apple analysts unleashed cnbc
10 months ago
Published October 19, 2021 by

Apple analysts Unleashed on CNBC (videos)

27 Comments

  1. Fred Stein said:
    Daniel Ives, nailed it with “game changer”.

    I finally get the pun, ‘unleashed’, meaning true workstations that no longer tethered to the desktop.

    Next year, we’ll see Apple silicon on 3nm, likely including 5G on 3nm. That will be another game changer.

    2
    October 19, 2021
    • Roger Schutte said:
      And Dan ended with Apple being a 3 trillion dollar company in 6-9 months. 33% move looks like a lot and many things need to go well between now and then – I’ll be happy with 15% and thrilled with 33%,

      3
      October 19, 2021
  2. Thomas Williams said:
    Informed selection, Philip. Thank you!
    Love how the focus sometimes turns to Intel’s future in these and other analyst’s eyes. Apple is now a recognized SoC powerhouse and pulling away fast. Intel’s CEO could only promise to catch up soon.
    Gene Munster was spot on with 24% Mac growth this year and ~10% Mac growth in 2022, how Apple innovations eventually trickle down to all products (even the competition) & AirPods as an emerging healthcare device (adding ~6% to the bottom line). Patents and new FDA guidelines support his thesis.

    2
    October 19, 2021
    • David Emery said:
      Intel and Samsung are both “out of the systems game.” Apple has a multi-year lead in hardware/software/systems co-design. Microsoft and Google are following that lead, but in the process Google in particular will end up making changes to Android that leverage Google’s emerging hardware.

      Samsung and Intel, since they own disjoint sides of the game, will be unable to make the same kinds of system-level trade-offs. Will Samsung fork Android into SamOS to allow it to do systems, the same way as Apple, Microsoft and Google? I suspect so, otherwise Samsung’s high end devices will end up always behind Google’s own.

      As “software continues to eat the world”, Intel will have to compete solely on commodity production prices, and that means competing with commodity producers in cheaper parts of the world.

      2
      October 19, 2021
      • Gregg Thurman said:
        Will Samsung fork Android into SamOS to allow it to do systems, the same way as Apple, Microsoft and Google?

        I don’t see it. None of the above have demonstrated any real innovation chops in either software or silicon, certainly not in highly optimized software and hardware.

        Apple’s technological lead can’t be overstated, just under appreciated. Consider that Apple entered the silicon design business in 2008 with the purchase of PA Semi, almost 14 years ago, it isn’t going to take Samsung that long to get to where Apple is today, but skating to where the puck will be in 5 or 10 years is a whole different discussion.

        4
        October 19, 2021
  3. Greg Lippert said:
    If I was a gambler (I’m not), I’d short INTC. Apple is making them look antiquated. I bet other companies may try to follow and roll their own SoC. And don’t forget AMD on the PC side.

    0
    October 19, 2021
    • David Emery said:
      AMD has big problems with the latest version of Windows, which is “pessimized” for their CPUs. Not quite sure how this happens, but the latest Windows runs much better on Intel than AMD right now. (And Hanlon’s Razor argues against a WinTel conspiracy…)

      0
      October 19, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      In another two years I think the timing will be ripe for shorting INTC. I’ll be watching PC sales, that I’m expecting will show weakening volume (attributed to the rise of Mac sales). Intel’s move to a new ARM architecture is going to hampered great by MSFT and especially developers (especially enterprise in-house). None have the standardized developer tools or support infrastructure that Apple offers its ARM developers.

      1
      October 19, 2021
  4. John Konopka said:
    I noted the questioners asking if “regular people” need this sort of power for current applications. I suspect that this is another case of Apple innovating in plain sight. First they put out a generation of products with great performance specs, then they’ll put out a generation of software that makes use of that power.

    Maybe AR? Maybe a whole new desktop paradigm that needs powerful GPUs that don’t kill your battery?

    2
    October 19, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      Upvoted. Apple builds the roads, before it offers the cars that will use them.

