Analyst: Apple’s worst-selling iPhone 12 will outsell Samsung’s best

From Wccftech’s “Each iPhone 12 Model Will Outpace Entire Galaxy S21 Lineup in Volume for First Three Months, Says Display Analyst” posted Sunday:

Ross Young, who has garnered 25 years of experience in the display industry, believes that each iPhone 12 model is expected to do more volume in their first three months than the entire Galaxy S21 family. This little statement implies that even the iPhone 12 mini, which is Apple’s worst-performing model out of all four right now, is expected to accumulate more shipments than all Galaxy S21 members.

So far, a part of the iPhone 12’s success lies in the less 6.1-inch version’s popularity, which became the best-selling 5G-ready model for October 2020. Part of why it’s likely doing well is not just the attractive pricing, but it features a 5G modem, which is necessary to have in the world of fast-moving data. Samsung is making significant efforts to convince iPhone users that its Galaxy S21 series is a better purchase. A previous leak revealed the company is accepting up to $700 trade-in value for the iPhone 12 mini to get any Galaxy S21 model.

That’s the retail price of a brand new iPhone 12 mini. That’s not all, because pre-order bonuses for customers include up to a brand new pair of Galaxy Buds Pro and Smart Tags. Many freebies and hefty trade-in bonuses indicate that Samsung could be desperate to increase Galaxy S21 adoption amongst customers. Whether or not these plans have a positive outcome for the Korean giant, we’ll have to see after the first three months have passed.

My take: Ross Young is not an analyst I know.

9 Comments

  1. Fred Stein said:
    Desperate. And illustrative.

    When people claim that iPhones are premium priced, it is only because some Android vendors get caught with excess inventory that they have dump at fire sale prices.

    2
    January 11, 2021
  2. Bart Yee said:
    The problem for Samsung is they want to be a premium market success but their premium Android paying base has been siphoned off by either Apple, less expensive Chinese brands, and the general shrinkage of Android buyers willing to pay the freight Samsung is asking. Hence Samsung’s desperate entreaties to Apple users who will pay (for Apple products) and ever more desperate earlier product introductions and ultimately erosion of any pricing power of their flagships by their own hand through discounts, bundles of freebies, and heavy “marketing” costs (trade-in values, BOGO’s, drastic sales promotions).

    Samsung’s GS20 Series purportedly sold poorly throughout the year as their unfortunate Feb. 2020 rollout coincided with the pandemic becoming global. It may have partially recovered by late summer only to be blasted even by the late iPhone introductions.

    2
    January 11, 2021
  3. Gregg Thurman said:
    I saw a similar dynamic occur during the 1990s in the CPE telecom industry.

    There were 3 tiers of vendors, Small (up to 20 employees), Medium (21 to 80 employees) and large (over 80 employees). By the end of the ’90s the mid-tier was nearly extinct, having been squeezed between the smaller firms with lower overhead and larger firms with greater resources and expertise. The smaller firms sold on price, the large firms sold on quality, service and stability.

    The mid-tier firms couldn’t compete with the smaller firms on price, and they couldn’t compete with the larger firms on quality, service and stability.

    In cellular there are essentially two types of customers: those sensitive to price and those desiring quality products and service.

    Right now I see Samsung, no matter its overall size, as being a mid-tier cellular manufacturer that is being squeezed between Chinese low-price manufacturers and Apple’s premium products.

    Given how Samsung has made its bones with a rapid copy ethos I say good riddance.

    1
    January 11, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      Where Samsung’s strategy is flawed is that you can’t offer both premium and low price versions of the same product. In cellular there are only two offerings: Android and iOS.

      In the Android marketplace you have a myriad of vendors competing against themselves on price with essentially the same product. In the iOS marketplace you have ONE vendor competing, not with itself, but against Android vendors.

      In the Android marketplace you have a myriad of vendors competing against themselves for a price sensitive consumer. In the iOS marketplace you have ONE vendor competing, not with itself, but against Android vendors for premium consumers desiring quality of product and service.

      In the Android marketplace you have a myriad of vendors competing against themselves with a fragmented ecosystem. In the iOS marketplace you have ONE vendor competing, not with itself, but against Android vendors for premium consumers desiring quality of product and service.

      Samsung, unable to differentiate its products as either low cost or premium, will slowly fade into obscurity in the cellular marketplace, squeezed by low cost Chinese vendors and Apple’s premium iPhone.

      2
      January 11, 2021
  4. Jerry Doyle said:
    Samsung seems in a race to the bottom in margins in its drive to remain relevant as an alternative worthy competitor to Apple. That strategy usually never pays off long term.

    1
    January 11, 2021
  5. bas flik said:
    agree on this. S21 will be their last change to catch up. i don’t think this will happen.
    Samsung is better off as a supplier of parts to Apple.

    4
    January 11, 2021
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      Samsung is better off as a supplier of parts to Apple.

      What is ironic is that, as a supplier of components to Apple, Apple is Samsung’s best customer for high end components. Not even Samsung’s own handsets consume more.

      0
      January 11, 2021
  6. Fred Stein said:
    It’s really about the chip and chip manufacturing.

    Now that Apple makes the best chips, with TSMC’s process which beats Samsung’s, NO Android maker can offer a premium product with decent margins.

    It’s over, caput, race to bottom.

    1
    January 11, 2021
  7. Look to the SOX for optimism today. Up ~4%. An index from my hometown, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Sector Index includes 30 key firms. Several funds follow SOXX. I use the index to follow/invest in specific Apple component manufacturers.

    0
    January 11, 2021

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