"The market does not reflect the stickiness of the Apple ecosystem." -- Analyst David Vogt
From a note to clients that landed on my desktop today:
Smartphone survey data more positive for sustainable iPhone demand. UBS Evidence Lab recently surveyed over 7,000 smartphone users in the U.S., U.K., China, Germany, and Japan to gauge smartphone demand. The three key takeaways from the survey pertaining to Apple are
- iPhone 12-month purchase intent increased to 22%, the highest level in 5 years,
- iPhone retention rate reached 86%, the highest level in seven years, and
- Interest in 5G modestly improved, consistent with Apple's view of "the early days of 5G...with a lot of 5G upgrades will be in front of us".
Relative to the prior survey, the data is incrementally more positive for both iPhone and smartphone demand generically while we believe the market does not reflect the stickiness of the Apple ecosystem.
Maintains Buy rating and $155 price target.
My take: UBS' price target is comprised of $141 billion for Apple's core business and $14 billion for the "probability value of Apple's auto opportunity." Vogt is the only analyst I know of who is breaking out the (unannounced) Apple Car business like this.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this item was missing a couple of B for billions.
Below: USB chart shows purchase intent rising in every market but China, where it is flat.