Technical trader sees Apple breaking to $159. Or $172.

From Bruce Kamish’s “A Triangle Formation on Apple Is Approaching an Upside Breakout” posted Tuesday by The Street.

In this daily Japanese candlestick chart of AAPL, below, we can see some positive clues. Prices have been in a sideways consolidation pattern since February. Higher lows can be seen in March and May while lower highs are visible in February and April. Right now we could be witnessing an upside breakout over the April highs.

AAPL is trading above the flat 50-day moving average line and the flat 200-day moving average line.

The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line has been soft since February so we are waiting and watching for renewed strength. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has just crossed above the zero line for a new outright buy signal.

apple technical analysis 159

In this daily Point and Figure chart of AAPL, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $159 area. A trade at $138.00 should refresh the uptrend.

apple technical analysis 159

In this weekly Point and Figure chart of AAPL, below, we can see a price target of $172.

apple technical analysis 159

My take: Technical analysis works until it doesn’t.

There’s a backgrounder on point and finger charts here.

15 Comments

  1. Mark Visnic said:
    Ladies and Gentlemen, fwiw, we have a confirmed breakout. 136.42 x 136.45 in AH.

    1
    June 29, 2021
  2. Mark Visnic said:
    Philip, It’s Bruce Kamich.

    1
    June 29, 2021
  3. Steven Philips said:
    If given the choice of $159 OR $172, I’ll take $172 please! 🙂

    3
    June 29, 2021
  4. Fred Stein said:
    The media will pick up this story. That will be enough to move the stock.

    Plus Apple’s fundamentals support a higher price.

    3
    June 29, 2021
  5. Fred Stein said:
    I’m declaring it here, now. The “Apple silicon super cycle.”

    Along with TSMC, Apple now has the best phone/wearable/tablet chips marginalizing all other OSes in those categories. Adding their 5G to the SoCs, starts a second 5G upgrade cycle within the 5G cycle.

    With its m-series chips Apple takes significant share in laptops/desktops/servers for years, while upgrading the base. High-end software gets pulled in by gravitational force.

    AirTags may start a much bigger line of business. Maybe HomeKit will turn into something big.

    2
    June 29, 2021
    • John Konopka said:
      Makes me think of all those times in the last several years when Tim Cook proclaimed that he saw great things in Apple’s future though he couldn’t talk about details.

      2
      June 29, 2021
  6. David Emery said:
    “Technical Analysis” is an attempt to quantify human emotion.

    5
    June 29, 2021
  7. Jonny T said:
    Where is Jason Schwarz and his Apple slingshot theory these days? Besides, no rocket science needed to see AAPL will at some point catapult higher after 8 months flat.

    1
    June 29, 2021
  8. John Blackburn said:
    Technical analysis makes life’s travails a little more bearable.

    0
    June 29, 2021
  9. Jerry Doyle said:
    I’m not one to embrace technical stock charts for stock prognostication. I know traders & investors who use them. I’m old-fashion in examining company performance numbers, quarterly reports, new products, consumer acceptance, economic outlook, geo-political events, etc. Data from these sources speak to me & I believe they speak to technical charts.

    The triangle formation on Apple approaching an upside breakout is corroborating what most of us have been waiting to happen. Apple should have been at $150 late April following Q2 earnings call. We long have discussed Q3 performance numbers would come in strong. My concern is if Tim C & Luca M gives an upbeat guidance going forward. If they do, we march right to $150 and the strong guidance guides us higher into the fall.

    My take: Technical analysis (when it works) is no more than looking in the rear view mirror. The same here on the Apple “Triangle Formation” forecast. Already knew this projection. No matter, it is a warm fuzzy that corroborates what I already knew.

    1
    June 29, 2021
    • Michael Goldfeder said:
      I’ll be curious as to how Apple stock reacts tomorrow as their investment in Didi Chuxing, the ride hailing service in China, goes public tomorrow morning on I believe the NYSE.

      Apple invested a billion dollars with them back in 2016.

      2
      June 29, 2021
  10. Gregg Thurman said:
    My take: Technical analysis works until it doesn’t.

    Your “take” is spot on.

    Nothing in TA analysis forecasted the markets response since January earnings. Anyone that claims it did is trying to rewrite history.

    The value of anything is contradicting perceptions between buyers and sellers. Since January, Sellers have been suspect that FQ1/2021 was an aberration with FQ2/2021 more of the same. But now even the doubting Thomas’s are beginning to believe Apple’s outstanding results are sustainable, hence their re-entry into the equity (fears of inflation be damned).
    The breakout is already underway, with confirmation come FQ3/2021 results and positive narrative about FQ4/2021, the “breakout” will accelerate. TA will only accurately tell us what has happened, being equally wrong about the future.

    I can’t help but note that the breakout began on June 3rd, when AAPL began printing almost consistently higher lows for just shy of 4 weeks, while the delta between higher lows and intraday highs narrowed (lower volatility). During that period of time my algo predicting the following day’s intraday low averaged an error rate of less than 45c. Yesterday was an exception to that personal metric with AAPL’s intraday low exceeding my algo’s prediction by more than a dollar. A move like that is a personal breakout signal. I think the stage is set for AAPL to trade through what historically is a July 4 trough.

    As I stated previously, July 12 should be a golden entry point for both short and long term investors.

    But then, I’m always right, until I’m wrong. : )

    0
    June 29, 2021
  11. Gregg Thurman said:
    Oh, my M-1 iPad Pro is phenomenal. M-1 Macs are going to be a significant driver of future revenue and earnings (no Intel tax). I single out the Mac because the days of Apple being a one (or two) trick pony are over. Buy one Apple product and in the following year you’re going to buy 1 or 2 more.

    1
    June 29, 2021
  12. Kirk DeBernardi said:
    I have a friend who was once a broker for Merrill Lynch. Almost only believes in technical analysis. “The charts don’t lie.” is his chant.

    Ironically, he also believes that ultimately the markets are a “voting machine”.

    The latter view will always carry my day.

    Convincing more investors to “vote” for AAPL is great.

    STAYING convinced is sublime.

    1
    June 30, 2021
  13. David Drinkwater said:
    Stock could go up.
    Stock could go down.
    Stock could stay the same.

    Apple will be fine.

    PS Fie on stock analysis technicians.

    0
    June 30, 2021

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