From a note to Wedbush clients that landed on my desktop Friday:
Based on our analysis we estimate Apple is now on pace to sell more than 10 million iPhones for Black Friday weekend. We are seeing shortages in many Apple stores with iPhone 13 Pro (Sierra Blue and Gold the most popular), as we estimate right now demand is outstripping supply for overall iPhone 13 units globally by roughly 15% heading into this holiday season. Despite the chip shortage and Rubik's Cube logistics that Apple (and every other technology, auto, and retail vendor) is dealing with we are seeing tremendous demand trends both in the US and China for iPhone 13 which is a positive sign that Apple could exceed selling 80 million iPhone units in the quarter with stronger Pro versions driving higher ASPs.
We estimate that Apple is on pace to sell ~40 million iPhones between this Black Friday weekend and Christmas which would be record holiday pace for the company despite the lingering chip shortage limiting iPhone supply globally by roughly 10 million units based on our analysis. We estimate in China alone there are roughly 15 million iPhone 13 upgrades for the December quarter as this key region remains a major source of strength for Apple heading into 2022 and beyond. We believe Cook & Co. have been able to get more iPhones into the retail channel over the past week which is a step in the right direction with holiday season now kicking into full gear.
Maintains Outperform rating and $185 price target.
My take: Brave note, posted while the markets were in free fall.