Apple Earnings Smackdown: Final spreadsheet FQ4 2021

Exclusive: The analysts (pros and indies) have placed their bets in advance of today’s September quarter results. The fun starts at 4:30 p.m. Eastern.

First the summary (click to enlarge): [Note: Corrected at 10:52 a.m.]

apple q42021 final spreadsheet

Below: The individual analysts’ estimates—as complete, accurate and up-to-date as I can make them, Wall Street professionals in blue, independents in green. Corrections (and filled-in blanks) appreciated, but the window closes at 12 p.m. Eastern.

apple q42021 final spreadsheet

Tune in after the markets close today for Apple’s official results. I’ll be auditing the 5 p.m. Eastern call, and you can too. Here’s the webcast link. Subscribers are welcome to comment on the action in the Apple 3.0 Slack. (Don’t know about the Apple 3.0 Slack? E-mail ped@ped30.com with Slack in the subject line. Subscribers only, please.)

Come back Friday morning for my regular post-earnings analysis: Five Easy Charts, Best and Worst Apple Analysts and What the Analysts Are Saying.

Subscribers are also welcome to come back Saturday at 1 p.m. Eastern (10 a.m. Pacific) for a Zoom ask-me-anything (and Asymco podcast) with the great Horace Dediu. If you haven’t signed up for Saturday’s Zoom, send email to ped@ped30.com with Dediu II in the subject line. Seating is limited.

24 Comments

  1. Alan Birnbaum said:
    It’s interesting that Tony ‘ Baloney’ S. is highest on the institutional Analysts

    3
    October 28, 2021
  2. A little 151 (1.6%) in the morning as a wake-up call. People trying to get in before an even greater rise?
    $88 for Rev seems close, but all is speculation prior to this afternoon…

    1
    October 28, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      all is speculation prior to this afternoon…

      Ain’t that the truth.

      2
      October 28, 2021
  3. Jerry Doyle said:
    The figures still seem in need of adjustment, PED. For example, the averages for combined professionals/indies relative to iPads & Macs are higher than the two basic numbers of each combined group.

    0
    October 28, 2021
  4. bas flik said:
    to me only eps is important in combination with share reductions.
    i go for 1,60 EPS based on under appreciation of dubbel whammer Iphone business (ASP increase and numbers). we”ll see.

    0
    October 28, 2021
  5. Dan Scropos said:
    Regardless of post-earnings action, as Apple’s FCF continues to grow, earnings will continue to be supercharged by a likely $30B holiday quarterly buyback spending spree. Even *that* will do little to work down the cash pile. Profits should be in the $30B range in the current quarter, which will of course be reported in late January of 2022.

    Apple is rapidly approaching the ability to repurchase $100B per year and do little to nothing to the cash pile. In fact, in a few years, $100B in annual buybacks may *add* to the cash pile. Mercy. I think I’ll stick around.

    2
    October 28, 2021
    • Bart Yee said:
      Hey Dan, what were your final informal revenue and EPS numbers that you liked? I still hope you will formally submit them and any segment estimates to PED for smackdown inclusion in the future.

      0
      October 28, 2021
      • Dan Scropos said:
        Yikes. It doesn’t matter. My estimates were waaaaay off. The numbers are very soft. Looking forward to the commentary behind the numbers. I sure hope the supply constraints were MUCH worse than I thought.

        0
        October 28, 2021
  6. John Konopka said:
    Daniel Ives was really close on revenue. $83.4B. Stock is down ~$7 after hours.

    0
    October 28, 2021
  7. Daniel Epstein said:
    Revenue miss on the average (which is actually pretty stupid to use as a yardstick) is obscuring what is really about 29% year over year growth. Iphone revenue for this quarter is pretty close to a straight compare as last year’s Iphone refresh was all beginning in the 1st Quarter. Not sure the exact date but the quarter ended only a few days after Iphone 13 sales started being counted. Q1 started Sept 25th and goes to Dec 25th apparently. 83 Billion divided by 13 is about 6.3 Billion per week. Seems like a reasonable quarter from a business standpoint. Let’s listen to the phone call.

    0
    October 28, 2021
  8. Bart Yee said:
    Well, that was a big bust!

    Apple’s reported Fiscal Q4 2021: In Billions (B), I don’t have the 3rd digits so Philip’s spreadsheet will have to break ties. (I) = indie

    Total revenue: $83.360B, below consensus.
    Ives $83.58, Kumar $83.92, Martin $81.73, no Indie even close

    EPS: $1.235, just at or below consensus, 16.635B diluted shares.
    Mohan $1.25, Ives $1.21, Kumar $1.20, no Indie closer

    Revenue by segment:
    iPhone: $38.868 below consensus. Martin $38.33, Pandey (I) $39.16, Ives $39.80

    iPad: $8.252 above consensus. Thoman (I), Cybart (I) $8.20, Jeff F. (I) $8.33)

    Mac: $9.178 below consensus (at least from my sources). Martin, Thoman (I) $9.20, Chatterjee $9.44

    Services: $18.277 above consensus. Tello (I) $18.29, Boyd (I) $18.30, Goldfeder (I) $18.21

    Wearables/Home/Accessories: $8.785 below consensus. Jeff F (I) $8.71, Tello (I) $8.94, Huberty $8.57 and Burgess (I) $9.00 tie.

    Gross margin on total revenue: 42.195% above mid guidance. Contant 42.25%, Tello (I) 42.04%, Kumar, Martin, Forte tied 42.00%

    1
    October 28, 2021
    • Troy Thoman said:
      add the $6b in supply constraints and it’s $89.4b in Rev…

      5
      October 28, 2021
  9. Marc Bosch said:
    So, YoY revenue was up 29%, and EPS was up 69%.
    That – and Apple’s overall management – is why I buy and hold AAPL.
    “Analyst’s expectations” of the numbers are “noise”, that is of no importance to me.
    Why people pay attention to them is absolutely crazy.
    That said, some analysts do have some interesting commentary regarding AAPL.

    1
    October 28, 2021

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