On the road to $200 a share (but don’t hold your breath).
From a note to Loup Ventures subscribers that landed on my desktop Saturday:
Apple will report June quarter results on Tuesday, July 27th. We expect fractional upside to June consensus revenue growth estimates of 23% y/y and EPS of $1.01. The numbers will continue to have noise given that comps are the most difficult they’ve been since Sep-18, along with component shortages that likely had a $3-4B negative impact on the Mac and iPad sales. If not for the component shortages, revenue growth would likely be closer to 30% y/y. We expect the results will continue to instill confidence that the company will grow revenue around 30% in FY21, compared to 6% in FY20. The accelerating digital transformation will continue to be a tailwind for Apple’s revenue growth for the next several years…
Putting it together, we believe shares of AAPL will approach $200 (35% upside from current levels) over the next couple of years, based on 35x our 2022 EPS estimate of $5.70.
Fiscal Q3 2021:
Total revenue: $74.8B
Revenue by segment:
Gross margin on total revenue: 40.0%
My take: Munster is a venture capitalist now, not an analyst, but I don’t hold that against him.