“Q4 IDC results point to robust 5G demand, Apple share gains from Huawei, record notebook shipments” — Analyst Katy Huberty
From a note to clients that landed on my desktop early Friday:
Q4 results show Apple share gains on the back of Huawei weakness. In the December quarter, Huawei’s global unit share declined 6.5 points Y/Y, and it lost share in all regions. Huawei lost the greatest market share in China (13.4 points), which led to share gain opportunities for other vendors. Apple was the largest beneficiary from Huawei weakness in China, gaining 5 points of share Y/Y, followed by Xiaomi (+4.4 points), OPPO (+2.9 points), Vivo (+1.4 points), and Samsung (+0.3 points) (Exhibit 3). While Huawei switchers are most likely to gravitate to another Android based offering, Apple’s strong market share gains in regions where Huawei lost the largest share, such as China and EMEA, suggests Apple is likely gaining switchers from Huawei. Overall, Apple increased unit share in all regions and gained 3.4 points globally (Exhibit 4). The largest gain was in North America, where market share was up 8 points Y/Y, reflecting the strength of the iPhone 12 product cycle in the US…
In PCs, record notebook shipments drove strongest demand in over 2 decades. … Apple was the largest PC unit share gainer in 2020, gaining 80 bps Y/Y, however, its unit share of 7.7% remains low compared to Lenovo at 23.8%, HPQ at 22.2%, and Dell at 16.2% (Exhibit 8). While the gap narrows on a revenue share basis, Apple still ranks 4th behind these vendors. This reflects commentary from management that Apple still has room to penetrate the PC market, which they hope to achieve through their M1 lineup, and we are encouraged by these early share gains. HPQ was the largest share loser (down 1 points Y/Y), but still maintained the 2nd highest unit share at 22.2%, and Dell lost 70 bps of share Y/Y.
Maintains Overweight rating and $164 price target.
My take: Compare and contrast to Goldman Sachs’ Rod Hall (Sell, $83).
Cue the exhibits: