"And most importantly better than consensus investor expectations for tepid demand." -- Analyst Samik Chatterjee
From a note to clients that landed on my desktop today:
Even as supply chain constraints continue to be top of mind for the recently launched iPhone 13 series, the demand indicators continue to be robust and healthy as evidenced in lead times for all iPhone 13 models remaining largely stables in Week 3 over Week 2, except for a moderation in relation to iPhone 13 mini. While the elevated lead times on iPhone 13 over iPhone 12 are likely largely driven by the supply constraints, the demand indicators still appear robust, and most importantly better than consensus investor expectations for tepid demand relative to upgraders and switchers heading into the launch...
iPhone Tracker: Lead times remained stable across all models except mini in Week 3. Delivery timing for the 13, 13 Pro, and 13 Pro Max remained stable on an average basis across all the regions we track at 21, 36, and 36 days in Week 3, respectively. However, the delivery timing for the 13 mini moderated to 16 days in Week 3 from 19 days in Week 2. Compared to iPhone 12 Series, lead times continue to be well ahead relative to Week 3 across all the respective models — although likely to be largely driven by supply constraints.
Maintains Overweight rating and $180 price target.
My take: The fact that this year's iPhone is well ahead of last year's -- despite industry-wide supply chain constraints -- suggests that Apple has routed itself around those constraints.