Inviting friends-of-the-blog to Apple’s Q1 2021 Earnings Smackdown

Got a detailed Apple model? Ready to compete with the pros? First prize is a one-year subscription to Apple 3.0 (now a $200 value).

To spread the fun—and replenish my supply of independent analysts—I’m once again opening up my quarterly revenue contest to all subscribers. The form below is the request I’m sending to the professional analysts tonight:

Fiscal Q1 2021:
Total revenue:
EPS:
Revenue by segment:
iPhone:
iPad:
Mac:
Services:
Wearables/Home/Accessories:
Gross margin on total revenue:

Date of estimate (if different from email):

First prize goes to the analyst (pro or independent) whose estimates for Apple’s top and bottom lines are nearest to the mark. Results come out Jan. 27, winners posted the next day.

Note: J.P. Morgan’s Samik Chatterjee and Daniel Tello of Deagol’s AAPL Model won prizes last quarter. See here.

See also Apple 3.0 Best-and-Worst-Analysts archives

15 Comments

  1. Troy Thoman said:
    Fiscal Q1 2021:
    Total revenue: $103.2 bill
    EPS: $5.24
    Revenue by segment:
    iPhone: $61 bill
    iPad: $7.5 bill
    Mac: $9.5 bill
    Services: $15.5 bill
    Wearables/Home/Accessories: $9.7 bill
    Gross margin on total revenue: 38.8%

    Date of estimate (if different from email): 1/12/21

    2
    January 12, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      WoW. That’s a huge EPS estimate. Hoping you’re right.

      1
      January 12, 2021
      • Troy Thoman said:
        Massive Chinese iPhone sales + lower value of the dollar = huge margins/EPS (hopefully)

        1
        January 12, 2021
    • Troy Thoman said:
      Just realized I posted a pre-split EPS… I meant $1.31

      0
      January 12, 2021
      • Troy Thoman said:
        Now I’m thinking $1.31 is way low, I’m going with $1.49

        0
        January 12, 2021
  2. James Dean said:
    Revenue 102.68
    EPS 5.18
    Phone 62.18 B
    iPad 8.1 B
    Mac 9.7 B
    Services 14.9 B
    Other Wearables etc 10.1 B
    GM 39.1

    1
    January 12, 2021
  3. Michael Goldfeder said:
    Total Revenue: $104.57
    EPS: $1.49
    iPhone: $61.45
    iPad: $7,482
    Mac: $9,151
    Services: $15,045
    Wearables, Home and Accessories: $11.450

    Total gross margin percentage 38.0%

    I channeled my inner Rod Hall and went the other direction.

    0
    January 12, 2021
    • Bart Yee said:
      @Michael Good choices. Oddly (or maybe not), in last quarter’s contest, Rod Hall came in a very close 3rd just 0.8% off in Rev+EPS, yet when you add in all the other segment estimates, he drops to 12th/21 just ahead of me. Why his price targets are so out of whack is still a mystery (Oct. 30 contest AAPL close 108.86, today 128.80, a rise of 18.3%). Meanwhile Rod’s target remains at $75. Shows you can have mostly correct data but interpretation is the key.

      1
      January 12, 2021
  4. Gregg Thurman said:
    I may have to rethink my revenue estimates for the December quarter.

    My estimate, posted the day after OCT earnings report, is close to being overtaken by estimize.com consensus. Generally speaking my estimates are higher, and closer to actual, than estimize consensus.

    2
    January 12, 2021
  5. Michael Goldfeder said:
    @Troy: I really like your original EPS # of $5.24, as I’m sure everyone who owns Apple does, and am willing to pay for your 2021 Apple 3.0 subscription if you’re anywhere close to that number when the Q1 report is announced by Apple.

    I say be bold and keep it intact as I’ll be beyond happy to be real wrong.

    1
    January 12, 2021
  6. Michael Goldfeder said:
    @Bart: I’m hoping all of my numbers are too low. Thanks for the positive comment.

    1
    January 13, 2021
  7. James Dean said:
    Revenue 104.98
    EPS 1.31
    Phone 62.18 B
    iPad 8.1 B
    Mac 9.7 B
    Services 14.9 B
    Other Wearables etc 10.1 B
    GM 39.1

    0
    January 16, 2021

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