This week’s Apple trading strategies (11/29-12/3/21)

A place for Apple traders and investors to share their best ideas.

To get things started, here are Citi’s Jim Suva and D.A. Davidson’s Tom Forte talking up Apple Friday morning as the markets headed into into their Omicron swoon:

Below: Apple vs. the S&P 500 last week, normalized…

apple trading strategies 11-29-21
Disclosure: Although I am now an Apple shareholder (see Why I bought a share of Apple, my first), I am in no position to give trading advice. Don’t blame me if you drain your IRA doing something you read about here.

See also last week’s trading strategies.

11 Comments

  1. Tommo_UK said:
    I know many reading this have core AAPL positions and also trade around them using options and other derivatives. It’s to you I’m talking (or anyone using leveraged methods, such as CFDs or spread betting).

    The risk now in anything other than 1:1 investing outweighs the reward in my opinion, until there’s some visibility. That might be next week if Omicron turns into something health officials can clearly describe how it impacts (or doesn’t) the world’s vaccination policy – and if the current vaccines are even effective against it, or it could be next year.

    AAPL is clearly a long term winner but this is no time for cheerleading short term. I don’t expect anyone in CNBC studios (virtually or otherwise) to be looking beyond their own screen, let alone outside of the US, for insight so the BUY MOOOOAAR calls are inevitable, but likely to mislead traders and investors of leveraged products into a false sense of security.

    Lockdowns and Omicron (sounds like a new Avenger’s arch-villain) together with geopolitical issues make this a potential perfect Nightmare Before Christmas.

    Extreme caution is my advice. Turn off CNBC and read the news feeds from outside of the US for what’s likely to impact US sentiment a week or two later when the country notices it isn’t an island and yet again might have to take the impact of COVID more seriously than it is.

    More power to anyone who manages to trade this successfully into new ATHs for December though 🙂

    7
    November 28, 2021
  2. Fred Stein said:
    I appreciate and agree with the cautionary note. Over the last three years, “worry” has been the downward force w.r.t. AAPL. Before that it had been “fear”, at times. Thus the downturns over the last three years have been shorted and shallower, with one exception, the brief downstroke at the start of COVID 19.

    Analysts’ EPS estimates for 2022 and 2023 are far too low. As they revise estimate upwards, the market regains confidence in AAPL.

    Timing remains a mystery to me.

    3
    November 28, 2021
  3. Troy Thoman said:
    I think you can be cautious and bullish. For instance, sell some December 31st puts at a strike of $145 or $150 or so. If it drops you own the stock at a good price, if it rises you keep the premium.

    2
    November 28, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      The favorite strategy of a very wealthy man, and a very good friend.

      1
      November 28, 2021
    • Dave Ryder said:
      Troy, did you mean sell puts, or buy puts?

      0
      November 28, 2021
      • Troy Thoman said:
        Sell puts. It’s a bull strategy. If the stock drops below the strike price, then the shares are “put” to you. I.E you buy the shares for the strike price. If it doesn’t drop, then you keep the premium. Either way you keep the premium.

        1
        November 28, 2021
        • Gregg Thurman said:
          And because of the premium, if the shares are Put to you, your net price (assuming a $145 Strike) is ~$143.10.

          0
          November 28, 2021
  4. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    I plan to judiciously add to my positions on any continued weakness. I’m keeping in mind Apple was a strong performer during the lock downs and the migration to work-from-home and school-from-home. We don’t know yet of any longer-term implications for the economy and our society from the latest variant of concern.

    1
    November 28, 2021
  5. Gregg Thurman said:
    In early Asian (10:27 PM EST SUNDAY) trading the DOW is up $254, the S&P is up $46 and the Nasdaq is up $215.

    I intend to take advantage of these gains, assuming they hold, in an account I manage for a friend (free of charge so as not to violate SEC rules) by selling Calls against DEC 23 $165 Calls purchased @ $2.19 on Friday last.

    I’m expecting AAPL to go up about $2.00 sometime during the day and am eyeballing Strikes that may, or may not, expire worthless on Friday DEC 3. Either way I make money for that friend.

    0
    November 28, 2021
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:
      Yes. Dow Futures are up 252 points at this moment. S&P Futures and Nasdaq futures are also higher. It’s looking like Friday’s sell-off on a half-day of trading may have been an overreaction. But… I’m not sure the markets are out of danger. It was the risk of a new variant on Friday. There are other risks facing the market and it only takes a scare to move prices lower and have traders looking at profit taking and changing their relative risk appetite. I want to see sustained strong earnings growth over the next few months. Any hint of disappointment either on results or guidance is moving share prices south. The liquidity flow is slowing and leverage remains high.

      0
      November 28, 2021
      • Gregg Thurman said:
        There are other risks facing the market

        The point being missed is that every single day of every single year the world is fraught with risks. How the individual deals with those risks is what matters. Experience tells us that when confronted with a new risk the markets recoil in fear, only to bounce back a day or three later when cooler heads prevail (by taking advantage of the panic driven sellers).

        I say bring those risks on, I care naught about the financial well-being of those that can’t handle the heat in the kitchen.

        0
        November 29, 2021

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