This week’s Apple trading strategies (9/13-9/17)

A place for Apple traders and investors to share their best ideas.

To get things rolling, here’s Gene Munster’s high-level take on Friday’s Epic ruling. Bottom line: He’s betting that most people will keep doing what they’ve been doing. (Love the tick-by-tick fever chart!)

Below: Apple vs. the S&P 500 last week, normalized…

apple trading strategies 9-13-21
Disclosure: Although I am now an Apple shareholder (see Why I bought a share of Apple, my first), I am in no position to give trading advice. Don’t blame me if you drain your IRA doing something you read about here.

See also last week’s trading strategies.

8 Comments

  1. Greg Lippert said:
    Agree. People are lazy and if no meaningful savings, why would they go to the extra trouble and put in personal info and payment credentials with a third party.

    Managing subscriptions via your iCloud account is so simple. If you want to cancel somethings its just a few clicks.

    I dont see this as a major loss for Apple, I see it as a major win for the App Store long-term.

    3
    September 12, 2021
  2. Gregg Thurman said:
    You don’t really mean you disagree with Martin Peers do you? : )

    Friday was a helluva day. Another knee jerk reaction by those that shouldn’t be allowed outside unsupervised. It cost me, but not near as much as it could have, had I not taken advantage of the selloff.

    I also started this weeks trade strategy on Friday, buying SEPT 17 $149/$150 Call Spreads at 54c. I didn’t buy in the money, as I usually do, because I felt when the Court’s decision was fully absorbed by clearer thinkers AAPL would rebound. And then there’s the probability that we won’t have the usual post event selloff due to Friday’s action.

    ROI, should AAPL Close above $150 this Friday, will be about 85%, wiping out last week’s losses.

    2
    September 12, 2021
  3. Fred Stein said:
    I love Gene’s outlook. People stay with Apple, not because they are “lazy”, but because they are smart.

    I just discovered, and canceled, a useless subscription that I never knew about. Apple always notifies when subscriptions are paid.That feature alone makes Apple a better choice. The scammers rely on people being lazy.

    And we’ve all heard about massive ID theft on other platforms.

    4
    September 12, 2021
  4. Fred Stein said:
    The top grossing Apps will find work-arounds. This will take some revenue from the App Store. That will NOT force Apple to lower the 30% fee.

    Math: To keep the top grossing Apps using App Store payment, Apple would have to lower the fee to less than 30%. Even there, they would lose some revenue to folks like Epic. One good get fancy and model all points from 3% (Barry Diller’s point) to 25% and find that holding the fee %, pencils out.

    Brand: Apple sells safety and trust. Consumers and brand names will pay for this.

    Fairness: 30% is fair and competitive.

    0
    September 12, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      Fairness: 30% is fair and competitive.

      The legal profession takes 30% (plus expenses) in contingency cases, and 40% if a suit goes to trial. Mark up in retail can be higher than that. Taking 30% inclusive of distribution and sales cost is not onerous.

      Complaints about Apple’s fees has everything to do with the 60%-70% profit Apple makes from that service, and the developer’s desire to get a piece of that.

      2
      September 12, 2021
      • David Emery said:
        It would be interesting, in the face of Judge Gonzales Rogers complaints about Apple’s “unjustified” 30%, to hear how she would explain a 30% or 40% contingency fee for ambulance chasing class action law firms…

        1
        September 12, 2021
  5. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    First and foremost, I’m an Apple customer who prefers the company’s privacy and security features. I also prefer the 3% cash back on all of my Apple-related purchases through the use of my Goldman Sachs Apple Card. Almost all of my app purchases and subscriptions are small dollar transactions. What compelling benefits are developers going to provide for me to purchase anything outside of Apple’s payment systems? Please remember developers that opt for 3rd-party payment systems will also be burdened with the costs of transaction fees and associated expenses. What level of “savings” is worth the loss of privacy and security? Yes. This is a potential headwind for Apple’s services revenue growth. But not anywhere near the level of risk today’s headlines suggest.

    1
    September 12, 2021

Leave a Reply