      0
      October 19, 2021
  5. Daniel Epstein said:
    I don’t know if anyone watched Shepard Smith on his CNBC News show last night. He was joking with a correspondent (whose name I don’t remember sorry) about the new design being a throwback to 2015 design and Twitter crowd was crucifying Apple for that. Also complained about the price… a lot. Saying you can get a laptop for about 1/4 the price of the new Apple products. He didn’t mention anything about the new chip, power improvements etc. It was classic negative bias. Computers are commodities so the cheapest lowest common denominator version is the only bargain out there. And then he wonders why Apple will sell a lot of these. Of course he probably always buys the cheapest clothes he can find etc. Not!

    1
    October 19, 2021
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:
      Daniel: Non-Apple PCs are reverting to the pre-pandemic trend of falling unit sales. Consumers no longer desire cheap PCs. Performance is slow and much of the functionality has been subsumed by smartphones and iPads. Despite the low prices, they are a waste of money. Anyone who compares Apple MacBook Pros to cheap PC laptops on price has little or no understanding of PC industry dynamics and lacks understanding of how consumers use digital devices today.

      4
      October 19, 2021
      • Gregg Thurman said:
        When you throw in that you can now run iOS apps on Macs you have a no brainer.

        MSFT’s Surface just took a massive body blow.

        1
        October 19, 2021
  6. John Butt said:
    A lot of comment was focused on the power for video production, but I see the power from a different view. I crunch numbers.
    Apple recently released an update for their “Office” products that includes Pivot tables, for Mac users, only Microsoft or Libre Office offers them, else you need to move to more complex software, which takes longer to set up. Pivot tables on Numbers is very fast, especially calculating medians. I have experienced Pivot tables on the M1 chip with the Air, the new chip will extend that feature
    My thought is that the new chip could be used to offer new off the shelf software to do AI on data bases, finding trends and previously unknown relationships at lightening speed.

    1
    October 19, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      Oooooo, I’m going to have to get familiar with Numbers. Tried to use it years ago, but went back to Excel.

      1
      October 19, 2021
  7. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    Thanks, PED! This blog post is one-stop shopping for a researcher like me! Positive comments on the products and good banter on the financial impact for Apple from yesterday’s announcements. The products are winners. The Street will (eventually) pick-up on the success.

    2
    October 19, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      The Street will (eventually) pick-up on the success. .

      Yeah, Sure it will, three years after the parade has passed by.

      0
      October 19, 2021
      • Robert Paul Leitao said:
        Gregg: As long as free cash flow (FCF) keeps rising, Apple continues to buyback shares and the dividend continues to rise at a 5% to 8% per annum rate, I can be patient for a while. However, I do expect AAPL to outperform relative to the broad market in 2022.

        1
        October 19, 2021
        • Gregg Thurman said:
          I do expect AAPL to outperform relative to the broad market in 2022.

          As do I, but that doesn’t mean that WS will. Look at WS’s responses to the last three BLOWOUT/record setting quarters for evidence of its myopia.

          0
          October 19, 2021
          • Robert Paul Leitao said:
            Gregg: Apple already sports a $2.46 trillion market cap. In my view, the Street wants be spoon fed Apple’s own analysis. Outside of a handful of analysts (mostly those regularly featured on the Apple 3.0 blog), sell-side analysts will not deliver highly positive forecasts based solely on their own in-depth analysis. In my view, most are desiring more detailed guidance from management to be used as benchmarks for their own work.

            1
            October 20, 2021
  8. Michael Goldfeder said:
    A great amalgamation of all of these talking heads in one place. I too join in Robert’s accolades Philip, for bringing all of these clips under one big tent. That’s why Apple 3.0 is the Very Best!

    2
    October 19, 2021
  9. Alan Trerise said:
    My impression of the event is they are targeting the emerging creator economy.

    From an investor standpoint, they raised the ASP and lowered the BOM cost. Margin expansion. They are charging a performance premium and saving a bundle by integrating previously purchased silicon into their own single chip.

    0
    October 19, 2021
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:
      Alan: Broadly speaking, the Street considers Apple’s economic moat to be narrow. Apple’s huge capex commitments, long-term supplier relationships and pricing power in the market suggests the company’s moat is wide. This misclassification puts a lid on current price targets and growth forecasts. It will change in time.

      1
      October 20, 2021
  10. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    I like Wamsi Mohan’s work. I just wish he wasn’t so stubborn on the $160 price target. I respect his view (and his work) but it’s a different view from mine.

    0
    October 20, 2021

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