From a note posted Monday to Loup Ventures subscribers:
Entering Black Friday we observed lead times at Apple for ten products in six countries that suggested the gap between demand and supply is slightly wider than what we would have anticipated given company commentary on the September earnings call. We revisited the lead times on Cyber Monday and found that while there were slight changes, the supply environment remains tight. What’s most important is demand for both Apple’s newest and previous generation products is strong, and to the extent the December quarter is negatively impacted from greater-than-expected supply chain bottlenecks, the March quarter will have a corresponding positive impact…
- Typical lead times for new Apple products going into Cyber Monday are on average about 10 days.
- Apple’s guidance calling for an $8B supply chain headwind in December would imply lead times entering Cyber Monday should be an average of 16 days.
- Today, Apple is quoting an average of 18 days for seven new Apple product SKUs in 6 countries. That is a slight improvement from 20 days we observed last week…
- If that 4-day lead time gap continues for the balance of the quarter, it would increase the supply chain effect in December to about $10B, compared to guidance of $8B. The $2B delta is just under 2% of the Street’s $117B holiday quarter revenue estimate.
My take: Once again, what doesn’t get sold in the December quarter will surely get sold in March.