Guess which 5G iPhone was Apple's bestseller in October

If you thought it was the model with the longest wait times you, would have been wrong.

From Counterpoint Research's "iPhone 12 Becomes World’s #1 5G Model Within Two Weeks of Launch" posted Monday:

The iPhone 12 became the world’s best-selling 5G smartphone model in October despite a delayed launch, which resulted in only two weeks of sales during the month. The iPhone 12 Pro, which was also launched alongside the iPhone 12, was the second best-selling 5G model for the month, according to Counterpoint Research’s monthly Market Pulse Service. The iPhone 12 and 12 Pro together captured close to one-fourth of the total 5G smartphone sales in October.

apple iphone bestseller counterpoint

My take: So much for all those analysts who spent October tracking shipping dates for the iPhone 12 Pro.

39 Comments

  1. Kirk DeBernardi said:
    Did someone say mindshare?

    2
    December 21, 2020
  2. David Emery said:
    Which phone was cited as “a model too many” by one of the ANALysts?

    6
    December 21, 2020
  3. Gregg Thurman said:
    Installed base. ‘Nuff said.

    1
    December 21, 2020
  4. Jerry Doyle said:
    If I am interpreting Gregg’s T comment correctly, then I wonder the degree of percentage of new iPhone 12s went to former Android users leaving their Android crap behind. I’m confident to interpret this new data that Apple’s IB is increasing at the expense of Androids.

    1
    December 21, 2020
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      I think two dynamics are occurring with iPhones installed base.

      #1 a large chuck has finally got old enough that the reluctant upgrades is buying a replacement (to be held for 5-6 years) and,

      #2 another chunk is enticed to upgrade for any number of reasons.

      There will be a degree of Android switchers, as there always is, I just don’t have a handle on the percentage of sales that will be.

      0
      December 21, 2020
      • Robert Paul Leitao said:
        Gregg: The average age of an iPhone is service is gradually dropping from a four-year peak. Carrier promotions have been aggressive at the start of the model year and trade-in values are attractive at this time. One other factor is the delayed upgrade cycle by iPhone owners who took advantage of the battery replacement offer a while back.

        3
        December 21, 2020
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:
      Jerry: I wouldn’t worry about Android. Apple’s biggest competitors are time and the pace of innovation. More important than market share is the pace of Services attachment. Certainly Apple is picking up market share. However, the introduction of the iPhone 12 models was a bit later this year so there’s also the function of pent-up demand.

      1
      December 21, 2020
      • David Emery said:
        A lot of my friends with Androids just don’t like Apple. It’s unlikely any Apple phone, no matter how superior, would break through that prejudice. That’s OK, it’s their loss. I don’t need Apple to make everyone’s phones. I just need them to make the best phones….

        4
        December 21, 2020
  5. Jerry Doyle said:
    “…. Going forward, the demand for the iPhone 12 series is likely to remain strong through Q4 2020, especially during the festive season in December. Strong sales for Apple will also drive the volumes in the premium segment, raising the global ASP. Due to the late launch, some of the sales will be pushed to subsequent months, thus maintaining the momentum of the iPhone 12 series in early 2021 as well.”

    Virum Misha seems to have a good perspective on Apple’s iPhone line-up. We will know more and have a clearer perspective on Apple’s four new models when we hear the Q2 2021 financial results on the April call.

    1
    December 21, 2020
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:
      Jerry: There’s no question about demand. Apple won’t reach supply-demand equilibrium until well into the March quarter (which begins on Sunday) and it’s likely the company won’t reach the target range for channel supply until well into January.

      3
      December 21, 2020
  6. Fred Stein said:
    Grade school arithmetic:

    With only 2 models Apple captured 25% of 5G sales, 50% of the last 2 weeks.

    2
    December 21, 2020
  7. Michael Goldfeder said:
    Once the iPhone 12 Pro Max hits its stride after the delayed launch, I expect that it will break that two-week record in short order. I say this with total confidence after seeing a news report from the production zone where it’s being assembled with drone footage showing a much larger gathering of food trucks and street vendors present outside that facility since daybreak.

    No doubt many analysts will be refuting this story by saying either: it means nothing as people need to have options for lunch; or they stand behind their elongated delivery analysis. Either way, the only serious competition to the Apple iPhone 12 is another variant of the 5G models.

    I say this in total jest as no doubt some innovative analyst will determine that the number of food trucks or street vendors will become the new baseline as the very best blueprint for predicting the future success of Apple’s various iPhones.

    3
    December 21, 2020
    • Bart Yee said:
      Types and numbers of food trucks undoubtedly correlate with the same analysts who cited the level of air pollution over cities and towns with iPhone production. Exactly what type of air pollution is unclear since they likely don’t have taco trucks like here in Los Angeles and California. I’m sure at one time they had sonic sensors to detect, uh, gaseous eminations and plumbing use.

      Perhaps they should be watching the number of outgoing heavily loaded transport trucks heading to export hubs (pretty sure its now all air transport as everything else is too slow) instead?

      0
      December 21, 2020
      • Gregg Thurman said:
        Perhaps they should be watching the number of outgoing heavily loaded transport trucks heading to export hubs (pretty sure it is now all air transport as everything else is too slow) instead?

        Watching transports would require 24-hour surveillance. The number of food trucks would provide equivalent analysis with a snapshot.

        1
        December 21, 2020
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      drone footage showing a much larger gathering of food trucks and street vendors present outside that facility since daybreak.

      It takes X number of workers to support a single food truck.

      I like this approach, it equates to Bayesian Statistical Analysis (named after Reverend Thomas Bayes, who first put forth the concept).

