in one year time.
increasing prices and marketshare = pricing power
We need a new index ‘discretionary consumer products price index’. That the price increases for desirable products like even a sit-down burger or cuppa joe or iPhone or fresh cracked crab at WMF or a new car. By that metric iPhone pricing is just keeping pace. That’s great. That allows Apple to keep growing without taking a larger % of the discretionary spend of its customers – that’s us the fortunate ones.
introduction iphone 13:
sept: 904 ($1018 USD)
okt: 842 ($948)
nov: 828 ($932)
dec: 829 ($934)
average iphone 13: 852 euro ($960)
average iphone 12 for the same period: 775 euro ($873)
We cannot assume US UK and China sales and price averages to be a similar mix to Europe or Bas’ numbers. However, his data does validate my sense and other reports that iPhone Pro and Pro Max sales are dominant and have pushed iPhone average sales prices higher, for sure over the $925 level.
Q1 2020 iPhone revenue $65.6B comp
Estimated 82M units sold Q1 2022
ASP of $850 = $69.7B +6.4% YoY
ASP of $875 = $71.7B 9.4%
ASP of $900 = $73.8B 12.5%
ASP of $925 = $75.85B 15.6%
ASP of $950 = $77.9B 18.75%
ASP of $960 = $78.72B 20.0% (I like Bas’ numbers above already!)
Here’s a moonshot estimate:
If we assume 82M units, not including the SE 2020:
iPhone 11-12 11% 9.02M x ASP $600 = $5.41B
iPhone 13 mini 6% 4.92M x ASP $780 = $3.84B
iPhone 13 22% 18.04M x ASP $880 = $15.88B
iPhone 13 Pro 30% 24.6M x ASP $1100 = $27.06B
iPhone 13 Pro Max 31% 25.42M x $1200 = $30.50B
Total Revenue = $82.69B, ASP of $1008, 26.05% growth
So between $75B-78B would be a nice consensus range to work in, $73B on the low end, $82B on the high end depending on ASP mix. Of course, if Apple is able to sell more than 82M units, well, now we’re talking. But some would say the above is plenty, save some demand for Q2.