From a note to clients by analyst Rod Hall that landed on my desktop Sunday:
Q3 PC units rose 18% Y/Y due to what we see as continued demand pull-forward driven by work-from-home and online learning. We note FY’20 is the second successive year of notable PC unit growth in a replacement driven market where we see long term trends as flattish at best.
While near-term demand indications are strong, we continue to be cautious on PC demand looking into FY’21 as COVID driven replacement acceleration begins to wane and comps get more difficult. We also note the large shift in disposable income away from travel and out-of-home leisure activities toward home oriented spending during COVID. We believe that this shift is likely to move in the other direction as vaccine deployment drives re-opening in 2021 and that this shift is likely, in turn, to put incremental pressure on PC demand by the middle of next year...
Apple gained share with revenue rising 50% Y/Y while Dell lost share with revenue rising just 1% Y/Y. Lenovo reclaimed it’s No.1 position even though its Q3 revenue rose only 8% Y/Y while HP lost share with revenue growth of 9% Y/Y. In consumer PCs we believe the large performance upgrade that Macs equipped with Apple’s proprietary M1 SoC enjoy should continue to drive share gains for Apple.
Maintains Sell rating and deep underwater $75 price target.
My take: Take the research, ignore the call.