Neil Cybart’s $80.37 billion revenue number tops anything I’ve seen outside Estimize.
From “My Q321 Apple Financial Estimates” ($) posted Monday to Above Avalon subscribers.
My revenue ($80.4B) and EPS ($1.19) estimates are notably above consensus. This implies my expectation is for Apple to report a comfortable “beat” to consensus on Wednesday.
Last quarter, Apple completely blew consensus numbers out of the water. While Apple did not provide revenue guidance for 3Q21, management did provide the following financial clues:
3Q21 revenue will grow strong double digits year-over-year.
- The sequential revenue decline from 2Q21 to 3Q21 will be greater than in prior years due to 2Q21 being strong for iPhone and a supply constraint headwind of $3B to $4B in 3Q21.
- Gross margin will be between 41.5% and 42.5%.
- OpEx will be between $11.1 billion and $11.3 billion.
- OI&E will be around $50 million.
- Tax rate will be around 14.5%.
My estimates are a bit stronger than what was implied by the preceding clues, but not by much.
Below: Cybart’s estimates to two digits…
Total revenue: $80.37 Billion
Revenue by segment:
Wearables / Home / Accessories: $7.49B
Gross margin on total revenue: 42.66%
UPDATE: Friend of the blog Bartley Yee came in this morning with a last-minute revenue estimate of $82.21 billion, topping Cybart by nearly $2.billion. Yee has had his share of accurate estimates. Too late (and I’m too lazy) to recast the headline.