But he believes Apple will come to market with high-end mixed reality goggles in 2022, followed by more mainstream AR glasses in 2025.
From “Apple Readies to Pioneer AR Evolution” mailed Saturday to Loup Ventures subscribers:
One of the challenges with building investor excitement around the AR theme is there are only a handful of compelling uses today. We have seen this investor skepticism before, like when the App Store was launched and most investors felt the platform would be relegated to applications that enhanced existing features on the phone, such as the alarm clock.
Another example is when Apple Watch was released, most viewed it as having limited functionality, and a convenient way to read text messages. The slow ramp in the App Store and Watch functionality taught us that increasing the utility of these devices is in the hands of developers. That’s good news for Apple, given their developer community is flourishing with some 2m apps in the App Store, and those professionals are looking for new ways to add products on future Apple devices.
Below are a few examples of AR applications driven by the phone today:
-
- Pokemon Go (gaming)
- IKEA Place (retail)
- Wayfair (retail)
- Warby Parker (retail)
- Lens Studio (Snap)
Unfortunately, given AR hardware remains limited to phones today, it’s impossible for us to outline the applications developers will build on what will eventually be AR wearables.
My take: That’s a short, uninspiring list.
What happens to that list when you have more robust AR capabilities and a couple thousand developers (thinking different) working on it?
When you think about the App Store and the runway for future health apps, you cannot help but get excited. Take a look at both the charges incurred and how much they are the next time you visit the doctor. Not what you pay, but what they really charge. Then ask if that particular segment is ready for disruption. Then think about Tim Cook’s comments about Apple being remembering for their contribution to health.
Which is where Apple will ultimately take this investment.
Apple already has 3D effects on flat screens. Might we see 3D cameras on iPhones?
3D effects do not require goggles or other immersive devices. 3D enhancements can fit into our daily lives and leverage the 1,500,000,000 flat screens in Apple IB.
3D enhancements driving upgrades over the next 5 years makes a nice uptick to any DCF model.