Daniel Ives: Apple to sell 40 million iPhones between Black Friday and Christmas

From a note to Wedbush clients that landed on my desktop Friday:

Based on our analysis we estimate Apple is now on pace to sell more than 10 million iPhones for Black Friday weekend. We are seeing shortages in many Apple stores with iPhone 13 Pro (Sierra Blue and Gold the most popular), as we estimate right now demand is outstripping supply for overall iPhone 13 units globally by roughly 15% heading into this holiday season. Despite the chip shortage and Rubik's Cube logistics that Apple (and every other technology, auto, and retail vendor) is dealing with we are seeing tremendous demand trends both in the US and China for iPhone 13 which is a positive sign that Apple could exceed selling 80 million iPhone units in the quarter with stronger Pro versions driving higher ASPs.

We estimate that Apple is on pace to sell ~40 million iPhones between this Black Friday weekend and Christmas which would be record holiday pace for the company despite the lingering chip shortage limiting iPhone supply globally by roughly 10 million units based on our analysis. We estimate in China alone there are roughly 15 million iPhone 13 upgrades for the December quarter as this key region remains a major source of strength for Apple heading into 2022 and beyond. We believe Cook & Co. have been able to get more iPhones into the retail channel over the past week which is a step in the right direction with holiday season now kicking into full gear.

Maintains Outperform rating and $185 price target.

My take: Brave note, posted while the markets were in free fall.

6 Comments

  1. Tommo_UK said:
    Waiting times in the U.K. are next day for the iPhone 13, 4-5 weeks for the Pro, and the Pro Max even longer.

    Orders in terms of numbers are skewed in favour of the Pro Max

    3
    November 26, 2021
  2. Greg Lippert said:
    Was looking for iPads – delivery was In January.

    0
    November 26, 2021
  3. Gregg Thurman said:
    Just came from the Spokane Apple Store where I picked up a Thunderbolt to Thunderbolt cable. Brittany, my daughter told me on the way there that she ordered a MacBook Air on Wednesday with Store pickup today. By the time we arrived at the Store today it was out of stock with no scheduled resupply info.

    Sales Rep (only been with Apple about 6 months says today has been insane. Two armed security guards manning the doors.

    2
    November 26, 2021
  4. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    Delivery dates on iPhone 13 Pro Max orders as of today range from December 13th to December 20th. Some configurations are available for pick-up tomorrow at my local Apple store. Following the expected surge in demand through Lunar New Year (February 1st), I expect Apple to reach supply-demand equilibrium in the latter half of the March quarter. Although Apple reports quarterly, iPhone demand cycles are typically semi-annual in nature. I’m less concerned about December quarter sales than I am in March quarter guidance and ultimately March quarter results to be released in April. I expect really good news.

    1
    November 26, 2021
  5. Jonny T said:
    The markets in “free fall” is just temporary. The new variant maybe more transmissible, but likely much less lethal. We just need to get the fruitcakes to get vaccinated.

    4
    November 27, 2021
    • Jonny, there’s also the situation regarding unvaccinated children and young adults. This is a growing issue in Germany, Michigan and other places. Those now hospitalized for Covid-19 in Germany are unvaccinated and younger than last year. Their mortality rates, once hospitalized, are sky high because they wait too long to present to ER. Children in school and young adults in nightclubs provide an ideal vector for spreading disease. Always have, long before this Pandemic. I don’t see the omicron variant ‘vanishing overnight’ and I do see people all over growing complacent. This may reinforce Work from Anywhere trends in the long run but overwhelm ICUs in the short term. Uncertainty dampens market enthusiasm in all cases. Volatility, as measured by CBOE: VIX, shot up 54% Friday. Up 70% over the past month.

      0
      November 27, 2021

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