1 year agoThe professionals I’ve heard from so far expect Apple to beat last year’s Q1 results in every category — by roughly 13% on the top and bottom lines.
Click to enlarge. Corrections appreciated.
Full spreadsheet — including indies — Thursday morning.
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The EPS whisper # is quite a bit higher than my # in awhile. Frankly, I think people are a tad too optimistic this time. But without guidance, it’s going to be interesting to see how iPhones report after a delayed start. Tim and Luca said their would be growth in iPhones, but double-digits? Methinks not.
I’ve sent you his note. Feel free to check.
Ives seems to be taking a conservative Q1 2021 growth estimate for all segments, being under consensus for all except Wearables. What gave me pause was his conservative Gross revenue of $100.21 (“only” 9% growth) and a Pro low of $1.23 EPS. I looked hard to determine what caused this. Near as I can figure, Ives models a drop in overall gross margin from 38.2% down to 35.3%, probably assigning much of that to iPhone & hardware production/revenues overriding higher services margins. In turn, that drops his estimated pro-forma EPS to $1.23, a YOY drop from $1.26. The gross margin drop seems inconsistent with Luca’s comments on Gross Margins from Q4 earnings calls but I suppose the ramped up iPhone production calls could account for additional costs that would carry revenue over into Q2.
Interestingly, Ives himself suggests that Q1 earnings will be very good (maybe above his estimates) but he’s modeling further revenue gains into Q2-Q3 and carrying into Q4. I just thought his Q1 estimates rather modest given his enthusiasm for the business execution and his Supercycle thesis. But we are in the early innings of a long game where Apple’s strengths are quite evident.
Huberty is far more bullish with her #s this quarter. But frankly, her big-picture analysis of Apple is better than her earnings predictions. I hope her earnings #s land this time, of course.
“In fact, through mid-September, customer demand for our current product lineup grew double digits and was well above our expectations.”
Reports claim demand for the iPhone is high prompting Apple to allegedly increase production in early 2021 to a level that’s supposedly 30% higher than iPhone orders one year prior. I do think we are going to be surprised by numbers carried over into Q2.
aaplmodel dot blogspot dot com/2021/01/fiscal-1q-2021-final-estimates.html#more
Like I’ve said elsewhere March quarter revenue is not going to drop historic 30% from Dec results and will be another record breaking quarter.