Got a detailed Apple model? Ready to compete with the pros? First prize is a one-year subscription to Apple 3.0 (now a $200 value).
To spread the fun—and replenish my supply of independent analysts—I’m once again opening up my quarterly revenue contest to all subscribers. The form below is the request I’m sending to the professional analysts tonight:
Fiscal Q1 2021:
Total revenue:
EPS:
Revenue by segment:
iPhone:
iPad:
Mac:
Services:
Wearables/Home/Accessories:
Gross margin on total revenue:
Date of estimate (if different from email):
First prize goes to the analyst (pro or independent) whose estimates for Apple’s top and bottom lines are nearest to the mark. Results come out Jan. 27, winners posted the next day.
Note: J.P. Morgan’s Samik Chatterjee and Daniel Tello of Deagol’s AAPL Model won prizes last quarter. See here.
See also Apple 3.0 Best-and-Worst-Analysts archives
Total revenue: $103.2 bill
EPS: $5.24
Revenue by segment:
iPhone: $61 bill
iPad: $7.5 bill
Mac: $9.5 bill
Services: $15.5 bill
Wearables/Home/Accessories: $9.7 bill
Gross margin on total revenue: 38.8%
Date of estimate (if different from email): 1/12/21
EPS 5.18
Phone 62.18 B
iPad 8.1 B
Mac 9.7 B
Services 14.9 B
Other Wearables etc 10.1 B
GM 39.1
EPS: $1.49
iPhone: $61.45
iPad: $7,482
Mac: $9,151
Services: $15,045
Wearables, Home and Accessories: $11.450
Total gross margin percentage 38.0%
I channeled my inner Rod Hall and went the other direction.
My estimate, posted the day after OCT earnings report, is close to being overtaken by estimize.com consensus. Generally speaking my estimates are higher, and closer to actual, than estimize consensus.
I say be bold and keep it intact as I’ll be beyond happy to be real wrong.
EPS 1.31
Phone 62.18 B
iPad 8.1 B
Mac 9.7 B
Services 14.9 B
Other Wearables etc 10.1 B
GM 39.1