Apple: 14 high volume days in the past year

From Jason Bodner’s “Big Money Has Designs on Apple” posted Monday on Yahoo!Finance:

Apple’s stock has climbed decently in 2021, rising +21.0%. But the tech titan could rise quite a bit higher as its new hardware rolls out and plans for a self-repair online store emerge. But another likely reason is Big Money lifting the stock.

So, what’s Big Money? Said simply, that’s when a stock goes up in price alongside chunky volumes. It’s indicative of institutions betting on the shares…

To show you what I mean, have a look at all the big money signals AAPL has made the last year.

The last few weeks have seen Big Money activity, too. Each green bar signals big trading volumes as the stock ramped in price:

apple big money days

Generally speaking, recent green bars could mean more upside is ahead.

My take: Cool chart. Not sure what it signifies about future gains.

22 Comments

  1. David Emery said:
    That’s a chart that needs Edward Tufte… I think I see the argument, but it’s not shown very well by the graphic.

    1
    November 23, 2021
  2. Tommo_UK said:
    Apple’s narrative and performance is fantastic and I’ve been in the stock for 20 years now as an investor, swing trader and day trader. I always worry about rah-rah-ing from analysts and the media as “big money” pours in as “indicative of institutions betting on the shares.”

    “Betting” or more politely “trading” being the operative word.

    How many times have people been sucked into an upwards vortex trading AAPL into Christmas only to be devastated in January and February after Toni or Wu or Ming-Chi come out with “supply chain” comments or “slashed orders signifying petering-out of demand?”

    People who used to participate on the old AFB and Investor Village will remember personal stories of tragedy of those who were caught with their pants down trading options and literally in one poor woman’s case betting the farm and losing on what seemed to her a no-brainer.

    With my trader hat on, I’m just saying to those maybe newer to the stock reading this, be very careful at this juncture – there’s a lot of stretch and forward visibility being built into the current PPS.

    Targets will increasingly be fading into the rear view mirror needing fresher narratives or fundamentals to keep momentum going, so if you’re leveraged or trading options, this is where you make or break your performance.

    “Big money don’t care.” It can afford to “bet,” “gamble,” or “trade” as it wants to. Or even let those plays turn into investments. Investors don’t care, because long term the likely only way is up.

    In between all of that you have the possibility for 30% upside/downside from here over the next 3-6 months depending on the market and the narrative including external influences such as COVID variations, lockdowns and known knowns and unknown knowns (thank you Donald Rumsfeld, for that epic quote that just keeps on giving).

    Merry Christmas, or season’s greetings depending on your affiliation.

    6
    November 23, 2021
    • Mark Visnic said:
      Excellent insights and kind effort for sharing Tommo. I’ve been in AAPL from 2005 and endorse all that you said. Chasing upside has rarely worked with Apple over the years. Steady adds on dips with occasional heavy adds on bigger declines has worked for me.

      Like many — or all. — here I believe that I know the company well enough to know when to add and when to lighten up but, I also know to stay humble with that view.

      I do think owning AAPL is getting easier with BRK’s steady ownership, the capital allocation program reducing shares, the tremendous FCF, the massive installed base, and the business process strategy outlined by Neil Cybart. The upshot is a rerating of AAPL shares to a higher multiple over time. Another advantage is the analyst community provides excellent setups by underestimating the company. eg FY ‘22 eps is light by a big margin.

      To your points the reasons for the setups can be double edged swords. What I mean is the very ( often unbelievable) mistakes by the bernstein and goldman analysts that can tumble the shares also provide tremendous opportunities. Don’t chase. Buy on the impact of their mistakes.

      3
      November 23, 2021
      • Tommo_UK said:
        @Mark Visnic

        “the very ( often unbelievable) mistakes by the bernstein and goldman analysts that can tumble the shares also provide tremendous opportunities. Don’t chase. Buy on the impact of their mistakes.”

        Nice words and perfect for an AAPL trader’s mantra during volatile times.

        Long term investors needn’t bother worrying and can stay in their armchairs reading Apple 3.0 🙂

        0
        November 24, 2021
  3. Fred Stein said:
    The chart seems to say that after a cluster of green, we get a short term down spike. But 1) It’s just short term; 2) correlation doesn’t mean causation.

    More importantly, the market still does not fully value Apple’s long term EPS growth.

    4
    November 23, 2021
    • Tommo_UK said:
      @Fred “More importantly, the market still does not fully value Apple’s long term EPS growth” – when it does, it’ll be time to sell. Hasn’t happened in about 20 years though 😀

      7
      November 23, 2021
  4. Kirk DeBernardi said:
    @ Tommo_UK —

    “Hasn’t happened in about 20 years though ”

    Oh, snap. Beautiful.

    3
    November 23, 2021
  5. Rodney Avilla said:
    If past activity determines the future, then we are due at least 1 more green bar. I’m not gonna hold my breath. But it would be nice.

    0
    November 23, 2021
    • David Drinkwater said:
      “Past performance does not guarantee future results.”

      0
      November 26, 2021
  6. Ken Cheng said:
    Dunno. The big volumes seem to be at the peaks and troughs. If anything, it signals the end of some move, not the beginning.

    2
    November 23, 2021

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