UBS: Apple iPhone 12 sales in China up 50% over the 11

But in the U.S., demand for the iPhone 12 Pro Max and Pro may have peaked says analyst David Vogt.

From a note to clients that landed on my desktop Monday:

Over the past couple of weeks, the higher-end iPhone 12 model’s continue to experience low availability in China despite being launched on different dates. In China, availability remains tight with the iPhone 12 Pro at ~26 days while the iPhone 12 Pro Max is at ~20 days. We estimate iPhones accounted for roughly 17%- 19% of total smartphone sales in China during the year ago quarter. However, based on our analysis of availability data and checks in China, we believe strength in China could result in almost a 50% year-over-year increase in iPhone units sold in China in the December quarter… But U.S Pro Max and Pro availability suggest demand might have peaked.

Cue Figure 6 (click to enlarge):

Maintains Neutral rating and (soggy) $115 price target.   

My take: FYI, Vogt says his $115 target is based on a 27x multiple on his calendar 2022 EPS estimate of $4.23.


  1. Rodney Avilla said:
    UBS and JP Morgan need to sit down and have a cup of coffee, and maybe chat about China.

    December 14, 2020
  2. David Emery said:
    What “magic 8 ball” does UBS use?

    December 14, 2020
  3. Dan Scropos said:
    The first 2 fiscal quarters could approach an aggregate $3 in earnings. Forex is a huge tailwind for a change, and demand is off the charts. I’ve never seen Apple with a stronger and fresher lineup.

    December 14, 2020
  4. Steven Philips said:
    Vogt just knows how much Rod Hall gets talked about on Apple3.0 and wanted a piece of the action! “Any publicity is good publicity.” ?

    December 14, 2020

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