In other words, grow the market for all cars while shrinking the market for gas guzzlers.
From a note to clients by auto analyst Adam Jonas that landed on my desktop earlier just before the holidays:
- Prior to the iPhone, the global mobile phone market was 1.0 billion units in 2006. Apple announced the iPhone in January 2007 and launched it on July 29th 2007. By 2010, the global mobile phone market was 1.6 billion units. By 2014 it was 2.0 billion units. [See featured image.]
- We currently forecast global BEV [battery electric vehicle] sales to grow at a 28% CAGR [compound annual growth rate] through 2030 driving our 31% BEV penetration forecast by 2030. This is BEFORE considering a potential Apple product. What would it be when including it?
My take: Let’s hope Apple doesn’t double the market for cars. Who needs more parking lots and traffic jams, no matter what the filling stations serve up?
BONUS: From Jonas’ Q&A with a “longtime dealer principal”…
Jonas: “I’ve been speaking with some dealers recently who say that the repair work on EVs is similar to ICEs and that it’s neutral impact..”
Dealer Principal: “Yeah, whatever. The car has 1/3 of the moving parts. I mean, come on.”
Jonas: “When do you think dealers will actually start feeling the EV impact in their business in a major way?”
Dealer Principal: “I think by 2030 we’ll be feeling it big time. From the dealer’s perspective it’s gonna be like boiling a frog. Guys can deny it all day long and stick their head in the sand but this isn’t going to change. And the OEMs are behind a lot of these startups and they want to carve out the electric vehicles from the franchise laws so they can go direct.”
Jonas: “Are you starting to smell this sentiment from the OEMs?”
Dealer Principal: “Yeah I’m smelling it. Maybe not from the likes of Toyota, but from the other manufacturers absolutely. Anybody who doesn’t think that is in La-La Land.”
Jonas: “Am I wrong in thinking that when startups go direct to consumer that the flood gates could open?”
Dealer Principal: “Once it breaks, it’s done. I think it’s in the next couple of years if not imminent under a Biden administration. The lobby is not strong enough anymore and regulators will look at the current system as anti- consumer.”