From a note to clients by analyst Rod Hall that landed on my desktop Tuesday:
Q4 PC units grew 26% Y/Y due to improving supply in the midst of a continued strong WFH [work from home] environment. HP lost share due to supply constraints, while Apple grew slightly faster than the market driven in part by its new M1 Macs. Looking ahead, we expect this general PC strength to persist into H1 but weaken in H2 driven by reopening as well as tougher comps.
- Q4 units blow-out. Total units at 89.7m (+26% Y/Y) beat our estimate by 21%, with Consumer PCs (+27% Y/Y) beating our estimate by 18% and Commercial units (+25% Y/Y) beating our estimate by 24%. We believe the beat was driven mainly by continued higher spending due to remote working and remote learning as well as improving supply. We note that PC vendors have called out increased government funding globally during the pandemic to purchase PCs and tablets for schools to enable remote learning…
- HP loses share, Apple gains. HP revenue rose 6% Y/Y, lower than market growth of 26% Y/Y to end up with market share of 18%, down 3pp Y/Y. Dell revenue rose 26% Y/Y to maintain its share of 17%, while Lenovo revenue rose 24% Y/Y, holding its share at 23%. Apple rose 35% Y/Y to end up with a share of 15% (emphasis mine), up 1pp Y/Y though we note that M1 Macs were likely in short supply in the quarter.
My take: When your estimates get beaten by 21%, 18% and 24%, respectively, you’re probably doing something wrong.