Apple Earnings Smackdown: Final spreadsheet FQ2 2021

Exclusive: The analysts (pros and indies) have placed their bets in advance of today’s March quarter results. The fun starts at 4:30 p.m. Eastern.

First the summary:

apple earnings smackdown q22021 final

Click to enlarge.

Below: The individual analysts’ estimates—as complete, accurate and up-to-date as I can make them, Wall Street professionals in blue, independents in green. Corrections (and filled-in blanks) appreciated, but the window closes at 12 p.m. Eastern.

apple earnings smackdown q22021 final

Tune in after the markets close today for Apple’s official results. I’ll be auditing the call, and you can too. Here’s the webcast link. Subscribers are welcome to comment on the action in the Apple 3.0 Slack.*

Come back Thursday morning for my regular post-earnings analysis: Five Easy Charts, Best and Worst Apple Analysts and What the Analysts Are Saying.

* Don’t know about the Apple 3.0 Slack? E-mail me at ped@ped30.com with Slack in the subject line. Subscribers only, please.

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20 Comments

  1. Dan Scropos said:
    Wall Street will be hyper focused on whether or not Apple plans on issuing guidance, and I hope they do not. I’ll take a short term downturn in the stock for the overall, long-term benefit.

    My very unprofessional model of earnings is $1.18.

    Last, will be the capital authorization program update, and I expect nothing less than $75 billion. $50 billion will not work at the current rate of buybacks and increasing free cash flow.

    11
    April 28, 2021
    • Bart Yee said:
      Dan, you mentioned many times you believed Revenue would be $80+B. Could you give your best revenue estimate for comparison? $81.00B isn’t taken by anyone in the table.

      1
      April 28, 2021
        • Bart Yee said:
          Understood, I just pulled a whole number above $80B out of the hat.

          1
          April 28, 2021
      • Dan Scropos said:
        My best guess was ~$83-$85 billion. They obliterated even that. The gross margin is shocking, but Services obviously killed it. That number is staggering. They all are, really.

        2
        April 28, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      INCREDIBLE. APPLE REPORTS ANOTHER BLOWOUT

      3
      April 28, 2021
  2. Romeo A Esparrago Jr said:
    Regardless of direction after today’s quarterly results, it’s all relative like Gregg said in the previous post, and it’s short-term like Downtown Josh Brown ranted in PED’s earlier article.

    AAPL is fissile, exciting everything around it, causing reactions slow & fast in multiple directions, there is some decay but bursts of energy always, and watch out if it splits!

    14
    April 28, 2021
  3. Gregg Thurman said:
    Raj, here’s hoping you are correct.

    5
    April 28, 2021
  4. Bart Yee said:
    Mean Consensus estimates that I found:
    Gross Revenue $76.7B
    EPS $0.98-0.99
    Segments
    $41.40B iPhone
    $5.60B iPad
    $6.80B Mac
    $7.40B Wearables, Home, Access.
    $15.50B Services

    1
    April 28, 2021
  5. Gregg Thurman said:
    Well in just about an hour we’ll know if we’re going to be wearing happy faces, or sad, for the next 90 days. I’m not sure March quarter numbers will be a factor (other than to show Apple’s recent performance is sustainable.

    1
    April 28, 2021
    • Bart Yee said:
      Agree, I think guidance, if any, will be key, and most are starting to look ahead to June Quarter, especially with the new iPad, iMac announcements plus potentially any decision from the Epic trial and potential EU/US attacks on Apple’s business models.

      I think we will be happy with results, but facial expressions for market action won’t be in anyone’s control.

      1
      April 28, 2021
  6. Bart Yee said:
    A few observations comparing Q1 2021 vs Q2 2021 smackdowns:

    13 Independents, missing James Dean this time, welcome to Raj Panday!

    Burgess, Contant, Dediu & Cybart closest to consensus.
    7 (8 if including Scropos) with >$80B+ Revenue estimates, 2 with >$1.20 EPS, 7 above $1.10.

    12 Pros, same group.
    Kumar, Piper Sandler goes from lowest Q1 Rev to highest Q2 Rev.
    Daryanani, Evercore has the most pessimistic estimate vs consensus at -4.8% on Rev, -11% on EPS.
    Ives, despite higher price targets, shows -2.6% on Rev., on par w/EPS.

    4 Pros >$80B+ revenue and none over $1.08 EPS

    iPhones 3 independent 3 Pros above $42B

    1
    April 28, 2021
  7. Mark Visnic said:
    Congrats everyone! Another blow out quarter – back to back!

    3
    April 28, 2021
    • Matthias Neeracher said:
      Interestingly, Hall had excellent estimates on the Mac and Wearables numbers, and decent ones on Services and iPad. So it’s not like he’s terrible at estimating Apple’s sales, he just for some reason derives completely different price targets from them.

      2
      April 28, 2021
      • Bart Yee said:
        @Matthias That’s what is so confounding about Hall, he’s got seemingly accurate data about most of the business segments. On the Pro side, he’s 1st Mac, 2nd iPad, 2nd Wearables, tied for 4th in Services. But he’s dead last in iPhones (off by 30%) which throws off his 4th from last Gross Revenue by 17.2% which really throws off his EPS estimate. For a supposed iPhone counter, IMO, he hasn’t done that very well last quarter. That’s a bigger miss on iPhones than his 9.4% miss for Q1 and Revenue miss by 5.87%.

        And then to interpret his findings (of actual improved growth across the board) and say because of “pressure on Services revenue” sell with a price target of $83 reiterated this last April Fool’s day (how ironic and apropos)? Its astounding how his interpretations are so contrary to the visible direction Apple is heading.

        I suspect he will issue a revised price target in the upper 80’s/low 90’s, saying for Apple, this growth isn’t sustainable, next year’s comps will be brutal, yada yada, and still say SELL.

        https://www.ped30.com/2021/04/01/apple-goldman-services/

        0
        April 28, 2021
  8. Daniel Epstein said:
    I am more impressed by the earnings report than the Market reaction. Wow on most categories. 90 Billion buyback is big. Dividend increase a little smaller than some thought it would be but somehow not surprising.

    2
    April 28, 2021

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