Apple: 24 minutes of Wedbush’s Dan Ives (video)

Walking up to next Tuesday’s Q3 earnings, Ives is — if possible — more bullish than ever.

From Daniel Martins’ “A chat with Wedbush’s Dan Ives” posted early Friday:

If I look to all the checks from supply chain, it’s been anywhere between solid to something that was almost a step up in terms of units coming from the iPhone 13… This quarter, we’re going to be looking at a few billion dollar beat in iPhone and I think services also beats…

Don’t lump Apple in with a pull-forward, work-from-home story. Without the retail piece, I think [the pandemic] actually net-hurt them. This is actually why, when you look at iPhone 13 coming out of the gates in Asia, it’s actually up vs. the iPhone 12 pre-COVID…

Now, looking at the Apple Car, it has been one step forward, two steps back. It’s coming, I believe 2024 or 2025. But I believe they lay the groundwork over the next 3, 6 or 9 months to get there.

Cue the video:

My take: The hardest working analyst on Wall Street.

9 Comments

  1. Fred Stein said:
    Glad to see them highlight the Mac and M1 story. But there’s more to add.

    The M1 doesn’t just give Apple better margins, it give users a better product, which is why the Mac is taking share. This will continue strongly when folks return to the office, where PC and Mac upgrades have languished since the shutdown. Add to that effect, younger workers will demand Macs.

    We can now re-rate, i.e. expand, the multiple for both Mac and iPad franchises,

    8
    July 23, 2021
  2. Charles A. said:
    Ives’ sum-of-the-parts AAPL valuation (@ ~16:00): $600!

    0
    July 23, 2021
    • Bob Goldstein said:
      I heard him say $600. Did he give a time frame for that? To be honest, $600 seems crazy but given enough years anything is possible

      0
      July 23, 2021
      • Charles A. said:
        Appeared to be saying a SOTP valuation — today — would be $600.

        1
        July 24, 2021
  3. Jerry Doyle said:
    It is a pleasure to view Dan’s passion for Apple along with his innate talents of capturing the tireless spirit of Apple investors who identify acutely with Dan’s great perspective on Apple & all things Apple.

    Dan Ives is authentic, fast with his discerning interpretations of an Apple blueprint for forward thinking Apple investors. As I stated previously, Dan has catapulted himself as the top Apple talented analyst with his unique ability to check-his-ego at the door & to sit down & converse in the most authentic, lucid & learned way with Apple retail investors.

    Apple IS a $600 stock. We knew it all along. We just needed Dan to convince us explicitly; and he did!

    Dan was the first analyst to denote 5G as an “elongated” cycle when all other analysts were chirping 5G as a one-time blow-your-wad event. It is only 8:00 pm at the bar. The night is young. The ladies get prettier toward closing time. This means more upgrades extended into 2023.

    It will take several years for the 5G infrastructure to roll-out & Apple’s IB of non 5G consumers will upgrade throughout that roll-out period. By the time the infrastructure is in place many in the first wave of 5G purchasers will be returning to upgrade again.

    Dan is correct to tell us “…. don’t lump Apple in with all others as a pull-forward work-from-home story.”

    Apple is valued on the basis of the sum of its parts. How many WS analyst discuss enthusiastically Apple’s Services business? Dan grasps this integral side of Apple’s business in ways no other WS analyst does. Dan Ives: “…. What many missed & under-appreciated was (Apple’s) Services business, “… that value.”

    Dan understands poignantly the significance of the M1 chip. He sees the M1 chip as one of the greatest innovation & stories in Cupertino; “….one of Apple’s greatest success.”

    Continue….

    3
    July 23, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      It will take several years for the 5G infrastructure to roll-out & Apple’s IB of non 5G consumers will upgrade throughout that roll-out period.

      Apple has a distinct advantage over all other laptop manufacturers: it has a license from Qualcomm to manufacture its own 5G chipset. You want true mobility with your laptop? Get one equipped with 5G cellular connectivity. You want the fastest laptop with best battery life AND 5G connectivity you only have one choice.

      2
      July 24, 2021
  4. Jerry Doyle said:
    Continued….

    A straight PE does not capture Apple’s value. Don’t dwell on Apple’s PE says Dan. Examine the “sum of it parts.” Services! “…. What is the multiple we place on Apple’s Services business?” Dan sees Services worth anywhere from 1.3 to 1.5T.

    Now, place your multiple value on Apple’s other business components: Hardware, the ecosystem and you get a multiple value of 1.5 to 2T. This is the appropriate methodology for valuing Apple: by the “sum-of-its-parts.”

    Who else is talking this way?

    And, Dan is correct when denoting this formula for us to use. This is the path to a $600 stock price. And this PT does’t include the Apple Car, which Dan says is not a matter of if, but when?

    Apple will come forth with its car in 2024-25 because it will not miss out on the 5T dollar green government tidal wave. Dan sees the Apple car, AR and other innovations as “added” valuations beyond the $600 stock price. Don’t you just love this analogy?

    Anti-trust/Epic battle is Apple’s greatest risk, probably about a $20 overhang on the stock price says Dan. Here I disagree with brother Dan. I believe confidently that Apple will navigate these anti-trust risks successfully. In fact, I believe the Biden administration will have little success across-the-board in attacking big tech. Where’s the public outcry against big tech? There isn’t any. As a consumer, I already have notified my representatives of my personal sentiment.

    With Tim Cook at the helm I also see little risk relative to China in its continued battle with Washington, DC.

    Dan shared his wisdom of Apple generously. I appreciate how he helps me gain perspective about what really matters relative to investing in Apple.

    4
    July 23, 2021

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