Pre-order lead times are up 20% from last year -- longer than they've been since the iPhone X in 2017.
From a note to Morgan Stanley clients that landed on my desktop Monday:
As of Friday, September 17th (the first date of pre-orders for the iPhone 13 family), lead times were 27.5 days for the iPhone 13 Pro and Pro Max, 3.1 days for the iPhone 13 mini, and 0 days for the iPhone 13...
This means that iPhone 13 Pro and Pro Max lead times are the 2nd longest amongst all iPhone models launched over the past 5 years as of the first pre-order date, surpassed only by the iPhone X in 2017 (14). For comparison, iPhone 12 lead times at the first date of pre-order last year were 0-11 days.
And given that our supply chain checks indicate minimal near-term component headwinds... we believe these long lead times are at least partly a function of strong early demand.
iPhone 13 pre-order data in China from JD.com supports this view, as the South China Morning Post reports Chinese consumers placed more than 2M pre-orders for the iPhone 13 family on Thursday, September 16th, ahead of the 1.5M pre-orders for the iPhone 12 last year due to less competition from Huawei and increased affordability...
While it's still very early days, the combination of long early iPhone 13 lead times and 2H CY21 iPhone builds that are up 20% Y/Y (with new model builds of 87M units, the strongest since 2H CY17) show the iPhone 13 is off to a promising start.
Maintains Overweight rating and $168 target.
My take: The Apple Card's stumble at the starting line couldn't have slowed things down much.