      The first time I ran into Bayes Statistical Analysis was from a family member (USAF Military Intelligence) assigned to work with the CIA. The case was an assignment to determine how many Cuban soldiers were stationed in Africa during its civil war strife. The methodology used to determine that number was to count the number of baseball fields, as Cubans are fanatical about baseball.

      Comparing the number of fields to the number on Army bases in Cuba, and knowing the number of troops at the Cuban bases, a determination of the number of Cuban soldiers in Africa could be made. Later analysis determined that the number of Cuban troops in Africa came within several hundred in the Bayesian analysis.

      2
      December 21, 2020
      • Michael Goldfeder said:
        @ Gregg Thurman: ” The methodology used to determine that number was to count the number of baseball fields, as Cubans are fanatical about baseball.”

        No doubt someone extremely astute, like Goldman Sachs Rod Hall, would have asked at the briefing: Did the baseball analysis for the Cubans take into account the American League DH (Designated Hitter)?

        4
        December 21, 2020
  8. Chris Ferebee said:
    Excellent showing for the iPhone 12 Pro, which offers users an opportunity to pay a clearly visible extra $200—it’s hard not to notice the third camera—for subtle feature upgrades, leaving the Pro Max to bring in additional dollars from those who truly need or want the best camera.
    Since flopping with the iPhone 5c, Apple’s product positioning has come to rival the poise of the best luxury brands.

    4
    December 21, 2020
  9. David Baraff said:
    Totally OT: Trying to see what was responsible for the late-session jump, and AH increase, and am seeing something about a rumored car release by Apple in 2024?

    2
    December 21, 2020
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:
      David: There were reports late in the trading session Apple plans to release a car in the 2024 timeframe with “breakthrough” battery technology. Tesla dropped hard in the final hour of trading but is staging a partial recovery in AH trading.

      2
      December 21, 2020
      • Robert Paul Leitao said:
        Thank you, Bart! The article is definitely worth the read. Anyone have a gauge how far ahead of production Apple needs to effectively “freeze” the market to create pent-up demand to support large scale volume? In other words, is this a “perfectly timed” story?

        2
        December 21, 2020
      • Jerry Doyle said:
        @Bart Yee: The article said nothing on where I may send my deposit. Does anyone know? 🙂

        2
        December 21, 2020
  10. Michael Goldfeder said:
    AH Apple has been up as much as $3.55. Volume is headed over ten million based on how this “car” news is hitting the market.

    2
    December 21, 2020
  11. David Baraff said:
    Man, suckers are born every minute it seems. Especially after hours. “Break-through car battery technology?” Really? Come on, try a more credible rumor.

    I mean, come on:
    Phone guys are not going to just figure this out.
    They’re not going to just walk in.

    6
    December 21, 2020
    • Mark Visnic said:
      Dude. It’s a HARDWARE company.

      3
      December 21, 2020
    • Dan Scropos said:
      Apple’s next gen battery ambitions date back at least 5 years. This is hardly a surprise (to me).

      1
      December 21, 2020
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      Sarcasm noted. RIP Blackberry.

      1
      December 21, 2020
  12. Bart Yee said:
    For those wondering about batteries, let’s connect a few more dots. Some people have poo poo’ed Apple commitment to renewable energy and neutral carbon footprint for itself and its supply chain. In 2018, they had over 625MW of renewable energy with up to 1.4GW capacity total coming online. They have secured commitments of 4GW of supplier energy projects to hit 2020 goals and another 4GW to hit 2030 carbon neutral goals.

    https://www.apple.com/environment/pdf/Apple_Supplier_Clean_Energy_Program_Update_2020.pdf

    https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2018/04/apple-now-globally-powered-by-100-percent-renewable-energy/

    An example:
    “Apple Park, Apple’s new headquarters in Cupertino, is now the largest LEED Platinum-certified office building in North America. It is powered by 100 percent renewable energy from multiple sources, including a 17-megawatt onsite rooftop solar installation and four megawatts of biogas fuel cells, and controlled by a microgrid with battery storage. It also gives clean energy back to the public grid during periods of low occupancy.” – Like during a pandemic?

    So we can see Apple’s been at this for almost a decade.
    Cont.

    0
    December 22, 2020
    • Bart Yee said:
      So what is the biggest issue with solar and wind power? How do you Store the excess for later demand when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing? Batteries, lots and lots of batteries. And like everyone, they at first had to settle for lead acid, nickel metal hydride, then maybe Lithium Ion variants like what Tesla and the “automotive” sector was hunting. Gee, you think Apple would settle for the status quo? Hell no!! Such a technological limit is ripe R&D stuff, not only for its storage needs, but maybe miniaturized for mobile products, scaled for civil and industrial uses, and maybe optimized for electric vehicle use – power density, lighter weight, charge/discharge capability, relative ease of manufacture and recycling, scalability for cars, trucks, big rigs, maybe more.

      Takes materials science, engineering, testing, iteration, power control and management, etc. etc. plus with over 70 company suppliers, you get a fair share of partners who contribute know how (including a number of current battery makers). Any wonder then that Apple just might have potential hands on breakthroughs that serve so many noble and business purposes?

      0
      December 22, 2020
    • Bart Yee said:
      Wall Street, you have always gotten it wrong, and it was always there in front of you in Apple’s mission statements throughout the years.

      Here’s my definition:

      “Apple is a “disruption” company, focused upon creating the best, most meaningful and innovative solutions for individuals and the collective lives of this planet.”

      Battery breakthroughs, while a core and basic technology, would enable huge advances in renewable power grids, home solar expansion, continued electric vehicle growth, and decreased reliance on fossil fuel combustion for transportation and energy production, leading to reduced carbon footprints and potential climate change mitigation.

      Can it be done? Long range goals bring long range work, innovation, and potential success. If anyone can, it may be Apple. Never bet against Apple in the long run.

      0
      December 22, 2020

Leave a Reply