Handicapping Apple’s earnings: Fiscal Q1 2021

Apple didn’t offer Wall Street any formal guidance last quarter, so the analysts’ best guesses are the best we have.

The professionals I’ve heard from so far expect Apple to beat last year’s Q1 results in every category — by roughly 13% on the top and bottom lines.

Apple handicapping q12021

Click to enlarge. Corrections appreciated.

Full spreadsheet — including indies — Thursday morning.

17 Comments

  1. Adam Foster said:
    Apple didn’t Wall Street any formal guidance last quarter
    “provide”

    0
    January 26, 2021
  2. Dan Scropos said:
    $115 billion and $1.57-$1.61.

    0
    January 26, 2021
  3. Dan Scropos said:
    Does anyone else find iPhone revenue estimates extremely low? I’m modeling ~84-86 million at $825 or ~ $69 to $71 billion. And even that might be a bit light on unit sales *and* ASP.

    1
    January 26, 2021
    • Troy Thoman said:
      I think your ASP might be fine, but phone production couldn’t support 84 mil in a Q without time to ramp up… I think that Q2 gets that extra unit volume, but I do think people are under estimating the EPS impacts of selling 60% of their units overseas and the weaker dollar over Q1.

      1
      January 26, 2021
      • Jerry Doyle said:
        @Troy Thoman: “….I think that Q2 gets that extra unit volume, ….”.

        Reports claim demand for the iPhone is high prompting Apple to allegedly increase production in early 2021 to a level that’s supposedly 30% higher than iPhone orders one year prior. I do think we are going to be surprised by numbers carried over into Q2.

        0
        January 26, 2021
        • Troy Thoman said:
          They also apparently converted some production capacity from the iPhone mini to the iPhone pro, so ASPs should be good. Bas has also mentioned his online shop’s ASP has been rising significantly.

          0
          January 26, 2021
  4. Gregg Thurman said:
    Foxconn and others are offering incentives to employees for not going home for the New Year. In addition to the time lost for the holidays, when they return they have to quarantine for 2 weeks. Foxconn is describing the request as safety oriented. I think it has more to do with addressing iPhone back orders

    Like I’ve said elsewhere March quarter revenue is not going to drop historic 30% from Dec results and will be another record breaking quarter.

    0
    January 26, 2021

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