Katy Huberty: iPhone 13 Pro lead times set five-year record

From a note to Morgan Stanley clients that landed on my desktop Wednesday:

iPhone lead times continue to trend positively. Through Tuesday, October 19th, lead times for the iPhone 13 Pro and Pro max are 32.5 days (Exhibit 13), the longest of any iPhone model launched in the last 5 years at this point in the cycle (32 days after the pre-order date). Lead times for the iPhone 13 and 13 mini are shorter at 11 and 10 days, respectively, which would rank them 8th and 9th (of 15 models) at this point in the cycle.

As we recently highlighted, there continue to be bottlenecks in the iPhone supply chain, primarily for iPhone 13 Pro and Pro Max camera modules manufactured by Sharp in Vietnam, which makes it harder to deduce the impact of demand vs. supply on iPhone 13 Pro/Pro Max lead times.

However, with lead times to-date for all 4 iPhone 13 models outperforming their respective iPhone 12 and iPhone 11 peers from the last 2 years (Exhibit 14), we believe early demand is at least in-line with internal expectations and tracking to our +4% Y/Y iPhone shipment growth forecast in FY22.

Latest China smartphone installed base data showing iPhone share gains accelerating in China. Through the end of September 2021, Apple had ~23% share of the smartphone installed base in China, up 280bps Y/Y, the strongest month of share gains for Apple since March 2019, and a new China smartphone installed base record (Exhibit 16).

Maintains Overweight rating and $168 price target.

My take: I see that Huberty sees continued camera module bottlenecks in Vietnam. JPMorgan’s Chatterjee yesterday reported that the Vietnamese COVID-19 lockdowns had “passed the worst point” and friend-of-the-blog Thomas Williams, without citing a source, reported that those Vietnamese factories had “gradually resumed production” in September. Ah, the vagaries of supply chain checks.

Cue Exhibits 13, 14 and 16:

apple huberty iphone 13 lead times

apple huberty iphone 13 lead times

apple huberty iphone 13 lead times

5 Comments

  1. Fred Stein said:
    Now we see why Tencent, Sony, and Microsoft backed Epic.

    iPhones continue to grow the IB market share with the best mobile gaming platform. And they all know next year starts another 2 year cycle of upgrades, and share gains, with 3nm process and Apple’s 5G.

    1
    October 20, 2021
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:
      Fred: I’ve read some speculation chips on the 3nm process may not be ready in volume until early 2023. What are you seeing? I do know TSMC will be starting the ramp in 2H 2022.

      0
      October 20, 2021
  2. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    4% y/y unit sales growth in FY2022 would be a bullish outcome for Apple and would provide excellent market staging for the release of the iPhone 14 series handsets.

    0
    October 20, 2021
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:
      @bas: Thank you. I’m also reading speculation the iPhone 14 series handsets may use 4nm chips due to production constraints on the 3nm process. In many respects it’s an immaterial issue. The handsets will be amazing and Apple will optimize iOS for whatever chips are deployed.

      0
      October 20, 2021

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